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nigelj at 06:36 AM on 19 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
OPOF @6
It may be appropriate to say helpful is more of an ethical concept, and too general and hard to define (sometimes) to form a sound basis for formation of specific laws and day to day regulations. The term harmful is intuitively more appropriate as a concept to develop laws and regulations, and sustainable development goals are based on the idea of not harming future generations, primarily.
I find it interesting you are a structural engineer. I don't want to be specific about my current career, (I'm semi retired anyway) as I have found some people use that to judge the validity of what you write and whether your qualifications are relevent, when to my mind it should be about the depth of your comments, but I will say I at one stage I used to be professionally involved with architectural building design consultancy work, and get what you are saying about practices and guidelines. It might be we both have a desire for a sense of order or something.
Team Trump seems to hate order, and be more about deliberate chaos, and very short term goals. There's no genuine long term plan, let alone sustainable development goals. This possibly originates with Trump's background as a profit seeking property developer, and in my experience these people hate rules or wider goals. It's the nature of the beast, and I'm not saying I would be any different in that role, but good government requires laws and rules, and I would suggest society needs some wider goals in a more general sense.
Harmful marketing is indeed a problem, and innoculation is part of the solution. While I'm not a regular complainer, I did once lodge a complaint about a certain product, and it was taken off the market as a result. However I know you are mainly talking about marketing of certain ideas.
Putting the marketing issue in in context helps understanding.The basis of capitalism has been an element of healthy personal freedom to innovate, and market ones products in innovative ways. This is ok, as we should not require the time consuming approval of governments, or some dictator, but there is nothing damaging to capitalism in having rules about false advertising, or limits on how far you can target young people. Inncoculation does indeed help people identify marketing that is really just promoting and disgusing destructive behaviour.
Ironically America has voted for Trump, presumably because they perceive he promotes capitalism, but in many ways he is anti-capitalist, and more of a dictator who wants to personally approve everything before it is allowed, said or done. Just think of his restrictions on the EPA website, but there are many more examples. He believes he is above the law, or any cultural view on sustainable development.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:23 AM on 19 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
nigelj,
One minor clarification regarding the thoughts in "On Liberty". People do not have to "Help Others", they simply need to ensure that their actions do no Harm to Others, including doing no harm to the ability of Others to pursue a decent life. At the time Mill was writing, happiness was understood to be a decent life, not personal pleasure or extravagance.
Current day perceptions of what Happiness means have changed unacceptably. Susan Cain's book “Quiet - The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking” includes information about the change in America in the 1800s from a Culture of Character to a Culture of Personality - terms presented by historian Warren Sussman - with the primary perceptions of a successful person, described in books recommending how a person can improve themselves, shifting from “Citizenship, Duty, Work, Golden deeds, Honour, Reputation, Morals, Manners, Integrity” to “Magnetic, Fascinating, Stunning, Attractive, Glowing, Dominant, Forceful, Energetic”. Of course, the relative measure of worth of an individual's actions would be how much they help Others, but Mill's presentation “On Liberty” does not require people to help others, and the shifted perceptions of what deserves to Win in America isn't Helpful. The future of humanity needs People of Good Substance/Character, not Appealing Characters/Personalities, to Win.
I consider the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be the best developed presentation of Moral/Ethical/Helpful thoughts and actions, and conversely they should be the basis for determining the unacceptability of any actions, actions that are contrary to advancing humanity towards those goals (the basis for laws and regulations, but also the basis for penalizing a person even if a law has yet to be written with the required monitoring and enforcement that would effectively limit what they tried to get away with - note that the USA may have very good laws but does not properly enforce them so even having a good law is not proof that good is being done).
The SDGs can, and undoubtedly will, be improved. But they are already a very good basis for determining the acceptability/helpfulness of thoughts and actions. Raising awareness of the SDGs is valuable.
As with all developed things, it is important to continue pursuing expanded awareness and understanding. Changing the presentation of the Sustainable Development Goals to make future versions even More Helpful will occur. The current wording is weakened by the temporary success of powerful interests that want to delay the changes of understood acceptability that ultimately need to be established (much like the way the need for all nations to agree to the wording of each statement in the IPCC reports has resulted in damaging understatement of the actual understanding that is already developed - the wording is the weakest wording consistent with the actual facts). In particular, the current version of the SDGs only says that the discount rate for evaluating the merit of current day activity needs to be reduced, hopefully to zero. A better understanding would be that doing any harm to Future Generations is unacceptable. That understanding would make a discount rate irrelevant because even a discount rate of zero means it is OK for a portion of a current generation to benefit at the expense of future generations (or others) as long as the amount of future damage perceived to be caused is less than the amount of present day benefit believed to have to be foregone to avoid creating the future harm to the ability to achieve 'happiness'.
My career has helped develop my understanding of how easy it can be for "Change" and "Freedom of people to do as they please" (the things Libertarians, not necessarily Liberals push for) to produce damaging unhelpful results. In my work as a Structural Engineer we always established Practices and Guidelines. I, along with others, pushed for the understanding, explanation or justification of a standard procedure or regulation to be well presented along with the "Written Requirement". That detailed understanding of the reason for the requirement was important to keep "Changes" from being implemented that did not improve things. It also helped people identify flaws in the "Written Requirement" and provide corrective recommendations.
The likes of Team Trump are not interested in justifying their actions based on a set of criteria like the SDGs. In fact, evaluating their actions to date would show that almost everything they want to do is contrary to advancing toward the Sustainable Development Goals. The awareness of the reality of the damaging unacceptability of the made-up popular claims attempting to support damaging pursuits of personal interest and profitability would hopefully be a very powerful inoculation. Once a person understands the importance of being helpful, and chooses to try to help others, it is very unlikely they will regress to being Harmful (though a person over-penalized and not helped to become a more helpful person can become very harmfully motivated - the undeniably damaging result of Tough on Crime Mandatory Minimums).
So, one of the most important changes to make is the addition of Helpful/Harmful as the most important differentiation/categorization of people. Recognizing that polarization of the population, and working to reduce the portion that is knowingly or unwittingly tempted to be Harmful, is essential to keeping Harmful/less Helpful people like the members of Team Trump and the many unacceptable Winners hiding behind the Republican Brand (particularly the like of the House Freedom Caucus), from getting away with undeserved Winning that is understandably damaging to the future of humanity.
In summary, the success of Harmful Marketing (winning Appealing Creations of Impressions that are Harmful to the future of humanity) is the problem, not just for climate science. And inoculation of the population against it is essential.
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Nylo at 01:32 AM on 19 May 2017A Rough Guide to the Jet Stream: what it is, how it works and how it is responding to enhanced Arctic warming
Tom Curtis @87, this large change in position of the polar jet stream between Summer and Winter... what do yo think that causes it, if not precisely the difference in temperature gradient Pole-Equator? What other thing can influence the position of the Jet Stream?
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DPiepgrass at 00:00 AM on 19 May 2017Understanding adjustments to temperature data
Where is part two and part three of this series?
Moderator Response:[JH] Click on the Lessons from Predicitions button in the upper right hand corner of the article.
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ubrew12 at 20:53 PM on 18 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
Innoculation sounds like a good idea. Sometimes, I also use a kind of 'logical confrontation' when someone repeats a climate myth. For example, if someone says 'the climate has always changed, over millions of years' I like to challenge that person with 'name something, in the Universe, that hasn't changed over millions of years'. People will repeat non-sequitors ad-nauseum otherwise. If you just challenge them to examine the words coming out of their mouths, it may stop.
One-Planet-Forever@2 is on to something. I remember some decades ago, a book appeared, by conservative author Mona Charen, called "Do-Gooders: how Liberals hurt those they claim to help". This was a frontal attack on the very idea of 'Helpfulness', and is at the root of much conservative thought in America. But the conservative idea that 'people are basically bad' is a self-fulfilling prophecy. People who seek to do good do not always do good, but people who seek to do bad almost always succeed at doing bad. Good is good in part because its hard.
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DPiepgrass at 18:39 PM on 18 May 2017Contrary to Contrarian Claims, IPCC Temperature Projections Have Been Exceptionally Accurate
The IPCC FAR 'Best' BAU projected rate of warming from 1990 to 2012 was 0.25°C per decade. However, that was based on a scenario with higher emissions than actually occurred.
Where does this come from? I'm looking at the IPCC FAR and it says "Under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, the average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C) This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025." (page xi). Furthermore, the graph on page xxxiv appears to show almost constant CO2 emissions until 2020 in the BaU scenario, whereas it is reported that CO2 emissions have actually increased since 1990.
In the IPCC's defense, their second report in 1995 greatly reduced projections (SAR page 39), and the first report had said, in bold, “There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding” (page xii).
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nigelj at 13:42 PM on 18 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
OPOF @2, I don't think we can entirely escape the use of the terms liberal and conservative, because they describe real world, observable types of people. By analogy,it's the same as suicide as an issue, you can't deal with this by not talking about it (we are currently debating this issue in NZ).
Instead I try to make the observation that there are strengths and weaknesses in both liberal and conservative points of view. They are different ways of looking at issues, and different ways of trying to solve the same problems. So arguing which is better is a bit of a dead end, although I admit I personally do have a liberal bias. In fact we all have some characteristics of both, but for some evolutionary reason we also have liberal and conservative groups. But arguing about which is best seems a little pointless, because neither is workable enough alone to serve as some ideal model (in my opinion based on the normal definitions of these things). Having said that liberalism is a driving force for change which is a positive thing.
I agree quantifying who is more helpful, liberals or conservatives, is childish, and probably too likely to spark unhelpful conflict, and is an intellectual dead end, or at least a bit trivial. Anyway I can immediately think of helpful attributes in both groups, but they operate a little in different ways.
Regarding John Stuart Mill and his view that people should be helpful and not do things that have a negative impact on others (more or less), this is useful. I read some of his work many years ago. In fact even libertarians and Ayn Rand followers generally believe in a similar philosophy, sometimes expressed as people should be free to do as they wish as long as they don't impinge on the freedom of others. This is an attempt to promote freedom but realise (a little reluctantly perhaps) that freedom of action cannot be absolute, unless you want total anarchy and rule of the biggest and toughest. It is slightly esoteric, and I prefer a more practical approach of individuals should be free to do as they wish, as long as they don't harm others (against their will obviously, because we have things like competitive sports and accidents happen). Humanity has been passing laws forever, often on a rather arbitrary and sometimes an overly restrictive basis, or sometimes simply not enough laws. By using a guiding principle along the lines of John Stuart Mill the law starts to have appropriate boundaries and guiding principles, and deal with problems without becoming arbitrary or illogical or just self serving. The real challenge is getting people agreed on what is truly helpful or harmful, what impinges on freedom, etc.
If we are harming the environment, we are certainly potentially harming others, both in the present and future generations. What mystifies me is how libertarians could at least believe in some sort of harm philosophy, and then be so consistently rejecting of environmental laws. It's like a mental disconnect.
However on future generations, some people estimate that we are at risk of over fishing to the extent of literally wiping out all fish species within 50 years. It seems a frightening demonstration of reckless avarice and lack of control to let that happen. Sustainable fishing quota would be preferable, unless we are going to consign the oceans to oblivion and future generations to never eating real fish from the sea.
I have no doubt that buried in the writings of Mill and certain other political and ethics philosophers is this good principle of individuals being free to do as they wish,provided their actions don't harm others, and this is a basic good guiding principle for good government, and the development and evaluation of appropriate laws and regulations. If only everyone could catch onto this and use it as a foundation, rather than gut instincts and other more arbitray beliefs.
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scaddenp at 13:40 PM on 18 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
OPF - you might like to at Moral Foundation theory which gives the rather extends the understanding of liberal/conservative belong helpful/harmful. Potentially a lot of messaging on climate change has failed to touch the moral dimensions important to conservatives.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:14 PM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Digby Scorgie,
I just posted a comment to John Cook's most recent OP "Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation" that may give you reason to continue trying to be Helpful. There is a broad range of ways to be helpful locally-globally in the short-term to Infinitely long-term.
Climate Change is probably the biggest battle front of Helpful actions. It is global, deals with very long term considerations, and requires changes that are contrary to a massive amount of incorrectly over-developed perceptions of prosperity and opportunity. And it requires changes that are undeniably contrary to the interests of many very wealthy powerful people.
Helping on some of the other Sustainable Development Goals would undeniably be easier. But support for all of those goals is required from everyone who genuinely wants to be helpful.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:42 PM on 18 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
It may be helpful to identify a more important differentiating characteristic of individuals than "Liberal vs. Conservative".
I think it is more important to understand whether a person has a stronger:
- Desire to be Helpful in the development of a lasting better near and long term future for others (and themselves)
- Desire for a better present for themselves even if getting it could be understood to be Harmful to others (and themselves).
The limitation of Liberty as described by John Stuart Mill in "On Liberty" is essentially that freedom of action resulting from freedom of thought must not have a negative impact on others. Mill does not mention Future generations but it is likely he would have agreed that future generations qualify as Others. And Mill does state that the presentation of opinions that are likely to result in actions by others that are harmful would be an unacceptable action; something that people should not have the Liberty to do; something that the State would be expected to and allowed to effectively mitigate/address (I am currently re-reading the Essay so I am pretty sure of the statements made by Mill and his co-thinker Harriet Taylor, but I would have to spend some time tracking down exact quotes).
I Capitalized and Italicized Helpful and Harmful and will simply use those terms to refer to the types of character.
Though the amount of Helpful people (or degree of helpfulness of people) in the Liberal and Conservative categories could be evaluated to then try to declare which identifiable category was more Helpful, that would not be a helpful evaluation.
What would be more helpful is to focus on the importance of people desiring to be Helpful and recognize that Helpful people could probably exhibit the full range of any other type of categorization. That clarification of what it means to be Helpful could also be used for inoculation and be more helpful by protecting against a broad spectrum.
There should be very little doubt today about what constitutes being Helpful. There have been international efforts to increase awareness and understanding of human survival and improvement of life on this amazing planet. The 1972 Stockholm Conference established a rather comprehensive understanding of human interaction with the environment and other life on this planet. And the international efforts to increase awareness and understanding have continued though the past 45 years with the Sustainable Development Goals being the most recent compendium of awareness and understanding of the changes required for humanity's Better Future (with extensive back-up for each stated Goal). Helping achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with actions ranging from Locally to Globally and from Short-term to Infinitely Long-term is clearly what be Helpful means. And any actions that delay achieving the Sustainable Development Goals are clearly Harmful.
Actions regarding Climate Change are a specific distinct Goal. But the other goals also need to be achieved. Just achieving the Climate Change Goals would be rather irrelevant form the perspective of the Future of Humanity. The same goes for any of the other goals. People desiring the pursuit of any of the other goals would also need to understand the importance of supporting the climate change goals. I see this because of my developed understanding and promotion of Fair Trade. The diversity of Fair Trade issues can each be seen to relate in some way to the importance of achieving all 17 stated goals (not just the challenge of climate change - even though it is a significant consideration for Fair Trade food growers). Achieving the 17 goals will dramatically reduce the need for Fair Trade Promotion (ideally I would like to be worked-out-of-the-volunteer-job of promoting Fair Trade). Of course climate science will always be in need of efforts to increase awareness and better understanding even after human activity that is Harmful has ended. And maybe that leads to some jealousy by science-minded people who are not as interested in being Helpful.
The more Helpful people are more likely to have a better future (something I consider to be an axiom and have shared many times with my family, friends, co-workers, and any others when the opportunity to do so arises - a different way of stating that axiom is: Winning by getting away with being Harmful, or being less helpful than you could be, is possible but becomes increasingly difficult to maintain and ultimately cannot be sustained).
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Digby Scorgie at 11:58 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Susan Anderson
Relax, lass, and enjoy the show. I suppose I should be more concerned about the climate catastrophe heading our way, but in my cynical old age, I've found that it is easier to write off humanity, sit back, and watch the wheels come off — in slow motion.
Despite the foregoing, in moments of weakness I still find myself firing off "e-mails to the editor" from time to time. Recently I've had such missives on climate change published in no fewer than three different magazines. You won't find them, though, because they're all local New Zealand magazines. Nothing helps, of course.
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sauerj at 10:57 AM on 18 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
Linked below is a very good, explanatory TED talk (13mins) which was filmed just last month. The speaker is Ted Halstead, leader of the Climate Leadership Council, which is advocating a GOP-based RNCFD (revenue-neutral carbon fee & dividend) solution to hasten the reduction of carbon emissions. The starting point ($40/ton) is higher than CCL's but the ramp-up rate (from year-to-year) is slower after the start. But other than that, the two schemes are nearly identical.
www.ted.com/talks/ted_halstead_a_climate_solution_where_all_sides_can_win#t-775828 -
Bob Loblaw at 10:24 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Susan (or anyone else trying to add links to a comment):
The way to linkify a link when writing a comment is to first select the text you want to appear in place of the link (which can just be the text of the link). Then go to the Insert tab, and choose the little chain link symbol. A window will pop up where you then enter the hyperlink/URL.
You used to have to select some text first. It looks like the widget has been updated and now you can open the Insert Link dialog box even if you haven't. If text was preselected, the dialog box only has a field for the URL. If no text was selected, it will have both a text box and an URL box.
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nigelj at 07:38 AM on 18 May 2017Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation
The misinformation has a number of driving factors in my opinion:
The internet is a great thing, but has unfortunately given a platform for mass misinformation and junk science, and shallow rhetorical sophistry.
People have also become used to science, and bit disrespectful of science.
The dubious claims about "Iraq weapons of mass distruction" probably seriously eroded trust in the elites and authorities. Misinformation has filled the gap.
Liberalism correctly promotes tolerance, but sometimes this becomes tolerance of the absurd.
Conservatism has retreated In America into a closed, ideological bubble of strident beliefs, and anti logic, anti government programmes, and anti science thought. Vested business interests dominate. Not with all conservatives, but with some.
This innoculation approach by explaining the facts, and the myth, and the techniques of rhetorical sophistry used to obscure the facts, is without doubt one very good tool to fight back. It is something that needs wider exposure especially in schools. Don't blame yourself Mr Cook, you can't single handedly solve the issue.
Misinformation is similar to propaganda. I recall reading an article where after a while this repeating onslaught on the brain causes some people to simply give up, as they cant process the information any more so they just accept it.
Some people also welcome propaganda. "For propaganda to be effective, it requires submissive subjects. ... Most people want to be given ideological marching orders and talking points from an authority." Refer link below:
www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/why-does-propaganda-work-some-people-want-it
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Susan Anderson at 06:59 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
kids in schools and on buses, home attacks, spray painting, random stuff, real violence. Most definitely hate crimes, and there's a lot of it. This is very OT, so I will desist, but the frequency is mindboggling.
The other articles in that magazine (a lot) were also very fine. Thanks for activating the link.
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nigelj at 06:28 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Susan Anderson @7, yes I accept Bret Stephens is not a Trump Lackey. Your links do show he has been genuinely critical of Trump on some things. He does share other views with Trump, and maybe I jumped to conclusions out of annoyance with the man.
I agree with your comments in post 12 about Trump, liberalism, education and hate crimes ( I don't actually like the term hate crimes as its a bit vague and pc sounding, but I assume you mean demeaning comments and actions towards moslems and other minority ethnicities. I hate this sort of thing with a vengeance). Trump and his scaredy cat, obedient, sychophantic Republican supporters (and they truly are acting like lackeys) have a lot to answer for.
However I dont think we can simply stay silent about people like Stephens. I know there's a risk that every word one says draws attention to the guy, and he obviously wants this, but it's even worse to say nothing, and create the impression what he says is the truth (on climate change). What the other commentators at the NY times need to do is stand up for the science of climate change, and be less reticient about it. This will take the focus off Stephens. I think Stephens is a bit of an attention seeker.
Liberalism correctly promotes tolerance, and generally avoiding insulting comments, but sometimes this evolves into an unfortunate tendency to be overly restrained, confused and bogged down in detail and excessisve nuance. It's important to sometimes speak out simply and strongly, and call a spade a spade, and tell people they are simply wrong, but obviously back it up with solid evidence and logic.
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Susan Anderson at 05:22 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Reminder: Stephens is a follower of Lomborg. He appears not to be numerate or have a good scientific training. He's a writer (not an editor).
Liz Spayd, the "Public Editor" was a poor choice. She refuses to engage with the many fact-based responses she received. To these two, facts appear not to matter, and nothing appears to penetrate that armor. I have one friend whom she criticized publicly precisely because he provided a fact-based rebuttal. What do you do with people who don't want to hear it because they're so convinced they're right? (It's happening on the left too these days.) It's easier to hate/attack than to think/reason/act.
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Susan Anderson at 05:15 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
I only halfheartedly agree with myself. But the word "lackey" has to go, and Stephens does not support Trump. He does, however, help the enablers and that hurts the 1+1 = 2 problem.
As to NYT commentariat, we have a much bigger presence of Trump supporters than we usedta (also Russian and other kinds of trolls, some paid). We also have an increase in hate crimes, even in the more liberal Boston area. The empowering of narrow minded selfishness across the board is very bad and feelings about immigrants are ugly. Lewis Black did a neat piece on how Canada was too busy helping our victims to take us on.
I had a conversation about ethics recently and was reminded of the WWII poster: "Use it up, wear it out, make it do ... or do without" and during the course of the conversation realized that what's bugging me (along with a lot of other things, like the failure of education to make kids more observant and curious and less inclined to overuse electronic devices) is that we should be on a war footing about climate.
There's no way the infotainment industry and weapons-grade marketing machine is going to let us get serious and reality until it's too late. People are right to complain that the NYT should support its "truth" campaign with actual truth. People are so horrified by Trump they can't look away. I'd have front page news every day about climate change and all its offshoots, worldwide weather, etc. Sort of like the NYT magazine that came out about the same time as the Stephens rollout, and got little attention for its stellar range and presentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/magazine/our-climate-future-is-actually-our-climate-present.html
Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated.
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rbgage at 04:18 AM on 18 May 2017NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
I know nothing about the climate other than what I see out my windows. If, in fact, mankind in it's wisdom, is gumming up the environment, I'd not oppose mitigations as long as my life style doesn't plumit to that of the 17 hundreds or less.
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Wol at 04:02 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Aplogies - my post @ 10 was formatted OK when I wrote it but all the ASCII 13s disappeared in the post!
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Wol at 04:00 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
I think it's important not to be drawn into arguments about the economics of CO2 reduction, which is always a frontrunner in the denialists' agenda.There are two completely different - although (obviously) intertwined issues:1) Is AGW a reality? Will it a serious threat?2) If so, how can it be ameliorated? How much would that cost?If both the answers to (1) are "yes" then economic arguments are irrelevant.To my mind it's perfectly logical to accept (1) but to hold the opinion that one doesn't care. But that's rarely advanced as an argument: deniers will not accept the science in the first place.Engaging them with the pluses and minuses of the economics of preventing AGW is therefore useless and rather plays into their hands. -
Dcrickett at 02:55 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Typo. Sorry: it should be
God said, Let 1+1=2. And it still is.
"Benign essential tremor" is not so benign.
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Dcrickett at 02:52 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Ref: Susan Anderson & Nijelj discussion
Most often I agree whole-heartedly with Ms Anderson; this time I agree half-heartedly. Yes, NYT has several fine climate reporters, and they deserve far more attention and respect than they get.w to be paranoid while living and working in Mexico for several years. Paranoia is a survival techdnique, not an illness. Being pretty thoroly mexicuted, I see the hiring of Stephens as a ploy to make NYT look "fair and balanced" on the climate issue, for revenue's sake. (Regrettably, my name for people thus selected violates the valued standards for commenting.)
Reality is worse. The NYT commentariat's "liberalism" is shallow. There was an article recently about "Dreamer" students at the University of California at Merced: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/education/edlife/daca-undocumented-university-of-california-merced-fiat-lux-scholars.html which aroused very hostile reactions from a commentariat that not so long before had been sympathetic to deportees who were upstanding members of their communities. Why the difference? The dreamers were taking university slots and scholarships that the commenters crave for their own kids.
An uncomfortably large number of members in my famously "liberal" parish insist on believing my kids (who are now 50-somethings) got great scholarships only because they are racially mixed. Same thing: the not-like-us people are getting goodies rightfully ours. And this is neither "conservative" nor "liberal" — it is merely bigotry.
Gotta get off this "Climate is a right/left divide" thing. Courteously protest Stephens for his climate mendacity. A granddaughter of mine marched in her local Climate protest with a picket sign: "God said, Let 1+1=2. And it still his." Denial of this is not a matter of opinion. It is a lie, a dangerous lie.
Moderator Response:[PS] Link fixed. You might like to take a moment to reread your comment before submitting to reduce typos. It makes it easier for others to read.
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Susan Anderson at 01:32 AM on 18 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
nigelgj, I don't dispute the awfulness of the Stephens hire or his opinions, and I consider the insidiousness of Lomborgianism more dangerous than outright denial in some ways. But it is important to be accurate and the word "lackey" is classic early Iron Curtainspeak as well as incorrect in Stephens' case. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/10/opinion/comey-firing-donald-trump.html and https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/opinion/how-trump-may-save-the-republic.html
My other point, which is advanced with humility, I hope, is that the broad focus on him, though negative, actually promotes his "brand" where a studied lack of interest in his dishonesty would, in my humble opinion, have been more effective.
In addition, the NYT, as I said, has several fine climate reporters and they get a whole lot less attention than this mess. This eagerness to condemn and isolate with the "pure" ensures that the united Republicans will overcome fractious Democrats for the foreseeable future. Republicans aren't boycotting Fox and Breitbart. Science deniers are not so choosy about the tools they use.
Moderator Response:Links fixed. Use the Link tool in the comment editor to create these yourself.
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DPiepgrass at 21:29 PM on 17 May 2017Hockey stick or hockey league?
Can anyone point me to a graph of temperature reconstructions longer than 1000 years?
Moderator Response:[TD] Pages 2k for the past 2,000 years. Marcott for the past 11,000 years, Shakun for the previous years back to 20,000 years ago, shown together with recent instrumental records (click links there to get to their peer-reviewed papers, or use the Search box at the top left of this page to find more about them). But take care to not be misled by people who misinterpret or misrepresent Greenland ice core data.
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Tom Curtis at 20:22 PM on 17 May 2017Temp record is unreliable
cosmoswarrior @405:
here are the differences between raw and asjusted GHCNv3 data, as calculated by Victor Venema:
The GHCN data was until recently the entire basis of the NOAA land only surface temperature data, and almost the entire basis of the GISS meteorological stations only temperature data. The comparison applies for those sources also. As can easilly be seen, there is almost no difference between the raw and adjusted data from 1980 forward. Your claim that "the temperature history during the last two decades of the 20th century was rewritten to double the rate of temperature increase" is simply false.
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cosmoswarrior at 19:52 PM on 17 May 2017Temp record is unreliable
How can it be said that the temperature record is reliable when in June 2015, NOAA published a paper describing certain adjustments they had made to "improve" the data, and in so doing, they eliminated the 17 year warming hiatus that was troubling many climate scientists. Not only that, but the temperature history during the last two decades of the 20th century was rewritten to double the rate of temperature increase. Assuming those adjustments were necessary to correct data errors, it opens questions as to the competency of the individuals involved in the data handling. Evidently, there were serious problems in the data gathering and processing that went on for 20-30 years, and it took an apparent slowdown in the warming to bring it to anyone's attention. Allegedly, the problem is "fixed" now, but with the lack of competency that plagued the data handling process, how do we know the fix is any better than the original?
Moderator Response:[JH] Argumentative/perjorative statement snipped. Please read the SkS Comments Policy and adhere to it.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:33 PM on 17 May 2017Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial
Essentially all denial is implicatory denial of one form or another. Maybe the view that the detested implication will occur is true or false, but that still doesn't change the underlying fear/detestation motivation.
Is dealing with Climate Change going to lead to socialism/one world government. No, So the implication is false.
Does the reality of Climate Change imply that a Christians view that God wouldn't allow the world to be like that is wrong? Yes, the implication is true.
Either way, they both trigger denial. However, where the implication is false, there is more room to work with that. It's hard to work with the grieving Christian who has to confront their worldview being destroyed in a profound way. Because it is being destroyed and that will be painful for them -
georgitsu at 09:40 AM on 17 May 2017Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial
Totally agree, nigelj. Whenever I discuss climate change with my dad, his denialism always boils down to his fear of socialism and one world government.
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nigelj at 09:08 AM on 17 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Susan Anderson @4,
I agree alternative opinions are healthy. I dont mind quite so much if Stephens is one opinion out of a range of opinions. Ideally I look for media like a newspaper that have a range of views, or it just becomes a closed bubble, and actually a bit boring.
But the article's on this website on Bret Stephens have created the impression with me that Bret Stephens takes a lead opinion writing role, which would worry me. The articles on SS have not really spelled out whether the NY Times have a range of opinions.
But putting that aside, there's simply no excuse for blatant cherrypicking of information or getting basic facts wrong, or being generally misleading, and in my "opinion" Stephen's is guilty of all three. I'm sick of this whether he's an opinion writer or news writer.
You can be critical and/ or supportive of climate science without all that garbage. It's not opinion writing, its deceit! Yeah we have come to expect this from some conservatives, but it's not good enough.
And Stephens has expressed equally misleading views on various subjects in addition to climate change. He comes across to me as a fairly extreme libertarian.
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Susan Anderson at 07:07 AM on 17 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Stephens made some of his bones opposing Trump, and has had two recent articles making that clear. When he's not on the topic of climate, he's not nearly as bad. He is absolutely not a Trump "lackey" though the accusation that he is a climate obscurantist has considerable merit, and whether you're a Trumpian or Kochian is largely a distinction without a difference these days.
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Susan Anderson at 07:05 AM on 17 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
I'm not defending Stephens but he was hired for NYT "Opinion". It's kind of like what people do about Trump, trying to insert reason, logic, and evidence where these concepts are inappropriate. If you remember that Stephens is a sort of disciple of Bjorn Lomborg, and makes his living as a soi-disant conservative commentator, you can avoid the pitfalls and trying to figure out why the stupid. It's just stupid, you can leave it at that.
So many people I respect have gone the "unsubscribe" route that I hesitate to condemn the all or nothing approach. Unfortunately, it has not had the desired effect of correcting the error, but rather amplified it. Meanwhile they've hired Brad Plumer and have a large group of good reporters. All the attention paid to Stephens seems to feed the beast, making him better clickbait that if we really ignored him.
It's an ongoing problem with the commentariat, how to find a way to effectively communicate about facts without feeding the monster of falsehood.
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nigelj at 06:39 AM on 17 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
At least Germany are making an effort, and achieving some level of success. The trend is in the right direction and costs are no higher than America, so criticism is nit picking and misses the big picture. Instead of rubbishing Germany, Stephens could be a whole lot more supportive and maybe some constructive criticism rather than making deceptive criticisms.
It's also a classic bait and switch. Criticise Germany to take the focus of Americas problems, and Trumps pathetic attitude to climate change. Stephens is obviously another Trump lackey.
But Just looking at Germanys progress on reducing emissions in the graph in the Guardian, there's not much progress with cars, in fact none. I would have thought they would have embraced electric cars by now, and had some incentive scheme.
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nigelj at 06:32 AM on 17 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
Is Stephens deliberately cherry picking 2009, knowing its deceptive? Or is Stephens is so badly educated he can't even interpret trends in a simple graph? It has to be one or the other, but either demonstrate he is not fit to be an editor of an environmental science column in the media.
Maybe Trump is right, the NY Times print fake news. A prime example would be Brett Stephens with his deceptions and ignorance on emissions and warming trends.
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JWRebel at 05:15 AM on 17 May 2017NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
The continual thesis that German electrical prices are punishingly high because of the role of renewables does not stand up to examination very well. You cannot just compare the retail price of a KWh because that includes taxes and VAT. The taxes vary with the volume, and there are also often fixed or variable charges for network access affecting the price. Without a detailed comparison that breaks down all charges no apples:apples comparison is possible, and that includes comparisons to neighbouring countries.
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nigelj at 12:42 PM on 16 May 2017Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial
Nice podcast. I have noticed most climate sceptics embrace or indulge in logical fallacies, and often also have vested interests, or ideological beliefs that are anti tax and anti government regulation. This appears to be the root cause that drives their climate science denialism.
Both these denialist issues, embracing logical fallacies, and being driven by strident ideology, are fundamentally lazy thinking, that is a form of anti -intellectualism and self centredness. It's little more than a shallow gut reaction. And the current White House are massive examples of all of this.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 12:41 PM on 16 May 2017Science of Climate Change online class starting next week on Coursera
Very cool curiousd, well done.
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John Hartz at 10:18 AM on 16 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19
Links to the following articles have been or will be posted on the SkS Facebook page today:
Under Trump, inconvenient data is being sidelined by Juliet Eilperin, Politics, Washington Post, May 14, 2017
Trump Consults Fake-News Memes When Contemplating Climate-Change Policy by Eric Levitz, Daily Intelligencer, New York Magazine, May 15, 2017
No room for science in Trump administration, Opinion by Chrsitine Todd Whitman, CNN, May 15, 2017Their contents reinforce Chiskoz's commentary.
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ghagilaris at 10:00 AM on 16 May 2017Renewables can't provide baseload power
According to these researchers, renewables can provide all electricity needs (including baseload) around the world and they have built a simulation to make the point:
Moderator Response:[GT Link activated]
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chriskoz at 09:03 AM on 16 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19
'Fake but accurate' - an interesting analysis by WP of inner workings of current White House, that I'm citing after my local paper smh.
While the analysis concerns the broader subject of WH's vulnerability to fake news and their subsequent delusional lives, the triggering fake news herein is the "impending ice age" of 1970s. That's why I'm commenting on it here.
It turns out T-man surrounded himself with all-around "yes-people", e.g. security adviser McFarland (successor of disgraced Michael Flynn) and anonymoius "official" who defended the "impending ice age" bunkum as "fake but accurate", Kellyanne Conway who allegedly hates his boss secretely, all the way to Rex Tillerson, who has to "earn his [T-man;s] confidence every day". That's, taken at face value, simply a flattery for the purpose of ingratiating oneself at all cost by Tillerson, colloquially known as "brown nosing".
Interesting to learn, that those people, who's advice and actions should bear dignity and pride and responsibility and alertness to dangers lurking upon the president and the nation, have lost all of such qualities, replaced by unqualified flattery. The actions of the flattery are as ridiculous as shown, because the boss who receives the flattery (T-man) has the intelligence and moral development of a 6th grader juvelile, colloquially he can be called a spoiled brat. Quite remarkable that poeple can fall into the pitfalls of flattery so badly, that even a spoiled brat on the other end does not bother them.
At this point I want to draw a generalisation: the climate science denial by the GOP can be seen as its flattery towards their "bosses" who are fossil fuel magnates, just as the denial of reality by WH officials is a flattery towards T-man. GOP say only the things about climate science that FF industry wants to hear: it's plainly visible throughout.
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Susan Anderson at 06:47 AM on 16 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19
All kinds of riches in those links. Of particular interest were updates on the state of methane. I didn't know Arctic methane seeps could have anything to do with slowing emissions. Weird!
Also Antarctica, where there's always room to increase my knowledge.
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curiousd at 06:40 AM on 16 May 2017Science of Climate Change online class starting next week on Coursera
I have had an exciting time, nearly a month, collaborating with David Archer in updating his "Modtran Infrared Light in the Atmosphere." I am grateful to David Archer for this opportunity. I thank the folks who contributed their feedback on this site.
We are finished updating the website for now. There is a difficult issue that remains to simmer, but do check out what has been done to date.
Some of the new results:
1. The underlying Planck distribution has been extended to encompass 2 wn to 2200 wn.
2. Now if one calls up the U.S. Standard Atmosphere, no GHG, T offset by minus 33.2 degrees to produce a surface at 255 K, whereas you used to obtain 225 w/msqd, you now obtain 233 watts/meter sqd. If you use the Stefan Boltzmann law and the emissivity of 0.98 you ger 234 watts/ meter sqd.
3. The clear sky OLR obtained by using the default GHG used to be 260 watts / meter squared. It is now 267 watts/ meter sqd. I assume an observor distance of 70 km. If the emissivity were changed to 1 from 0.98 one would obtain an OLR of 272 watts per meter sqd. The AIRS spectrometer obtains 274 wattsper meter sqd.
It is difficult for me to deduce what AIRS uses for emissivity; in actuality the Earth surfaceemissivity is a function of wave number.
4. A "Freon Scale button" has been added.
5. Now if you look downward from the Earth Surface you obtain an OLR for U.S. Standard of 382.14 watts/ meter sqd. If you use Stefan Boltzmann law assumimg emissivity one you get 391 watts/ per meter squared. Dividing 382.14/391= 0.97. This is a natural procedure a user would go through to determine the assumed emissivity of the program, if that user felt it unlikely that he/she would understand the contents of the "Show Raw Model Output" button. The procedure gives 0.97 instead of 0.98 probably because even the window between 2 wn and 2200 wn has a termination error.
The procedure described in the previous paragraph, using the old version of "Modtran Infrared Light in the Atmosphere," would yield an emissivity of 0.92, which is impossibly small.
6. The incident insolation for the Tropical setting lies between 300 watts per meter sqd and 320 watts / meter sqd. (Petty, p. 4.) This should equal the upward thermal IR power, which now is 297 watts/ meter sqd, and would convert to 306 watts per meter sqd if the emissivity were changed to one.
There is one unresolved issue. What is the best way to create a reasonable altitude versus temperature plot in the chart to the right of the plot of intensity versus wavelength? Previously the shape of such plots, given a large temperature offset of the surface, were quite complex, and based on a model that is lost in the mists of time. We believe we have some idea of a means toward creating realistic plots for positive temperature offsets, but not negative offsets. Therefore, for reasons of consistency and simplicity the assumption made for now is that both the surface and the temperature of the atmosphere are given the same offset. Changing the stratosphere temperature in this manner is more than questionable, but a suitable alternative is not obvious to us.
This issue is found in other packages. SpectralCalc simply goes to the opposite extreme so that the Earth surface offset is decoupled from the temperature of the atmosphere, and if this procedure results in a abrupt temperature discontinuity so be it.
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Russell8621 at 06:24 AM on 16 May 2017A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
The Dilbert strip behind this furor:
https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2017/05/why-science-journals-arent-published-in.html
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dudo39 at 01:50 AM on 16 May 2017SkS Analogy 3 - The Greenhouse Effect is Like a Cloudy Night
KR, thats precisely my point: statisctics do not provide a solution.
As to P K Dick's quote, I may add that believing does not explain a thing in science
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Susan Anderson at 01:33 AM on 16 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
"failure is an important part of innovation" (from Brookings)
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Susan Anderson at 00:49 AM on 16 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
Thanks for the update and good sourcing. I appreciate the frustration with inaction and stubborn political and media resistance to facing facts, which I share. Thanks particularly for the Brookings summary.
In general, as soon as someone starts to say something along the lines of "nofink works, so why do anyfink" I tune out. It's a failure to acknowledge the problem, which is life threatening not just in the lifetimes of younger people, but in my view within the next 20 years give or take a few.
That means, even if its not working - and particularly if the only objective is that it has not been demonstrated to work yet - we need to keep trying.
Life is not something we have a choice to refuse by proxy. Proxy refusals are pretty much evasive bunk.
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Tom Curtis at 00:39 AM on 16 May 2017Study: to beat science denial, inoculate against misinformers' tricks
karly @19:
"Nobody, ... , can produce one paper (peer-reviewed or not) that shows, unequivocally, that a reduction in CO2 lowers global temperature."
Actually, here is one by Arrhenius in 1898. He writes:
"We may now inquire how great must the variation of the carbonic acid in the atmosphere be to cause a given change of the temperature. The answer may be found by interpolation in Table VII. To facilitate such an inquiry, we may make a simple observation. If the quantity of carbonic acid decreases from 1 to 0.67, the fall of temperature is nearly the same as the increase of temperature if this quantity augments to 1.5. And to get a new increase of this order of magnitude (3°.4), it will be necessary to alter the quantity of carbonic acid till it reaches a value nearly midway between 2 and 2.5. Thus if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression. This rule--which naturally holds good only in the part investigated--will be useful for the following summary estimations."
Here is another by Richard Tol a century later. He writes:
"This paper demonstrates that there is a robust statistical relationship between the records of the global mean surface air temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide over the period 1870–1991. As such, the enhanced greenhouse effect is a plausible explanation for the observed global warming. Long term natural variability is another prime candidate for explaining the temperature rise of the last century. Analysis of natural variability from paleo-reconstructions, however, shows that human activity is so much more likely an explanation that the earlier conclusion is not refuted. But, even if one believes in large natural climatic variability, the odds are invariably in favour of the enhanced greenhouse effect. The above conclusions hold for a range of statistical models, including one that is capable of describing the stabilization of the global mean temperature from the 1940s to the 1970s onwards. This model is also shown to be otherwise statistically adequate. The estimated climate sensitivity is about 3.8 °C with a standard deviation of 0.9 °C, but depends slightly on which model is preferred and how much natural variability is allowed."
Wasn't so hard, was it.
Of course you will now reject both examples by equivocating on "unequivocal". Neither paper equivocates on their results, but you will reinterpret "show, unequivocally" to mean "provide definitive proof"; which in turn will turn out to mean that you require mathematical proof, at least for something you are disinclined to believe.
That game is, of course, massively uninteresting for those who really want their beliefs to be guided by evidence.
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Eclectic at 22:38 PM on 15 May 2017Study: to beat science denial, inoculate against misinformers' tricks
Karly, nobody can produce one paper (peer-reviewed or not) that shows, unequivocally, that a reduction in solar output lowers global temperature.
Yet the planet is "highly likely" to cool if the sun's output reduces.
Some things simply do not need to be investigated via a scientific paper — unless one is aiming to win an Ig Nobel Prize.
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karly at 22:27 PM on 15 May 2017Study: to beat science denial, inoculate against misinformers' tricks
I've been here before, so don't bother with the deluge of abuse. Simply provide one paprer (only one) that proves your point. Reducing CO2 levels in the atmosphere lowers global temperatures.
Moderator Response:[JH] Argumentative and repetititve.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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karly at 22:11 PM on 15 May 2017Study: to beat science denial, inoculate against misinformers' tricks
I can produce dozens of articles (peer-reviewed, if you insist), showing that vaccination is effective. Nobody, NOBODY, can produce one paper (peer-reviewed or not) that shows, unequivocally, that a reduction in CO2 lowers global temperature.
Moderator Response:[JH] The use of all-caps constitutes shouting and is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. Please read the policy and adhere to it.
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