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NorrisM at 08:27 AM on 29 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
MA Roger
So now I know of Kare Fog! Interesting comments on Bjorn Lomborg's two books.
On Lomborg's website, he shows a very controversial graph where he measures how many units of CO2 would be required to keep temperatures to 2.7C by 2100 versus what the Paris Agreement would achieve if fully implemented by all nations including the US.
The graph shows that 3,066 Gt CO2 would be required whereas the Paris Agreement would only achieve 33 Gt CO2. I believe the website even claims that Christiana Figueres, the UN Climate chief, admits that the Paris Agreement alone would only achieve 33 Gt CO2.
Is this true? Or even remotely true? Surely this is a factual statement that can be confirmed or denied. Even if the Paris figure is ten times this amount, this is a very relevant issue, if only to understand the cost estimates.
My understanding is that even Lord Stern, the author of the UK report on the economic costs of climate change, has joined the Global Apollo Group which seems to be recommending a course similar to what Lomborg has proposed. As well, James Hansen, I believe does not think we can achieve the goals without turning to nuclear power solutions.
If Lomborg's numbers are correct, do we not have to consider alternatives to massive cuts 100 times larger than what the Paris Agreement would achieve?
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NorrisM at 05:50 AM on 29 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Whew! Just checked back since referencing Bjorn Lomberg's book and recent views. Sorry Susanne, just back from holidays and forgot the term. Everyone knew what I meant so I am not sure how you advanced any argument by your comment. Ad hominen's are a very poor way to advance arguments.
Lomborg makes a lot of claims which can be refuted factually if they are incorrect. But his primary point is that there are more efficent ways of battling the effects of AGW than just massively reducing CO2 emissions without a viable alternative for cheap energy having been discovered.
When predicting the future, it is difficult to suggest "technology" will solve it but look back at the past and ask what has more upset predictions than technology? Paul Ehrlich's claims that the world would starve to death did not take into account technological changes in agriculture as an example. We humans are a bit apocalyptic.
I intend to follow some of the above information, especially MA Roger's suggested urls.
But today, when wind and solar represent .4% (not even 4%) of world energy consumption and fossil fuels are somewhere around 85%, is it rational or responsible to simply reduce fossil fuel consumption to 15% as suggested by Bill McKibben? I just shake my head when I hear things like this.
One "cost" that I even saw that Lomborg "dodged" is the cost of land reclamation. His approach is to measure the cost to a nation as a percentage of its GDP. I assume this will be referenced in some of the criticisms above. Looking forward to reading them.
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Barcino2017 at 05:50 AM on 29 August 2017CO2 effect is saturated
I fail to find convincing evidence as to how CO2 can be the cause of global warming with a occurence of only 400 ppm. This would entail that 1 CO2 molecule would need to heat up 2,500 other molecules in the atmosphere to cause any increase in overall temperature. How is this possibly explainable! It is impossible.
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Tom13 at 05:39 AM on 29 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
Moderator - the article makes the statement that the trend are expected to worsen which implies that the current trend is negative, yet as my cites point out, the crop yield trends are positive and have been positive for quite a long period.
Moderator Response:[JH] With respect to crops, the two paragraphs you have quoted are geographic specific. In addition, crops are not the only foodstuff addressed.
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rkrolph at 03:16 AM on 29 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
@27 and 29,
I just assumed MGW meant "Man-made Global Warming". But I've never seen that term used before. It's always been AGW that I have seen.
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RedBaron at 02:35 AM on 29 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
@Tom13,
Yes it is true that the historical trends in agriculture yields are up. This is mostly due to scientific advancement in genetics and breeding and to a lessor extent methodology. At the same time the hisorical trends in agricultural land degradation are up as well. We are increasing yields at the same time we are increasing the destruction to the environment that agriculture causes.
This is where the flaw in yield stats lies. Land that has been degraded so significantly it is no longer arable is not counted in that statistic. Roughly there is about as much land that used to be productive but is now abandoned as is currently in production. Those statistics do not count that land in their yields figures. It makes it seem as if everything is improving, when actually we will quickly run out of new virgin ground to use up. From a global agriculture perspective, those yield numbers need halved to reflect the land now so degraded it can no longer be used for farming.
Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues
You asked if the authors believed innovation would halt. Well I am not an author of that article, so I can't speak for them. But I do know that innovation will continue, and the innovation is part of an AGW mitigation strategy. Just one example can be found for rice:
The System of Rice Intensification (SRI)…
… is climate-smart rice productionIt's not a doomsday prediction. It's a projection based on the world continuing "as is" instead of progressing with innovation like the above SRI and of course solar, wind, hydro etc.... as a AGW mitigation strategy.
The difference between a prediction and a projection is that projection have contingencies. We get to chose the outcome of the future by our actions now.
More information on how innovation in agriculture can be part of an AGW mitigation strategy can be found here:
Can we reverse global warming?
Executive summary:
Yes we can reverse Global Warming.
It does not require huge tax increases or expensive untested risky technologies.
It will require a three pronged approach worldwide.
- Reduce fossil fuel use by replacing energy needs with as many feasible renewables as current technology allows.
- Change Agricultural methods to high yielding regenerative models of production made possible by recent biological & agricultural science advancements.
- Large scale ecosystem recovery projects similar to the Loess Plateau project, National Parks like Yellowstone etc. where appropriate and applicable.
If we fail to take these steps, then exactly what the authors suggest will happen, surely will indeed happen just as they claim.
The choice is ours though. We get to chose our future.
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Tom13 at 01:34 AM on 29 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
ourworldindata.org/yields-and-land-use-in-agriculture/
ourworldindata.org/yields-and-land-use-in-agriculture/
Moderator - The historical trend for most all crops has been positive -
Moderator Response:[JH] The first sentence of the the two paragraphs that you quote is (my bolds):
Geographically, the negative impact of climate change on agricultural output could result in lower yields of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans in countries with tropical climates, compared with the impacts experienced by those in higher latitudes.
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Tom13 at 23:17 PM on 28 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
From the article above:
Geographically, the negative impact of climate change on agricultural output could result in lower yields of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans in countries with tropical climates, compared with the impacts experienced by those in higher latitudes. Fisheries could also be affected by changes to water temperature, warned the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) today.
Based on the findings of the global research community, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) anticipates that these trends are expected to worsen in the future with the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change.
Yet the actual trend over the centuries have been increases in crop yields with an acelleration since the 1970's. Better farming techniches, improved grain varieties, etc all contributing to better & higher yields, all contrary to the typical doomsday predictions of the Paul Ehrlich types.
Do the authors of this report realy believe the technological progress, innovation will come to a halt because of global warming.
Moderator Response:[JH] Sloganeering snipped. Please carefully reread the paragraphs that you have quoted.
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Tom13 at 23:02 PM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
#17 -Bozza -"'First tanker crosses northern sea route without ice breaker'"
The tanker is an ice breaker with the Russian certification level of ARC7
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/08/25/first-tanker-crosses-northern-sea-route-without-ice-breaker-because-it-is-one-anyway/
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Eclectic at 15:17 PM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Good point, Susanne @27.
"MGW" is a mysterious neologism, which I too had never encountered prior to reading post #4.
Perhaps he means "Minimal Global Warming" — although that would seem to be begging the question about an issue which would count as too trivial to deserve any attention at all. So it can't be that [in view of the severity of the AGW problem, and, indeed, of NorrisM's many lengthy posts on this website].
Perhaps he means MajorGW [though that also would be incompatible with NorrisM's inclination toward denial of the scientific evidence].
Perhaps "Mysterious Global Warming"? . . . but that doesn't fit with the fact that our modern-day rapid Global Warming has a cause which is well-understood and well-proven. Nothing mysterious at all, there.
Susanne, please let me know if you discover the solution to the mysterious case of M . ( --Almost sounding like the title of a Conan Doyle short story about Sherlock Holmes ) .
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bozzza at 13:46 PM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Tony Abbott lost the Prime-Ministership of Australia by trying to make us accept B. Lomborg should be allowed to espouse his views from the pulpit of one of our most famous Universities.
He lost all credibility and his job because Lomborg was globally known as being a flim-flam artist... it was the funniest thing: you had to be there I suppose.
Climate Change alarmism is perpetrated by the climate change denialists to make everything look uncredible... It's all about credibility and the vested interests don't attack in straight lines: there is always the direct and the indirect attack! Newspapers are propaganda machines and the subtlety of the game is how it's won.
In the end the people lead and governments follow so if you want change then the consuming voter will get change only by demanding it be so. Hence suppliers are changing their ways to meet such perceived increases in demand as they know there are too many jokes out there like Lomborg that fool nobody anymore!!
It's almost like people are starting to actually care about the children they decided to bring into this world.
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scaddenp at 12:10 PM on 28 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
GB: while I largely agree, you can reduce the cost and size of that build if you can also reduce the amount of energy used. Per capita energy use by US in raw terms is twice that of much of Europe for reasons I have not understood. Maybe there is energy export hidden on those figures somewhere, but it surely suggests there is room for some considerable energy savings without sacrificing first world living standards.
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Susanne at 11:14 AM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
NorrisM @4
Please, what's MGW? The most (but doubtfully) relevant expansion that I can find is Minors Gone Wild, in the Urban Dictionary.
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Gingerbaker at 10:53 AM on 28 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, [CO2] keeps rising. And here is a thought:
Reductions in electricity and fuel use, mainly from efficiency gains, resulted in how much additional pressure to build new renewable energy infratsructure? Answer: zero. Actually, less than zero.
I am not saying efficiency is not a good thing. But the only thing that truly matters is how quickly we can build and deploy all the RE we need to stop burning carbon.
It seems a prosaic point, but, you can't hit the switch to turn off a coal or natural gas power plant until you can hit a switch to turn on the RE plant to replace it. And funding that RE plant is a function of government, not the individual. Replacing incandescent light bulbs with LED's is not the answer, it is rearranging the deck chairs.
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ubrew12 at 03:13 AM on 28 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
Reading the Aug 18th 'Moyers and Company' interview with Katherine Hayhoe about the National Climate Assessment report, she's talking about the dangers to parts of America posed by climate change and made this remark: "In Texas, we’re at risk of hurricanes, which are getting stronger as we’ve got the warmer ocean water". She can say that last week, but such is the politics of the situation that if she said it this week she'd be accused of grandstanding.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:09 AM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
A minor improved understanding of my comment @24,
"... requiring the wealthy of the nations who got richest from the previous decades of massive damaging burning of fossil fuels ... to 'transfer wealth and provide support' to genuinely sustainably improve the lives of those who undeservingly lose in (experience a net-negative result) due to the fatally flawed games of popularity and profitability."
Many of the people 'Losing' are not 'in the games' and would perfer to enjoy life 'outside of, and not negatively affected by, the fatally flawed competitions for temporarily developed perceptions of Winning more than Others any way that can be gotten away with'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:57 AM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
A follow-up to my comment@24,
Misdirection/misleading messages regarding many aspects of the increased awareness and better understanding get popular support by creating 'unjustified perceptions of anxiety leading to misdirected fear and resulting in misdirected anger' related to the requirement for human activity to be corrected to undo damaging development along the fossil fuels burning path.
Undoing decades of prolonging and expanding economic development based on fossil fuel burning is a major correction of perceptions of prosperity. In Alberta it can be seen that the push to expand extraction facilities for the Oil Sands was done to increase the number of people incorrectly perceiving their opportunity for prosperity to be related to excusing the global burning of fossil fuels and disliking and attacking anyone who says otherwise.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:43 AM on 28 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
ubrew12@23,
A misdirection to create 'unjustified perceptions of anxiety leading to misdirected fear and resulting in misdirected anger' that is pertinent to the corrective actions that climate science has exposed as being required for the advancement of humanity to a truly lasting growth of economic activity making things better for everyone is: Claims that the inequity of distribution of the truly massive wealth within the USA is to be blamed on things like NAFTA.
The people easily tempted to be angry about 'Others' benefiting from agreements like NAFTA are also easily tempted to be angry about the Paris Agreement requirement for the inequity of global wealth and harm due to climate change impacts to be corrected by requiring the wealthy of the nations who got richest from the previous decades of massive damaging burning of fossil fuels (decades that saw the damaging activity be prolonged and even increased in spite of it being well understood that development in that direction was damaging and unsustainable though undeniably cheaper for those benefiting for as long as the understandably damaging ultimately unsustainable activity can be gotten away with - any growth in perceived prosperity/wealth could not be expected to be maintained), to 'transfer wealth and provide support' to genuinely sustainably improve the lives of those who undeservingly lose in the fatally flawed games of popularity and profitability.
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ubrew12 at 11:15 AM on 27 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
"- climate change costs will hit Trump Country hardest." It doesn't matter. The 1%-funded alt-media (Breitbart, Faux News) peddles the alternative fact that whatever happens to 'Trump Country', its someone else's fault. This is its sole purpose. So the more 'Trump Country' is squeezed, by anything including climate change, the more imperative it will be for them to vote for people like Trump. What happened to the Germans in the 1920s was the fault of the Jews (not their centuries-old rivalry with the Franks which ended badly in WWI). This is a time-honored tradition for the kind of people for whom certainty 'trumps' accuracy. Whatever happens to 'Trump Country', their media will simply wheel out the 'usual suspects' to direct their anger. Which tiresomely was revealed the other day in Charlottesville VA with the chanted slogan 'Jews will not replace us'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:01 AM on 27 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
nigelj,
Regarding what humanity needs to focus on ... The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals are probably the most robustly developed (having the most extensive and rigorous effort put into its development) set of actions that humanity must "cocurrently pursue".
Those goals were developed through massive international cooperation in increasing awareness and understanding through the years since the 1972 Stockholm Conference.
For the likes of Lomborg to claim that "They know Better" without actually providing 'substantive Good Reasons based on new information' as the basis for changing the SDGs is the epitome of damaging dangerous hubris. It is simiar to the ridiculous 'US Supposed-Winners-of-Leadership-in-the-Moment' claim that their Red Team-Blue Team climate change assessment would be more relevant than the IPCC reports and recommendations.
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nigelj at 06:49 AM on 27 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
This is perceptive about Lomberg and his "copenhagen consensus"
We need to stop our obsession with global warming, and start dealing with the many more pressing issues in the world, where we can do most good first and quickest," Lomborg concluded.
While Lomborg's views are dismissed by the overwhelming majority of those researching climate change, his attendance in Buenos Aires ensured that his views where not only projected into the 'echo chamber' by conservative news sites such as CNSNews.com, but picked up by the BBC as well.[15]
Others don't think the outcome of the Copenhagen Consensus should be taken all that seriously. Not only were the invited presenters all economists, critics of the process point to the constrained choices they were presented with in ranking priorities that the global community should address.
"Climate strategies are compared with measures to address problems that everyone agrees are crucial. But climate strategies should also be compared with other goals that society spends (or wastes) money on. One relevant example is to ask what can be delayed with the least harm: climate measures or exploration of Saturn’s rings? Or what about ranking climate measures in relation to spending tens of millions of dollars a year developing new kinds of nuclear weapons, as the Bush administration seems prepared to do?," wrote Pål Prestrud and Hans Seip from the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO).[16]
Moderator Response:[RH] Shortened link.
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nigelj at 06:22 AM on 27 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
OPOF @19
You could be right. Some people are indeed scientifically literate enough to know whats really going on, but deliberatly misrepresent things for ulterior motives. But I have known very bright well educated people who are just weak in science.
Either way the result is the same, and Lombergs mistakes are as you say too numerous to excuse. The Danish Ministry of Science also found his book scientifically dishonest, in a formal hearing, although he was cleared of personal dishonesty. But if thats not still a red flag what is?
Lomberg has demonstrated over and over that he cannot be relied upon to be accurate and objective on matters of climate change, and he also has a strong sceptical position, therefore there will always be a suspicion this colours his economic analysis of the Paris issue.
Moderator Response:[RH] Shortened link.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:24 AM on 27 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
nigelj@16,
In order for Bjorn Lomborg to have made his 2008 claim about sea levels he was almost certain to have been aware of the data history, including data prior to 2006. He would have been looking for the longest duration he could claim for the 'no sea level rise for the past ??? years'.
Therefore, he most likely was well aware that the history includes other periods that would appear to have been the 'end of sea level rise'.
Therefore, he most likely deliberately made-up his misleading claim to achieve an understandably unhelpful/unacceptable objective.
Therefore, he has little reliability/credibility as a source of valid information or Good Reasoning. He has very little reliability as an information source.
All sources can be shown to have 'made some mistakes in the rush to be the first to present new information'. The more reliable sources make fewer and less significant 'mistakes'. But the 2008 claim made up by Bjorn was not a researcher's 'mistake' due to a rush to claim something first. It was wrong in a way that Bjorn Lomborg would have easily been aware of (and part of the blame has to go to all the media that published his claim 'uncorrected for the easy to establish fallacy that it was').
People wanting to believe the claims made by the likes of Lomborg have to be unaware of the lack of reliability of such sources. Their continued 'faith' and 'belief' in things that are contrary to available evidence and the best explanations of what can be observed/discovered is due to a motivation to 'want to continue to believe the unbelievable'.
History is filled with cases of people preferring to believe something contrary to the actual developed better awareness and understanding. And they have often argued for 'what they believe' (maintained understandably incorrect beliefs) for hundreds of years after the virtually conclusive unacceptability of what they prefer to believe has been established.
There truly are some things outside of increased awareness and better understanding, such as spiritual beliefs. But a spiritual believer is also capable of changing their mind based on increased awareness and better understanding. It is interesting to note that many people claiming a spiritual belief as the reason they do not accept an understanding of science also claim that all beliefs should be considered to be valid (an implied equivalence of validity for any belief). But they also insist that their preferred belief is the 'correct one' which is a clear contradiction of their claim that all beliefs are equally valid (and all spritual beliefs/atheism are all to be considered to be equally valid until actual independently verifiable substantial proof shows otherwise). The 'Believers' appear to detest Good Reason and True Expertise because it contradicts their preferred way of thinking - believing rather than understanding - in a way they cannot legitimately rationally argue against).
The best understanding of what is going on eventually wins, but often not before massive damage is done by Undeserving Winners of competitions for popularity and profitability getting away with the support of 'Beliefs that are Ridiculous' as Excuses for actions that are understandably unacceptable.
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Eclectic at 01:47 AM on 27 August 2017Most of the last 10,000 years were warmer
Redrum @97 ,
best if you define the meaning of "such climate optimum".
"Optimum" is a term which is in much danger of being very subjective and bordering on useless for discussion. To look at it more closely would require a careful examination of plant/animal evolution, and of course the present rapid rate of global warming (in relation to biological adaptation of species).
If I were pressed to give a facile comment, I would say that global climate conditions at year 1950 AD might represent somewhere close to (biological) optimum. You will have noted from the OP's article and various commentaries on it (including graphs), that 1950 climate is rather similar to the broad span of the mid-Holocene.
And that the large and continuing rise in temperature since 1950 does push the global climate well above the earlier Holocene warm plateau — and much more of that hotting-up is yet to come [to our detriment]. So unfortunately, the "Optimum" is receding well into the past, and with little likelihood of being regained in the next few thousand years.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:46 AM on 27 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Correction in my post @14
"They base their claims on showing that, from their perspective, the opportunity that has to be given up by current day people is more than the harm, costs and challenges that are being created for Others."
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Redrum at 00:02 AM on 27 August 2017Most of the last 10,000 years were warmer
Hello,
Does anyone have any idea whether such climate optimum is predicted in future, is it even possible to predict such occurence?
Cheers. -
Kevin C at 18:42 PM on 26 August 2017Harvard scientists took Exxon’s challenge; found it using the tobacco playbook
Tom: In case you haven't found it yet, the supporting data (121 pages) are here:
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/12/8/084019/media/ERL_12_8_084019_suppdata.pdf
This also provides links for source documents, which I quote:
All analyzed advertorials can be downloaded at:
https://perma.cc/8XHW-5GZE
All analyzed internal documents can be downloaded at one (or more) of: (ExxonMobil) https://perma.cc/D862-KB2N (InsideClimate News) https://perma.cc/26Q3-FL6F (Other) https://perma.cc/YWD4-UFVNMost analyzed peer-reviewed documents are cited in full by ExxonMobil
https://perma.cc/3QEV-KLFP (3 exceptions)Most analyzed non-peer reviewed documents are cited in full by ExxonMobil https://perma.cc/3QEV-KLFP (15 exceptions)
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bozzza at 15:38 PM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41037071
'First tanker crosses northern sea route without ice breaker'
The specially-built ship completed the crossing in just six-and-a-half days setting a new record, according to the tanker's Russian owners.
"The 300-metre-long Sovcomflot ship, the Christophe de Margerie, was carrying gas from Norway to South Korea.
Rising Arctic temperatures are boosting commercial shipping across this route."
Posted by: Hans Gunnstaddar | August 26, 2017 at 06:21 -
nigelj at 13:45 PM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
What just amazes me and leaves me bewildered is this. Bjorn Lomberg has a degree in political science, with some sort of specialty in statistics. Now I respect his qualifications, but how can someone with a degree in statistics of all things point to a cherry picked period of a couple of years of decline in sea level? He of all people as a statistician should know such short periods mean nothing, are not represenatative, and this is doubly true because the graph posted above on sea level clearly shows similar "blips" all through the 20th century of decline, but within an overall century long increasing trend.
So it proves the old saying you can have a PHd degree in whatever subject, and still be incredibly stupid at times. Perhaps I'm being rather rude and blunt. So terribly sorry about that.
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Ger at 12:40 PM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Swayseeker @2; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5067572/ about passive cooling. All electromagnetic radiation,light included, gets converted to lower wave-length radiation and re-emited (as heat-radiation). Atmosphere is buffering a lot of that heat in the form of latent heat in water vapor, chemical (potential) energy (Ozon, in the upper layers) and in the surface of the Earth. At night a lot of the captured heat goes out again into (cold) space as infra-red, partly reflected back by clouds. { so far, where does that energy go eventually }
Just a bit of the incoming radiation (7 out of the 174 units of energy) is reflected directly back into space during the day. One does increase direct reflection amount, especially in heat islands as city by painting with heat reflecting paint, which tend to be white in (visible) range. Painting asphalt roads grey would keep the temperature of the surface low, reduces the costs of maintenance, wear on car tyres in the long run. If that is worrth a $40,000 a mile, I don't know.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:39 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
NorrisM,
To clarify my points regarding the unhelpfulness of the likes of Bjorn Lomborg and Lord Monckton regarding the appropriate awareness and understanding of the changes of human activity that climate science has identified as being required to improve the future for all of humanity, it is important to understand that 'anything that does not improve the future for all of humanity is unhelpful'.
Another way of saying that is 'only activities that have a net-zero or net-positive impact on Others are acceptable'. That is the fundamantal ethic behind sustainable rule of law. Any law and application of law that does not meet that measure ultimately deserves to be rewritten or revoked (like revised definitions of what Environmental Protection must include). And it is a rational consideration from the perspective the person affected, not the person making the impact, that determines if there is a net-negative impact.
The burning of fossil fuels, therefore, only becomes acceptable if there is no net-negative impact on any Others, with future generations being considered to be Others.
The likes of Lomborg and Monckton (and Trump) appeal to the selfish interests among the current generation. They try to claim that it is OK for some among the current generation to benefit from an activity that is understandably creating net-negative impacts for Others. They base their claims on showing that, from their perspective, the opportunity that has to be given up by current day people is less than the harm, costs and challenges that are being created for Others. And they attempt to justify more future harm by applying what is called a net-present-value assessment (or discounting of future costs) that reduces the value of future costs the further into the future they are. And they do not acknoweldge the 'Others' aspect. They instead claim that the harm done is acceptable as long as it is less than the opportunity to benefit that they evaluate would have to be given up by current day people since the result is a net-neutral or net-positive from their perspoective. That type of evaluation can easily be seen to be ridiculous, yet it continues to be used and be popular.
It is undeniable that much of the developed economic activity of the supposedly (perceived and claimed to be) most advanced nations and corporations was developed in the wrong direction (unsustainable activity). Those who continued with that incorrect direction of development since 1990 (and even earlier, potentially as early as 1972 when the Stockholm Conference identified the required changes of direction), have only themselves to blame for the current developed fact that making the required changes as rapidly as they need to be made is 'to their significant disadvantage'.
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Ken in Oz at 10:19 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
"- climate change costs will hit Trump Country hardest." - all the more reason for the people there to really, really want it not to be true. Electing people who will tell them it isn't true must provide a lot of reassurance.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:45 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
NorrisM,
I would suggest that SkS is about increased awareness and better understanding of all matters related to climate science, which would include understanding the basis of claims made regarding actions required because of the constant improvement of understanding of climate science.
From my perspective climate science has raised awareness and better understanding of the fatally flawed belief that 'everyone freer to believe what they want and do as they please will develop Good results'. The evidence is overwhelming that misleading marketing and the flawed perceptions of prosperity, popularity and profitability it an create and prop-up are a major hurdle to be overcome by climate scientists as they try to ensure the success of their efforts to improve awareness and understanding.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:32 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
I have read Lomborg's "Cool It".
Basically the assessment is seriously flawed for many reaosns, not least of which is the fatally flawed belief that it is OK for a group of people to pursue personal benefit in ways that are understood to create harm, costs, and challenges for Other People.
The arguments against acting to reduce climate change impacts are basically comparisons of:
- the current day lost opportunities to benefit from the understood to be damaging activities athta are also understood to not be able to be continued to be a benefit in the future (because burning up non-renewable buried ancient hydrocarbon is a dead-end activity with escallating costs to continue).
- with the perceived costs imposed on Other People in the future.
The bigest falacy is the belief that perceptions of wealth and value today will magically continue and increase in value in the future. That belief only works if the created value is sustainable activity with increased value being improved sustainable activity.
The like sof Lonborg can only argue that their last opportunity costs are greater than the costs they create for others. The simple rebuttal is that costs to others must be minimized to the point of being eliminated if humanity is to have a chance of advancing to a better future.
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michael sweet at 09:29 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Norris M
This cartoon ilustrates the quality of Lomborg's arguments:
Lomborg's job is to write juk about environmental issues. He publishes books because then he does not have to pass peer review.
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nigelj at 09:14 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Norris M
"His (Blombergs)2008 book only focuses on Kyoto but his website suggests that the Paris Agreement would achieve very little in the way of temperature reductions but at great cost to society."
Is that right? Do you always take someones book at face value? Have you even bothered to read the rather compelling criticisms of all Blombergs many books and ideas including the above, merely a google click away? We are talking a whole stream of basic errors in his work, missquting other scientists etc, etc. The guy is not a scientist or environmetal expert he is a statistician.
Blombergs study on the Paris agreement takes the most pessimistic possible evaluation of impacts and doesn't consider the costs of doing nothing. Its a worthless piece of paper.
You obviously dont trust the IPCC, a huge organisation, yet want to place your faith in a jacked up debate between a small handul of cherry picked experts battling things out according to the agenda of the climate denialist organisers. I mean I'm just laughing and laughing. I suggest you google the term Kangaroo court. I place precisely zero value in such a mechanism regardless of what they come up with.
How can a smaller scale, weaker, distorted version of the IPCC Possibly be better? Its crazy stuff, the worlds gone crazy.
Delay, deny, dither. Thats all I hear from some of you people
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MA Rodger at 08:58 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
NorrisM @4,
While many here will be generally familiar with the arguments set out by Bjørn Lomborg on AGW, I think most folk would need to know a lot more about the specifics set out in Lomborg's wonderous "Cool It!!!" book to be able to address your question seriously. Of course, the book is a decade old now and has not exactly set the world alight. That suggests more reason to understand the detail of what it is saying. Does this five-page resume reflect your understanding of its content? Or how about this coverage?
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nigelj at 08:58 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
OPOF @3
"New study finds that climate change costs will hit future generations and the less fortunate in Trump country hardest"
Yes true, but half the people in Trump country dont have the brains to work this out, and the other half have the brains but think their children will be wealthy enough to buy their way out of the problem. They are all missguided.
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nigelj at 08:52 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Swayseeker @2
"In Los Angeles they are using cool grey paint for pavements and it will cost $ 40 000 per mile. But will it help? Will reflection cause radiation to go through windows.'
Well obviously some will go through windows, but you need to have some faith in experts, and they clearly believe more is reflected to space than goes through windows, so theres a net benefit to lighter coloured pavements. You have really just asked a rhetorical question, and not provided any data that theres a problem. However I would sure like to see an evaluation if anyone has one.
"One of the big problems can be windows with sunlight entering... so virtually all enters via a window."
Office towers use low emissivity glasses and mirror glass etc to keep solar radiation out as much as possible. So the pavement issue is perhaps not a problem in that context.
Houses use ordinary glass that lets most solar energy enter. Lighter coloured streets would reflect some sunlight into houses, but given street width, it just seems to me most would get relected away from buildings.
In your typical more northerly temperate America city you actually want heat gain through windows in winter normally, and shading in summer. It's more of an issue of how you achieve this, and one of the best ways is to use ordinary glass which lets in plenty of sunlight, but have an extrnal adjustable awning, eaves or louvred shutter so you can keep heat away from the windows in summer
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JohnSeers at 08:36 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
@4 NorrisM
For a start Bjorn Lomborg's arguments (as described by you) are not "more focussed". In fact they are decidedly lacking focus. What is the point of researching non-carbon energy technologies if you do not implement them? By pushing the implementation of non-carbon energy we can help push that research and give it focus and urgency.
It seems rather laissez-faire to just rely on the hope the research is successful without following up on it to make sure it happens.
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NorrisM at 03:52 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
My understanding was that this website was limited to the causes of climate change and not to the costs and ways of dealing with those costs. Largely owing to what I believe will be a "Red Team Blue Team" analysis organized by the EPA (I assume this has not changed while I was on vacation), I have decided that I will not expend any further time on issues of how much temperature change we are headed for thanks to MGW until I have heard the results of this analysis. As argued by Scott Adams (on a Sam Harris podcast) this publicized Red Team Blue Team approach is the chance for the proponents of MGW to get the US public onside. I have to admit this could be somewhat of a "gong show" but if it is organized by someone like Steve Koonin, it does not have to be.
During my summer vacation, largely owing to the recommendation of Freeman Dyson (not personally, from a You Tube interview), I have now read Bjorn Lomborg's book "Cool It". Lomborg completely accepts that the present climate change is man-made but argues that massive reductions in the use of fossil fuels at this time does not make sense compared to having the nations of the world each dedicate, per year, .05% of their annual GDP to R&D focussed on non-carbon energy technologies. His 2008 book only focuses on Kyoto but his website suggests that the Paris Agreement would achieve very little in the way of temperature reductions but at great cost to society.
Can anyone explain why Bjorn Lomborg's arguments as to a more "focussed" approach to adaptation does not make sense?
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:24 AM on 26 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Every article about the cost impacts of climate change should include the italics added below.
"New study finds that climate change costs will hit future generations and the less fortunate in Trump country hardest"
There needs to be a constant reminder that a significant part of the resistance to accepting the required changes of human activity that have been exposed by climate science comes from people who do not care that their actions negatively impact others, especially not being concerned when those others have little or no chance of "Meaningfully, quickly getting back at them for what they did". The people benefiting are not the ones suffering the consequences. Regions are not people. And future generations are not just an extension of the current generation in the business sense of evaluating near term vs. distant benefits.
The popularity of the unethical assessment that 'the opportunity for benefit that has to be given up by a portion of current day humans to stop creating harm, challenges and costs for others, particularly future generations, is too high' needs to be ended. Claiming it 'costs too much to behave in a way that does not cause harm to others, is a very Poor but Popular Excuse. And it has to be repeatedly exposed that Poor Excuses can and do win popularity and profitability contests to the detriment of the future of humanity.
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Swayseeker at 23:26 PM on 25 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
One cost that is already emerging is the cost of cooling cities. In Los Angeles they are using cool grey paint for pavements and it will cost $ 40 000 per mile. But will it help? Will reflection cause radiation to go through windows. They are planting trees, but trees reflect radiation - see below:
My understanding of this paint is that it reflects infrared. With an urban heat island effect, the sunlight (includes infrared and ultraviolet) enters the city and gets reflected around onto walls and so on. They absorb the sunlight to some extent and heat up. The sunlight coming in has mainly short wavelength. After buildings heat up they emit radiation of a longer wavelength. Some of this longer wavelength radiation will probably be reflected by the paint and some will go out to space. The infrared of sunlight is high frequency (short wavelenth ) infrared. The heated buildings emit longer wavelength infrared radiation, mainly. With white cool roofs some sunlight is reflected onto other buildings causing heat problems. One of the big problems can be windows with sunlight entering. Window glass transmits radiation up to about 2.5 microns (the energy goes through the glass if its wavelength is less than about 2.5 microns) and about 97% of solar energy has wavelength less than 2.5 microns, so virtually all enters via a window.
Now how much of this energy escapes? Well if the walls heats up to 50 deg C, then radiation from them that is above 2.5 microns will not escape. The answer is that far less than 1% of this radiation can escape through the glass because more than 99% of the energy radiated by the 50 deg C walls is of wavelength greater than 2.5 microns (using a blackbody approximation). If a particular cool paint does reflect infrared, where is the infrared radiation going to go? Remember angle of incidence= angle of reflection. One may note that green vegetation reflects solar energy of wavelength between 0.75 to 2.4 microns significantly. Most of this could be reflected through your window into your house (glass lets in radiation of wavelength less than about 2.5 microns). This radiation would heat up objects and the radiation from the hot objects would not be able to get out through the window again (wavelength too long). About 42% of solar energy is energy of wavelength 0.75 to 2.4 microns. -
CBDunkerson at 21:05 PM on 25 August 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
Karma is a bitch.
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bozzza at 19:18 PM on 25 August 2017Harvard scientists took Exxon’s challenge; found it using the tobacco playbook
The old-industry-investors are just waiting for certainty before reinvesting en-masse I perhaps should have said!
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bozzza at 19:16 PM on 25 August 2017Harvard scientists took Exxon’s challenge; found it using the tobacco playbook
There are no denialists! The markets know this and that is why supply is gearing up to match foreseen demand!
It's just normal pause button politics to slow the world down to the pace it can handle turning at!
The people lead: governments follow! So, who wants to invest in the future? We all have the power to demand change! The old industries are just waiting for certainty.... the economy is just another large momentum system!!!
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Wol at 13:59 PM on 25 August 2017Harvard scientists took Exxon’s challenge; found it using the tobacco playbook
I hve a copy of the summarised report by the Director of a branch of Exxon's Research and Engineering science lab, in response to Exxon's request for research into the effect of increasing CO2.
It's dated Sept 2nd, 1982
In part:
"... The consensu is that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial revolution value would result inan average global temerature rise of 3.0° - +/- 1.5° C"
and:
"In summary, the results of tour research are in accord with the scientific consensus on the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on climate......"
There can be no question that the top management of Exxon were unaware of the effect of CO2 back in at least the early eighties.
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RedBaron at 12:49 PM on 25 August 2017New textbook on climate science and climate denial
RIP rockytom
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nigelj at 06:32 AM on 25 August 2017Harvard scientists took Exxon’s challenge; found it using the tobacco playbook
Michael Sweet @2, yes I agree absolutely, its fraud to hide problems like this from the public. But the point I was making is some people I know don't even believe in those types of laws.
The climate issue is intensely political. The hardened denialists look to me to be driven mostly by political motives about corporate freedom and small government etc, and these positions are rigid positions they are reluctant to change. They resent any laws that define how companies process information. I see all this sort of thing in numerous comments on other websites.
I havent seen a proper study on it, but I'm willing to bet serious money I'm right. This has to be faced for what it is. This website acknowledges the problem but may be clouding it with too many other lesser things at times.
I'm not sure how you convince such rigid people, however I do believe they tend to be in a minority, and just make a lot of noise.
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nigelj at 06:16 AM on 25 August 2017Harvard scientists took Exxon’s challenge; found it using the tobacco playbook
Tom @13
"The links to the XOM articles, studies, etc are not easily accessible"
What exactly does this mean? Be precise. Nobody else has complained of difficulties. Not even Exxon is actually denying that they produced a large volume of research confirming that we are warming the climate, so your exercise is somewhat pedantic.
"A total of 187 papers, articles, studies, etc seems to be an extremely small sample of the total volume of work and internal documents generated by ExxonMobil, Given the size of Exxon Mobil, most would have expected a much larger sample"
I disagree. You are making a false comparison. The correct comparison would be whether 187 climate studies is a represenative sample of total climate studies, not all internal documents. 187 climate studies would seem a lot of climate studies by any standard.
Also, the Oreskes study doesn't appear to mention anything about using a random sample as such. They simply stated that they used all the publicly available information they could find. I think its safe to assume anything that Exxon tried to hide would not be flattering to them and I doubt Orekses would have been selective, because Exxon would certainly be in a position to easily embarrass them and would quickly do so.
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