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Comments 13051 to 13100:
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Josbert Lonnee at 22:35 PM on 23 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
Eclectic @ 139
Interesting!
Do you also mean that the stratosphere intercepts most infrared (as intercepted by the CO2 in it) and the troposphere intercepts it all?
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MA Rodger at 22:11 PM on 23 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
Josbert Lonnee @138,
I am unclear about your reason for presenting your "picture."
There is no need to set up hypothetical situations. The temperature of the lower stratosphere is no different to the temperature of the top of troposphere. All that changes is the reduction of pressure with altitude.
And the CO2 levels don't vary to any significant degree through these altitudes, as these coloured traces of CO2 for altitudes 8km to 18km demonstrate.
As for photons escaping to space, that occurs mainly in the upper troposphere where the IR warming runs along side (and thus is in balance with) warming from atmospheric circulations.
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Eclectic at 20:20 PM on 23 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
Josbert, the relaxation time for a gasseous CO2 molecule is about 10 microseconds. But during that timespan, a CO2 molecule (even in the cold lower statosphere) has roughly 10,000 collisions with neighbouring N2 (or O2) molecules.
If a CO2 molecule does "relax" to emit an IR photon, the photon can travel only a very short distance until it is absorbed by another CO2 molecule. So it is highly likely that the second CO2 molecule will lose this added energy, by collision with a neighbouring N2 (i.e. by warming the nearby air molecules).
As air density decreases, a few IR photons will be able to "miss" CO2 molecules and escape to outer space — in other words, the CO2 in the stratosphere will cool the stratosphere (while the stratosphere is being warmed by the lower atmosphere, which is being warmed from the planet surface by radiation & convection & H2O condensation).
I am unclear on how your ideas fit in with this picture.
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Josbert Lonnee at 14:50 PM on 23 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
MA Rodger @ 137
What if one would isolate a (huge) amount of air from S and make it the same temperature and put it under the same (low) pressure as there.
The theory is not that the time between collisions is (initially) longer between all O2, N2 and CO2 molecules etc. The time is just longer in S than in T because of the lower pressure. Hereby the CO2 concentration is irrelevant.
After a while, after the gas (like in S) cooled down (slightly), there will be (slightly) less molecule collisions. That makes a difference, but for this it needs to cool down first. The theory is just that the CO2 molecules took the kinetic / heat energy out by readiating it out of the isolation.
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Eclectic at 14:30 PM on 23 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Philippe, you make a good point about the "disconnect" of Spencer, and his ilk, in respect of their public opinions and their actual scientific work.
If Dr Spencer contributes to the scientific body of knowledge . . . yet he also sacrifices newborn babies to the god Aeolus [god of climate?] . . . then do we classify him as a mainstream [consensus] scientist, or classify him as an anti-scientist [=denialist] ?
IMO, one needs to have both feet in the scientific camp, to qualify as a 97-percenter.
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Philippe Chantreau at 13:15 PM on 23 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
As I recall, there has been a longstanding disconnect between what Roy Spencer's reseach results show and the opinions he communicates to mass media. One can say that his own research does not really support his opinions. Perhaps that's why he figures as part of the consensus. The consensus is one of results more than opinions. AFAIK, Spencer's peer- reviewed papers do not show anything that deviates significantly from the all the rest of the science.
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Art Vandelay at 13:12 PM on 23 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Eclectic @10, "it would be interesting to hear your reasons for wishing to see a more detailed analysis of climate scientist opinion."
Just curiosity really, because (in my view) the 97% consensus isn't necessarily meaningful if it includes persons with all levels of concern, including almost no concern at all - as is the case with Lindzen & Spencer.
What would be nice to see is a breakdown on level of concern, so that it's immediately apparent what percentage of scientists are: very concerned, reasonably concerned, slightly concerned, etc..
Understanding of course that such a breakdown would probably require some sort of formal survey to be undertaken.
Also of interest would be similar analysis of the opinion of scientists from related disciplines, which could include some earth sciences, physics and mathematics.
Lastly, there does appear to be a correlation with age, with older persons tending to be less concerned about the impacts of climate change, and this appears to hold within the science community too. The implication of this should be an increasing level of consensus over time, even without considering other factors. This of course assumes that a person's level of concern is unlikely to fall with increasing age if it's been established during formative years.
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Eclectic at 11:45 AM on 23 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Art Vandelay @10 , it would be interesting to hear your reasons for wishing to see a more detailed analysis of climate scientist opinion.
Yes, that is a rather separate matter from the perceptions (of the AGW issue) held by politicians and the man in the street.
But we already know the high-90's consensus opinion of mainsteam scientists. The Cook-et-al 97% figure is already more than a decade behind the times [the study published 2013 but based on cumulative figures from early 1990's onwards]. And we know from human nature, that however thoroughly conclusive the scientific evidence is, there will always be a small percentage of scientists & scientifically-literate people who will continue to "deny" the physical realities (for their own reasons of psychological perversity and/or political extremism). So why analyse the last few percent of these? They won't change. Personally, I think Spencer, Curry, Lindzen & similar, do not qualify to be counted in the so-called 97% majority, because their position(s) are not scientifically logical.
What matters is A/ the science itself, which is revealed in the scientific papers published (and you will have noted how "contrarian" papers are becoming rarer and rarer ~ getting close to zero% ~ and far more importantly, the contrarian papers are entirely lacking in valid counterpoints against the mainstream scientific assessment)
. . . and B/ the education of and opinions held by politicians & the general voters.
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Art Vandelay at 09:57 AM on 23 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
One Planet Only Forever @ 9. I take your points but I'm not convinced that any of those forementioned scientists have too much impact on the public's perception of climate change. Very few people I speak to have heard of Roy Spencer, even if they're aware of satellite based temperature measurements, so I would be suprised if his blog is widely read and influential to any significant extent. Most people's attitudes to climate change are derived from their media channels of choice, which to a large extent is determined by their political leanings.
But still, it's anomalous that Spencer is probably included in the 97% along with several other scientists with profiles in the faculties of climate research, which is why I would personally like to see a more detailed analysis of climate scientist opinion.
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MA Rodger at 03:21 AM on 23 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
Josbert Lonnee @136,
Another point? Let us stick with this one. It is surely the most straightforward.
You say the number of collisions stays the same, this presumably collisions per molecule. Your thesis is that a lower pressure in the stratosphere (relative to the troposphere) provides a longer time between collisions, more time for a photon to be emitted and so there will be more photons emitted, the gas will cool more.
But if a molecule takes more time between collisions, how can there be the same number of collisions? Simply, there cannot be!!
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:59 AM on 23 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Art Vandelay@8,
A more important measure than 'grudging acceptance of climate science to a limited degree' is how helpful a person is to improving the more correct awareness and understanding of climate science in the general population and among leadership.
By that measure Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, Richard Lindzen are dismal damaging failures.
As a case in point, I frequently visit Roy Spencer's site (just for the amusement, but in case he actually presents a meaningfully insightful point).
Roy Spencer spends almost all of his time making up stories to refute the need for the burning of fossil fuels to be curtailed. The lack of validity of his story-telling is consistent. He also spends a significant amount of time creating creative ways to intrerpret satellite data in an attempt to refute that unacceptable warming and climate change is happening (he has been forced to partially correct his misinterpretations of the satellite data many times).
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Josbert Lonnee at 01:37 AM on 23 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
MA Rodger @ 135
The number of collisions between molecules stays the same, independent of the concentration of CO2. Only the CO2 molecules are less likely to pass all kinetic energy from collision to collision. So, the mode CO2 is in S, the more energy is radiated away as photons.
I still do not get this point. Do you have another? You suggest you have more points.
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Art Vandelay at 17:27 PM on 22 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
It should be noted too that Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, Richard Lindzen et al, are all painted as skeptics or "deniers", but are in fact members of the 97% consensus.
Perhaps a more valuable statistic would be one that indicated a percentage of (climate) scientists who hold the view that it's a serious threat requiring urgent, universal remedial action.
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Art Vandelay at 08:05 AM on 22 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
nijelj @ 20, "Obviously we do both, but management of forest fires is off topic. We are supposed to be talking about climate change."
I see and hear quite a bit of media commentary - to the effect that "forest fires" is why we should act on climate change.
As if there aren't enough reasons already.
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MA Rodger at 06:53 AM on 22 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
Josbert Lonnee @131,lecules
Mu point is that you are wrong. Your stated hypothesis contains a number of fundamental flaws. I set out just one (and it only requires one).
You say the probability of an excited molecule emitting a photon following a collision is increased by an increased average path-length between collisions (thus your A:B ratio increases). You suggest this increase would increase cooling in S relative to T but you ignore the lower number of collisions that the molecules endure in S relative to T, a consideration which will cancel out your A:B increase.
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nigelj at 04:34 AM on 22 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Art Vandelay @18, fair enough you are not being incoinsistent, some places are having success reducing ignitions. I was being a bit overly suspicious of your comments.
"The question is, do we accept that challenge or do we simply ignore it and focus solely on reducing CO2 emisions?"
Obviously we do both, but management of forest fires is off topic. We are supposed to be talking about climate change.
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John Hartz at 02:45 AM on 22 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Recommended supplemental reading:
California’s wildfires are hardly “natural” — humans made them worse at every step by Umair Irfan, Energy & Environment, Vox, Nov 19, 2018
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Josbert Lonnee at 01:32 AM on 22 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
scaddenp @ 133
Im am not doing any of both. Please, can you, based on the RTEs, tell me why my theory is wrong?
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michael sweet at 23:49 PM on 21 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Rickg,
What could possibly be more detailed than the IPCC report? The 97% consensus is that scientists agree with the IPCC report.
The IPCC report was set up to be very conservative. The consensus position is always reported as the consensus of the minimum risk, not the consensus of the maximum risk. That means sea level rise is reported as several feet when the high end of estimates is several meters.
All the nations of the world, including the Trump administration, have accepted the IPCC reports. What more detail do you think is necessary?
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RickG at 22:46 PM on 21 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
I my view I think the public needs a more specific persentation of just what the 97% consensus is. It is not an opinion or poll of what scientists think about climate change, it is what 97% of the published professional scientific research addressing climate change shows. Note that I said "professional" rather than "peer reviewed". I think that is important because the public doesn't have any idea what the peer review process is and the denial side is quite happy misrepresenting it as a buddy system.
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Art Vandelay at 22:41 PM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
nigelj @ 15: "You say in comment @2 "the actual incidence of ignitions is also increasing," and now you say "but ignitions have actually reduced over the past 20 years thanks to government education programs"
"Which is it? You are not very consistent or convincing".
If you read my posts again you'll find that there's no "inconsistency" at all.
And I would be surprised if there aren't other regions or localities that are also bucking the global trend for similar reasons.
Eclectic @ 14 says, "a small nitpick : California's wildfire risks are influenced by the ongoing rising global CO2 emissions ~ regardless of whether (or not) the USA's emissions have fallen in recent years.
(Of course, reducing local wildfire incidence & severity, is a difficult and expensive task.)"
OK, I confess, your small nitpick was anticipated, and i agree with you of course, on both points.
Reducing the incidence and severity of forest fires will definitely be challenging in many cases, and probably also expensive. The question is, do we accept that challenge or do we simply ignore it and focus solely on reducing CO2 emisions?
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ancient_nerd at 19:05 PM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Southern California has had Santa Ana winds for a long time. However, the conditions seem to be getting more common in northern California over the past few years. We definitely had that weather pattern as the recent Camp fire was getting started. If I recall correctly, last years wine country fires got started under similar conditions. We did not get these every year in the past in northern California.
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ancient_nerd at 16:22 PM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Many of southern California's brush fires get started during the Santa Ana windstorms. The ones that grow past a few acres are almost impossible to stop until the winds die down. A big factor in the severity of these fires is the frequency, duration, and intensity of these windstorms. As a long time resident of California, it seems like we may be seeing an increase in all three parameters. But, I have to wonder if there is any data. It seems difficult to quantify.
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nigelj at 14:55 PM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Art Vandelay @13
Partial clearing is not going to solve the problem, according to this scientific expert.
You say in comment @2 "the actual incidence of ignitions is also increasing," and now you say "but ignitions have actually reduced over the past 20 years thanks to government education programs"
Which is it? You are not very consistent or convincing.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:37 PM on 21 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
This article sparked a clarification of understanding for me.
A logical extension of the Dentist, House, and Airline examples is to consider what the future would be for an Association or Society of Dentists, Home Builders, or Airlines that allows harmful misunderstanding to remain uncorrected. It is obvious that they would be replaced by groups that base their actions on more correct understanding.
And the logical extension of that understanding is that any socioeconomic-political system that fails to curtail the marketing of misunderstanding has no future, is destined to fail.
Tragically, a lot of harm can be done before that failure is undeniably realized. And tragically, the failing system may be damaged beyond correction.
Humanity has successfully developed the understanding of the need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals which include the key Goal of Climate Action (key because achieving it to a higher degree and achieving it more rapidly makes it easier to achieve and improve on the other SDGs)
Any perceptions of success that are not consistent with achieving and improving on the SDGs are destined to be corrected.In order to survive and thrive an institution/society/system/game must be able to effectively identify and correct misunderstandings that could lead to unsustainable or harmful developments, regardless of the temporary regional popularity or profitability of a misunderstanding that is harmful to others (especially to the future of humanity). The quicker an institution/society/system/game identifies and corrects those misunderstandings, the more rapidly it will improve its chances for a better future. And any institution/society/system/game that struggles to correct misunderstandings can easily be understood to be headed towards failure, no matter what perceptions of prosperity or superiority relative to others it has developed.
The case of climate science has exposed that free-market democratic capitalism is headed for failure. Free-market democratic capitalist competition that is restricted to truly sustainable activities would be a brilliant system/game to help advance humanity. It would be a tragedy if free-market democratic capitalism continues to progress so far down the incorrect path of marketing misunderstanding that the thought of it is crippled beyond easy repair and recovery.
Anyone who sees value in free-market democratic capitalism should be extremely concerned about the damage being done to the reputation of free-market democratic capitalism by the popularity and profitability of marketing misunderstanding related to climate science (and similar damaging actions related to all of the other SDGs).
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Eclectic at 13:31 PM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Art Vandelay @13 ,
a small nitpick : California's wildfire risks are influenced by the ongoing rising global CO2 emissions ~ regardless of whether (or not) the USA's emissions have fallen in recent years.
(Of course, reducing local wildfire incidence & severity, is a difficult and expensive task.)
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Art Vandelay at 12:21 PM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
nigelj@12: "If we want to reduce the forest fire problem our best bet might actually be reducing emissions".
Unfortunately, reducing emissions won't help in the short or medium terms, and a case in point is the USA, where emissions have fallen against a rising incidence and severity of forest fires. That's not a reason not to reduce emissions of course, but rather an acknowledgement of reality.
The solution(s) to reduce severity and incidence will differ for different areas of the globe, but will obviously involve better monitoring and management methods. In some cases it may even involve partial clearing. If 90% have a human cause it does at least provide reasonable scope to reduce ignitions. For instance, in my part of the world, scientists estimate a 10% increase in risk due to climate change, but ignitions have actually reduced over the past 20 years thanks to government education programs to make people more aware and diligent, and better forest management, which includes hazard reductions during winter.
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Daniel Bailey at 10:59 AM on 21 November 2018Solar cycles cause global warming
NASA tracks the solar forcing and compares it to global temperatures over time, here.
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dalesmith at 10:52 AM on 21 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
@BeezelyBillyBub, the US could easily cut 50% from its military budget, but only when other countries start paying their fair share for their own defense.
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scaddenp at 08:43 AM on 21 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
I do understand that, but I have massive mistrust of hand-wavy models compared to precisely stated mathematical models which reproduce multiple types of observations. It isnt clear to me whether you are challenging the RTEs or trying to do a plain English explanation of the net effect.
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michael sweet at 08:33 AM on 21 November 2018Solar cycles cause global warming
Ed,
Googling "Solar Cycle Activity" gives a number of hits that describe solar cycle 24 as the weakest in a century. That means that you would expect the solar forcing would be smaller than usual, probably around 0.1C (my estimate). The peak was in 2014.
We observe that 2014 was the hottest year recorded at that time and was the hottest year without an El Nino (now 2017 holds that record). The effect of the sun is often delayed for a year or two. 2015 and 2016 also set heat records.
It seems to me that it was fortunate the solar cycle was so low or we would have roasted even more than we did 2014-2016. Hopefully politicians will do something before it is too late.
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Josbert Lonnee at 07:22 AM on 21 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
scaddenp @ 129
Do you understand that I am not challenging the observations that the troposphere is warming and the stratosphere is cooling?
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Ed the Skeptic at 07:22 AM on 21 November 2018Solar cycles cause global warming
Well, it's now 2018, so we can evaluate the integrity of this article, which states that "The other significant finding is that solar forcing will add another 0.18°C warming on top of greenhouse warming between 2007 (we're currently at solar minimum) to the solar maximum around 2012. In other words, solar forcing will double the amount of global warming over the next five to six years.
How'd that turn out?
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Josbert Lonnee at 07:15 AM on 21 November 2018Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
@MA Rodger at 21:01 PM on 2 November, 2018
I really do not understand what you are trying to tell here, sorry. What is your point?
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BeezelyBillyBub at 06:05 AM on 21 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
*The Addiction Ghost of Ideology* 25 min by Gabor Maté *[ Ideology as addiction ]*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2YdpvnwtGcThe top 10% earners = 50% emissions, if taxed to middle income equivalent, emissions will decline 33%. If we tax the top 30% of earners to a middle income, emissions will decline 999% faster than any thing else we tried so far. We have 10yrs to reduce emissions 50%, and 20yrs to reduce emissions 100%. 100% private carbon credits will unite the left and right and stop an ideological race/sex war. After taxing the rich to pay for education and health, you add a 100% private carbon tax which will act as a Basic Income currency worldwide. I'm getting sick of talking to the wind. All America has to do to fix their county is cut the Pentagon budget 50%. These are the kind of actions needed to save mankind, worrying about your identity is for pub nights.Let's pretend you agree with everything I said above, but now I'm going to call you a cunty twat dick head, are you still with me?The young left say that there’s no difference between men and woman, and that sex and race are just social constructs, and white males are to blame. So, I’m being oppressed by 2 social constructs? White and male. Are you kidding? Would my oppressors be NPCs? Is life really a video game? Am I oppressing genetic transhuman Jews? Who knows? I guess, maybe. I hate white guys and love change as much as anyone, but that shit’s whacked. This is what I define as evil, social constructs. I’m liberal that way. It’s killing me.
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory/off-topic snipped. Please keep it clean.
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nigelj at 05:18 AM on 21 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
My understanding is typically about 80% of wild fires are caused by human factors, (campfires, discarded cigarettes, and arson) and lightening causes about 20%. But more forest area is destroyed by lightening because its in more remote hard to access areas.
www.air-worldwide.com/Blog/How-Humans-Shape-the-Wildfire-Peril/
Number of human caused ignitions does appear to have increased a little for some specific types of fires.
www.pnas.org/content/114/11/2946
Climate change is also causing more ignitions because dry areas are more susceptible to all ignition sources whether a discarded cigarette or a lightening strike.
Climate change is causing larger areas to be burned and increasing fire intensity.
www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires
Climate change is also causing more lightening strikes.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180531084415.htm
I think it would be very difficult to reduce problems like campfires and arson, because it's so hard to identify the perpetrators, and probably not politically practical to ban campfires. If we want to reduce the forest fire problem our best bet might actually be reducing emissions.
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fahad at 02:06 AM on 21 November 2018Renewable energy is too expensive
michael sweet,
We need equilibrium, we can't choose one, we need both. 100% shift in any scenario does not seem valid according to me, of course, I would choose to save fossil fuels for our kids and their kids and so on but in reality we are habitual of all these things and also renewable energy technology adoption will take several more years.
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SirCharles at 23:29 PM on 20 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
97% is understating the real scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming.
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467617707079?journalCode=bsta
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nigelj at 16:50 PM on 20 November 2018Katharine Hayhoe on Fossil Fuels
OPOF @6, yes its probably too simplistic to say economic growth would stop. This is how I see future patterns of gdp growth: Growth based on mining industries is likely to slow and even fall eventually, given limits on reserves of minerals and higher extraction costs, although recycling woud partly offset this.
Growth in the services sector is likely to continue especially with AI and more people working in this sector as manufacturing automates. But its likely to be low levels of growth as increasing output of services is notoriously challenging.
Growth in agriculture may continue quite robustly due to GM food and other innovations, but I would suggest the whole thing will slowly reach a limiting factor especially as land is finite, and if population declines there would be little reason for generating higher levels of output. Perhaps growth will be in quality.
It all depends on how we define growth, and timeframes, and low growth does not have to be a bad thing imho if it is in life promoting things and sustainable things as you mentioned. Japan has had low growth for years without major problems.
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Philippe Chantreau at 13:18 PM on 20 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
It would be nice if the Park Service would refer to sources for this kind of statement. Nonetheless I'll take it. It mathches what is on Wikipedia. In Canada and other regions, natural causes are more frequent sources of ignition. The recent situation in Canada points to climate change as a major factor in the severity and duration of the fire season, as is explained by Natural Resources Canada.
The fact that the number of fires per year is as variable as NOAA shows is interesting in that light. The highest year in their 18 year record has 4 times as many fires as the lowest and the number of fires does not follow the expected distribution of an increasing population. That would suggest some pretty wild variations in human behavior from one year to another, which warrants some skepticism.
In any case, if we are to consider the recent California fires, the root cause of their catastrophic nature and unprecedented speed of expansion have nothing to do with their ignition sources.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:55 PM on 20 November 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Someone criticizing climate science by bringing up this correction, or any other climate science correction, could be a great opportunity to have a discussion about the importance of people being open to changing their minds, especially being open to correcting incorrect beliefs about developed socioeconomic-political systems.
It is well understood that people can be encouraged to develop a personal resistance to being corrected. But as an engineer it was clear to me, and it also seems to be common sense, that it is not helpful to compromise on correcting a misunderstanding when unsustainable or harmful actions would be the result of not fully correcting the misunderstanding.
And an extension of that understanding is that systems that encourage people to develop resistance to being corrected (like systems driven by pursuits of popularity or profitability), rather than encouraging people to improve their awareness and understanding and change what they do accordingly, need to be corrected.
The Sustainable Development Goals are the most robust developed awareness and understanding of what is required for the future of humanity (and justified presentations to improve the SDGs can also be made).
Any developed beliefs and actions that are not aligned with achieving the SDGs can be understood to need to be corrected. And claims that every belief is an equally valid opinion, to evade being corrected, can be understood to be incorrect. Also, claims that everyone's beliefs need to be accommodated and compromised for, also an attempt to evade being corrected, are incorrect.
It is undeniable that people need to be corrected when the potential for harm is involved. And it is undeniable that there is harm being done to future generations (as well as to members of the current generation) by the unsustainable burning of fossil fuels. And the developed resistance to correction regarding climate science is proof that the socioeconomic-political systems that developed such resistance need to be corrected.
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Art Vandelay at 10:31 AM on 20 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Where does that 90% figure come from?
"As many as 90 percent of wildland fires in the United States are caused by humans. Human-caused fires result from campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, negligently discarded cigarettes, and intentional acts of arson.Nov 17, 2017"
www.nps.gov/articles/wildfire-causes-and-evaluations.htm
Information found in 0.02S
Moderator Response:[JH] Snark snipped.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:25 AM on 20 November 2018Katharine Hayhoe on Fossil Fuels
I disagree with claims that the future is "zero economic growth".
Once the economic activity is corrected to all be sustainable, improved efficiencies (better sustainable ways of living), will be developed to Grow The Economy.
The current problem is the magnitude of correction required due to the lack of interest in starting to correct things since 1972. And the need to maintain the progress of reduction of poverty is the part of developments to date that needs to be protected (not the unsustainable perceptions of relative degrees of superiority that were developed by undeserving people who continued to try to get more benefit from the burning of fossil fuels)
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scaddenp at 08:28 AM on 20 November 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Slight correction. Argo "float" measure temperature down to 2000m, so since argo we have very good handle on OHC. But as Nigel says, Argo only go back 14years (from memory) and measurements, especially below 700m get very sparse going back, consequently they have quite large error bars (see here)
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nigelj at 06:32 AM on 20 November 2018Katharine Hayhoe on Fossil Fuels
Can't fault Williams logic either. We are inevitably going to have to live with a low or zero growth world, because resources are finite, and we could eventually see higher prices for many products due to scarcity of resources, but we can prioritise and waste less to reduce these problems.
We can conserve resources and farm sustainably now, to ensure the best possible future supply of resources for future generation. Smaller population will reduce demand for scarce resources.
All these things help the climate problem as well. Its all mutually reinforcing.
We are going to have a huge demographic bulge of elderly people. It will be a tricky transition. It's really important to progress health care research to make the elderly as independent and productive as possible, and it will need more carers and a lot of compassion.
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nigelj at 06:12 AM on 20 November 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
William, the trouble is the argo floats only measure the surface and only go back about 10 years.
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scaddenp at 06:09 AM on 20 November 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
Keeling's article at RealClimate explains it.
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nigelj at 05:01 AM on 20 November 2018The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
The reason the public largely aren't aware of the consensus on climate science is because they mainly get their science information from the mainstream general media like newspapers and television, and the media don't report the consenus much from what I have seen (admittedly a bit anecdotal).
I suspect the reasons are threefold. Firstly its more of a good news piece, and the media largely only report bad news and celebrity gossip. Secondly the media's advertisers include business and fossil fuel interests who probably don't want a consensus given publicity for obvious self interested reasons.
Thirdly a consensus ends most of the debate on climate change and the media like controversy because it keeps people reading. This is also probably why they publish a 50 / 50 split of opinions from warmists and sceptics even although it doesn,t represent the true proportionality of views.
Trump is half right. The media are useless and fake, its just not in the way Trump thinks.
Not good enough. The media need to do the right thing and keep the public constantly informed of important things like scientific consensus on major issues like climate change.
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william5331 at 04:41 AM on 20 November 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
You would wonder why they would use a proxy method to estimate the heat that has been accumulated in the oceans when we have a direct measurement system in the Argo floats which is orders of magnitude better than any system we have had before. Perhaps they should look back at their proxy method and compare it with the actual measurements and see if the difference is not telling them something interesting.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:33 AM on 20 November 2018The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires
Art Vandelay, "relevant government agencies" is rather vague. I don't see that you have actually done the work to back up your assertions. NOAA has wildfire statistics for the period 2000-2017 on the following page:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/societal-impacts/wildfires/
I have not done a statistical analysis of the numbers, however at first glance, there is no easily discernable trend in the number of fires starting. The acres burned does seem to show an upward trend. The highest number of fires is reported in the first year of the period, over 7600 fires. Considering that the population did increase over the period, it seems that these data do not support your hypothesis of more people simply igniting more fires. I looked at NOAA, FEMA and USGS and could not find categorizations of fires by ignition source. Where does that 90% figure come from?
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