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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 23201 to 23250:

  1. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Jim and Digbyu,

    Mark Jacobson and the Solutions Project have documented how 100% of all energy: electrical, transportation and industrial, can be generated using renewable energy (primarily wind, solar and hydro).  All currently manufactured products can be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy.

    Iceland currently generates an excess of electricity using geothermal.  They use the excess electricity to manufacture aluminum, which they export.  They could manufacture whatever they wanted to, but they make the most money from aluminum.  As renewable energy gains more market penetration the carbon content of products will decrease.

    Renewable energy only became cost effective in the last five years or so.  You cannot expect 100% conversion instantly, it takes time to build out a new energy system.   Now that renewables are the cheapest source of new energy, more and more will be built.  If a carbon fee is implemented the switch over will be faster.  Jacobson has demonstrated that the entire economy can be run off renewables.  The question is: can the political will be found to implement this solution before critical damage has been done to the Earth system?

  2. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    Welcome to the States, John.  I'm sure you will do well.

  3. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    Congratulations, John.

  4. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    i wish you all the best hello

  5. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Digby, you might as well ask if anything can still be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy.

  6. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Art Vandelay @7 , you can certainly think of these "gravely skeptical" friends as deniers, morons, and conspiracy theorists - because that is exactly what they are.

    But you are right, to resist calling them that (to their face).  Like the Flat Earthers, they have already decided on their "position" - and no amount of factual evidence will make them change their position.  Don't even try to encourage them to a re-evaluation : since you will be completely wasting your time.

    They are not "skeptical" of the evidence - they are determinedly dismissive of the mountain of evidence which is right in front of them.  They won't listen to you, or to anyone.  If their minds were open to rational re-evaluation of the climate realities, then they would have ceased their denialism long ago.

    If you wish to discuss the many interesting (and grave) aspects of modern-day global warming, then you would be best restricting such conversation to friends who have a genuine scientific way of thinking about the world.

    With "denier" friends, keep the conversation to football.  And don't even mention the weather !!!   They will eventually have to change their minds, but it sounds like they are stubborn enough to hold out for 20 years - until the day comes when they will suddenly "re-invent history" and declare that they had never really doubted all the climate scientists : and that your memory is faulty !

  7. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    I think a light has gone on!  I'm not interested in comparing EVs versus petrol- and diesel-fuelled vehicles, I'm interested in knowing if EVs can still be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy.  Does anybody have a definitive answer?

  8. Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class

    In the USA many college level teachers are part-timers called adjunct faculty. (I am adjunct at a local community college, adjuncts are also common at local 4 year colleges).  Adjuncts are at the bottom of the feeding scale at colleges.  It is not unusual for more than 25% of the classes to be taught by adjuncts.  All the students call me professor and I doubt that they know who is adjunct and who is full time.  Harris was probably hired as an adjunct professor.  The system is very exploitative, adjuncts can only support themselves if they have an alternate full time jos (I teach at a local high school).  I know several people who are trying to survive on adjunct pay and it is very much a struggle for them.

  9. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    We use our VW e-up! for all journeys up to about 65 miles round trip (giving us a safe margin and no range problems in 2 years and 9,000 miles).

    An advantage of the VW EV models is that they can charge from an ordinary domestic power point - drawing about 2.2 KW (adding about 8 miles range per hour of charging). During daylight hours in the (English) summer our solar panels often produce more than this, and since it is easy to choose when we charge we are literally running on sunshine for much of the time.

    The good feeling this gives us is worth a great deal, adding to the sheer delight of driving this lovely little vehicle. (Motoring Which's 1916 Best Buy City Car - although we are semi-rural).

  10. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    ubrew12 @13, he certainly has an interesting map:

    However, the Australian government's Green Vehicle Guide gives different figures, with following Fuel life cycle values for all electrical vehicles:

    BMWi3 121g/km

    Mitsubishi iMiEV 127 g/km

    Renault Kango ZE 146 g/km

    Nissan Leaf 163 g/km

    Tesla Model S 174-186 g/km

    Holden (GM) Volt 127 g/km

    All of these are substantially lower than the 222 g/gm shown in his map.  That may be because his data is at least three years old (based on comments), and the mix of grid electricity sources has changed, or because the Australian government allows for domestic solar in the mix (which he excludes), or because his estimates of charge used per kilometer driven are too high.

    For what it is worth, the figure above are comparable to the most efficient petrol driven vehicles, and inferior to hybrids.

    That being said, in Queensland it is possible to purchase 100% renewable energy from the grid at a surcharge.  Using that option, your electrical vehicle will return Fuel life cycle values far better than even hybrids, and still cost less for a charge than it does to fill up a tank.  Unfortunately they will not return 0 g/km as the "renewable" energy includes energy from waste disposal incinerators.  Given that, the best option for urban driving in Australia is to purchase a fully electric vehicle and tailor your electricity plan.  That not only gives you the lowest fuel life cycle efficiency, but creates a positive economic incentive to increase renewable sources.  At the same time, it helps bring down the cost of electrical vehicles.

  11. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    I sorta trust this guy, who says if your grid power is coal-heavy (China, India, Australia, S Africa) your electric car is getting 25-30 mpg (us) if it were a gasoline engine, and in UK, Germany, Japan, and Italy more like 45-50 mpg (us).  In low carbon economies, like France, Brazil, Switzerland, and Norway, more like 100 mpg (us).  In Colorado, 30mpg, while in Caifornia, 70 mpg.  This seems similar to calcs by OnePlanet@1.  So, the advantage as economies (hopefully) decarbonize is apparent, along with the electric grid storage advantage noted by Dunkerson@5.

  12. One Planet Only Forever at 13:35 PM on 7 September 2016
    Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    ric@10.

    You may have a magic touch with your Leaf, or are just not driving fast and never drive in cold weather.

    According to the latest promotional material from Nissan Canada the maximum performance expected is up to 172 km with the 30 kWh battery = 17.5 kWh/100 km (that would be performance without needing heat or air conditioning with minimal acceleration during the trip and a reasonably low speed).

    However, I have just seen that the latest Tesla website indicates longer ranges for their Tesla S than previous years (the Tesla sites previously showed that 18 kWh/100 km was the best expected performance). It indicates performance as good as 11.0 kWh/100 km for their cars at 70 km/h at 20 C and warmer (not running the heat or air). At 70 km/h but -10 C with heat on the performance drops to 15.5 kWh/ 100 km. At 100 km/k and -10C the performance drops to 20 kWh/100 km. And here in Alberta we can drive 110 km/h (legally 110 and many people choose to drive closer to 120). At 110 km/h and 20 C the Tesla will do 19 kWh/100 km. At 110 km/h and -10 C the Tesla S will do 22 kWh/100km.

    And here is a reality check. In Alberta (and many other places) the winters are often colder than -10 C (In Alberta every winter is almost certain to have several days where the daytime high is colder than -20 C), temperatures that Tesla has not included on their website feature.

    So you could be getting 12.5 kWh/100 km as long as you never drive faster than 80 km/h (never go on a highway trip or use a freeway), and never use the heater, and your Nissan Leaf is as aerodynamic and technically efficient as a Tesla S.

  13. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    I have many friends who are gravely sceptical of the global warming hypothesis. however, I resist from lebelling them "deniers",  "morons", "conspiracy theorists" etc, because in my experience that's more likely to cement their denial position in the long term, than it is to encourage a reevaluation.

  14. Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class

    Tom Curtis:

    It may be common in colloquial usage, but the definitions I use are typical of life in academia in Canada - albeit based on my own personal knowledge from 20 years ago when I was active in the system.

    If you look at the job postings linked at the Canadian Association of University Teachers web page, you'll see that tenure-track or tenure-stream positions mention "professor" (usually assistant) or "faculty", while other postings may mention "instructor" or "lecturer" positions. I didn't read every ad, but I was hard-pressed to find one that used "professor" that wasn't tenure-track.

    In the department I was in, sessionals and instructors did not participate in the department's faculty meetings, and did not have any of the obligations of committee work, student supervision, etc. that were expected of "professors".

  15. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    In the sea of misery brought on by these studies one comforting eddy of thought is that eventually it will turn around, eventually the climate science will be widely accepted and more and more, strong action will be taken. There are so many examples of where society has changed including slavery, women’s right to vote and views on race and smoking. Last night on the news (Australia) there was an item on a woman who chained herself in the House of Commons in 1907 protesting for the right to vote. She was sent to jail for a month, but now there is a plaque to honour the event. While being much more complicated, our response to Climate Change is another example of societal change that will happen.

    Climate change is an aspect of the exponential growth that is happening globally in so many areas. Another comforting thought is the exponential disruption that is happening with renewable energy and electric (and hydrogen?) cars. The societal change and the technology change go hand in hand and reinforce each other. So even though the US is going slightly backward in these studies the media and fossil fuel companies promoting denial are trying to hold back the tide (with sea level rise behind it) and it will become futile. And at some point in the future we will look back at the climate activists of today in praise and thanks like we do the woman in the House of Commons.

  16. Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class

    Bob Loblaw @42, Harris is referred to as a professor in the rate your professor website, and in the Canadian magazine, MacLean's.  I would say, therefore, it is quite open under Canadian usage to refer to him as such.  That is, referring to Professor Harris is not an error.  Neither, however, is it mandatory under Canadian usage, given that the CASS report does not directly refer to him as such (although it does contain a quotation referring to him as a professor).

    To the moderator:  The link to the CASS report in the first sentence of the OP is now dead.  The report can currently be found here:

    http://junkscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/cassreportclimatechangedenialintheclassroom.pdf  

  17. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Jim Eager @8

    I have no idea what emissions are involved in the manufacture of any car, let alone an EV.  I was just curious about the piece I read concerning embodied emissions.  You say it's a red herring.  Is that because manufacturer's are able to transition to zero-carbon methods of manufacture?  I can imagine that should be possible to a certain extent.  I'm not sure, however, about mining of materials and transport of parts by sea, for example.  To put it another way, I don't understand what's going on and would appreciate enlightenment!

  18. Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class

    Moderator:

    No, I'd go with Terry11's statement that Harris was never a professor. Canada may differ from the U.S. - in Canada, the title "professor" is usually reserved for people that have been hired as full-time employees of the university, and generally into tenure-track positions. There are usually three stages:

    1. Assistant professor. New, young recruits, not (yet) tenured.
    2. Associate professor. A promotion usually coincident with getting tenure. Typically takes 5-6 years.
    3. Professor (or "Full professor"). Another promotion after a period as associate professor, based on distinguished research performance. [Teaching only matters at smaller universities...] Some professors never reach this stage.

    Outside of the tenure-track system, you can get sessional lecturers. They can be hired as full-time staff (usually in the form of a sabbatical replacement), or on a per-course basis. The expectation is teaching, not research. Young academics may get stuck in the sessional loop for a few years, waiting for tenure-track positions to open up - and can't advance their research careers due to the teaching demands, which makes them less competitive compared to fresh meat recent PhD graduates.

    Harris was a sessional lecturer, replacing Tim Patterson (who was a professor).

  19. Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans

    Prof X @276 fails to provide his reference for his claim of deep Earth degassing of CO2 of approx 600 million tonnes of CO2 per annum, and nor is a recent discussion of global geophysical degassing rates evidents from Burton's list of publications.  In any event, the 600 million tonnes figure is a reduction from Burton's prior estimate (2013) of 937 million tonnes of CO2 per annum from all deep sources, discussed by me @256 (July, 2014) above.  If Burton indeed has a new estimate of approx 600 million tonnes, that would be a reduction from his prior estimate, which would spoil Prof X's narrative.

    To add slight confusion, Burton does have a 2014 conference paper which estimates a global flux of 1,800 million tonnes of CO2 based on new measurements of CO2 flux (still only 5% of anthropogenic emissions), but that estimate does not appear to have made it into a journal article.  Further, as more recent direct measurements of CO2 flux from a volcano contradict the claims heightened flux from Burton's indirect measurements, the premise of the 2014 conference paper estimate appears to have been falsified.

  20. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    I meant to say conservatives are more sceptical of climate change science than liberals. Must proof read.

  21. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    So we have this situation where conservatives are more sceptical of climate science than republicans. We should note America as a whole also appears to be more sceptical of climate change science than other countries.

    This is a complex equation with many likely contributing factors starting with vested interests in fossil fuels of course. America is a land that worships individual rights and corporate rights above community rights, so people may see fossil fuel companies as being somewhat beyond reproach and owning a large gas guzzler as a right. Conservatives may feel this more strongly than liberals.

    We have psychological reasons for climate scepticism such as cognitive bias and feeling that one’s world view is under threat. Conservatives crave stability (not a bad trait) but something like global warming threatens this on many levels so perhaps they go into denial.

    Conservatives tend to distrust big government, and government rules. Again some of this is healthy to a point, but some things can only be fixed with government rules, climate change being one of them. Sometimes markets don’t provide all the answers, and this complex issue has to be faced.

    Conservatives also follow authority, and will therefore be closely following what leaders in their Party promote. Liberals are more anti authoritarian. If the leaders of the Republican Party are climate denialists, others will follow, so lobbyists target these leaders and congress people.

    The media play a part. For some reason the right wing media are often climate denialists and also very inflammatory, emotive, and outspoken. This gets an audience because people are attracted to inflammatory statements. Rush Limbaugh comes to mind. This may be partly driven by right wing attitudes, and partly by a desire to simply get ratings and lift profitability. The Liberal media seems slightly more low key, and measured in its style, for whatever reason.

    And of course conservatives own plenty of the media and ownership is control. They seem to feel balance and scientific data comes second to promoting ideological positions.

    However much of all this is becoming more entrenched, and it’s hard to see how it will change.

  22. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    Digby Scorgie @ 17

    I have reached similar conclusions. I used to stress a lot over denialist rhetoric, however I do this less now. It's not good for the blood pressure.

    However I take an interest as a semi retired guy, and I loathe misleading denialist comments and enjoy responding to these and debating the issues. It's healthy to do this as long as you keep it all in perspective. 

    Even though we broadly know what needs to be done to keep warming at low levels, getting the world organised to do this is a huge task, and it may be impossible politically. So its not worth bursting a blood vessell in worry.

    I think it would require something dramatic like total collapse of a large part of Antracticas ice sheets or an entire decade of massive temperature records dwarfing last years. Even this might not be enough. You cant save the world from its own stupidity.

  23. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Electric vehicle efficiency ranges from 20 to 25 kWh/100 km?

    I'm driving a Nissan Leaf since february:12,5 kWh/100 km

    In Augustus my solar panels produced enough for 5000 km

  24. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

     I would have thought climate acceptance would be as inexorable as, well, sea level rise.  This result shows how a self-reinforcing system of belief can be purchased by deep-pockets.  Also, why those pockets would 'go dark' so as not to be revealed.  Recently, it was found that Senators in America who voted against an amendment to a bill that read 'climate change is real and human activity significantly contributes to climate change' were receiving five times as much as Senators who voted for that amendment in fossil fuel contributions.  Here: compelling evidence that money is paying for what Republicans believe in America.  Yet, more remarkable, this clear evidence of betrayal got zero play-time in our Mass Media.  I suspect the kind of money Big Fossils can throw at denial means it can aim 'thirty pieces of silver' at everybody.  All Nature can throw in response is six feet of sea level rise.  So for Science believers, we're in purgatory, stuck between a fossil rock and an ocean hard-place.

  25. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    As we transition to renewa le energy in our grids, less and less of the "EMBODIED ENERGY" "embodied energy" of an electric car is from fossil fuel

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] The SkS Comments Policy prohibits the use of all caps.

  26. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    One Planet is correct that the generation mix where you live is important. While his example of Alberta generates more than 50% from Coal, Ontario generates most of its electricity from nuclear (~60%) and hydro-elecrtic (~24%), with a few natural gas peaking plants (~10%), which are intended to reduce occasional peak-use coal-generated imports from the US midwest. Solar and wind combined are bit players (~6%).

    Digby's CO2 emissions of manufacturing (and recycling) are a red herring already dealt with.

    Ogemaniac's example of two-car families is a large part of the problem in the first place, while the occasional need for greater range and/or cargo capacity is what car sharing and rental companies are designed to solve.

    The fact is we're stuck with the infrastructure we have until we build it's replacement. If you are waiting for perfect you will be waiting forever.

  27. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    As if there is any shortage of measurable, repeatable methods and evidence employed in the study of the physical science of climate. But then this article isn't about the physical science of climate, it is abut the social science of climate science denial. I find it compelling that Prof-X can't tell the difference between physical and social science.

  28. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Where I live, almost all of our electricity comes from coal powered generators. In this case a hybrid vehicle makes more sense than an electric. 

  29. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    I find it compelling... that a scientific community spends so much effort, money and time focusing on the "Political Demographic" that speaks against the scientific Theory they purport, rather than on the proving the science through measurable, repeatable methods.  "Methinks he doth protest too much"... when you spend all your time berating and labeling entire sections of the general public, rather than backing up radical doomsday claims with actual non-fabricated science, you certainly look guilty of trying to influence outcomes for your own political ends.  It is such a shame that our scientific community has allowed money, greed, power and funding cloud our real purpose... searching for understanding.

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] This comment has been stricken because it constitutes sloganeering which is prohibied by the SkS Comments Policy. Please read and adhere to this site's comment policy.

  30. Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans

    I enjoy it so when the agenda (funding) driven science of climatology states so much they know that just isn't so... or at least isn't all of the story.   (snip)

    The last twenty years have seen huge steps in our understanding of how, and how much CO2 leaves the deep Earth. But at the same time, a disturbing pattern has been emerging.

    In 1992, it was thought that volcanic degassing released something like 100 million tons of CO2 each year. Around the turn of the millennium, this figure was getting closer to 200. The most recent estimate, released this February, comes from a team led by Mike Burton, of the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology – and it’s just shy of 600 million tons. It caps a staggering trend: A six-fold increase in just two decades.

    These inflating figures, I hasten to add, don't mean that our planet is suddenly venting more CO2.

    Humanity certainly is; but any changes to the volcanic background level would occur over generations, not years. The rise we’re seeing now, therefore, must have been there all along: the daunting outline of how little we really know about volcanoes is beginning to loom large.

    Moderator Response:

    [RH] Read the comments policy for why you were snipped here.

    For the remainder of your comment, please cite the actual research instead of just recounting. People here will want to check your sources.

    Also, note that annual human emissions of CO2 are 30GT. That's about 30,000 million tons.

  31. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    CBDunkerson: How about some references and data? Sorry, but claims that EVs running on electicity generated predominantly from coal are comparable to ICE vehicles sounds like spin from a vested interest.

  32. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    The 'power plant CO2' and 'manufacturing CO2' issues are both red herrings. Certainly we should continue to improve CO2 emissions in both areas, but even if we didn't neither would be a valid argument against electric vehicles.

    As Glenn noted, manufacture of all cars involves CO2 emissions. The primary difference being that electric cars replace the internal combustion engine with a larger rechargeable battery pack. The primary source of CO2 emissions from car manufacture is due to the use of steel (commonly made by heating iron oxide and carbon, with CO2 as a byproduct)... and the internal combustion engine is a huge block of steel. Nothing in the electric vehicle battery pack comes close to requiring similar emissions. However, since many of the materials used in rechargeable batteries are currently mined in China, using coal power, the net emissions come out about the same (unless of course you get your steel from China too).

    On power plants OPOF's rough estimate calcs above showed coal and natural gas powered EVs in roughly the same range as ICEs. More detailed studies are not far different... 100% coal powered EVs are towards the high end of ICE emissions, but for most of the world EVs get their power from sources that put them on par with the most fuel efficient ICEs and in places with high renewable energy generation there is just no comparison... EV emissions can be as much as two orders of magnitude less than ICEs.

    However, the biggest reason that these comparisons are bunk is that they ignore the function of the EV battery. The more EVs are sold the more large rechargeable batteries there are connected to the electricity grid... and the more short term fluctuations in power (such as might be seen by wind and solar power) cease to matter. In short, EVs make wind and solar power more economically viable. Thus pushing the power industry towards cleaner power sources. An effect which completely dwarfs their manufacturing and operational emissions... even if those weren't already on par or better than ICE emissions.

  33. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    A car that only works for you 87% of the time is not going to work for a lot of people. It certainly wouldn't work for my family. We use a pretty common strategy (I think) of one small, fuel-efficient vehicle and one larger vehicle with poor mileage. Can an electric replace either? No! It can't replace the Prius because range is critical for this vehicle as most of the miles come from road trips far beyond an electric's range. And it can't replace the truck because the entire purpose of the truck is to haul stuff.

    The problem I see with electrics is that they leave a gap in a two-card household. If your other car is small and fuel efficient, you have no ability to haul. If your other car is heavy duty, you have no vehicle that can cheaply take you long distances. Additionally, if you are in a one-car household, an electric would leave you with both of these gaps rather than just one, as a non-electric would.

  34. An update on methane emissions from fracking (in the US)

    "According to a weekend report in The Wall Street Journal, 85% of Texans support expanded renewable generation and only 9% opposed continued expansion."  Read More   

    People are getting the message even in states that are historically pro oil and gas.

  35. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    There was a time in my life — less than a decade ago — when climate-change deniers annoyed the hell out of me.  But in recent years I have come to the conclusion that social inertia (see Bart Verheggen's article on inertia) is so great that no significant mitigation will occur before the effects of climate change become so damaging as to wreck our global civilization.  Note the word "global".  I'm sure there will remain local civilizations struggling along in various privileged parts of the globe.

    The aforementioned change of attitude has had a calming effect on me.  I consider myself now to be just an interested observer monitoring humanity's progress towards collapse.  I recommend it.  You'll no longer get hot under the collar when some idiot spouts nonsense about the global warming hoax.  Sit back, relax, and smile indulgently — while thinking to yourself, "Just you wait, dummy!"

    Oh, there's just one problem.  I'm an old man.  If I live as long as my father, I might just be lucky enough to see an ice-free Arctic in September and the global temperature anomaly nudging two degrees.  If you are younger, dear reader, all I can say is, "Tough luck, mate!"

  36. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Digby.

    Most cars are considered to have an embodied energy content equal to severla years of driving. Electric cars would be no different. Whether electric cars particularly have a higher content, dunno.

    The point hopefully is that as we transition to zero-carbon technologies, the production processes behind car (and everything else) manufacturing also become low/zero carbon.

  37. Welcome to Skeptical Science

    tommyb86

    Further to Tom's last graph, that big change during world war 2 has been identified quite clearly. Most SST records were taken by UK & US ships in the early period of the record. The UK used mainly the bucket method while the US used engine inlets. During WWII the proportion of ships contributing SST records switched to mainly US ships. The transition out of that has been narrowed down to Aug 1945.

    Additionally, there does seem to be indications that there was a general warming in higher latitudes during the 20's & 30's. So the spike is quite likely to be a mix of several factors including climate and instrumentation.

    Contrast the different latitude bands from GISS:



    Why the bigger spike in the tropics/southern extratropics? That is mainly ocean, and the biggest part of that ocean is the Pacific. The big stomping ground of the US Navy in WWII.

  38. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Electric cars might not emit CO2 when driven, and electricity from renewable sources can be used to recharge them, but how much CO2 is emitted in their manufacture?  I have read elsewhere that there are significant emissions involved in the manufacture of an electric car.

  39. Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup

    RedBaron @71, I will bow to your superior knowledge of farming.

  40. Welcome to Skeptical Science

    tommyb86 @14, the comment of mine linked to by the moderator (TD) is actually a comment about the spike in temperatures in the contiguous USA in the 1930s.  Given that the contiguous USA represents approx 2% of global surface area, that is not a major factor in the 1940s spike in global temperatures to which I think you refer.

    With respect to the peak in global temperatures, there are three long term trends contributing to global warming from the early to mid-twentieth century.  First, the rise in CO2, and anthropogenic forcings generally continued at a fairly steady pace until the mid 1960s, after which it accelerated significantly.  This is likely to have contributed about a third of the warming.  Second, following Krakatoa (1883) and a series of smaller volcanic eruptions in the late 19th and very early twentieth century, Earth had no large tropical euruptions until the eruption of Augung (1963-64).  This is possibly the largest single factor in the early twentieth century trend (but note the differences in the reconstructed forcing histories).

     

    Thirdly, there was a appreciable trend in solar activity from about 1910 to the peak in 1955.

    These three together with ENSO may be sufficient to account for the temperature peak in the 1940s, although the data does not match models based on these forcings plus ENSO alone perfectly over this interval (example).  That may be due to insufficient weight attached to Black Carbon as a forcing (with the BC forcing being calculated for its effects on snow, but not for its overall effects in an interval where those effects were in some regions sufficient to allow the Peppered Moth to switch almost completely from a light to a dark form).  It may be due to some residual effect from ocean variability not covered by ENSO.  Or it may (and I think this is most likely) be due to errors in the temperature data.  In particular, SST data showed a great reduction in the proportion of temperatures collected by buckets (as in most commercial ships) to those collected by engine manifolds (as in most military ships) in the 1940s, with a concurent significant change in the regions most frequently travelled (and hence for which we have temperature data):

    It needs only a slight error in one of the adjustments to create a large artifact in the warming in the 1940s.  That possibility is ably argued here.

    The upshot is that the peak in 1940s temperatures is at least partly understood just from basic forcings, but we still have some way to go before we understand it fully.  Further, given what we know, the possibility that the specific 1940s peak (as opposed to the 1910s-1960s trend) is an artifact relating to the great changes in temperature collection methods during WW2, but possibly also due to some unknown or under appreciated climate forcing, or form of internal variability.

  41. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    Haze @15

    I basically agree.  Most of the time warmists should be calm and measured, but sometimes they need to go on the attack and call things for what they really are as long as its carefully crafted and sticks to issues and what people have said, as opposed to name calling, or dreaming up wild claims that become hard to substantiate.

    I do have sympathy for climate scientists though. They are in a catch 22 situation because if they become too outspoken they get accused of politicising things, or may be worried that negative publicity could damage their career prospects. 

    However the sceptics are walking over the warmists. I think people like Tamino get the balance right from what I hear. He is reasoned and measured, but criticises strongly when required and doesn't take any nonsense from people.

    Nobody likes arrogant characters, but neither do we have much respect for people who retreat into their shell and get walked all over or try too hard to be over polite.

    Of course talk back radio shock jocks go much further and manipulate emotion and say outrageous nonsense because it gets ratings. Their only job description is "get an audience" so they push things to the limits. It's very frustrating for the climate research community.

    Conservatives and republicans are perhaps more sceptical of climate change science than liberals, as conservatives don't particularly always like change, and climate change threatens that yearning for stability, so they go into denial about the whole thing. Combating climate change also requires government rules, and conservatives are perhaps more sceptical of big government than liberals. Of course excessive government power is always a concern, but it's hard to see how we resolve the situation without things like regulatory controls on emissions or ets schemes etc. 

  42. Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class

    Mr. Tom Harris had a stint at Carleton University after which MacLeans published an article called:
    “Professor criticized for course denying climate change”
    Tom Harris is not a professor and never has been one. MacLeans should publish a disclaimer to inform readers of this egregious mistake, since only highly educated academics with PhD’s deserve this title, not Mr. Harris (who has an MA in Engineering).
    His expertise in anthropogenic climate change - none.
    Mr. Tom Harris lectured for a short time at Carleton University before he was unceremoniously removed for teaching his anti-anthropogenic climate change rhetoric. MacLeans also doesn’t mention that Mr. Tom Harris and several organizations he has been affiliated with, have been funded by fossil fuel industries…clearly a conflict of interests.
    For MacLeans to call Mr. Harris a professor is a travesty. A professor has the highest educational rank at universities and research institutions. They are experts in their areas of expertise and are accomplished and recognized academics. They are scholars with doctorate degrees (typically Ph.D. degrees) who teach in universities. They conduct original research and teach grads and undergrads in areas of their expertise. They publish advanced original research in peer reviewed journals in their fields. A professor may also serve as a public intellectual, offering opinions to media and in other forums on current issues and other complex matters that require expert illumination, which Mr. Harris endeavours to do but fails miserably at, owing to his lack of education on the subject and financial interests in the fossil fuel industry. After much work, a professor may become tenured which allows him or her academic freedom. It is beneficial for society and academy in the long run if scholars are at liberty to examine, hold, and advance controversial views without fear of dismissal, however it must be emphasized that only tenured professors are afforded this freedom since they have the education, peer reviewed publications, extensive experience and overall knowledge required to intellectually select and teach such materials.
    Mr. Harris has never put in the several years of education required to become a professor. He has never put in the hard work and time required for research or writing advanced scholarly studies that are published in peer reviewed journals. Mr. Tom Harris opted to teach controversial ideas, without the required education, peer reviewed publications, experience or overall knowledge. Doing so is allowed only to tenured professors for reasons already discussed.

     

     

     

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Note that in North America, "professor" just means any university teacher, quite different to usage in British/Australasian unis.

  43. Welcome to Skeptical Science

    Just a point of interest; and I realise this question has probably been answered previously, is there a consensus view on the possible cause(s) of the average global temp spike during the early 1940's?

    Moderator Response:

    [TD] Tom Curtis gave an explanation in a comment.

    [PS] See also IPCC Ar5 report, pg 887 ("Early 20th Century Warming").

  44. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    nigelj@13 "However it wouldn’t hurt for warmist climate scientists to sometimes show their anger at the way certain sceptics blatantly lie. We are all human and anger is normal and sometimes justified".  Absolutely.  Alrthough I understand and appreciate the need for reasoned and meticulous debate, it does mean the playing field  is left wide open for climate deniers to occupy and spruik their wares.  That is one possible reason, in my opinion, for the fall in the number of Republican voters who accept that climate change is human caused.  Why doesn't, for example,  Skeptical Science, attack Watts or Nova pointing out and highlighting their erroneous statements and conclusions and  sins of omission?  Tamino's Open Mind is the only blog I can think of that does go on the attack and he does often get a fairly good audience response

     

    Paul W "Light on logic or reason but that is just not needed in politics. Passion and a rightful quest drives politics. No need to look too carefully at the details as it spoils the show."  Entirely agree.  Surely there must be a way for climate scientists to inject some passion into the debate.  I do hope so for if Donald Trump becomes POTUS I think we are well and truly  (fill in your own choice of word or words).

  45. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    Haze @12 I think the reason that WUWT and Jo Nova are popular has been mentioned. They appeal to a tribal political mentality about emotions and not about data or logic. In politics it's talked about playing the race card as being the reason for electoral success in Australia.

    Playing emotional cards is well know for drawing big crouds. Not only do people get to read what pleases them but they get a sense of beloning against an opposing tribe. The 1939 - 45 period was a big example of this kind of emotionally driven period. Sense and logic draw a smaller croud. 

    The capture of the Republican vote by Trump was another example of the use of identity and emotions where logic was just not allowed to get in the way of a good set of feelings.

    Talk back radio also draws big crouds based on the emotions of conflict and belonging. There are lots of pent up emotions that can be ventilated drawing in large numbers. Logic just gets in the way of mass passion.

    I have worked as a volunteer in counselling for many groups over 3 decades. People love being around a storming or sounding off person who is sounding rightfully angry or resentful. Like watching the football. The logic of emotions is different from the logic of ideas. Its only beginning to be fleshed out scientifically but advertisers understand it well. Its quite divorced from data and theory. To be able to vent emotions is a "sweet pill" for a very large number of people.

    I think the Roman's had something to say about the uses of pigs and the circus.

    Jo Nova and WUWT are the contrarian equivalent to Roman pigs and the circus. Great for passion. Light on logic or reason but that is just not needed in politics. Passion and a rightful quest drives politics. No need to look too carefully at the details as it spoils the show.

  46. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    Why do some climate sceptical websites get a good audience? Firstly we have some climate change sceptics that make very silly claims, or make inflammatory statements (boldly or subtly), or blame the whole thing as being a socialist conspiracy. They are usually writers or meteorologists rather than actual climate research scientists.

    This is classic demagoguery. It gets an audience, which is part of the reason they do this. People are attracted to provocative statements, even if they are only subtly provocative. The mainstream media want an audience because ratings matter and drive profitability, so the media “indulge” the sceptics.

    In comparison the “warmist” climate scientists are mainly more reasoned and measured. They have to be because science is reasoned and actual climate scientists have to be careful how they word things. However reasoned and qualified statements on why we are altering the climate become complex and nuanced, and so don’t get such a big audience.Tom Curtis is right anyone can be educated on the basics of climate change, but the challenge is holding their attention for more than one minute.

    Nevertheless I think “warmists” should stay with a measured, calm commentary. This is the only way to reach open minded moderates. The older sceptics are mainly so set in their ways they can’t be reached no matter what you say.

    Terms like climate catastrophe don’t help in my view. However it wouldn’t hurt for warmist climate scientists to sometimes show their anger at the way certain sceptics blatantly lie. We are all human and anger is normal and sometimes justified.

    Young people tend to be less sceptical about climate change. This is because they get taught the science at school in a reasoned way, mostly without inflammatory emotive claims about socialiist conspiracies. Of course theres nothing wrong with them being told that about 3% of climate scientists have sceptical views, provided young people are given the logical tools to evaluate the validity of those views.

     

  47. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    Sorry PaulW I'm not being clear.  I don't care a jot about the appeal Watts and Nova have. What I am trying to do is find out why they have it.   For example, at the moment Nova is  commenting on a paper published in Nature in 2015 entitled "Global wheat yield may drop as temperature rises'.  This has received, at the time I write this, 110 comments.  The question is why?  Why does Skeptical Science almost never attract anywhere near that level of reader participation when it discusses scientific articles?    I gave some possible suggestions  but from the responses I got from you and chriskozit it is clear  I haven't made my aim plain.  Or is there, perhaps,  an element of motivated cognition involved?

  48. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    Haze @10 I understand that you are wanting to discuss the great appeal the WUWT and JoNova have on the ideologically driven excitment of the contrarian cause. We have had climate change accepted by Republicans before the Al Gore movie that "Red Flagged" the issue making contrarian issue like anti communism a partisan issue. We have famous Climate Scientists state that they are Republicans and the carbon fee dividend idea of James Hansen is written in terms of Republican sentiments of smaller government with all money returned to the people to stimulate the economy. All good Republican sentiments.

    You raise the elitist issue "Or are Real Climate and Skeptical Science seen as being run by elitists who not receptive to and dismissive of the views of "ordinary" Americans and Australians?" I'm not an untrained member of the public so I cant tell. I do have experence with a wide set of lobbists on another issue where after the Al Gore movie a wave of climate denial swept accross the good Christian members like a dose of the flu. There "your an athiest scientist" attitude at myself became spiked with climate conspiracy and "your not one of us as you worry about the climate issue that God will protect us from". Similar non sense attitudes were apparent. Mentioning that the modern Popes saw no difference between science and the work of God did not register as they were protestants. The dog whissle had been blown and their owner had call the flock home.

    It was just tribal politics. Whos in and who is out. Part of their identity and not able to be spoken about.

    The fossil fuel lobby own these people. It seems cut and dried. Getting minds to start to question requires from my experience "a relationship of trust". I think that you trying to point to this element as though its missing from SkSci and Real Climate. These site have my trust due to the way they use logic and data. 

    The Republicans who oppose climate science use ideology as their definition point for trust. What can be done about that? Is a good question. They are not being reached in the way you reach Scientists or people who use reason.

  49. Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds

    scaddenp @5  You comment: "Haze, I am not quite sure what your point is. That people are stupid? Dont want believe unwelcome facts?"   I prefer not to comment on your first question and to answer yes to your second. In the report the following comment was made:  "The sociologists say one major reason why attempts to better communicate the realities of climate change to conservatives have failed is down to “motivated cognition” — described as the tendency for people to only accept information that reinforces their existing political beliefs and their views on the world."

    From the coomments by PaulW@8 and chriskoz@9 "motovated cognition" could well be  present at Skeptical Science.

     PaulW says" the pseudoscience in your post @3 is the simple giving of reality to the popular misconseptions of the poorly climate science educated as if cultural dominance (in the MSM pseudoscience is the dominant culture, where frequent articles from climate scientists are dismissed) makes it real" 

    What I actually wrote was :"It is also perhaps relevant that, for example, WUWT and JoNova attract far more respondents than do Skeptical Science and Real Climate."  That doesn't make any comment on the content of these blogs just that Watts and Nova attract more respondents than Skeptical Science and Real Climate.  That is easily determinable fact .  That Paul W chooses to totally misinterpret what I wrote seems a clear case of motivated cognition.    

     

    chriskoz @9 says 'With the benefit of the doubt, it looks as suggestions posted @3 can be read as the questions of a person ignorant on the subject. Which is fine: everyone can be ignorant about certain aspects of reality until they learn the facts. Now, that you've learned the facts, and understood how far off the mark suggestions @3 are, you should not ask such questions ever again, unless you want to be called a pseudoscientist or more tivially a denier of reality."

    The questions I posed had absolutely nothing to do with the science of climate change and everything to do with the selling of climate change to the public, which is what the article is all about.  So when commenting on an apparent failure of marketing why  am I called a pseudoscientist?  Another clear example of motivated cognition.

     And by the way chriskoz, my comment "provide a shorter and more punchy piece on why pursuing the lowering of CO2 emissions is not going to lead to penury for the workers."  is clearly a statement not a question and doesn't require answers.  I cannot comprehend why you regarded as a question.  Motivated cognition again?

     

     

     

     

    if  Paul W @8  The sociologists say one major reason why attempts to better communicate the realities of climate change to conservatives have failed is down to “motivated cognition” — described as the tendency for people to only accept information that reinforces their existing political beliefs and their views on the world

    PaulW@8 Haze @7 Clearly I have completely failed in my attempt to address possibilities for the fall in acceptance of climate change by Republication, You say: "pseudoscience in your post @3 is the simple giving of reality to the popular misconseptions of the poorly climate science educated as if cultural dominance (in the MSM pseudoscience is the dominant culture, where frequent articles from climate scientists are dismissed) makes it real".

    Whatever your take on the words I used let me state clearly the message I was trying to get across is that denier blogs get more traffic than climate science blogs That is a statement of fact not some attempt to push the messager of these b logs and asking both why that and what could be done to combat it.

  50. Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural

    He's back. Talk at University College London on July 18, 2016 so the "1000frolly" shill thing says. Can anybody tell me where Murry Salby gets this "Thermally-induced component of atmospheric CO2" graph he presents. I want to find the source and ponder it. Searching those phrases on the internet and sks isn't yielding any relevant results.

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