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Comments 27551 to 27600:
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PluviAL at 08:57 AM on 25 August 2015World Bank rejects energy industry notion that coal can cure poverty
The arguments for renewable energy for developing countries are valid, but the cost factors must be considered. A carbon tax could go a long way balnce the cost difference. Another factor is compensating developing nations for using the more expensive option of renewables.
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PluviAL at 08:40 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Mancan18, I don't even know what is not my opinion, still your assertion is a big one. So, let me approach it from your concluding argument. CFCs could be controlled because they are inconsequential, replaceable, and there are not huge economic interests behind them. FF are all the opposite. The article, and this wonderful 107 page paper behind it argue that they are replaceable, and rather easily if 150 years of infrastructure is to be replaced in 35. I argue the same as this paper in my book, but on the basis of much cheaper technology with overwhelming benefits.
Fossil fuels without tax are far better than most renewable technologies; my opinion from similar study as yours. The paper proposes a road map to give policymakers a sense that there are alternatives.
So, if a carbon tax is imposed, we know there are viable alternatives.There are many points of contention, of course, but its a good starting point. I would allow that FF will not be easily replaced but its a duable task.
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Jonas at 07:56 AM on 25 August 2015Adapting to air pollution with clean air stands in China
I am searching for words far beyond "despair".
Is this what homo sapiens calls a "solution"?
The situation must be way out of any control. -
scaddenp at 07:38 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Stranger - to be honest, I didnt see the date on that article. However, the description of their current technology says they are still based around same slow speed direct drive annular generator, but I also note comments that their technology is considered expensive compared to neodymium-based systems. Still, as 4th largest player world wide and with 40%+ of German market, they are not exactly a bit player.
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ronald myers at 06:13 AM on 25 August 2015Adapting to air pollution with clean air stands in China
Based on the reports of the pollution composition and level in China prior to the Olympics, I doubt that these shelters reduce pollutant levels to the US standard for Particulate, SO2, NOx, Ozone and Lead. At 70% reduction it would be marginal. However, the technology to reduce all of these pollutants would require three different technologies. Particulate (and Lead) would likely be the easiest by using a fabric filter. By adding an alkaline material to coat the inside of the fabric filter, the SO2 might be reduced. At great expense a paladium catalyst may address the NOx and Ozone. However, I would have to see a substantial amount of data to beleve any high reduction in the pollutant concentrations. That still does not address the hazardous organic vapors (benzene, toluene, etc.) which would require the addition of activated charcoal for removal.
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New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
I'll note that current analyses indicate that overbuilding capacity in wind and solar is more cost-effective than building energy storage into the grid. If that continues to be the case, excess power when available could be used for additional synthetic fuel production, effectively becoming energy storage for a large sector of the economy.
Whether or not that diversion methodology makes overall economic sense will depend on whether syn-fuel production facilities can afford to operate part-time, though, and I don't have numbers on that aspect. But syn-fuels from renewable power do appear workable and economic. The US Navy has considered this for fueling their carrier aircraft, producing syn-fuel kerosene from reactor power on the move to extend carrier mission duration, at a cost of ~$6-7/gal. - apparently the amount of fuel for the aircraft becomes a limiting factor.
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New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Regarding hydrogen fuels - aircraft (and transport in general) have certain needs, among them sufficient energy density in the fuel to pack in enough for a reasonable trip while still having room for occupants and cargo.
Considering the issues with hydrogen storage density, I suspect synthetic fuels created with renewable energy (Jensen et al 2007 published in the "International Journal of Hydrogen Energy", for but one example) will be a more viable path for transport.
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MA Rodger at 04:27 AM on 25 August 2015Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Steven Sullivan @233.
The 2012 comment by realscience @148 referred to Oppo, DW, Y Rosenthal, BK Linsley, 2000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, Nature, 460 1113-1116, doi:10.1038/nature08233, 2009. You are referring to a more recent paper - Rosenthal, Y., BK Linsley, Oppo, DW, Pacific Ocean Heat Content during the past 10,000 years, Science, 342 617-621, 2013.
The quote you make from this later paper has been bandied about by contrarians, mainly because they rather enjoyed the paper saying "The inferred similarity in temperature anomalies at both hemispheres is consistent with recent evidence from Antarctica (30), thereby supporting the idea that the Holocene Thermal Maximum, MWP, and LIA were global events," but felt the sentence you quoted needed a bit of trashing as it spoiled their interpretation of what the paper was saying. So some branded your quote "a single sentence of genuflection to CAGW." Reading this contrarian blather, I think it's fair to say that the contrarians inabilities in understanding 'CAGW' are also persent in their understanding of the relationship between OHC & surface temperatures.
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MA Rodger at 04:13 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
PhilippeChantreau @48.
My appologies. When I posted the link it was fully readable. A 737 was to be filled with a hydrogen fuel tank so this was not a commercially viable machine being built. However the link does demonstrate that Beoing are looking at hydrogen fuel cells which was the contended issue.
Further, CRYOPLANE did not involve hardware but again, demonstrated that Airbus were not of the opinion that "hydrogen fuel cells for airliners were found to be impractical over forty years ago," again a point of issue.
I don't recall weight being a hinderance to hydrogen fuel. Rather it reduces the weight of fuel which is an enabling situation. However it is correct to say that the aviation industry are not rushing to embrace this technology. As I remember, the CRYOPLANE report was suggesting 2015 as the timing for hardware to begin working for a living but that conventional feuls would retain a price advantage for some period.
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:00 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
No problem. Honest mistake.
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Stranger8170 at 03:59 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Sorry Rob. I always tell my wife I'm the king of l faux pas. And it's embarrising after I said I come here everyday.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:54 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Stranger... Around here, we prefer to use the abbreviation "SkS" instead of "SS" for obvious reasons.
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Stranger8170 at 03:46 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Thanks KR. That's really informaive stuff.
I've make it here everyday since this website was created but rarely post. Real Climate use to be my main read but I've found SS to be more helpful for the non science majors.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:00 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
It's worth noting that there is a large ARPA-E project to develop permanent magnets that are free of rare earth elements called Rare Earth Alternatives in Critical Technologies (REACT).
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PhilippeChantreau at 02:50 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
MA Rodger, your link to the Boeing fuel cell demonstrator leads to a paywall. The cryoplane assessment project was an entirely theoretical study that concluded that using hydrogen as fuel for transport aircraft was technically feasible. However the extra weight leads to hiher operating costs. Furthermore, it has, to my knowledge, not led to the development of any flying prototype. It also did not seem to consider all the infrastructure and operating procedures modifications, which would be significant.
There may be more medium term future for aviation in generalizing jet fuel from algae, which has a chance to be carbon neutral if processes use renewable energy or their own product. This would have the inconvenient of not alleviating the release of turbine exhaust gases at high altitude but at least would prevent further injection of previously stored carbon. These fuels are also easier to deal with when spilled.
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PhilippeChantreau at 02:27 AM on 25 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
johnkg, the article you reference discusses research to replace airliners' auxiliary power units (APUs) by hydrogen fuel cells. APUs are used to generate power for the aircraft needs when parked on the ground with the engines shut off. APUs are small gas turbines but pack a lot of power and have even been used occasionally as a powerplant for smaller aircrafts. However, it is a far cry from powering an ariliner for flight with hydrogen fuel cells, and the article does not mention any intention or researching in that direction.
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New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Stranger - Rare earth magnets are among the most powerful permanent magnets, making very efficient windmills cheaper and more effective. As such, their availibility is a potential limiting factor in wind energy.
However, in addition to the current supplies from China, there are mines being developed in Austrailia, Brazil, Canada, and Vietnam that may be online in a few years, and there are potential replacements in the works such as iron nitride magnets with no rare earth components and twice the magnetic energy of present rare earth magnets.
Rare earth availability doesn't represent a ceiling on potential wind energy.
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Steven Sullivan at 01:55 AM on 25 August 2015Medieval Warm Period was warmer
realiscience wrote (in 2012): "Did you look at Oppo's data points. Some are clearly at this level, meaning that it is within the margin of error that sea surface temperatures could have been higher. ?"
I read the paper. Did you see this part? " The modern rate of Pacific OHC change is, however, the highest in the past 10,000 years (Fig. 4 and table S3)." OHC = ocean heat content
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Stranger8170 at 23:49 PM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
scaddenp, to be honest I've barely scratched the surface in understanding the dymanics of rare earth metals in the construction of things like gearless wind turbines and thin solar panels. I figured that by bringing my concerns to Skeptical Science I'd gain futher insights to what was only recently pointed out to me as a problem. You've enlightend me on the fact that thin solar pannels are used less often than normal PV instalations which don't use rare earth metals.
Concerning wind turbans, what little bit I've learned is that the reason they've gone to rare earth mineals was to make the wind turbines gearless which means they have far fewer mechanical problems which had plagued them in the past.
I noticed the link you posted was 4 years old. That seems like a long time in todays high tech world. Do you know if the turbines built by Enercon have panned out well since 2011?
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MA Rodger at 22:33 PM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
denisaf @42.
If anybody needs to present "a reference" then that is yourself. You make bold claims here but without a single shred of evidence to back up your foolhardy assertions. So who were these "reputable researchers" you mentioned @25, the ones who have "thrown out over forty years ago ... the suggestion that airliners could be powered by hydrogen" and presumably the same ones who found, as you asserted @42, "hydrogen fuel cells for airliners ... to be impractical over forty years ago." All this with not a whiff of a reference.
Airbus were a big part of the Cryoplane project that, much more recently than 1975, concluded it was technically feasible to power air transport with hydrogen fuel cells except that the supply hydrogen wasn't available. And given that finding, we should not be so surprised to see Beoing continuing with their own researches.
And denisaf, if you want to have a bish-bash-bosh over a session at an AIAA conference, do pause a while. The AIAA hold many events that could be described as 'conference' and so this session you refer to will not be evident to someone reading your words. Thus without a reference to it you will appear as just another know-it-all mouthing off on the internet.
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johnkg at 22:17 PM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Airbus research hydrogen fuel cells. press release sept 2014
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denisaf at 17:14 PM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Hydrogen fuel cells for airliners were found to be impractical over forty years ago. The claim that Boeing and Airbus are researching that possibility needs a refernce. A session at a recent AIAA conference was devoted to research on using battery power for airliners without comment on the posssibility of obtaining material for the lithium ion batteries for long.
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bozzza at 14:13 PM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Political wherewithall can never be there to the extreme degree you ask it to be. People make money in this world and it's called enterprise.
The truth to the solution of this complex conundrum may lie in the fact that cogeneration makes complete loss of fossil fuel use absurd, for example.
...and I'm no science fiction writer!!
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mancan18 at 12:57 PM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
scaddenp @38 michael sweet @39
I do not disagree with you. I think it is desireable to move to renewables and stop using FF. I also believe that FF are not going to bring developing nations out of poverty, like the latest piece of spin from proponents of FF. The reason that FF are not a solution to world poverty have been well articulated in a more recent SkS article. Also, it doesn't pass the commonsense test. Building power grids and coal fired power stations in developing nations is not likely to be less exepensive than self-sufficient community based WWS simply because many of the people still live in villages. It would not be practical to run the power grid to them all.
Yes, I have expressed a personal opinion. But that opinion has been moulded by reading about the whole CO2 emissions and global warming issue in science magazines like Scientific American since the mid-1970s. The first time I read about rising CO2, the CO2 component of the Earth's atmosphere was 325 ppm, and the planet had half the number of people on it than it has now. All I have seen since then, is the slow and steady rise of CO2 to what it is today. So I am sorry that I didn't provide links to support my opinion, because it is an opinion formed over 40 years through reading a wide range of literature from astronomy, physics, mathematics, world history and economics. I use SkS to keep up to date with the latest findings.
What I am concerned about is the total disconnect between the realities of the current economic situation and the necessity of reducing emissions. I think that we are 18 years too late. The world should have taken serious action after Kyoto, because if we had, we would now be 18 years further ahead with the technology. Unfortunately Kyoto failed and there wasn't a clear message given to the FF companies about the long term viability of FF technology, after all FF companies comprise over half the top 10 of the wealthiest companies in the world. Changing from FF will be a huge loss for their investors who are some of the wealthiest people on the planet. It is still the case with the people who matter, those with the money to do something serious about global warming, is that short term profits still trump long term disadvantage. I hope that Paris will be a success. But that is not guaranteed. If this were the 1980s with Thatcher and Reagan in power at the height of the Cold War, it would be a success, because they were leaders who listened to their scientists, and when scientists articulated the CFC problem and the ozone layer, they listened. An international agreement to reduce CFCs was made by a disparate group of political entities, from arch conservatives to leaders of communitst nations. As a result, the level of CFCs reduced in the atmosphere and the ozone layer gradually repaired itself. The same sort of action is needed on CO2 today, with the developed world moving to zero emissions while developing the new technologies that the developing world will need. This article shows that zero emissions can be achieved. Sadly, I don't think that current leaders have the political wherewithall to make it happen.
Sorry for the epistle.
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michael sweet at 11:17 AM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Mancan18,
Jacobson account for increased demand in the USA in this paper. Total power use is lowered because electric motors are much more efficient than internal combustion engines. In the supplementary material and online here they describe how all nations in the world can convert to 100% renewable energy by 2050 including increased demand by 2050.
The remainder of your post seems to be your personal opinion. Can you link some peer reviewed material to support your ideas? I think if you read the article summarized here you will find that they address many of your concerns and show how they can be solved. This short summary has necessarily left out a lot of the details.
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scaddenp at 06:53 AM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Mancan, do we need to go to zero emissions? My understanding is that we need to dramatically reduce emissions, but if the West (responsible for most of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere) drops to zero, then the developing countries can use more FF and make the transition later. What is certain is that sooner or later the whole planet must transition from FF since they are a finite resource.
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scaddenp at 06:01 AM on 24 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Stranger, thin-film solar cells use tellurium, but the normal solar PV installations do not (and CSP does not).
I am well aware that turbines use those metals, but do you have data to support use per MW is higher in wind turbines than in modern steam turbines? (I dont know, I am asking). The claim that they are "essential" is also false, (building a generator with soft-iron electromagnet is something done at high school) but I am sure they improve cost/MW.
PS. I note that Enercon are already building wind turbines with only electromagnet - see here. Note that tech works for turbines from 350kW all the way to 7.5MW which must be among the world's largest.
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Stranger8170 at 22:00 PM on 23 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Sadcap scaddenp, Neodymium, terbium and dysprosium are essential ingredients in the magnets of wind turbines.
Solar panels need tellurium
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/09/19/rare-earth-metals-will-we-have-enough/
Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated.
[RH] I believe you're addressing scaddenp, not "Sadcap."
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mancan18 at 12:00 PM on 23 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Interesting article but only seems to concentrate on the US.
However, I'm not sure that it deals with all the issues.
It seems from the article that transforming energy generation to 100% WWS is theoretically possible using existing technologies, despite all the land area, transmission, manufacturing, material recycling and cost issues that need to be considered. However, I saw no mention of the increased generating capacity projections that will be needed. Local areas may well be able to be transformed to 100% WWS, however, it does not overcome the basic problem of reducing fossil fuel emissions to zero from the current global 83% reliance on using fossil fuels for power generation, while at the same time meeting the global demand for power in the future. In the 1950s, the global demand was about 3 TW. By 1990 it had risen to 12 TW. Today, it is 18 TW and it has been projected that capacity will need to rise to over 30 TW by 2050. Simply saying that we will need to reduce demand is not an answer. That means dooming many developing countries to a permanent state of poverty.
More efficient technologies and methods are needed if we (the human race) are to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. We most certainly need to reduce our emissions. However, if we are to realise that 30 TW figure by 2050 while keeping our emissions down to a level that will keep temperature increases below 2 degrees won't be an easy task. We will need all technologies, not just WWS. We will also need 4/5th generation nuclear, like the thorium reactors which consume all nuclear waste. We will need hydrogen as well as more efficient WWS technologies. We will need each private residential household to be self-sustaining and contribute any excess capacity back to the grid. We will need more power efficient consumerables. We will need to rebuild our infrastructure where our concrete urban areas and road systems become solar energy sinks and the water from our urban drainage systems can also be used to generate power. Even new corporate entities, where the price of a share could also include the technology to make your household self-sustaining and able to contribute to the grid, may also need to be explored; rather than simply relying on old corporate models, where the company builds a power station, whether it be a solar array, a wind farm, a nuclear power station or a coal fired power station, and sells power through the grid. It seems all technologies will be needed if we are to get anywhere near what will be required globally. It should be the high tech first World nations that are leading the way. Unfortunately, there are too many political ideologues stopping them from doing so to the extent that is needed, because they don't even recognise that there is a problem. In doing so they are threatening the very way of life that they want to protect.
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scaddenp at 07:12 AM on 23 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Stranger. "Since wind turbines and solar panels use so many rare earth elements". Can you expand this please? I didnt think conventional solar cells use any rare earth of significance, and usage in turbines would seem to be the same whether the turbine is driven by coal, nuclear, hydro, geothermal or wind? Electric cars are another story...
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PhilippeChantreau at 23:22 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
I think that apropriate technology can limit the amount of particulates emitted by biomass combustion. Jacobson et al proposes one specific scenario and attempts to show that the numbers can line up, and that's fine. However, what will happen in the real world will be another story.
I don't know if either governments or utilities will ever be persuaded to not have a constant baseload, in which case EGS is the answer. I also find it a little skewed to ignore biomass because of pollution, when solar at the scale described in the paper will require mining minerals on a scale bound to create serious environmental problems. Of all the possible solutions, I find EGS and off-shore wind to be the least destructive.
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michael sweet at 19:38 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
TonyW:
In other papers Jacobson has estimated the amount of materials required for building out their renewable scheme. Once the generating plants are built it will require less materials and energy to maintain them. They will produce more than sufficient power to perform those activities. They show in this paper that enough hydrogen is produced to supply all the needs of society (that is the point of the paper, all energy is produced).
They have plans on their website for all nations in the world to convert to 100% renewable. Obviously for any solution everyone has to adopt renewable strategies. Currently China is ahead of the US in renewable adoption stragegies. They require renewables to reduce their crippling air pollution.
This paper specificies what needs to be done for the largest economy in the world. It follows that the rest of the world can adopt similar plans to reach the renewable target. Plans will vary from country to country just as they vary from state to state depending on the local resources (Norway has a lot of hydro and Australia has a lot of sun).
To me your objections amount to "I doubt it" without any data to support your position.
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michael sweet at 19:22 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
@22 and 23 PhilippeChantreau and WRyan,
WRyan is correct that Jacobson has pollution concerns about burning any carbon containing material. It seems to me that the scheme described is an optimal system using renewables. If you were to build trash to energy plants it would be easier to move to 100% renewable energy. You would have to accept the pollution (which I think Phileppe and I do). Likewise, if hydrogen airplanes do not work out you could make jet fuel from seawater. If there are problems supplying baseload power, more EGS could be built.
This is very positive to me. It indicates that there is more than one way to get to the target of no fossil fuels. If we started installing wind and solar as described in the OP, we could make adjustments in the future as issues were discovered.
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TonyW at 18:55 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Others have pointed at the glaring defficiences in this paper. Where are the calculations of all the resources needed to build out this infrastructure? Will it be possible to build more, or maintain existing, once 100% of the energy use is from renewables? It doesn't mention whether the electrolysis of water can produce enough affordable hydrogen for those transportation needs that it envisages will use hydrogen (though someone else mentioned hydrogen powered aircraft had already been discarded), at the rate required. And how does the adpotion, or not, of this strategy by the rest of the world affect the feasibility or likelihood of it?
To me, this seems like more wishful thinking to avoid changing our behaviour.
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MA Rodger at 17:08 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
denisaf @25,
As pointed out @27, your "reputed researchers over forty years ago" must have grown fat on their own words that they had to eat. Unless you have yourself further words on that subject (and also on the re-use of materials required for solar/wind power given the comment @24), I wish you "bon appetit".
Your third point, the use of fossil fuel resources for purposes other than that power generation, there is presently much common use of infrastructure etc but I have not heard anybody warning that we would have to keep burning coal, oil or gas if we want to keep manufacturing plastics. So do explain.
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:01 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Rob Honeycutt@27,
bozzza was probably referring to the old proposal to burn hydrogen in airliner engines. Of course the material problems, including hydrogen embrittlement of the fuel lines in a machine that shakes a lot, made that very unlikely to be economical, as is the current inefficient energy requirements for generating the hydrogen. Why would people choose to use that much energy for that purpose?
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:21 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
denisaf @25... Well, interestingly, both Boeing and Airbus are currently working on hydrogen fuel cell technology for aviation, with an eye on passenger aircraft.
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bozzza at 13:08 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
@ 19: why does Renewable Energy require any more of a global industrial infrastructure than nuclear or coal?
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denisaf at 12:51 PM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Some time ago I sent a post to Professor Jacobson listing a number of unsound technical items in their proposal in Scientific American of November 2009. Some of those issues are covered in the comments here.
The suggestion that airliners could be powered by hydrogen was thrown out by reputable researchers over forty years ago but it is included in the proposal. another point is that 'renewable' systems (wind or solar) are made of irreplaceable materials so they can only be a tempoary source of a small amount of electricty. another point is that fossil fuels supply other products that WWS cannot supply.
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ubrew12 at 11:58 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
sunweb@19 said: "the sun and wind are renewable but the devices are not". Why not? Are they somehow used up in the producing of power? People seem to think that once rare earth metals are mined for solar and wind devices that these materials are no longer available once the devices have outrun their useful life. That's absurd. On the contrary, there would be a potent financial reason to reclaim these 'already refined' rare materials during decommissioning, rather than dig up ore's and refine them all over again.
If this is a new 'fossil-funded denial argument', its absurd on its face. Wind turbine materials can be reclaimed in the same way gas turbine or steam turbine materials are reclaimed.
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WRyan at 11:46 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
@22 PhillippeChantreau
The model does not include biomass because of the air pollution associated with burning biofuels. The aim of reducing air pollution appears to also be why they are using hydrogen production as a chemical store instead of a methanisation process.
With regard to enhanced geothermal, currently EGS is falling out of favour because the rapidly decreasing cost of wind and solar is making those sources cheaper than EGS. The weakness of EGS in a large-scale,100% renewable scenario is that its basically a constant power source (similar to nuclear or coal-fired power in current systems). So it can't ramp-up to take advantage of the high-margin periods when generation from wind and solar is low. This reduces its cost-effectiveness.
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PhilippeChantreau at 07:02 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
I see no biomass in the Jacobson et al analysis, yet there is a potential there that should be ignored. Almost any material can be prepared to be used in a biomass burning furnace, including herbivores waste products. I also think that the share given to geothermal is pessimistic.
Enhanced geothermal (EGS) should be given more attention. It has low impact, low risk, can function readily as baseload and is not nearly as expensive as nuclear. It looks so good on paper, one has to wonder why we're not pursuing more aggressively. According to the wiki entry, MIT has determined that the US alone has enough potential to power the entire world. It can also use CO2 instead of water, allowing for carbon sequestration. It does cause induced seismicity, but I don't think it's as bad as fracking. It's hard to see why it should represent such a small percentage in the mix as figures in the Jacobson graph.
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michael sweet at 06:08 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
IANW01,
Storage is not glossed over. Jacobson uses concentrated solar power with storage for most of their storage. Managemant of hydro power contributes a small amount. The system is overbuilt so that all power demands are met 100% of the time.
Budischak et al. give specific data for the PJM interconnection (around Pennsylvania) if you are interested in the Northern states. Detailed studies have found that it is cheaper to overbuild renewables rather than build a lot of storage. Budischak generated all their power internally, if they install interconnections to nearby grids they will require much less overbuild. Budischak also did not use any hydro from Canada for backup on dark, windless nights. They said using Hydro made it too easy to use 100% renewables.
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michael sweet at 05:55 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Sunweb,
Most other people disagree with you. If the energy used to manufacture a solar panel comes from other solar panels than the new solar panel will be sustainable. Current wind and solar generators are built using fossil power with a little renewable in it. As more renewable power is built the fraction of power used becomes more and more renewable. The paper described tells how we can build a system so that all power used is from sustainable sources. Once they are installed, all economic activity will be done using sustainable power.
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sunweb at 05:49 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
I do not think solar or wind energy collecting devices are sustainable, green or renewable. The reason is that they require a global industrial infrastructure for the manufacturing. When they must be replaced they will require a similar infrastructure. When I had to replace the pancake fan in my inverter, it had such a system behind it for manufacturing. So the sun and wind are renewable but the devices are not.
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sunweb at 05:32 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
It isn't spam if it is the researched truth. If I rephrase it but still suggest the videos with URLs is it spamming. It is a challenge to the technofantasy that solar and wind energy collecting devices are renewable, sustainable and green. I find the same censoring when it doesn't fit the world view of the moderator.
(snip)
Moderator Response:[RH] Moderation complaints are also not allowed here. Please refer to the commenting policy.
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sunweb at 05:28 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Moderator - I don't think installing "renewables" is sustainable or renewable. They are extensions of the fossil fuel supply system.
(snip)
All the human-made things in our world have an industrial history. Behind the computer, the T-shirt, the vacuum cleaner is an industrial infrastructure fired by energy (fossil fuels mainly). Each component of our car or refrigerator has an industrial history. Mainly unseen and out of mind, this global industrial infrastructure touches every aspect of our lives. It pervades our daily living from the articles it produces, to its effect on the economy and employment, as well as its effects on the environment.
Solar and wind energy collecting devices also have an industrial history. It is important to understand the industrial infrastructure and the environmental results for the components of the solar energy collecting devices so we don’t designate them with false labels such as green, renewable or sustainable. This is an essay challenging ‘business as usual’. If we teach people that these solar devices are the future of energy without teaching the whole system, we mislead, misinform and create false hopes and beliefs.
I have provided both charts and videos for the solar cells, modules, aluminum from ore, aluminum from recycling, aluminum extrusion, inverters, batteries and copper. Please note each piece of machinery you see in each of the videos has its own industrial interconnection and history. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/solar-devices-industrial-infrastructure.html
Moderator Response:[RH] Reposting a canned comment that was previously snipped for sloganeering is not acceptable.
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New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
keithpickering - I don't see anything in the Jacobson et al paper making claims against nuclear based on water usage - do you have a reference for that?
The Decarbonization document seems interesting on a quick look, but I can't agree with some of their base numbers. They assume 2,500GW of renewables (wind/solar) to match 400GW of nuclear, a factor of 6X, whereas Archer 2007 demonstrated that a mere 19 distributed and interconnected wind plants could maintain a reliable baseload power of 33% their average (47% the yearly average), a factor of perhaps 3X, half of what they sate, simply because the same weather pattern wouldn't cover (and potentially nullify) all of the wind farms at once.
Archet et al also discussed techniques for reducing transmission costs by ~20%, with regional concentrators for the wind power and interconnecting to the larger grid from there. But the major impact IMO is in understanding baseload capabilities.
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MA Rodger at 04:05 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
sunweb @12.
It is a lot of wind turbines being discussed but they have to be judged against the alternatives. This erecting of 600-odd turbines a day would yield the same generation capacity as having to build every fourth day one very very large multi-steam-plant coal power-station. You may feel the 2,400 turbines in 4 days is a bigger ask than on giant coal power-station but perhaps you have less understanding of how big such power-stations actually are.
As a comparison, the daily 600 turbines will contain something like 300,000 tons of material. That's 300,000 tons per day for 18 years.
That's a lot of material but of the same order as the daily materials required to build a giant power-station every 4 days. This web page shows a relatively small power-station (40% the size I'm working to) using 900,000 tons of concrete & 56,000 tons of steel.
And those 1,600 coal power-stations built over the 18 years would still need feeding with coal, a combined total of 55,000,000 tons of the stuff, day in, day out until they can be replaced by a better technology. So is it worth discussing this coal solution being green, sustainable or renewable? I think not.
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ianw01 at 03:55 AM on 22 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
A very interesting, and dare I say, optimistic paper. However, while filled with lots of numbers, it seems to gloss over the storage and long distance transmission required during calm winter evenings in the northern states. And if this is the path forward it's time to buy stocks in copper and rare earth element producers.
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