Climate Science Glossary

Term Lookup

Enter a term in the search box to find its definition.

Settings

Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off).

Term Lookup

Settings


All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Home Arguments Software Resources Comments The Consensus Project Translations About Support

Bluesky Facebook LinkedIn Mastodon MeWe

Twitter YouTube RSS Posts RSS Comments Email Subscribe


Climate's changed before
It's the sun
It's not bad
There is no consensus
It's cooling
Models are unreliable
Temp record is unreliable
Animals and plants can adapt
It hasn't warmed since 1998
Antarctica is gaining ice
View All Arguments...



Username
Password
New? Register here
Forgot your password?

Latest Posts

Archives

Recent Comments

Prev  431  432  433  434  435  436  437  438  439  440  441  442  443  444  445  446  Next

Comments 21901 to 21950:

  1. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Daniel Mocsny... You're rather oversimplifying by assigning everything to individual emissions. That's only looking at the demand side of the equation. The problem, I would suggest, is as much (or more) a function of supply. This is a systemic problem related to how we produce energy. If you say the solution is all about demand I think that's a dead end and doomed to failure. In a marketplace where nearly everything is produced using fossil fuel based energy, short of moving into a cave, consumers have little choice but to generate carbon emissions. 

    But as energy markets transition to sources that are free of carbon emissions, then consumers have real choices. They do have the ability to pick and choose and live full productive lives that are free of carbon emissions. Sadly, that only barely exists today.

    The right things are happening. Wind and solar continue to fall in price as FF sources continue to rise. The renewables industry is growing faster than any other energy market segment. Electric cars are now popular in most markets. 

    What's disturbing to me is the potential for an autocratic President to derail such a positive revolution. 

  2. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    "Rather, I mean “win” in that we have faithfully followed the scientific method, explored alternative hypotheses, checked and rechecked our work, and have come to a truth that is unassailable. We’ve done our job."

    That would be the end of it if you're talking about a field of science such as astronomy that normally has almost no impact on any entrenched interests (individual lifestyles, organized religions, or large-scale industries). (Of course astronomy hasn't always stayed out of trouble - back in the 1600s Galileo found himself in conflict with the religious authorities when he failed to discover the required truth. Astronomers then were in the unfortunate position of today's climate scientists, having to debunk popular delusions, and suffering the predictable unpleasant backlash.)

    Or that would be the end of it when scientists report only to narrow patron groups with stable and predictable reasoning processes, such as the military brass (for weapons research), venture capitalists, and so on.

    Sadly for humanity's survival prospects, climate truth is readily assailable. It's getting more successfully assailed than any other field of science. Even a man with no scientific training can win the juiciest prize in politics - the US Presidency - by denying climate science. Donald Trump's falsehoods resonate deeply with (just enough) voters, which means climate truth is not only assailable, it's one of the softest targets out there. If climate truth were actually "unassailable," then denying it would immediately disqualify a person for high office. But the opposite is true now. The complex and abstract nature of the science, and the unwelcome implications for the American lifestyle, make the science eminently assailable. Especially in light of the audience having been preconditioned by years of right-wing attacks on science.

    Climate science is nothing like many other less consequential areas of science. It's about as far-reaching as fighting World War II, but with a much longer commitment time. Total war requires near-total agreement from nearly every member of the general population. The climate scientist's job isn't done until there is nearly complete buy-in from the public. Merely convincing the tiny handful of fellow trained experts is just the first step out of base camp on the climb up Mount Everest. (Unless scientists don't care about what happens to humanity, and are merely interested in acquiring knowledge which will soon be lost when climate chaos ushers in a new dark age and life goes back to being nasty, brutish, and short.)

    The difficulty is that humanity has an overall budget for "allowable" greenhouse gas emissions. (Picking a temperature target roughly fixes the maximum atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases which in turn roughly fixes the total cumulative amount of durable greenhouse gases we can dump in the atmosphere.) Dividing the total by the global population (which is still growing by over 200,000/day) gives the remaining allowance per individual. Dividing that by the number of years until some target date when we expect humanity's net annual emissions to become zero (which doesn't even seem possible, but we have to assume it will be or we can just commit suicide now) gives the individual's annual emission allowance - and it comes to something less than 2 tonnes of CO2e/yr, about one tenth of the average American's emissions. This assumes we will have an equitable solution for climate change. If not - if some individuals are to be privileged, with a right to dump more greenhouse gas pollution than other individuals - then the high emitters need to justify their privilege somehow, and enforce it on the low emitters who aspire to become high emitters.

    Naturally almost no one in the English-speaking world wants to frame the problem in terms of individual emissions (which is the only logically coherent framing, since the individual is unit of climate change causation, much as the individual heroin user is the unit of the heroin problem), because most native English speakers are among the world's top billion individual emitters. Even worse, the ruling class in almost every country consists of individuals from the top few centiles of greenhouse gas emissions for that country. The people who are talking to our high-emitting rulers are themselves mostly high emitters in proportion to their income level: scientists. It's hard to do cutting-edge science without burning plenty of jet fuel. A quick jaunt to one academic conference can gobble an individual's emission allowance for the whole year.

    The inconvenient truth is inconvenient on more levels than even many people close to the issue want to confront. I think a good way to come to grips with it is to do the following:

    1. Using every available technology or technique, try to reduce your emissions to an honest individual fair share. For most people, this pretty much precludes flying, driving, heating, cooling, eating meat, owning meat-eating pets, or procreating. (If you can find a way to live on your carbon fair share while still doing some or all of those things, great - write a book so I can read it.)
    2. Once you have your emissions somewhat under control, find the climate science denier nearest you (you probably needn't go far - he'll still have a Trump sign up), and try to persuade him or her to repeat what you did in step 1.
    3. If that sounds too daunting, then pick what should be a slightly easier target: a Clinton voter who at least verbally acknowledges scientific reality, but continues to behave as if climate science is bunk (by flying, driving, etc.). Try to talk the person who should know better into behaving as if science is real.

    If we can't even persuade one individual, then we're not nearly ready to try persuading the entire public. You'll find with one individual that you need to identify and destroy multiple onion-peel layers of disinformation he or she has absorbed or self-constructed. There's no way to correct all that damage with just a drive-by public service announcement. It takes lengthy one-on-one commitment and relationship building.

  3. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    I agree Michael The ocean is the unknown to me. All I have claimed ever is that we can sequester into the soil many times more than all the biomass and atmospheric carbon combined based on the fact that since human impact many times more was lost. Currently right now world wide we lose so much soil there is more abandoned cropland than arable cropland. I could go on and on but this explains it better. Soil Erosion Threatens Food Production

    So honestly there is a strong case for rebuilding soil rapidly like the new research in the LCP allows us to do, whether or not it changes AGW or not. But the numbers are larger that all the other climate scientists mitigation proposals combined. More than zero carbon emissions, more than CCS, more than all of them. So either every CO2 mitigation plan ever made is completely useless and nothing will work, or this will work. Simple as that. I don't know if it is large enough to capture all the outgassing of the ocean. But if it can't, then nothing can in under millions of years and nothing we do including 0 emissions has any chances of reversing AGW. I don't believe that any more than I believe AGW denialism. The only difference being 1 denies we did it, and the other denies we can fix it. But both are in complete denial of human impact on the biosphere, whether positive or negative.

  4. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Jonbo @69, I dont have any in depth list in my head of research on extreme weather, as I just take a general interest in climate change. However I came across this media article a while ago which discusses quite specific storms and and floods in Britain and evidence linking them to climate change. It's a good overview style of article, but with links to several specific published papers which may interest you.

    energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/01/04/uk-flooding-climate-change/

    Much of the weather research papers appear to be on certain trends in certain countries and finds some things changing and some not changing or even getting less severe. Its so hard to make sense of this as an individual and one or two papers on specific events dont give the full picture.

    However James Hansen did an overview of global extreme weather by looking at a large number of events and countries, and concluded its getting more extreme. Im pretty sure thats the paper quoted above. This is probably as near as you would get to a definitive single paper.

    I think we have to trust the IPCC as well. They review all the research to see what it adds up to as a global trend overall, and have broadly concluded certain things are getting worse globally (including heat waves and heavy rain events) and its too soon to be certain about others like hurricane activity. Their summary for policy makes is online. Its hard for an individual to do such a big review,  so I have to put my faith in the team of experts who serve on the IPCC.

    And you will get a lot of regional variation. Some weather may get less extreme in some places because of regional factors, and this is ripe for cherry picking by climate sceptics. I'm interested in the big global picture, and it does seem certain weather is generally becoming more extreme overall.

    In comparison the skeptical study you mentioned seems to have an agenda. The author listed too few cases to be able to draw conclusions. We know not all weather events will get more extreme everywhere so its complicated, therefore you have to look at a very wide selection of events and regions before drawing a conclusion.

    The author also made claims about temperature trends my country of New Zealand which I strongly dispute and I have local knowledge of the issues he raised.

  5. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Red Baron,

    James Hansen has discussed ocean outgassing of CO2 once emissions become low enough that the ocean has more CO2 than the air.  Look for articles on geoengineering that remove CO2 from the air.    As I recall (sorry no link but you rarely link), the top 1000 meters of the ocean starts to emit CO2 quickly after CO2 in the atmosphere starts to drop and will be a very large amount of carbon dioxide compared to the amounts you are talking about sequestering in the soil.  The ocean contains much more carbon than the atmosphere.

    You need to provide data and/or links to support your claims that soil can sequester the amount of CO2 that will come out of the ocean.  The immense amount of carbon that needs to be sequestered is the problem for any geoengineering scheme that proposes to remove carbon from the air.  Most of the carbon that has been emitted would eventually have to be removed, natural sequestration processes are very slow on a human timescale.  You do not appear to have determined the amount of carbon that your scheme needs to address.

    At the same time the deep ocean absorbs some CO2.  Depending on the exact amounts of emissions, sequestering and time frame the distribution of CO2 is different.  Evaluating the issue is complex.  One issue with soil sequestration is that if there was a change in soil use, say there was a severe drought or war, that can release the carbon sequestered in the soil.

    Any sequestering of CO2 is a good thing and increased carbon in the soil increases productivity.  I see little downside or risk to increasing soil carbon.  I have not seen here data that I think supports your claims that enough CO2 can be sequestered in the soil to substantially lower temperatures.  The amount you claim can be removed has to be compared to the amount that needs to be removed.  The latter has not been addressed.

    When you say you do not know how much CO2 can potentially come out of the ocean it appears that you need to do more background research to support your very strong claims.  The amount of CO2 involved is potentially many times more than is currently in the atmosphere.

  6. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    #Daniel

    Many thanks

  7. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Jonbo69 - also see:

    Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy. "Perception of climate change." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109.37 (2012): E2415-E2423.

    Google Scholar entry with links to the Open Access paper online

  8. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Jonbo69: "are there any up-to-date papers on the subject of extreme weather...?"

    How about a book:

    Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by: Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution; Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
    National Academies Press | 200 pages | ISBN: 978-0-309-38094-2 | DOI: 10.17226/21852 | 2016

    NAP official book page - The PDF is free to download from NAP; or you can buy the dead tree edition.

    Google Books entry
    Goodreads entry


  9. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Andy Skuce,

    You said,

    My question, and it's a real one, I don't know the answer: is it reasonable to assume that we could store more carbon in the biosphere—in a stable manner and securely for the long-term—than there was there prior to human interference?

    We probably could. Maybe not. However, there probably is no need. This is the most common mistake made when I talk to climate scientists rather than farmers. Because your main focus is on the atmosphere you automatically equate loss of soil carbon as emissions. That is a portion of the loss yes. However, a far greater loss of carbon has resulted from erosion. That carbon did not all result in increases of atmospheric CO2, but rather most is currently sitting on the bottom of our waterways, lakes and oceans.

    So we have the counter-intuitive result that actually long before we restore our agricultural soils to historic levels prior to human interference, that excess CO2 in the atmosphere will be long gone.

    That leaves us back to the nuance I mentioned before. The Oceans. They will likely become an emissions source under any atmospheric draw down scenario. But I have seen no studies that looked closely enough at that to actually quantify it, neither by rate, nor by total. There are a few that have done work on how much they absorbed, but not what they might cough back up. Those numbers shouldn't be assumed to be equal, as many processes sequester carbon long term in the oceans, and fossil releases like methane clathrates can happen too. So quite honestly I don't know and it boggles my mind to even make an educated guess.

    I suspect that the excess atmospheric carbon combined with additional atmospheric carbon released from the ocean will not be enough to restore the carbon to historical levels in the soil, but it probably should be enough to at least get our soils healthy and stable again.  However, that is not an educated guess, not even a wild guess, just a hunch and a promising new line of research for someone smarter and younger than me. I have spent years just trying to understand the atmosphere and soil; The oceans and seabed? Way out of my league. The little I do know from talking to marine biologists only made me realise I basically know nothing. It is that complex.

  10. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    That is a great interview, Red Baron. So now what I see is yet another Australian great agricultural intellect attempting to educate farmers on how to improve their production with good knowledge and good practice.

    Who knows, maybe Christine Jones will be the one who breaks through that tough farmer hide and actually get farmers changing their methods and understandings. The experience seems to be the same as talking global warming to tea party republicans. There has been an impressive procession of others ahead of her. 

    So as Fergus Brown says, get to it,...make it happen. It should, after all be a doddle to absorb all of Australia's emissions in the land. We do, afterall, have 30 Australian hectares per person, how hard can it be? Please let us know when it is done.

  11. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    According to the 2015 Global Carbon Budget Report, cumulative land use emissions since 1750 from deforestation and soil deterioration amount to about 200 GtC. Presumably, the Holocene biosphere carbon stock was relatively stable prior to that (I know, Ruddiman argues for anthropogenic emissions before that, but they are not comparatively very big). If we are to stabilize the climate and don't bring fossil fuel emissions down to zero, we will need to sequester more than that.

    My question, and it's a real one, I don't know the answer: is it reasonable to assume that we could store more carbon in the biosphere—in a stable manner and securely for the long-term—than there was there prior to human interference?

  12. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    PS to the post above. I found a way to allow Dr. Jones explain it herself, much better than I have communicated it, in an interview.

    Dr. Christine Jones Explains the Life-Giving
    Link Between Carbon and Healthy Topsoil

  13. There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    To all between 26 and 33 two corrections: I used UAH Mid Troposphere. I think channel 4 was down in 1912 when I sent this to Dan Lashof at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
    There is a typo I need corrected at line 16 for john warner @22 Change, did conform, to did not conform.
    My source for the earth’s average annual global surface air temperature of 281.92oK, is NASA 2010 CERES Earth Energy Budget. Notice absorbed by atmosphere is 358.2wpsm. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law Calculator yields an average annual global surface air temperature of 281.92oK.

    https://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/pdf/Energy_Budget_Litho_10year.pdf

    I have enjoyed the challenge of communicating on Skeptical Science. I learned a lot.

  14. There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    Nigelj @ 28 I appreciate the opportunity to explain the design of my linear regression.There are scientific concerns and statistical concerns. When there are known laws of physics you don’t have to use statistical analysis to generate coefficients for calculating the effect of carbon dioxide on air temperature. But in order to calculate the effect that air temperature has on the quantity of carbon dioxide in the air we do. We know that colder water absorbs carbon dioxide at a faster rate than hotter water. Assuming that water temperature and air temperature annually globally vary together we can model that if air temperature goes down the water temperature will go down also and absorb more carbon dioxide. If that assumption is wrong the regression coefficient will tell us with a change of sign. I assume that all of the gross increase in carbon dioxide emissions each year comes from humans burning fossil fuels and other organic material. Since more than average carbon dioxide is being absorbed we think the net growth in carbon dioxide left in the air will be decreased. On the other hand if the air temperature is higher than normal we assume that the water temperature will be higher and that less carbon dioxide will be absorbed. Then the annual growth in carbon dioxide in the air will be larger. To be scientifically correct we have to model changes in the magnitude of the annual increase of carbon dioxide as a function of the air temperature. This makes carbon dioxide the dependent variable and air temperature the independent variable. If we use anomalies as the measure of temperature around the 1981 to 2010 baseline, on the graph of the regression results 0.0 on the x axis will also represent when the anomaly is 0.0. The statistical consideration is that when dealing with time series data and the quantities are autocorrelated the scatter of plots is not a random sample. This problem was avoided by modeling dC for carbon dioxide and anomalies for temperature. Also when it is obvious the variables are correlated with a third variable time you have a multicolinearity problem. Modeling dC and T anomalies avoids this problem also. If you graph the regression, the sloping line wii intersect the y axis at 1.7. This means when the anomaly is 0.0oK the carbon dioxide growth is 1.7ppm/yr. If the temperature anomaly is higher the carbon dioxide growth rate is higher. If the temperature is lower the growth rate is lower. 58% of the variation in the growth rate per year of carbon dioxide is explained by the earth’s air temperature. Between 1979 and 2011 the mean growth was 1.7ppm per year. The regression coefficient says if the air temperature goes up 1.0oK the growth rate of carbon dioxide will go up 1.94ppm/yr for a total of 3.64ppm/yr.

    I took time away from my mission because I wanted to prove that I know my science by evaluating Tom Curtis’s carbon dioxide sensitivity coefficient linear regression. I want to tie things up on this subject. Tom Curtis said the GMST is a proxy for air temperature. 70% of GMST temperatures are ship log sea surface temperature. We already know ocean temperature is the primary determinant of carbon dioxide absorption. From a practical point the variation in the data for Tom’s dependent variable comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures. On the independent variable, carbon dioxide radiative forcing is a close derivative of the change in carbon dioxide per year. In essence, regardless of the labels he put on the variables he was regressing sea surface temperatures against the change in carbon dioxide per year. The order of causation is wrong but the attained R2 is the same.

  15. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    BilB,

    About 22.3 million hectares are planted annually to commercial grain crops across Australia.[1] At the rate Ms Jones measured in her pasture cropping case studies of 5-20 tCO2/ha/yr that equates to between 111.5 to 446 Mt CO2/yr. Australia emitted 549.3 Mt CO2 in 2014. So just pasture cropping alone could offset between 20% and 80% of Australia's CO2 emissions before we even begin to discuss other agricultural areas. That land was already cleared long ago, and the soils already degraded long ago.

    As for the rest of your post regarding livestock grazing alone, a far larger land area, what are you refering to? Livestock? or properly managed livestock?

    @Fergus Brown,

    You asked "where does this lead us?". I have made a rough white paper on another thread here: That's just my idea. I highly suspect there are others who could flesh it out better, or suggest other ways forward.

  16. Models are unreliable

    Spencer now shows Cornbelt data, and "42 CMIP5 models.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Corn-belt-temp-JJA-thru-2016-vs-42-CMIP5-models-1.jpg

    He implies that the CMIP5 projections are for the cornbelt.

    Is this true?

    (In my local newspaper I clash with Joe D'Aleo's misiformation, can use help.)

  17. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Related to the previous question: The paper cites "Two separate studies [that] found that the 2013 extreme heat in Australia would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change."  Is there a good compendium of other very high confidence associations like this?

  18. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    nigelj

    Thanks. I ended up doing a bit more research anyway and found the journal the paper was published in to be extremely dodgy, plus i took a closer looke at the references which included A. Watt, Roger Peike Junior, the GWPF etc. That aside, are there any up-to-date papers on the subject of extreme weather that are worth referencing?

  19. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    RB, Excuse the density. In Lal, 2008 I see: "Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands."

    As you point out, all of these practices matter for the sake of the soil, but in terms of C sequestration WRT climate, they all amount to LULCC practices. So what is new? There doesn't seem to be anything controversial in any of the ideas proposed, but the mechanisms require actions which are already seen as being desirable, so where does this lead us?

  20. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Well, Red Baron, from my read of Christine Jones' article the humification process is fostered with, amoung other things, composted material. I don't doubt the science at all, some of this science is covered in a very interesting read "the hidden Life of Trees", what I do doubt is the scale and reliability of the process en masse. The soil works the way it works because that is what the conditions allow. Christine Jones makes the sweeping claim that 60% of Australia's land area is used for food production, but that is a flawed claim as most of that land area is sparcely utilised by livestock and in no way ever travelled over by humans let alone intensively farmed in the way to promote the soil changes proposed. 

    The other problem I have with this approach is that you only get to store carbon in this intensive farming way after you've cleared away the 100 to 640 carbon tonnes of bush land vegetation that was there in the first place, so improving the soil carbon is really a restorative process rather than the creation of new carbon storage capacity. Yes it is a good thing to do, but it is really two steps back for one step forward, and having decided to clear land for farming improving soil carbon sequestration in this way should be a high priority, for all of the reasons you have mentioned.

  21. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    BilB,

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) do not decompose compost. You are confused between AMF and Saprophytic fungi. So pretty much everything you wrote applies to something completely different. Furthermore, every example I gave in this and many other posts all went to this form of agriculture not to save the planet by sequestering carbon, but rather because they were backed into a corner and needed to find a more profitable way to farm or lose the farm. Every one. So that part of your analysis is completely wrong too. In fact the reason it is catching on and spreading so rapidly is that soil degradation is a more emmediate threat for many farmers than AGW. Turns out that there is more carbon missing from our soils than extra in the atmosphere. But your analysis is completely backwards because you don't understand the soil or the carbon cycle in the soil.

  22. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    RedBaron

    The first problem with the soil carbon theory is that It requires an intensity of effort and a quantity of compostible biomass far greater than that available in our dry land. 

    The second problem is that it is sequestering carbon, as also does the ocean cycle, in a way that makes this carbon permanently unavailable for human civilization to use in the future hundreds and thousands of years.

    We are so hooked on the notion that there is abundant carbon and forever, not true. The Earth has been bleeding carbon off into space for billions of years, and it was only by chance that algal life set to work capturing carbon from the primative atmosphere and sequestering it in the form of coal, oil gas, and clathrates, forms of concentrated carbon that can be collected fairly easily by civilization. All along the way atmospheric CO2 has been reducing due to the bleed off and dispersion throughout the Earth's surface to the point where it is a trace gas at a level that still sustains life. Atmospheric CO2 in the natural cycle is topped up from the plate techtonic volcanic cycle as subducting plates boil off CO2 as rock moves into the mantle so we are not going to run out of atmospheric CO2 any time soon, but what we are at risk of running out of is readily available condensed Carbon, Carbon which our civilization would not function without, and I am not referring to carbon as fuel here.

    So while you are wishing away our Carbon into the soil and oceans so that inefficient fossil fuel entrepreneurs can be rich for a century more be aware that at the end of the road there is neither enough carbon to build our technology, nor the carbon as fuel to process it. 

    I am 100% certain that the notion that "soil sequestration can absorb Australia's CO2 emissions" will not stand up to quantified scrutiny. It is a total false assumption that farmers who operate on a commercial razors edge will somehow have the extra resource to collect all of their biomass, compost it, and disperse it over any significant percentage of Australian lands under appropriate conditions in order to promote the growth of different soil fungi with subsequent CO2 sequestration. Most of Australia's land does not produce enough biomass to even begin to activate such a plan. The only thing I agree with you on, is that methane form cows is a bloated argument in my opinion. 

     

    The only poath forward for our civilisation is to agressively develop and implement sustainable and renewable technologies in order to reduce the rate of extraction of fossil carbon to both reduce atmospheric CO2, and preserve as much readily available carbon for the continuity of our civilisation. 

    Every single Australian is currently consuming a continuous 7 kilowatts of energy 24/7/365. That is a staggering energy consumption and all of that comes from fossil fuels. That is the equivalent of burning .75 litres of petrol every hour continuously. And that does not include the energy content of the goods Australia imports.

  23. Climate's changed before

    shelleyratcliffe: (1) The increased insulation by greenhouse gasses, of the stratosphere from the energy radiating from the surface. (2) Greenhouse gasses gather energy and radiate energy. In the lower atmosphere, there are more greenhouse gas molecules above those, to absorb those photons being radiated, and most of that absorbed energy is transferred to other molecules (greenhouse and not). But at the top of the atmosphere, there are few molecules to absorb that energy, so that radiated energy vanishes to space.

  24. shelleyratcliffe at 13:44 PM on 9 December 2016
    Climate's changed before

    Apologies if this is a dumb question, but you say that the cooling of the upper atmosphere is a fingerprint of human-caused global warming. Why?

    Moderator Response:

    [PS[ This has nothing to do with past climate. Could follow ups please go to either Fingerprints of AGW or better still Stratospheric cooling. Not a dumb question though  - it is a complicated things to get your head around.

  25. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Jonbo69 @3, I had a very quick read of the paper. He claims weather has if anything got less extreme globally over the last 50 years. His paper is a massive cherry picking of very selective weather events, and a couple of selective countries that happen to suit his case.

    He also takes a reduction in flood costs in America to mean less floods when this may obviously not be the case. The paper is complete rubbish.

  26. Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing

    It won't be news to many on this site but the videos of potholer54 are very pertinent as well as being amusing.

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Link added (for those living in caves)

  27. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    nigelj @16

    I seem to remember you live in New Zealand. So have a look at the Listener magazine for 19-25 November — it has an article on pasture cropping that is relevant.

    RedBaron @13

    I haven't forgotten my study of the links you gave me earlier to do with the aforementioned topic — an unexpected sojourn in hospital got in the way, but I hope to resume soon.

  28. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    I've just come across someone touting this paper "Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice" Kelly MJ*
    Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, 9 JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FA, UK

    Any critiques or rebuttals?

  29. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    Climate change does indeed have wide implications, and perhaps these are hard for some people to assimilate as they are complex and longer term. But we have to try, because climate change is an issue best addressed now and not left to some desperate and high risk geoengineering solution.

    Renewable energy is inevitable anyway because fossil fuels are a finite resource, so we might as well start making the transition now. We need to get people to see climate change is just bringing the inevitable forwards, and this transition is inevitable. We need to get people to see the change in a positive light, and then things will take off.

  30. Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing

    I'm probably just a few days away from reaching the one million milestone for total computing credit with Climateprediction.net. My total credit stands at 997,353 now. My recent average credit is a little over 1,000/day. So, maybe I'll get there in three days unless Trump finds a way to outlaw climate science before he takes office.

    Since Climateprediction.net sometimes runs out of tasks to distribute, I also donate computer time to World Community Grid, which always maintains a backlog of tasks. WCG supports a variety of volunteer computing projects, all of them socially useful in some way (disease prevention, developing renewable energy, etc.).

    I run BOINC on my little notebook computer, which consumes around 20W or less. In the cold months I harvest the waste heat by having the computer on a stand inside my homemade thermal shelter. (With the computer plus my ~100W of body heat, the inside temperature of the shelter reaches around 25°F-30°F above my surrounding house temperature, enabling me to comfortably get through most southern Ohio winters without heating my house much. I only have to run the heat briefly on occasion when we get cold enough weather to freeze my pipes. Thanks to global warming that seems to be happening less often. But we might get close next week.)

  31. The History of Climate Science

    I suggest adding the contribution of Eunice Foote to climate science.  On August 23, 1856, Eunice presented a paper at the Eighth Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science explaining her experiments that demonstrated the effects of the sun on various gases and theorized that those gases could lead to a gradual warming of the earth's atmosphere.  She found (surprise, surprise) that, of the gasses she tested, CO2 trapped the most heat.  See http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/lady-scientist-helped-revolutionize-climate-science-didnt-get-credit-180961291/.

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Fixex link

  32. Report helps scientists communicate how global warming is worsening natural disasters

    The communication suggestions at the end of the article cited are actually very good. (For those who want to skip the long read and get to the suggestions at the end.) The challenge, however, is immense: Explaining how uncommonly frigid air is linked to climate change; Explaining how a 0.2° C trend can be significant in locations where the weather jumps 24° from one day to the next; Explaining that effects that will happen hundreds of years into the future demand urgent attention now (I live below sea level!); And attribution studies that references probability — even with topics like public works it is hard to convince people not to spend $1 million on an intersection where an accident has in fact occurred and to rather spend it on general measures for the other 1000 intersections which are equally vulnerable. Action demanded by climate change by its nature conspires against the instinctual prejudices of the human mind.

    I remain nevertheless convinced that even well-intentioned conservatives can be turned into allies for action against climate change once one is able to trigger their loyalty instincts for the preservation of the things they care about.

  33. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Red Baron @13, thanks. I did think both processes were operating in tandem, hence my comment on which one you thought would be dominant. Looks like its carbon storage. Maybe you should write a  research paper or article on it, as you are passionate about it.

    Seems like soil carbon storage is proof at least a few negative feedbacks could be reinforced, but the problem is it would be a long term project and would require changes in farming techniques and I dont see that happening too fast. It seems hard enough persuading the world to reduce emissions. However I suppose every effort helps.

    Another negative feedback is the forces that ultimately generate ice age cycles by reducing solar irradiation patterns on the earth. However the only way of reinforcing that would be geoengineering, and it would be very high risk.

    We come back to carbon emissions as the main thing that can be realistically tackled in a practical sense. But the "politics" of the whole thing are the hard part.

  34. Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research

    To all between 26 and 33 two corrections: I used UAH Mid Troposphere. I think channel 4 was down in 1912 when I sent this to Dan Lashof at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
    There is a typo I need corrected at line 16 for john warner @22 Change, did conform, to did not conform.
    My source for the earth’s average annual global surface air temperature of 281.92oK, is NASA 2010 CERES Earth Energy Budget. Notice absorbed by atmosphere is 358.2wpsm. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law Calculator yields an average annual global surface air temperature of 281.92oK.

    https://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/pdf/Energy_Budget_Litho_10year.pdf

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] You have been responded to on the appropriate thread. Do as directed. No further offtopic comment is being permitted here.

  35. They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'

    Did the change in nomenclature occur when ice core samples were more closely looked at (50 years of scientific endevour hardly says mastery to me http://www.clim-past.net/9/2525/2013/cp-9-2525-2013.pdf)? Why did climategate  get swept under the rug? The real reason you have skeptics is due to those emails regardless of how they were dismissed- which I'm sure is part of another topic and I'll be chastised for bringing it up here- scoff- guffaw- also there is the interesting bit about where the temperatures are being read from- as we all know, concrete creates and stores heat so placing a reading site in the city where thirty years ago temp readings were done atop grassy plains will skew the data-https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxnews.com/science/2013/08/13/weather-station-closures-flaws-in-temperature-record.amp.html?client=safari - just a skeptic of all things derived by humans- especially when the "solve" is taxation and doesn't focus on the real elephant in the room- toxic waste. Nuclear wastE. medical waste. We don't dare touch those as the united corps of greed would report less profit that quarter. And don't get me started on DU chemical weapons and the MIC-  I digress. Appogies for any errs as I typed this on my phone

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Sloganeering.

    [PS]

    Thank you for taking the time to share with us.  Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself.  Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.

    Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

    Besides sloganeering, you also went for gish-gallop and offtopic. Use the search function or arguments buttons at the top to find appropriate places to comment but read the article first. Repeating long-debunked slogans because you havent got better informed is welcome at say WUWT but not here.

     

  36. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    me@11

    Not negative per the Middlebrook email. I am not referring to Red Barron's very interesting possibility.

  37. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Eager Jim@11, me @7

    Thanks. So no negative feedback afterall.

  38. Justin Trudeau approves two big oil sands pipeline expansions

    Saxifrage does breakdown the emissions from the projects as upstream (in Canada) and downstream (overseas in the case of export projects). So you can easily factor out the downstream emissions if you are just trying to calculate the Canadian emissions.

    Promoters of LNG projects like to refer to incremental downstream emissions, because if gas replaces coal, the incremental emissions would be net negative. The implication is that net negative downstream emissions can be credited to Canada, whereas net positive emissions in export markets should not be.

    A quibble with Saxifrage's calculation is that he basically assumes that all of the upstream emissions made to fill the pipeline will be new emissions that wouldn't have happened had the pipeline not been built. That could be true, but is not necessarily so. The counterfactual assumptions are not straightforward and are debatable.

    I heard Premier Notley in a radio interview the other day claiming that no pipeline would increase emissions because the growth in oil sands production will happen, pipelines or not. This strains credulity, particularly because she also claims that pipelines will add thousands of new long term jobs. You just can't claim both. I'm planning a post on my blog covering this and other stretchings of reality.

    In other news, Notley has agreed to debate Andrew Weaver on television. That should be interesting. Weaver has been very scathing lately about Alberta's Climate Leadership Plan. If I find out when this debate will happen, I will comment here.

  39. Justin Trudeau approves two big oil sands pipeline expansions

    I have a quible with analyses like Saxifrage's: he counts the cost of burning Oil Sands oil, when most is destined for the export market.  Gasoline imported from the middle east and burned in Canadian cars counts towards Canadian emissions.  Nature doesn't care where the CO2 comes from, but counting fuel burned in export markets leads to double counting.  

    I echo Magma's sentiment, particularly with respect to  the Pacific NW LNG project.
    The analysis also doesn't relate the pipelines to each other; if all were to be approved, it would effect the capacity used of other pipelines.  I cannot tell if these estimates account for the displacement of oil that would not be shipped via rail or truck if the pipelines were not built.

    It should also be noted that Alberta government has also pledged a (admittedly ludicrously high) "legislated emissions limit on the oil sands of a maximum of 100Mt in any year with provisions for cogeneration and new upgrading capacity."

    Tombe has stated that a ~$130/tonne price will be necessary; $50 is the Trudeau goverment's 2020 target.

  40. Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research

    For completeness, I have analysed the relationship between CO2 forcing and the UAH TLT v6 beta5 elsewhere.

    Further, with the moderators indulgence, I will respond to john warner's request that, "You might also tell the moderatorer you have never received a more thoughtful, intelligent, knowledgeable, insightful response."

    Frankly, I would have used none of those adjectives in describing john warner's contribution to this debate.  Rather, his analysis has been poor, relied too heavilly on cherry picked sources; and his discussion has been non-responsive and marked mostly by failure to acknowledge contrary evidence.  Finally, his reasoning has been masked by his composition, which as previously remarked, resembles word salad.  I find it difficult to believe clear logical thought underlies such poorly expressed arguments.

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Thank you for cooperation in putting your response to an appropriate thread.

  41. There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    Elsewhere, I have noted that:

     "Using the Law Dome combined CO2 data plus the BEST Land Ocean Temperature Index over the period of their overlap (1850-2013), we find a correlation between CO2 forcing (calculated as 5.35 x ln(CO2current/CO2initial)) of 0.900, an R-squared of 0.811, with a linear regression of 0.58 +/- 0.044 C/(W/m^2).  ... Using just the raw Law Dome data (with no Cape Grim), however, we achieve a correlation of 0.711, and R-squared of 0.505, and a regression of 0.59 +/- 0.164 C/(W/m^2). Using forcings calculated from the Mauna Loa montly values from March 1958 to July 2016, the correlation is 0.854, the R-squared is 0.729, and the linear regression is 0.62 +/- 0.28 C/(W/m^2)."

    My respondent, like victorag above, refused to accept the mathematical results based on their eyeballing of the timeseries of the CO2 concentration data plotted alongside the temperature data.  They also insisted that the UAH TLT v6 was, despite being still in beta, the "gold standard of temperature records", a claim in stark contradiction to the evidence.  Despite this, I thought it would be instructive to run the regressions over the UAH TLT v6 beta 5 vs the Mauna Loa monthly data.  Before doing so, I converted the Mauna Loa data to anomaly values, both to eliminate the seasonal cycle and because the UAH data was also in anomaly values (and hence without a seasonal cycle).

    Regressing temperature against CO2 forcing, we obtain a result of 0.43 +/- 0.06 C/(W/m^2) with a correlation of 0.556 and an R-squared of 0.309.  That regressed value indicates a transient climate response of 1.59 +/- 0.22 C per doubling of CO2, a value well within error of the 2.29 +/- 1 C per doubling of CO2 from the Mauna Loa data (the highest value obtained).  The shorter time span and greater perturbation of the satellite record by ENSO fluctuations, however, does reduce the proportion of the variation explained by the change in CO2 concentration (as shown by the smaller R-squared).

    AGW deniers typically argue, in the face of this sort of data, that the correlation is a function of the temperature impact on the CO2 concentration, or growth in the CO2 concentration - ie, that the analysis has causation reversed.  However, regressing CO2 concentration against temperature gives results of 49 +/- 7 ppmv/oC (Correlation: 0.552; R-squared: 0.305).  On the surface, and given the trend increase of 0.41oC over the period analyzed, that would mean temperature accounts for just 19.9 ppmv of the trend 64.6 ppmv increase in CO2 concentration over that period.  In contrast, based on the regression, CO2 forcing accounts for 0.404 of the 0.405oC trend temperature increase.  In short, temperature explains CO2 concentration far worse than CO2 forcing explains temperature.  It is likely that apparent forcing of CO2 concentration by temperature shown by the regression is an artifact of CO2 forcing causing the increase in temperature, particularly given that it is at least twice the value shown in other situations where we know change in temperature drives the increase in CO2, such as durring the glacial/interglacial cycle.

    dCO2 concentration is even worse, showing a regression of 0.06 +/- 0.18 ppmv/oC (Correlation: 0.03; R-squared: 0.001).  That is, the values are neither correlated, nor stastically significant, although it is possible better results might be obtained with suitably lagged values.

    In summary, the evidence remains that there is a strong correlation between CO2 and/or CO2 forcing and temperature, and that correlation is primarilly driven by changes in CO2 concentration driving changes in the Earth's GMST.

  42. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Your confusion results from not clearly defining the carbon in the soils. Actually both are correct even though they may seem contradictory. The simple answer is this. There are two completely different biochemical pathways. The first we will call "labile carbon". This is the carbon resulting from the decay of organic plant and animal debris in the top O-horizon and the upper layers of the A-horizon of the soil. Bacteria, fungi, small arthropods, worms etc... do decay that material more rapidly as temperatures warm. This carbon mostly ends back into atmosphere as CO2, or CH4 in anaerobic conditions. The Roth C mathematical model is pretty effective at determining the tiny % that gets stored long term into the soil this way. It isn't much. This whole process therefore is considered a reinforcing feedback, rather than a stabilizing feedback.
    The newly discovered LCP feeds an entirely different soil carbon pool which we can call the "stable carbon" fraction of the soil carbon pool. Instead of a near zero net, this carbon has an overwhelming tendency, under the right conditions, to even increase as temp or CO2 increases. Here is why. The C4 photosynthesis pathway is primarily your warm season grasses, rather than cool season grasses or trees. It is far more efficient, all else equal. So more root exudates to feed AMF. Glomalin has properties similar to "super glue" and while it does decay slowly, that decay is deep in the soil profile rather than on the surface. A far greater % converts to humic polymers that tightly bind to the mineral substrate. If anything, as it gets hotter and drier, the roots go deeper seeking ground water and even a greater % of that carbon ends up stable. Same with CO2 fertilization. For these types of plants, CO2 increases the carbon that follows this pathway. So you start with more and sequester a higher % of that more deep in the soil long term. This is a very different outcome from the decay of debris on the surface. One is a stabilizing feedback, the other a reinforcing feedback.
    Remember, my premise was we should purposely trigger a stabilizing feedback, rather than the triggering of the reinforcing feedbacks we are accidentally triggering now. So obviously I do understand the reinforcing feedbacks are present now. It’s the main reason the “CO2 fertilization” effect isn’t really doing much for us. Whatever we gain is immediately offset by increased decay rate. But change the pathway to the LCP and CO2 fertilization actually helps to increase the rate of long term sequestration.

  43. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Red Baron @6, soil absorption of carbon intuitively sounds plausible to me and clearly you have some genuine expertise. However I'm sure I read an article recently that a warming climate actually causes increased microbial activity that actually results in soils releasing CO2? You would need to prove which factor dominates.

  44. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    sailingfree asked

    Doesn't the evaporation - condensation - rain cycle transfer heat from the ocean to the atmosphere?

    Exactly right, sf, sensible heat at the surface is converted into latent heat through evaporation. That heat is then transported upward by convection and released as sensible heat higher up in the atmosphere by condensation, so that part of Jeffrey Middlebrook's question is based on an incorrect understanding of atmospheric heat transport.

  45. Justin Trudeau approves two big oil sands pipeline expansions

    Andy Skuce @18: "Let me say this, if Canada adopts a carbon price above $100, I promise to shut up about banning new pipelines for climate policy reasons."

    I can't see any political way forward to a $100 price on carbon without those pipelines. It's a trade-off.

    From John Ivison (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-liberals-strategy-of-pipeline-approval-with-carbon-pricing-a-winner-with-voters-poll-suggests):

    "But a more interesting statistic emerged when Abacus asked how people would feel if a carbon pricing plan that encouraged a shift toward greater use of clean energy was accompanied by a new pipeline to get Canada’s oil and gas to new markets.

    The result is a potential game-changer: three out of four Canadians would support or accept this shift, including majorities in every region.

    In Alberta, 92 per cent of respondents bought into the idea; in Saskatchewan, the number was 83 per cent. A large majority of Conservative voters was supportive (87 per cent) and 62 per cent of NDP voters said they could go along with this decision.

    Even in Quebec, which has traditionally been hostile to pipelines, two out of three respondents said they would back a shift to renewables accompanied by a new pipeline."

  46. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    The HUGE fish-hook with industrial production models is that while they may have spectacular and essential yields now, they are rapidly destroying the globe's soils. The FAO were predicting only 60 more harvests before they have been wiped out and even that figure's impact is illusionary...it won't be a case of 60 years and 'click' the light goes out, it will be decades of declining output and increasing starvation with all the social disruption that will (and already is) entail.

  47. Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research

    MA Rodger @31, the annual cycles for earlier verions of the UAH TLT were found in the "read me" files.  The average for the UAH v 6 beta5 has a mean of -9.2 C, or 263.9 K.  That is well below the 282.9 K (+8.77 C) quoted by the john warner.  john warner's values are also well above the appoximately -13.5 C mean for the AMSU chanel 4 data that he cites elsewhere for the seasonal cycle.  That makes it something of a mystery as to how he actually obtained the value.  Given that he seems only to have been making a rhetorical point "For all there knowledge global warming believers have they can never answer the simplest questions" - a point that has no basis; the issue seems moot with regard to this discussion. 

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] To all commentators responding to John Warne.

    This charade of a discussion is at an end. John Warner has unfortunately derailed this thread and offtopic discussion here stops now. John believes he can attack climate science with his superior science at any point.

    If this is so strong, then I suggest that he use the "arguments" menu to pick something he believes he has a strong case against and present the science that challenges it on the relevant thread. No sloganeering. Produce data and/or paper in support and leave the rhetoric at the door. I strongly recommend that he reads the science he is attacking first rather than just assuming he knows it based on statements so far. IPCC WG1 is your friend.

    Any discussion of surface versus satellite record goes here. Discussions about source of CO2 go here

  48. Trump and the GOP may be trying to kneecap climate research

    Moderator @ 29,

    There are of course two UAH TLT records as well as RSS TLT.

    The v6.0beta5 (which is not yet released so shouldn't be in use) has an annual cycle with an average well below freezing so the annual averages will also be below freezing. I calculate Dec15 to Nov16 at -8.67ºC. (Note, the value presented by the commenter is only a couple of fat fingers away from this value.)

    RSS TLT would have similar anomaly values. UAH TLTv5.6 has a lower average altitude (about 2km lower) so should have an average above freezing but the +8.77ºC could be a bit high. I've never seen its absolute values quoted for UAHv5.6.

  49. From the eMail Bag: CO2 in the air and oceans

    Nick,

     If you use vertical stacking and polycultures you can almost guarantee increased yields per acre. Productivity is a different issue, that is yields per man hour. No we generally have not succeeded yet in beating the industrial production models there. I would point out though....is that the problem it once was? Don't we have plenty of people capable and willing to work on this planet? It is not the old days where labor shortages were the main priority due to massive wars and famines and we were forced to import cheap labor just to keep up. (slaves from Africa, and Chinese laborers for the railroads...etc.... as examples from my country)

  50. Fake news tries to blame human-caused global warming on El Niño

    Weather Channel Torpedoes Neo Nazi Breitbart’s Climate Lies

Prev  431  432  433  434  435  436  437  438  439  440  441  442  443  444  445  446  Next



The Consensus Project Website

THE ESCALATOR

(free to republish)


© Copyright 2024 John Cook
Home | Translations | About Us | Privacy | Contact Us