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Comments 16801 to 16850:
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sailorman at 11:54 AM on 10 November 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
To change the topic somewhat. We know that CO2 has increased by 43% over pre-industrial measurements to 400ppm in 2013. The crucial question, it seems to me is, how much of that 43% increase is from anthropogenic causes and how much is natural? I would very much appreciate if someone coud answer that.
Moderator Response:[TD] 100%. See Human CO2 is a Tiny %. Please put further comments there. There are several more relevant posts, but due to me having just my phone right now, plus Elysian Space Dust, I am poorly situated to provide those right now. Comment there to ask for those if you want.
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John Hartz at 11:28 AM on 10 November 2017Climate's changed before
Recommneded supplemental reading:
The climate has changed before. But this is different – look at the archeological record by Peter B Campbell, Guardian, Nov 9, 2017
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michael sweet at 10:19 AM on 10 November 2017What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?
Aleks:
From the preface of your reference:
"Ocean acidification is an undisputed fact. The ocean presently takes up one-fourth of the carbon CO2 emitted to the atmosphere from human activities. As this CO2 dissolves in the surface ocean, it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, increasing ocean acidity and shifting the partitioning of inorganic carbon species towards increased CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon, and decreased concentration of carbonate ion. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the 18th century, surface-ocean acidity has gone up by 30%. The current increase in ocean acidity is a hundred times faster than any previous natural change that has occurred over the last many millions of years. In the case of unabated CO2 emissions the level of ocean acidity will increase to three times the preindustrial level by the end of this century." (my emphasis)
Chemists who actually work in this field think that ocean acidification is an important problem. Your assertions are not scientificly based. Next time try to find a reference that supports your position.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:02 AM on 10 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
I think that part of the problem is that many people are not clear on the difference between carbon emissions and concentration of atmospheric CO2. I understand the difference but not how they are related.
The Keeling curve is currently rising at an accelerating rate. It has to stop rising and instead trend downwards to 350 ppm at least. But what would our emissions be doing while this change occurs?
I envisage five states of the Keeling curve:
(1) CO2 concentration rises at an accelerating rate
(2) CO2 concentration rises at a constant rate
(3) CO2 concentration rises but at a decreasing rate
(4) CO2 concentration stops rising and remains constant
(5) CO2 concentration starts decreasing
For each of these five states, what would our corresponding emissions be doing? Please enlighten me.
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aleks at 08:19 AM on 10 November 2017What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?
As a chemist, I'd like to comment the author's statement: "As humans emit more greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, in particular) into the atmosphere, the chemistry of ocean change". At first, it's necessary to clarify that in IPCC list of greenhouse gases only CO2 can dissolve in water and change its acidity (not CH4, N2O, CFCs, etc.). So, the question is: how can the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere to impact on the ocean acidity?
Simple calculations based on Henry constant for CO2 in pure water and H2CO3 dissociation constant show that change in CO2 partial pressure from 0.0003 to 0.0004 atm (that takes place in last 100 - 150 years) will decrease pH by 0.06. Indeed, this difference will be negligibly small because the solubility CO2 in saline water is less than in pure water, and ocean water contains carbonate-hydrocarbonate and boric acid-borate buffer systems. The composition of ocean water and its acidity are examined in detail in the comprehensive work of the Europen Comission
https://www.iaea.org/ocean-acidification/act7/Guide%20best%20practices%20low%20res.pdf
Estimation of pH in this work (p.26) gives the value of 8.1 (not acidic!). Of course, the local temporary acidification of ocean is possible, but it is caused not by CO2, but by SO2 and NO2 that are much more acidic than CO2.
Moderator Response:[TD] See the multipart series "OA Not OK."
[DB] Also, please see "Seawater Equilibria" and "The Physical Chemistry of Carbon Dioxide Absorption".
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NorrisM at 05:33 AM on 9 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger @ 250
Thanks for the explanation. I suspect that when I get through this thread I will tackle Chapters 3 and 13 in IPCC AR5. Probably should read those first but this is easier reading (I do not want to say more entertaining).
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william5331 at 05:22 AM on 9 November 2017What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?
Another thing that jelly fish teach us is that we have destroyed our population of sea turtles (who eat jelly fish). We continue to destroy them by not protecting their nesting sites and by letting plastic bags enter the oceans which they mistake for jelly fish. The jelly fish then hoover up the larvae of all our commercial species which have a planktonic stage (virtually all of them). Unless we smarten up and set aside more and more of our Exclusive Economic Zones as strictly no fishing areas, eliminate plastic bags and protect turtle nesting sites, we better get used to eating jelly fish.
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Oriolus Traillii at 22:54 PM on 8 November 2017Temp record is unreliable
Link http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Satellite_Temperatures.png is broken (see "other lines of evidence for rising temperatures", bullet point 3 under "intermediate")
Moderator Response:[DB] Fixed; thanks! (I also fixed the missing video on that page)
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MA Rodger at 20:12 PM on 8 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM @249.
As you become interested in IPCC AR5 Fig 3.14, do note that the three data sets presented are derived from tidal gauges using two significantly different approaches. The first used by Jevrejeva et al (2008) attempts to reconstruct a global coastal SLR and the second used by Church & White (2011) and Ray & Douglas (2011) attempts to reconstruct a global ocean SLR. The full set of approaches employed across all the various studies is listed out in AR5 Section 3.7.2.
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NorrisM at 14:19 PM on 8 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
John Hartz @ 248 and squishy
I think I will get back to reading the balance of this thread. Indian Ocean discussion interesting but seems to suggest that talking about an average SLR over all oceans is challenging.
DB could have been clearer but I see that he was clearly referring only to the contribution from ice sheets.
Do you agree that the IPCC reference to the 1920-1950 period had to be referencing the two studies other than Church & White shown in the 3.14 graph?
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John Hartz at 13:41 PM on 8 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Norris M: As I stated updthread, sea level rise is a very complex subject matter.
One of the major complexities of sea level rise is that it is not uniform throughout the global ocean system. The following article dramtically illustrates this key fact:
Scientists may have solved mystery of rapidly rising Indian Ocean sea level by Olivia Trani, GeoSpace, AGU Blogosphere, Nov 7, 2017
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Eclectic at 11:30 AM on 8 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Cero, I suspect you and I have very little difference when it comes to realities (rather than abstractions).
I agree that it would be completely inappropriate to describe President Trump as a political extremist. Trump is sui generis, and does not really fit on the left/right political spectrum, despite his numerous "extremist" policy efforts (as pointed out by Nigelj in #25 final two paragraphs). But I am getting off topic!
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Daniel Bailey at 10:25 AM on 8 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
"235 is clearly talking about ice sheet contribution to SLR, NOT total SLR"
Yes, indeed. And that the ongoing mass losses from our dwindling, land-based ice sheets are now the dominant contributor to SLR...and will continue to be so, for longer than any now alive shall live.
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wili at 09:42 AM on 8 November 2017What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?
Thanks for this excellent piece. For those who want to read further on jellyfish, they might start with the cleverly named "Spineless."
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nigelj at 08:09 AM on 8 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Cero, and yes thanks for your rational debate as well. Makes a change from the usual war zone of opinion.
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squishy at 07:34 AM on 8 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Daniel Bailey @ 235 is clearly talking about ice sheet contribution to SLR, NOT total SLR.
"Ancillary to Bob Loblaw's fine comment at 232, previous research has shown that ice sheet mass contributions from land-based ice sheets have exceeded thermal expansion as the biggest contributor to global sea level rise. Recent research just submitted now has isolated the individual ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise.
Per Hsu and Velicogna 2017, between April 2002 and October 2014 global mean sea level grew by about 1.8 millimeters per year, with 43 percent of the increased water mass coming from Greenland, 16 percent from Antarctica, and 30 percent from mountain glaciers.
Hsu and Velicogna 2017 - Detection of Sea Level Fingerprints derived from GRACE gravity data"
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nigelj at 06:00 AM on 8 November 2017We have every reason to fear Trump’s pick to head NASA
Yes Bridinstine may change his mind when he talks to the real experts. We can only hope. Trump might then fire him but may find whomever he appoints ultimately has the same reaction! Think the Russian investigation.
A lot of climate sceptical people probably get their information mostly from radio talkback and denialist websites and third hand distorted information from friends and associates etc, or the maintream media (cnn etc) or Al Gores book which was ok, but over simplified a few issues. And some people are so intensely partisan they would dismiss his book on that basis, sadly to say. The end result is they often get very poor quality information.
What convinced me we were altering the climate was graphs and data on solar trends, cosmic ray trends, etc that sort of thing. Bridinstine will hopefully get exposed to this sort of material and some expert commentary.
I would love the mainstream media do more to show relationship of temperatures to solar trends etc because the first thing ppeople ask is could it be natural causes? It has to be answered convincingly. The general media are probably are afarid of over complicating things with data and graphs, but over simplification can be a bad idea.
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nigelj at 05:34 AM on 8 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Cero @24, yes ok the 20% - 40% is unexplained. I recall seeing some other source saying about 25% somewhere was gender discrimination.
But its hard to measure the gender discrimination component accurately, and we agree it is at least a smaller component of the overall problem.
But how much smaller? I would say its still a very significant component although my evidence is a bit anecdotal and partial as follows:
For example in New Zealand we get a few cases of gender discrimination going through the courts each year so it does happen. Its a hard thing to prove, so many cases likely dont make the courts. Employers can come up with numerous spurious justifications if they want. I still think its likely about 25% of the problem, but clearly the trend has improved since middle of last century.
It also depends on how you define gender discrimination. We also recently had a case of low paid home care workers employed by the state who are mostly women taking a case to court against the government on the basis they were paid less than other occupations of similar skill levels. They won. Perhaps they were low paid because they were women, or perhaps it was just because the government could get away with it. We will probably never know. This is why having good laws and procedures is more important than over analysing and debating the exact cause.
IMO Trump is not a political extremist as in hard right / conservative or hard left /liberal. His politics are complex and self serving, and have fluctuated all over the place. He used to support the Democrats.
Rather Trumps specific ideas and policy responses tend to be extremist if you think about it. And I have to say for the record almost all his policies and ideas are most unwise.
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NorrisM at 05:30 AM on 8 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger, Bob Loblaw and Michael Sweet,
After more carefully looking at Figure 3.14 in the IPCC Fifth Assessment, I think the real answer to my question is that the IPCC is not relying on Church & White but rather on Jevrejeva el al and Ray and Douglas estimates to come to the conclusion that "similar rates" (ie 3.2 mm/yr) were found in the period of 1920-1950.
So then, just when some papers are coming out with projected 4 mm/yr rates, here we have Daniel Bailey at 235, in the course of discussing that there is a larger contribution to SLR from ice sheets rather than thermal expansion he states as follows:
"Per Hsu and Velicogna 2017, between April 2002 and October 2014 global mean sea level grew by about 1.8 millimeters per year"
What gives?
It would seem that there is a lot of disagreement on one of these basic issues, namely, how much SLR are we experiencing?
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william5331 at 04:39 AM on 8 November 2017We have every reason to fear Trump’s pick to head NASA
Does he take up an office in NASA. Presumably so and he will be in contact with some of the most intelligent, most articulate scientists and engineers of our generation. Sort of like putting a snow ball in a blast furnace. Let's see if he can continue to hold his opinions in the face of a constant bombardment of facts. I bet Trump replaces him when he has his epifany.
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cero at 03:16 AM on 8 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
@nigelj:
I think we've gotten to common ground with your post. I agree with your points.
Just one small side note to the gender pay gap:
The 20-40% is not the part due to discrimination, but the currently unexplained part (which may be - at least in part - due to discrimination). In Wikipedia they talk about discrimination or being "less willing" to negotiate salaries. Also they state, that in the EU direct discrimination is relatively rare due to strong laws against it (but without source).@Eclectic:
(E) Yes, of course, I am talking about some specific first world countries nowadays. It is undisputable that some time ago there was heavy discrimination against women (and still is in many countries).
In fact, even in some first world countries like Japan and South Korea I suspect there is still a lot of discrimination going on.
I get your argument, that having discrimination is in some sense the status quo. So yes, you are right, the research is not conclusive enough to completely dismiss discrimination as a significant factor for the pay gap.
However, I do not reject that there still is real discrimination in some places, but I state that the effect of that is probably much smaller than commonly communicated.
I didn't want to imply, that the pay gap is anecdotical, but your evidence was. I work at a university in Germany by the way, there we get equal pay for equal work by definition. But also for my friends I did not get the impression, that the women are paid less than the men in the same area (just that the percentage of men in engineering is much higher). However, as I said, this is anecdotical. ;-)
(D) "Yet that is not at all to suggest that education (and possibly intelligence) could be the cause of such self-harming & deeply insane stances. But merely that (insane) motivated reasoning is facilitated by above-average education."
Yes, I agree. I just wanted to dismiss your point, that something is probably true if more highly educated people believe it to be true.
"The unreality of the (American) labels "liberal, or conservative" . . . is hampering the (American) ability for logical thought on these issues — and is fanning the false-dichotomy"
Yes, of course. However other labels such as "left" and "right" aren't much better either. I agree, that one should therefore not overuse those categories. However, people who agree with e.g. some "left" positions are more likely to also agree on other "left" positions out of partisanship. So those categories are not completely useless.
(There are btw some people in the US who refer to themselves as "classical liberals" to escape the false dichotomy.)(C) Well, I am unsure in the usage and definition of "extremist", therefore I avoid using that word. In Germany extremists on the right are blatant nazis while extremists on the left are anarchists and communists. His positions are in the spectrum of the main conservative party in Germany (which would ironically be called "liberal" in the US). And that party is mainstream enough to provide the chancellor. :-)
I would even avoid calling Trump an extremist, and he has a much more extremist attitude than James Damore (who didn't vote for Trump and frequently states that he doesn't support the alt-right).
(B) You are right, the idea is disputed. There are some hints, that the effect may only occur in Western countries and therefore may be affected by the environment. (There is also a study from 2008 which supports the hypothesis)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variability_hypothesis#Modern_studies(A) Oh, I didn't say that. But I hope not everything I share at work will eventually be made public. ;-)
Again, thank you both for the rational debate!
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John Hartz at 23:29 PM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
The following comment was deleted by mistake. My bad.
JohnSeers
@236 @yypo
"Short-Term Tide Gauge Records from One Location ..."
I am no expert on sea level rise but the title says it all and says nothing. I hardly need a scientific paper to tell me that short time scales and one location are not enough. Indeed, the first point made in this Skeptical Science article is "A variety of different measurements find steadily rising sea levels over the past century.".
What is the reputation of “Earth Systems and Environment"? And what is your justification for saying "the most authoritative and objective analysis yet of sea-level rise globally"? Just asserting it does not make it so.
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cero at 23:28 PM on 7 November 2017Climate's changed before
Thanks @MA Rodger. That was the kind of explanation I was searching for. :-)
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Eclectic at 22:12 PM on 7 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Cero, a small addendum to (D) above :-
The unreality of the (American) labels "liberal, or conservative" . . . is hampering the (American) ability for logical thought on these issues — and is fanning the false-dichotomy (which seems to be the local mental fashion in recent decades). Unfortunate. But we (including you) must try to rise above that sort of nonsense. Regardless, it all reflects poorly on "the Memo-ist".
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Eclectic at 22:04 PM on 7 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Cero @20 :-
(E) Look at human history: for centuries (millennia, actually!) the subordinate position of women has effected a "pay gap" [in monetary or other reward] for the female of the species. Exceptions were rare. In effect, the "pay gap" has been the default position. I accept your point that the difference is diminishing — in First World countries. There, because the situation is in a state of flux, it becomes less easy to distinguish between true preferences and true discrimination.
But the onus is on you to dismiss the default position by demonstrating the alleged absence of adverse discrimination. (Yet the point is fairly minor, in comparison to AGW . . . so please don't bother to put yourself to much trouble in doing so !!)
I am not sure what region of this planet you inhabit, Cero — but it must surely be a Utopian place, if you regard the "pay gap" as highly anecdotal. ;-)
(D) Pro-homeotherapy & Anti-vaccination stances are often correlated with higher-than-average education levels. Yet that is not at all to suggest that education (and possibly intelligence) could be the cause of such self-harming & deeply insane stances. But merely that (insane) motivated reasoning is facilitated by above-average education. [Sadly, the term "above average education" is a long way short of flattery, for anyone !!)
(C) In part, the [above] is why I say that "the Memo-ist" shows bias and lack of insight into his own nature and also into the nature of humanity/society.
But Cero, please call a spade a spade — and please do go so far as to attest him [having] an extremist attitude. I doubt it would hurt his feelings. Indeed, I strongly suspect he is proud of his extremist attitude [though he would never admit to himself as being anything other than a mainstream thinker ;-) ].
(B) The greater variance of men's IQ . . . is an old idea, and likely of dubious validity. There would be many confounding factors in such assessment — especially decades ago, when there were greater M/F social differences.
(A) I fear for you Cero, if you believe our modern world holds little threat to your privacy. I wish you good luck!
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MA Rodger at 21:17 PM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Bob Loblaw @241,
Further to this Boretti/Parker issue, my understanding as per @240 was that there was one odd date (likely explainable), and all else pointed to a simple name-change. In the Tamino discussion you refer to dated 26Sept2012, there is mention of 3 published comments, one of these from Boretti and one from Parker. The Parker comment is published 6Sept2012 and cites the Boretti comment as being "In Press". The authorship of the Parker comment must then post-date the Boretti comment. And they both must have been published prior to the Tamino post of 26Sept2012.
So here is the one odd date, the Boretti comment publication is dated 11Oct2012. I can but assume this for some reason was written, and published in some form prior to both the Parker comment and the Tamino post but has for some reason acquired a later date of publication in the form linked above. Beyond this, I initially saw no Boretti literature on this subject that post-dates the arrival of Parker.
That did suggest a name change (as per the commenting here on a different paper) and that Parker was not acting as a sock-puppet for Boretti. However....
...Boretti has acted as a sock-puppet for Parker (hat-tip DeSmogBlog who got no sense from Parker when they asked him abot the two names). And Parker also continues to use the name Alberto Boretti when publishing in his day job so Parker continues to be a nom de plume, perhaps used to build a firewall between the responses he gets to his purile writings on climatology (which "would be unacceptable in an undergraduate lab report") from his more serious Mechanical Engineering work (eg here).
Which ever way you see it, Parker/Boretti's use of different names within scientific publications is unacceptable.
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bozzza at 19:51 PM on 7 November 2017Climate's changed before
Answer is: whether it's going too fast or not!
(Did I win?)
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Bob Loblaw at 13:09 PM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
As Mal Adapted points out, the journal this recent paper came out in is quite new.
I noticed that issue #2 has a correction in it, for a paper from issue #1. Although it is to the credit of the authors and journal to correct errors, I hope that this is not the start of a pattern of error-riddled papers.
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Bob Loblaw at 13:00 PM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger:
In addition to the link michael sweet gave to a Tamino article, there are several other blog posts that Tamino has done on Parker/Boretti's work. A search at Tamino's provides a list.
One of those posts (also linked to in the Tamino post michael points us to) has more details on the paper that Boretti/Parker sent in two comments on (both published). Although I haven't read the comments to see if Boretti said anything about Parker, it is clear that Parker did not stop using the Boretti name just because it wasn't his legal name any more.
Perhaps he just forgot some of the tnings he wanted to comment on when he sent in the first comment, and then forgot he'd already sent in a comment using his other name when he sent in the second comment.
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MA Rodger at 08:42 AM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
michael sweet @239,
I think it is more correct to state that "Albert Parker" was known as "Alberto Boretti" and that at some point prior to September 2012, as confirmed by the University of Ballarat on October 1st 2012, "Alberto Boretti ... changed his name to Albert Parker." Of course, this allows Parker to say nice things about Boretti. But is there actually evidence of Boretti returning to say nice things about Parker?
And let us not forget Parker's co-author in this allegedly "most authoritative and objective analysis yet of sea-level rise globally" who is an octogenarian with a bit of a problem accepting there is significant ice loss from the Greenland & Antarctic ice caps.
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nigelj at 08:39 AM on 7 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Cero @19
Thank's for your response. I dont have the time for in depth response, but here are the essential things to me:
I still think the memo writers position is essentially and mainly that biological and deep seated temperamental differences are the main issues in this particular career choice.
He has provided a couple of peer reviewed papers, but thay could be non typical and other research might find something different. Refer to my prior comment that he needs to look at full range of evidence. Its not totally clear if women preferring people jobs is biological or learned.
The evidence in the articles I linked to is actually pretty compelling. However ultimately we dont know for sure either way. It may be a combination of all these factors biological differences, learned differences, barriers, and perceptions etc.
But the bottom line is the memo writer made a claim he hasnt been able to prove adequately, and its on a contentious matter. This puts him in a difficult position, especially as she did it in work time and spread it around the office. It could be interpreted as spreading sexist opinion. If he was writing a book, no problem he can claim what he likes.
He did make a number of political comments about marxism, liberal media bias etc. I think that is unusual material to be circulating in office time at a technology company and rather inappropriate, and his views are pretty dubious as well.
I accept he made several other good points as you noted, but these get lost once he started ranting about liberals in the media. I dont actually see many liberals at Fox. And this is the problem, once the issue is policised it gets argumentative, and away from the issue of women in technology
Regarding the gender pay gap, we do have a reasonable idea of cause. The main factor appears to be career choices women make and just low paying jobs in some industries. Gender discrimination appears to be about 25% of the problem. Read the research linked on wikipedia.
However I dont think it matters what the exact proportionality is, gender discrimination is still a part of the problem, and is easy to address with appropriate laws, and we have those in my country and they work quite well. I assume America has some sort of laws.
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michael sweet at 07:06 AM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
yppo: "Albert Parker" or "Alberto Boretti", the nome de plume that he sometimes writes under, is well known to make up his data on sea level rise. Please suggest a reason we should listen to his prattle now? (for those new to science, writing under two names in considered dishonest in science. "Alberto Borelli" has written positive comments about "Albert Parker's" work.)
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Mal Adapted at 06:58 AM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
yppo: "the most authoritative and objective analysis yet of sea-level rise globally."
Sorry, I'm skeptical. Your citation is to the second of two issues of a brand new journal. From the 'Preface' to the first issue, published three months ago:
It is our great pleasure to present the inaugural issue of our newly launched scientific journal “Earth Systems and Environment,” the official journal of King Abdulaziz University, which has now become a reality with Springer Nature in Germany. Our main objective is to establish very high standards for the journal so as to support research and innovation in the greater Middle East region and to promote the exchange of scientific knowledge between local scientists in the region and the international community.
With all due respect to King Abdulaziz and his namesake University, its new house organ has yet to establish how 'authoritative' it is. As for whether Short-Term Tide Gauge Records from One Location are Inadequate to Infer Global Sea-Level Acceleration will "finally put this issue to bed", that's up to post-publication peer review to decide.
As an armachair climate scientist, I'm hardly a 'peer' of any working SLR specialist, but I'll offer my two cents. I noted this in the article's Introduction:
The loud divergence between sea-level reality and climate change theory—the climate models predict an accelerated sea-level rise driven by the anthropogenic CO2 emission—has been also evidenced in other works such as Boretti (2012a, b), Boretti and Watson (2012), Douglas (1992), Douglas and Peltier (2002), Fasullo et al. (2016), Jevrejeva et al. (2006), Holgate (2007), Houston and Dean (2011), Mörner 2010a, b, 2016), Mörner and Parker (2013), Scafetta (2014), Wenzel and Schröter (2010) and Wunsch et al. (2007) reporting on the recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise.
Candidly, citing the likes of Mörner and Scafetta to support a claim of "loud divergence between sea-level reality and climate change theory" won't help to "establish very high standards for the journal."
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yypo at 05:30 AM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
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yypo at 05:30 AM on 7 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Just published in December 2017 issue of “Earth Systems and Environment” the most authoritative and objective analysis yet of sea-level rise globally.
Should finally put this issue to bed. The next time you hear about sea-levels rising several feet this century remember there’s no evidence of this rate to date despite the explosion of CO2 since early in the 20th century.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-017-0019-5
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cero at 04:59 AM on 7 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
@Eclectic:
(A) "Yet in this world of rapidly-shrinking privacy (and especially so in the digital world) it seems that an employee of Google (of all places!!) would be very alert to the possibility that any statements made would bob to the surface and see daylight at some stage, sooner or later."
Well, I hope not. Of course, the possibility exists, but if this would be likely, I would live my life in fear. At least I don't see how anyone could blame him for that.
When I hear him in the interviews it at least seems as if he genuinely thought he could start a reasonable, open debate with this document (I would still recommend to listen to the interview linked above).
(B) I get your point. However, the author auf the memo doesn't argue about a difference in general intelligence, but about a difference in behavior.
As a sidenote: Is the statement, that men's IQ shows more variance than women's disputed? I know, that the brain size argument was once there and has been disproved, but I don't know about the IQ variance.
Another sidenote: Yes, of course, the behavior (and therefore the hormones) are irrelevant when talking about the skill for a certain profession. However, it is highly relevant when talking about the number of people who choose a certain profession.
(C) Well, I wouldn't go so far as to attest him an extremist attitude, but at least it shows a conservative touch and maybe not enough insight into sociological theories (on the other hand, I don't have them as well, so who am I to judge).
(D) You are right, the American terms of "liberal" and "conservative" are quite different from the meanings in Europe. But I think one should interprete his statements in an American context.
About the 95%: For this he cited the following. https://heterodoxacademy.org/problems/
They state, that the 95% is the number of liberals in the humanities, while the figure from Wikipedia refers to academia as a whole (He also explicitly refers to social sciences in the memo). I ccurrently can't confirm this number, however it seems plausible for me, that the number of left-leaning scientists is higher in the humanities.
"But when we boil it down, the situation is this :- When a commentator finds that 75-90% of highly-educated intelligent people hold a view which is appreciably "to the left" of the commentator's view . . . then very likely it is his view that has a bias — not theirs!"
In general I tend to agree with that. However, if we look at topics such as GMOs or homeopathy there is a tendency to be more anti-scientific, the higher the formal education is. So while higher educated people tend to agree on the scientific consensus, which confirms the left, they do not necessarily tend to agree on scientific consensus for positions on the right. (Sorry, this sentence is awkward)
(E) "But look around, Cero, within the USA and internationally too — for women, the "zero pay gap" is the exception, rather than the rule, for equal-work jobs."
That seems highly anecdotic. If I look around in my area, I don't see women getting paid less for the same work with the same qualification etc. I don't deny, that there are some, but I would rather rely on scientific data than on anecdotes. And the scientific evidence for a significant difference due to discrimination is rather weak.
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John Hartz at 04:57 AM on 7 November 2017We have every reason to fear Trump’s pick to head NASA
Recommended supplemental reading:
Study Says Public's Politics Are Correlated With Climate Change Opinion. They Shouldn't Be. by Marshall Shepard, Forbes, Nov 1, 2017
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Graydrake at 04:51 AM on 7 November 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #44
From SKS spotlights
"C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers such as carbon dioxide and impacts, for example, reducing glaciers. The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of sectors."
From a science perspective, shouldn't an assessment of key indicators be used to develop, amend or confirm policy; rather than be directed at supporting past conclusions.
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cero at 04:24 AM on 7 November 2017What does a sexist Google engineer teach us about women in science?
Thank you for your responds. I'm sorry it took me some time to answer you.
@nigelj:
"He basically claimed a lack of women at google and technology related companies was due to "biological differences" between men and women"
No, he claims that it may be partly due to biological differences. Primarily he claims, that there are many non-bias causes of the gender gap. For this it doesn't really matter whether women choose to work in some other field because of biological reasons or because of deep-lying cultural reasons. However, you are right, that he sees the psychological differences as primarily biological."and that women were temperamentally unsuited to detailed work of this kind."
No, he doesn't. He says that there is a statistical shift between men and women in behavior, which may have an influence on this work. He never says that women are generally unsuited to this work, he even made a graphic just to underline that point.
"He presented no peer reviewed research papers or text books to back his claim, [...] He really just expressed an uninformed opinion."
Have you read the full (original) version of the memo or the stripped down one on gizmodo? In the full version he links to several research papers. You can find the full version here:
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3914586/Googles-Ideological-Echo-Chamber.pdf
"I have done some university level psychology, and know of no consensus in any of the sciences that would say career choices stem from biological differences, or evolutionary psychology."
No, but there is a consensus, that biology affects behavior in all kind of areas. And it is not implausible to assume, that general behavior and career choices are interrelated (In fact, that is part of the core of sociological theories as well).
"I agree biology and psychology are interelated, its all chemistry ultimately, but this does not mean biology explains this specific difference until you prove it does. Ironically you might find biology makes girls better suited to technology work, and other factors keep them away."
Yes, I completely agree. It is just more convenient to assume that the status quo reflects biology in some way. However, until we have more detailed studies, this may be the best basic assumption. I would see those who argue the opposite in the obligation to provide evidence.
"And more compelling is the reason I already gave. The lack of women in computer technology is easily explained by a lack of computer science graduates related to 1) a long standing perception its a "mans world" and 2) a preference for things like journalism etc."
You are right. The only difference between your opinion and the author's is the reason for the preferences. And he states, that there is evidence, that those are partly biological. However, this doesn't change much for the consequences.
"The memo writer appears to be driven a lot by ego, ignorance and politics. This has diminished any good points he made."
Why do you think so? Have you seen any interviews with him? To me he seems quite humble and also quite insecure.
"I go along with Eclectic, given what we know it seems good to have as even a mix as possible of women and men in technology, business etc. But I dont like forced quotas, and instead it should be encouraged and make sure we remove barriers and prejudice."
In the section "Non-discriminatory ways to reduce the gender gap", the author of the memo argues exactly for this position. He says, there are some differences in behavior and the company should adjust to make the workspace more inclusive instead of being male-centric.
"Maybe there are more liberals in media or academia, however I'm not sure why this is a problem, or what you would do about it."
I don't think anyone should do anything about it. But it is sensible to be aware of this bias whenever academia argues about highly-political subjects. Especially in the soft sciences many results depend on interpretation and this may be affected by a political bias through known effects such as confirmation bias.
"The gender pay gap is a simple fact, generally around 10% . It's simply an average across companies and obviously could vary from company to company. I dont know why anyone would deny that which is obvious and easy to measure."
That is, because people mean different things when they talk about the pay gap. In the media the pay gap is often used as a short form for "pay gap due to discrimination".
"We cant change choices women consciously make and I have no problem if women prefer certain professions, but we can minimise blatant gender discrimination with strong laws, and do things to ensure people in services industries get reasonable wages."
I completely agree. But one should be aware, that there is almost no reliable data on how large the difference due to discrimnation is. It is hard to tell from which point on one is fighting a phantom.
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John Hartz at 01:48 AM on 7 November 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #44
Recommended supplemental reading:
How the Trump White House Wound Up Releasing Dire Climate Report by Eric Roston & Christopher Flavelle, Bloomberg News, Nov 6, 2017
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Daniel Bailey at 22:23 PM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Ancillary to Bob Loblaw's fine comment at 232, previous research has shown that ice sheet mass contributions from land-based ice sheets have exceeded thermal expansion as the biggest contributor to global sea level rise. Recent research just submitted now has isolated the individual ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise.
Per Hsu and Velicogna 2017, between April 2002 and October 2014 global mean sea level grew by about 1.8 millimeters per year, with 43 percent of the increased water mass coming from Greenland, 16 percent from Antarctica, and 30 percent from mountain glaciers.
Hsu and Velicogna 2017 - Detection of Sea Level Fingerprints derived from GRACE gravity data
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william5331 at 18:16 PM on 6 November 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44
I don't get it. Presumably the air pollution that comes from Chinese factories is primarily particulate material and sulfur. If so, why don't they simply buy off-the-shelf equipment from the USA and reverse engineer it. America cleaned up the same problem about 70 years ago with electrostatic precipitators and sulfur scrubbers in the smoke stacks of power plants, smelters and other polluting industries.
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michael sweet at 10:31 AM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Norrism:
Bob Loblaw and M.A. Rodger have address some of the data analysis. If you read Tamino's post you will get a more detailed account. The IPCC does not state how their data was calculated. The method is undoubtedly somewhere in the references. It looks to me like they used a short analysis period, but it may be due to the data sources they used.
It appears that the IPCC graph that Koonan used was graphed with the 18 year data point at the start of the 18 year period (Noonan did not copy the caption so I could not tell from his graph). That means the data reached to 2011 and was up to date when it was written. My last post incorrectly dated the graph.
We know that sea level rise has increased rapidly for the last 6 years. That means the sea level now is about 20% greater than it was in 2011 when the IPCC data was written. Comparing to 1950 it is less likely that 1950 was as fast as today than in 2011 since sea lefel rise is greater.
In addition, papers have evaluated all the data sets graphed in the IPCC reports and some of those data sets have been updated. That would change the data (I am not sure what those changes are). In order to make a valid comparison today you need to use the updated data sets.
The writers of the CSSR reports used the updated data sets to reach their conclusions. They reached a valid scientific conclusion. Koonan cherry picked old data because he thought it supported his preconceived notions. His claims are not scientificly valid. The CSSR report supersedes the IPCC report because it is a more recent in depth review.
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MA Rodger at 08:44 AM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM @230.
Yous seem to be asking two things. Firstly, why do we not see "similarly high rates" to 3,2mm/yr(+/-0.4mm/yr) in the Tamino graph? Secondly, what caused the rate of SLR 1920-50 to be higher than periods before and after?
The methods used to create the Tamino graph have been explained @231/232 but this is probably not enough for you.
To address your first question concerning the IPCC quote, be aware that the quote originates in the Executive Summary of AR5 Chapter 13 so is not what I would call definitive, and indeed the quote you give cites references elsewhere within AR5. (You call this quote "fact" which is seriously wrong.)
If you refer to Section 3.7.4 you will see that it is not just Church & White that are being cited and that in Fig 3.14 Church & White data yields the lowest SLR through this 1920-50 period, hitting a momentary peak of just 2.3mm/yr from 18-year lnear trend calculations. (It is not clear from AR5 but this is certainly Church & White (2011) not C&W(2006) which would yield significantly higher levels of SLR through these years. Note C&W(2011) plot 16-year linear trends which also peak at 2.3mm/yr.) The Tamino graph uses differing methods and yields a peak of 2.1mm/yr through these year.
Your second question has no definite answer. Note that C&W(2011) speculate that the ice-melt contribution in 1920-50 could have been greater than is usually estimated. And if you look at zonal temperature records (ie GISTemp below), the place with the big temperature during the early 20th century was the high northern latutudes that do conveniently have ample ice to melt.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:44 AM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
With respect to acceleration, and whether it will continue, the figure I included in comment 222 shows that Greenland and Antarctica are having an increasingly large contribution. Ice sheets like these are slow to react, and they are just getting going in response to recent warming. The major question on what will happen by 2100 is "what will happen with Greenland and Antarctica?"
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Bob Loblaw at 05:39 AM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM:
In the Tamino link provided above, he states:
"If we smooth the data, a lot depends on the time scale for smoothing. Too short a time scale will tell us about the ubiquitous wiggles, which is not what we’re interested in."
In the figure just after that statement, he shows the smooth fit he produced:
Note that Tamino's curve does not follow every "ubiquitous wiggle". Less smoothing will give greater variation in rate over shorter time intervals. The IPCC report does not state (that I can see from a quick glance) how short a time interval they used to get "similar" rates. Section 13.2.2.1 does, however, state:
"Interannual and decadal-scale variability is superimposed on the long-term MSL trend, and Chapter 3 noted that discrepancies between the various published MSL records are present at these shorter time scales.
and
"Because of the presence of low-frequency variations (e.g., multi-decadal variations seen in some tidal gauge records; Chambers et al. (2012)), sea level acceleration results are sensitive to the choice of the analysis time span.
If you make the time span short enough, you'll get twice-daily tides with very high rates of change. Not "sea level rise", though. The IPCC is probably looking at shorter time scales than Tamino.
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Mal Adapted at 05:29 AM on 6 November 2017Why people around the world fear climate change more than Americans do
I suspect there there's a strong reaction dynamic at play in US politics where because Democrats advocate for climate change policies so stridently, to the point of demonizing Republicans or conservatives who oppose it, people in those groups push back more on the political aspect and party line division rather than on any scientific basis.
This is a straw man argument. Individual Democrats who 'advocate for climate change policies so stridently' may get pushback against themselves. Blaming those particular obnoxious Democrats for the refusal by "Republicans and conservatives" to discuss any climate change policy at all, doesn't help with "keeping the discussion fact based and discussion oriented".
I'm not convinced ddost4827 is actually interested in dialogue.
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NorrisM at 04:29 AM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
michael sweet @ 218, Bob Loblaw @ 219 and MA Rodger and John Hartz
I have read the references in the above citations and I am still confused as to the statement by the IPCC in the 2013 Assessment which, again, has the following summary:
"It is very likely that the global mean rate was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 2010 for a total sea level rise of 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m. Between 1993 and 2010, the rate was very likely higher at 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr–1; similarly high rates likely occurred between 1920 and 1950. {3.7.2, 3.7.4, 5.6.3, 13.2.1, 13.2.2, Figure 13.3}"
The graph of Church & White presented in Tamino and reproduced in michael sweet's post at 227 seem to be inconsistent with a statement of fact in the 2013 IPPC statement. The rate shown in the Church & White graph (is this fully Church & White or an extension added to a Church & White graph that ended earlier?) does not show a similar rate in 1920 to 1950 at approximately 3.2 mm/yr. Surely this is what "similar high rates" has to mean.
Responding to Bob Loblaw, of course new information on sea level rises since 2013 are relevant but it does not explain this statement by the IPCC made in 2013. At that time it was either right or wrong. From what I can gather, the new CCSR report effectively repeats this analysis in the main report but does not reference this in the Executive Summary which is Koonin's complaint.
Moderator @ 224
I have not fully read the Mooney discussion nor have I got through this entire thread which I intend to do as part of my understanding on this issue.
But I thought I should respond to what seems to be an inconsistency between the Church & White graph and what the IPCC (and I believe the CCSR) have said about this period 1920- 1950.
I thought I was going to get an explanation of why the rate during 1920-1950 was close to the same but the answer comes back that the rate was no where near 3.2 mm/yr at all during this latter period. If all the IPCC was referencing was a short term acceleration during this period at the same rate for a much shorter time than the 30 years, then that could have been made a lot clearer because that is not what was stated. But that is not even supported by the Church & White graph.
I certainly agree that Koonin's most recent statements would suggest that he is not looking to becoming the Chair of any Red Team Blue Team panel unless Pruitt intends to have Co-Chairs, one from each side of this issue.
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MA Rodger at 03:23 AM on 6 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
This Koonin blather raised by NorrisM includes a WSJ opinion piece by Koonin (paywalled) entitled "A Deceptive New Report on Climate", this concerning the draft of a Climate Science Special Report (CSSR). Blog Mom Judy Curry has a post suppling some excerpts from the WSJ item and from the Koonin memo to the authors of the CSSR, the memo itself being also posted at Judy's site (where NorrisM linked to it @221).
The Koonin criticism sets out to fudge the inevitability of serious SLR by branding SLR rates since 1993 as "not statistically different from those during the first half of the 20th Century," this description being required so as to "not misleadingly alarm the non‐expert reader into believing that recent rates of rise are unprecedented." And he also wants mention of 2m SLR by 2100 setting out that this would require a rate of 24mm/yr so as to "help illustrate for the non‐expert reader just how dramatic the projected changes are." Or should that be 'how unbelievable'?
So here we have somebody in denial over AGW-induced SLR.
And he is not the only one. In the same post, Judy links to a slide show of her own titled "Sea Level Rise: Past, Present & Future" which also shows signs of denial. And Judy's prediction of global SLR 2017-50 is presented on Slide 35 as 3" to 8" which works out as an average SLR over the period of 4.2mm/yr(+/-2mm).
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michael sweet at 21:20 PM on 5 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Norrism:
Your post is a perfect example of why scientists do not want to engage in a "Red-Blue" team discussion with Koonin as moderator, as you have suggested.
When one team deliberately falsifies the data the public thinks that scientists have not reached consensus. In this example of sea level rise, everyone who has looked at the data agrees that sea level rise is twice as much now as it was in 1950.
Koonan is not an acceptable person to moderate such a debate since he has demonstated that he in completely uninformed of the data and deliberatly misinforms his audience. There is no excuse for Noonan's use of data that is 12 years out of date to make claims of current sea level rise. If Noonan wants to make public criticism of scienitsts he is required to use the current data that was in the report he criticized.
The analysis from Dr. Nerem, linked at 216, gives enough data to realize Koonin's claim is false on its face. I linked the article containing Tamino's graph there also. You have been given the actual data. Every time you use Curries' blog as a reference everyone here knows that you are misleading them. Why have you not learned Curry is not a credible source from your previous postings of false information using her as the source? Do lawyers always continue to use references after they have been shown to be incorrect several times?
Koonin cites the IPCC to support his lie that sea level rise is approximately the same now as in 1950. The intent of the CSSR is to update data in the IPCC report. The scientists who wrote the CSSR are required to use the most up to date data. In addition, the data in the IPCC report was 7 years old when that report was written 6 years ago. Do we really need to reargue data that is 13 years old when current data is available?
Do you lawyers sit around and endlessly argue if it is fair to count blacks as only 3/5 of a vote and whether separate but equal facilities are acceptable??? Why do you ask scientists to reargue current sea level rise based on 13 year old data?
As I paraphrased from your post: " It is this attitude of the "denier side" which drives scientists crazy. If the facts were honestly stated on both sides then you would not get this kind of dismissive reaction from scientists."
Raise your game. You have been posting here at SkS for a long time and you still post these obviously false claims from sources you have been repeatedly shown are spouting lies. It is time consuming to find the actual data to respond to these lies.
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