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WheelsOC at 03:21 AM on 20 April 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #16B
RE: Climate plans put world on track for warming above agreed limits
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT), compiled by scientists, said pledges so far put the world on track for average temperatures in the year 2100 three to four degrees Celsius (5.4 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than they were in pre-industrial time. That is well above a U.N. goal of a maximum 2 degrees C (3.6F) rise.
All I can think of is Marcott's Wheelchair.
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Tristan at 01:42 AM on 20 April 2015There's no empirical evidence
I'll just point out, that the notion of 'reversing' climate change doesn't really make sense anyway. What matters is limiting the rate of change. Once it has changed, it's changed, and the bits of the ecosystem/society that can't adapt will break. At that point, there probably isn't that much to gain by trying to force the ppm back down (not that that seems plausible right now).
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RedBaron at 01:20 AM on 20 April 2015There's no empirical evidence
MA Rodger,
Would it be fair to say that if you skip the emissions caused by the loss of ecosystem services, it would then bias your analysis of what could be done by restoring ecosystem services? After all, if your main focus is fossil fuel emissions, then the main focus for mitigation would also be fossil fuel emissions. The whole effect of soil sequestration of CO2 glaringly omitted both as a major cause and as a potential major mitigation strategy.
Now don't get me wrong. I am hugely in favor of alternative energy. At some point that will have to happen anyway, but the more pressing issue is restoring ecosystem services to about 1/2 the planet's land surface. It is the only possible strategy with any hope at all of working. Even going to 0% emissions tomorrow by the entire world will not reverse AGW for hundreds if not thousands of years......unless the ecosystems capability to sequester that carbon is restored. Even more importantly, that ecosystem service is potentially large enough to mitigate fossil fuel emissions even without taking them to 0%.
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2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #16B
#1:
Done!
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michael sweet at 21:04 PM on 19 April 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #16B
Chriskoz,
The data in the graph you do not like goes back to 1980. That is likely the start of the satelite data. It generally is not cherry picking when you show all the data. If you do not like their fitted line you are welcome to draw your own. It is obvious that most of the change has taken place in the last ten years. The article in CB discusses the 2014 data and links the data. I presume the 2014 data was not included in the paper because it was not available when the paper was written. Your dismissal of a paper without reading it because you do not like the way they worked up the data is unsupported.
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chriskoz at 20:45 PM on 19 April 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #16B
About the new research by Marco Tedesco - "Darkening ice speeds up Greenland melt" on CB.
I don't have access to the actual article refered only as Tedesco et al. 2015 - apparently only submitted, not accepted yet.
But the albedo timeline graph, as presented by CB, suffers from cherry-picked point (1996) to show the apparent trendline change in albedo so that it looks more "alarming". That's the same type of deception science deniers use to point out that "it hasn't warmed since 19xx" and debunked by the escalator.
The main fallacy the deniers' method is that when you want to show the change of trends in a signal, you have to draw the trend lines so that the lines are continuous - the are not "steps" between their ends. Otherwise your trend changes are escalator-like bunkum. For that reason, I would not accept Tedesco et al. 2015 if I was reviewing it. Hopefully reviewers will be helpful there and let Marco fix this mistake in this article on an interesting subject.
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MA Rodger at 19:54 PM on 19 April 2015There's no empirical evidence
RedBaron @254.
The references I linked to @253 consider FF emissions from 1751-2010 and "The contribution of LULCC to anthropogenic carbon emissions were about 33% of total emissions over the last 150yr (Houghton, 1999)". So, no, the emissions argued by Bill Ridduman are not included.
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Leto at 19:16 PM on 19 April 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #16B
Some of you may be familiar with the latest antics of Tony Abbott, the Australian PM. He is giving 4 million dollars to the discredited climate contrarian Lomborg.
If you think this is a bad idea, please sign the petition:
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RedBaron at 19:13 PM on 19 April 2015There's no empirical evidence
MA Rodger,
Are you including the ~300 GtC emissions before 1850 that Ruddiman discusses or the lack of decline added on even to that seen in previous glacial cycles?
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MA Rodger at 18:41 PM on 19 April 2015There's no empirical evidence
Red Baron @250.
Firstly I am sorry that I missed seeing your reply until now.
I must say that I am not a fan of somebody pointing me at a 20 minute U-Tube video. If somebody cannot condense their argument into something shorter (I was taught anything that doesn't fit on a side of A4) it almost always means they don't then understand the argument being presented. Sait, of course has a simple argument that has been expanded to fit the TED format. Strangely, I see nothing shorter available, rather just a longer one (that I haven't bothered with).There is much evidence within this talk by Sait that says he is no expert. He is wrong to say that 50% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions presently end up in the oceans. It is lower, perhaps 35%. He is wrong to suggest that CO2 becomes carbonic acid in water. Most of this CO2 simply remains as absorbed CO2. (To be entirely correct, it is overwhelmingly the bicarbonate resulting from the CO2 that causes the acidity.) Acidification resulting from the additional CO2 has not reached 30%, whatever that is supposed to mean.
I do not find such errors encouraging when so much else needs to be said but which is ignored.Sait's central assertion that 250Gt(C) has been emitted by fossil fuels (and breathing??!!!) while 467 Gt(C) has been released from humus is not supported by any evidence. Indeed, the figure from CIDAC give FF emissions to 2010 as 365 Gt(C) with roughly 50% extra from changing land use (ie 185 Gt(C)) according to Houghton et al (2012) which mostly is accounted by deforestation. Thus CO2 emissions to 2010 not involving humus are considered to amount to 550 Gt(C), over twice the figure asserted by Sait. He offers not support for his assertion. Until he does, his words remain unconvincing. These talks by Sait are a bit old now. The continued silence is very telling.
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RedBaron at 17:05 PM on 19 April 2015There's no empirical evidence
Ok I see no comment, but I would like to present some actual evidence and analysis from a completely different source than Retallack, Savory, or Sait. These two from Bill Ruddiman and Chris Sandom respectively:
THE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ERA BEGAN THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO
Humans Blamed for Extinction of Mammoths, Mastodons & Giant Sloths
The interesting thing to me is that these widely separate lines of investigation, from modern agricultural practices to ancient human impacts to paleosoils all are slowly converging on the idea that soils as part of a whole ecosystem have a much larger impact on the ecosystem services than previously thought. Particularly the ecosystem services of climate control and the carbon cycle. Namely I hypothesize the AGW effects we are seeing now are actually primarily the result of multiple trophic cascades caused by the spread of mankind and then the rise of civilization. Further, I hypothesize that fossil fuel emissions are a problem primarily due to the ecosystem service of carbon sequestration into the soils was already severely damaged, first by the megafauna extinctions, and then by agriculture, both man made. These diverse lines of inquiry are not completed into a fully developed synthesis as of yet, but I am convinced this is the right track not only in better understanding the atmosperic CO2 levels, but also how to reverse them.
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uncletimrob at 13:12 PM on 19 April 2015The Rise of Skeptical Science
Thanks! John, you touched on some very inmportant issues that educators face, in particular the lack of a "filter" that distiguishes between actual science and pseudo science. I believe you are correct in that this is in part because real science is "hard" and pseudo science is often couched in language that is easy to digest. SS breaks through the "hard" barrier very well, with easy to understand graphics and language that an interested High School student can understand. And, I have to say that many of the students I come in contact with ARE interested in global warming/climate change (despite that my area is Mathematics - although I have taught Physics in the past).
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denisaf at 08:59 AM on 19 April 2015New Video: The Trouble at Totten Glacier
It is ironic that humans devised the means of irreversibly using up limited crustal stocks of fossil fuels to provide physical energy with the unintended consequence of causing irreversible rapid climate change. So now we have problems of the kind discussed here while we are losing the physical capability to address them. Oil is running out so fuel for aircraft will be posing a problem that will impinge on studies of what is happening in Antarctica and elsewhere.
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gorm raabo larsen at 07:55 AM on 19 April 2015The Rise of Skeptical Science
... excellent... and very important... thank you very much !
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Leto at 19:01 PM on 18 April 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #15
I'm hoping it is okay to post something slightly off-topic...
I googled for 'real climate' because the PC I was on did not have the Real Climate page bookmarked, and was somewhat surprised to see this as the third link in the Google results:
http://thefederalist.com/2015/04/17/what-it-would-take-to-prove-global-warming/
The material at the end of the link is obviously thoughtless denialist nonsense, but the question is: why it is so highly ranked in Google? Is thefederalist.com doing some dodgy search engine optimisation (SEO), or is Google giving this site more profile than it deserves?
If there are are dodgy SEO tactics being employed, I will complain directly to Google, who usually respond to such complaints by re-ranking the dodgy site.
If it is Google who is pedalling this nonsense, a different response is appropriate.
Hoping some of you have some insights.
Cheers,
Leto.
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PluviAL at 03:20 AM on 18 April 2015Western Canada’s glaciers could shrink by as much as 95% by 2100, study finds
@1, 2, 3: Yes, it makes it look as if we are at a precipice. But maybe we are, and this just depicts it graphically. We are aware of the potentail abyss from other works, this may just show how close we are. But you are right, that should have been the point of the article.
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One Planet Only Forever at 23:59 PM on 17 April 2015Western Canada’s glaciers could shrink by as much as 95% by 2100, study finds
The graphic presentations could have been less questionable if they had included the line of multi-year averages through the historical values. And it may have been helpful to include values prior to 1980 even if they were from a less precise information source or evaluation.
The model forecast will be a multi-year average trend line. Models are not set up to predict the rather random yearly variability of the systems they model. That would be a waste of time and effort.
The forecast average line will look 'out of line' with the jagged annual historical data line, especially when the most recent annual line was going up (as is the case with this report).
A clearer way to present this would be to have the average line through the historical data presented by a line matching the intensity of the forecast line, with the annual jagged line being a less intense background-style presentation.
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CBDunkerson at 21:30 PM on 17 April 2015BEST Results Consistent with Human-Caused Global Warming
qinqo, my take on Muller is that he bought in to the whole 'climate change is a hoax' mythology hook line and sinker, but had enough integrity to acknowledge when his own research disproved (again, past research had done so before he ever started) one of those lies. Unfortunately, the same failures of logic and character which led him to buy into complete nonsense in the first place have also prevented him from thinking, 'Gee, I just made a fool of myself... maybe I should re-evaluate some of this stuff'... and thus he continues to make completely ridiculous claims on other aspects of the global warming 'debate'.
Basically, if he has done research he'll go with what his data shows, but if he hasn't done the research he'll go with the 'skeptic' misinformation. It seems like he may think he is the only competent scientist on the planet... because he places the blog rantings of 'skeptics' above peer-reviewed research from the scientific community.
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qinqo at 09:56 AM on 17 April 2015BEST Results Consistent with Human-Caused Global Warming
What am I to make about this guy Muller? To me he seems really inconsistent. Unless you take into account that he is often promoting natural gas and fracking. (before and after his 'conversion')
He still uses his 'old ways' sometimes to diminish AGW, even after claiming that he is certain AGW is real. Why then is he still advocating the use of a fossil fuel? Even a method shown to be really devastating to earth's climate.
One of the things that got me convinced that he is shady is his claim that 'hide the decline' is a reference to temperatures. This was a while after when the investigation of the scientists took place. It seems to me that he might be a covert shill for natural gas. The 'conversion' study was sponsored by Koch. He seems to be balancing on a tightrope.
The study accomplished two things:
1. Good for 'skeptical' public: there is a new independent study acknowledging antropogenic global warming. Deniers will have a hard time denying this. True skeptics in the general public will be more inclined to taking AGW serious.
2. Good for Koch: there is a new 'trustworthy' scientist risen, who in order to curb global warming, is advocating the burning of Natural Gas and the 'clean' technique of fracking. Natural gas containing 80% methane. Methane: stays not as long in the atmosphere as CO2, but does have a greater greenhouse effect.
What am I to make of this? Can someone explain why natural gas is a better solution than renewables. Muller seems to think it is the only real affordable option we have. Renewables are as of now too expensive. (what about nuclear energy?)
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uncletimrob at 06:24 AM on 17 April 2015Western Canada’s glaciers could shrink by as much as 95% by 2100, study finds
Yes, I wondered about the abrupt changes as well. Perhaps someone more knowledgable can explain them, as the article doesnt really do so.
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Infopath at 03:35 AM on 17 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Tom @44,
Thanks for expanding on that.
"His dragging out that old misattribution to Einstein rather proves that point."
That's what I thought too.
Funny how Einstein would have preferred "theory of invariance" (absolute — speed of light), rather than relativity... beautiful.
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ianw01 at 01:57 AM on 17 April 2015Western Canada’s glaciers could shrink by as much as 95% by 2100, study finds
Those abrupt changes in slope between past and projected trends do not make these projections look particularly credible, particularly for the Interior. I wonder what step change the models have happening at the present moment?
Intuitively, I would expect the future shape may look more like the increasing slope of current actic sea ice plots.
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bozzza at 18:24 PM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
@ 36 @ Rob P: To summarise, does this mean EKMAN SUCTION Ekman Suction is the concept of "Flotation" in action?
Moderator Response:[JH] The use of "all caps" comnstitutes shouting and is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
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Tom Curtis at 15:08 PM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Infopath @42:
"Everything is relative," as the pop version of Einstein's theory goes. Not so. That statement, for instance, is absolutely wrong. The scope of special relativity is rather more narrow. It concerns only very special situations, very special observers, very special questions of relativity and absoluteness."
"Albert Einstein was unhappy about the name "theory of relativity". He preferred "theory of invariance". The reason is that [one] cornerstone of his 1905 theory of relativity is that the measured velocity of light is the same (invariant) regardless of any relative motion between a laboratory and the source of light. What Einstein feared came to pass when the popular catchphrase of his theory became "everything is relative." It was snatched up by people not acquainted with the scientific context, who regarded the theory as evidence in support of their own social views."
See also here.
I consider it irrelevant whether or not Carson is technically a scientist (ie, has a PhD in a scientific discipline and/or has published in the peer reviewed scientific literature). His views on this topic, and on global warming in general are clearly not scientific views. Rather, they are pseudo-science. His dragging out that old misattribution to Einstein rather proves that point.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 13:56 PM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Peter.
From the first link scadenp gave you
"To a certain degree, Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) ecosystems are similar: Cold bottom water from moderate depths, rich in nutrients, is transported to the euphotic zone by a combination of trade winds, Coriolis force and Ekman transport. The resultant high primary production fuels a rich secondary production in the upper pelagic and nearshore zones, but where O2 exchange is restricted, it creates oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) at shelf and upper slope (Humboldt and Benguela Current) or slope depths (California Current). These hypoxic zones host a specifically adapted, small macro- and meiofauna together with giant sulphur bacteria that use nitrate to oxydise H2S"
So, "This can only occur, in this area remote from human influence, from undersea volcanic activity."
Nope, you assumption is wrong. There is another major source, anaerobic sulphur bacteria that thrive in anoxic conditions!
Volcanic activity isn't the only source of H2S! Simply assuming that it is is sloppy reasoning. If ou want to evaluate an idea you need to consider geological evidence, oceanographic/hydrological and fluid mechanics evidence, and biological evidence.
==========================================
And..."Could it be that warmer water rises?"
Only if it is warmer than the water above it! If cold water is warmed but not enough to make it warmer than the water above, it doesn't rise. Example. If water at 4 Deg C is warmed to 6 deg C it can't rise if the water above it is 20 deg C.
So how much warming?
Peter, unquantitative arguments are worthless.
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Infopath at 11:43 AM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Peter Carson@30: "(Wasn't it Einstein who said all things are relative?)"
Uh... no, I don't think he did. Do you have a reference/link?
(Sorry, OT but couldn't resist (feel free to delete).)
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rockytom at 07:03 AM on 16 April 2015New textbook on climate science and climate denial
To #19 Bappleby13
I have tried to get information from our publisher on specific adoptions but have not yet succeeded. Springer says they can provide me with statistics from each region (state?) but not individual institutions. I find this difficult to believe. I will forward a copy of your kind offer and approach them in a different way in hopes of receiving the pertinent information. If you have a list of the "distracting little errors and duplications" I would appreciate receiving it at rockytom09@gmail.com. We are in the process of preparing for a 2nd edition for sometime in the near future, as soon as John and I complete Volume 2, "Earth's Climate History" and John finishes his MOOC and Ph.D.
Thank you for your submittal and offer. Tom
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Tristan at 06:55 AM on 16 April 2015Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
toolate: As the mod's suggested link points out, respiration doesn't really have a net impact. The domesticated ruminant (eg cows, sheep, goats) population is another matter though - entric fermentation of plant matter in their stomachs generates methane, a potent GHG.
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Mal Adapted at 06:13 AM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Peter Carson: "Oh! And I am a scientist. What are you doing here?"
Peter, what evidence can you give us that you are a scientist, so we can judge your claim for ourselves? Your comments here don't evince advanced scientific training, nor the inclination to approach the topic of undersea volcanic heat flux as a scientist would.
A person whose scientific ideas have passed peer review and been published in appropriate refereed venues can be considered a scientist. I searched Google Scholar for publications by "Peter Carson" or "Carson, Peter", but the only hits were published in medical journals, on the topic of heart failure. Was that you? If not, please provide citations to your peer-reviewed scientific publications.
In any case, we will draw our own conclusions about whether you're a scientist or not. BTW, have you heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect?
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toolate at 04:46 AM on 16 April 2015Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
In terms of identifying MM Co2 emissions, how should the CO2 exhaled by the planet's population be counted? Should CO2 emissions resulting from farming, crop or livestock, be counted as MM or natural? Same question for CO2 generated from natural decomposition on our world's landfills. Human waste, treated in sewage plants and piped into rivers and oceans, generates CO2 - natural or anthropogenic? Should the definition of MM Co2 be limited to only that which exits a tail pipe or smoke stack? Even if all CO2 emissions from burning fosil fules could be sharply curtaild or eliminated through sequestration, each year there are more people on the planet, and with each year life expectancey is longer. We all need to eat and breath and as a consequence of life need excrete waste. Surely all sources of MM Co2 should be considered and counted in an appropriate way.
Moderator Response:[TD] See "Does Breathing Contribute to CO2 Buildup in the Atmosphere?" It has both Basic and Intermediate tabbed panes.
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DSL at 02:52 AM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Peter: "ARGO is unlikely to show heating. I think the floats only take a reading every 30 mins so that they are likely to miss an actual eruption; the warm water would likely just float up past them without being recorded. They’d also have to be situated over the correct position."
This is the most ridiculous thing I've read in months. Volcanic action that produces enough heat content to warm the El Nino 3/3.4 regions for months just magically slips by dozens of Argo floats. This is what happens when a pet theory is forcefully driven through the actual data: Bizarro Physics. -
PhilippeChantreau at 00:45 AM on 16 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Scaddenp presents numerous references that none of your arguments address Peter. I'm sorry but you're not being any more convincing by repeating the same arguments without any more backup than before.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say about references. You claimed to be a scientist. Scientists refer to the scientific litterature. This site is about science and the whole premise to its existence is to bring up what real science says about a subject. The comment policy of the site indicates that claims should be backed up by scientific references. Peer-review is a minimum standard, there is no reson to go below that. "Sources accesssible to the general reader" can be anything and everything, that's no basis to conduct a discussion about science.
The H2S has been shown to be of organic origin. The entire ecosystem suffers when cold water upwelling stops, and everything below the fish in the food web starts dying. The fish eventually die too but by then H2S from the other organisms that have died before is noticeable.
No seismic activity that would be caused by increasing volcanism has been observed around the events.
Birds that rely on anchovies for 80% of their diet are going to continue looking for anchovy at sea until they no longer can. Birds dying of exhaustion or starvation at sea is really not an unusual occurrence a all. Sea birds that are hungry do not stay on shore, they go look for food. One of Scaddenp references above mentions that bird die-offs have been observed during El-Nino events as far California, Oregon, Alaska and the Bering Sea. Large scale weather events can and do kill birds.
At this point, there is a lot more evidence against your theory than there is in its favor.
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funglestrumpet at 23:42 PM on 15 April 2015Andy Lacis responds to Steve Koonin
This discussion is way above my level, but, having tried to follow it, I cannot say that I have seen the influence of gravity in anyone's comments - perhaps I missed it. Specifically, what occurs to me is that as ice sheets melt, so their gravity diminishes leading to a fall in sea-level around them. Could this be important with the WAIS? As it melts, so the sea-level falls and thus places the fracture point under more bending stress, which in turn might complete the fracture, leaving it free to float off (though grind off is probably more correct) to deeper waters?
Probably unimportant, but felt the need to raise it just in case. ('Out of the mouths of babes and innocents' and all that!)
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ranyl at 21:39 PM on 15 April 2015Andy Lacis responds to Steve Koonin
Hi Glenn,
However despite all that NH ice weren't the meltwater pulses from the last deglaciation primarily from the SH?
And this quote is interesting,
"Our new RSL chronology permits the first robust calculation of rates of relative sea-level change throughout the past 150,000 years (Fig. 3c). This reveals that rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2mper century during all major phases of ice-volume reduction, and were typically up to 0.7m per century (possibly higher, given the smoothing in our method) when sea-level exceeded 0m during the LIG (Fig. 3c); the latter is consistent with independent estimates21,22."
Grant K.M. et al (2012) "Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years"
And the top of WAIS is melting in a non linear fashion
"The nonlinearity of melt observed in the JRI ice-core record also highlights the particular vulnerability of areas in the polar regions where daily maximum temperatures in summer are close to 0 C and/or where summer isotherms are widely spaced, such as along the east and west coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula (Supplementary Fig. S3). In these places even modest future increases in mean atmospheric temperature could translate into rapid increases in the intensity of summer melt and in the poleward extension of areas where glaciers and ice shelves are undergoing decay caused by atmospheric-driven melting."
Abram N.J et al (2013) Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century, Nature Geoscience
“The need to improve upon the uncertainty in the LIG ESL estimates is best seen in terms of its consequences on melting from both Greenland and Antarctica during the LIG. Current modelling and data-based estimates converge on a 2- to 4-m contribution to ESL from Greenland and on a maximum contribution of +3.3 m from West Antarctica (32). Thus, the lower limit estimate of the peak LIG ESL (+5.5 m) is consistent with such contributions from both Greenland and West
Antarctica, but the upper limit (+9 m) implies additional melt-water contribution from adjacent sectors in East Antarctica.”
A. Dutton and K. Lambeck (2012) Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial, Science
“However, the retreat of these southernmost terrestrial ice margins within centuries of an increase in boreal summer insolation of only 1–2 W m–2 (Fig. 5a) suggests that terrestrial ice margins near their climatic limit are responsive to small changes in radiative forcing.”
“However, the final collapse of the marine portion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at ~8.2 kyr ago occurred in less than 130 years and raised eustatic sea level 0.8–2.2 m75, which is a timescale of more importance to global society”
Anders E. Carlson and Kelsey Winsor (2012), Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet responses to past climate warming, Nat. Geoscience
So I agree Hansen is hopefully being too bold, as I said already, however with the Weddell Icesheet under threat as sea levelsrise and Southern Ocean winds progress Sotuhwards, and the below seabed portions of EAIS, mean that 1-2m by 2100 is lookingmore liley especially when considering the amount of extra heat into the whole system, far more than in the LIG,whose overall global additional wattage input was due to GHG mainly.
We passed 300ppm a long time ago, so it is clear that to melt ice takes time indeed, however that isn't that reassuring as since 1990 ice melt has accelerated markedly in all areas and the heatinput into the oceans in the last 10 years alone is remarkable compared to previous melt periods and for melting seabed icesheets that must count, especialy as West PAC waters find their way to the Antartica quite quickly and that is warming quite rapidly.
Further sea level isn't even, and the East Coast of America gets more than its fair share, 1m globally about 2m EUSA.
Put it this way, real estate investment in New York isn't a long term investment option on solid ground I'd venture.
It si weird how the early Pliocene was 3-5C warmer at 350-400ppm (0.25 to 0.42 of a doubling), considering the CS of only 3C for a doubling or 560ppm, hhhmm, oh yeah that is right the CS for full long term equilibrium is double the CS reported by the IPCC forgot about that, it makes more sense now, but still if 350ppm (and that looks more likely now) then still need long term CS of at least 12C if the 3C lower estimate is true, even if it was 2C (some studies say 2C, mainly Hansen as by the by, just make melting more susceptible to temperature rise as sea elvels still 20-25m higher), you still need a long term equilibrium CS of 8C. And the sun was cooler a little bit only a very small bit, all the orbitial parameters actually add zero to the global overall heat input and the continents were close enough not to matter that much, so not much comfort in loooking for other heat sources.
The NH did have a totally different temperature profile though, interesting, I ownder if the Hadley cell system was different back then due to polar equatorial temperature differential being so much lower, as that would definately affect ice melt in Greenland, keeping in mind there was no GIS then.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 19:27 PM on 15 April 2015Andy Lacis responds to Steve Koonin
Ranyl
I tend to agree with Tom that Hansen's view is at the extremes on a single century scale - on multi-century all bets are off. When the high rates of melt occurred we had major ice sheets in Canada/US, Scandinavia, Northern Europe and western Russia. Also southern South America and the Australian highlands. Possibly also areas of the Arctic sea ice had become like West Antarctica, grounded on the sea floor and projecting significantly above sea level. So a much larger area from which melt could occur.
To produce similar melt rates today we would need much higher temperatures to trigger much higher melt rates per km2 since there are so much less km2 available.
That said, I recall a paper published a couple of years ago - can't find it now - looking at fossil beaches in Western Australia from the last Interglacial - the Eemian. Sea levels were reported as being around 5 meters higher than now for much of the interglacial then near the end they spiked higher to more like 9-10 meters higher.
This suggests a sudden major ice collapse with the WAIS the likely culprit.
It is interesting to look at the ice core data for temperature history during the Eemian. They spiked higher than today but only for a short period. Perhaps some major disruption in southern ocean currents around the WAIS triggered an ice collapse and the Albedo change triggered a spike in warming. Then the currents reverted and it was all reversed.
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RedBaron at 19:22 PM on 15 April 2015CO2 limits won't cool the planet
Of course CO2 limits won't cool the planet. You even admit that yourself. The problem however is stated in the form of a false dichotomy. Mitigation in order to work needs every little bit from every possible technology available. The largest of course, by many orders of magnitude, is the soil sink potential. Next comes alternative energy and then conservation. Tree growth and chemical scrubbing are barely a blip on the screen. Not saying we shouldn't try them too, but the net effects are minimal. Soil on the other hand is depleted of carbon, more carbon than is in excess in the air. The technologies to get that carbon back in the soil are very well established agricultural science methodologies and already beginning to be practised in the field by ordinary farmers and ranchers. We just have get serious and do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yPjoh9YJMk
I know that's just a Youtube vid, but that speaker is one of several USDA NRCS case studies.
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ranyl at 18:54 PM on 15 April 2015Andy Lacis responds to Steve Koonin
Well Tom,
I never said I agreed with Hansen merely pointed out why he felt 5m was possible, to add to that he bases his estimates on thepotential from previous melt rates and the doubling time of the acceleration of the melt already being seen in both icesheets.
Further can you name one ice sheet expert who opinion isn't in some way curtailed by alarmist branding!
There are many factors involved, although the 6-9m from the LIG wasn't all from the NH therefore the same forcings that helped loss of the Southern Greenland Ice sheet also would have been making the SH colder yet, atleast half of the melt came from there, implying that the higher CO2 level of the LIG at ~300ppm certainly helped some.
Then there all the new findings, such as the ehat transfer into the centreand base of the ice sheet due to surface melt heat advection, which those experts wouldn't have been taking into account,
Phillips T et al, (2013) Evaluation of cryo-hydrologic warming as an explanation for increased ice velocities in the wet snow zone, Sermeq Avannarleq, West Greenland , Journal of Geophysical Research
“The sun melts ice into water at the surface, and that water then flows into the ice sheet carrying a tremendous amount of latent energy,” said William Colgan, a coauthor and CIRES adjunct research associate. “The latent energy then heats the ice.”
“It could imply that ice sheets can discharge ice into the ocean far more rapidly than currently estimated,” Phillips said. “It also means that the glaciers are not finished accelerating and may continue to accelerate for a while. As the area experiencing melt expands inland, the acceleration may be observed farther inland.”
“Previous studies estimated that it would take centuries to millennia for new climates to increase the temperature deep within ice sheets. But when the influence of meltwater is considered, warming can occur within decades and, thus, produce rapid accelerations.”
“Traditionally, latent energy has been considered a relatively unimportant factor, but most glaciers are now receiving far more meltwater than they used to and are increasing in temperature faster than previously imagined,” Colgan said. “The chunk of butter known as the Greenland Ice Sheet may be softening a lot faster than we previously thought possible.”
Then there is also the new evidence of the Pine Island glacier having gone into irreversible melt and it also looks like the Thwaites and a few others will follow suit.
And from the Jevrejeva paper, “The AR5 addresses this issue by suggesting that 'only the collapse of the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century”
So the question definately is rate, and I agree 5m by Hansen is a definitive high end, but previously observed (with more icesheets but land based ones), and the by 2100 somewhere between 1-2m seems more likely, although the accelerating rates being observed for icesheet melting is concerning for it can only accelerate further, and that acceleration as it lowers icesheet height and more seabed icesheets get undermined beyond critical melt back, can only accelrate again due to dynamic mechanisms fedding back on themselves.
And then waht sea level rise by 2150 as rates keep accelerating and then by 2200?? Rome been arround several 1000's por years as has London.
And as CO2 isn't going anywhere for a very long time it is essentail to realise that at 350ppm -400ppm we are committed to an early Pliocene climate, whatever efforts are made to stop emissions, only taking CO2 out of the atmosphere can change that, and to take 50ppm out is a collossal task indeed, and we still progress at top rates, and forest fires, permafrost melt and soil respirations are all going to add to the burden.
Finally what does 1-2m mean?
Well moving New York for a starter for ten!
If we get 4-5m by 2200, then that is most of Florida, Bangladesh, Holland and Miami already floods at high tides!
Moderator Response:[DB] Shortened and hyperlinked URL that was breaking page formatting.
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scaddenp at 18:42 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Peter, I would then also ask you back your arguments from the peer-reviewed literature.
Tom has already pointed you to carefully calculated example on heat production. Note that OHC is change from baseline, so to blame global warming on volcanic activity, then you need to have an increase in heat flow through 20 century above that of heat production in previous centuries. Furthermore, conduction and convection are continuous processes - you dont get instantaneous movement of heat except from ejecta to surface and that could only account for a minisule amount of the heat produced. You are going to have to that huge volume of material necessary for the heat to be as ejecta! If you postulate underwater volcanism then you predict convective cells based ocean ridges. No such thing is observed. The TAO should also see this and it is most certainly in the right position since designed to observe El Nino.
Sulphur isotopes cant be used for dating as far as I am aware, but for fractionation try here. Furthermore organic hydrogen would contain tritium and inorganic none.
Current theory is not descriptive - it is present in dynamic models. However, the process is chaotic and thus not predictable in the short term. And yes, I do have confidence in physical models that reproduce the character of El nino versus a theory with no plausable physical basis.
As to Walker, the seismic activity does not equal volcanism and in fact, the correlation is the other way round - El nino triggering faulting from plate flexure. Eg see here or here or here.
What is your source for cause of sea bird deaths? This reference and this suggest resource loss. For a scientific discussion, please stick to peer-reviewed sources.
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Peter Carson at 16:57 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
My 36 applies to @33 PhilippeChantreau
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Peter Carson at 16:09 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
1. How does cold water upwell?
2. As for my evidence? The observations (re fish deaths etc have been reported widely. I’ve found no difficulty using Google or Encyclopaedia Britannica. (I’m old-school to still prefer paper! Anyway, I prefer to use sources that are readily available to all and which may be more accessible to the general reader such as may be on sites such as this. I’m no snob!)
Anyway, H2S does have its distinctive odour, noticed by the fishermen before decomposition sets in. They are in the area all the time so they’d notice.
Sea birds are dead at sea – they were active - not on the land where their nests are and where one would expect them to die if weakened by lack of food. They are poisoned at sea.
3. You’ll notice I’ve referenced Walker in my reply to scanddenp, in support of seismicity. When I spoke with Walker a few years ago, he seemed rather worn down by the attacks on him. I don’t blame him! (I’ve also corresponded with him by emails.) I reached his conclusion, but using thermodynamics, in the mid 90s but also had that publication discarded.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - the answer to No.1 is Ekman suction. The large-scale areas of upwelling are on the equator and the eastern side of the ocean basins, such as the Pacific coasts of North & South America. Surface water is displaced by the drag of the wind on the uppermost layers. Persistent winds cause seawater from the deep to be drawn up to the surface to replace the water that has been 'pushed' away.
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Peter Carson at 15:30 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Thanks scanddenp, in that you do provide scientific back-up to your arguments.
1. Calculation: Annually but using the low figure of only using East Pacific Rise and discounting the extra effect of Galapagos Ridge.
Height (2 km) x length (say 1,000 km) x Width (0.1 m) = 0.2 cu km
EN happens one year in five on average. This gives 1 cu.km per thousand km of Ridges in the vicinity.
2. I don’t know of anySulphurisotope that could be used for dating or origin purposes. Please inform.
3. Your “1/ El Nino should be correlated with change in undersea volcanic productivity. None that I can see.”
Try Daniel A Walker (a geophysicist – I’ve spoken with him some years ago) Eos vol 76, 1995 p 33 to 36. “More evidence indicates link between El Nino and seismicity”.
[Come in Spinner!]
4. You seem confident in the current “theory” for EN. It should match data rather well - it’s not actually a theory but a description of events! It has no predictive capabilities whatsoever. For example, how does it explain how El Nino got its name, ie occurring near Xmas? It can’t.
(I can! - but you’ll have to wait for me to put it onto my site.)
What causes theWalkercirculation to weaken? Why do the tropical westward winds drop preceding an EN, especially since the west now has a build-up of warm water pushed there? That should increase these winds!
5. ARGO is unlikely to show heating. I think the floats only take a reading every 30 mins so that they are likely to miss an actual eruption; the warm water would likely just float up past them without being recorded. They’d also have to be situated over the correct position.
Heat from volcanic activity on the bottom will not stay there waiting for its temperature to be taken but will rise.
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scaddenp at 14:52 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Interesting Phillipe. Looks like hypothesis was looked at in 1980s and discarded for obvious reasons.
Calling Rob Painting: It seems to me that ENSO only affects top 300m of water column. Is this correct?
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - See Roemmich and Gilson (2011) - The Global Ocean Imprint of ENSO
Time-series of globally-averaged (60°S to 60°N) temperature anomaly from the monthly mean, versus pressure (dbar). The contour interval is 0.02°C and values are smoothed by 3-month running mean. (b) Time-series of globally-averaged SST (black, °C), T160 (blue), and the N34 regression estimate for SST (red).
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sidd at 14:47 PM on 15 April 2015The history of emissions and the Great Acceleration
To keep Ruddiman's view in perspective:
"The best-justified alignment of stages 11 and 1 indicates that the current interglaciation should have ended ~2000 years ago (or could end in the near future)."
from DOI: 10.1177/0959683610387172
and
" ... net early anthropogenic warming contribution of between 0.7°C and 1.2°C. This proposed early anthropogenic warming is comparable with, and likely larger than, the measured 0.85°C warming during the last 150 years. If the simulations based on the early anthropogenic hypothesis are correct, total anthropogenic warming has been twice or more the industrial amount registered to date."
and
"As summarized in Figure 3 (inset histograms) the net early anthropogenic warming of 1.2K is slightly larger than the instrumentally observed 0.85K warming of the industrial era to date. The total anthropogenic warming to date of ~2K is more than double the observed instrumental warming during the industrial era."
"These two phases of warming occurred within different contexts. The industrial-era warming has rapidly driven global temperature to a level that is poised to escape the top of its natural range over the last several hundred thousand years. In contrast, the early anthropogenic warming acted to offset part of a natural cooling but kept climate within the high end of its natural range. This natural cooling, most clearly evident at high northern latitudes, is generally ascribed to reduced summer insolation. The net effect of the natural Holocene cooling and the partially offsetting early anthropogenic warming was a small global cooling (Marcott et al., 2013)."
from
DOI: 10.1177/2053019614529263
So but for us, we would be in the beginning of a glaciation, but now we further force the climate into regimes unseen in at least a few hundred millennia well into the warm greenhouse of Kidder and Worsley described in
DOI: 10.1130/G131A.1
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PhilippeChantreau at 14:35 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
volcano.oregonstate.edu/el-nino
www.ucar.edu/communications/gcip/m12anchovy/m12pdf.pdf
Pete Carson, I find your statement "I am a scientist" and your hypothesis "there is something in the water" do not quite square. Some evidence and peer-reviewed work is needed to support support such statements but you don't cite any in your comment.
A first step would be to lok at what actual scientific work has been done on the issue. With a very brief research, I found the article linked above. It specifies that several species of guano birds have a diet constituted of as much as 80% anchovy, and the anchovy populations off Peru have decreased in some El-Nino years, although they are not as affected as other sea life. Data do not show anchovy mortality to be caused by El-Ninos in any clear relation, except for the very large 1972 event. So far the evidence indicates that the hydrogen sulfide is procuded by decomposing organisms that are starved during El-Nino events, during which the normal cold water upwelling is stifled and the enire ecosystem suffers massive losses.
I had a hard time finding credible sources that had bothered to look at this but so far, it also appears that there is no correlation between any volcanic/seismic activity and El Nino events.
Per what I could find, your theory does not appear credible. What is your evidence?
Moderator Response:[RH] Shortened link.
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scaddenp at 14:19 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Your definition of "definitely" is wishful thinking. Firstly you would need to show H2S of volcanic origin. In fact, their biological origin is well studied as is effect of El nino. (eg see here but numerous other literature. Also this). The die-off isnt temperature per se but hypoxia and nutrient loss. There isnt a trail of death because warmer waters are already relatively barren compared to the nutrient-rich humbolt currrent - and yes, it hits the food chain all the way up to humans.
"This can only occur, in this area remote from human influence, from undersea volcanic activity" This is simply not true. See above reference but also very detailed study here. The H2S is of organic origin and associated with the changing sea conditions.
Now obviously noticing things like El Nino and volcanically active margin coincide is the source of scientific hypothesis but if you are going to make them work then you have derive predictions from your hypothesis and test them against observation. Now your theory appears to make a number of predictions:
1/ El Nino should be correlated with change in undersea volcanic productivity. None that I can see.
2/ H2S should be of volcanic composition and highly correlated with sources of volcanic eruption. Nope, it's organic and away from eruptive centers.
3/ The volcanoes need to be heating the water around them and so ARGO would show correlation between volcanoes and upwelling warm water. Nope. Actually its is worse, because the heat distribution at depth (very cold water) make no thermodynamic sense.
4/ The OHC content should match the heat from undersea volcanoes - not by a very long shot. This is a fatal blow frankly. It's orders of magnitude out.
You cant make an hypothesis stick if the maths doesnt work. There is no limit to the amount of nonsense hypotheses you can ignore the maths.
Compare this with the competing model for warming (increase in GHG) with agrees very well with the observations. Likewise the standard model of el nino. ENSO is an emergent property in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Basin size, THC configuration and wind regime would appear to be why it is in Pacific. The models also account for vertical profile observed in TOA and ARGO.
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bozzza at 14:15 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Please don't tell us you're a scientist!
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Peter Carson at 13:55 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
@29. bozzza
Why don't you just admit there is no difference?
(Wasn't it Einstein who said all things are relative?)
Oh! And I am a scientist. What are you doing here?
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bozzza at 13:38 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
Peter Carson @ 27, if you don't want to accept the truth then what are you doing on a science forum?
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Peter Carson at 13:29 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
@26 scanddenp.
As I sa
El Nino is definitely volcanic.
Evidence:
1. The sudden mass deaths of fish in the area at that time. Whatever is happening is caused locally.
The current EN theory says this is due to (maximum ca 5C) warmer water flowing into area from the west – then why there isn’t a trail of dead fish!? The EN area is usually cooler due to the Humboldt Current from Antarctica; it’s a stretch to say that temporary extra warmth would kill them.
There’s something in the water.
2. Seabirds are also killed. The warmer ocean obviously won’t adversely affect them, and with an abundance of fish waiting to be eaten, starvation won’t do it either.
There’s something in the water.
3. TheCallaoPainter. Fishing boats in the area during EN get “painted”. This is diagnostic for hydrogen sulphide, which “colour” the heavy-metal based paints.
The “something in the water” is therefore hydrogen sulphide (similar toxicity and action to cyanide). This can only occur, in this area remote from human influence, from undersea volcanic activity. Additionally, if one calculates how much sulphide is required to kill oceangoing fish, and assuming it constitutes ca 0.2% of lava mass, one gets about 10 to 20 cu. km (VEI of 6) in agreement with that calculated from the rate of divergence – as I suggested you do previously.
4. El Nino just happens to occur over perhaps the most volcanically active area on Earth.
El Nino is no orphan, tho’, and similar processes MUST occur at all divergent (particularly) boundaries. As I pointed out in my site’s “Cyclone Pam”, major cyclones initiate on tectonic boundaries. The divergent tectonic boundaries give a physical explanation to the various “Dipoles” which people have invented, that otherwise have none - other than statistical association.
[Yes, I know it’s not written very prettily, but I wanted it to get it out there while it’s fresh in people’s minds. I’ll clean it up…… eventually.]
id, I gave one example.
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Peter Carson at 13:21 PM on 15 April 2015Global warming hiatus explained and it's not good news
@25 bozzza
The difference being .....?
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