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Comments 2401 to 2450:
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Bob Loblaw at 04:57 AM on 24 March 2023Gas stoves pose health risks. Are gas furnaces and other appliances safe to use?
I was going to wait and see if David-acct wanted to defend his calculations and claims of errors in the paper, but Michael has advanced the issue.
Looking at the original paper, they state in the abstract:
Effect sizes previously reported by meta-analyses for current asthma (Odds Ratio = 1.34, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.12–1.57) were utilized in the PAF estimations.
An Odds Ratio of 1.34 means that there is a 34% increase in the likelihood of getting asthma if a child is exposed to a gas stove (versus not). The Odds Ratio is the number that you need for RR, in their equation that calculates PAF:
PAF = {p × (RR − 1 )} / {p × ( RR − 1) + 1}
where p is the proportion of households with children exposed to gas stoves and RR is the relative risk of developing asthma given exposure to gas stoves.
When you stick in RR= 1.34 and appropriate values for p for Illinois and Florida (0.791 and 0.091), you get the PAF values in the paper (0.211 and 0.03 respectively).
So, I am not seeing any "simple math computational errors" in the paper.
Over to you, David-acct.
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michael sweet at 04:48 AM on 24 March 2023Gas stoves pose health risks. Are gas furnaces and other appliances safe to use?
My calculation is slightly off. The actual asthma rates due to gas stoves would be a little higher.
I never accept calculations by amateurs on line, even my own.
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michael sweet at 02:28 AM on 24 March 2023Gas stoves pose health risks. Are gas furnaces and other appliances safe to use?
David-Acct,
In post 1 You say:
"The second obvious weakness in the study are simple math computational errors. For example gas stove use in Pennsylvania is 79% while florida, the gas stove use is only 9%. The difference in the rate of asthma is approx 1% (8.5% vs 7.3%). If the 12% causation was a reasonable estimate, then the difference in asthma rates would be much larger. 6-10%."
Bob Loblaw shows that the paper actually says:
"We found that 12.7% (95% CI = 6.3–19.3%) of current childhood asthma in the US is attributable to gas stove use."
That would mean that gas stoves increase the asthma rate in Pennsylvania by about 8.5 x .127 x .79= 0.85% and Florida by about 7.3 x .127 x .09 = .079%. Your claim that " the difference in asthma rates would be much larger. 6-10%." is simply a gross computational error on your part. I note that Florida in general has cleaner air than Pennsylvania which probably accounts for the slightly higher asthma rate in Pennsylvania.
In general it is best to figure peer reviewed papers do not have computational errors unless someone who is qualified to make the claim has produced evidence first. The problem here is you have made a gross calculation error, not the peer reviewed paper.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:35 AM on 23 March 2023Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2023
Regarding the perspective piece “Why focusing on “climate change denial” is counterproductive” by Christian Better and Felix Schulz:
Initial impressions may be that this perspective and the resulting recommendations are helpful. But some of the recommendations appear likely to be harmful from the perspective of pursuing Sustainable Development today for the benefit of Others, especially for the future of humanity.
The required actions will be divisive in most of the currently developed societies because those societies did not develop to be governed by learning about harm and aspiring to limit harm done and help others.
The required action is not ‘making sure that everyone is happy about how the required protection of Others from harm and the development of sustainable improvements occurs’. What is required is effective governing of the actions of all people, especially people who are motivated to resist learning what is ‘unsustainable and harmful and needs to be stopped’ like human climate impacts do.
The climate impact issue is not a case of limiting the harmfulness of developing behaviour. A lot of unsustainable and harmful activity has already become popular, profitable, desired and aspired to. The requirement is the ending of harmful popular and profitable harmful human activity and the related ‘denial of understanding that it needs to happen, and that everybody needs to fairly participate in ending the harm and repairing harm done’. It is not a choice. Self-govern responsibly, or be governed to limit harmfulness. Not allowing a person to be harmful, or harmfully misled into believing harmful misunderstandings, is not 'a harmful restriction of freedom.'
A related ‘hard reality’ is that ‘developing sustainable improvement requires thoughtful restriction of freedom based on the diligent pursuit of learning what is harmful and aggressively limiting the harm done and rapidly achieving reconciliation, and ideally full repair, of harm done’.
The developed reality is that people who would personally prefer to more slowly reduce their harmfulness will need to be disappointed. And some of the most powerful people will need to be the ‘most disappointed’. Individuals who want to benefit from increased harmfulness, except the desperate who are living less than basic decent lives, need to be disappointed even if they are middle class or lower status. The problem is primarily due to people who over-consume and whose ‘needed consumption to live a basic decent life’ is more harmful than it needs to be. And a related part of the problem is less harmful people developing an interest in being more harmful.
Attempting to avoid divisiveness, especially attempting to not disappoint individualists, is almost certain to result in more harm done. In the realm of climate change impacts it is likely to push things to a higher climate impact RCP than could would happen if the most harmful are the most disappointed (which is what should happen). It is also a pathway that makes it harder to develop sustainable improvements because ‘more harm needs to be dealt with’.
In addition, appeasing individualists has already resulted in the near certainty that the harm done to future generations by the current generation will exceed the robustly established 1.5 C limit (that probably should be 1.0 C but we are already well past that point). Those who benefited most from more harm done need to be responsible for the rapid removal of all that excess CO2. And individualists with personal prosperity and status interests are very unlikely to ‘choose’ to fairly participate in that unprofitable, but required, collective action.
The problem is ‘the harmful unsustainable beliefs and actions that have developed due to a failure to effectively collectively govern and limit human activity based on the pursuit of learning about what is unsustainable and harmful’. And part of the developed problem is the ‘development and promotion of positive perceptions of benefit’ governing over the need to learn about and limit harm done and make amends for harm done.
Poorly governed competition for popularity and profit created the problem. Continued freedom for individuals to evade learning to be less harmful and evade helping to repair damage done will result in more damage done, all justified by ‘Positive Perceptions of Benefits Obtained and other harmful misunderstandings’.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:56 AM on 23 March 2023Gas stoves pose health risks. Are gas furnaces and other appliances safe to use?
David-acct:
PAF is widely used in epidemiology, where controlled experiments are difficult (and run into ethics complications - you can't really select children from across the country and force them to live in houses with/without gas stoves and no other differences in their lives).
The paper you link to does not give a blanket condemnation of PAF studies - it just points out that there are issues that need to be considered. In the Introduction, it states (emphasis added):
"...in certain settings, the value of a population attributable fraction estimate may be questionable..."
...and in their conclusion, they state:
The assumptions underlying valid population attributable fraction estimation include the following...
...Such assumptions are often not justified. Those who present population attributable fractions have a duty to ensure that estimates are correctly computed and that their limited meaning is correctly communicated...
Do you dismiss PAF in its entirety? The reference you give does not, as far as I see.
As for the specific study mentioned in this OP - I presume that this is the link you are referring to - you make your own calculation comparison using a 12% value. When I read the paper, I see that it gives 12.7% as a national value. In the abstract, it states:
"We found that 12.7% (95% CI = 6.3–19.3%) of current childhood asthma in the US is attributable to gas stove use.
...and the same sentence appears in the results section, referring to figure 1. We also see in the conclusion:
In conclusion, 12.7% of current childhood asthma nationwide is attributed to gas stove use, which is similar to the childhood asthma burden attributed to secondhand smoke exposure.
But figure 1 of their paper also gives state-specific estimates of PAF. Pennsylvania's PAF is 13.5%, while Florida's PAF is only 3%. In their Materials and Methods section, they state (emphasis added):
...we used the summary statistics of the proportion of children exposed to gas cooking to generate distributions of proportions nationally and for each state for which we have data.
It looks to me like they have accounted for gas stove use, and calculated individual state PAFs, and Florida shows a low PAF for asthma attributable to gas stove use.
In your calculation, you seem to be assuming that gas stove use will be the only factor affecting asthma rates, which is clearly not what PAFs look at. The PAF of 3% for Florida suggests to me that this study is entirely consistent with most Florida asthma being due to other causes.
Why did you pick the 12.7% national rate, and exactly what do you think the "computational error" in the study is?
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Bart Vreeken at 21:31 PM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
N R N P @168
Shall I have a try in answering your questions? I live in The Netherlands and here we have the same kind of discussions. Excuse me in advance for my English, it seems to be horrible.
A. Changing for the worse?
I hope we do agree that the earth is warming. It's an on going process and we (science) expect that it will go on for a much longer time. So it gives a lot of changes in the climate almost everywhere.A key point is that the continents and the oceans are warming in a different speed. The oceans are warming much slower. This has consequences. When the atmosphere warms up it can contain more water vapor. But the less warming ocean can't deliver enough water vapour to keep the more warming continents humid enough. As a result there is more risk for drought at many places.
An other thing is that the air whole circulation will change. It means that local climates can change more than the global average. Wet climates can turn to dry climates, but also the other way round. Our agriculture, infrastructure and houses are not (always) prepared for that.
As you know, a warmer climate makes the sea level rise. The warmer water in the ocean expands, the ice sheets and mountain glaciers are melting to a certain extent. This sea level rise will give a lot of problems in many coastal areas. Here in the Netherlands the protection against the sea is very well organized, we can manage the first one or one-and-a-halve meter in this century. When it gets more we have a problem, but we are already try to prepare for that. Other countries, including deltas in Asia and parts of the US are less protected and will have large problems before 2100. By the way, it's not only the sea level rise there. Many of these places have also subsidence of the land, but these two come together and the problems are coming much faster then without sea level rise.And then there is the unpredictable part. We don't know exactly how the ice sheets will react. Maybe there are mechanisms for a quick decline of parts of the ice sheets. In that case we have less time to prepare for it.
Of course, there can also be places where the climate gets better, or at least in a part of the year. And at least, we will need less fuel for warming the houses. (but more electricity for cooling in the summer.)An interesting point is the direct effect of the increasing CO2 level to the vegetation and the agriculture. Plants can grow faster with that. Remote sensing shows something like 'global greening'. But it's a mixture of natural response and increasing agriculture. The last thing is tricky when water recourses are limited. And as we have seen, the increasing risk for drought is a cause for concern by itself. Maybe you know the story of the Aral See?
Then your question B) changing because of human activities?
Yes, we can be sure about this. We could calculate the effect of increasing CO2 hundred years ago and it's just what happening. Other possible factors, like changing sun power don't have much effect, these changes are too small. The less known part is how the atmosphere reacts (water vapor, clouds), how the ocean circulation reacts, how ice sheets react in detail."C) why this time it is different than the changes that have taken place?"
The changes are going very fast now, and as I said, the houses, the infrastructure, the agriculture and the water supply are not prepared for these changes. And there is the risk for sudden, even faster changes (tipping points).Moderator Response:][BL Response to deleted comments snipped
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Eclectic at 19:25 PM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
NoRightsNoProblems @165~168 ,
Thanks for the laugh. Even though it's old material.
If you get better educated, you would ask better questions.
Hint : science-denialists generally fail to get educated because they keep their minds open at the bottom, not at the top. That is why they keep asking the same questions over and over, for decade after decade. They never learn, because they don't wish to learn. [ My apologies for that untactful Home Truth. ]
Moderator Response:[BL] Response to deleted comments snipped.
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NoRightsNoProblem at 17:51 PM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Mr. Moderator- I find your tone to be:A) condescending,B) insulting,andC) lacking any attempt at satisfying my curiosity.I fully expect to be banned before I am educated. Not for anything I say, but because you cannot produce the evidence to justify your claims..if you want a fair fight, let's get it on.Moderator Response:[BL] Mission accomplished.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:34 PM on 22 March 2023It's not bad
peppers @416,
A more extensive presentation of misunderstanding does not make it more reasonable or credible (no matter how many times you repeat it).
You continue to try to promote the belief that the only factor is the 'population growth'. You have even said many times that as soon as the population stops growing the human impact problem will stop getting worse.
Continuation of harmful activity will not stop when the population stops growing. It will not even stop when the population declines from its peak. But it can be reduced while the population grows.
The harm being done will stop when there is no longer any people getting away with obtaining personal benefit from actions that are unsustainable and harmful to Others. Non-human life and the future generations of humanity are the easiest to harm because they have no vote, no legal power, no marketing power. Mind you, people in other legal jurisdictions can also be easy to harm because they also lack powers to govern/limit the harm being done in Other jurisdictions (and leaders of harmful jurisdictions often fight, in misleading ways and with the promotion of misunderstandings, against having higher level governing parties limit their harmfulness).
In many previous comments on different SkS items you have also argued that if the different magnitudes of harmfulness is to be the basis for determining who is the major cause of the problem then larger populations of less harmful people 'are the more harmful problem'. In my comment @77 on the SkS item "The Big Picture", I have rationally refuted that resoundingly by explaining that that is like declaring that someone who is twice as harmful as everyone else 'is acceptable because 3 of those Other people are more harmful in total'.
To conclude I will point you to the following informative report: "Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window – Climate Crisis Calls for Rapid Transformation of Societies". It is the first of many informative documents pointed to be the SkS item "New reports spell out climate urgency, shortfalls, needed actions"
In my comment @4 on that SkS item I present a relevant point made in the "Emissions Gap Report 2022: ...". It points out the following regarding the most harmful people: "Super-emitters in the top 0.1 per cent (average 467 tCO2e/capita) and the top 0.01 per cent (2,531 tCO2e/capita) have seen the fastest growth in personal carbon footprints since 1990." and "... the bottom 50 per cent emit on average 1.6 tCO2e/capita".
That revises things. Your argument that 'only the number of people matters' would result in claiming that a person who is 2531/1.6=1581 times as harmful as the average person in half of the global population is 'acceptable because 1582 of the average in the least harmful 50% of the global population would be more harmful than that one person'.
The problem is, and always has been, the most harmful pursuers of personal benefit not being effectively governed/limited by Others. And the worst cases of that problem happens when the less harmful Others, but desire the benefits of being more harmful, are willing to be misled into supporting and excusing the most harmful misleaders.
It is possible, and essential for the future of humanity, for more people to learn to be less harmful and more helpful to Others, be part of the solution rather than be misled into being part of the problem. They just have to choose to learn to be less harmful and more helpful at making amends for harm done, especially if they benefited from the harm that was done. And once enough political groups have chosen to be less harmful and more helpful they have enough collective power they will be able to limit the harmfulness of the trouble-makers who persist at fighting against learning to be less harmful and more helpful.
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David-acct at 10:42 AM on 22 March 2023Gas stoves pose health risks. Are gas furnaces and other appliances safe to use?
The gas stove / asthma study uses a population attribution fraction (PAF) analysis. PAF analysis assumes causality based solely on correlation which is a very weak methodology. Below is a link to two articles describing the weakness of PAF (one of which is a PAF analysis with obesity, though the shortcomings in the PAF analysis are similar).
The second obvious weakness in the study are simple math computational errors. For example gas stove use in Pennsylvania is 79% while florida, the gas stove use is only 9%. The difference in the rate of asthma is approx 1% (8.5% vs 7.3%). If the 12% causation was a reasonable estimate, then the difference in asthma rates would be much larger. 6-10%.
What is disappointing is that this study has not only received tremendous fanfare, but has been embraced by groups that should have recognized the weaknesses and shortcomings in the conclusions.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:35 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart @ 147 says "As far as I know."
Yes Bart. We've seen you use this sort of ploy before. Stick some sort of qualifier on your statement so that you can avoid the logical implications of your claims.
For what it is worth, seeing you say "As far as I know" makes me think "yes, Bart knows so little". That makes you ignorant: "not knowing (a fact or facts), unaware (of something)". That can be changed by learning, but you show all signs of wanting to stick to your beliefs. That indicates willful ignorance. That is not a positive character trait.
Any idea that you present that you originated some form of graphical display of temperature data has been conclusively demonstrated to be false. That you continue this charade is a form of puffery (the act of puffing: an opinion or judgment, often made by the seller of property to a potential buyer, that is not made as a representation of fact.
@ 155, you say "was just my opinion". Wild guesses. Opinions. Whatever.
For someone who has demonstrated such a poor ability to express himself, or to recognize the context of material he reads and spouts quotes from, it's pretty rich to see you saying things like "Looks like you still don't understand the topic completely". You are in no position to be claiming any sort of intellectual or knowledge high ground.
You just keep digging yourself a deeper hole You really should take your own advice when you said "But let's stop the discussion".
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Rob Honeycutt at 10:22 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
NoRightsNoProblem @161... On top of what the moderator points out is a poor debate approach, your "questions" are all straw men since no one says any of what you're stating.
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Rob Honeycutt at 10:19 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart @160... "The Netherlands benefit from the gravitational effects."
Please show me research that actually makes this claim rather than just your interpretation of a graph that disagrees with the statements made by the authors of the paper.
I'm honestly open to being convinced by the research, but the research is going to have to actually make claims (in words) that support your statement.
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NoRightsNoProblem at 08:20 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
I feel like I just stepped on Mars.
Does the data confirm that we humans will be so restricted in our activities that life won't be worth living?
Please tell me why children as youg as FIVE are the target of your agenda.
Assuming that preventing a climate catastrophe is your goal, would you like to completely remove all
humans in pursuit of obtaining it?
Mr moderator— these are questions. Not statements. I do NOT agree with the "settled science," as science is NEVER settled. But if you forsee me causing a problem in my dissent, please--change my mind.
Moderator Response:[BL] We are quite familiar with the "Just asking questions" style of "debate". It will not get you far here, and it does not suggest that you are open to any ideas that might change your mind.
You should start by reading the comments policy.
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Bart Vreeken at 07:30 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
NB a spelling check should help here. Sorry for that.
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Bart Vreeken at 07:28 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Hi Rob @158
When you're willing to read something wrong there is allways a possibility.
The Netherlands benefit from the gravitational effects. What gravitational effect? The gravitational effects of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Becaurse of these effects we will only see some 12.5% (or even less) of the melting water coming here. That's better then 100%, so there is a benefit.
The KNMI calls this 'neglecteble' and I do agree with that. For they know what they are talking about.
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:58 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart... "Looks like you still don't understand the topic completely."
Is that another "opinion" of yours, make without doing even a minimal amount of research?
Previously, far up in this thread, you stated that the Netherlands "profits from" (I'm interpreting that to mean "benefits from") the gravitational effects of the melting Greenland ice sheet. The paper that you cited claimed the effect on the Netherlands was negligible over the previous decade, and makes no claims about projected effects.
Are you claiming the author of the paper you cited doesn't understand this topic completely?
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:53 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart... "But of course I can't oversee everything. I didn't research the complete Internet then."
Nor have I researched the complete internet. I merely spent 10-15 mins doing trying some very basic search terms and came up with all these examples. It's not that difficult.
And that's kind of the point. If you're going to insinuate that someone stole your idea, maybe it would be a good idea to make at least a minimal effort to check to see if your "opinion" is correct or not.
This is basic professional courtesy, Bart.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:34 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart Vreeken @131,
There was no question. I was presenting an understanding based on observations of evidence in your comments. Your presented interpretation of my comments appears to support my observation in my comment @99 that:
"There is a wealth of evidence in Bart’s comment history that appears to indicate that their interests are not Big Picture. Their interests appear to be much smaller/narrower. They appear to be seeking ‘positive perceptions from the perspective of short-term regional interests’."
I have made other comments about the harm of pursuing positive perceptions because it delays learning the Truth about the Big Picture harm being done to the future of Humanity. Arguing for a 'positive, less panicked, perspective' has produced the current serious harm, and risk of more significant harm, to the future of humanity that is presented in the article I pointed to in my comment @130. Another report on that same topic is by NPR "Cut emissions quickly to save lives, scientists warn in a new U.N. report".
The harmful reality you appear try to avoid understanding, even if you present global interpretations, is not altered by speculation based on one year of heavy snow fall on Antarctica and an unsubstantiated perceived correlation between snowfall and sea ice extent, or because Greenland may only melt on its east coast (conclusions you appear to be interested in jumping to).
Also, as I presented in my comment @68, the very negative (panic level severity) of possible outcomes is what the people who benefit most from the harm need to 'mitigate'. It is important to understand that what is referred to as 'climate change impact adaptation' is mitigation required by others because of a failure of harmful people (success from their short-term limited regional interest perspective) to mitigate their harmfulness. And part of how the harmful try to justify being more harmful is by claiming that "It's not that Bad = positive perceptions that the harm is not very significant" or "Harm done is worth it because of the Perceived Positives".
The Big Picture understanding is that it is generally unacceptable to use benefits or potential benefits to excuse harm done or potential harm done. The only case where that 'may be' acceptable is a case where the individual pursuing or obtaining the benefit will be the only one suffering any harm. It does not even apply to a group because different members of a group may obtain different degrees of harm and benefit.
In spite of that undeniable Big Picture understanding regarding the importance of learning to minimize harm and help those who have been harmed, many people today try to excuse continuing to pursue more benefit from being more harmful. And part of their harmful effort is the pursuit of harmful misunderstandings or a focus on 'positive perceptions that minimize the need for helpful mitigation by reducing the perceptions of severity of harm being done' (like claiming that less fortunate people deserve to be less fortunate, or being dismissive of what is happening to places like Bangladesh).
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Bart Vreeken at 05:57 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Hi Rob @153
"the gravitational effects from the Greenland ice sheet are not going to reduce the Netherlands' risk from sea level rise."
Looks like you still don't understand the topic completely. I stated that only 12.5% of the meltwater of Greenland comes to the Netherlands. So yes, the gravitational effect does reduce the risk from sea level rise in NL a little.
"You were not the first to create temperature bars on a graph"
When I started with that I hadn't seen it anywhere else. But of course I can't oversee everything. I didn't research the complete Internet then. My remark about the inspriration for the Climate Stripes was just my opinion, just a site remark and not my main message of @131. You make it more important then it was.
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michael sweet at 05:54 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart Vreeken,
There have been a lot of posts discussing a variety of topics here . I am not sure just what points you are trying to make. Can you summarize your position with a few bullet points saying what you are trying to show.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:29 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart... "You already do."
Yes. I tend to take exception when people accuse others without justification.
I also notice a pattern here where you don't fully research your claims once you've determined what you want to believe. You were not the first to create temperature bars on a graph, and the gravitational effects from the Greenland ice sheet are not going to reduce the Netherlands' risk from sea level rise.
When you make claims like these it's very important to take the time to be thorough and accurate with what you're stating, and I don't see that you're taking the time to do that.
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Bart Vreeken at 03:17 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
Rob Honeycutt @151
"I could go on and on..."
You allready do. But let's stop the discussion. You made your point, there was a function available before 2015. I don't use R. I programmed the graphics myself.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:29 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
2001: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/hichart
2013: https://www.python-graph-gallery.com/heatmap-for-timeseries-matplotlib
2014: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/26734065/simple-heatmap-of-temperature-in-r-ggplot2
I could go on and on...
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:25 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
I have shown you this is a standard method of presenting data in a graph. So, people have been doing this well before 2015. Thinking of something and not bothering to see if anyone else has done the same doesn't mean you are the first to do it.
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Bart Vreeken at 02:04 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
I still haven't seen an example from before 2015, Rob Honeycutt.
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Rob Honeycutt at 00:57 AM on 22 March 2023The Big Picture
That's a really cynical response, Bart. The point is, you are not the first. Heat mapping is a common graphing technique and you can't claim to have invented it. Ed Hawkins merely popularized it by applying it to global temperature with a particular color scale. In fact, climate scientist, Elie Highwood, crocheted warming stripes in 2017 inspired by a technique done by other crocheters called "sky blankets" where they crochet colors as they go based on the color of the sky that day.
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Bart Vreeken at 18:10 PM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Well, that's great, Rob Honeycutt @ 146. That makes it even more remarkable that nobody made graphs with temperature stripes before I did in 2011 (NL), 2012 (D) and 2015 (USA). As far as I know.
I was wrong with the publication date of het Climate strips. It seems to be in 2018, not 2016. It's a good commercial concept anyway, you can buy socks, cups, sweaters etc. with the pattern now.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:07 PM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Ah, look! Graphical heat mapping has been a tool in R since at least 2010.
https://flowingdata.com/2010/01/21/how-to-make-a-heatmap-a-quick-and-easy-solution/
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Rob Honeycutt at 10:01 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart... "...when I started with it nowbody did, as far as I know." Is this going to be like the paper you cited but hadn't read?
So far, without much effort, I've found similar techniques applied going back to 2016.
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Bart Vreeken at 07:36 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Rob Honeycutt @143
"...that implies that he took the idea from you."
That implies that that was my thought. My site had a lot of visits from the US then.
"If I'm not mistaken this is just a tool used when coding with R. All Hawkins did was apply the tool to global temperature."
Of course it's an easy thing to do but when I started with it nowbody did, as far as I know. But it's OK for me, it's a good way to show climate change.
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:08 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart and Bob... Okay, I see now that you have to carefully select a small area on the map to get the temperature link to show.
Bart... When you say, "Some month later Ed Hawkins presented his 'warming stripes'. Where did he get the idea....? Hmmmm" ...that implies that he took the idea from you.
If I'm not mistaken this is just a tool used when coding with R. All Hawkins did was apply the tool to global temperature.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:19 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
On Bart's European map, he says:
"Here you find nice colourful overviews (PDF) of the temperature of many places in Europe, over periods of 40 or 42 years. Just click on the map to find out.
"Here" is not the map you're looking at - it's in the images you will see if you figure out that "clicking on the map" means "clicking on the city names on the map". Likewise, the colours on what you see "here" (the map) are not temperatures - it's just elevation shading.
You need to find a Bart-->English, English-->Bart dictionary.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:11 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Rob @ 139:
In spite of Bart's map stating (on the US one):
"Please click on the map for historical temperature data and snow depth of places in the U.S. since 1974
...you actually need to click on the place names on the map to get a page showing data for that city. Clicking anywhere else on the map does nothing.
Another case of Bart saying one thing, but meaning something else.
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Bart Vreeken at 05:38 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Hi Rob @139
Thank you for your comment. What do you mean "clicking on the map does nothing for me"? You should see things like this:
logboekweer.nl/International/America/NYC%20(CENTRAL%20PARK)_Temp.pdf
Where does it go wrong? Is it both US and Europe?
How can you say that there is no temperature scale when the links don't work? As you can see the temperature scale is on the bottom of the page.
I didn't say that Ed Hawkins stole the warming stripes idea from me. Of course, he may have come up with the idea himself. He declares that it came from seeing a painting. But for me it was very coincidental.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:10 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart @132/132... a) Your map graphics are pretty darned useless without temperature scales, plus clicking on the map does nothing for me. b) That's a pretty outrageous insinuation that Ed Hawkins, a well-known and respected climate scientist, stole the warming stripes idea from you.
Peppers @134... (sigh) Not even gonna read it, in either place you posted.
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BaerbelW at 04:43 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Philippe @ 136 & Bart @ 137
John Cook created SkS in 2007 in Australia which is why it's running on Australian time. After 4 years in the U.S. at George Mason University, John moved back to Australia 2 years ago and is now at the University of Melbourne.
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Bart Vreeken at 03:47 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Ah thank you Philippe, I didn't know that.
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Philippe Chantreau at 03:41 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
SkS is originally an Australian site, still based in Australia as far as I know, despite John Cook now pursuing higher achievements in the US.
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Bart Vreeken at 03:29 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
I read: "peppers at 02:50 AM on 21 March, 2023"
There's something strange going on. In Europe it's still March 20. Do you read the same over there?
Has the world started turning the other way round? Or is the internet mixing up times and dates? I didn't notice this before but is started earlier.
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peppers at 02:50 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
HI One World, and also Rob made some sea level comments as well.
Im sorry I don’t have more time, and some of you commit large swaths of time here and I appreciate that.
Using NASA data, presuming they have the best resources and equipment, satellites and those argo sea probes et al. to gather original data, they show sea level rising since 1993 to be 3.8 inches.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/
But what I think you are trying to indicate, and what the graphs show mostly, are that the rate of sea rise increases as the warming continues higher and higher. An exponential effect is presented. So taking past temperature increases will not explain future expected gains. It is either an exponential increase or the suggestion is that the increase is delayed so that as we go up in temperature, the rise happens decades later and there is a build.
I think we have finished with the run away suggestions for nature. The train bearing down on a child and all that. I see that as tactics to get people to listen and pay attention, but nothing true in our environment. Nature balances. She reacts. This Co2 rise is a reaction and right now she is reacting to this human population boom, which is unprecedented in history. And all the energy use associated with all these new counts of people on earth, living longer and healthier than ever, this is increasing Co2 counts and enriching our surface world in all the ways Co2 can do that.
Nasa used 4-5 scales to predict sea rise, 1. tracking if nothing is done, 2. some is done and 3. complete zero new emissions is achieved ( which cannot happen until the population levels out in 60 or so years ).
By 2100 there is Nasa modeling of .4 to .8 meter rise, using the data set of 2. some is being done. Doing what we can will be instrumental in keeping high tide from being higher than usual in that future time. I’ve tries to stay with the median predictions, so this is not discrepancy conversation of the outer 5%’s.
Science American believes no new storms are made but the severity of moisture based storms may increase by 2-4 miles per hour. The threat of sea rise is about the most serious threat.
I understand better where you are coming from. I still have the higher philosophical orientation to grapple with.
If mankind has finally achieved the goal of conquering the mission of dreams pondered throughout the pain filled ages, of solving misery and pain and finding medical success beyond any expectations. Is this worth it? A sea level rise?
The highest gain has been with infant mortality, which has plummeted from the high middle ages at 400-500 per thousand to 5.5 infants per thousand today. Think of all the occasions of birth deaths which also took the mother too, to quantify misery. That and antibiotics alone have caused this phenomenon of Co2 rise. Life spans have increased 61%, living conditions have soared, medicine is in a wonderland of abilities and birth to adulthood stats are beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. The question is; is that worth a side effect of sea level rising a foot and a half, maybe 2 feet at high tide.
This endeavor appears to goad and cajole and shame people using fossil fuel and I suppose that is the fastest way to get attention. But I do not believe it to be honest. This appears to be unwittingly human caused and one must decide if it is worth the subsequent consequences ahead. It is not from derelict and wanton people, it is from the results of scientific achievement, sought after for ages and finally achieved within the science that coincided with the industrial revolution. The origin of this is important to be able to consider context to this issue. If I were there and had the choice in my hands, I’d have us standing exactly where we were today. Reducing Co2 is still important, but I wouldn’t be bullying any brothers from any mothers over this. It is important, but not that important all things considered.Moderator Response:[BL] You have made this comment on two different threads. Here, and on the "It's not bad" thread.
This is considered bad form. Pick one location. You can create a link to your comment on another thread (as I have here) if you want to call attention to it, but do not post the original content multiple times.
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peppers at 02:49 AM on 21 March 2023It's not bad
HI One World, and also Rob made some sea level comments as well.
Im sorry I don’t have more time, and some of you commit large swaths of time here and I appreciate that.
Using NASA data, presuming they have the best resources and equipment, satellites and those argo sea probes et al. to gather original data, they show sea level rising since 1993 to be 3.8 inches.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/
But what I think you are trying to indicate, and what the graphs show mostly, are that the rate of sea rise increases as the warming continues higher and higher. An exponential effect is presented. So taking past temperature increases will not explain future expected gains. It is either an exponential increase or the suggestion is that the increase is delayed so that as we go up in temperature, the rise happens decades later and there is a build.
I think we have finished with the run away suggestions for nature. The train bearing down on a child and all that. I see that as tactics to get people to listen and pay attention, but nothing true in our environment. Nature balances. She reacts. This Co2 rise is a reaction and right now she is reacting to this human population boom, which is unprecedented in history. And all the energy use associated with all these new counts of people on earth, living longer and healthier than ever, this is increasing Co2 counts and enriching our surface world in all the ways Co2 can do that.
Nasa used 4-5 scales to predict sea rise, 1. tracking if nothing is done, 2. some is done and 3. complete zero new emissions is achieved ( which cannot happen until the population levels out in 60 or so years ).
By 2100 there is Nasa modeling of .4 to .8 meter rise, using the data set of 2. some is being done. Doing what we can will be instrumental in keeping high tide from being higher than usual in that future time. I’ve tries to stay with the median predictions, so this is not discrepancy conversation of the outer 5%’s.
Science American believes no new storms are made but the severity of moisture based storms may increase by 2-4 miles per hour. The threat of sea rise is about the most serious threat.
I understand better where you are coming from. I still have the higher philosophical orientation to grapple with.
If mankind has finally achieved the goal of conquering the mission of dreams pondered throughout the pain filled ages, of solving misery and pain and finding medical success beyond any expectations. Is this worth it? A sea level rise?
The highest gain has been with infant mortality, which has plummeted from the high middle ages at 400-500 per thousand to 5.5 infants per thousand today. Think of all the occasions of birth deaths which also took the mother too, to quantify misery. That and antibiotics alone have caused this phenomenon of Co2 rise. Life spans have increased 61%, living conditions have soared, medicine is in a wonderland of abilities and birth to adulthood stats are beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. The question is; is that worth a side effect of sea level rising a foot and a half, maybe 2 feet at high tide.
This endeavor appears to goad and cajole and shame people using fossil fuel and I suppose that is the fastest way to get attention. But I do not believe it to be honest. This appears to be unwittingly human caused and one must decide if it is worth the subsequent consequences ahead. It is not from derelict and wanton people, it is from the results of scientific achievement, sought after for ages and finally achieved within the science that coincided with the industrial revolution. The origin of this is important to be able to consider context to this issue. If I were there and had the choice in my hands, I’d have us standing exactly where we were today. Reducing Co2 is still important, but I wouldn’t be bullying any brothers from any mothers over this. It is important, but not that important all things considered.Moderator Response:[BL] If you want people to read what you write, spending enough time to format it properly would help.
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Bob Loblaw at 02:07 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart @ 129:
"And I never said that the number came from the IPCC, that's what Bob Loblaw makes of it. "
Once again, as you did in your first series of comments on the Antarctic thread, after a series of posts you are resorting to "I never said that", even though it is clear that what you did say left that impression. I stand by my statements in comment # 127.
You are getting boring and predictable. If you want to avoid having people get the wrong impression, learn to write clearly.
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Bart Vreeken at 01:50 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Link to the American temperature data (retry)
logboekweer.nl/International/UnitedStatesTemperatureHistory.htm
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Bart Vreeken at 01:43 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
One planet etc. @ 128
What exactly is youre question? Looks like you think that I'm only interested in climate change in The Netherlands. Well, not at all.
Years ago I posted an overview of the temperature data of many American and European stations on an American climate forum. When you click on the name of a city you find a whole range of temperature data, presented in stripes. Some month later Ed Hawkins presented his 'warming stripes'. Where did he get the idea....? Hmmmm.
logboekweer.nl/International/EuropeTemperatureHistory.htm
https://logboekweer.nl/International/UnitedStatesTemperatureHistory.htmUnfortunately, the data of the US are not very up-to-date. I should make an update, but it's a lot of work. Europe is better (not everywhere)
Moderator Response:[BL] Link fixed, as per comment 133.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:29 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
This new BBC report on the "UN climate report: Scientists release 'survival guide' to avert climate disaster" helps understand what is going on.
Tragically, it appears that the most obvious 'immediately available ways to reduce harmful emissions' are still not being discussed and prioritized.
Reducing unnecessary energy consumption, and other consumption, along with focusing on rapidly transitioning the remaining 'essential consumption' to less harmful ways of living, has always been an available option. Reduced consumption by the people who have developed a liking for harmful over-consumption reduces how much energy system transition is required.
The problem is when personal interests lead to regional leadership interests being governed by the pursuit of positive perceptions (harmful misunderstandings or distractions from learning about what is harmful) that excuse or dismiss the undeniable evidence-based need for people to learn to be less harmful and more helpful to Others (and the future of humanity is a massive number of 'Others deserving consideration').
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Bart Vreeken at 01:29 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
And again the discussion isn't closed yet. It's a bit boring now.
I posted the figure of how the melting water from Greenland works out in the Netherlands. That's quite clear. The only question is the more exacte place on Greenland where the melting water comes from. There are differences in that from year to year, and between the sources (gravimetry, altimetry). But looking at the map below, I think my guess was not so very bad. It's the line through the middle of Greenland. And I never said that the number came from the IPCC, that's what Bob Loblaw makes of it.
Moderator Response:[DB] Tedium and argumentative snipped.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:09 AM on 21 March 2023The Big Picture
Bart Vreeken,
In addition to Bob Loblaw's helpful comments (and the helpful cmments of many others), my comments, particularly my comment @99, may help people understand what is going on.
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Eclectic at 23:46 PM on 20 March 2023Climate's changed before
iv @892 ,
Please forgive my intrusion ( I speak no Italian ) but in English conversation about climate and climate science, many people use heat and energy as identical terms. Sometimes that is justified, and sometimes not justified.
Perhaps the original translation intends to convey one meaning - or both meanings. What is your own preference in translating ?
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Bob Loblaw at 23:37 PM on 20 March 2023The Big Picture
Ah, I see that Bart continues to do revisionist history on the discussions in this thread.
To start, Bart, the next time you make a "wild guess", please identify it as a wild guess.
Your 12.5% wild guess first appeared in comment 44, where you said:
"Do I have to explain basic geophysics here? When the ice in Greenland melts then only 10 - 15% of it will make the sealevel rise in The Netherlands.
No qualifications there - Bart expressed this as a pretty definitive statement. The context (there is that awful word again) was with respect to Bart's attempts to justify his use of a simple extrapolation of current trends to predict sea level rise by 2100, introduced in comment # 27. He doubled-down on that extrapolation in comment #35., where he also mentioned Greenland.
Bart refines the "10-15%" to "12.5%" in comment # 52, where he says:
"Also according to IPCC the addition to the global sealevel rise by Greenland in the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2100 is 13cm. 12,5% of this comes to the Netherlands, that's 1,6 cm. Not very much to be worried about.
At this point, he is making it appear as if the 12.5% value is "according to the IPCC". Again, no qualifications to the statement, no indication that the context is changing from "according to the IPCC" to "according to a wild guess by Bart Vreeken".
When challenged for a source, Bart posts a link to a diagram (in Dutch) that gives an incomplete explanation. Then in comment #84, he provide another figure with no caption and no source. Eventually he provides more diagrams and (after a request) the original source of the diagram.
And now he finally admits that his 12.5% value was "a wild guess", after spending days trying to make it look like it was a definitive value supported by various sources.
Do you understand, Bart, that by leading these wild goose chases - as other try to understand where your wild guesses come from - you have largely lost credibility here?
