Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Next
Comments 1451 to 1500:
-
bdgwx at 00:58 AM on 26 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Here is a lengthy interview with Pat Frank posted 2 days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-Ke9F0m_gw
Per usual there are a lot of inaccuracies and misrepresentations about uncertianty in it.
Moderator Response:[RH] Activated link.
-
Bob Loblaw at 08:10 AM on 25 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
In the "small world" category, a comment over at AndThenTheresPhysics has pointed people to another DiagramMonkey post that covers a semi-related topic: a really bad paper by one Stuart Harris, a retired University of Calgary geography professor. The paper argues several climate myths.
I have had a ROFLMAO moment reading that DiagramMonkey post. Why? Well in the second-last paragraph of my review of Pat Frank's paper (above), I said:
I am reminded of a time many years ago when I read a book review of a particularly bad “science” book: the reviewer said “either this book did not receive adequate technical review, or the author chose to ignore it”.
That was a book (on permafrost) that was written by none other than Stuart Harris. I remember reviewing a paper of his (for a permafrost conference) 30 years ago. His work was terrible then. It obviously has not improved with age.
-
nigelj at 07:06 AM on 25 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
Markp @2
The IPCC do indeed have this scientific reticence. Its like a sort of conservatism. But its not just the IPCC. Science has operated that way for centuries and for good reasons.Some initial scientific findings prove to be false so the conservatism is a form of quality control. If the scientific community was too quick to endorse every new scientific finding then all its credibility would have been gone long ago, and everyone would have stopped listening long ago.
We have problems with a public backlash even now, when a theory proves to be incorrect (fortunately its very uncommon) so imagine if the scientific community was less conservative that it is. So although I'm not a conservative sort of person as such, and dislike playing down of risk assessments, I respect that its probably better that organisations like the IPCC are a little bit conservative.
That said how conservative are they? If you read their reports there are charts showing warming could reach 5 degrees this century and 10 degrees by 2300. And charts now upgraded to show that 2 M SLR is possible this century as low probability but high impact event.This does not look excessively reticent or conservative.
And do you think that adding a degree or two to those scary looking numbers would change the public perception much, and lead to stronger mitigation? I'm not seeing it. If the public cant work out that 5 degrees of warming this century under BAU is serious I doubt that saying its 7 degrees would make much difference. All we can do is repeat the implications for the planet of the official projections, explain them as well as we can, and point out the serious climate changes and the increased preponderance of heatwaves and flooding we are already seeing, and as loudly as we can.
Fossil fuel exporting countries do indeed have a malign influence on the Summary for Policy makers. Can't find the reference now but apparently some terms on levels of risk have been weakened and references to fossil fuels minimised. This is a very real concern and does mean we need to understand things are worse than the SFPM suggests. If you read beyond the SFPM and to the fine details, and the actual charts, things are not watered down in the same way. The trouble is who reads that?
Regarding your complaint that billionaires profit out of climate solutions and might have other ulterior motives, and countering this with the suggested alternative of placing solar reflectors on the ground. Its a possible climate solution, but billionaires will still make money out of this one way or the other. Its hard to escape the private sector making money out of climate solutions, given the structure of our economy. I don't care as long as the job gets done, and they are not breaking laws or profiterring as such. It would be good if they reduced their personal climate footprint, and showed some meaningful climate leadership and helped those less fortunate than themselves.
-
rkcannon at 03:27 AM on 25 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
Low sulfur diesel fuel has been out for how long? 25 yr? If this is reducing cloud formation, then diesel engine particulates may have been helping too by shielding the sun, and possibly creating clouds. Now particulates are so low you can't see any smoke. They even have particulate traps. China and India better keep burning coal since the smoke probably reflects the sun. Seems it is more complex than CO2 and could explain some anomalies.
Moderator Response:[BL]
"If"? "May"? "Possibly"? "Probably"? "Could"? "Seems"?
Such uniformed speculation serves no purpose here.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
-
rkcannon at 03:14 AM on 25 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
Skeptical Science asks that you review the comments policy. Thank you.
Geoengineering has been going on for decades (aka Chem Trails). See what they are doing at [SNIP]geoengineeringwatch.org.
Moderator Response:[BL] No, thanks. We have no interest here in conspiracy theories such as chemtrails.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 02:54 AM on 25 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
Markp,
I agree that the IPCC presentation of understanding regarding 'the problem and the solutions' has been harmfully compromised by 'interests that conflict with the development of sustainable improvements for humanity, regionally or globally'.
However, IPCC is not responsible for 'promoting increased awareness and improved understanding' regarding the understanding that is compiled by the IPCC. The leaders (in political and business, globally and regionally) need to be 'held responsible' for the promotion of increased awareness and improved understanding.
The IPCC report presentation must be consistent with the available evidence. That requirement has resulted in the progressive strengthening of IPCC statements contrary to the desires and interests of the undeserving portion of leadership competitors around the planet. And the latest IPCC statement concludes that, based on the evidence, the lack of leadership action through the past 30 years has created a situation where it is almost certain that 'reasonably limiting the harm done to the future of humanity' will 'now' require dramatic reductions and limits of harmful consumption, especially energy over-consumption (desired but 'unnecessary' consumption), as well as removal of CO2 from the atmosphere - even if those actions reduce the status of people who unjustifiably developed perceptions of higher status (permitting those developing to be like the higher status people to become more harmful while requiring the higher status people to set less harmful examples for everyone else to aspire to).
The awareness and understanding that now undeniably needs to be promoted is that many of the current leaders (winners) are undeserving of their status. They have proven to be unworthy of their wealth and influence through their efforts to weaken the presentation of understanding by the IPCC which made it easier for them to actively promote 'doubt regarding the fundamental understanding of the required corrections and requirement to make amends for harm done' that is presented by the IPCC.
The current situation can be understood to be the result of a history of harmful irresponsible actions by undeserving wealthy powerful people. Arguing for 'significant climate geoengineering actions', rather than promoting the fundamental 'need to end harmful human geoengineering impacts that incorrectly developed popularity and profitability' and 'reducing the harmfully over-developed GHG levels', will not address the real problem ... it will not result in sustainable solutions.
-
Rob Honeycutt at 00:00 AM on 25 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
Markp... "Adam and Miriam accept the logic that the only necessary thing to do in order to reverse GW is to reverse GHGs, in other words, get rid of them. That's a little bit like having your doctor tell you that in order to cure your tobacco-caused cancer, you just need to stop smoking."
This is a grossly innaccurate comparison. GW isn't a cancer, being that cancer is a growth. Tobacco smoking damages cells which then become cancerous. You can't reverse that effect.
Global warming, on the contrary, is not a growth. It is an effect due to the radiative properties of GHG's in the atmopshere. If you stop emitting CO2 you stop the warming, and it's now understood, that cessation of warming would be near immediate when we stop the increase of atmospheric concentrations.
-
Markp at 22:49 PM on 24 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
This is a reasonably well-done video by Adam, but there are some points that need to be made.
As many people have learned, the IPCC has done a pretty lousy job of informing the public, and the scientific views it presents have been warped both by the scientists themselves (the dreaded "scientific reticence" effect) as well as the politicians from 195 member countries that have veto power on much of the content released to the public which can be generally characterized as very, very conservative. In other words, it's way worse than they tell us, and their "solutions" not nearly as effective as they tell us. Adam and his friend Miriam are both, from what I can tell, very much cheerleaders for the IPCC. Not surprising: they are fresh out of university and so in that sense have not spent much (any?) time in the real world of working scientists, so their current YouTube careers aside, they may not want to annoy the IPCC-dominated narrative on all things climate.
Two big issues: 1) we need geoengineering more than they tell us, and 2) there is more to geoengineering than SAI.
1) Like so many climate scientists under the spell of the IPCC, (for many reasons which take too long to unpack here) Adam and Miriam accept the logic that the only necessary thing to do in order to reverse GW is to reverse GHGs, in other words, get rid of them. That's a little bit like having your doctor tell you that in order to cure your tobacco-caused cancer, you just need to stop smoking. Fighting the cause isn't always guaranteed to bring about a result in a timely manner. Reducing GHGs, yes, but who is doing that? Miriam said something like international agreements like Paris have "already reduced warming by 1C" and I say huh? All the talk of international agreements sounds good but isn't our reality, as anyone looking at our world's biggest problems today knows in an instant. Our "efforts" to reduce emissions are nowhere. It's not happening. Targets and discussions aren't enough. The point that people behind geoengineering make is: emissions reduction is not and WILL NOT happen fast enough to stop our ecosystem from collapsing. Additionally, carbon removal methods, whether nature-based or mechanical, have huge scaling problems. Yes, nature has dealt with CO2 in the past, but not like what we have now. They are very slow, are not always even feasible (tree-planting a perfect example, look at the studies) and have other issues such as water constraints making them impossible at scale. And mechanical CO2 removal is even worse. When it works, it's fast, but unscalable, with DAC being the most obvious case. So after the IPCC cheerleading stops, we have to face the music. We don't have time to rely only on the method of "turn off the tap and clean up the mess."
2) Geoengineering (you heard Adam slip in "SRM" as well, Solar Radiation Management, a type of geoengineering) is almost always equated with just ONE currently discussed method, which is Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, or SAI. That's because it's got a lot of billionaire-potential!
SAI is NOT more than a theory at this point, however. But you won't find that mentioned by many of its proponents. It is not the only way to go, is not loved by many (unbiased) climate scientists, has oodles of scientific problems to overcome if it would even work, and so is NOT the end of the geoengineering or SRM story. So Nigelj's characterization above, which makes it seem that SAI is ready-for-take-off, is wrong.
I will admit that, like the VAST majority of actual movement on climate we have seen, geoengineering efforts have a lot in common with disaster capitalism, and so should be checked out very thoroughly. Making money off of GW is the most effective thing we humans have done to date, which is a crime against humanity. Period. Governments now throwing large sums of money out for grants only on very narrowly-defined work chokes real progress. What we forget is that scientists have to get paid. Who pays them? Why? Most scientific research is arguably being funded by those who are expecting a product to patent and sell if things go well. Scientists are NOT always out there trying to find the fastest most practical fix here. The more tech that goes into it, the better. The more career-building we can get out of it, the better. That's why we see people talking about, of all things, space mirrors, as if simply putting them on the ground here to do what clouds and snow do is out of the question. There are people promoting that very idea and it has vastly more promise than any other geoengineering solution but is largely ignored (but that's changing) because it doesn't create billionaires and cannot be weaponized.
Like many things, this discussion has so much more to it than meets the eye. We need to think, REALLY think, and be realistic, and stop listening so much to government institutions (or their cheerleaders) that have almost never served anyone other than the powerful very well.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please avoid characterizations/personalizations/insinuations/allegations pertaining to motive or deception, a form of ad hominem (prohibited by this site's Comments Policy).
-
Bob Loblaw at 11:16 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
DiagramMonkey also has a useful post on uncertainty myths, from a general perspective. It touches on a few of the issues about averaging, normality, etc. that are discussed in this OP.
-
nigelj at 06:18 AM on 24 August 2023ClimateAdam: The Vlog Brothers on geoengineering
Lets imagine a scenario where the world fails to reduce emissions enough to adequately fix the climate problem, leaving tropical countries sweltering in the heat with unendurable heatwaves.
The world debates geoengineering, but countries like America are (rightly) concerned about side effects of geoengineering and prefer sucking CO2 out of the atmpsphere - but the costs on the global economy are considerable. Nobody can make a decision.
Tropical zone countries become desperate and form a group and they start spaying aerosols over huge areas of the planet, risking negative side effects for everyone. All it takes are a fleet of aircraft. How would you stop them? Shoot aircraft down? Trade embargos? Beg them to stop? Whatever you do to try and stop them, it looks like a huge problem to me.
-
Bob Loblaw at 03:47 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
DiagramMonkey's post also has a link to an earlier DiagramMonkey post that has an entertaining description of Pat Frank's approach to his writing (and criticism of it).
DiagramMonkey refers to it as Hagfishing.
-
Bob Loblaw at 03:35 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Thanks for that link, Tom.
I see that DiagramMonkey thinks that I am braver than he is. (There is a link over there back to this post...)
-
Tom Dayton at 02:43 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Diagram Monkey posted about the most recent Pat Frank article.
-
bigoilbob at 00:48 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
An update. Dr. Frank created an auto erotic self citation for his paper, so there is no longer "no citations" for it.
-
Rob Honeycutt at 23:51 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
MarkP... Zeke Hausfather has a very good explainer on this topic that may assist in your understanding of this topic.
-
Bob Loblaw at 23:29 PM on 23 August 2023At a glance - How substances in trace amounts can cause large effects
ubrew12:
Your analogy is a bit hard to follow. I presume that the point you are trying to make is:
- The best players in the world will not be very effective in stopping you from reaching the goal when their shoes are tied together. As a result, your chances of scoring are high. This is analogous to IR radiation easily passing through gases that do not absorb well.
- Even a mediocre player that is free to run around and get in your way has a good chance of stopping you, even if he only represents 2% of the players on the field (most of whom are limited by having their shoes tied together). This is analogous to CO2 blocking IR radiation, even though its concentration is small compared to the gases that are not blocking IR radiation.
- So, your chances of scoring are largely the result of the one player free to run around and defend against you, not the 50 players with their shoes tied. Expressing the concentration of untied players relative to the tied players is misleading.
To extend the analogy, if they took away 25 of the players with their shoes tied, the local high school player would now be 4% of the total opposition. But that does not mean that he would be twice as effective at stopping you. He's still only one player.
For a further look at how concentrations of CO2 in ppm can be misleading, it is worth reading this blog post (to beat my own drum):
-
Bob Loblaw at 23:11 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
Markp @ 19:
In your first paragraph, you appear to be confusing two different scenarios:
- net zero implies that anthropogenic net additions to atmospheric CO2 are zero (which means emissions are zero, or we have found ways to remove CO2 as well as add it).
- Stabilize CO2 means that atmospheric concentrations are not changing - which can happen when anthropogenic net contributions are still positive, but are balanced because natural removals exceed natural additions by the same amount.
In the first case (net zero), natural removals (which currently exceed natural additions) will cause a reduction in atmospheric CO2 over the next decades, and we expect to see temperatures stabilize. The decreasing CO2 will not lead immediately to cooling, because the current CO2 levels still have "warming in the pipeline" that will offset the immediate direct cooling effect of less CO2.
In the second case (CO2 stable), there is still "warming in the pipeline", so we expect to see temperatures continue to rise for a while.
Once you understand this difference, I expect that much of your confusion will dissipate.
-
Eclectic at 22:20 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
Markp @19 , your final paragraph is, in itself, showing lack of clarity.
Cynical people (like you and I ) as well as non-cynical people, should surely wish to take practical action to achieve nett-zero carbon emissions in a reasonably quick manner ~ even though those scientists (with various levels of "ept" ) fail to give perfect precision of projection of the probable prospective developments [futurists refer to this as the problem of pppppd scenario ].
More seriously, Markp . . . what alternatives are you suggesting?
-
Markp at 20:25 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
I'm still not sold on the idea that zero or net-zero emissions implies no future warming, as Evan says "A world where the best we do is to stabilize CO2 has, for all intents and purposes, "warming in the pipeline", something that does not occur if and when we reach net-zero emissions."
First of all, it is not ultimately GHGs that determine warming, it is the EEI that does that. In other words, as I understand it, if the EEI is positive, but GHG emissions are zero, Earth still warms.
I also find it problematic that the idea of "zero emissions" or "net-zero" seems to imply to most people that all we are talking about are human emissions, when the possibility of an end to human emissions could exist while (significant) non-human emissions (for example permafrost melt) could still create warming, so that we are actually not at zero or even net-zero emissions regardless of source.
I have long searched for a really solid scientific explanation of the concept of baked-in or committed warming that carefully tries to help people understand why some scientists say it exists and some say it doesn't. But the Zeke piece (and I don't trust for-profit scientists on this) is not convincing and neither is the Scientific American piece.
Neither is the MacDougall 2022 ZECMIP study paper which clearly states "The most policy relevant question related to this research is: will global temperatures continue to increase following complete cessation of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions? The present iteration of the study aims to answer part of this question by examining the temperature response in idealized CO2-only climate model experiments. To answer the question in full, the behaviour of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land-use-change must be accounted for in a consistent way," which is another way of admitting that ZECMIP at this point is still "garbage in, garbage out."
In fact, the pieces I have found seem to rely purely on models which are always incomplete, as is ZECMIP.
And neither is this piece by Evan able to clarify this for me. Evan simply says it does not happen, as if that's been settled. He does not mention the warming, for example, that would come from the (potentially sudden? would it even matter?) end of reflective fossil fuel aerosols.
The amazing lack of clarity on this subject, which is absolutely crucial to the discussion of any need to lower emissions, is astonishing, and leads cynical people like me to assume that it is a result of the IPCC-induced obfuscation and the complete ineptitude on the part of scientists to recognize that this issue is important and to do something about providing clarity.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering and accusations of deceptions snipped. Please conform future comments to adhere to this site's Comments Policy to avoid such behaviors in the future. Thanks!
-
ubrew12 at 06:34 AM on 23 August 2023At a glance - How substances in trace amounts can cause large effects
Say I'm on the soccer field. The ball is infrared radiation. Against me are 50 of the best players in the World. Can I make a goal? Did I mention their shoes are tied together?
Now, put one more opposing player, from the local high school, only his shoes aren't tied together. Can I make a goal? Suddenly, it's not as certain. The opposing team has only grown by 2%, but my chances of making a goal have dropped around 50%.
-
Doug Bostrom at 06:11 AM on 23 August 2023Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023
Thanks OPOF!
Yes, it's a bit frustrating and indeed ironic that we don't have the full Samoilenko & Cook paper on tap, only the submitted manuscript.
An object lesson of sorts on the weird intersection between for-profit publishers and science. Climate Policy is published by Taylor & Francis, which in turn is owned by Informa, which as a publicly traded company is intended for the purpose of rent-seeking for the benefit of investors as opposed to advancing the state of human knowledge. The rent-seeking objective is quite successful; by jealously guarding and obfuscating scientific information, Informa yielded three quarters of a billon dollars of profit last year. We could wish that selling sewage was a more profitable avenue thus luring the cloud of investor flies looking for free lunch in that direction. But as it stands now, hiding information from the public is the best deal on offer.
It may be that the authors still have managed to cling to the right to individually share what they've learned and won't be sued if they do so. Try emailing john[at]skepticalscience.com if you're keen to see figures.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 07:38 AM on 22 August 2023Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023
Thank you for another wonderful set of interesting items.
The highlighted item "Developing an Ad Hominem Typology for Classifying Climate Misinformation" presents an interesting and helpful evaluation of misinformation ad hominem attacks regarding climate science.
The developed understanding can be understood to apply to misinformation attacks on other efforts to increase awareness and understanding, like the Sustainable Development Goals, that result in requiring:
- changes of direction of development (Systemic Change)
- correction of development that has already occured (Changing the Status Quo)
- making amends for harm done by past actions (Systemic Change that Changes the Status Quo)
Minor Point: The linked report does not include the Figures and Tables. The text only includes the statements:
- INSERT Figure x HERE
- INSERT Table y HERE
-
Bob Loblaw at 03:38 AM on 21 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
More speculation won't get us anywhere.
J4Zonian's recent comment is not his first appearance here, and he has been an infrequent visitor. Nothing in previous posts suggests a strong anti-climate-science stance, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt (until further evidence comes to light).
-
Rob Honeycutt at 03:04 AM on 21 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
Given I doubt he'll be returning, I wonder if the "Jeffersonian" name reference is a clue to the intent.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 02:39 AM on 21 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
Bob, It may be very difficult to 'know for sure' what J4sonian meant.
The use of the term 'delivery guy' is my primary basis for considering J4sonian's comment to be a misinformation ad hominem type of comment (I have just started reading the "Samoilenko, S.A., & Cook, J. (2023). Developing an Ad Hominem Typology for Classifying Climate Misinformation. Climate Policy. doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2245792" paper highlighted on "Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023")
The short statement by J4sonian can be considered to be a dog-whistle appeal to people who have developed a motivation to disrespect and be dismissive of 'Al Gore'. The 'delivery guy' term can easily be interpreted that way.
The nasty thing about dog-whistle misleading messages is the way that they can be claimed to 'not be the misinformation appeal to people who are inclined to be unjustifiably impressed that it is intended to be'. 'Delivery Guy' could be claimed to have been a friendly colloquial way of describing a diligent pursuer and presenter of increased awareness and better understanding
A history of clearly attempting to help increase awareness and improve understanding regarding climate science by J4sonian could convince me that their comment was not meant to 'disrespect Al Gore as a means of being dismissive of the information he raised awareness of'. And a part of that would include J4sonian admitting that when Al Gore produced An Inconvenient Truth he had a significantly better awareness and understanding of climate science that many 'geologists at that time' and many 'geologists claiming to be well informed regarding climate science today'.
In summary, a reasonable sounding clarification from J4sonian could be a more subtle dog-whistle appeal to people who are motivated to dislike increased awareness and improved understanding regarding climate science and the related required corrections of 'harmful over-consuming developed ways of living' and 'making amends for the harm done'.
-
BaerbelW at 18:45 PM on 20 August 2023Sea level rise is exaggerated
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Aug 20, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
-
Bob Loblaw at 03:40 AM on 20 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
We'll only know for sure if J4zonian clarifies his position.
-
Bob Loblaw at 03:36 AM on 20 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Thanks, bigoilbob.
That PubPeer thread is difficult to read. The obstinance by Pat Frank is painful to watch.
One classic comment from Pat Frank:
Everyone understands the 1/sqrt(N) rule for random error, Joshua.
Except, apparently, Pat Frank, who in the paper reviewed above seems to have messed up square rooting the N when propagating the standard deviation into the error of the mean. Unless he actually thinks that non-randomness in errors can be handled by simply dropping the sqrt.
Pat Frank is also quite insistent in that comment thread that summing up a year's worth of a measurement (e.g. temperature) and dividing by the number of measurements to get an annual average gives a value of [original units] per year.
Gavin Cawley sums it up in this comment:
I had a look at your responses to reviewers on the previous submissions, which seem also to contain this very poor attitude to criticism. It tells me there is no point in me explaining to you what is wrong with your paper, because you have made it very clear that you are not prepared to listen to anybody that disagrees with you.
-
bigoilbob at 02:42 AM on 20 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
And here's the twiter thread I began with.
https://twitter.com/andrewdessler/status/1175490719114571776
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated
-
bigoilbob at 02:39 AM on 20 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
"Do you have any link to specific statements from Carl Wunsch? Curiosity arises."
Specifically, this is what I found. Old news, but not to me. I hope that I did not mischaracterize Dr. Wunsch earlier, and my apologies to both him and readers if aI did so.
"#5 Carl Wunsch
I am listed as a reviewer, but that should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the paper. In the version that I finally agreed to, there were some interesting and useful descriptions of the behavior of climate models run in predictive mode. That is not a justification for concluding the climate signals cannot be detected! In particular, I do not recall the sentence "The unavoidable conclusion is that a temperature signal from anthropogenic CO2 emissions (if any) cannot have been, nor presently can be, evidenced in climate observables." which I regard as a complete non sequitur and with which I disagree totally.The published version had numerous additions that did not appear in the last version I saw.
I thought the version I did see raised important questions, rarely discussed, of the presence of both systematic and random walk errors in models run in predictive mode and that some discussion of these issues might be worthwhile."
https://pubpeer.com/publications/391B1C150212A84C6051D7A2A7F119#5
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated.
The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box. -
John Mason at 01:33 AM on 20 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
OPOF #8 - that was my impression and it was why I responded sharply: however, if I have miscalled comment #5 then I apologise for that.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 01:23 AM on 20 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
Bob Loblaw @7,
I agree more with John Mason's approach. But I would go further and ask J4zonian to explain how they are more qualified today regarding the awareness and understanding of climate science than Al Gore was when he developed An Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore was a very aware individual at the time with a significant understanding of the science. And he knows far more today.
I am more inclined towards the perception that J4zonian is unjustifiably disrespecting Al Gore. And I sense that the disrespect is due to a dislike for the understanding that Al Gore shared.
The understanding that Al Gore 'shared' increased the common sense awareness and understanding of the issue, especially the need for harmful inconsiderate over-consuming Americans, and others like them, to change how they live to be less harmful and more helpful to others (contrary to the untruthful declarations by both 'Bush' Presidents of the Neoliberal mantra that harmfully over-developed Americans are 'the winners' and did not have to change how they lived or make amends for the harm done by 'their success' - Many Republicans and Some Democrats still chant versions of that untruth).
-
Bob Loblaw at 23:55 PM on 19 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
John @ 6:
I don't think J4zonian is saying "don't believe Al Gore because he's just a delivery man". I think J4zonian is saying that Al Gore is a messenger of the science, so even if he gets a little bit wrong here and there, the original diagnosis and medicine is largely correct.
I think.
-
John Mason at 15:48 PM on 19 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
And your qualifications are?
-
J4zonian at 14:36 PM on 19 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
"because a single doctor misdiagnoses a condition, medicine should be abolished in its entirety."
It's Al Gore. It's more like a delivery guy misdiagnosed a condition.
-
Eclectic at 09:59 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williams :
Since you seem reluctant to engage in rational discussion ~ may I suggest you instead join the comments columns of WattsUpWithThat blog?
There at WUWT one will find scores of commenters brimming with anger at the world ( and at themselves, inwardly ). Plenty of disingenuousness and deliberate ignorance there . . . enough to satisfy any like-minded spirit. You might well be pleased!
At WUWT blog, the ice age has never ended.
Moderator Response:[BL] This really isn't constructive....
-
Bob Loblaw at 07:17 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
MA Rodger @ 138:
Yes, this discussion is wandering off the blog post's topic. There is no way to determine Don Williamson's motives unless he explains them, but it appears that he is trying to do two things:
- Take Oreskes' paper out of context to make it look like the 1970s "cooling" story was an indicator of a huge shift in climate science [it wasn't] - I presume to discredit climatology as a science [he hasn't].
- Bootstrap the idea that "they don't know what they are talking about - they'll just make stuff up" by using the hiatus as an indicator that warming isn't linked to CO2 increases [he's wrong] and we might flip back into decades or centuries of cooling even if we burn every last bit of fossil fuels [we won't].
I have an off-topic challenge to Don that he has not yet responded to (review one example of the many "hiatus" papers he insinuates support him). I need to let him respond, if he is willing or able.
If the off-topic sound bites continue without responding to that challenge, I will probably need to bow out of the conversation and take on a moderator role.
-
Bob Loblaw at 07:03 AM on 19 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
bigoilbob @ 24:
Do you have any link to specific statements from Carl Wunsch? Curiosity arises.
I agree that science will simply ignore the paper. But the target is probably not the science community: it's the "we'll believe ABC [Anything But Carbon]" community, which unfortunately includes large blocks of politicians with significant power. All they need is a thick paper that has enough weight (physical mass, not significance) to survive being tossed down the stairwell, with a sound bite that says "mainstream science has it all wrong". It doesn't matter that the paper isn't worth putting at the bottom of a budgie cage.
-
Eclectic at 05:02 AM on 19 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Bigoilbob @24 , as a side-note :- Many thanks for your numerous very sensible comments in "contrarian" blogsites, over the years. Gracias.
-
bigoilbob at 00:51 AM on 19 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
"Did anyone ever see what the reviewers (including Carl Wunsch and
Davide Zanchettin) said about Frank's similar 2019 paper in Frontiers in Science?"Carl Wunsch has since disavowed his support for the contents. I'm not sure whether he would have rejected it upon closer reading. Many reviewers want alt.material to be published. If it's good stuff, it will be cited. The 2019 Pat Frank paper and this one have essentially not been...
-
michael sweet at 00:36 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williams:
The "hiatus" papers do not show what you are claiming. Yes, Mann et al claimed that the "pause" was statistically significant. You can quote that paper. But in science it is not individual papers that count, it is the conclusions that count.
Foster and Ramsdorf replied to the Mann et al paper and claimed that the Mann et al paper had made calculation errors that invalidated their result. Foster et al claimed that there was no statistical significance. The scientific method is to exchange peer reviewed papers to debate facts. After several papers were exchanged, Mann et al conceded that they had made a mistake in their calculations and the "pause" was not statistically significant. It was magnificent to watch top scientists debate a fact and reach a consensus on what the true result was.
The scientific consensus is that the "pause" was simply random variation and not a change in the warmng pattern. Data collected since then have conclusively confirmed that the climate did not stop warming as demonstrated by the escalator. The Mann et al scientists agree with the consensus.
Mann and his collaborators are great scientists. Sometimes everyone makes mistakes. The difference between scientists and deniers is that when data shows that a scientist made a mistake they learn from the experience and move on. Deniers just regurgitate the same old debunked "pause" claims after everyone informed has moved on.
-
MA Rodger at 00:33 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williamson @133 & others,
Discussion of the early 21st century SAT/SST record is hardily on-topic for this comment thread. The handful of years showing a reduced rate of warming surface tempertures did not lead to a reversal of warming but to an increased rate of warming, so any linkage to 1970's ideas of a coming ice age is entirely absent, despite an attempted linkage @108 up-thread. (And for the record, the take-away from the SciAm article referenced @133 is the ascribed response fro 'researchers' to all the 'hiatus' nonsense:-"Picking a period of a decade or so where one part of the Earth's climate system fails to warm and using it to discredit all of climate science is a fallacious argument, and one driven by those with an agenda to discredit climate scientists."
Don Williamson, you have up-thread referenced Oreskes in the discussion of the 1970's idea of a coming ice age and insist there is some missing argument that gives continuing credibility to this 1970's idea (which are also ideas of earlier times according to Oreskes. "Throughout most of the history of science, geologists and geophysicists believed that Earth history was characterized by progressive, steady, cooling.") Do note the referenced pre-print conference paper does not constitute proof of a 'missing argument'. And were one sought, perhaps Oreskes (2007) 'The scientific consensus on climate change: How do we know we're not wrong?' can provide it.
-
michael sweet at 00:12 AM on 19 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
Old time readers of this website will remember when climate deniers derided "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change" or CAGW. Scientists insisted that was not their message. Was that only 10 years ago? Now I often hear climate scientists discussing catastrophic effects of global warming and I don't see the deniers using CAGW any more.
Eclectic: you read WUWT, do they still discredit CAGW?
I like the term catastrophic climate change. What else would describe the fires, droughts and floods worldwide?
-
Rob Honeycutt at 00:10 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
"The 'warming' was taking place where there's little to no measuring devices?
Is that sound science?"
Don... If heat energy is moving into realms that have little or no measuring devices, it's absolutely science. Researchers don't get to pick and choose how the physics operate. They can only devise methods to better account for the physics. This is precisely what science is about.
If you look at the animated escalator graphic, this is exactly what it's telling you. Heat energy is moving into and out of other systems which are coupled to the atmosphere. This has been understood for many decades, regardless of whether you're just catching on. Your only mistake would be to become so ideologically entrenched so as to be unable to grasp such a simple concept.
It's honestly okay to just say, "Hm, I hadn't thought about that."
-
Bob Loblaw at 00:07 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Also note that the article in Scientific American that Don has pointed us to is phrased in the form of a question: "Has global warming paused?"
Also note that the subtitle is "Climate scientists know the answer is no, but have trouble communicating that".
Don needs to read up on Betteridge's law of headlines.
Seriously, is that the best you can do, Don?
-
Bob Loblaw at 00:01 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
As a further part of the challenge to Don:
You have referred to "the hiatus". I will repeat the graphic of the Escalator:
Since the topic of the OP here is "cooling in the 1970s", and The Escalator shows seven periods of "no warming", please be specific as to which of those seven periods represents "the hiatus" you are talking about. Or a different period, if you have found an eighth.
-
Bob Loblaw at 23:53 PM on 18 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don:
Just as I thought. You have not actually read any of the papers - you only have a link to something with selected quotes. And the "multiple papers" you claim are available just lead to Michael Mann mentioning a "temporary slowdown"?
I repeat my challenge:
Pick one - just one - of those papers, and provide us with a thorough review of that paper and how it supports your argument that the hiatus represents a serious challenge to the consensus position on anthropogenic increases in global temperature.
You're just blowing smoke. -
Don Williamson at 23:06 PM on 18 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
To Eclectic
Use Google Scholar as well as a couple of search engines reading peer-reviewed paper on the 'hiatus' 'wsrming slowdown'
If you jot down the various reasons that were used in the multiple papers you'll understand why Dr Michael E Mann said, "The problem isn't that we cannot explain the temporary slowdown in warming — ???????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????? ????????"
Dr Kevin Trenberth Trenberth was a co-author on a paper published in Nature Climate Change that used models to show that pauses in surface temperature warming correspond to additional heat being stored deep in the ocean, ???????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????.
The 'warming' was taking place where there's little to no measuring devices?
Is that sound science?
link to quotes above:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-global-warming-paused/
????
Moderator Response:[RH] Link activated.
-
John Mason at 16:47 PM on 18 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
I rather liked 'Climate destabilisation' and used it a lot years ago....
-
Eclectic at 16:00 PM on 18 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
BaerbelW @6 ,
For sure, Dr Hayhoe's "global weirding" is a great phrase, and fits nicely with her own slightly humorous style of presentation.
For everyday use ~ probably not a winner. It would appeal to the more intellectual end of the spectrum, who already are well-acquainted with the subject of AGW . . . but maybe not conveying the problem for the man-in-the-street. Too poetical.
