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Comments 29301 to 29350:

29301. Tom Curtis at 11:46 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Tom Dayton @4-7:

       1) The model used was the GISS Model E vIII, as can be found out by tracing back the links through the Real Climate link I provided.  As such I suspect it is the same model that was used for the second figure in Mann's original article, with Mann's figure differing in being rapped around the hemicircle, and not being to scale relative to the real thickness of the atmosphere.  Importantly, Mann's figure also differs in showing the effects of historic forcings (which are very different in magnitude between the various forcings) rather than the effects of forcings of approximately equivalent magnitude:

        

       2)  Santer et al (2013) shows historical forcings from Jan 1979 to Dec 2012.  Santer's graph shows an overall positive volcanic forcing, with a negative forcing in southern polar latitudes, and no forcing in northern polar latitudes.  That is, it shows a very different regional pattern (and a far smaller forcing) than does Pinatubo.  Consequently I would hesitate to draw any inference from the differences in pattern between GISS model E and the CMIP5 mean.  Such differences are as likely to be due to the different geographical pattern of the forcing as to any difference in model physics.

       3)  Each of the TMT (Channel T2), TTS (Channel T3), TLS (Channel T4) include a portion of the lower stratosphere in their weighting functions:

       

        The result is that all are downgraded by opposite signed signals contaminating the data.  This is particularly the case for the TMT (T3) channel which obtains approximately a third of its data from the stratosphere, and hence with opposite sign to the upper tropospheric signal.  (This is also why certain deniers prefer to use the TMT channel as representative of tropospheric temperature trends.)  As Santer et al graph by anomalies for these channels, I presume they have taken a weighted temperature function by altitude to match the weighting of the satellite channels, and will suffer the same problem.  This by itself would lead us to expect a reduced TMT temperature response relative to the TLT response as shown by Santer et al, even with the GISS Model E temperature response.

       4)  Beyond that, it is possible that the CMIP5 models show a different response to volcanic forcing, and that consequently the Real Climate article and GISS model E data are out of date.  If Mann could get Gavin Schmidt to comment on that point, I would be very interested.  As it stands, however, I do not find his counter argument convincing, and nor is this topic close enough to Mann's core areas of expertise that I would take him as an authority on this aspect of AGW.

29302. Tom Dayton at 10:05 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Tom Curtis:  Mike Mann continued at FaceBook:

       I suspect the model simulations shown by Tom may have a very different convective parameterization than the models employed in the CMIP5 average shown by Santer et al. The latter is consistent with maximum precipitation rate (and latent heating) in the lower-to-mid troposphere, with greater stability (and less latent heating) in the upper troposphere, while the results shown by Tom suggest a great degree of convective heating and instability all the way to the tropopause. The convective dynamics described by the two situations are greatly different.

       I'm interested to hear Tom's response. I open to being disproved on this, but thusfar I'm troubled by the inconsistencies in what he has posted vs. what is shown in the peer-reviewed literature by Santer and others...

29303. Klapper at 10:04 AM on 17 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       @Tom Curtis #917:

       "...and less than the error you made in correcting him @913.."

       I didn't actually correct him at 913; I stated I thought he was double counting but did not quantify the amount he was double counting by. However, in my graph presented in #916, I use the 0.068W/m^2 as the total below 2000 metres, as per Purkey & Johnson Table 1, and elimate the 0.027 W/m^2 for the > 4000 m component of heat gain, so my assumption for heat gain since 1990 in my graph is that > 2000 m OHC gain = a constant 0.068W/^2.

29304. Tom Dayton at 10:03 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Tom Curtis, I'm being go-between you and Mike Mann, because though he is popping over here to read your comments, he can't post here because he does not have an SkS account and doesn't want to get one because he already is too busy. (I don't buy that excuse, because I know the only way he can accomplish all the things he already accomplishes is by having an army of clones of himself.  What's one more clone?)  He wrote on FaceBook:

       Tom: in fact, I've having a lot of trouble reconciling the trends shown in (the other Tom's) post at SkS and this plot from Santer et al '13. Tom's plots show maximum amplitudes in the way upper troposphere, while Santer's corresponding plots show greatest amplitudes in the lower-to-mid troposphere. In Santer's plot, the SIGN of the temperature anomaly associated with volcanic forcing actually reverses at the mid-troposphere (roughly 450 mb)! Perhaps there is something I'm missing or misunderstanding about the plots Tom has posted. They certainly don't seem consistent w/ Santer et al. The "hot spots" (or "cold spots" if you like, depending on sign of forcing) are located at greatly different altitudes.

       

29305. Tom Curtis at 09:09 AM on 17 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       Klapper @915, that is far from obvious.  Specifically, Purkey and Johnson write:

       "We make an estimate of the total heat gain from recent deep Southern Ocean and global abyssal warming by adding the integral of Qabyssal below 4000 m to the integral of QSouthernOcean from 1000 to 4000 m (Table 1). The 95% confidence interval for Qabyssal is calculated as the square root of the sum of the basin standard errors squared times 2, again using this factor because the DOF exceed 60. The warming below 4000 m is found to contribute 0.027 (±0.009) W m−2. The Southern Ocean between 1000 and 4000 m contributes an additional 0.068 (±0.062) W m−2, for a total of 0.095 (±0.062) W m−2 to the global heat budget (Table 1)."

       That is exactly what Hansen did, and as he was following the recomendation of Purkey and Johnson, prima facie he was correct to do so.  Further, Levitus et al (2009), from which Hansen obtains his 0-2000 meter data, write:

       "We acknowledge that ocean temperature data are sparse in the polar and subpolar regions of the world ocean but we still refer to our OHC estimates as global. We do this because the OHC estimates are volume integrals so that only relatively small contributions are expected from the polar regions to our global estimates." 

       That appears to suggest that like Levitus et al (2005) (of which Levitus09 is an update), Levitus et al (2009) does not include OHC for the Southern Ocean.

       If you want to make the case that the 1000-2000 meters of the Southern Ocean from Purkey and Johnson should not be included, you need to show either by obtaining a definitive statement from Levitus, or by comparing the gridded data, that Levitus et al (2009) included 0-2000 meter data for the Southern Ocean.  Absent that, and given that excluding warming through too sparse sampling is as much of an error as including too much by double dipping, it appears that Hansen has proceeded correctly.

       Finally, even if he has inadvertently "double dipped" the error involved is appreciably less than the error of the total calculation, and less than the error you made in correcting him @913.

29306. Klapper at 08:57 AM on 17 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       @All #91x:

       Here is a graph of the total inputs. OHC 0-2000 is from NODC, pentadal in the early years and quarterly since 2005, land is from Beltrami et al 2002, > 2000 m OHC is from Purkey & Johnson, ice melt is from PIOMAS/my own model for Antarctica sea ice, Ice sheet melt is from GRACE and earlier some generic Wikipedia numbers, atmosphere is from RSS TLT. I started using 5 year trends, then switched to 6 since that is what Hansen used, but then switched back to 5.

       

       Five years might still be a bit short. OHC seems susceptible to even quarterly steps in the rolling trend. For example the 5 year trend centered on August of 2012 is 0.89 W/m2, while May of 2012 is 0.80 W/m2. I think this is the effect of ENSO causing wobbles in heat gain.

29307. Klapper at 07:37 AM on 17 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       @Tom Curtis #914:

       "...in table 1 they also mention 0.068 W/m^2 globally for below 2000 meters..."

       If that's the case then Hansen has still made a mistake has he not? He used 0.068W/m^2 for 2000 to 4000, but that number is from 2000 to bottom is it not? In other words he double counted the 0.027W/m^2.

29308. Tom Dayton at 07:23 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Mike Mann on FaceBook followed up in his reply to Tom Curtis's above comment:

       I did take a look at the piece. First of all, I am not ignoring convective transport of heat. What I am saying is that the convective transport of heat (which would normally lead to a "cold spot" in this case) is offset by the radiative forcing at least partly, eroding (if not erasing entirely) the cold spot. Now, I don't know the details of the calculation he's showing, because he hasn't stated where it comes from. I'd really like to see the details, i.e. how the forcing was implemented, etc. because it appears to be at odds, in terms of the pattern of response, with that shown in Santer's work.This figure is from Santer et al (2013) PNAS. Look at the amplitude of the response to the volcanic forcing events in the mid-to-upper troposphere vs the surface, e.g. Pinatubo, we see about -0.25C peak cooling for "TMT" (mid-to-upper tropos) and about -0.5C peak cooling in the lower troposphere. I don't see how that can be consistent w/ what Tom is showing in his figure.

       

29309. Tom Dayton at 07:18 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Tom Curtis, I asked Mike Mann to reply to your comment. Here's what he wrote over on his FaceBook post:

       I've explained (and shown) carefully in the post above that there is no hotspot associated with a global warming trend resulting from changes in volcanic forcing (this is also true for ozone forcing-related trends). The problem with the RealClimate post is that it doesn't acknowledge this exception to (Gavin's) argument. The argument works for GHG, it works for El Nino, it works for Solar. IT DOES NOT WORK for volcanic forcing (or ozone forcing, or any forcing which has a similarly complex vertical radiative forcing profile associated with it). I have confirmed my take on this with Ben Santer.

29310. Tom Curtis at 06:45 AM on 17 May 2015
       Monthly global carbon dioxide tops 400ppm for first time
       

       PluviAL @12, I am rather less sanguine than you about extracting water from the atmosphere in deserts, which are deserts (after all) because of the low relative humidity of the atmosphere over those latitudes.  The only technique I know of that could reliably extract the moisture woud be to be to massively cooling the air, a process that will require a lot more energy than could be extracted by the condensation of water.  Indeed, I suspect that extracting energy from water condensation would run up against entropy problems very quickly, and hence also not be feasible.  However, if you invent a device that can do it, more power to you.  On this I would be happy to be proven wrong, if only for the opening up of agricultural land on the fringes of deserts, and to regreen regions recently suffering desertification such as the Sahel.

29311. Tom Curtis at 06:30 AM on 17 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       Klapper @913, you are mistaken about Purkey and Johnson.  Specifically, while they mention 0.027 W/m^2 below 4000 meters globally, and 0.068 below 1000 meters "south of the Subantarctic Front of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current" in the abstract, in table 1 they also mention 0.068 W/m^2 globally for below 2000 meters.  That the two values coincide does not make it a mistake to use the second figure (from table 1) in estimated OHC change below 2000 meters.

       Indeed, Purkey and Johnson quantify the below 1000 meters Antarctic change in OHC because prior estimates of OHC failed to determine the change in polar waters.  Ergo, arguably, the 0.032 W/m^2 between 1000 and 2000 meters in the Antarctic should also be added.  Indeed, Purkey and Johnson do in fact argue that in the conclusion, estimating that the total contribution from Antarctic Bottom Water (ABBW) to be 0.1 W/m^2 globally averaged.  Therefore Hansen may have underestimated additional contribution to OHC based on Purkey and Johnson's paper.  Whether he has or not depends on exactly which 0-2000 meter estimate he used, and whether or not it included the 0-2000 meter warming in the Antarctic.

29312. Tom Curtis at 06:03 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Tom Dayton @1, in this case Michael Mann is wrong.  As the RealClimate team have explained, the tropospheric hotspot is a result of the lapse rate feedback, ie, the change in decrease in temperature with altitude due to the increased heat capacity of the atmosphere resulting from a higher absolute humidity with increased warming.  The RealClimate team illustrate this by comparing expected warming and cooling by latitude and altitude for a doubling of CO2, and an equivalent increase in solar forcing:

        

       

       The patterns are broadly similar, although the CO2 forcing results in a stronger arctic warming (but note the difference in scales).

       Unfortunately, it is not possible to similarly compare the result of CO2 forcing to a loss of background volcanic aerosols as the background level of aerosols is not that large.  We can however compare the cooling due to a loss of 50% of CO2, and due to a 1/3 rd Pinatubo level volcanic forcing:

       

       

       As you can see, for these negative forcings, the patterns in the tropics are very similar.  At the poles, however, the increased volcanic aerosols result in stratospheric cooling, unlike the stratospheric warming resulting from reduced CO2.  Further, the peak arctic cooling is further south with volcanic aerosols.  Again the scales are different, but the forcings are not SFAIK of equivalent strength.  The patterns, however, are the important feature.

       The polar stratospheric cooling with increased volcanic forcing may be partly due to the location of the aerosol cloud, which is not global (and was tropical in Pinatubo's case) and ergo will have different regional effects.  It is, however, at least partly due to a decreased warming of the stratosphere from upwelling IR radiation due to the cooler troposphere not being compensated by increases short wave radiation reflected of the stratospheric aerosols due to the low insolation at the poles.  Ergo, it is at least in part a feature we would expect of any volcanic cooling, although the exact boundaries of warming and cooling zones will vary depending on the latitude of the volcano causing the cooling.

       The important thing about this comparison for our discussion is that there is definitely a tropospheric cool spot for both reduced CO2 and the volcanic forcing.  As can be seen by comparing the doubled CO2 and halved CO2, the patterns of change in temperature are the same for both.  It is just that the signs of the change are different.  The same would be true for a reduced volcanic forcing.  That is, it would show a similar pattern to the increased volcanic forcing, only with warming where the volcanic forcing shows cooling, and vice versa.  Ergo a reduction of background volcanic aerosols would definitely result in a tropospheric hotspot, contra Mann.

       I believe Mann has been decieved on this because:

       1) He fails to note that the observed heating for Pinatubo through radiative absorption and re-emission of the aerosols is primarilly above the 100 mb line, ie, the tropopause:

       

       2)  And because he focuses only on radiative heat transfer, ignoring the convective heat transfer effects that drive the change in lapse rate.

29313. Klapper at 05:46 AM on 17 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       @MA Rodger #912:

       "...suggests some part of the method employed in Hansen et al (2011) Section 9 is being airbrushed away..."

       Hansen made an error in Section 9 of Hansen et al 2011. Here's his quote: "The third term is heat gain in the global layer between 2000 and 4000 m for which we use the estimate 0.068 ± 0.061 W/m2 of Purkey and Johnson (2010)."

       The 0.068W/m2 from Purkey & Johnson is not for the 2000 to 4000 zone, but the 1000 to 4000 zone, only in the southern ocean, which means he is double counting some heat (1000 to 2000 in the southern ocean). The Purkey & Johson paper is clear about this, as is the text in Hansen et al 2011 elsewhere in the paper. Keep in mind since the J&P 2010 paper is showing neglible abyssal warming in the northern ocean (see Figure 8 in that paper), its not clear the 1000 to 2000 overlap in the southern ocean is a wash with the "missing" 2000 to 4000 in the northern ocean.

       As for your last comment: "which weighs in at roughly 1.0W/m2 (2010-2014)", I checked the numbers and the W/m^2 is 0.89. However, keep in mind the model CMIP5 is still increasing and so the model projected imbalance average 2010 to 2014 is 1.04, plus sea ice has been gaining 2010 to 2014 so you have at least one of your factors going negative, albeit one of those that have negible leverage.

       You've stated there are "problems" with using TLT as a calculator for net energy change in the atmosphere but surely it's better than what Hansen did which was to use a metric representing maybe the lowest 5 metres of the atmosphere. TLT and TMT combined would likely be the best and certainly more representative of the atmosphere than any SAT data set which has much poorer spatial/volume coverage.

       As for land heat, I would not use Hansens method. I think actual data from the boreholes is better, than a heat flux model. Using the 2002 paper by Beltrami et al, the heat flux from borehole temperature profiles was .039W/m^2, but that is land only. If you calculate this to a global TOA basis (and delete the ice covered continents Greenland and Antarctica) you end up with an average heat flux into land of only 0.010 W/m^2, making it another neglible component of the global energy balance. The recent decadal flattening of the surface temperature would indicate land heat flux is likely no higher now than the 1950 to 2000 average which is the basis of the Beltrami number.

       In summary, my point was that the models run too hot. It is true that recently OHC gains come close to the model TOA imbalance, but then that happened back in 2002-2003 also and then the rate of ocean heat gain faltered somewhat. The bottom line is that even now, using very short periods to estimate the imbalance, the projected TOA imbalance of the models is higher than the actual TOA global energy imbalance as best we can calculate them.

29314. Mal Adapted at 04:48 AM on 17 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       OPOF, I'm pretty sure that the ostensible rationale offered by some lukewarmers is disingenuous.  They know it's unacceptable to leave the cost of AGW to be paid by poor people in other countries.  When they assert that the costs of AGW won't be high enough to justify mitigation, what they really mean is that they don't expect the costs to themselves or anyone they care about to be high. Their attitude (for which there is ample historical precedent, to be sure) is expressed by the Deacons' grace: "Lord bless me and my wife, son John and his wife, we four and no more."

       Such people will only support mitigation if they can be persuaded that their personal costs will in fact be high.  If they see their or their families' lives, homes or livelihoods threatened by heat waves, droughts, severe storms and rising sea levels, they'll call for action.

29315. One Planet Only Forever at 03:06 AM on 17 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       Mal Adapted,

       It is worse than those people not caring about the cost someone else will pay.

       Every economic evaluation that compares 'current day benefits that do not truly focus on assisting the least fortunate advance to a sustainable better future' with 'some calculation of future costs' is fundamentally unacceptable on two counts.

       1. Any unsustainable and damaging activity like the burning of fossil fuels really should only be for the temporary effort to transition the least fortunate to a sustainable more fortunate future. Global GDP has grown faster than the population, even African GDP has grown faster than the African population, and the wealthiest have gotten much wealthier yet many people remain stuck in desperate poverty.
       2. It is unjustifiable to compare the benefits obtained by some in a current generation with the resulting costs and damage that will be faced by future generations. And it is almost criminal to overstate the benefits that a current generation would have to give up and compare those with understated future costs and consequences, especially when ignoring the damage done to the environment that is not considered because it has no current legal or economic cost evaluation method (the robust diversity of life is priceless, and that is why it is ignored by the 'cost comparers')
29316. Tom Dayton at 02:03 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Interesting point in the comments at HotWhopper, that the term "tropospheric hot spot" seems not to be used scientifically.  Implications of failure to use that term are more than merely semantic.

29317. Tom Dayton at 02:01 AM on 17 May 2015
       New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere
       

       Mike Mann has an excellent description of this new study's relevance to AGW.  In brief,

       What's the punchline? Well, if global warming really *were* due to a (natural) decrease in volcanic activity over time (rather than due to an anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases), then we would expect to see an increase in global surface temperatures WITHOUT any mid-tropospheric "hot spot".

       In the end, then, the confirmation of a "hot spot" in this latest study by Sherwood and Nishant isn't completely irrelevant to the issue of human-caused climate change. While it may not be a unique fingerprint of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases, it does nonetheless potentially allow us to rule out at least one possible suspect (changes in volcanic activity). It turns out that anthropogenic changes in ozone (both tropospheric, as a surface pollutant, and stratospheric, as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion) are another potential "forcing" of climate change that does not have a clear "hot spot" signature as part of its fingerprint.

29318. michael sweet at 01:49 AM on 17 May 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #19
       

       Slcochran,

       Perhaps you want to read about the Denial 101 course currently being run by John Cook, the originator of Skeptical Science.  Come back and comment again after you read at least the course description.

29319. slcochran at 00:01 AM on 17 May 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #19
       

       You're going at this all wrong.  The people who use critical thinking already acknowledge anthropogenic global warming, but you're not influencing those who are bound up by their belief systems.  I'm surprised that everybody on SkS seems to be denying science! (jsut to tweak your nose).

       Neuroscience tells us clearly that throwing facts at a belief system only enforces that belief system.  They don't accept your facts and arguments because they don't want to accept them as it challenges their preconceived notions, and change to that belief system is threatening to them.

       SkS would be even more useful if you began to tackle framing.  Some references: The Righteous Mind- Jonathan Haidt, Moral Politics, How Liberals and Conservatives Think- George Lakoff, The Republican Brain- The Science of Why They Deny Science- and Reality- Chris Mooney, The Political Brain- Drew Weston.  Yes, these are all politically oriented, but the science is the same.  And, yes, they do point our the preponderance of irrational belief systems among Republicans, but I believe that the vast majority of climate change deniers belong to that particular party (I don't have a reference for that statement, but I don't have a reference that supports my claim that the sun comes up in the East either).

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please enter the word "framing" into the SkS search box and read all of the articles that are identified. It's always best to "look before you leap." 

29320. MA Rodger at 19:37 PM on 16 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       Moderator Response @911.

       The exercise being embarked on is described by Klapper @908 thus - "I have been reviewing Hansen et al. 'Earth's energy imbalance & Implications' (2011) and think it would be a useful exercise to update this paper with the very latest data."I am assuming this exercise addresses specifically Section 9 of that paper although I fear the selective intent indicated @911 suggests some part of the method employed in Hansen et al (2011) Section 9 is being airbrushed away. There is also some issues with the use of TLT, the use of global land ΔSAT for the Land Heat Uptake, etc. However, while this analysis is not being addressed with the rigour it requires, all the palaver is a tiny a bit pointless. The update will, after all simply show that net energy imbalance is still overwhelming recorded in ΔOHC(0-2000) which weighs in at roughly 1.0W/m² (2010-2014) compared with 0.65W/m² (1993-2010) & 0.42W/m² (2005-2010) in Hansen et al (2011).

29321. PluviAL at 12:05 PM on 16 May 2015
       Monthly global carbon dioxide tops 400ppm for first time
       

       Tom Curtis @11, 100% in agreement with C-Tax to engage inventiveness of market.

       @10, Thanks for excellent response, right as usual. My oops; top-of-hat calculation took the whole earth's surface instead of only land area. Forestation takes time, but plentiful water can reduce it by orders of magnitude. Living in the desert too, I have converted rocky lots into gardens in 2 years. Also, you are right 8kg/m2 is very conservative for sequestration.

       Our reason for difference in appreciation of this line of attack is that I assume water can be pulled from the atmosphere at a negative cost. Process will produce electrical power as it is pulled out with nature's process. J. P. Espy's convection concepts is a starting ides. He was a founder of the science of meteorology. We know a lot more today than in the 1800. Burning forests is unnecessary, solar and latent heat energy are more than sufficient, and flow architecture can surpass natural precipitation production rates (conventional theory on this). As one byproduct, at 0.05% electrical production from free energy flux, a plant can produce more than a nuclear power plant, at <1/20th the cost, and mostly positive externalities. I'm working on a patent for that.

       If it works, we can transport water in unlined canals specifically to percolate excess water from the oceans onto the earth, while absorbing CO2, and increasing forestation. I think the net radiation from earth increases with forestation, especially, if water for such growth is squeezed out of the subtropics as envisioned. The process concentrates heat in the upper atmosphere to radiate at k-temp difference to the 4th power.

       Finally, I totally concur that desert habitat must be protected, but be we can afford to lose a lot more, hopefully redundant, desert than tropical forest at this time. Before proceeding with any of my ideas I expect many PHd's on each topic you point out to consider externalities.

       A carbon tax, along with civic infrastructure improvement (laws which allow us to exclude, and move out troublesome people from communities, or with true rehabilitation which includes philosophical reprograming, nutritional re-regimentation, etc... etc... can allow for much more enjoyable walking cities and integrated communities. Such harmonious high density communities will be the biggest factor in reducing energy consumption as we confront the topic in full force at the end of the century. Markets can also be involved in this. Markets can also make this wild sounding idea practical and take the nasty sides out of it. ( I have a BA in sociology... but don't tell anyone from my U I am thinking these heretical thoughts.)

29322. Mal Adapted at 09:37 AM on 16 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       Nick Palmer:

       The loudest deniers, I am speculating, are doing it, even though they don't believe it, because inwardly they have been convinced that we don't need to do much, if anything. However, as political animals, they know that selling the public that is a weak flawed message. FUD works better to achieve their ends.

       I don't think it strains credulity to suggest that Inhofe, Morano, Monckton inter alia understand perfectly well that the costs of AGW will be paid by someone, sometime, but they just don't care.  They'll say whatever they think will maximize the profits of their patrons in the short term. 

       Knowingly making counter-factual assertions for personal aggrandizement is the second-oldest profession, after all.

29323. Klapper at 06:45 AM on 16 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       @MA Rodger #910:

       No, I hadn't forgotten it. I just don't have a database to calculate it from (that I know of). Neither do I know of a database which estimates minus 2000 m heat content. I think I will do my own calculations of the land heat flux, and present all what I have calculated so far (0-2000, sea ice melt, continental ice melt, troposphere heat gain/loss and present that total W/m^2 forcing. The truth is that some components, like montane ice melt are less than the thickness of the line on the graph at these scales (as becomes readily apparent when looking at either my graphs or Hansen et al 2011 Figure 12.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] What exactly are you trying to accomplish with your calculations? What do they have to do with OP? Perhaps you should consider creating your own website to fully display what you are doing rather than expecting SkS readers to give you feedback on your "works-in-progress" on our comment threads.  

29324. MA Rodger at 05:09 AM on 16 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       Klapper @909.

       Do remember there is significant land ice melting that isn't sat on either Greenland or Antarctica. See AR5 Figure 4.25 which suggests such sources added some 4,500Gt to ice loss in 18 years = 250Gt/y. That would add about 0.005 W/sq m to your totals.

29325. Tom Curtis at 04:55 AM on 16 May 2015
       Monthly global carbon dioxide tops 400ppm for first time
       

       An addendum to my @8, I should note that I am excited about new developments in battery technology.  It is not that I think they are the way to a renewable future.  It may turn out that Audi's e-diesel is the more economic option for transport, and systems similar to Isentropics pumped heat storage (both of which also excite me) are the better solution for standing power systems.  What I want to see is multiple such developments competing in a world with a price on carbon.  With such competition, the most economic overall system with the best side benefits will develop. 

29326. Tom Curtis at 04:44 AM on 16 May 2015
       Monthly global carbon dioxide tops 400ppm for first time
       

       PluviAL @8, according to wikipedia, the total land are of the Earh is 148.94 million km^2.  The deserts of the Earth represent about a third of that, or 43.97 million km^2 if we sum the areas of the world's 10 largest deserts.  That, however, includes 14.2 million km^2 from the Antarctic Desert, and 13.9 million km^2 from the Arctic desert.  If nothing else, I think in any plan to tackle global warming we would want to keep both the Antarctic and Arctic deserts frozen (and have no choice in the short term for the Antarctic desert).  That leaves approximately 20 million km^2 as the total available desert area for reforestation.

       With a difference of C storage of 8 Kg per m^2, reforesting the 20 million km^2 would sequester at least 160 GtC, or the equivalent of 34 ppmv of atmospheric CO2 considering only the retained fraction in the atmosphere.  That would indeed be a substantial contribution to combating global warming, but represents only 40% of the difference between current total cumulative emissions and the trillion tonnes of Carbon which is the upper limit to give us about a 2 in 3 chance of avoiding more than 2 C warming.  Your C sequestration estimates are conservative, so it would not surprise me if you could double that, but not through reforesting more desert as there will not be more desert to reforest.

       Having said that, reforesting deserts is a slow and complex process.  You cannot plant trees in the Sahara and expect them to grow.  You first need to build up a reasonable soil quality by planting arid friendly grasses.  This would be a project over decades, and possibly centuries.  We do not, however, have decades so the program, if pursued, would be a small supplement for mitigation by conversion to renewable technology, not a substitute for it.

       Further, the energetics and engineering challenge of providing pipelines to water 20 million km^2 would be massive, not to mention the ongoing energy demands of desalinating and pumping the water.  In addition, desert has a much higher clear sky albedo than does forest.  Therefore your project could substantially increase the amount of solar energy absorbed.  This is not entirely clear in that forests have much greater cloudiness than do deserts, but that in turn points to a substantial greenhouse effect from those clouds, and from the increased humidity in the formerly desert regions in general.  It is beyond me to estimate the total forcing from such a project, but it may well be larger than that from the carbon sequestered.  Finally, having grown up in a semi-desert, I have a fondness to arid landscapes.  It is certainly not clear to me that we should condemn all the worlds desert species to exinction in our efforts to tackle global warming, as your plan would require.

29327. Xulonn at 04:00 AM on 16 May 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20A
       

       After reading the David Roberts Vox interview with libertarian guru Jerry Taylor, I'm glad to find out that some libertarian thinkers are staarting to lea towards supporting a carbon tax.  However, when Taylor says " the credible climate scientists — Dick Lindzen, [Pat] Michaels, Judith Curry, Bob Balling," I realized that he has a long ways to go to recognize scientific reality. 

29328. One Planet Only Forever at 02:34 AM on 16 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       mancan18@6,

       It is indeed clear that the public claims made by a few people with science credentials are contrary to the actual science they are aware of, or have little excuse not to be aware of. The same goes for a few people in positions of leadership or a few people who have become very wealthy.

       The popular support for those types of claims, and the poeple who make them, is what needs to be overcome. And the science and history of marketing indicates that misleading marketing can be very effective at delaying the growth of awareness and the acceptance of the actual facts of the matter. It also indicates that eventually the power of the misleading marketing will fail, but potentially only after a long run of success, even damaging success. And even when the clear majority finally accept the developed better understanding of what is going on, many people will continue to believe the unbelievable.

       This matter is one that cannot wait for the inevitable growth of awareness and better understanding of what is going on. It is like the genocide in Rwanda or the need to end Aparthied in South Africa. It requires coordinated global leadership action based on the understanding of what is going on contrary to the interests of some powerful wealthy people.

       One of the strongest motivators for the popularity and persistence of unbelievable beliefs is the opportunity to obtain personal gratification or benefit. The success of Lottery marketing proves the power of the hope of getting-lucky even in cases where the facts clearly are that the vast majority of the hopeful will be losers.

       In the case of the consequences of the production of excess CO2 the facts of the matter are that the ones getting away with benefiting actually have little reason to personally be concerned about the consequences of their actions. People who will not benefit from the continuation of the unacceptable activity, particularly future generations, have little ability to influence what is going on. And the future generations have absolutely no influence. They have no vote today, no investment influence today, no purchasing power influence today, no lobbying influence today. So the popularity and profitability of activity that cannot be continued to be enjoyed by generations far into the future and which creates potential significant problems for those in the future is very difficult to overcome. Simple statements of the facts of the science will not influence someone who has no personal reason to care and chooses not to care.

       So 'people with science credentials and people in positions of leadership and influence who willingly try to make claims and maintain the popularity of belief that do not stand up to rigorous scrutiny given all of the information such people have no excuse to not be aware of' are like the cheaters in a sporting event or people who drive after drinking. They are aware of the unacceptability of what they are doing, but they think they can get away with it and they want to try to get away with it. There is no kind term of reference for that kind of person, contrary to what that kind of person would try to claim.

29329. Klapper at 02:27 AM on 16 May 2015
       Models are unreliable
       

       @Klapper 908:

       In addition to the atmospheric component of global heat changes, I've worked up a graph showing the ice melt component. Arctic sea ice is from PIOMAS data, Greenland and Antarctica are from GRACE data and before that some "generic" estimates of ice mass loss for these 2 continental sheets. Antarctic ice melt is my own model based on average thickness and the delta in ice area. Crude but as you can see, either way ice melt is not a big component of the global heat flux equation.

       

       Compare this with Hansen et al 2011 Figure 12. Ice melt is a very small contribution to the global TOA energy imbalance and recent increases in ice sheet melt are to a degree cancelled out by recent increases in global sea ice. Note I am using the same method as Hansen, a rolling 6 year trend to calculate ice mass changes, and thereby heat fluxs on a global TOA basis.

       Moderator Response:

       [RH] Reduced image site to fit page formatting.

29330. uncletimrob at 17:48 PM on 15 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       @8Neo  Yes, good description.

29331. bozzza at 15:18 PM on 15 May 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20A
       

       Referring to the article on the Larsen-C ice-shelf it says: 

       An ice shelf forms when a glacier on land reaches the coast and flows into the ocean. If the ocean is cold enough, the ice doesn't melt. Instead, it forms a permanently floating sheet of ice.

       What temperatures are we saying makes it too cold for an ice-shelf to melt? By contrast what temperatures are we saying makes it start to melt and how difficult a question is this to actually answer?

29332. wili at 14:34 PM on 15 May 2015
       The Debunking Handbook in Icelandic
       

       hrakinga...I love Icelandic! It also puts me in mind of variation on the motto from Game of Thrones that robertscribbler just coined:

       Winter is Dying!

29333. bozzza at 14:12 PM on 15 May 2015
       Monthly global carbon dioxide tops 400ppm for first time
       

       As far as batteries? That’s a weak solution, the assumption is that renewable energy can then power our car cityscapes: 1) Pollution in creating the infrastructure, 2) expansion of demand to meet supply from car cityscape concept. 3) growing world wealth

       I think it is more than worth reminding ourselves what 'economics' means so, yes, considering exactly these types of points of view. There is an idea called Jevons Pardox which I think is what you talking about and more specifically how there must be a point of diminishing returns,... and  a tipping point at that if I may!

29334. Rob Honeycutt at 11:17 AM on 15 May 2015
       What if Climate Change is Real? Katharine Hayhoe TEDx at Texas Tech
       

       anticorncob6... Because you're looking at a reconstruction of the holocene (the past 10,000 years) and the MWP was only about 800-1200 years ago.

29335. Neo at 11:10 AM on 15 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       Spot on uncletimrob, it is very similar to how Bloom's Taxonomy works. Perhaps I should have emphasised an 'inclusive hierarchy'. Essentially, it just provides deniers with more avenues of excuses and in a way they use it to try and cloak themselves in some scientific respectability (when it suits them).

29336. anticorncob6 at 10:38 AM on 15 May 2015
       What if Climate Change is Real? Katharine Hayhoe TEDx at Texas Tech
       

       Why doesn't her graph around 10:30 in the video show the medieval warming period as clearly as other graphs I have seen?

29337. scaddenp at 10:38 AM on 15 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       What Lindzen says scientifically, (ie in peer-reviewed journals) is not a problem and is addressed there. Addressing what Lindzen says when talking to the naive (eg congress) is the problem. I wonder how many of the statement list here would have been made if addressing an audience of his peers?

29338. mancan18 at 09:51 AM on 15 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       Attaching derogatory labels to opponents of your argument does not promote better understanding in non scientist. It allows your opponents to to stereotype you and then dismiss the worth of anything you say. This in turn polarises the argument to its extremes and eventually leads to a megaphone debate. In a scientific debate, it is the sober, well argued, revealation of scientific information, without resorting to stereotyping of opponents that will ultimately win through, i.e. the information will always trump the stereotype. Also, to convince genuinely skeptical people, rather than the so called climate denier/skeptic/obstructionists, you need good metaphors easily understood by non-scientists, to convince people. In other words SMILE, simple makes it lots easier, is better.

       While Sks presents the scientific arguments, sometimes, the complexity of the scientific debate does not make the science easily accessible to the non-scientist. This leaves a chasm for opponents to AGW and CC to use dismissive stereotypes to drive through their scientific misinformation and political rhetoric. The CO2 problem for the Earth is similar to a swimming pool whose chlorine pump is broken. Even though the quantities are small, if too much chlorine accumulates, you will get burnt; if there is too little, you will get algae. In both cases you won't be able to swim in the pool. Other metaphors, like intravenous administration of a drug, again, only trace quantities are used, but too much you will die, too little you will get sicker and may die. The same goes for a fertilizer/farming metaphor. To much you can't grow anything, too little you get weeds. The minute increase trace argument, can be likened to interest rates on an investment account, and the climate models are unreliable argument, might be better counteracted by wondering why they rely on economic models to make their investements which is surely as complex, and not always accurate. There are plenty of simple metaphors to describe the CO2 problem before explaining the scientific complexity of the carbon cycle where the recent rise in CO2 is put into its proper geological context.

       To question a scientist as eminent as say Richard Lindzen, there is no need to resort to a label. You can use what he presents scientifically. As I understand it, he predicts that doubling CO2 will only yield a 0.5 degree C increase in temperature, hence of no consequence. However, over the last century we have already seen a 0.8 degree C increase in temperature, while CO2 levels have increased by 40%, hardly a doubling. Without any other scientifically verifiable casuality, I would have thought that this would be enough to negate his key argument, that doubling CO2 is not significant. There is no need to use labels like denier. Leave the labels like warmist, carbonite, leftie, greenie etc. to those whose scientific arguments are so weak that they have to resort to them. Also, I would have thought that the 15 degree difference in the average global temperatures between the Earth, with its 200-300 ppm CO2 (today 400 ppm), and the Moon (zero CO2), and with the paleoclimate evidence, would be enough to address the climate sensitivity issue in the mind of non scientists. Presenting simple scientific inconsistencies in the argument of opponents by using simple metaphors is more likely to promote better understanding than resorting to yet another label.

29339. PluviAL at 06:31 AM on 15 May 2015
       Monthly global carbon dioxide tops 400ppm for first time
       

       @ 1 TomR, Both the Tory win and the battery hope are bad news. The good news is that if we look outside the box that we choose to think in, a solution is still possible for another 100 years or so. Political victory will go increasingly to the anti-climate control side, forever. One could extrapolate species self-extinction from this. People want more cars and junk, and they will do anything to get it. Self-delusion is no problem as we all know. As far as batteries? That’s a weak solution, the assumption is that renewable energy can then power our car cityscapes: 1) Pollution in creating the infrastructure, 2) expansion of demand to meet supply from car cityscape concept. 3) growing world wealth.

       The good news is that at 20% of land, deserts represent about 100 million km2. Since they currently only hold less than 2 kg biological Carbon ( C ) per square meter. If these were forested C content could increase to 10 or even much higher, depending on water regimen. A little arithmetic tells us we could accommodate 160 GT into 20% of deserts. If we make them really rich forest, or sequester the biomass into the soil systematically, we can double that to 320 GT, then double the amount of desert we can take out 640 GT. That's greater than the current C budget for 2 degrees right?

       The problem is our imagination is nailed down to old ideas, and new ideas must fit inside those old ideas. However, a good carbon-tax could free up our imagination through market mechanisms.

29340. SkepticalRaptor at 06:21 AM on 15 May 2015
       Ask Me Anything about Climate Science Denial
       

       "Scientific consensus" has a distinct meaning in science. It is not a debate, it is solely dependent upon the quantity and quality of evidence published in high level peer-reviewed journals. As I've written before, it is not a debate, it is not an argument. It is only one thing, it is collective agreement by the scientific experts on a particular scientific issue. It is absolutely based on evidence, and evidence alone. 

       Like "scientific theory", "scientific consensus" has been polluted by the the more common, and less scientific, definitions of these words. In science, a theory is essentially a fact, and a fact that can be predictive. The scientific consensus is not based on a debate amongst 10 scientists in a room. It is not some form of democratic voting. It is just a weighing of the quality and quantity of evidence.
       
       Scientific consensus is what eventually forms a scientific theory, which is predictive in power. Anthropogenic climate change has already achieved a consensus. 
       
       The scientific consensus is solid about anthropogenic climate change. If someone wants to refute that, they need to bring real scientific data in the volume and quality that supports the consensus, not logical fallacies or conspiracy theories.

29341. Ronsch at 05:39 AM on 15 May 2015
       Ice loss in west Antarctica is speeding up
       

       I'd like to point out that 100 years ago Einstein showed that gravity doesn't attract but rather distorts space which causes objects to move towards each other.  Therefore you cannot say "The huge ice sheet has such a large mass that it attracts objects toward it", but rather that it distorts space around it and thus moving the satellite towards it. 

29342. michael sweet at 05:25 AM on 15 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       It strikes me that people who used to call themselves "skeptics" now often call themselves "lukewarmers".  Anthony Watts and many others come to mind.  Lundzen in 1989 said that warming would not exceed the noise in the data.  Hansen was correct in predicting warming.  The "skeptic" brand has been shown to be incorrect.  They are trying to continue their stalling by putting on a new hat.  How long will it take the mainstream media to see through the new outfit?

29343. jenna at 23:43 PM on 14 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       The "Making Science Public" blog (The University of Nottingham) has a very interesting article on the 'Lukewarmer' label, well worth the read.

       http://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingsciencepublic/2015/05/14/lukewarmers/

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Thanks for bringing this most informative post to our attention. It's authored by Brigitte Nerlich, Professor of Science, Language and Society – Institute for Science and Society, The University of Nottingham. Director of the Leverhulme research programme ‘Making Science Public‘ and PI on ESRC funded project devoted to charting climate change debates.

       Nerlich’s blog post has generated a lively comment thread discussion by a number of “luminaries” from Deniersville. 

       PS - Link activated.

29344. Nick Palmer at 23:33 PM on 14 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       I have long suspected that the most voluble deniers, such as Morano, Inhofe, Monckton etc continue to use arguments that they surely know have been debunked for one reason. That is that those sound bite factoids and arguments work very well to sway the minds of the general public, in op-eds, lectures, articles or debates.
       
       Why wouild they want to do that? I think that behind all the out and out antiscience they spout, these people have been secretly convinced by the lukewarmers, such as Lindzen and Spencer, that the ultimate results of us continuing to use fossil fuels won't be very much at all - benefits may balance harm and we'll have enough time to adapt to any harm. 
       
       The loudest deniers, I am speculating, are doing it, even though they don't believe it, because inwardly they have been convinced that we don't need to do much, if anything. However, as political animals, they know that selling the public that is a weak flawed message. FUD works better to achieve their ends.
       
       If they told the public that a few scientists claim that the sensitivity is lowe enough that w wouldn't need to bother, they know that the public would then look at Dana's analogy of throwing dice and weigh up  the risks of believing the lukewarmers or everybody else. I think most ordinary people are sensible enough to judge what to do. They look both ways when crossing the road, they don't buy outdated food. They wouldn't risk their climate on a minority scientific view.
       
       I have come round to the belief that the danger of trusting in the lukewarmer position is the greatest problem we have. I think science and science communicators need to get that message out far bettre than has been the case previously
       
       

29345. bozzza at 17:08 PM on 14 May 2015
       It's not urgent
       

       @7, another indicator worthy of attention in my mind is that Bjorn Lomborgs political message was that 3C was a more sensible target... what this indicates I don't like!

29346. bozzza at 17:03 PM on 14 May 2015
       It's not urgent
       

       @6, There was a famous interview/commerical-I-suppose on Youtube a number of years ago(not sure how many) where Dr David Mills was saying there is now no way we can stay under 440ppm....so the information being floated around does seem a little contradictory and the denial brigade can almost be forgiven for driving mack trucks through what seem like gaping holes of information. Yes, it all depends where you go for information of course.

       My point was that I'm guessing a lot more than 440ppm is locked in- I'm not sure how This David Mills character came up with his numbers so I am of course merely guessing/being potentially paranoid... the IPCC reports are known to be conservative by nature for instance and there was an article just recently on Sterling Engines being tested in South Africa over the last 4 years... combining this with the new phenomenons of formula-e racing and possibly Virgin competing with Tesla for the electric car market and Tesla itself saying it may just go into producing batteries the world does seem to be displaying something of a turn !

        (I could find that video but it may take some searching... the only relevant information was that he though 440ppm was locked in and they didn't know if it was possible to go over the limit and then come back down under at that time but that it would be impossible to not break it in the initial sense!)

29347. uncletimrob at 16:58 PM on 14 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       @Neo.  I believe that it is hierarchical in the same way that a person can be "situated" in one step of Bloom's Taxonomy for say Maths but in another lower or higher step for another subject, say English.  My experience as a teacher suggests that even within one subject a student can move from one step to another depending on the topic.  

       So, I'd suugest that the people you describe are moving between steps of the denier hierarchy, perhaps depending on their level of understanding of each area of discussion/dispute.

29348. Neo at 14:27 PM on 14 May 2015
       Lukewarmers – the third stage of climate denial, gambling on snake eyes
       

       A very informative scale for climate change denial. However, would you describe it as a hierarchical because I notice deniers I converse with will tend to regress or default to lower levels depending upon the topic or even via their desperation. For example, they might admit to warming in relation to evidence of temperature rises but another time will say the planet has parts that are not warming or that these balance out the warming. It would be interesting to do a longitudinal study of deniers over time to see how their denial progresses and with what frequency they might regress.

29349. Rob Honeycutt at 13:58 PM on 14 May 2015
       It's not urgent
       

       Oh, and regarding "point of no return..."  "Point of no return" would likely not be a term anyone would use since it leaves too many loose ends.

       We are currently at about 0.8C over preindustrial global temperature, and with thermal inertia we've banked about 1.2C of temperature rise no matter what we do. 

       That, in and of itself, means there are going to be aspects of climate change that we can't stop and will have to adapt to. After we pass 2C over preindustrial temps we risk passing tipping points where we don't know how much additional warming will result. Researchers are urging us not to pass that 2C limit. At around 0.2C/decade... meh, we have a little bit of time, but we desperately need to be enacting policies now that can keep us below that 2C limit.

29350. Rob Honeycutt at 13:51 PM on 14 May 2015
       It's not urgent
       

       anticorncob6...  The writer said concentrations "could" peak around 400ppm, but clearly we're screaming past that level right now. That was written four years ago, and I'd have to say was a very optimistic outlook.

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