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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recommended supplemental reading:

The science behind the U.S.’s strange hurricane ‘drought’ — and its sudden end by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Sep 7, 2017

6 Questions About Hurricane Irma, Harvey and Climate Change by Sabrina Shankman, InsideClimate News, Sep 6, 2017

John Hartz at 09:18 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Tom 13: The NOAA article that you have extracted quotes from is:

Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results posted on the website of NOAA's Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). It was last revised on Aug 30, 2017.

The article has been repeatedly cited and linked to by more than one mainstream climate scientist who has been interviewed by the media about the climate change-hurricane* connection in recent articles about Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Katia.

*In this context hurricane means a tropical cyclone occuring in the North Atlantic basin only. Hurricanes also occur in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Tropical cyclones occuring in the Pacific Ocean of the southern hemisphere are called Typhoons.

Philippe Chantreau at 09:05 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Of course, and yet hurricane scientists have never seen a picture like the current one: Irma, the largest hurricane known to form in the Atlantic basin, Katia, which formed in the Gulf, and Jose. Meanwhile, the Northwest is seeing a horrendous fire season, with the largest fire in Southwest Oregon at around 176000 acres. My own neighborhood is covered in ash from the nearby Eagle Creek fire. Of course, there is also the drought in Europe, which has compromised the wine harvest in France and destroyed corn further to the east. All happening in the samne year. But, it's all good, no statistically significant trend, we're cool.

I note that NorrisM has not answered my proposal. Such a deal was imposed to us before, albeit its only reason to exist were the disgusting fees gobbled by the finance barons who caused it. The last time that the World blew 15 trillions was in 2008 and we have nothing to show for it. Interestingly, it was not a disaster like the 1929 crisis, which goes to show that such an investment, if it had been directed to do some good, would have been possible to absorb with relatively little damage. But no, doing anything serious about energy transition will ruin the economy. What a joke.

Capitalism is likely the best way to run societies. It can work only if well regulated, by laws that aim at the public good. Unfettered capitalism is a loosing ideology that has already been slapped in the face multiple times by reality, yet its advocates are in complete denial and continue to try to beat the world into submitting to their madness.

Tom13 at 08:29 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/pre1900s/1780/

Good article on the monster hurricane of 1780

perhaps the strongest in recorded history

Interesting statment from the NOAA www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).

The NOAA (via the vecchi study 2008) go on to state :

However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is not significantly distinguishable from zero (Figure 2).

In summary - over the course of 150+ years, all during a period of warming, the level of hurricane activity is statistically indistiquisable from over those years.

scaddenp at 07:52 AM on 8 September 2017

New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

The word I think is "exergy" not "exenergy". In North America, I believe it is more common to call this term "available work". And no, it is not net exergy out. You can think of it as the "quality" of the energy. My favourite picture for understanding it, is think of waterfall. At top of the waterfall you have a lot of potential energy which you could usefully convert into electricity etc. At the bottom of the waterfall, you have same about of energy manifested in heating the pool slightly and a bit sound wave energy. Your ability to get useful work from this however is sharply diminished. You can express this in terms of loss of exergy. Exergy is a 2nd law tool, bound to the change in entropy.

Because exergy is not conserved, it provides a much better way to study energy efficiency than 1st law method. I use it in thermal power station analysis. The overall efficiency consideration in say a coal station is the "heat rate" - the ratio of power out to fuel in . However, this is no simple relationship between overall efficiency and efficiency of individual components. Another way to do the calculation however is to calculate the exergetic loss from fuel into electricity out. The beauty of this analysis is that sum of exergetic losses of each component (boiler, heaters, turbine etc) is the total exergetic loss. If efficiency drops, you can quickly see which component has had an increase in exergy losses and diagnose the problem.

And yes, pumped hydro is pumping water back up to the hydro. Note that in systems with a large amount of hydro, (eg NZ), you can use hydro as "battery", without the pumping. When other forms of generation are cheap (wind blowing strong or lots of sun), then hydros stop generating and reservoirs fill. Come night or calm, then hydros switch in.

nigelj at 07:23 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Philippe Chantreau @22

I agree the legal process is different from science. The legal process is more based around appearance and rhetoric and a good deal of subtle intimidation. Lawyers are hard working people, but you cant really transfer their world onto science.

I have also been involved in various court cases, all civil. I have employed several lawyers, and know the process intimately. I have no legal training, and have also represented myself several times in court and won every time. (wouldnt do it again, too stressful and risky). The legal process while evidence based, pushes various limits that have abolutely no place in the world of science, and would cause massive confusion and lead us down the wrong path.

The free market is a powerful and useful tool, but isn't good with dealing with environmental externalities. Only the law can deal with those. Once people are personally accountable for problems the best choices will be made.

RickG at 07:18 AM on 8 September 2017

The Trump administration wants to bail out failed contrarian climate scientists

Basically, Congress already has a red/blue team debate and has had for years. The blue team invites the most experienced and knowledgeable climate scientists, while the red team invites only AGW skeptics, some of which have no science background at all. Its called the Committee on Science, Space and Technology.

nigelj at 06:54 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

One Planet @21, I think you are probably taking the term warmist too seriously or earnestly. It's just a label and people do fall into various groups.

I think you have raised a good point to emphasise that climate science is a large body of carefully considered evidence, and no robust reason has been presented to question the IPCC process. We base human progress on trust in institutions, and its a sign of panic and desperation when people want alternative procedures like a red blue team, and this defeats the whole purpose and value of one global body with a consistent clear message for everyone one way or the other.

NorrisM is suffering from a lot of confirmation bias. Its ironic because the IPCC reports go to almost extreme lengths to evaluate and list all the research and carefully state which things they are sure of and which they arent. The whole IPCC mechanism has done a good job of avoiding confirmation bias in its own work.

nigelj at 06:24 AM on 8 September 2017

I was an Exxon-funded climate scientist

The very idea that fossil fuel money funds climate research is abhorrent to me. Its a PR stunt by fossil fuel companies, and wont create a good impression with the public, and it could subconsciously bias some researchers towards a sceptical point of view. Bad idea.

NorrisM at 04:58 AM on 8 September 2017

New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

One further term I am not clear on is "pump storage". Does this refer to storage of renewable power by pumping water vertically into a reservoir to be used when needed effectively converting it to hydro power?

michael sweet at 03:43 AM on 8 September 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #35

This Guardian op-ed discusses attribution of global warming problems (like sea level rise) to individual companies and whether those companies should have to pay for the proportion of the damage they cause.

For example, they say ExxonMobile, Chevron and BP by themselves are responsible for 6% of sea level rise because of their CO2 emissions. During Sandy in New York City alone, over $2 billion dollars of damage was caused by higher sea level. Should these companies have to pay for the damage they are known to have caused?

Philippe Chantreau at 03:32 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

NorrisM was not impressed by Michael Mann's testimony and thereby reveals why the red/blue team idea is complete horse puckey. The powers that stand from financially benefitting from energy status quo know this very well and will make sure that they will have the best public face to line up, facts and weight of the evidence be dammed. This red team/blue team approach is a complete perversion of reason. It is not surprising that it came from lawyers, as this represents their modus operandi, and reality often takes a back seat in the courtroom. It's about winning, not about reality. I know that from first hand experience, I've been there.

Harvey's costs is projected to be in the order of 180 billions. I'm sure the free market fanatics who reign over the area would have scoffed at the idea of spending that much over 20 years for renewable energy development and flood resilience. Simply because this was not going to be directly money in their pockets. The World is governed by ogres who do not give a damn about the future. The more time goes by, the more I agree with OPOF.

Say, NorrisM, if I told you that there is a possible fix to this whole climate thing, but it will cost about 15 trillion worldwide and they will have to be forked over during a period of just 2-3 years, would you agree to try?

Then if I told you that it may not work out and there is a chance we could have nothing to show for the try, would you go for it? Of course, the operators spending that money will be held free of any harm if it goes belly up. What do you think? Deal?

One Planet Only Forever at 00:37 AM on 8 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

NorrisM,

It appears that you have not properly understood my comments.

Scientific Concensus is a proper term. I use it. "Warmist" is a term I state should not be used since those people are actually Denier/Delayers. "Warmist" has actually be used to describe people who admit there may be some impact from CO2 increases but far less than the scientific concensus undersranding.

I have re-read your post that promoted my replies and confirmed my understanding of your unacceptable use of te temr 'rather than scientific concensus'. Your use of the term "Warmist" for the scientific concensus undertsanding is an attempt to denigrate the concensus understanding.

The following are direct quotes from my previous comments you are undeniably aware of and referring to:

"'People who are more fully aware of the existing observations and experience related to climate science and the currently developed and constantly improving best explanation for all of that information'" (Look inrto the context of that quote)

"... climate science is a very robustly developed field of investigation/observation and establishment of a Good Explanations for all of the avaliable information (even though there is more investigation and understanding to be added), the currently developed and presented concensus explanations/understanding regarding the matter should be considered to be "The Objective Understanding/Explanation/Truth of the matter for everyone to understand and accept unless/until some new 'justified and robustly defendable information' is presented that results in Good Reason to revise a part of that developed understanding"."

Reread my posts, and all the other information you have read, setting aside yor personal preferrences for what you want to believe. Otherwise you will continue to misinterpret/misunderstand what you have read and continue to make-up false statements based on your lack of 'proper' understanding (maybe OK for a lawyer, but absolutely not what a Prefessional Engineer, or Professional Lawyer (or any other pursuer of a Profession), would consider Reasonable or Acceptable or Ethical).

Scientific Concensus is a valid term as is Denier/Delayer. Warmist is a term that attempts to put a Good Light onto a Denier/Delayer, an attempt to create a false or misleading impression (and is a terrible 'replacement' for the term 'scientific concensus' regarding the climate science issue you were refrring to - how much warmer will the surface be due to added CO2).

And attempting to claim that a Denier/Delayer is a Skeptic is equally a "false and deliberately misleading claim" (a "lie" if it is made by someone who actually knows better" rather than when made by someone whose personal bias - which they are blind to - has resulted in them not properly understanding something).

nigelj at 17:08 PM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

NorrisM @19

"My understanding was that the IPCC 2013 assessment made it clear that it did not have empirical evidence tying extreme weather events to climate change. If I am incorrect, then, again, my apologies. I will search for my reference for support for what I understood to be their position at that time."

Yes you are quite wrong. The report has empirical evidence that in recent decades heatwaves and heavy rainfall events have already increased. It does not have empirical evidence that hurricanes have changed. It has evidence of many other things as well.

The same report predicts futher increases in heavy rainfall events and that hurricane intensity will increase and droughts will increase.

I have noticed the following. You often quote things without sources and say you will give sources, but just as often don't.

You fill pages with as many denialist myths and slogans you can fit in, over and over even when its not really on topic. Yet you claim you are not a climate science sceptic.

You ask people for clarifications, then never read their sources, always making some excuse you are too busy. You have done it for months. You agree with things, then go back to your original position almost immediately.

You like to create the impression you are just an interested individual, but your rhetoric as I have listed indicates you are more likely some sort of lobbyist, and theres a lot of concern trolling as well.

The frog slowly being boiled alive is a good analogy to climate change. The changes are somewhat incremental and people react accordingly. Mind you some politicians are so dumb sea level could rise a metre in a week, and it would still all be a "chinese conspiracy".

NorrisM at 16:41 PM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Moderator. I would appreciate an explanation of what you mean by term "sloganeering" because I do not think I was just throwing out "slogans".

michael sweet @ 17

If Michael Mann has in the past published papers in areas other than in relation to past climates, then I do apologize. I have read his book on the Climate Wars and I have to admit I was quite impressed with his "balanced' approach. But from that book, which was quite autobiographical, it seemed to me that he had limited his research to attempting to determine what the temperature record had been in the past. I have to say I was not impressed with his testimony before one of the House committees in March of this year which I watched on YouTube. I do not think he is the best public face for the "scientific consensus" side. My apologies to one other contributor (Onr Planet Only Forever) for the use of this term but if someone has a better one, please advise.

nigelj @ 18

My understanding was that the IPCC 2013 assessment made it clear that it did not have empirical evidence tying extreme weather events to climate change. If I am incorrect, then, again, my apologies. I will search for my reference for support for what I understood to be their position at that time.

ubrew @ 12

I fully understand your point that it is difficult to get the public to focus on climate change if they look out the window and everything looks pretty good. I understand the temptation to point to extreme natural events to get their attention. I am not sure I agree with the "frog in the saucepan" argument but it is difficult to convince both the public and politicians to take note of things when the effects are so gradual.

Moderator Response:

[JH] You have been repeatedly advised to read and adhere to this site's Comments Policy. Please do so now!

nigelj at 16:30 PM on 7 September 2017

30 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years

The single most significant thing that convinced me we are altering the climate was a list of greenhouse fingerprints. Unfortunatly the popular books on climate change either dont include these, or gloss over them too briefly. It's like a murder mystery finding the incriminating evidence and how it mounts up.

NorrisM at 16:08 PM on 7 September 2017

New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest

MA Rodger @ 73

I am working my way through the Weissbach paper. Using my Latin, I am pretty sure "exenergy" references net energy out. What I am having trouble understanding is the concept of "primary energy". I assume this is referencing an "input" energy measurement but I am not clear what it is referring to. I clearly get the sense that "primary energy" is something that Weissbach thinks is somehow a wrong measurement but I do not understand what he is referring to.

Could you help me out with this?

Thanks NM

nigelj at 16:03 PM on 7 September 2017

30 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years

Bozza @2

"Hollywood has a lot to answer for: it promotes the fast lane lifestyle replete with endless fashionably seasonal changes to "individualised" clothing. Is Hollywood the troll of all trolls that in the end caused Climate Change when all is said and done."

I don't entirely get this, but I admit I'm not an American. I thought hollywood was behind movies and television sit coms. I think that entertainment culture would always have nicely dressed people. It's quite a big leap to say Holloywood are the biggest single factor behind over consuming lifestyles, clothing, cars etc. Hollywood would perhaps certainly be part of all this.

I do agree that our lifestyles include modes of consumption and endless status seeking and materialism, and waste that are a factor in climate change. Totally with you there. But the causes of this are quite complex, and to do with deeply seated drives of human status seeking and pecking orders, that is amplified by the capitalist dynamic, and associated intensive marketing and advertising that now uses finely tuned methods based on psychological research.

It's also related to economic systems like neoliberalism that legitimise greed, competition, and material acquisition, and individualism. Holloywood both symbolises, reinforces and glorifies these trends, but is hardly an originating factor.

I dont know how humanity gets off this treadmill, because its become like an engine, a widespread global system of values and mechanisms. But as my parents used to say, theres a lot to be said for balance and moderation, and they were right. Im still learning this lesson myself. One needs self awareness and restraint.

Nobody is forcing anyone to buy half these superfluous, wasteful products. I dont rush out and buy the latest products of everything, even though I can afford to. Having said that I'm no saint have my weak moments of retail therapy!

bozzza at 14:28 PM on 7 September 2017

30 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years

Writing more...

The above link talks about writing more as a way to come up with less short term thinking.

To this end the author of the video should be congratulated for putting forward his considered thoughts which can ony lead to more considered thought in this world. Well done on that count.

bozzza at 14:21 PM on 7 September 2017

30 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years

Sure, even the deniers know that CO2 is the culprit: the main task now is to convince the captains of Industry that the rate of change of Climate Change necessitates serious changes to their industry/s now.

But how seriously, and how seriously fast would they be expected to do such a detrimental thing to their privatised profits? They are going to argue very seriously in order to keep their Jevons-Paradox-induced-money-making-ventures going for aslong as possible. This argument making would include making the science look as vague and alarmist as possible in order to discredit it as much as possible ... that's the politics of making money.

Are the numbers in? What do they say about the rate of change of climate change? How can we be sure this isn't temporary natural variation? How do we know they don't employ more trolls than Putin to go about this work? How do we know it's not Putins troll army itself at work?

Hollywood has a lot to answer for: it promotes the fast lane lifestyle replete with endless fashionably seasonal changes to "individualised" clothing. Is Hollywood the troll of all trolls that in the end caused Climate Change when all is said and done.

To win this battle the populace at large has to start thinking together how to change this large-momentum-system we call the world or vested interests will always win.

Jevons Paradox is generally written so it can apply to any resource... including the populations intelligence and ability to come up with solutions together. Hollywood just dulls us into a trance of becoming ever more "individualistic" and better than our own neighbours so that the rich- read fossil fuled interests- can take advantage and take the cream of our hard earned wages via endlessly transported fashion statements, if not just pure over-indulgence on travel to advertised fashionable destinations- and over time that spells big big money.

In conclusion, the world turns but only at the rate it can keep up with.

(** The heart is ephemeral and looks to attach itself to things and only the sword of wisdom can cut the string of Mara.)

(** ..to put the above another way, I believe Hannibal Lecter once said... via the recall of Agent Starling: "We covet the things we see everyday." This explains Hollywoods roll in all of this. What about the endless morning programs and TV in general: are they not endlessly promoting fashion and perpetual fossil fuel use? We the people must wake up or stop complaining about bad habits that we obviously don't find important enough to give up! Do we really care about our kids? Well, let's get together and demand change and work out what the solution is!)

nigelj at 14:09 PM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

NorrisM, instead of your many questions including affects of climate change on hurricanes etc, why dont you read The IPCC report 2013? You can download this from the IPCC website as below below on the "full report" link. This is the physical science basis, and it has three sections, the very brief summary for policy makers, the technical summary, and the full detail. Its only 1550 pages, nothing for a smart lawyer to read through, ha ha. I have read some parts of it.

www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

This report predicts more intense hurricanes and more rainfall associated with them. Every degree adds about 7% more water vapour so over time climate change will quite substantially increase heavy rainfall events, and has already had a detectable effect. And it's non linear and can have a greater effect than this in localised instances. But theres much more to the effects of climate change on weather, and you need to start reading all of it, because a failure to get the full picture just trips you up over and over, like a simple assumption about M Manns qualifications without checking. This is the problem with reading a few carefully selected bits on denier websites, this once tripped me up.

You keep saying better technology saved lives from Hurricane Harvey, but it still caused massive property damage. Talk about not seeing the wood for the trees.

bozzza at 13:42 PM on 7 September 2017

30 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years

I don't think I'd heard of Climate Change 20 years ago. I may have heard about the Greenhouse Effect but it was to do with CFCs although that would have been more like 25 years ago...

michael sweet at 12:13 PM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

NorrisM,

If you are ignorant about the extensive contributions Michael Mann has made to various sections of climate science it is better to remain silent than to prove that you are ignorant. As the OP states, Dr. Mann has published on the topic of stationary summer weather patterns and is exactly the type of expert you need for attribution of this event.

Here is Dr. Mann's CV. A glance shows his degrees in Geology, Geophysics and Math, nothing on Palentology. it will take you a long time to read he has so many accomplishments. Dr, Mann is unusual because he contributes to so many different aspects of climate science (and other scientific disciplines).

No climate skeptic has a comparable CV to Dr Mann. You would understand more about AGW if you read more from Dr. Mann (at Realclimate) and wasted less time at denial sites. The science is not that difficult if you read it.

michael sweet at 11:35 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Swayseeker,

Your reference does not mention your geoengineering scheme, it appears that you made it up o your own. In addition to the problems others have pointed out, you would stop the rain over Florida during the rainy season and cause severe drought. That would wipe out Florida agriculture. It would also make the already extremely hot summers in Florida even hotter.

On a scientific blog like SkS you are expected to produce citations that support your claims.

scaddenp at 10:26 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

"Thanks to our technological progress there were mercifully very few even when Mother Nature threw a big punch."

You keep bringing this up. Its relevance is what? That you need FF to have technological progress? That seemed to be Lomberg's false dichotomy.

Why the lack of flood insurance? Well it is only required if you are in “100-year floodplain” apparently. And since GOP doesnt believe in climate change, not seeing a lot of updating of those maps. That would be an example of red-tape hindering progress and driving up costs in the eyes of congress wouldnt it?

ubrew12 at 10:07 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

NorrisM@13 said: "Is this 1% or 20%? If it is only 1% then this just looks like "piggybacking". And if there have been no studies perhaps that should be stated." I'm guessing 10% to 40% of the damage from Harvey can be attributed to climate change, but its too early for attribution studies to have been completed. And can I just point out: once those studies are completed, there is a billion-dollar-a-year industry dedicated to slandering the authors of such studies as 'liberal elitists', so I'm not sure what value in the public realm such studies will carry. The sad fact is that, thanks to that industry, those of us worried about the climate impacts of the future are left "piggybacking" onto overtly natural events. Face it, when its not hot outside, that industry can bring its 'relax-everything-is-fine' message right into the US Congress in the form of a snowball.

NorrisM at 09:31 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Can someone explain to me how Michael Mann, known as a paleontologist measuring tree rings, et al, suddenly becomes an expert in jetstreams so he can opine on how climate change is exacerbating extreme natural events?

On another point, attempting to tie the first major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in 12 years to climate change is a bit of a stretch. So it does not "cause" them (no big ones for 12 years) but "exacerbates" them. Obviously any hurricane will be impacted slightly by small changes in sea level and slight increases in water vapour but are there any studies to say by how much? Is this 1% or 20%? If it is only 1% then this just looks like "piggybacking". And if there have been no studies perhaps that should be stated. This just seems to be another event to point to disaster pending thanks to climate change when we are really just dealing with a common occurrence in this area.

The biggest problem is the lack of preparedness for these kinds of storms (a point made by Lomberg in Cool It). That is what causes a great deal of the damage. But if people choose to live in areas where hurricanes are common, you have to expect to live with the consequences. Why are they allowing people to build in flood zones? If you do not want to build dikes to protect these areas (passing the cost on to those owning the properties protected by the dikes) then leave these areas to the birds. Probably best to leave them to the birds anyways. Good way to deal with encroaching sea levels. Give up the lands to the birds.

What I find astounding is that 85% of homeowners did not have insurance for flood damage. Do these homeowners not have mortgages? I find it incredible that lenders would not require proof of flood damage protection in the insurance policies. I bet they will in the future!

But another point made by Lomborg in his book relates to the number of deaths caused by natural disasters. If this storm had occurred here 100 years ago (even with a much smaller population), how many deaths would it have caused? Thanks to our technological progress there were mercifully very few even when Mother Nature threw a big punch. The loss of life could have been even less had the proper planning taken place.

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nigelj at 07:23 AM on 7 September 2017

The Trump administration wants to bail out failed contrarian climate scientists

SDK @60, yeah good points.

From what I have read we use world views, instincts and politics as a lens to simplify complex issues. This can be very troublesome no matter how tempting it is.

In fact we just have to set politics aside, and not apply it with science. The science is telling us some things, even if some people dont like what it says.

World view has more application to how we fix the problem and what we do with carbon taxes and renewable energy. I would argue we need to be careful we are not unfairly dumping a huge problem on future generations, but I admit this is a value judgement. But it needs a global debate about sustainable management goals. Clearly some people dont buy into the idea of sustainablity and fairness.

Another thing going on. I think a lot of people look at the IPCC reports and the climate sceptics and conclude temperatures and sea level rise will probably be in the middle and no big issue, but they fail to realise the IPCC reports are quite conservative reports, understated especially on potential sea level rise, so peoples whole perception is flawed.

nigelj at 06:53 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

William @10, its also called karma.

nigelj at 06:50 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Swayseeker, I think that could work in theory, but you would require so many solar heaters over millions of kilometres of ocean it would cost trillions and trillions of dollars. Its just not practical and I can see this straight away.

Geoengineering climate can also have unanticipated consequences as well, although I admit none are immediately obvious for your example.

But putting the whole thing in context we have a range of growing environmental impacts, like climate change, over use of nitrate fertilisers, etc and its a question of what we do. Sometimes theres an obvious technical solution right now, but often there isnt a technical solution or the solution has dangerous side effects.

I think the first approach should be prevention, which is obviously going to have the least undesirable consequnces. Only when prevention is difficult should we then look at technological fixes.

We also cant assume future generations will come up with miracle cures to fix the problems we are creating now. We need some realism and management. The approach should be prevention where this makes sense, and sustainable use of the environment.

william5331 at 06:05 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

A bit of rough justice - The oil producing capital of the world being hit by a record breaking huricane and Very possibly a second one coming right after her.

mrkt at 02:36 AM on 7 September 2017

Exit, Pursued by a Crab

Many thanks for your post and for all the work you have done and continue to do. May it give the rest of us (me) inspiration and courage to fight the good fight while we can.

SDK at 02:01 AM on 7 September 2017

The Trump administration wants to bail out failed contrarian climate scientists

I suspect a lot of people are still looking at science using politics as a guideline. Like we need to reach some compromise of sorts. So if we have one side arguing that the earth is flat, and the other shperical... let's all just agree that it's really a cube.

One Planet Only Forever at 00:41 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

Swayseeker@7,

Global geoengineering like you have pointed to, in an attempt to control the damaging impacts of the understood to be negative Global Geoengineering impacts of unsustainable and damaging human developed activity, is a Very Bad Idea (building machines that will remove CO2 from the atmosphere is a possible exception, but planting plants to do that would be better more sustainable than building machines).

Humanity has the potential to thrive on this planet for many millions of years. But to do that humanity has to have 'all of humanity' fitting in and living as a sustainable part of the robust diversity of life using the increased understanding of what is going on, like improved climate science, to develop even better ways to sustainably advance/improve humanity.

There is little chance that the humanity will ever so fully understand the intricacies and inter-relatonships of the global environment to be virtually certain of all of the results of a global geoengineering action. Humanity can however, understand enough to know what activities have to be stopped because they are not sustainably improving things for humanity (what ways of winning have to be blocked or denied the opportunity to be gotten away with).

Any faction of humanity that gets away with enjotying personal benefits in ways that are not sustainable (way that potentially negatively impact others, particularly future generations), is a potential serious threat to the future of humanity and needs to be dealt with that way.

The robust current best understanding of the required direction/correction of development is presented in the Sustainable Development Goals. Those goals have been developed by a massive global collaboration of expertise, like the IPCC, that started before the 1972 Stockholm Conference. The IPCC is actually a sub-set of the Sustainable Development Goals effort. The Paris Agreement is also a sub-set of the actions by real leaders toward achieving the SDGs.

Real Leaders Lead for Good Reason. Poor Excuses for Winning follow (or 'Win' through unjustified) public opinion. Citizen's United has clearly been one of the major steps towards the USA becoming a major Poor Excuse for Winners creators on the planet.

Promoting popular support for the belief that future generations will develop the ability to globally geoengineer controls of the planet's environment is one of the Poorest Excuses for prolonging understood to be unsustainable and damaging pursuits of personal benefit. It is right up there with Denier/Delayer actions trying to keep climate science from being properly understood and 'popular'.

John Hartz at 00:25 AM on 7 September 2017

Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering

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