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Comments 21801 to 21850:

21801. john warner at 02:48 AM on 10 December 2016
       There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
       

       Nigelj @ 28 I appreciate the opportunity to explain the design of my linear regression.There are scientific concerns and statistical concerns. When there are known laws of physics you don’t have to use statistical analysis to generate coefficients for calculating the effect of carbon dioxide on air temperature. But in order to calculate the effect that air temperature has on the quantity of carbon dioxide in the air we do. We know that colder water absorbs carbon dioxide at a faster rate than hotter water. Assuming that water temperature and air temperature annually globally vary together we can model that if air temperature goes down the water temperature will go down also and absorb more carbon dioxide. If that assumption is wrong the regression coefficient will tell us with a change of sign. I assume that all of the gross increase in carbon dioxide emissions each year comes from humans burning fossil fuels and other organic material. Since more than average carbon dioxide is being absorbed we think the net growth in carbon dioxide left in the air will be decreased. On the other hand if the air temperature is higher than normal we assume that the water temperature will be higher and that less carbon dioxide will be absorbed. Then the annual growth in carbon dioxide in the air will be larger. To be scientifically correct we have to model changes in the magnitude of the annual increase of carbon dioxide as a function of the air temperature. This makes carbon dioxide the dependent variable and air temperature the independent variable. If we use anomalies as the measure of temperature around the 1981 to 2010 baseline, on the graph of the regression results 0.0 on the x axis will also represent when the anomaly is 0.0. The statistical consideration is that when dealing with time series data and the quantities are autocorrelated the scatter of plots is not a random sample. This problem was avoided by modeling dC for carbon dioxide and anomalies for temperature. Also when it is obvious the variables are correlated with a third variable time you have a multicolinearity problem. Modeling dC and T anomalies avoids this problem also. If you graph the regression, the sloping line wii intersect the y axis at 1.7. This means when the anomaly is 0.0oK the carbon dioxide growth is 1.7ppm/yr. If the temperature anomaly is higher the carbon dioxide growth rate is higher. If the temperature is lower the growth rate is lower. 58% of the variation in the growth rate per year of carbon dioxide is explained by the earth’s air temperature. Between 1979 and 2011 the mean growth was 1.7ppm per year. The regression coefficient says if the air temperature goes up 1.0oK the growth rate of carbon dioxide will go up 1.94ppm/yr for a total of 3.64ppm/yr.

       I took time away from my mission because I wanted to prove that I know my science by evaluating Tom Curtis’s carbon dioxide sensitivity coefficient linear regression. I want to tie things up on this subject. Tom Curtis said the GMST is a proxy for air temperature. 70% of GMST temperatures are ship log sea surface temperature. We already know ocean temperature is the primary determinant of carbon dioxide absorption. From a practical point the variation in the data for Tom’s dependent variable comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures. On the independent variable, carbon dioxide radiative forcing is a close derivative of the change in carbon dioxide per year. In essence, regardless of the labels he put on the variables he was regressing sea surface temperatures against the change in carbon dioxide per year. The order of causation is wrong but the attained R2 is the same.

21802. RedBaron at 02:45 AM on 10 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       BilB,

       About 22.3 million hectares are planted annually to commercial grain crops across Australia.[1] At the rate Ms Jones measured in her pasture cropping case studies of 5-20 tCO2/ha/yr that equates to between 111.5 to 446 Mt CO2/yr. Australia emitted 549.3 Mt CO2 in 2014. So just pasture cropping alone could offset between 20% and 80% of Australia's CO2 emissions before we even begin to discuss other agricultural areas. That land was already cleared long ago, and the soils already degraded long ago.

       As for the rest of your post regarding livestock grazing alone, a far larger land area, what are you refering to? Livestock? or properly managed livestock?

       @Fergus Brown,

       You asked "where does this lead us?". I have made a rough white paper on another thread here: That's just my idea. I highly suspect there are others who could flesh it out better, or suggest other ways forward.

21803. sailingfree at 02:15 AM on 10 December 2016
       Models are unreliable
       

       Spencer now shows Cornbelt data, and "42 CMIP5 models.

       http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Corn-belt-temp-JJA-thru-2016-vs-42-CMIP5-models-1.jpg

       He implies that the CMIP5 projections are for the cornbelt.

       Is this true?

       (In my local newspaper I clash with Joe D'Aleo's misiformation, can use help.)

21804. bcpierce14059 at 01:56 AM on 10 December 2016
       Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters
       

       Related to the previous question: The paper cites "Two separate studies [that] found that the 2013 extreme heat in Australia would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change."  Is there a good compendium of other very high confidence associations like this?

21805. Jonbo69 at 00:48 AM on 10 December 2016
       Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters
       

       nigelj

       Thanks. I ended up doing a bit more research anyway and found the journal the paper was published in to be extremely dodgy, plus i took a closer looke at the references which included A. Watt, Roger Peike Junior, the GWPF etc. That aside, are there any up-to-date papers on the subject of extreme weather that are worth referencing?

21806. Fergus Brown at 22:06 PM on 9 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       RB, Excuse the density. In Lal, 2008 I see: "Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands."

       As you point out, all of these practices matter for the sake of the soil, but in terms of C sequestration WRT climate, they all amount to LULCC practices. So what is new? There doesn't seem to be anything controversial in any of the ideas proposed, but the mechanisms require actions which are already seen as being desirable, so where does this lead us?

21807. BilB at 20:29 PM on 9 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Well, Red Baron, from my read of Christine Jones' article the humification process is fostered with, amoung other things, composted material. I don't doubt the science at all, some of this science is covered in a very interesting read "the hidden Life of Trees", what I do doubt is the scale and reliability of the process en masse. The soil works the way it works because that is what the conditions allow. Christine Jones makes the sweeping claim that 60% of Australia's land area is used for food production, but that is a flawed claim as most of that land area is sparcely utilised by livestock and in no way ever travelled over by humans let alone intensively farmed in the way to promote the soil changes proposed. 

       The other problem I have with this approach is that you only get to store carbon in this intensive farming way after you've cleared away the 100 to 640 carbon tonnes of bush land vegetation that was there in the first place, so improving the soil carbon is really a restorative process rather than the creation of new carbon storage capacity. Yes it is a good thing to do, but it is really two steps back for one step forward, and having decided to clear land for farming improving soil carbon sequestration in this way should be a high priority, for all of the reasons you have mentioned.

21808. RedBaron at 17:35 PM on 9 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       BilB,

       Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) do not decompose compost. You are confused between AMF and Saprophytic fungi. So pretty much everything you wrote applies to something completely different. Furthermore, every example I gave in this and many other posts all went to this form of agriculture not to save the planet by sequestering carbon, but rather because they were backed into a corner and needed to find a more profitable way to farm or lose the farm. Every one. So that part of your analysis is completely wrong too. In fact the reason it is catching on and spreading so rapidly is that soil degradation is a more emmediate threat for many farmers than AGW. Turns out that there is more carbon missing from our soils than extra in the atmosphere. But your analysis is completely backwards because you don't understand the soil or the carbon cycle in the soil.

21809. BilB at 15:16 PM on 9 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       RedBaron

       The first problem with the soil carbon theory is that It requires an intensity of effort and a quantity of compostible biomass far greater than that available in our dry land. 

       The second problem is that it is sequestering carbon, as also does the ocean cycle, in a way that makes this carbon permanently unavailable for human civilization to use in the future hundreds and thousands of years.

       We are so hooked on the notion that there is abundant carbon and forever, not true. The Earth has been bleeding carbon off into space for billions of years, and it was only by chance that algal life set to work capturing carbon from the primative atmosphere and sequestering it in the form of coal, oil gas, and clathrates, forms of concentrated carbon that can be collected fairly easily by civilization. All along the way atmospheric CO2 has been reducing due to the bleed off and dispersion throughout the Earth's surface to the point where it is a trace gas at a level that still sustains life. Atmospheric CO2 in the natural cycle is topped up from the plate techtonic volcanic cycle as subducting plates boil off CO2 as rock moves into the mantle so we are not going to run out of atmospheric CO2 any time soon, but what we are at risk of running out of is readily available condensed Carbon, Carbon which our civilization would not function without, and I am not referring to carbon as fuel here.

       So while you are wishing away our Carbon into the soil and oceans so that inefficient fossil fuel entrepreneurs can be rich for a century more be aware that at the end of the road there is neither enough carbon to build our technology, nor the carbon as fuel to process it. 

       I am 100% certain that the notion that "soil sequestration can absorb Australia's CO2 emissions" will not stand up to quantified scrutiny. It is a total false assumption that farmers who operate on a commercial razors edge will somehow have the extra resource to collect all of their biomass, compost it, and disperse it over any significant percentage of Australian lands under appropriate conditions in order to promote the growth of different soil fungi with subsequent CO2 sequestration. Most of Australia's land does not produce enough biomass to even begin to activate such a plan. The only thing I agree with you on, is that methane form cows is a bloated argument in my opinion. 

        

       The only poath forward for our civilisation is to agressively develop and implement sustainable and renewable technologies in order to reduce the rate of extraction of fossil carbon to both reduce atmospheric CO2, and preserve as much readily available carbon for the continuity of our civilisation. 

       Every single Australian is currently consuming a continuous 7 kilowatts of energy 24/7/365. That is a staggering energy consumption and all of that comes from fossil fuels. That is the equivalent of burning .75 litres of petrol every hour continuously. And that does not include the energy content of the goods Australia imports.

21810. Tom Dayton at 15:04 PM on 9 December 2016
       Climate's changed before
       

       shelleyratcliffe: (1) The increased insulation by greenhouse gasses, of the stratosphere from the energy radiating from the surface. (2) Greenhouse gasses gather energy and radiate energy. In the lower atmosphere, there are more greenhouse gas molecules above those, to absorb those photons being radiated, and most of that absorbed energy is transferred to other molecules (greenhouse and not). But at the top of the atmosphere, there are few molecules to absorb that energy, so that radiated energy vanishes to space.

21811. shelleyratcliffe at 13:44 PM on 9 December 2016
       Climate's changed before
       

       Apologies if this is a dumb question, but you say that the cooling of the upper atmosphere is a fingerprint of human-caused global warming. Why?

       Moderator Response:

       [PS[ This has nothing to do with past climate. Could follow ups please go to either Fingerprints of AGW or better still Stratospheric cooling. Not a dumb question though  - it is a complicated things to get your head around.

21812. nigelj at 11:39 AM on 9 December 2016
       Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters
       

       Jonbo69 @3, I had a very quick read of the paper. He claims weather has if anything got less extreme globally over the last 50 years. His paper is a massive cherry picking of very selective weather events, and a couple of selective countries that happen to suit his case.

       He also takes a reduction in flood costs in America to mean less floods when this may obviously not be the case. The paper is complete rubbish.

21813. Wol at 10:50 AM on 9 December 2016
       Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing
       

       It won't be news to many on this site but the videos of potholer54 are very pertinent as well as being amusing.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Link added (for those living in caves)

21814. Digby Scorgie at 10:33 AM on 9 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       nigelj @16

       I seem to remember you live in New Zealand. So have a look at the Listener magazine for 19-25 November — it has an article on pasture cropping that is relevant.

       RedBaron @13

       I haven't forgotten my study of the links you gave me earlier to do with the aforementioned topic — an unexpected sojourn in hospital got in the way, but I hope to resume soon.

21815. Jonbo69 at 08:55 AM on 9 December 2016
       Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters
       

       I've just come across someone touting this paper "Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice" Kelly MJ*
       Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, 9 JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FA, UK

       Any critiques or rebuttals?

21816. nigelj at 08:40 AM on 9 December 2016
       Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters
       

       Climate change does indeed have wide implications, and perhaps these are hard for some people to assimilate as they are complex and longer term. But we have to try, because climate change is an issue best addressed now and not left to some desperate and high risk geoengineering solution.

       Renewable energy is inevitable anyway because fossil fuels are a finite resource, so we might as well start making the transition now. We need to get people to see climate change is just bringing the inevitable forwards, and this transition is inevitable. We need to get people to see the change in a positive light, and then things will take off.

21817. Daniel Mocsny at 08:26 AM on 9 December 2016
       Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing
       

       I'm probably just a few days away from reaching the one million milestone for total computing credit with Climateprediction.net. My total credit stands at 997,353 now. My recent average credit is a little over 1,000/day. So, maybe I'll get there in three days unless Trump finds a way to outlaw climate science before he takes office.

       Since Climateprediction.net sometimes runs out of tasks to distribute, I also donate computer time to World Community Grid, which always maintains a backlog of tasks. WCG supports a variety of volunteer computing projects, all of them socially useful in some way (disease prevention, developing renewable energy, etc.).

       I run BOINC on my little notebook computer, which consumes around 20W or less. In the cold months I harvest the waste heat by having the computer on a stand inside my homemade thermal shelter. (With the computer plus my ~100W of body heat, the inside temperature of the shelter reaches around 25°F-30°F above my surrounding house temperature, enabling me to comfortably get through most southern Ohio winters without heating my house much. I only have to run the heat briefly on occasion when we get cold enough weather to freeze my pipes. Thanks to global warming that seems to be happening less often. But we might get close next week.)

21818. geise at 07:11 AM on 9 December 2016
       The History of Climate Science
       

       I suggest adding the contribution of Eunice Foote to climate science.  On August 23, 1856, Eunice presented a paper at the Eighth Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science explaining her experiments that demonstrated the effects of the sun on various gases and theorized that those gases could lead to a gradual warming of the earth's atmosphere.  She found (surprise, surprise) that, of the gasses she tested, CO2 trapped the most heat.  See http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/lady-scientist-helped-revolutionize-climate-science-didnt-get-credit-180961291/.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Fixex link

21819. JWRebel at 07:03 AM on 9 December 2016
       Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters
       

       The communication suggestions at the end of the article cited are actually very good. (For those who want to skip the long read and get to the suggestions at the end.) The challenge, however, is immense: Explaining how uncommonly frigid air is linked to climate change; Explaining how a 0.2° C trend can be significant in locations where the weather jumps 24° from one day to the next; Explaining that effects that will happen hundreds of years into the future demand urgent attention now (I live below sea level!); And attribution studies that references probability — even with topics like public works it is hard to convince people not to spend $1 million on an intersection where an accident has in fact occurred and to rather spend it on general measures for the other 1000 intersections which are equally vulnerable. Action demanded by climate change by its nature conspires against the instinctual prejudices of the human mind.

       I remain nevertheless convinced that even well-intentioned conservatives can be turned into allies for action against climate change once one is able to trigger their loyalty instincts for the preservation of the things they care about.

21820. nigelj at 06:18 AM on 9 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Red Baron @13, thanks. I did think both processes were operating in tandem, hence my comment on which one you thought would be dominant. Looks like its carbon storage. Maybe you should write a  research paper or article on it, as you are passionate about it.

       Seems like soil carbon storage is proof at least a few negative feedbacks could be reinforced, but the problem is it would be a long term project and would require changes in farming techniques and I dont see that happening too fast. It seems hard enough persuading the world to reduce emissions. However I suppose every effort helps.

       Another negative feedback is the forces that ultimately generate ice age cycles by reducing solar irradiation patterns on the earth. However the only way of reinforcing that would be geoengineering, and it would be very high risk.

       We come back to carbon emissions as the main thing that can be realistically tackled in a practical sense. But the "politics" of the whole thing are the hard part.

21821. john warner at 02:23 AM on 9 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       To all between 26 and 33 two corrections: I used UAH Mid Troposphere. I think channel 4 was down in 1912 when I sent this to Dan Lashof at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
       There is a typo I need corrected at line 16 for john warner @22 Change, did conform, to did not conform.
       My source for the earth’s average annual global surface air temperature of 281.92oK, is NASA 2010 CERES Earth Energy Budget. Notice absorbed by atmosphere is 358.2wpsm. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law Calculator yields an average annual global surface air temperature of 281.92^oK.

       https://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/pdf/Energy_Budget_Litho_10year.pdf

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] You have been responded to on the appropriate thread. Do as directed. No further offtopic comment is being permitted here.

21822. atthehelm at 23:10 PM on 8 December 2016
       They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
       

       Did the change in nomenclature occur when ice core samples were more closely looked at (50 years of scientific endevour hardly says mastery to me http://www.clim-past.net/9/2525/2013/cp-9-2525-2013.pdf)? Why did climategate  get swept under the rug? The real reason you have skeptics is due to those emails regardless of how they were dismissed- which I'm sure is part of another topic and I'll be chastised for bringing it up here- scoff- guffaw- also there is the interesting bit about where the temperatures are being read from- as we all know, concrete creates and stores heat so placing a reading site in the city where thirty years ago temp readings were done atop grassy plains will skew the data-https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxnews.com/science/2013/08/13/weather-station-closures-flaws-in-temperature-record.amp.html?client=safari - just a skeptic of all things derived by humans- especially when the "solve" is taxation and doesn't focus on the real elephant in the room- toxic waste. Nuclear wastE. medical waste. We don't dare touch those as the united corps of greed would report less profit that quarter. And don't get me started on DU chemical weapons and the MIC-  I digress. Appogies for any errs as I typed this on my phone

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Sloganeering.

       [PS]

       Thank you for taking the time to share with us.  Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself.  Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.

       Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

       Besides sloganeering, you also went for gish-gallop and offtopic. Use the search function or arguments buttons at the top to find appropriate places to comment but read the article first. Repeating long-debunked slogans because you havent got better informed is welcome at say WUWT but not here.

        

21823. sailingfree at 22:32 PM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       me@11

       Not negative per the Middlebrook email. I am not referring to Red Barron's very interesting possibility.

21824. sailingfree at 22:23 PM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Eager Jim@11, me @7

       Thanks. So no negative feedback afterall.

21825. Andy Skuce at 18:32 PM on 8 December 2016
       Justin Trudeau approves two big oil sands pipeline expansions
       

       Saxifrage does breakdown the emissions from the projects as upstream (in Canada) and downstream (overseas in the case of export projects). So you can easily factor out the downstream emissions if you are just trying to calculate the Canadian emissions.

       Promoters of LNG projects like to refer to incremental downstream emissions, because if gas replaces coal, the incremental emissions would be net negative. The implication is that net negative downstream emissions can be credited to Canada, whereas net positive emissions in export markets should not be.

       A quibble with Saxifrage's calculation is that he basically assumes that all of the upstream emissions made to fill the pipeline will be new emissions that wouldn't have happened had the pipeline not been built. That could be true, but is not necessarily so. The counterfactual assumptions are not straightforward and are debatable.

       I heard Premier Notley in a radio interview the other day claiming that no pipeline would increase emissions because the growth in oil sands production will happen, pipelines or not. This strains credulity, particularly because she also claims that pipelines will add thousands of new long term jobs. You just can't claim both. I'm planning a post on my blog covering this and other stretchings of reality.

       In other news, Notley has agreed to debate Andrew Weaver on television. That should be interesting. Weaver has been very scathing lately about Alberta's Climate Leadership Plan. If I find out when this debate will happen, I will comment here.

21826. MarkRagnar at 16:13 PM on 8 December 2016
       Justin Trudeau approves two big oil sands pipeline expansions
       

       I have a quible with analyses like Saxifrage's: he counts the cost of burning Oil Sands oil, when most is destined for the export market.  Gasoline imported from the middle east and burned in Canadian cars counts towards Canadian emissions.  Nature doesn't care where the CO2 comes from, but counting fuel burned in export markets leads to double counting.  
       
       I echo Magma's sentiment, particularly with respect to  the Pacific NW LNG project.
       The analysis also doesn't relate the pipelines to each other; if all were to be approved, it would effect the capacity used of other pipelines.  I cannot tell if these estimates account for the displacement of oil that would not be shipped via rail or truck if the pipelines were not built.
       
       It should also be noted that Alberta government has also pledged a (admittedly ludicrously high) "legislated emissions limit on the oil sands of a maximum of 100Mt in any year with provisions for cogeneration and new upgrading capacity."
       
       Tombe has stated that a ~$130/tonne price will be necessary; $50 is the Trudeau goverment's 2020 target.

21827. Tom Curtis at 11:01 AM on 8 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       For completeness, I have analysed the relationship between CO2 forcing and the UAH TLT v6 beta5 elsewhere.

       Further, with the moderators indulgence, I will respond to john warner's request that, "You might also tell the moderatorer you have never received a more thoughtful, intelligent, knowledgeable, insightful response."

       Frankly, I would have used none of those adjectives in describing john warner's contribution to this debate.  Rather, his analysis has been poor, relied too heavilly on cherry picked sources; and his discussion has been non-responsive and marked mostly by failure to acknowledge contrary evidence.  Finally, his reasoning has been masked by his composition, which as previously remarked, resembles word salad.  I find it difficult to believe clear logical thought underlies such poorly expressed arguments.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Thank you for cooperation in putting your response to an appropriate thread.

21828. Tom Curtis at 10:54 AM on 8 December 2016
       There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
       

       Elsewhere, I have noted that:

        "Using the Law Dome combined CO2 data plus the BEST Land Ocean Temperature Index over the period of their overlap (1850-2013), we find a correlation between CO2 forcing (calculated as 5.35 x ln(CO2current/CO2initial)) of 0.900, an R-squared of 0.811, with a linear regression of 0.58 +/- 0.044 C/(W/m^2).  ... Using just the raw Law Dome data (with no Cape Grim), however, we achieve a correlation of 0.711, and R-squared of 0.505, and a regression of 0.59 +/- 0.164 C/(W/m^2). Using forcings calculated from the Mauna Loa montly values from March 1958 to July 2016, the correlation is 0.854, the R-squared is 0.729, and the linear regression is 0.62 +/- 0.28 C/(W/m^2)."

       My respondent, like victorag above, refused to accept the mathematical results based on their eyeballing of the timeseries of the CO2 concentration data plotted alongside the temperature data.  They also insisted that the UAH TLT v6 was, despite being still in beta, the "gold standard of temperature records", a claim in stark contradiction to the evidence.  Despite this, I thought it would be instructive to run the regressions over the UAH TLT v6 beta 5 vs the Mauna Loa monthly data.  Before doing so, I converted the Mauna Loa data to anomaly values, both to eliminate the seasonal cycle and because the UAH data was also in anomaly values (and hence without a seasonal cycle).

       Regressing temperature against CO2 forcing, we obtain a result of 0.43 +/- 0.06 C/(W/m^2) with a correlation of 0.556 and an R-squared of 0.309.  That regressed value indicates a transient climate response of 1.59 +/- 0.22 C per doubling of CO2, a value well within error of the 2.29 +/- 1 C per doubling of CO2 from the Mauna Loa data (the highest value obtained).  The shorter time span and greater perturbation of the satellite record by ENSO fluctuations, however, does reduce the proportion of the variation explained by the change in CO2 concentration (as shown by the smaller R-squared).

       AGW deniers typically argue, in the face of this sort of data, that the correlation is a function of the temperature impact on the CO2 concentration, or growth in the CO2 concentration - ie, that the analysis has causation reversed.  However, regressing CO2 concentration against temperature gives results of 49 +/- 7 ppmv/^oC (Correlation: 0.552; R-squared: 0.305).  On the surface, and given the trend increase of 0.41^oC over the period analyzed, that would mean temperature accounts for just 19.9 ppmv of the trend 64.6 ppmv increase in CO2 concentration over that period.  In contrast, based on the regression, CO2 forcing accounts for 0.404 of the 0.405^oC trend temperature increase.  In short, temperature explains CO2 concentration far worse than CO2 forcing explains temperature.  It is likely that apparent forcing of CO2 concentration by temperature shown by the regression is an artifact of CO2 forcing causing the increase in temperature, particularly given that it is at least twice the value shown in other situations where we know change in temperature drives the increase in CO2, such as durring the glacial/interglacial cycle.

       dCO2 concentration is even worse, showing a regression of 0.06 +/- 0.18 ppmv/^oC (Correlation: 0.03; R-squared: 0.001).  That is, the values are neither correlated, nor stastically significant, although it is possible better results might be obtained with suitably lagged values.

       In summary, the evidence remains that there is a strong correlation between CO2 and/or CO2 forcing and temperature, and that correlation is primarilly driven by changes in CO2 concentration driving changes in the Earth's GMST.

21829. RedBaron at 09:34 AM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Your confusion results from not clearly defining the carbon in the soils. Actually both are correct even though they may seem contradictory. The simple answer is this. There are two completely different biochemical pathways. The first we will call "labile carbon". This is the carbon resulting from the decay of organic plant and animal debris in the top O-horizon and the upper layers of the A-horizon of the soil. Bacteria, fungi, small arthropods, worms etc... do decay that material more rapidly as temperatures warm. This carbon mostly ends back into atmosphere as CO2, or CH4 in anaerobic conditions. The Roth C mathematical model is pretty effective at determining the tiny % that gets stored long term into the soil this way. It isn't much. This whole process therefore is considered a reinforcing feedback, rather than a stabilizing feedback.
       The newly discovered LCP feeds an entirely different soil carbon pool which we can call the "stable carbon" fraction of the soil carbon pool. Instead of a near zero net, this carbon has an overwhelming tendency, under the right conditions, to even increase as temp or CO2 increases. Here is why. The C4 photosynthesis pathway is primarily your warm season grasses, rather than cool season grasses or trees. It is far more efficient, all else equal. So more root exudates to feed AMF. Glomalin has properties similar to "super glue" and while it does decay slowly, that decay is deep in the soil profile rather than on the surface. A far greater % converts to humic polymers that tightly bind to the mineral substrate. If anything, as it gets hotter and drier, the roots go deeper seeking ground water and even a greater % of that carbon ends up stable. Same with CO2 fertilization. For these types of plants, CO2 increases the carbon that follows this pathway. So you start with more and sequester a higher % of that more deep in the soil long term. This is a very different outcome from the decay of debris on the surface. One is a stabilizing feedback, the other a reinforcing feedback.
       Remember, my premise was we should purposely trigger a stabilizing feedback, rather than the triggering of the reinforcing feedbacks we are accidentally triggering now. So obviously I do understand the reinforcing feedbacks are present now. It’s the main reason the “CO2 fertilization” effect isn’t really doing much for us. Whatever we gain is immediately offset by increased decay rate. But change the pathway to the LCP and CO2 fertilization actually helps to increase the rate of long term sequestration.

21830. nigelj at 07:52 AM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Red Baron @6, soil absorption of carbon intuitively sounds plausible to me and clearly you have some genuine expertise. However I'm sure I read an article recently that a warming climate actually causes increased microbial activity that actually results in soils releasing CO2? You would need to prove which factor dominates.

21831. Jim Eager at 07:05 AM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       sailingfree asked

       Doesn't the evaporation - condensation - rain cycle transfer heat from the ocean to the atmosphere?

       Exactly right, sf, sensible heat at the surface is converted into latent heat through evaporation. That heat is then transported upward by convection and released as sensible heat higher up in the atmosphere by condensation, so that part of Jeffrey Middlebrook's question is based on an incorrect understanding of atmospheric heat transport.

21832. rdr95 at 06:16 AM on 8 December 2016
       Justin Trudeau approves two big oil sands pipeline expansions
       

       Andy Skuce @18: "Let me say this, if Canada adopts a carbon price above $100, I promise to shut up about banning new pipelines for climate policy reasons."

       I can't see any political way forward to a $100 price on carbon without those pipelines. It's a trade-off.

       From John Ivison (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-liberals-strategy-of-pipeline-approval-with-carbon-pricing-a-winner-with-voters-poll-suggests):

       "But a more interesting statistic emerged when Abacus asked how people would feel if a carbon pricing plan that encouraged a shift toward greater use of clean energy was accompanied by a new pipeline to get Canada’s oil and gas to new markets.

       The result is a potential game-changer: three out of four Canadians would support or accept this shift, including majorities in every region.

       In Alberta, 92 per cent of respondents bought into the idea; in Saskatchewan, the number was 83 per cent. A large majority of Conservative voters was supportive (87 per cent) and 62 per cent of NDP voters said they could go along with this decision.

       Even in Quebec, which has traditionally been hostile to pipelines, two out of three respondents said they would back a shift to renewables accompanied by a new pipeline."

21833. Kiwiiano at 05:17 AM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       The HUGE fish-hook with industrial production models is that while they may have spectacular and essential yields now, they are rapidly destroying the globe's soils. The FAO were predicting only 60 more harvests before they have been wiped out and even that figure's impact is illusionary...it won't be a case of 60 years and 'click' the light goes out, it will be decades of declining output and increasing starvation with all the social disruption that will (and already is) entail.

21834. Tom Curtis at 02:40 AM on 8 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       MA Rodger @31, the annual cycles for earlier verions of the UAH TLT were found in the "read me" files.  The average for the UAH v 6 beta5 has a mean of -9.2 C, or 263.9 K.  That is well below the 282.9 K (+8.77 C) quoted by the john warner.  john warner's values are also well above the appoximately -13.5 C mean for the AMSU chanel 4 data that he cites elsewhere for the seasonal cycle.  That makes it something of a mystery as to how he actually obtained the value.  Given that he seems only to have been making a rhetorical point "For all there knowledge global warming believers have they can never answer the simplest questions" - a point that has no basis; the issue seems moot with regard to this discussion. 

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] To all commentators responding to John Warne.

       This charade of a discussion is at an end. John Warner has unfortunately derailed this thread and offtopic discussion here stops now. John believes he can attack climate science with his superior science at any point.

       If this is so strong, then I suggest that he use the "arguments" menu to pick something he believes he has a strong case against and present the science that challenges it on the relevant thread. No sloganeering. Produce data and/or paper in support and leave the rhetoric at the door. I strongly recommend that he reads the science he is attacking first rather than just assuming he knows it based on statements so far. IPCC WG1 is your friend.

       Any discussion of surface versus satellite record goes here. Discussions about source of CO2 go here. 

21835. MA Rodger at 02:18 AM on 8 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       Moderator @ 29,

       There are of course two UAH TLT records as well as RSS TLT.

       The v6.0beta5 (which is not yet released so shouldn't be in use) has an annual cycle with an average well below freezing so the annual averages will also be below freezing. I calculate Dec15 to Nov16 at -8.67ºC. (Note, the value presented by the commenter is only a couple of fat fingers away from this value.)

       RSS TLT would have similar anomaly values. UAH TLTv5.6 has a lower average altitude (about 2km lower) so should have an average above freezing but the +8.77ºC could be a bit high. I've never seen its absolute values quoted for UAHv5.6.

21836. RedBaron at 00:41 AM on 8 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Nick,

        If you use vertical stacking and polycultures you can almost guarantee increased yields per acre. Productivity is a different issue, that is yields per man hour. No we generally have not succeeded yet in beating the industrial production models there. I would point out though....is that the problem it once was? Don't we have plenty of people capable and willing to work on this planet? It is not the old days where labor shortages were the main priority due to massive wars and famines and we were forced to import cheap labor just to keep up. (slaves from Africa, and Chinese laborers for the railroads...etc.... as examples from my country)

21837. SirCharles at 00:35 AM on 8 December 2016
       Fake news tries to blame human-caused global warming on El Niño
       

       Weather Channel Torpedoes Neo Nazi Breitbart’s Climate Lies

21838. Nick Palmer at 23:52 PM on 7 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Well done, RedBaron, for bringing up the restoration of natural levels of carbon in the soil as a powerful mitigation measure. Awareness of this seems to be growing. So far, I have not seen enough peer reviewed evidence that we could replace coventional agriculture and still get the same productivity while increasing soil carbon percentages long term but there is plenty of exciting relatively woo-free anecdotal evidence from such as Drs Christine Jones, Elaine Ingham and David Johnson.

21839. barryaclem at 23:09 PM on 7 December 2016
       Scientists can't even predict weather
       

       IMO a much more compelling arguments for laymen uses the example of tossing a coin. 

       Predicting the outcome of a single coin toss with better than fifty perc ent accuracy is impossible. However, predicting the outcome of a thousand coin tosses is trivially easy: very close to half of them will be heads.

       The weather forecast involves a lot of random elements and is therefore more like predicting a single coin toss. Predicting climate change is much more like predicting a thousand or a milion coin tosses and is therefore more accurate.

21840. sailingfree at 23:03 PM on 7 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Doesn't the evaporation - condensation - rain  cycle transfer heat from the ocean to the atmosphere?

       In his email, Middlebrook claims the opposite.   "...with greater precipitation due to more atmospheric water vapor more atmospheric heat will be transferred to the oceans and terrestrial landscapes."

21841. RedBaron at 17:45 PM on 7 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       There are case studies, mostly from Australia and CSIRO and a few from USDA that indicate between 5–20 t COe /ha/year can be sequestered long term in the soil via the newly discovered “liquid carbon pathway”. Basically to simplify a very complex and exciting new line of research, the LCP goes like this: Photosynthesis to root exudates to mycorrhizal fungi to glomalin to humic polymers to mollic epipedon. This can apply to restoring both degraded grasslands/savannas and/or seasonally arid cropland, under the right conditions, management, and methods of course. If you do that math, conservatively one could sequester long term into the soil between 62% and 250% of current yearly emissions.

       So the answer is potentially possible with a relatively high uncertainty. Since 250% is more than emissions, this stabilizing feedback could draw down CO2. That means yes it could work and we now know how to trigger it. Certainly the soil sink is large enough to hold all that carbon long enough to give the oceans a break and chance to catch up. Since it is a biological feedback that evolved over millions of years, it is unlikely to have an unacceptable risk level. We are after all simply restoring the lost ecosystem services on almost 1/2 the planet land surface that WE naively degraded with agriculture. The biggest risk being we might do it too well and slip back into a glaciation phase. But I suspect we would be quite capable of preventing that.

       However, there are some nuances. Likely if we draw down CO2 too rapidly the oceans might become an emissions source too. Like a fizzing coke! That means while we probably can sequester that carbon from the atmosphere, it might not actually do as much to stop AGW as anticipated due to CO2 being replaced almost as fast as we draw it out. Another nuance is that the low end is 62%. That wouldn’t be enough. That means we must also drop emissions to at minimum 62% or less of what they are now by converting as much as possible to renewables like solar and wind etc…

       Methane is not a problem. This will actually help the methane problem significantly due to restored methanotrophic activity. Yes, it’s true. Raised properly and as part of a healthy grassland biome, cows actually help lower atmospheric methane. The problem with methane isn’t the cow. Not their fault. It’s the feedlots and the vast overproduction of corn and soy used to supply those feedlots, thawing permafrost, dead zones in the ocean, fossil fuel well leakage etc….

       Soil Microorganisms as Controllers of Atmospheric Trace Gases (H2, CO, CH4, OCS, N2O, and NO)

       Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie

       Restoring the climate through capture and storage of soil carbon through holistic planned grazing-White Paper

21842. Eclectic at 15:00 PM on 7 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       John warner, you seem to be unaware that UAH Lower Troposphere is not a measure of global surface temperatures.  It has a limited overlap, and a rather poor correlation with: GMST.

       Your computations are therefore not valid.

       Nor have you taken into account ocean surface temperatures and total ocean heat content - all of which also have a rather poor correlation with UAH Lower Troposphere temperatures.

       The end result is that you are wasting your time, and have produced GIGO.

       Moderator Response:

       [RH] TLT has significant bleed from the stratosphere as well, and thus is biased low. If one is going to use satellite data TTT is a better product for the troposphere. But, as you note, none of the satellite data are representative of the surface temperature.

21843. john warner at 14:23 PM on 7 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       Tom Curtis @ 26 Scientific calculator, UAH Lower Troposphere, Mauna Loa CO₂ annual

       Tell moderator my regression conformed to reality.

       Tom Curtis @ 27 No Problem.   Moderator said you can't measure average annual global surface air temperature.

       Tom I can talk to you. Tell moderator that I read and understood your regression at Tom Curtis 15. I have invested a lot of time convincing you that we can have a discussion. You might also tell the moderatorer you have never received a more thoughtful, intelligent, knowledgeable, insightful response.

       The average annual global surface air temperature is 281.92^oK. [mod. - Nope. That might be TLT, but it sure isn't a surface temperature reading @ 8.77°C]

       Let's have a discussion. You choose the subject.

       While your thinking of a subject consider that dana 1981 wrote an article saying the climate change denier don't know science. I am here on your home field to prove that the global warming theory is shallow and not scientific. My preference is for you to defend what you think is the strongest scientific argument for global warming. Let's find out who has the science on their side. If you like the way I think let's see what we agree upon.

       Moderator Response:

       [RH] The moderators are perfectly capable of reading your comments. You don't need to ask Tom to tell us anything. You're skating just along the edge of moderation complaints, and per our policies, those are deleted. But continue...

       [PS] Ok, the paper I pointed to (have you read it?) points to lack of practical usefulness in any measure of absolute surface temp given the error bars. (especially compared to anomaly methods). You would know that if you read resources people have provided you. So far you have only demonstrated you have an  extremely poor grasp of even the basics of climate theory, a reluctance to improve your knowledge,  and yet on that basis believe you know more than the experts. You have so far failed completely to overturn any of the science here. You have not stated as requested where you agree or disagree with Tom's response on your CO2 outgassing fantasy.

        "You might also tell the moderatorer you have never received a more thoughtful, intelligent, knowledgeable, insightful response." ROFLMAO!

21844. nigelj at 12:15 PM on 7 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       John Warner, I have read all your posts, and broadly I disagree with your reasoning and conclusions. Much of what you say is hard to follow, and looks wrong to me, and Tom Curtis has much more in depth climate knowledge than me and has picked holes in the same things. I also cant see anything incorrect in what Tom has said, and his notes on the ice age cycles were illuminating and clear.

        Tom has also shown you the respect to respond to specific issues you raised. Now its your turn to respond to his specific points especially in post 20, points 1-4.

       You appear to believe CO2 is coming from the oceans or some other natural source. The oceans are acidifying (getting less alkaline) so are absorbing CO2, not emitting it (in a net sense over decadal time periods).

       Volcanoes and the biosphere are ruled out as significant sources. Theres a ton of research on that and you havent even begun to falsify it. You would have to show in precise detail where its wrong, not just generalise or do your own alternative version..

       There are many things that show increased CO2 comes from fossil fuels rather than other sources. The population of the earth has gone from 1 billion to about 7.5 billion in just the last 150 years, which represents a huge increase in fossil fuel use correlating rather well with increases in atmospheric CO2.

       Sure warmer and warmer water absorbs less and less CO2 but so what? it has not reached saturation and when it does that would obviously present us with even more problems.

21845. chriskoz at 11:42 AM on 7 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       RedBaron, nigelj,

       THere are no examples of such feedbacks. As you correctly asserted @2, the stabilising feedbacks act on a long timeframe of millenia. Ultimate known negative feedback of rock weathering acts on 100ky+ timeframe. Such timeframe is by definition irrelevant to humans and to human civilisations. Talking about "reinforcing" those feedbacks, while cranking the main control knob (CO2) to the overheat rate never seen in many milion years is just like joking. A sweet fairy tale, but the physics & the numbers tell you it's not a real tale.

21846. chriskoz at 11:17 AM on 7 December 2016
       Fake news tries to blame human-caused global warming on El Niño
       

       ELIofVA @7,

       I divided this net sequestration by nature by the world's population to come up with 2.57 tons/person/year to achieve net zero co2 emissions.

       You're rincorrect here. Nature (mainly oceans and biosphere) is currently sequestering human C from the atmosphere at the reate of about half of human's emission rate. If we lower the emmision by half, then the sequestration by nature will also adjust accordingly and will become about a half of new emission rate (1.3 tons/person/year accodring to your calculation): the situation we had ~40years ago. For the sequestering forces of nature to come "in ballance" with emitive forces og humans, thett human emissions must drop well below the current rate, below 5%, the lower the better. That's why scientists who know those number emphacise a complete (or at least ner complete) decarbonising of global economy is a must do to stabilise Earth's energy balance and climate.

       The above is what we know for sure. On top of that are positive feedback that we know have  happened in the past but we don't know enough to quantifi them, like e.g. warming ocean becoming carbon source in the long term. We know such feedback happened in glacial cyccle timeframe (ca 10ky) but we don't know why. In case of AGW timeframe presently, we just ignore the warming ocean CO2 feedback and hope that it does not happen in time the action be taken to bring emission rates to zero.

       Very few (if any) negative feedbacks are known that would allow a "breathing space" i.e. increased carbon budget for humans to burn without climatice consequences. Your back-envelope calculation allowance certainly cannot be sustained (if the goal is Earth climate stabilisation), although in short term is better than doing nothing and burning as much coal as possible, as current president-elect wants to do.

21847. nigelj at 10:07 AM on 7 December 2016
       Fires and drought cook Tennessee - a state represented by climate deniers
       

       Michael Sweet @9, I agree the IPCC are conservative, partly because their reports have to be signed off by governments, and some of these have interests in playing down climate change. This conservatism should certainly be pointed out to school students.

       I suppose the question is whether to teach about global warming in school, and also secondly whether to include both the mainstream and skeptical views. Whatever is done will have positives and also problems, as you point out some of the problems. However I believe ignorance is not bliss, and the basic mainstream science should be taught, and also some of the sceptical positions should be acknowledged.

       If students feel they are getting too brainwashed into just the mainstream position this could have the unintended effect of making them sceptical and they will read nonsense in their own time uncritically. Better to show them the sceptical arguments at school and their weaknesses.

       Of course I'm being idealistic. It would not be easy to get schools to do any of this correctly. But maybe it should be tried.

21848. nigelj at 09:52 AM on 7 December 2016
       From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans
       

       Red Baron @3, that is a good thought but do you have any examples?

21849. Tom Curtis at 09:23 AM on 7 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       john warner @24, the Global Mean Surface Temperature from Jan 1979-Dec 2015 was 15.1^oC with a margin of error or about +/- 1^oC (I would have to email a member of the BEST team to obtain a precise value).  The trend temperature increase over that period was 0.66^oC.  The time period was chosen to approximately match that of the satellite record but to avoid any contamination from the seasonal cycle.  This is according to the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Land Ocean Temperature Index (BEST LOTI).

21850. Tom Curtis at 09:12 AM on 7 December 2016
       Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research
       

       john warner @23, how did you obtain that regression?  Specifically, what data did you use?  Was the data used in monthly or annual values?  Did you use an ordinary least squares linear regression as obtained from the linest function in Open Office and Excel?

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] I rather doubt john warner has will or skill to engage in meaningful discussion of the science and so far has simply derailed this thread with offtopic "discussion". I have asked him to address specific points so that any further discussion to move to appropriate threads. Please dont chase after wild horses if/until john has more clearly identified his points of departure.

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