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Comments 21651 to 21700:

21651. Jonbo69 at 20:15 PM on 20 December 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #51
       

       In the comments section under the article in Carbon Brief re glacial melt, there is a scientist promoting a paper in which he claims the current trend in glacial melt is part of a natural cycle. I was wondering if anyone knows of this scientist and his work? I think the online journal he has published in looks very dubious, but according to Wikipedia, it is peer reviewed.

       https://www.carbonbrief.org/shrinking-glaciers-categorical-evidence-climate-change

       http://www.academia.edu/8915481/Aryas_C_Cycle_-_Climate_change_natural_---Dr_Ritesh_arya

21652. MA Rodger at 20:15 PM on 20 December 2016
       There's no empirical evidence
       

       Noting that we are off-topic on this post (as pointed out @317), this is a brief extra point to the foregoing.

       The climate of Venus is overwhelmingly CO2 and this does provide a strong greenhouse effect. But the temperature of Venus requires more as a pure CO2 greenhouse contains many holes in the IR spectrum. (This is expained well p57-58 in Chapter 3 Goody & Walker 1973.) These holes are now known to be plugged by H2O & SO2 but these require to be at a level that does not greatly increase albedo & cool the planet. (See this paper by Bullock & Grispoon.)

21653. Eclectic at 20:05 PM on 20 December 2016
       Ocean acidification isn't serious
       

       Andrew1776, please revise your spelling as you go along.   The dianasaurs of the crestacean period are extinct - but they deserve some respect, all the same !

       Like 1776, your ideas are certainly revolutionary (but not in any way evolutionary).  You seem to be suggesting (against the evidence) that the marine life forms will benefit from lower pH and a much higher pH-logiston level.   Or some similar eighteenth century level of concepts.

       Andrew, there have been a great many advances in science since 1776.   You should embrace these advances, rather than reject them.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] please stick to comments on content not grammar or style.

21654. Andrew1776 at 19:03 PM on 20 December 2016
       Ocean acidification isn't serious
       

       Rob P

       I'm interested in your thoughts on rapid rise in CO2 causing mass extinction.  You say that CO2 was high during the crestacean period, but then you say it was a rapid rise in CO2 that caused the catestrophic events of the K/Pg boundary.  How did it rapidly rise if it was already high? 

21655. Andrew1776 at 18:45 PM on 20 December 2016
       Ocean acidification isn't serious
       

       Glenn Tamblyn

       Thanks for the response. My field is materials science. I have a fair amount of experience with cement chemistry, which as you may know involves calcining limestone (CaCO3) and creating calcium silicate hydrates that precipitate to form cement. The chemisty is actually quite complex.  You may not know this, but Le Chatlier was a cement chemist and he described the Le Chatlier priniciple in his PhD dissertation on cement hydration.   

       So yes I get the chemistry. And no I didn't find the "OA not OK" series to be helpful. Most of what I saw was just a review of basic acid/base chemistry (no pun intended) =). The "peanut throwing" example is quite below my level of understanding. Perhaps it is helpful for people without a chemistry background.

       I'm intersted in finding real data on the optimal pH for for coral.  Coral evolved when the oceans had a pH of 7.4.  My theory is that lower pH should be good for the vast majority of coral (perhaps pH 7.4-7.8).

       I did a google search for "coral mineralization".  The first article that turns up is Bionature 2011. It says the rate limiting step of coral mineralization is CO2(aq) + H2O CaCO2.  In other words, Coral production is limited by the amount of CO2 dissolved in the ocean. Which is what you expect. CO2 is the raw material for making Coral. Increasing its concentration should have a beneficial affect. Duh, no?

       So how do climatoligist come to the opposite conclusion? I'm not exactly sure, but it seems to be related to the fact that rising temperatures reduce the solubility of CO2.  So theoretically, if the temperature rises, there would be less dissolved CO2 in the ocean and it would harm the coral.  Of course that isn't happening. The pH of the ocean is lower, not higher. And you can have it both ways. You can't say that the CO2 is going to harm the Coral because the temeprature is going to be higher and reduce the CO2 and use that as a justification why increasing CO2 is bad. If the pH is lower, it can't be higher. The logic is just wrong. 

       Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any actual evidence that higher temperature is bad for Coral appart from the risk of less CO2 in the water. So, given the ample data we have that pH of the oceans is dropping, the temperature doesn't matter. The Coral should be healthier in years to come because of lower pH.

       I didn't see anything about boric acid. Perhaps I'll dive into that another night. I'm sure it is just like everyting else I've seen...all the data points to CO2 having a beneficial effect on planet. If anything, the planet is sick right now due to lack of CO2. 

       Believe it or not, I'm an environmentalist.  But every time I look at the raw data it suggests that CO2 is good for the environment. I've come to this forum because I'm at a complete loss as to how climatoligists think CO2 is bad. It's plant food. What's not to like about feeding the plants?

       Moderator Response:

       [Rob P] 

       "Which is what you expect. CO2 is the raw material for making Coral. Increasing its concentration should have a beneficial affect"

       It's a shame you don't understand the peanut-throwing analogy, because it explains perfectly why your non-expert intuition is wrong here. Once equilibrium shifts toward dissolution the coral polyp has to expend more energy to build its aragonite skeleton. A number of lab experiments, in published papers, seem to bear this out.

       It's the availability of carbonate ions in the calcifying fluid that is important. The polyp raises pH in order to supersaturate the calcifying fluid and allow aragonite crystals to precipitate. By lowering ocean pH we're making it harder for the coral polyp to build its skeleton.

21656. Andrew1776 at 15:49 PM on 20 December 2016
       Rapid climate changes more deadly than asteroid impacts in Earth’s past – study shows.
       

       The only reason people even believe a far fetched story like "an asteroid hit the earth" or a volcanic eruption is that nobody has proposed anything more plausible.

       So here's a proposal: There are two things that support all life on earth: CO2 and sunlight. There is only one of those components that we know for sure has decreased by orders of magnitude over an extended period of time. Hint: it isn't sunlight.

       CO2 is the ingredient of life. The catestrophic events in history are likely caused by organisms (plants or plankton) that evolved and depleted CO2 to a new low, killing everyting that lived off the plants that required higher CO2 concentrations. Adding CO2 to our atmosphere is likely to be the best thing we could do for our planet.

       I predict that in 200 years from now people will look back on the global warming issue with bewilderment. How could restoring the chemical basis of life (CO2) be a bad thing. Our progeny will think we are as unsophisticated as the society that encarcerated Galileo for saying the earth revolves around the sun.

21657. Andrew1776 at 15:49 PM on 20 December 2016
       Rapid climate changes more deadly than asteroid impacts in Earth’s past – study shows.
       

       Both the "asteroid" theory and the "Decan traps" theory have three very glaring problems. The first is the classic scientific blunder: correlation is not causation. There is no evidence that rapid increases in CO2 harms life or that the temperature rose.  They only know that the volcanos erupted (or maybe an asteroid hit the earth) and then they speculate about the possibilities of what might have happened. 

       Secondly, the extintion of the dianasaurs and the Decan traps aren't even necessarily correlated. The extintion of the dinasaurs isn't well defined and some believe it happened over millions of years.  The inaccuracy of dating the extinction of dinasaurs means that even the correlation is speculation.

       Third, over the course of evolution, CO2 has dropped from seven thousand ppm to 180 ppm.  A catastrophic rise in CO2 is not consistent with what was happening, which is a decrease in CO2.

21658. Glenn Tamblyn at 15:46 PM on 20 December 2016
       Ocean acidification isn't serious
       

       Andrew1776.
       
       Firstly, what field of science are you in, because from your comments it obviously isn't ocean chemistry.
       
       Next, pH itself isn't the primary consideration, that is just an indicator of the bigger issue which is the change of carbonate chemistry linked to changes in CO2 and pH and the flow on consequences for shell forming marine life that use calcium carbonate in forming their shells.
       
       If you haven't done so already I would recomend you read the intermediate level of this rebuttal, then follow that up by reading the OA is not OK series, linked from the side-bar on the upper left. Only then will you begin to know enough to understand how unihformed your comments are.
       
       Next, even in the hypotheal that we could change the pH in ways you suggest, it would seem naive to assume that this would then be beneficial. Marine organisms have evolved to live in a vastly complex chemical environment where pH is a contributing factor in a wide range of chemistry. Changes in pH may be positive or negative, that is a very open question.
       
       Additionally, making major changes in ocean pH requires major disturbances such as we are currently experiencing. Given sufficient time (this might be centuries to millenia) pH will return to previous levels. This is part of the complex chemistry you don't seem to know much about.

       So for example, this statement of your is simplistic

       "The pH of the ocean is directly related to the atmospheric CO2 concentration".
       
       Also to the concentration of boric acid in the ocean for example.
       
       So before making any further comments, might I suggest you get a lot more knowledge first. Then come back and revisit your comments.
       
       Because currently your last 2 paragraphs in your second post are violations of the comments policy here. Your apparent lack of knowledge may have led you to make them but the other insinuations of political bias etc are out of order. Nothing went wrong in 'climate science'. You are just commenting with insufficient knowledge. Go get some.

21659. Andrew1776 at 15:09 PM on 20 December 2016
       Ocean acidification isn't serious
       

       I'am a scientist, but not a climate scientist.  I don't understand why climate scientists don't ask and answer more unbiased questions.  For instance, regarding the pH of the ocean, shouldn't you be trying to figure out what the optimal pH of the ocean is.  A good scientist would ask questions like: What pH would create the most biodiversity?, or What pH would sustain the most food for humans?, or What pH would sustain the most total mass of ocean life?, or Which species would benefit most from a drop in pH?  

       This kind of unbiased science allows government policy makers to make informed decisions. We need all the facts on the table.  If the scientist starts with a political agenda in mind, he or she robs society of the opportunity to decide the policies that are best for society. The scientist becomes the judge, jury, and prosecution.  

       Scientists are supposed to be trained to avoid political bias in their research.  The peer review process is suppose to ferret out political bias. I'm not sure what happened with climatology, but the peer review process seems to have failed us in this particular field.

       Moderator Response:

       [GT]
       
       Violations of site policy blocked. Get some more knowledge before you throw around accusations. At present you just look a little foolish.

21660. Andrew1776 at 14:41 PM on 20 December 2016
       Ocean acidification isn't serious
       

       What is wrong with a lower pH? It seems to me it would be a good thing if we could increase our CO2 to 2000 ppm.  The ocean pH would probably drop to around 7.4, which is physiological conditions.  

       Seems to me that the catastrophic event has already happened. The catastrophe happened when the CO2 dropped to 180-280 ppm from 1000-4000 ppm, which was the concentration of CO2 when invertibrate life evolved on this earth.   

       The pH of the ocean is directly related to the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The pH was obviously at 7.4 when invertibrates evolved because our enzymes don't function at a different pH. Organisms have evolved to maintain a pH of 7.4 despite the fact that our environment no longer has that pH. Seems ridiculous to worry about restoring that pH. There may be a few organism that get outcompeted by the burst of biodiversity that would be almost certain to occur if we return to the non-hostile environment of 1,000-4,000 ppm CO2. 

       Moderator Response:

       [Rob P] - The rate of change seems to be the key issue. See here: Why were the ancient oceans favorable to marine life when atmospheric carbon dioxide was higher than today?

       The image below (also included in the linked blog post above) perfectly demonstrates how the actual experts have a far better handle on this than you. Both fossils date from ancient periods when atmospheric carbon dioxide was much higher than now, but only the fossil on the right lived in a time of ocean acidification. The geologically-rapid, but many times slower-than-present, increase in atmospheric CO₂ during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum drove carbonate undersaturation of the surface ocean.

        

21661. scaddenp at 13:25 PM on 20 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       Yes, the large grazers were birds, and I can see the soil microbiology might have evolved very differently with hooved grazers but I cant see the evolutionary driver that says such a system should be net carbon sink, and stay that way when you intensify farming. RedBaron has provided papers showing that indeed there are farms that are sequestering carbons well above enteric emissions though soil emission data is very sketchy in what I have found. Of course there are also studies which show SOC increase but not above soil + enteric emissions. What is representative? (The GHG inventories for each country dont appear to believe that grassland SOC is net absorber but then good grazing management is not practised everywhere either - factory farms for starters). Can farms demonstrating high SOC increase be replicated everywhere and provide a good mitigation strategy?  - or are there other issues at play which confound all the scientific effort over 40 years in NZ and Australia? I am hoping we havent found the right formula but understanding what is the difference is crucial. Hardly an idle question either. The payoff for our system in getting dairy to be net GHG sink is immense - CH4 is about 1/2 of our total GHG emissions.

21662. Tom Curtis at 12:44 PM on 20 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       scaddenp @183, perhaps one piece of the puzzle is that New Zealand, like Australia, has never had a native, large, hooved grazer, the existence of which is the premise of RedBaron's assumptions about what is natural.  Native New Zealand grasses are very unlikely to react to intensive grazing in the same way as those of the US prairie.  Mimicking a native grassland in New Zealand means getting rid of cattle and sheep altogether. 

21663. scaddenp at 12:05 PM on 20 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       Implicit in your statement above is the belief that a native grazed grassland will sequester carbon and at a rate above that of enteric emissions and one that doesnt is somehow wrong. This is clearly not necessarily a given as a naturally changing bioeme can transition from grassland to desert with changing climate. I will agree that a naturally developing soil will sequester carbon but not necessarily at a rate to also cover emissions from grazing animals. Once you increase the herd size to farming level intensities, then it is even less of given. Our native grasslands most certainly do not sequester carbon very quickly and grazing at even low intensities makes matter worse. Is it your bioeme that is abnormal?

       "The trick would be to figure out what piece of the puzzle is missing in that farm." Remember that this is hardly just this farm - maintaining SOC on grazing land here has been puzzle for a very long time with a lot intensive research. Figuring out the puzzle is very much an interesting question. So yes, I am very curious to know what the main species mix is in US native grasslands. Even a C3/C4 ratio would be interesting.

21664. RedBaron at 09:46 AM on 20 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       @scaddenp,

        First off to really get a handle on what I mean by "normal grassland" you must go back to who started the whole MIRG concept. That was Andre' Voisin.

       There have been a whole lot of improvements since then, but that's who really started the scientific method as it applies to rotational grazing.  Or as he called it "rational grazing". And the main principle that flows through all the various forms and versions that have been developed from his work is using a natural biome as a blueprint or framework in designing the artificial agricultural system. In agriculture of course we can select carefully species and genomes of plants and animals to optimise yields and productivity, but always in the back of your mind should be , "How does this mimick a native grassland in terms of ecosystem function?" This way we are much less likely to have failures in ecosystem function like the farm in your case study, regarding either CO2 sequestration and/or methane oxidation. If you get it right, you will observe big increases in yields along side radical reductions in inputs and increasing soil fertility every year (including significant carbon increases). Get it wrong and you might be able to maintain productivity only by increasing inputs.

       The trick would be to figure out what piece of the puzzle is missing in that farm. It could be legumes or other species of forbs. It could be the wrong blend of C3 to C4 grasses. It could be the wrong mix of soil biology whether worms, small arthropods, nematodes, insects and such or microbiology like AMF and/or saprophytic fungi, diazatrophs, methanotrophs, endophytes, other types of bacteria etc... Could be the fertilizer regime. Could be all or none of these. But what we can say for sure, that pasture is not functioning like any native grassland. That we can observe and has been observed in the case study.

       So if it was MY pasture, I would trial various changes with controls and just observe what happens. I would chose those changes based on my understanding of native grasslands which are typically far more productive than planted pastures all else equal. Where that pasture may have one or two species of grass, a native grassland might have 100 or more species of grasses and forbs. Eventually if I get the ecosystem function right, then the genetics should allow me to surpass a native grassland in productivity, because each new species I add will be selected with that in mind.

       Now in USA we typically don't have to do what you need to do there. The great plains region already has a huge dormant seed bank in the soils. The added species just "show up" one day as if by magic when conditions are right. We might add a few here and there, but generally we don't need to build a whole ecosystem from scratch like you Kiwis need to do. Even guys who started this literally on farms so degraded that bedrock was peeking through the surface still generally don't need to seed pastures, or add soil microbes. Some do to speed the process, but most have no need.

21665. Tom Curtis at 09:28 AM on 20 December 2016
       There's no empirical evidence
       

       I will briefly add that, were we to ignore complications and work back to a climate response based on the difference between Venus' and Earth's surface temperatures by the loglinear rule, we would estimate the climate response per doubling of CO2 to be 70^o K.  Obviously too large, for reasons given @317, but certainly not the basis for concluding that CO2 can have no significant effect on global temperatures (the conclusiong Jeff18 is angling for).  The 70^oK figure, like Jeff18's 0.08^oK temperature impact for 25% of current CO2 concentrations on Earth, are both examples of Garbage In, Garbage Out. 

21666. Glenn Tamblyn at 09:27 AM on 20 December 2016
       There's no empirical evidence
       

       Jeff18.
       
       That isn't the way to calculate it.
       
       Here is how the greenhouse effect works.

       1. A planet tends towards being in radiative balance. It has to radiate as much energy as infrared to space as it absorbs from sunlight.
       2. Where this radiation to space originates from is determined by the quantity of GH gases. Where the amount of GH gases in the air column is higher, lower in the atmosphere, the air is optically thick. It is essentially opaque and absorbs virtually all the infrared passing through it. So any IR from below or IR radiated here by the atmosphere can't escape to space. Only at higher altitude, where the air grows thinner does it become possible for IR to start escaping to space. The air becomes optically thin. So all the radiation to space is originating from these higher altitudes, not the surface. GH gas concentrations determine how high this transition to optical thinness occurs at. Then radiative balance drives this altitude to be at the temperature required to achieve balance.
       3. In any atmosphere where vertical air movement occurs, there is a vertical temperature profile called the Lapse Rate. It gets colder as you go up, or conversely warmer as you go down. On Earth this figure is around 6.5 C for every kilometer of height.

       Putting these together, the balance temperature for Earth is-18C. The average altitude where the transition to optical thinness occurs is around 5 km up. So this level in the tmosphere tends towards -18C. Then the Lapse rate warms the air below and cools the air above this altitude. So the surface is at around -18 +(5 * 6.5) = +14.5 C. About right. And the 10 km level is at around -18 -(5 * 6.5) = -50.5 C About right.
       
       Lets do the math for Venus.
       
       With that super dense atmosphere its effective emission altitude is over 50 km up. Its balance temperature is actually lower than the Earth. Although it is closer to the Sun and receives twice as much sunlight, it is far more reflective. Earth reflects around 30% of the sunlight that strikes it and only absorbs 70%. The Bond Albedo of Venus is 0.9 so Venus only absorbs 10% of the sunlight that strikes it so only 2/7ths of what the Earth  absorbs. So its equilibrium temperature is actually more like -85 C
       
       And the Lapse Rate on Venus is around 10.2 C/km. It is this much higher because there is no condensation of water which lowers the Lapse Rate on Venus.
       
       So putting the numbers together -85 + (10.2 * 50+) gives over 425 C - about right.

21667. Tom Curtis at 09:15 AM on 20 December 2016
       There's no empirical evidence
       

       Jeff18 @315, the temperature response to increased CO2 in the atmosphere approximates to a linear increase for each doubling of CO2.  Thus, you will get the same temperature response for increasing the CO2 concentration from 140 ppmv to 280 ppmv (ie, from half the industrial to the industrial concentration) as you would for increasing it from 280 to 560 ppmv.

       Clearly this relationship does not hold across all concentrations of CO2, for if it did, there would be an infinite temperature increase from 0 ppmv to any finite value.  Checking with modtran, the relationship holds from approximately from 16 to 4000 ppmv, ie, the full range of reasonable expectations of past and future CO2 concentrations on Earth - but it is not straighforwardly transferable to the situation on Venus.

        

       Further complicating things, temperature varies with the fourth root of energy, so that a linear increase in forcing (W/m^2) will be associated with a less than linear increase in temperature, particularly when there is not fluid H2O on the planet as with Venus.  Consequently no simple rule of thumb formula will give very accurate results for the effect in changes in CO2 concentration for Venus.  This is important because applying the loglinear (linear increase with each doubling) mentioned by Tristan as a best approximation would lead us to expect a surface temperature on Venus elevated by only 80^oK, which is far to small.  Better results can be obtained by using the formula that surface temperature equals the lapse rate times the effective altitude or radiation to space of IR radiation from the atmosphere, where that altitude is determined by radiation models of Venus' atmosphere.  Better still is the application of the full theory of the greenhouse in the form of climate models, which can predict with reasonable accuracy the actual surface temperature (and have done so since 1980).

       Finally, I suggest you read this post by Chris Colose, and that we conduct any further discussion on this in that thread (where it is on topic).

21668. scaddenp at 07:25 AM on 20 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       "not functioning like a normal grassland" is the core of issue for me. Which set of studies represent "normal". The abstract is maddening low on important detail as you say and will have to wait for full publication, but this study is showing better results than early ones  - it is "abnormal" for here and makes me suspicious that result is due to location and being on degraded soil. You can however safely assume that applied nitrogen will be urea with rates and timing determined from some reasonably sophisicated models, but these are for optimizing production/cost not SOC.

       Comprehensive studies of full GHG emissions (N2O, CH4 and CO2) from pasture plus SOC from MIRG in US have eluded me. Maybe it was in references you have given me already but obviously not in one that I saved.

       Just chatting with a grasslands ecologist who is in my building (not an agricultural scientist however but intrigued by the problem). He has asked if you could point us to a reference for the grass species commonly used in MIRG with good CO2 and CH4 uptake? (especially interested to know whether there are any C4 species involved).

21669. Tristan at 06:14 AM on 20 December 2016
       There's no empirical evidence
       

       Hi Jeff

       The relationship between CO2 and temperature is not linear - it's loglinear. decreasing the atmospherice concentration of CO2 by 1% does not decrease the amount of energy reradiated back to the surface by 1%.

21670. william5331 at 05:29 AM on 20 December 2016
       On climate change, angels and demons are battling over Trump’s soul
       

       DeCaprio has the right approach.  Don't talk to Donald Trump about climate change.  Talk to him about all the job creation from installing and maintaining renewable energy.  Talk to him also about all that wealth flowing to the oil proucing countries that he could use for his works programs.  Point out that this money comes back into the USA to buy up American businesses who then have to pay dividends to the oil barrons.  More money flowing out of America.  Some goes into buying off terrorists who then use the funds to attack America.  Read the man and present the arguments he will understand and appriciate.

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html

21671. william5331 at 04:47 AM on 20 December 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #51
       

       If we are now makeing a strategic retreat and talking about living with climate change rather than (or in addition to) trying to stop it, we need a substitute for Glaciers.  We need something that will hold water during off-growing periods and release the water in the summer.  We need to hold the water on the land in order to recharge water tables rather than letting the water rush down to the sea. It would also be nice to catch silt from poor farming and poor land use and keep it where it will so some good in the future.  If in addition we can improve our ecology, that would be a bonus.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI5AjJd00cM

21672. Jeff18 at 04:13 AM on 20 December 2016
       There's no empirical evidence
       

       I have yet to find the answer to the following problem. Consider the atmosphere of Venus is almost 100% CO2. Not quite, but close enough. The surface temperature is about 800 degrees. Let's ignore for now the fact that Venus is closer to the sun which would make the effect of CO2 less. And also ignore that the atmospheric pressure is much higher than that of Earth. So, 100% CO2 would make the temperature 800 degrees warmer, 1% would make it 8 degrees warmer and .01% would make it .08 degrees warmer. The .01% number is roughly the increase in CO2 over older estimates. Now if we factor in that Venus is much closer to the sun and the atmosphere of Venus contains a whole lot more CO2, the .08 degree number would drop much more. It would seem by this method that the actual effect of CO2 is not large. I have sent this little story to various people and no seems to want to respond. Anyone?

21673. CBDunkerson at 23:50 PM on 19 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       The problem of CO2 emissions >is< going to go away on its own... eventually.

       Indeed, that has always been the case. If nothing else, we will eventually run out of fossil fuels to burn.

       However, that does not mean that we can just kick back and wait for it to happen. Indeed, the whole point is that we need to deal with global warming before it gets to the point that it is self-correcting.

       Coal is obviously on its way out. It will not be a major component of electricity production anywhere in the world "decades" from now. However, how quickly we phase it out, to say nothing of oil and natural gas, is still very important.

21674. RedBaron at 23:00 PM on 19 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       @scaddencamp,

        Still troubling that synthetic fertilizers are used. Particularly nitrogen. I know how harsh that is on soil biology. But seeing as how I don't have a side by side compareson on that farm as a control to compare, it would be difficult to say for certain. I have never seen anyone optimize soil carbon either by the LCP or by methane oxidation where they used any haber process ammonia (NH3) or Ammonium (NH4) at all. Not only is it not needed and in the long run it reduces nitrogen availability, it also is quite harsh on soil biology, particularly earthworms. Considering their function in aerating the soil, it is potentially possible that's the problem. Other forms of nitrogen can have the opposite effect though and the link you presented doesn't say which was used.

       Obviously something is going on with that farm to explain why it is not functioning like a normal grassland. And reading the paper it seems even they were surprised at their own results,

       This is a somewhat puzzling result as the soils are well drained and CH4-producing microbes usually require oxygen-free conditions; however, similar observations have occurred in other intensively managed grasslands, grazed or harvested.

       considering how different they were from plenty of other peoples results on other pastures. But without controlls it is nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly where the problem lies.

       The study I already gave you says this:

       Mineral N applied annually as (NH4)2SO4, at either 96 or 144 kg N ha −1 for 130 years, completely inhibited CH4 oxidation, even where lime was applied to maintain a soil pH of about 6.[1]

       Which could also be an explanation, if that's the version of nitrogen they used.

21675. Chris O'Neill at 21:23 PM on 19 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       "So no Prime Minister, it is unlikely that coal production and use for electricity generation in Australia will last for decades to come – maybe one decade but even that is questionable."

       This is fantastic news. The problem of CO2 emissions is going to go away on its own. No need for Carbon pricing or any type of government intervention to solve the problem. And closer to home, no need for websites like skepticalscience or realclimate to counter the influence of global warming/climate science denialists because there is no need for political action anymore.

       And if you believe that then you've never heard of Pollyanna and her statements reminiscent of the quote above.

21676. scaddenp at 18:06 PM on 19 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       Definitely walked on. This is the normal NZ model of intensive grazing with cows moved on new pastures quickly when food value of grass is at optimum.  It is not generally thought of as factory farming. All the literature you have put out on MIRG look pretty much like the systems used here. The water system drips in fertilizer and effluent from milking shed is also distributed on pasture. Insufficient nitrogen is linked to soil carbon loss. While the full study isnt published yet, I dont believe the stocking rate on the research farm is any higher than normal. 

       

21677. RedBaron at 14:48 PM on 19 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       In that system likely it is not. Do the cows even walk on that so called "pasture"? Or is it more like this?

       Zero Grazing

       Certainly I can see chemical fertilizers are used, which decimate soil biology. I even gave you a link before showing the differences in management and their impacts on methane absobtion and oxidation. 

       Keep in mind, I have always agreed with the scientific consensus that the current industrialised factory farming methods were a net methane emissions source. Nothing new here.

21678. william5331 at 08:39 AM on 19 December 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #51
       

       Low Arctic ice recovery.

       In the fall and early winter is when the first indications of things to come should be apparent and it looks like this year that is what is happening.  You have the mother of all off shore evening winds as the land rapidly cools off while the ocean is a reservoir of heat accumulated in the ever more open water.  The difference is that this offshore wind should continue day and night and be continued as latent hear is released from freezing sea water.  It should suck warmer air from the south to further slow the refreeze.  As this effect gains strength, it should suck air from ever further south until you have a reversed Hadley cell and a two cell system in the northern hemisphere.  With air flowing from the land to the sea Coriolis causes a counter clockwise circulation over the Arctic Ocean which will push a counter clockwise sea circulation.  In such gyres, to the right is away from the centre so ice and the fresher surface layer will be expelled from the  Arctic thinning the layer.  Waves, with their longer fetch working on this thinner layer will mix the salty warmer deep water into the surface, further decreasing ice formation in the winter and thawing in the summer.

21679. scaddenp at 08:05 AM on 19 December 2016
       How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
       

       This one for RedBaron. I've been a noted skeptic of extent to which grazing is good answer, largely because resources you cite are not matched by studies here. Summary of some recent research published here. The location of the study was on mid-Canterbury gravel soils, dryland area, where irrigation has allowed dairy on what was cropping land (so probably pretty degraded soil). This region was grassland when europeans arrived, and probably light open-canopies forest pre Maori (1000 BP) so probably closer to US soils. Rainfall is 24-28" but also subject to strong hot, dry fohn winds so evaporation rates high

       Results are in encouraging for net carbon uptake but note that still not GHG sinks when all factors considered.

21680. Tom Curtis at 19:14 PM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       Paul D @9, the phrase you are looking for is "Trumped up science".

       "trump (v.2) Look up trump at Dictionary.com
       "fabricate, devise," 1690s, from trump "deceive, cheat" (1510s), from Middle English trumpen (late 14c.), from Old French tromper "to deceive," of uncertain origin. Apparently from se tromper de "to mock," from Old French tromper "to blow a trumpet." Brachet explains this as "to play the horn, alluding to quacks and mountebanks, who attracted the public by blowing a horn, and then cheated them into buying ...." The Hindley Old French dictionary has baillier la trompe "blow the trumpet" as "act the fool," and Donkin connects it rather to trombe "waterspout," on the notion of turning (someone) around. Connection with triumph also has been proposed. Related: Trumped; trumping. Trumped up "false, concocted" first recorded 1728."

       Source

21681. Paul D at 19:07 PM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       Daniel@4 re: Trumpery.

       LOL. Wasn't aware of that word.
       
       But Trumpery Science doesn't quite work.

21682. bozzza at 18:39 PM on 18 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       Nuclear is subsidised by defence interests and the Americans won't let us use it. Thus, it has no financial legitimacy to put it one way!

21683. Riduna at 12:14 PM on 18 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       Digby - Quite Right!  Compared with global subsidies for fossil fuel exploration and production ($88 bn/year), Australia pays out a modest $4bn/year, of which some $1.8bn/year goes to coal. 

       This sum does not include the cost of health care for those involved in production and use of coal, the value of water used in the process, or its effects on the environment.  The latter includes global warming of the atmosphere and oceans and all that entails, including damage to coral reefs, the biosphere and food production.

21684. Digby Scorgie at 11:13 AM on 18 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       SingletonEngineer

       Please don't talk about subsidies for renewable energy when fossil-fuel producers are not only subsidized to an enormous extent but also pay nothing for the effects of the poisons they inflict on society and the planet.

21685. nigelj at 11:12 AM on 18 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       SingletonEngineer, the costs of a renewable grid are not astronomically higher than nuclear and are only slightly higher than coal. I base this on an analysis by Forbes, who certainly dont particularly favour renewable energy and the analysis is about 5 years old. And we all know costs of renewables is dropping quite fast.

       www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/15/the-naked-cost-of-energy-stripping-away-financing-and-subsidies/#4ae6e7da2c3c

       
       You also have to consider nuclear energy does carry the possibility of catastrophic risk. At some level this has a "cost" that needs to be considered. Im not totally opposed to nuclear but all factors must be considered.

21686. nigelj at 10:59 AM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       Daniel Mocnsy @5, I largely agree.  Arguments about levels of certainty in science can be twisted around to discredit things to the point it becomes absurd. Of course proof is technically impossible in science and belongs to mathematics, however this is a strict interpretation. Given some elements of theoretical physics are unresolved, we cannot be absolutely 100% certain about anything else, in a technical sense, but its somewhat pedantic.

       For example for all practical purposes we know the world is a type of sphere, and is not flat. The chances we are hallucinating about the world, or living in a "matrix" like that movie are probably one in a trillion trillion. We have to trust our senses, and basic observational evidence, or we are lost and have nothing on which to base decisions.

       Climate science is 95% certain, according to the IPCC.  In any other sphere of life those odds would be considered overwhelming.

       We should also consider all implications. We will run out of fossil fuels anyway, so change is inevitable sooner or later.

21687. nigelj at 10:35 AM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       Daniel Mocnsy @4, Trumpery does indeed mean showy, deception etc. Good point.

       And Donald has the following derivation courtesy of google: "Donald. ... Given Name DONALD. USAGE: Scottish, English. PRONOUNCED: DAHN-əld (English) [key] From the Gaelic name Domhnall which means "ruler of the world", composed of the old Celtic elements dumno "world" and val "rule".

       You also get the term "Mafia Don" which means "Don or godfather, is the highest level in a crime family"

       
       This is all somewhat worrying!

21688. Dcrickett at 08:39 AM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       #2 Paul D: It is a problem that has joined but not replaced the zenophobic fear-and-loathing of classic racism. I married a triracial woman. We and our children (now past the half-century point) have plenty of experience to gainsay the "post-racial society" euphemism.

            By now we have learned how to navigate this aspect of the New World Disorder and get on with life.

            Sadly, we have to cope with new sins while still suffering all the old ones.

21689. Daniel Mocsny at 07:32 AM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       One thing all science deniers appear to have in common with just about everybody else: they all willingly (even greedily) consume the benefits of science every day. What does this say about what science deniers really believe?

       As scientific purists - perhaps influenced by the philosophy of Thomas Kuhn in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, and of Karl Popper in The Logic of Scientific Discovery - we acknowledge the possibility, however remote, that every finding of science is provisional, and at most we can only say it hasn't been falsified yet. This deference plays into the hands of ideologues of every stripe (political, religious, economic) who can dismiss any science they find inconvenient as merely ephemeral and potentially subject to revision. They are then free to present their own uninformed certitudes as eternal and perfect, and themselves as heroic Galileos (albeit without telescopes and new data) defying the establishment.

       But do we really need to hand them that weapon? Is every finding of science merely provisional? We know that scientific revolutions have occurred in the past, and if you pick up a science text from 150 years ago, it sorely needs an update. But we also know that everything that worked then still works today. For example, you can still navigate with a sextant just as well as people did in 1866. All the science that the sextant validated is still valid and will always be valid, insofar as getting the sextant to work.

       Today we have a lot more science; accordingly we can build a lot more things. Consider your computer - a stupendously complex, wonderful, and improbable device. Many scientific discoveries and theories enable it to work. The complete list probably fills a library, when you consider everything that goes into a computer and its entire production chain. No future scientific discovery or breakthrough will ever retroactively stop your computer from working by invalidating any of the science critical to its operation. Some of those enabling theories will probably be refined for precision, or extended to cover new cases, but it would take a miracle to get a working computer from any theory that turns out to be flatly wrong. Much as you are very unlikely to eradicate polio or smallpox without knowing the germ theory of disease. (Imagine a chimpanzee typing out the complete works of Shakespeare - it could happen, but the odds are small.)

       All science is provisional in principle, but that provisionality recedes to the vanishing point for any chunk of science that enables multi-billion-dollar industries. Hard-headed venture capitalists don't wager a king's ransom on science that only might be true. They bet on science you can take to the bank - and there's a lot of that.

       As proponents of science, we need to explain to the masses where their goodies come from, and how those goodies connect to other scientific findings they find inconvenient. For example, how many patrons of the Creation Museum realize the cars they drove there only had fuel because the oil companies of the world flatly reject what the Creation Museum claims? Nobody figures out where to drill for oil by reading the Bible as a literally true historical and scientific document. Each time a Young Earth Creationist (YEC) hops in his/her ride, s/he loudly proclaims by his/her actions that the Bible - read literally as a scientific document - is bunk. But in my experience with talking to YECs (and from having been raised as one), none of them seem aware of how their actions contradict their professed beliefs.

       The scientific method and our stockpile of theories give us wondrously improbable things such as computers, aircraft carriers, eradication of various diseases, a doubled life expectancy, and pretty much everything that makes life in the USA today preferable to life in pre-Columbian America. (We always have the option of going back to the Stone Age with its nasty, brutish, and short lifestyle, but who does by choice?)

       Therefore, a question worth exploring, and explaining to the masses, is: how likely is the same science that gives us computers, etc., to be completely wrong about man-made climate change? Or worded differently, if the hugely interdisciplinary field of climate science could be so far off the rails, after decades of work and thousands of published studies, then how does your computer still work? How could science be so spectacularly bad for so long in one area, and so spectacularly good in another? For starters, there's a huge amount of overlap. Anyone who builds computers for a living can readily learn to do climate science, and conversely, just by reading a few dozen books. Climate scientists use many of the same theories that your computer proves are true (or all but true). The two groups use the same basic approach of formulating hypotheses and testing them. The same science academies represent them. An attack on one group is an attack on the other.

       It might be possible to show that if climate science could be as wrong as the climate science deniers claim it is, then your computer actually would have to stop working. That would be a handy result, if anyone feels motivated to catalog all the scientific links between them.

21690. Daniel Mocsny at 06:17 AM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       But instead of Aryan Physics, it looks like America is heading for Trumponian Science.

       It turns out the dictionary already contains the word "Trumpery" which means:

       1. n. Showy but worthless finery; bric-a-brac.
       2. n. Nonsense; rubbish.
       3. n. Deception; trickery; fraud.
21691. william5331 at 03:51 AM on 18 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       Just one wee niggle.  None of this is new with the advent of the Trump administration but perhaps he has catalyzed the mobilization of scientists to become activists.  Perhaps this will become a more general movement in fields other than science.  In which case, the Trump administration could be the turning point in which 99% of the whole community says I'm not going to take it any more. 

21692. PluviAL at 02:41 AM on 18 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       Riduna, this is a big thumbs up for me because I like to see solutions. We can do this, and sincere deniers will embrace the challenge, once potential and viable solutions are apparent, then we can be on our way to managing the planet positively, not destructively. The concentrating of human civilization into cities seems to be well on its way; sprawl is one of the biggest causes of our load on the planet, so we are solving the problem on two big fronts. We can do it, the more we focus on solutions the faster our success will materialize.

21693. Paul D at 23:13 PM on 17 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       

       https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-2-pro-nazi-nobelists-attacked-einstein-s-jewish-science-excerpt1/
       
       There are IMO parallels with 1930s Germany. But instead of Aryan Physics, it looks like America is heading for Trumponian Science.

       These days you don't have to burn books, you just wipe a data store clean. The Scientific American article above is well worth reading. Today the 1920s/30s racial tones of the battle is now replaced with one of economic and political ideology.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Fixed link. Please learn to do this yourself with the link button in the comments editor

21694. michael sweet at 22:22 PM on 17 December 2016
       Welcome to Skeptical Science
       

       Redfa:

       Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

       According to this NPR Article, about 634 million people live within 10 meters of sea level.  If you imagine their population would otherwise rise, how many would be "killed" by sea level rise of 10 meters over say 300 years?  About 11 million people are within 2 meters of sea level in Forida (not to mention the rest of the USA) and might lose their cities by 2100.  

       From Florida they can all move to Kansas, but the 17 million in Bangladesh displaced by 1.5 meters of rise have no-where to go.  Perhaps they can also go to Kansas, although I doubt Trump would think that is a good idea.  More likely it will go the Syria route and they will be killed in war.

       For RCP 8.5 in 2013 experts thought sea level rise of 1-2 meters by 2100 could be expected (Real climate post), IPCC projections are less.  Since then expectations of sea level rise have gone up (they always go up with time).  The best farmland in the world is often in river deltas that will be the first to go with sea level rise.  Speculations of new farm land in Alaska are unrealistic.  How will populaitons be fed after the farmland is under the sea? The problems with heat Tom points out are in addition.  

       While your 3-5 billion is probably a worst case (over what time period was that?  Do wars caused by climate change count?) a realistic evaluation of 50 years from now with BAU does not look pleasant.  Since the deaths are additive, over 200 years 3-5 billion is not so high.  

       The high end danger is collapse of civilization.  That is not considered a likely risk but if there is a 1% chance it would mean the human population could drop to less than one billion.  How much risk can you tolerate?  If there was a 1% chance your house would burn down would you take action to lower the risk?  I would.  What if the action reduced pollution and made us all healthier?

21695. Tom Curtis at 11:36 AM on 17 December 2016
       Welcome to Skeptical Science
       

       Redfa1 @40, if we burnt nearly all available reserves of fossil fuels, or if climate sensitivity is towards the high end of the estimated range, an increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) of 10 to 12 degrees is likely.  With such an increase, for significant parts of the year hotter weather patterns will lift the wet bulb temperature above 35^oC.  If that happens for about six hours of the day, all large mammals that cannot find refuge in water or airconditioning will die.  That includes humans.  Smaller mammals (which have more efficient cooling and higher basal temperatures) and cold blooded animals will survive to higher temperatures.  The following map shows in mauve the areas likely to experience those sorts of temperaratures regularly at least durring the local summer months:

       

       In those circumstances, those areas would have to be evacuated durring summer of nearly all humans, along with their live stock and domestic pets every summer.  In the yellow areas heat fatalaties would be common but not ubiquitous.  When you consider the areas involved (all of India, large portions of China, the Eastern Seaboard of the USA, Spain) the economic impact of this circumstance would be extreme, and the shere number of environmental refugees created could well overwhelm our capacity to deal with.  It is plausible that such a circumstance, therefore, could so overwhelm the economic system as to cause an almost complete breakdown of the system of trade.  That in turn would result in the effective technological levels of our economy plummiting, along with our capacity to provide food for the population.  So, in this scenario our civilization (ie, the technological trade based society that dominates the world) would likely collapse, and with it several billion people would die.

       Let me emphasize this is not the only climate based stressor that could result in that outcome.  There are several others which could, in themselves cause an effective collapse of trade; and all of these will be acting concurrently so that their combined effect is even more likely to do so.  Further, lack of food or stress from an excess of refugees could well cause instigation of large scale, potentially nuclear wars.

       So, in short, those estimates do have some truth in them, but as worse case scenarios in situations in which we do not take effective action against global warming.  Even the inadequate methods agreed to todate would likely prevent such outcomes.  If such measures are significantly wound back, as is likely under President Trump, the more extreme scenarios come back into play.

       Finally, it should be noted that any scenario involving the death of multiple billions will most likely result from a situation where we destroy ourselves (through inadequate responses to crises, or through war) rather than changes in climate itself directly killing us (although that may well result in the deaths of tens, or even hundreds of millions with inadequate mitigation and adaption).

21696. Redfa1 at 10:17 AM on 17 December 2016
       Welcome to Skeptical Science
       

       Hi,

       I've been trying to understand more about climate change, as well as the impacts it will have on the planet. I feel like I reasonably understand, but I do have concern over the future predictions. I know that they are not certain, but I have seen claims that "3-5 billion people will die" or of "imment collapse of civilization". Are these sensationalised, or do they have some truth to them?

       Thanks.

21697. SingletonEngineer at 08:48 AM on 17 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       Typo: interconnector cost should read "say, $3 to $4 billion US."

21698. SingletonEngineer at 08:45 AM on 17 December 2016
       Why Coal Is Not Our Future
       

       Do the maths. 

       The cost of utility-scale batteries is huge, whether expressed in dollar terms or resource utilisation numbers.

       The costs of gas fired generation to support wind and solar when the wind isn't blowing or the sun isn't shining is huge also - again both in dollars and in gas consumption and hence CO2 and CH4 emissions.

       The cost of additional HV interconnectors necessary to push the electricity from where it able to be generated to where it is needed is also directly a consequence of and thus the responsibility of the wind farms and their locations.

       If you aren't already convinced about the cost of interconnectors, consider recent South Australian experience, which is directly attributed to the loss of supply for a whole state after weather caused the loss of almost 40% of its (wind) generating capacity and thus overloaded the Heywood Interconnector, which tripped.  Current recommendations are that additional interconnectors be constructed to duplicate existing ones between SA and NSW/Vic; Vic and Tas; and NSW/Qld. The cost?  Estimated $4B to $5B Australian (say 3 to 3 billion US).

       More maths: Why subsidise wind to the point where its proponents then say that it is "cheaper"?  Subsidy: $90/MWh (LRET).  Wholesale market prices: $40/MWh and upwards.

       
       The winners are the non-Australian manufacturers of wind turbines, etc and those who (again, not Australian, in the main) own and operate fossil fuelled, polluting gas turbines that are essential to the scam/scheme.

       Yet we are forbidden by law from considering nuclear power on its own merits.

       Sheesh!

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Just raising some flags before this discussion goes completely off the rails:

       Firstly, please cite the sources of numbers so others can verify your mathematics should they wish. Unsupported arguments are simply sloganeering.

       Secondly, any further responses on nuclear should be restricted to cost analysis. Those wishing to debate the larger pros and cons of nuclear power should do so over at BraveNewClimate not here.

21699. Tom Curtis at 08:23 AM on 17 December 2016
       Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
       

       michael sweet @84, fish are tricky.  

       Unlike the case with land animals, where we eat herbivores, humans preferentially eat large, predator fish.  The consequence is that while we fish down stocks of our preferred fish, the resulting lack of predators allows an increase in the number of prey fish.  This 2014 study indicates that we have reduced the biomass of predator fish by 66.4 (60.2-71.2)% over the last 100 years, with most of that occuring in the last 40 years.  Over the same time, however, the biomass of prey fish have increased by 130%, ie, more than doubled.  Given the trophic pyramid, the biomass of prey fish in the undisturbed state was likely 10 times that of the predator fish, giving a net change in biomass of 0.9*2.3 + 0.1*0.34 = 2.1, so that overall fish biomass may have approximately doubled.

       Of course, the increase in prey fish will also have resulted in a decrease in the biomass of their prey, ie, plankton.  That is difficult to estimate, however, because:

       1)  The population of prey fish were initially predator limited so that the biomass of planckton would not have been approximately 10 times that of the prey fish as according to the standard trophic pyramid; and

       2)  The prey fish often fed on zooplanckton which fed on phytoplanckton; and to the extent that is the case phytoplanckton would have become more numerous, possibly resulting in an overall increase in ocean biomass.

       To further complicate things, a recent study has suggested that fish numbers in the middle layer of the ocean (mesopelagic fish) have been underestimated.  As mesopelagic fish have not been primary catches in global fisheries until recently, the numbers quoted above may be overestimates by an order of magnitude.  

21700. nigelj at 07:46 AM on 17 December 2016
       This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
       
       I applaud scientists participating in this rally. This is a situation where science itself is under attack. Scientists are perfectly entitled to protect their interests, and I would expect nothing less.
       
       We all know normally scientists wisely generally keep a low profile, and keep out of government policy debates. However we are not in that normal situation.
       
       If you dont stand up to bullies they walk all over you. The Trump world view ammounts to bullying. It has a silver gloss on it, but underneath its bullying and intimidation.

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