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Rob Honeycutt at 08:23 AM on 25 June 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
APT... "...how do we know ice core data for CO2 levels [are] more reliable?"
Perhaps because ice core data are actually measuring CO2 concentrations. It's a direct measurement of CO2 (or as direct as you can get before Keeling). Whereas, somata are clearly only a proxy for CO2.
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APT at 07:58 AM on 25 June 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
@Daniel Bailey
Thank you for the link to the Zeigler et al. paper. That's interesting and useful.
Since you had misunderstood my previous request, I had assumed that the link to the NOAA paleoclimate data related to temperatures rather than CO2 levels, but I see know that there are data relating to other factors affecting climate. It would be useful to know which ones relate specifically to CO2 levels but I'll search through and find them.
The rest of your post is, unfortunately, unhelpful, since I wasn't putting forward an argument of any kind but simply seeking information to counter an argument put forward by someone else. As a response to a polite request for information it is, like saddenp's, rather hostile in tone.
Even if I had been trying to cast doubt on climate science, which I wasn't, this type of response is uncalled for and hardly conducive to promoting understanding. -
APT at 07:42 AM on 25 June 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
@Scaddenp
My apologies for not giving a full reference or link to the relevant paper. I will do so in future posts. The one you've linked to is indeed the one I was referring to, and I thank you for including the published comment on it, I had read the reply to that comment but not the comment itself, which looks like it contains the kind of information I was looking for.At no point did I say I was sure of the superiority of stomatal records. Far from it in fact. I simply requested information about them in order to be able to explain why ice core data was considered more reliable. I am also well aware that far from being an argument against AGW, that paper supports the consensus. I'm sorry to say that I find your response to my simple and polite request for information to be rather hostile in tone and not very encouraging for those seeking information.
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scaddenp at 07:31 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Like any community, you will find people have different stances on nuclear and many without strong opinions one way or the other. Brave New Climate is generally the forum where nuclear is discussed.
The article was targeting proponents of fossil fuel who argue against the move to RE on grounds that you need FF to provide reliable power. Getting stuck on definitions of baseload etc is kind of missing the point which I thought was clear in the article if not necessarily in the title. I certainly do not see the article as anti-nuke.
I am frankly all for further development on new nuclear technologies - I have been convinced by MacKay's book that this is best option in some countries. However, nuclear, at the moment, does look to have high levelized costs and a lot of trouble getting investors, especially if governments refuse to indemify operators against accidents.
However, I live in a country generating 80% of electricity from renewables without subsidies and on track to lift that 90% by 2025 (thanks to small population and abundant hydro and geothermal). I am glad that I personally dont have to consider nuclear choices.
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Tom Curtis at 07:28 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition @160:
"I suspect it comes down to the following:
>Amount of variable/non variable RE
>Grid interlinks to other networks
>Access to pumped storage"
That sounds about right except that there is good reason to think that Pumped Heat Energy Storage (PHES) can substitute for pumped hydro storage, with approximately the same round trip efficiencies and no geographical limitation. It does have the disadvantage that it will degrade over time so that long term storage is not viable, but that is likely to be an infrequent problem (particularly with some pumped hydro available).
Further, you are ignoring the options make available through overbuild of renewable capacity with intermittent operations made possible by very cheap electricity supply when the generating network supplies in excess of demand. In more arid areas of the world, I suspect that will make large scale desalinization economic. In more temperate regions, electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen gas may become economic, and provide for long term energy storage.
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SuperPosition at 07:08 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
MA Rodger 159.
Thanks for the ingenious quote~vs~paraphrase (where I only said baseload) but for me the subject is closed, you win, whatever.
JH forgive me for asking in thread but I cannot sdee how else to ask:: can we perhaps discuss something offline?
I'm new here and it the tenor of SKS so far seems quite anti N which is not what I was expecting from a site that lauds data and debunks science myth - if so, fine. Just let me know off the record (email me) and I'll go - I honestly have no interest in being railed at and I'm sure RH et al would be pleased to see me go.
Moderator Response:[RH] No one (including me) has any problem with you commenting here. But, as noted originally, SkS is definitely not the place for endless back and forth discussions that go nowhere.
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SuperPosition at 06:32 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
It would be interesting to look at the various places around the world that have achieved high renewable energy deployment (say >50% of electrical generation) to see how each of them has overcome the supposed 'baseload problem'.
I think that by definition they would have to have a large percentage of constant o/p (baseload) RE in the 50% such as hydro and geothermal, and you probably find very few countries with that mix available to them.
Variable o/p RE in Germany has grown massively but grid operators are having to balance its networks by 'dumping' the resultant large spikes on their neighbours grid supplies - problems like these grow with the amount of variable generating output.
I suspect it comes down to the following:
>Amount of variable/non variable RE
>Grid interlinks to other networks
>Access to pumped storage
The difficulties are exemplified by a grid like the UK wihich has limited interlinks, limited hydro, limited PS (pumped storage) lots of potential wind and tidal power.
Figures vary but it seems to be circa 30% maximum for mix of variable RE without some sort of balancing mechanism plus grid reconfigurations and with current technology that has to be a lot of gas burning spinning reserve... so the actual savings will probably be less than it first looks.
If RE were all baseload as stated in the OP then this would not be an issue.
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Tom Curtis at 05:57 AM on 25 June 2015The Carbon Brief Interview: Christiana Figueres
Micawber @1, I quote from the abstract:
"Time-poor scientists, stripped of their intellectual property rights, under rewarded, poorly educated, and ruthlessly exploited by growth-obsessed commercial interests, missed catastrophic global warming and multiple extreme consequences. Climate scientists abandoned classical physics and Newton-Hooke field verification in favor of unverified beliefs, models, and apps. Climate studies confuse heat with temperature, do not include basal icemelt, density temperature-salinity function, Clausius-Clapeyron evaporation exponential skin temperature function, asymmetric brineheat sequestration, solar and tidal pumping, infra-red GHG heat trap, vertical tropical cells, freshwater warm pools; or wind-driven surface currents at 3 percent of windspeed. Climate model mistaken assumptions lead to the absurd conclusion that evaporation in the Labrador Sea at midnight in midwinter is greater than at the midday Equator."
That sort of rant is not found in scientific articles. Nor are the claims true. Given that the journal of publication mimics the name of a high impact physics journal to which it has no association, only publishes for a fee (and hence is reasonably described as a vanity press), has editorial board members with dubious or no academic affiliation (I particularly like 4 and 5), and its publisher (Council of Innovative Research) is listed on Beall's list of predatory journals, and given that the author published no papers from 1991-2011 (since when the majority of his publications have been in predatory press), I would take this article with a very large grain of salt.
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MA Rodger at 04:54 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
SuperPosition @158.
In this tiff over who said what, to be fair, the mention @137 was only mentioning nuclear power as exemplars within explanation. It did not introduce it as an issue for discussion. That occurred @139 with an implicit comment that said:-
"Why bother with all that infrastructure when you can build a simple base load supply, doesn't require interlinks and hugely costly (yet to be proven or deployable) storage at half the cost and at a smaller carbon footprint?"
I would say it is entirely reasonable to consider that this quote is advocating nuclear power as an alternative to renewables, unless the author of the quote can explain how it is that this "simple base load supply" could be construed as something else.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please refrain from turning this discussion into an adversial courtroom exchange.
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Micawber at 03:42 AM on 25 June 2015The Carbon Brief Interview: Christiana Figueres
The 2C limit has already been exceeded in the north Pacific according to a recent peer-reviewed paper. Climatologists have missed ocean warming and concentrated instead on the trivial atmospheric 7%.The paper shows 3C the North Pacific reached in 2013-15: No winter surfing at Tofino, Vancouver this past winter.
The warm water melts ice from beneath (basal icemelt).
The result is net cooling from large ocean warming. Hence the talk of a hiatus.
The authors report double exponential greenhouse gas accumulation and ice melt.
I had never heard of this doubling fractional growth in halving increments.
It is alarming if true.
I hope they are wrong but centuries of daily data suggest otherwise.The paper is online:
Matthews, J. Brian, 2015, Isle of Man, Galapagos and sunspot data show net cooling hid double exponential ocean warming danger: +3°C in 2014, +4°C likely by 2016, Journal of Advances in Physics, 9(2), 2355-2371, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2201.6169, http://cirworld.org/journals/index.php/jap/article/view/4596/pdf_178
The prediction of 4C by 2016 will be easily testable.
There is not way to stop it if true.It would be worth erring on the side of caution and taking this seriously.
It suggests the Paris Conference will need to take much more urgent decisions.PS The author was a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and Royal Geographical Society in 1963 and is a 50 year American Geophysical Union Gold Award Scientist.
It seems to be well founded.Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated.
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SuperPosition at 00:33 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Apologies JH - I will of course oblige, but I think it should be noted that I am the responder to the question/accusation.
Moderator Response:[JH] Which is why I let this comment stand.
BTW, all commenters should abide by the SkS Comments Policy prohibition of excessive repeitition.
In addition, please avoid the temptation to post the "final word" because it rarely is.
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SuperPosition at 00:03 AM on 25 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Do not blame me for your failed attempt to support nuclear. Everyone else can read what we have both posted.
Well I'm certainly not anti solution - You raised the subject of nuclear in 137 - I had not referred to it - I honestly and politely responded to your comment. I certainly don't think it witchcraft or an instrument of Satan.
If you feel so strongly against nuclear then I'm surprised you started a conversation about how clean, safe and inexpensive it is compared to most RE.
I am pro a solution to AGW/ACC that is cheapest, safest and the lowest emissions available baseload capable grid ready technology applied as per the DDPP [SDSN & IDDRI 2014] plan. I am genuinely am sorry you disagree - I wish more people could get past their prejudices on this.
You have not produced any peer reviewed data to back your wild claim that RE cannot generate baseload power.
That is because that is not my position - Some RE such as hydro is totally constant baseload capable - Others such as wind, solar and tidal is variable and needs dynamic load matching/balancing to work on a grid.
The most common definition of baseload is "the permanent minimum load that a power supply system is required to deliver." - Obviously a source that is variable does not conform to that definition.
It is a noun - a matter of definition of technical parlance and thus requires no 'study' peer reviewed or not. Strange idea.
Variable RE is currently accepted into grid architecture through load balancing the dispach to accomodate the variability of output - that is done because on its own it is NOT a baseload capable supply. The system accomodates it dynamically.
If you read Budischak you will find that they calculated the cost of power while spilling (wasting) the obvious excess power that they generate with their system.
I have read it and yes, if you read back you willsee that is what I said earlier. Thanks for paraphrasing me. I'm glad we agree on something.
A constructive use for the excess power will be found. That will make the power even cheaper than Budischak estimate.
I hope so and I appreciate your optimism, but we are talking about huge amounts of power and the grid has to remain finely balanced, hence the benefit of a constant energy baseload supply - In Denmark and Germany it is causing many grid stability problems and the the excesses are dumped onto neighbouring country grids which risks collapsing them - something that countries like the UK could not easily do.
Currently, wind and solar are not used for baseload because they only recently became economic
No, the reason is that the world is round, the Sun sets and it has weather.
I hate quoting wiki, but firstly; this isn't contraversial to anyone and secondly; it actually contains an abundance of links for you to explore.
Moderator Response:[JH] As noted on your prior comment, you are skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. Future repetitive comments will likely be summarily deleted.
In other words, this discussion has run its course.
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CBDunkerson at 23:19 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
It would be interesting to look at the various places around the world that have achieved high renewable energy deployment (say >50% of electrical generation) to see how each of them has overcome the supposed 'baseload problem'.
I know Iceland uses geothermal for baseload. Several other countries (e.g. Norway, Columbia, Austria, Brazil, New Zealand, Canada, etc) have large amounts of hydropower for baseload. Denmark is mostly wind power, but I think still using fossil fuels for baseload... though the fact that they've been able to rapidly scale back fossil fuels to a minority of total generation, which they plan to eliminate entirely in the next few decades, shows how small an issue 'baseload' really is.
Conversely, many poor countries like Lesotho now have low cost variable wind and solar power as nearly their only forms of electrical generation. Giving them near 100% renewable electricity without worrying about baseload at all. Apparently not having electricity some of the time is still vastly better than never having electricity. Go figure.
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MA Rodger at 22:35 PM on 24 June 2015The latest global temperature data are breaking records
Tom Curtis @64.
The +0.6ºC conversion given in AR4 - pre-industrial temperature to HadCRUT4 anomaly 1990-2000 - does appear in various places in that report. In searching it out I was usually more pleased to at last have found something explicit and wasn't too bothered which Working Group was responsible. WG1AR5 Ch2SM.4.3.3 give the conversion of HadCRUT4 1850-1900 anomaly to the 1986-2005 reference period as of 0.61ºC which suggests the latter can be substituted as a worthy alternative to the WG2AR4 figure, which effectively is what WG1AR5 does, as does WG2AR5.
In terms of finding a more authoritative statement within WG1 on the issue of pre-industrial global temperature, the whole thing does manage to fall between the stools. AR5 WG1 SPM surely should provide the references but the two relevant places fail to deliver. SPM B makes no mention of the issue. SPM E makes the promising note that:-
"Based on the longest global surface temperature dataset available, the observed change between the average of the period 1850–1900 and of the AR5 reference period is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] °C. However, warming has occurred beyond the average of the AR5 reference period. Hence this is not an estimate of historical warming to present (see Chapter 2)."
But there the trail runs dry. WG2AR5 is the document that tells us how bad AGW will be at various levels of impact defined by WG1. WG2SPM presents us with the asertion "°C relative to 1850–1900, as an approximation of preindustrial levels" with reference then to WG1AR5 Chapter2.4.
If, as wili insists, we should be providing a number for 'temperature rise above pre-industrial to date' and singing it from the rooftops, there remains the question of what the pre-industrial (or 1850-1900 as a usable approximation) should be compared with. The last 12 months of HadCRUT4 yields 0.93ºC. But this surely could be accused of being cherry-picked. Ditto the last complete calendar year.The comparison used in WG1AR5 SMP B is the last 10 complete calendar years of the record which AR5 using 2003-12 puts at 0.78ºC. Today it would be a little higher at 0.81ºC.
And then HadCRUT4 has its critics. So for comparison, using Cowtan & Way 2.0 yields 1.00ºC for the last 12 months & 0.89ºC for the last 12 calendar years.
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michael sweet at 21:22 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition,
Do not blame me for your failed attempt to support nuclear. Everyone else can read what we have both posted.
You have not produced any peer reviewed data to back your wild claim that RE cannot generate baseload power. On the other hand, I have referred to peer reviewed data that show RE can generate baseload power at a reasonable cost without spinning reserve or storage. You have never mentioned that paper and its conclusions. Budischak et al 2013, linked previously in this thread here and here, have demonstrated using data that it is more economical to overbuild RE to obtain baseload coverage. Storage is not as economic. Your long discussions about the cost of storage are moot because it is not economic. Serious people looking at RE propose overbuilding generation and not storage.
From Budischak 2014:
" By looking at the results in Table 3, it is apparent that a 99.9%
renewable electricity system with either GIV or hydrogen storage
and using estimated 2030 costs will be cheaper than today’s
current electricity price, if externalities are included.
Furthermore, a 90% renewable electricity system with 2030 cost
estimates can meet load at costs below today’s without
externalities."The 90% figure is without storage. They use about 7-72 hours of storage for 99.9% of power. If they linked to nearby grids (Canada adjacent to the north has a lot of hydro that is cheap for storage and the US Midwest has excess wind) or used load shifting they might avoid any storage at all.
If you read Budischak you will find that they calculated the cost of power while spilling (wasting) the obvious excess power that they generate with their system. I personally find it impossible to believe that engineers will not find a use for cheap power that is only available part of the time. A constructive use for the excess power will be found. That will make the power even cheaper than Budischak estimate. Backup power supplies for the rare occasions it is needed are already built to provide peak power, since baseload units cannot load follow and provide peak power. Costs for RE have declined substantially since Budischak 2013 was written.
Currently, wind and solar are not used for baseload because they only recently became economic and not enough wind and solar have been installed for them to be used for that purpose. That does not mean that in the future more RE cannot be installed and then it will be used for baseload. Meanwhile, every KW generated using RE is a kilowatt that was not generated using fossil fuels.
Your claim that it is impossible for RE to provide baseload is false. Your argument is based on a false premise. The OP is correct and you are wrong.
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longjohn119 at 19:45 PM on 24 June 2015New study links global warming to Hurricane Sandy and other extreme weather events
I beleive there is also a third, Fluid Dynamics ... And they kind of crossover into each others realms
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SuperPosition at 18:46 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
The issue I raised was, the claim that "Renewables can't provide baseload power" as a "myth"
It is true that otherwise variable RE generators can produce net baseload power when paired with spinning reserve or long term storage (n+ hours)
Is it pedantic to say that such conditions render the terminology useless and thus the claim in OP as overstated and SkS is exceeding its brief in claiming otherwise?
The fact remains that the RE and grid industry as a whole do not refer to variable RE as a baseload supply.
Moderator Response:[JH] You are now skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. Future repetitive comments may be summarily deleted.
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SuperPosition at 18:45 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Tom Curtis 152
Then you haven't even tried: Electric Mountain
Actually I've been there - it is very impressive indeed.
But I'm sorry but that is not national grid storage as it cannot be expanded to that function - it is 'operating reserve' pumped storage that even from full would only run for a maximum of 6 hours which takes longer to fill than it runs.
Whilst the principle is completely valid, the reality is that it is not expandable to the UK grid - very few countries have the geology where that would be possible.
I'll try to find it but I remeber a figure that the UK geology only had circa 2GW of additional potential hydro/storage and most of that was impractical to access.
Incidentally For it to be true V-RE grid storage as per the OP, you would need sufficient excess RE to guarantee supply whilst simultaneously charging/pumping your system whilst accounting for a storage loss of 75%.
Although Electric Mountain discharges for upto 6 hours it can take days to fill from empty depending on grid status/surplus and apparently often runs in the lower third of capacity so it would not be useful for much beyond covering peak loads and energy arbitrage - which is what it does.
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Tom Curtis at 18:36 PM on 24 June 2015Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
chriskoz @79, thankyou for correcting my corrections. Unfortunately I do have a history of messing up the arithmetic, especially on my insomnia specials (ie, posts made when I try to make productive use of my insomnia such as the one above).
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Tom Curtis at 18:00 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
SuperPosition @151:
"I cannot find a single grid providor who has plans to deploy grid storage which seems to indicate that, beyond specialist applications for special regions, there is no grid deployment"
Then you haven't even tried:
"Water is stored at a high altitude in Marchlyn Mawr reservoir and is discharged into Llyn Peris through the turbines during times of peak electricity demand. It is pumped back from Llyn Peris to Marchlyn Mawr during off-peak times. Although it uses more electricity to pump the water up than it generates on the way down, pumping is generally done at periods of low demand, when the energy is cheaper to consume.
The power station comprises six 300MW GEC generator/motors coupled to Francis-type reversible turbines. The generators are vertical shaft, salient pole, air cooled units each having 12 electromagnetic poles weighing 10 tonnes each, producing a terminal voltage of 18 kV, synchronous speed is 500 rpm. From standstill, a single 450-tonne generator can synchronise and achieve full load in approximately 75 seconds. With all six units synchronised and spinning-in-air (Water is dispelled by compressed air and the unit draws a small amount of power to spin the shaft at full speed), 0 MW to 1800 MW load can be achieved in approximately 16 seconds.[18] Once running, the station can provide power for up to 6 hours before running out of water."
>170 more additional storage systems currently operational (some, but not all are experimental)
The list is not exhaustive, not including the commerical pumped hydro facility at Wivenhoe dam near Brisbane (for example), and presumably missing others as well.
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SuperPosition at 16:26 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
...moving back to what I was saying...
Whilst it is gratifying that people seem to acknowledge to some degree or other that the OP wording is incorrect, it is a shame that no one seems to want to change it given the given stated inention of SkS to attack incorrect or poorly applied science.
To what standard should the reporting of fact be held on a site that prides itself in attacking misinformation?
Many green groups have an 'RE or nothing' tenor to their agenda and I would expect that SkS and its followers would have an open mind to alternative low carbon energy (and industry) given that the intention is to effect a reduction of AGW/ACC.
Most Green groups cite RE storage as the solution to variable RE, but I cannot find a single grid providor who has plans to deploy grid storage which seems to indicate that, beyond specialist applications for special regions, there is no grid deployment - surely a pre-requisite to large scale RE rollout as championed by those bodies.
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SuperPosition at 16:05 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
PhilippeChantreau 149.
How disappointing! This was all just a convoluted ploy to advocate for nuclear power.
I hope that was not directed at me Phillippe - I was not the one that raised it, it was Micheal Sweet at 137.
I do not think a list of RE compared to other energy supplies is off topic in that context. It is only data and should not have caused alarm - I cartainly do not think I deserved the attack and negative comment.
In any event, given that the discussion is basload power capabilities (or not) of variable RE, then the comparison with the lowest form of carbon baseload supply (nuclear) are inevitable.
I cannot help but note the long discussion of fusion [112 to 124] passed entirely without thunder from above.
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PhilippeChantreau at 15:19 PM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
How disappointing! This was all just a convoluted ploy to advocate for nuclear power. That is off-topic on this thread, but I' discuss it on another more appropriate one if pointed to it.
Being from France, I am well aware of the advantages of nuclear, for a country that has few or no other options. However, the disadvantages are becoming more and more noticeable these days, even in France. These are topics of r another thread. The wording of the OP may not be ideal but it does not contain anything disingenious and overall presents things well.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:46 PM on 24 June 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #25B
gregbcharles@2,
The NOAA data is available here.
The presentation is a little quirky. The default is set up to compare the month from any year to the same month from previous years. However, in the Timescale options the last choice "Year-to-Date" will only plot the year to date in the bar-chart but the table below the chart will show all the monthly data from the Start Year value.
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chriskoz at 14:20 PM on 24 June 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #25B
While world is getting ready for Paris COP, Australia is going backwards with their renewable energy:
Renewable energy target slashed
The government believes the reduced target will address an oversupply of energy in the market and save consumers from possible price hikes had the larger target not been reached.
That's the most silly explanation I've seen for so far. When something is in oversupply, the prices should actually drop, at least on a free market that I know. What kind of marketting force prompts OZ gov to conclude such explanation that does not make any sense?
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chriskoz at 13:18 PM on 24 June 2015Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
Tom@78,
Thanks for your explanation which makes perfect qualitative sense to me.
Your numbers do not make good sense though (careful back-envelope arithmetics may not be one your strongest skill) because you seem to sway with your energy numbers and are not sure which numbers are correct.
I checked your numbers from last paragraph, based on the energy consumption data from wikipedia (Table of Regional energy use kWh/capita - column Year 2008, which is fine for our estimates here):
Given 8760 hours/year:
Per capita:
USA - 87,216kWh, or 87,216/8760 = almost 10kW
World - 21,283kWh or 21,283/8760 = 2.43kW
So, current world per capita power is ~1/5 of US power
Total:
USA - 10kW * 300mln = 3TW
World - 2.43kW * 7bilion = 17TW
If you want to give world per capita power the same as US you get:
17TW * 5 = 85TW
Then if you want to increase population from 7 to 10bln you get:
85TW*10/7 = 120TW
which is exactly 1/5 of your number 600TW
So, your original estimate "600 TW as sufficient for 10 billion at 5 times current US per capita energy usage" was spot on and you made a mistake by "correcting" it.
Now, for the radiative forcing of those numbers, if current world total energy of 17TW yields 0.028 W/m2 (from Flanner (2009) I quoted above), then, your number of 10bln of 5 times US affluence 600TW yields 0.028*600/17 = 1W/m2 which is close to your original number (your "corrected" number 0.06 W/m^2 is way too low).
I agree that such scenario (although unrealistic) results in signifficant forcing. The more realistic (frankly quite likely if we do not stop FF burning) scenario - 10bln reaching current US affluence would be 0.2W/m2 which is within the range of solar variations.
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scaddenp at 13:00 PM on 24 June 2015It's too hard
I dont think Guy McPherson has much scientific support for his claims. The consensus position in WG2 of the IPCC reports certainly doesnt support that.
I also find it odd that someone should think that because we are in a deep hole, it makes sense to dig even deeper. Any scientific assessment of what the effects of climate change has error bars, and maybe things will pan out at the top end of that error bar if we are very unlucky. However, continued emissions is guaranteeing that things will be worse than if we stopped now.
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anticorncob6 at 12:26 PM on 24 June 2015It's too hard
What about a subset of the "It's too hard" people who are saying that it is too late? According to them, even if all emissions ended today, we have already pumped so much heat into the atmosphere that catastrophic climate change will still happen. Therefore we shouldn't even bother with trying to fix global warming, and all we should do now is simply live the best we can until the end. I know Guy McPherson thnks this way.
Is there accuracy to this claim?
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Daniel Bailey at 09:52 AM on 24 June 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
"I understand that stomatal index data has certain problems, but then so does ice core data"
Feel free to delineate what you feel those limitations might be and cite your sources. The ice core data are among the best we have for the past 800,000 or so years for atmospheric gases. You're going to have to do better than just an argument from incredulity.
"some Holocene studies seem pretty robust"
"seem" is hardly an objective assessment.
"Surely any issues with the stomatal data could be taken into account"
Surely. But still an argument from incredulity. This venue deals in evidence. Since you seem bent on making an assertion about ice core CO2 data, the burden of proof is on you, the claimant, to mount an evidence-based claim and to support it with links to the primary literature.
"Stomata studies showing high levels of CO2 in the relatively recent past are being used to suggest that current levels are not unusual in human history"
Citation, please.
"what about studies suggesting higher CO2 at the end of the Younger Dryas"
Nebulous assertion; citation please.
"I can't find reconstructions of CO2 levels over the last several thousand years that use anything other than ice core data, although reconstructions over millions of years use stomata and ocean sediment for the earliest periods"
Off the top of my head, Ziegler et al 2013 does just that. Further, it covers the period of the past 360,000 years.
"how do we know ice core data for CO2 levels is more reliable"
How do you know that ice core data is less reliable than stomata data?
"aren't stomata indices useful proxies"
Yep. When used with proper contexts. Which is how they are used.
"Are there other proxies which could be used to back up ice core CO2 results"
There are. I gave you a link to them in my previous comment. Here it is, again.
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nigelj at 09:50 AM on 24 June 2015New study links global warming to Hurricane Sandy and other extreme weather events
I live in New Zealand, and we have just had one of our worst flooding events in recorded history. I suppose as a small island nation, and given higher atmospheric moisture, we are particularly at higher risk of more intense floods or possibly more floods. Any experts have any thoughts on our levels of risk, and the most likely scenario?
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scaddenp at 09:49 AM on 24 June 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
APT - It is easier to have a discussion when you properly cite the papers you are referring to. I assume it is this.
My understanding is that problems with stomata are much larger than with ice core and only used when ice core is unavailable. You might like to read the published comment on your reference before being so sure of the superiority of the stomata record.
There are two further points of note:
1/ the record of high CO2 at time of Younger Dryas is being presented to support that rapidly rising CO2 levels cause climate change.
2/ The isotope signatures of CO2 at YD indicate different CO2 source to what is present today.
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SuperPosition at 08:24 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
[RH] You're being disingenuous as to your predilection for nuclear over other forms of RE. SkS is not the proper site to have an endless discussion that accomplishes nothing. Michael Sweet has made a reasonable suggestion that you write up your own article and submit it to the SkS author's group for review. It's a process all SkS articles go through. If it's a well cited and compellingly argued piece it will likely get posted.
Rob, if you read the thread you will see that the discussion is about RE and the subject of nuclear was raised by Michael Sweet on 137 - not by me.
He demanded my rsponse. If [JH] had any issue with Michael Sweet raising it (or my responding to his demand) then I am unaware of it.
In any eventuality, I struggle to see how that could be construed as me being off topic disingenuous but I am sorry that you think it is.
Moderator Response:[RH] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Continuing an off topic conversation is against policy. A reasonable path forward has been suggested. Further comments will be deleted.
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wili at 07:43 AM on 24 June 2015The latest global temperature data are breaking records
Thanks for the discussion. And nice to know that somebody thinks that 2 degrees is both attainable and not too high.
Tom wrote: "it is convenient to communicate in round numbers"
I would say not just convenient, but effective. And that's most of my point. If we are about to or have already hit a round-number milepost (1 degree C above pre-industrial levels), we should be making more hay about it. Do people disagree with me on that?
No one knows what will wake up the folks that need waking up, but they need all the prodding they can get.
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wili at 07:31 AM on 24 June 2015New study links global warming to Hurricane Sandy and other extreme weather events
Thanks for the clarifications. John's quote was particularly helpful. I still think the main article above could be edited a bit for clarity.
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Tom Curtis at 06:39 AM on 24 June 2015The latest global temperature data are breaking records
MA Rodger @63, I noticed that. My specific claim was that WG1 of the IPCC has not explicitly established a benchmark. WG2 (and the SPM) of necessity have done so, but discussing the difficulties in making the estimate, and uncertainties are beyond the WG2's brief. Therefore their statement should be considered a useful benchmark but not authoratitive (IMO). The AR4 WG2's clearest statement on the issue is on Box 19.2:
"Box 19.2. Reference for temperature levels
Levels of global mean temperature change are variously presented in the literature with respect to: pre-industrial temperatures in a specified year e.g., 1750 or 1850; the average temperature of the 1961-1990 period; or the average temperature within the 1990-2000 period. The best estimate for the increase above pre-industrial levels in the 1990-2000 period is 0.6°C, reflecting the best estimate for warming over the 20th century (Folland et al., 2001; Trenberth et al., 2007). Therefore, to illustrate this by way of a specific example, a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels corresponds to a 1.4°C increase above 1990-2000 levels. Climate impact studies often assess changes in response to regional temperature change, which can differ significantly from changes in global mean temperature. In most land areas, regional warming is larger than global warming (see Christensen et al., 2007). Unless otherwise specified, this chapter refers to global mean temperature change above 1990-2000 levels, which reflects the most common metric used in the literature on key vulnerabilities. However, given the many conventions in the literature for baseline periods, the reader is advised to check carefully and to adjust baseline levels for consistency every time a number is given for impacts at some specified level of global mean temperature change."From the wording (ie, "reflecting the best estimate for warming over the 20th century"), the method of the estimate seems to be simply to assume that preindustrial temperatures approximately equal early twentieth century temperatures. That may be an inaccurate perception, but no method is explicitly stated, nor paper discussing the issue cited.
For what it is worth, using that estimate and HadCRUT4, 2014 is 0.89 C above preindustrial temperatures.
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SuperPosition at 06:31 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
sorry JH, point taken.
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SuperPosition at 06:27 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
michael sweet 145.
It is a comparison of RE and base load supplies, one of which is nuclear - If you want the site to be a 'nuclear free' zone then why not create a page with that in mind.
Incidentally, I was the one discussing RE and storage whereas you raised the issue of alternates.
Moderator Response:[RH] You're being disingenuous as to your predilection for nuclear over other forms of RE. SkS is not the proper site to have an endless discussion that accomplishes nothing. Michael Sweet has made a reasonable suggestion that you write up your own article and submit it to the SkS author's group for review. It's a process all SkS articles go through. If it's a well cited and compellingly argued piece it will likely get posted.
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michael sweet at 06:21 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition:
Your post supporting nuclear is off topic on this thread. If you want to dsicuss nuclear wirte a post for it. As I stated above, these discussions are invariably a waste of time.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please resist the temptation to perform the role of Moderator. Thank you.
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SuperPosition at 06:12 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
It is common for commentors like you to come to SkS and make wild claims about how low CO2 for nuclear is, how the power will be too cheap to meter and that they have no safety issues. This generally results is a long, fuitless argument because there is little data supplied (I see no citations to support your wild claims about nuclear).
All the more surprising that you didn't think to check the data on the IPCC or any other reputable site - I can only imagine why you would wilfully remain unknowing.
Why would you argue with the facts at hand?
(1) Cost
Technology Cost range (£/MWh)
Natural gas turbine, no CO2 capture 55 – 110
Natural gas turbines with CO2 capture 60 – 130
Biomass 60 – 120
*Onshore wind 80 – 110
New nuclear 80 - 92.50 (guaranteed from 2023)
Coal with CO2 capture 100 – 155
*Solar farms 125 – 180
*Offshore wind 150 – 210
*Tidal power 155 – 390*These renewable energy costs exclude the grid huge changes and unknown cost of storage that renewable solar, wind, tidal generators would require to be deployed on a large scale.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#United_Kingdom_.282010.29
(2) Emissions
2014 IPCC, Global warming potential of selected electricity sources
Lifecycle CO₂ equivalent (including albedo effect) from selected electricity supply technologies. Arranged by decreasing median (gCO₂eq/kWh) values.
Technology:: Median values
Currently commercially available technologies
Coal – PC 820
Biomass – cofiring with coal 740
Gas – combined cycle 490
Biomass – dedicated 230
Solar PV – utility scale 48
Solar PV – rooftop 41
Geothermal 38
Concentrated solar power 27
Hydropower 24
Wind offshore 12
Nuclear 12
Wind onshore 11
Pre‐commercial technologies
CCS – Coal – PC 220
CCS – Coal – IGCC 200
CCS – Gas – combined cycle 170
CCS – Coal – oxyfuel 160
Ocean (tidal and wave) 17http://report.mitigation2014.org/report/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf
(3) Safety
Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
Coal – global average 170,000 (50% global electricity)
Coal – China 280,000 (75% China’s electricity)
Coal – U.S. 15,000 (44% U.S. electricity)
Oil 36,000 (36% of energy, 8% of electricity)
Natural Gas 4,000 (20% global electricity)
Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
Wind 150 (~ 1% global electricity)
Hydro – global average 1,400 (15% global electricity)
Nuclear – global average 90 (17% global electricity w/Chernobyl &Fukushiima)**The dozen or so U.S. deaths in nuclear have all been in the weapons complex or are modeled from general LNT effects. The reason the nuclear number is small is that it produces so much electricity per unit. There just are not many nuclear plants. And the two failures have been in GenII plants with old designs. All new builds must be GenIII and higher, with passive redundant safety systems, and all must be able to withstand the worst case disaster, no matter how unlikely.
If you genuinely want to discuss the issues then fine, but if your beliefs are so fragile that you have to throw cheap accusations then you are on your own with a mirror and a box of Andrex.
You choose.
Moderator Response:[JH] Your histrionics are not welcome on this website. Please cease and desist.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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michael sweet at 06:06 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
SUperposition,
Currently in the open market wind and solar are the cheapest and most efficatious methods of generating power. They are being built at a rapid rate around the world. As costs decrease more will be built. Investors are unwilling to take a gamble on your choice of nuclear. There are a number of studies, including the one I cited above, that estimate the cost and feasibility of implementing wind and solar. Your claim that these costs are uknown is simply false. This technology exists today.
Nuclear would take at least 10 years to start to build out even if people changed their opinions today. There is no way nuclear could be done quickly. By contrast, wind and solar are cheap enough to compete without subsidy against fossil fuels with large subsidies. No unsubsidized nuclear is proposed or has been built in the US in decades.
You are making up problems with wind and solar that do not exist. For example spinning reserve, speed of build out and cost of storage issues.
SkS has a large number of threads. Some of them are tangental to the central theme of AGW scientific facts. For example the thread about hte Popes' work last week. If you want a nuclear thread write it yourself.
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SuperPosition at 05:52 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Tom Curtis 134.
If you do not find any substantial errors in the summary, then your problem comes down to:
1) Some wording in the article can be improved to avoid ambiguity; and (possibly)
2) The wording of the "myth" needs to be restated to better reflect "pseudo-skeptic" arguments.
The later because pseudo-skeptics do not argue that storage technology is not currently adequate to make a full renewable plus storage system capable of meeting baseload demand, but also that they will never be able to do so, either as a technical impossibility or because it will be to expensive.
Given that the contributors to SkS are volunteers, if your points are (1) and (2), how would you word the myths and or sections of the article you consider dodgy without at the same time implying (falsely) that renewable energy could never provide baseload power.
Well both 1 and 2 as already stated.
You'll have to excuse me but I do not know what a 'pseudo-skeptic' is plus, with respect,your premise seems a little convoluted.
In context it seem you equate querying the efficacy of RE with climate change denial. I hope not.
(1) The issue addressed by SKS is climate change. Yes?
(2) In absolute terms the solution to AGW/ACC is reducing or removing anthropogenic (human) forcing on the climate.
I wish to achieve (1) by implementing (2)
I am guessing that you agree.
>>
There are a number of methods that can be deployed - therefore I hope that you agree that whilst many are applicable, the best methods are the ones that meet the criteria of efficacy and affordability accepting that the missing of either would result in faulure.
Simply put, that is:: speed, availability, efficiency and cost. Yes?
One of those solutions is RE with an unknown, unplanned cost and technology component that must be available if large scale deployment is intended.
In summary, should SKS be proscriptive over what the solutions to AGW are or should it concern itself solely with addressing the issue of AGW denial.
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APT at 05:49 AM on 24 June 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
@Daniel Bailey
Sorry, perhaps I didn't phrase my question clearly enough. My question was specifically about reconstructions of CO2 levels, not temperature data.
I'm aware of the multiple proxies used for temperature reconstruction, but I can't find reconstructions of CO2 levels over the last several thousand years that use anything other than ice core data, although reconstructions over millions of years use stomata and ocean sediment for the earliest periods.
Given that stomata-based data indicate higher levels of CO2, how do we know ice core data for CO2 levels is more reliable? Once local variability and other factors are taken into account, aren't stomata indices useful proxies? Are there other proxies which could be used to back up ice core CO2 results? -
michael sweet at 05:23 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition,
Please read the Budischak citation I posted earlier. When they studied a large power systen in the US they found that they got sufficient power with RE. Your scenrio is just your imagination running wild. When you do not know what you are talking about it is a waste of time for me to respond.
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michael sweet at 05:20 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition,
It is common for commentors like you to come to SkS and make wild claims about how low CO2 for nuclear is, how the power will be too cheap to meter and that they have no safety issues. This generally results is a long, fuitless argument because there is little data supplied (I see no citations to support your wild claims about nuclear). If someone who was informed about nuclear, you for instance, took the time to write and article for SkS; we could all review the relevant literature and than we could agree on what the data are.
I have invited several posters like you in the past to write such a post but none of them were willing to do the work and write it. Perhaps all the nuclear proponents know in their hearts that nuclear will look stupid when the data is collected in one place. Show that I am wrong and write a post so we can review all the data. It is a waste of time to post it again in an unrelated thread where it can never be found again in the future.
Write a post supporting nuclear and send it in. I have written several posts in the past, it is not hard. The volunteers at SkS will review it and, if you do a reasonable job, it will be posted. Then we will all know what a great technology nuclear is. If you cannot be bothered to do the work, like everyone else who supports nuclear, don't bother the rest of us with your unsupported wild claims.
This article was written by someone who supports wind and solar. They took the time to write an article supporting their technology. Nuclear posters do not care enough to write anything so they have no posts.
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SuperPosition at 05:16 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
michael sweet 137.
Your argument is built on a list of falicities. RE energy does not have to look exactly the same as current power generation. For example, it is not required to have so much unused excess capacity all night, and it does not require spinning reserve all the time like nuclear power. You can make any idea look bad by raising enough straw men.
I'm sorry, but I think you missed the point of what i was saying or are just looking for an argument. I'll assume the former.
I have no idea what sort of grid you envisage - if you are asleep at night you still need a grid that does not drop below demand.
On a still winters night when your sollar array's have been under two feet of snow for the last week and your massive 20hrs of grid storage is long depleted the power has to come from somewhere.
Why bother with all that infrastructure when you can build a simple base load supply, doesn't require interlinks and hugely costly (yet to be proven or deployable) storage at half the cost and at a smaller carbon footprint?
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SuperPosition at 05:01 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition 134, what part of this summary from the OP do you consider inaccurate:
The claim that RE is baseload when by definition it is not - storage may be just around the corner, but is only a potential option to accomodate variable RE onto a grid. Possibly most important is the issue of cost that would quite possbibly double that of generation is ignored.
A solution that neither we nor the developing world can afford is not an option at all. Is it.
At present, the only RE supply that is (marginally) cheaper than (for example) nuclear is onshore wind.
OnShore wind requires grid extensions and storage (at 85% efficiency) to make it work and even then it would also require gas backup with our current technology and quite possibly hugely costly HVDC ibnterlinks.
The same for CSP with storage in thiose locations where it is feasible.
In contrast, Nuclear is high density, has a smaller CO₂ footprint, it requires no grid changes or special consideration and the technology is available 'off the shelf' as it were; considerably faster than RE with storage.
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michael sweet at 04:54 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Superposition,
No-one builds storage now because it is not cost effective. It is cheaper to just sell all your power onto the grid. Who wants to build a bunch of hydro storage (like was done for nuclear in the 1970's) and than have a white elephant. It is not necessary to have any storage with less than 40% RE supply. Budischak, cited above, has shown that storage is not generally economic. With the decrease in RE costs since than it is even less economic. The facilities to supply power on the rare occasions that RE does not supply enough are already built for peak power supply. Solar and wind can be forecast days in advance so spinning reserve is not necessary.
Your argument is built on a list of falicities. RE energy does not have to look exactly the same as current power generation. For example, it is not required to have so much unused excess capacity all night, and it does not require spinning reserve all the time like nuclear power. You can make any idea look bad by raising enough straw men.
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SuperPosition at 04:38 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
PhillipeChantreau @131, renewable energy in the form of wind and solar cannot provide base load power by themselves, but the OP read in context does not claim that they can (although it is guilty of ambiguous wording). However, wind and solar energy can in principle provide baseload power when coupled with energy storage such as batteries (currently pre-orderable from Tesla, see 11:50 on the video); Pumped Heat Storage (at the prototype stage and likely to be commercialized within a few years); or pumped hydro (currently commercially available but geographically limited). The OP mentions other potential storage methods.
When this was pointed out to Superposition, he simply ignored it.
I'm sorry but that is not a definition of a base load supply and you cite technologies which are not available to us.
I was not ingoring the solutions you mention - quite the opposite, I was pointing out that they are not available, pursuant to which I would also point out that no grid operator has plans to deploy them.
Storage is feasible. That does not mean that it is practical or even the best solution.
Perhaps one day grid companies will deploy them alongside RE plants but they are not doing so now.
The issue is that we need to address GHGs now, not in 20 years. Do you agree?
As I quite clearly state, a variable supply can be accomodated by the addition of storage - that doesn not change the nature of the supply, only the way that it is accomodated.
Incidentally, you cite Tesla for micro generation/arbitrage.
Yes indeed you could class your property as a micro base load supply (assuming that you always use a fraction of what you consume) but the costs would be tremendous.
It's an attractive idea, but if you do the maths the storage losses are quite large (for every kw/h you generate you can only recover circa 800w/h after inversion) and you would still need to produce considerably more than you use for most of the day to be available at night or else all you are doing is arbitrage between day rate and cheap rate electricity.
ie a Tesla lithium-ion system with an initial installation cost of $400 per kwh capacity, 80% efficiency and ability to run 5,000 cycles, the average cost of stored electricity will be 15 cents per kwh.
To get your real electricity cost, you have to add to that 15 cent battery charge whatever you’re paying for that electricity in the first place (solar or grid)So yes it's handy for a rural house or well exposed off grid cabin, but a meaningless environmentally damaging toxic lithium based toy to >90% of the population, urban or not.
Even if you did have enough left over to pump back into the grid, I do not see how an operator could possibly afford to run a grid that way on the limited number of properties where it would work.
Domestically, it would be considerably more efficient and easier to take the huge cost of your Powerwall system (with its limited lifespan) and spend it on increasing your thermal insulation, induction hob cooking, heat pump/recovery and installing triple glazing and let your power company supply you with what you need over and above your micro-generation.
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michael sweet at 04:33 AM on 24 June 2015Renewables can't provide baseload power
Budischak et al (2013) claim that renewables can be used for 99+% of all power in the New England area and are more cost effective than any other method of power generation. They do not model using any hydroelectricity (they say with hydro it is too easy to use renewables) and they do not use any linkage of their grid to nearby grids to suppliment power over larger areas. They also do not use any method of load adjusting (as is currently used to switch industrial power to night use when coal cannot be turned off) to minimize load on days when renewables are forcast to be low.
It is undoubtable that as engineers become acquainted with the issues of renewables they will overcome many of the current perceived issues. Perhaps those who claim, without any data, that renewables cannot be used for baseload can point out the errors in Budischak's analysis.
If grid balancing and load shifting are used renewables become even cheaper. I will point out that the cost of renewables has dramaticly dropped since Budischak was written and his estimates of the cost of renewables have to be revised strongly downward.
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gregcharles at 04:25 AM on 24 June 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #25B
I agree with Tor B that there must be a typo there. Also, I'm having trouble finding the NOAA data being referenced. Does NOAA have something equivalent to this NASA GISS data page?
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