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Comments 28901 to 28950:
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Tristan at 23:27 PM on 7 June 2015Real-world measurements contradict paper claiming little global warming
Furthermore, IPCCs 2007 WG1 doesn't seem to support a claim of a 0.38c/dec increase.
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Tristan at 23:22 PM on 7 June 2015Real-world measurements contradict paper claiming little global warming
Figure 3 appears to be comparing projections, which only makes sense if those projections assume the same forcings.
I also can't find the IPCC projection for a 0.13c/dec increase till 2050 in WG1 closest I get is:
The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range
of 0.3°C to 0.7°C -
rkrolph at 17:12 PM on 7 June 2015Real-world measurements contradict paper claiming little global warming
I noticed in figure 3 that IPCC projections have dropped from .38 deg/dec in 2007 to .13 deg/dec in 2013, which seems like a very big change. And the Monckton "simple model" shows 0.09 deg/dec. Despite all the mentioned flaws in the Monctkton paper, their model is still predicting warming, although less than current IPCC values. But the difference between the two doesn't seem that large, especially compared to how much the IPCC projections have dropped since 2007.
At least from the figure, it looks to me like the IPCC values are converging toward the simple model value of 0.09 deg/dec. Is that an incorrect assessment?
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:45 PM on 7 June 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #23B
At about 17 minutes into Episode one of "Science under Siege" the assertion is made that science has always had a close relationship with power, either driving towards a common objective or in conflict with power. Hence science is always political. And the times when science was deemed to be contrary to the interests of those in power resulted in failed societies.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:15 PM on 7 June 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #23B
Here in Canada the CBC Radio program "Ideas" has just finished presenting a 3-Part series called "Science Under Siege".
I have not yet listened to this series. However, the episodes of Ideas that I have listened to have always been quite informative, thorough and thought provoking.
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Tom Curtis at 09:08 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
ryland @7, the last 15 years (2000-2014) includes near its tail one of the largest La Nina events on record (2011/2012) and corresponds with reduction of solar insolation from near record high levels to levels that have been compared with the maunder minimum. The 15 years prior to that (1985-1999) start with reduced temperatures due to the tail end effect of the El Chichon volcanic eruption, and finish with the strongest or second strongest El Nino on record. It is, therefore, hardly a mystery that the trend in the former is lower than the trend in the later.
Further, the primary source of temperature variability between the two periods is well known, with nearly all of the variability to be found in ENSO and volcanic eruptions. ENSO variations alone can account fully for the apparent slowdown in global temperature increase in the early twentieth century. This can be seen by plotting seperately the temperature trends for El Nino, neutral and La Nina years. Further study of natural variability is required to show whether or not the underlying warming due to anthropogenic factors has accelerated over that period, or remained steady. Also of interest is the influence of the PDO, which may result in a more sustained period before reversion to prior projected temperatures (ie, a strong PDO influence may result in temperatures increasing at the prior trend, but offset low due to the PDO for a period).
Given this, Stott's statement is not a particularly perspicacious response to the Karl et al paper. Indeed, it struck me on reading as rather platitudinous.
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MA Rodger at 08:42 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
ryland @11.
To be fair, I did mis-read your comment @7, reading it as "the comment reported" (as you managed to do yourself @11) which to me means 'all the comment reported'. But that is not what you wrote - you actually wrote "This comment reported", which can only mean this one comment.
There is a more substantial quote from Peter Stott on Karl et al (2015) here along with those from a number of other climatologists.
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John Hartz at 07:54 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
@Ryland #13:
Here's a summary of where the world is at with respect to mitigating manmade climate change:
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ryland at 06:44 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
Phil @1. As you say it is only a guess. I too can only guess at what Dr Stott meant by his reported comment, which I took at face value. I had no thought of "before" anything and have no idea why you thought I might have done. And surely serious efforts to mitigate climate change are already happening. Aren't they?
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Phil at 04:57 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
My guess (and it is only a guess) is that ryland is imagining a further phrase after Stotts 11 words, something along the lines of
... before we engage in serious efforts to mitigate climate change
I says this because this seems to be a common response to this paper; the idea that we should "do nothing until we know everything"
However, I'm certain that Dr Stott would not agree. He knows that natural variability is the length of the dogs leash
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ryland at 04:23 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
My sentence construction is less precise than I had thought. I didn't say "the Weekend Australian piece gives a more measured assessment of the paper" I said "the comment reported in The Weekend Australian perhps gives a more measured assessment " which is not at all the same thing. As for the use of the past rather than the present tense by Dr Stott I did not think I should alter what appears to be a direct quote but to respond to you I think the present tense might be more apposite
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MA Rodger at 03:48 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
ryland @7.
I can't agree that the Weekend Australian piece gives "a more measured assessment of the paper than do some others." Stott's comment is a useful addition and the first comment from UCL's Mark Maslin is helpful in putting the denialist blather in context. But the item then jumps face-first into the gutter with input from numpty denialist David Whitehouse, one of the Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasy. Giving that bunch column space without full warning-warning for the reader is grossly irresponsible.
As for the pace of scientific advance, note the tense of 11-word statement you concur with:-)
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ryland at 02:28 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
Both his statements seem eminently sensible as both imply that, as yet. all is not fully understood. I'm a scientist too although my PhD is in the field of molecular biology not climate science. In my own field advances are so rapid that what seems certain today is often shown not to be quite so certain tomorrow. I don't know whether climate science has the same pace of advancement but statements such as those by Dr Stott fit well with my own perceptions of how science should be conducted
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John Hartz at 01:49 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
@ ryland #7: Speaking of statements made by Peter Stott...
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ryland at 01:16 AM on 7 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
This comment reported in a piece in The Weekend Australian (June 6 2015) perhaps gives a more measured assessment of the paper than do some others.
"Head of climate monitoring at Britain’s Met Office, Peter Stott, said the results of the NOAA study still showed the warming trend across the past 15 years had been slower than in the previous 15 years and more study was needed to understand the role of natural variability".
I certainly concur with the last eleven words of the quote
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Joel_Huberman at 23:49 PM on 6 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
I didn't see a link to the Science paper by Karl et al. in the original post. Here's a link to the PDF version of the paper: Karl et al. 2015.
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michael sweet at 22:02 PM on 6 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
I sent an email to the reporter suggesting he use Gavin Schmidt, Ken Trenberth or Michael Mann as the "mainstream" scientist. Reporters never ask James Hansen for quotes for articles like this, he is considered too extreme. They only use extreme views from the "lukewarmers".
Realclimate (Dr. Schmidt) has a post on this topic. It says the new research is nothing special and just adds to past knowledge. The "hiatus" falls off because it was never a robust result in the first place.
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MA Rodger at 18:46 PM on 6 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
michael sweet @3.
The Los Angeles Times article is a bit messy but says "The new findings ... drew criticism from people on both sides of the rancorous debate over man-made climate change." Curry is followed by the "mainstream" comment of NASA's William Patzert whose quote ends “But the hiatus is history and it was real.” Presumably this is the criticism from the "mainstream" side of the alleged climate debate.
Of course, the thing with Curry is that she requires decades of hiatus or the Stadium Wave she is so fond of becomes a very silly call (as if it wasn't all ready).
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michael sweet at 10:16 AM on 6 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
The Los Angeles Times gave Judith Curry its main quote for "mainstream scientists" about this paper. She said:
"“I don't find this analysis at all convincing,” said Judith Curry, a climatologist at Georgia Tech who argues that natural variability in climate cycles dominates the impact of industrial emissions and other human actions. “While I'm sure this latest analysis from NOAA will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration, I don't regard it as a particularly useful contribution to our scientific understanding of what is going on."
Being a denier has gotten her the lead in the press. (The Los Angeles Times is a left leaning paper). Only the author is quoted in support of the paper. I do not see her finding fault with the data, she only criticizes the conclusion.
Jenna,
There really isn't much that SkS can do to support a new paper. Their results will have to be reviewed by their peers. If the results stand up in a year or two then we will know they are on the right track.
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KR at 08:06 AM on 6 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
Well, as I understand it the Karl et al paper incorporates some very small adjustments to past and current temperature, which are primarily based upon recent work identifying errors in cross-calibrating sea temperatures from different sampling techniques.
And when those minor corrections are made, the so-called 'hiatus' vanishes. Which demonstrates that it was never a robust feature of the data. In fact the recent low trend was on the same order of magnitude as previous short term high trend variations (see Rahmstorf et al 2007). Those variations quite rightly weren't regarded as invalidating our basic understanding of climate, but rather as short term variations around longer term climate trends. Interesting, and such variations have inspired some very interesting work on solar variations and volcanic loading, but they didn't overturn the science.
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It's fascinating how the pseudo-skeptics ignore such short term high trend variations while harping on short term low trend variations - IMO quite a bit of wishful thinking and confirmation bias there.
I fully expect a lot of denialist shouting in this regard, as losing the shade of a (ill-considered and statistically unjustifiable) claim to recent low trends means the weakness of their claims will once again be dragged into the sunlight. That's been the pattern with any number of recent works that clearly convey just how much we're changing the climate. Climate denialists make the most noise when their nonsense is threatened.
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jenna at 07:42 AM on 6 June 2015New research suggests global warming is accelerating
I sincerely hope that SKS will dig deeper into this new paper because it has been getting hammered in the (denial) blogosphere for the last couple of days. We need some serious pushback against that onslaught!
Jen.
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dana1981 at 00:24 AM on 6 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
Tom, thanks. Personally I don't have a big problem with averaging the surface temp data sets for illustrative purposes, although in a scientific paper it's probably better just to show the individual data sets separately.
Note that we've received a draft copy of the Monckton et al. response to our paper, and it's quite poor, even juvenile in places. It will be interesting to see if it goes through a more rigorous peer-review process than their initial submission, and if it survives in a state similar to the draft copy.
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michael sweet at 20:11 PM on 5 June 2015There is no consensus
Truthdetector,
I notice that the American Academy of Science and the Royal Society (and other national academies) refer to the 97% consensus. Why would these prestigious organizations of scientists refer to the consensus if it did not exist? By refering to the consensus, they validate it.
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chriskoz at 13:53 PM on 5 June 2015Real-world measurements contradict paper claiming little global warming
It's worth to recall M15 is not the first piece where Monckton's "fantasy".
Fig 3 in M15 show "Observations" until 2050, whereas Fig 2 in this RC post by Barry Bickmore (dated & Aug 2010) show Monckton's Fantasy IPCC "Prediction" of CO2. Two pieces complement each other nicely.
I don't realy need to remind it, but those who may not seen it before, look how M compares scientists and his opponents to Nazis here and here. The guy is simply a lunatic nutter and the best way to deal with such nutter is to simply ignore him. Everyone, even AGW deniers, can agree that tying to bring him from his "fantasy world" back to earth is simply a waste of time.
Unforfunately, Science Bulletin opened their forum for his spin to reach peer reviewd literature. That's is simply fuel for his fire: he won't stop proudly arguing his case, no matter how unreasonable his arguments are shown to be.
Moderator Response:[PS] right over the line. Please respect the comments policy and particularly note "Personally attacking other users gets us no closer to understanding the science. For example, comments containing the words 'religion' and 'conspiracy' tend to get moderated. Comments using labels like 'alarmist' and 'denier' as derogatory terms are usually skating on thin ice."
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:39 PM on 5 June 2015There is no consensus
TruthDetector... If there genuinely is no concensus on AGW then it should be quite easy for someone to read a sampling of research and show that there is a high degree of disagreement in the research.
Why has no one produced such a piece of research yet?
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onlinefun at 13:26 PM on 5 June 2015The Mystery of the Vanishing Ocean Heat
Is there a tendancy to search for data to fit the hypothesis, esp when becoming accepted in the scientific community is political/social in nature? I am not sure why confirmation bias does not occur in groups.
If the instruments reported increasingly warm oceans, would anyone have looked into it to see if "they were wrong"? Probably not, so chances of finding errors that support cooling dont exist.
Similarly, I also wonder about pulication bias effects on all the studies being done. Who wants to publish a paper that suggests cooling is happening? Few I suppose. Its not cool to publish minority views. Of course, the peer reviews of those papers might be equally influenced.
I read somewhere that about 90% of studies confirm global warming. 90% is good, but not a guarantee, esp. when you are talking about implementing global policies. Do those 10% get much attention? Are they strong in their evidence? Do they just result inclosive or show cooling?
I also am interested in knowing how valid studies are when there is not a double blind experiement with a control. Lab experiements can be valuable, but perhaps unreliable to extrapolate results to a highly complex ecosystem. It's like economics in that you really cant isolate cause and effects.
The hard part of global warming is not environmental science, but rather social science.
Moderator Response:[PS] Completely offtopic. Use the search button to find appropriate place to comment. You can use SKS weekly digest for things that dont fit.
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onlinefun at 13:17 PM on 5 June 2015It hasn't warmed since 1998
Will the current declining in CO2 and pollution help at some point?
http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/aqtrends.html
Obviously, this is the US only, but we also use more energy than anyone, esp 3rd world countries, so not sure the weight of this trend.
It seems we are doing the right things here according to this chart, and I dont suppose we'd want to encourage the 3rd world to give up their growing economies just because ours is mature and we are rich. Other modern countries are likely to have the same or better trends. So with warming ocurring, population growth slowing, not sure what valuable actions could be implemented (besides more people buying into the "be more responsible" lifestyle).
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link, but this has nothing to do with the topic. Perhaps copy it to here because it will be deleted shortly.
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Tom Curtis at 21:06 PM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
Kevin C @7, I certainly do not have a problem with using HadCRUT4 for (as you put it) cross checking, or (as I put it) replication. I have long disliked theories that depend for their validation on one or more of the available temperature series being false. On the other hand, if you are going to use just one temperature record, it is a mistake IMO to use HadCRUT4 in preference to BEST. And if you are going to use all of them, it is also a mistake to average them first.
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Kevin C at 20:30 PM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
Tom:
HadCRUT4, which is the most commonly used record, is the worst on both of those criteria (ie, it has the least raw data, and employs the worst statistical method). Ergo, as good practise scientists should currently employ either only the BEST record or (as replication is important), all records shown seperately.
While I'm a big fan of Berkeley Earth (the temperature record formerly known as BEST), I think the CRU station data should not be dismissed. While the station count may not appear spectacular, the stations are very carefully chosen and validated. As a result, coverage is dramatically better than GHCNv3 post 2000.
They also make use of (often manual) homogenizations from the national weather services rather than automated methods used elsewhere. That's a very important cross check.
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billthefrog at 19:22 PM on 4 June 2015The Carbon Brief Interview: Prof Dame Julia Slingo OBE
Sorry, got distracted by the men's QFs at Roland Garros.
I should also have added the following...
A typical (if that adjective can even be applied in this context) IBM Supercomputer can run at about 10 MegaWatts, but the UK Met Office model runs at about one quarter that figure. A typical UK nuclear power station might run somewhere in the very low GigaWatt range. The 3-Gorges station can crank out about 22 GW. (Apparently, last year's aggregated output was almost 100 TWhours.)
If we ever get to the state hypothesised in your penultimate sentence - that we may lack the energy supply to run supercomputers - then, by that time, human society will be well and truly fu**ed.
If you are interested in some more info about the Met Office Supercomputer, have a look here or here.
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uncletimrob at 19:18 PM on 4 June 2015Real-world measurements contradict paper claiming little global warming
mmmm.... Indicative of the desperation of deniers to match their "science" to actual science?
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Rob Painting at 18:41 PM on 4 June 2015Real-world measurements contradict paper claiming little global warming
"For example, instead of testing their prediction against real world data records, they invented their own "observations" up to 2050. While their prediction looks good when compared with the future they made up, they look bad compared with the past that we've already measured"
That's hilarious.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:54 PM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
chrisoz,
Based on other observations of what is going on around the planet it appears to be quite likely that there is a correlation of the publishing of the Monckton document with funding to key individuals in the publishing organization by parties like the ones that fund Willie Soon's making-up of claims.
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chriskoz at 12:10 PM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
The quality of M15, having Monckton as the lead author, is of no surprise: it underpins the utter lack of any scientific credentials of the author.
The only interesting question is: who was the editor/reviewers who allowed such piece appear in peer reviewed literature, rather than in some obscure anti-science blog or proceedings of anti-science organisations like NIPCC, where Monckton is known to have published his previous work.
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Tom Curtis at 08:28 AM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
1) Dana, congratulations on publication of the response.
2) @3, it is certainly inappropriate to average surface temperature records with satellite temperature records to produce a combined record. Not only that, even averaging surface temperature records is dubious. As there is considerable overlap between the stations used for the different records, the effect is to downweight the effect of stations not represented in all records. As HadCRUT4 ignores the Arctic, de facto assuming arctic temperature increase equals the global average, averaging temperature records also downweights arctic temperature trends.
In fact, if you want to use a single record it is difficult to justify using anything other than that record which employs the most raw data, and uses the best statistical approach. At the moment this is the BEST record. HadCRUT4, which is the most commonly used record, is the worst on both of those criteria (ie, it has the least raw data, and employs the worst statistical method). Ergo, as good practise scientists should currently employ either only the BEST record or (as replication is important), all records shown seperately.
3) When I read the abstract of the paper, I thought it one of the most damning critiques of another paper I have ever read. Well worth a read:
"Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015) (hereafter called M15) use a simple energy balance model to estimate climate response. They select parameters for this model based on semantic arguments, leading to different results from those obtained in physics-based studies. M15 did not validate their model against observations, but instead created synthetic test data based on subjective assumptions. We show that M15 systematically underestimate warming: since 1990, most years were warmer than their modelled upper limit. During 2000–2010, RMS error and bias are approximately 150% and 350% larger than for the CMIP5 median, using either the Berkeley Earth or Cowtan and Way surface temperature data. We show that this poor performance can be explained by a logical flaw in the parameter selection and that selected parameters contradict observational estimates. M15 also conclude that climate has a near-instantaneous response to forcing, implying no net energy imbalance for the Earth. This contributes to their low estimates of future warming and is falsified by Argo float measurements that show continued ocean heating and therefore a sustained energy imbalance. M15’s estimates of climate response and future global warming are not consistent with measurements and so cannot be considered credible."
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dana1981 at 05:15 AM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
DrMcoy @1 - Monckton et al. (2015) shows the average of RSS, UAH, NCDC, HadCRUT4, and GISS in its Figure 1. We didn't make this point in our rebuttal, but averaging together the satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperatures (RSS and UAH) with surface temperature measurements (NCDC, HadCRUT4, and GISS) doesn't make sense. Since it's a comparison to model surface temperature projections, UAH and RSS shouldn't have been included. But the misrepresentation of the model projections was far worse, so we focused on that.
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bcglrofindel at 04:15 AM on 4 June 2015Can we trust climate models?
@Tom Dayton,
Thanks, giving it a try on that thread as well.
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Tom Dayton at 04:06 AM on 4 June 2015Can we trust climate models?
bcglrofindel, since you've gotten no reply to your query here, I suggest you ask on the "Unforced Variations" open thread at RealClimate.
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Kuni at 03:31 AM on 4 June 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
The point I am trying to make is that we need to also include other disciplines, than just climate science, when combating those who are conspiring, for whatever motivations, to commit mass murder on a global scale with AGW.
Taker Easterbrook’s lasted BS for example:
Whoever is across from him on the stage at a debate/symposium/conference/whatever needs to use Marketing/Advertising techniques to create a single simple easy to understand by most people sentence sound bite that deals with what Easterbrook did when he used his bogus model output.
The rest of the allotted time should then be used to hammer home the fact that Easterbrook is a sociopathic terrorist, who for whatever dark twisted reason, is conspiring to murder, using the WMD known as AGW, the children and grandchildren of everyone present.
Pointing out the fact that a sociopath is a sociopath is not a personal attack, it is merely a statement of fact.
Pointing out the fact that when it comes to global warming that science has spoken and that there is no debate, there is no discussion, and there is no opinion. There are those who want to commit mass murder on a global scale with global warming, and those who do not want to commit mass murder on a global scale; is not engaging in political activity, it is merely pointing out a simple fact.
Moderator Response:[JH] Inflamatory rhetoric and diatribes against individuals are not welcome on this website.
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Kuni at 03:16 AM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
DrMcCoy
Yesterday, while posting at one of science deniers sites out there, I also notices that the graph at the top of the page did not match up with the actual data they claimed they were using.
The following statement accompanied the graph: But don’t take my word for it. Here, in a single handy graph, are five major global temperature records (UAH, RSS, GISS, NCDC and HadCRUT4) from Climate4you:
It would appear that Climate4you is also in the business of creating bogus temperature data graphs.
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Tom Dayton at 02:36 AM on 4 June 2015There is no consensus
TruthDetector: For detailed, factual rebuttals to all your linked complaints about the consensus, you should actually read the original post at the top of this thread, including all three tabbed panes--Basic, Intermediate, and Advanced. Then enter the word consensus in the Search field at the top left of the page to find other even more detailed posts that are relevant.
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KR at 02:31 AM on 4 June 2015There is no consensus
TD - Repeating foolishness over and over does not improve its quality.
Quite frankly, I find repetetive attacks on consensus, not to mention specific papers or scientists, to be indicators of their quality and veracity - the number of complaints in the denier blogosphere appear to be directly related to how clearly and effectively they demonstrate the actual science that debunks climate denial.
Which 'TruthDetector' has just demonstrated once again.
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DrMcoy at 02:30 AM on 4 June 2015Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned
I had the pleasure of being at the RSE meeting on Climate Change and Society last week, about which Christopher Monckton wrote a lovely piece - misrepresenting most it and highlighting his own predujices. It lead me into reading a bit more of his published material.
One question - the plots he shows for the observed temperature change look completely different to most which I assume is down to the datasets he chooses to average but can you give some more details? Unfortunately I don't have access to your paper if it's in there. -
PhilippeChantreau at 02:24 AM on 4 June 2015There is no consensus
Truthdetector, the quality of your sources is duly noted, as is that of your argument. Of course, what little substantive content is in these links has long been addressed, in this thread and others. Readers interested in reality will do their own digging and find out the truthiness of it all.
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TruthDetector at 02:03 AM on 4 June 2015There is no consensus
The consensus that was never there
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Consensus-on-climate-change-causes-a-myth-6295631.php
97% never did agree, just a myth, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/20/the-97-consensus-myth-busted-by-a-real-survey/
http://patriotpost.us/articles/28035
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/08/97-consensus-is-only-76-self-selected.html
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Lionel A at 01:48 AM on 4 June 2015Melting moments: a look under East Antarctica's biggest glacier
I don't know how valid exploring the countors of the section in and around Totten Glacier and Law using GeoMapApp is but the results from using the Distance/Profile and Digitize Longitude, Latitude and Depth may be revealing and indicate the various pathways that are below or near to sea level.
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Tom Curtis at 01:02 AM on 4 June 2015The history of emissions and the Great Acceleration
saileshrao @28, that result has been known in essence since at least the late 1990s. The proof is in the balanceing of the O2/CO2 budget. Essentially, it is known that the total reduction of O2 in the atmosphere is less than the amount predicted from combustion of fossil fuels, allowing for the fact that combustion of the hydrogen in fossil fuels also reduces O2. The shortfall has to be made up by photosynthesis in excess of natural respiration, ie, of an increase in land biomass.
The sources of the excess respiration are not so easy to quantify. Part of it comes from massive reforestation in the mid to high latitudes of the NH as forests partly or completely destroyed in the 19th century regrew over the twentieth century (particularly in the US and Europe). The green revolution accounts for a further part. A further part comes from increased absolute humidity on average leading to increased plant growth. Finally, the greenhouse fertilization effect will account for some more. The first two of these should already be included in the net LUC, leaving the second two as the primary drivers of the land uptake component. Partitioning the relative contribution of the two, however, is likely to be difficult. Further, there may be other small (or even large) effects with which I am not familiar.
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saileshrao at 23:34 PM on 3 June 2015The history of emissions and the Great Acceleration
I'm puzzled by the land carbon accounting since 1750. It appears from Le Quere (2014) that the net carbon loss from anthropogenic land use change since 1750 is almost completely offset by the carbon uptake of land. In other words, the carbon on land has remained unchanged despite the massive changes in vegetation and soil in Asia, North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand and Africa throughout European colonization and the modern industrial era.
Can someone help me make sense of that assertion? Thanks! -
billthefrog at 21:50 PM on 3 June 2015The Carbon Brief Interview: Prof Dame Julia Slingo OBE
@ denisaf
"I wonder, however, how they take into account the impact of friction"
To the best of my extremely limited knowledge, all GCMs use the Navier-Stkes equations when describing the motion of fluids, such as the oceans and the atmosphere. As I'm sure you know, these are used in the description of viscous flows.
Physical behavioural aspects that cannot be adequately modelled are handled by a process known as parameterisation. (Please note that the term may well be used with a somewhat different meaning from that which you may be familiar with when employed in turbine design.) If you are uncertain of the usage of the term in conjunction with GCMs, you could have a quick look at this page from the World Meteorological Organisation, and scroll down to the section dealing with parameterisation.
"...the models do not take into account the decisions that people will make in the future..."
Not true. Model runs are set up under a variety of future emission scenarios. Skeptical Science already has a Beginner's Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways, and I would suggest you perhaps have a look at that.
cheers Bill F
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billthefrog at 21:11 PM on 3 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
"Selective concern. Bird mortality only seems important to most of these people if it's in regard to windmills - and not as an actual concern in it's its own right. This is very similar to climate denier 'concerns' about the poor, which only seem to appear in regards to regulating coal plants, and not in terms of actually helping said poor or third world countries with health, energy, or at the root - any kind of monies."
Those words - from KR's comment #29 - certainly resonate with my own experiences. I've just spent the last 15 minutes searching through the local village magazine archive trying to find the example that I knew was buried in there somewhere.
From the Lustleigh Parish mag, April 2010 (p90) ...
"Carbon dioxide is a trace gas and a wonderful plant food that has often been at higher concentrations than now. It is tragic if we demonise it and spend billions fighting an imaginary problem when there are so many real problems of poverty, pollution, and change of land use that we should address instead."
Unbelievable! The generic semantics of that closing sentence can be rendered thus...
"Why spend time/money on < whatever it is you are ranting about > when there are on-going problems with < enter something that will tug at heart-strings, and gain a sympathetic ear > ?"
As KR rightly states, this is nothing but hollow rhetoric, built on hypocrisy and ideology.
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