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Comments 31101 to 31150:

31101. Tom Curtis at 10:27 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       jgnfld @1 and @6, providing a link to a story that is in the news in the weekly digest hardly constitutes "going after" Willie Soon.  It is in the news, and it is relevant to the public debate on climate change.  Further, as it is going to be in the news, it is worthwhile discussing the issue to make sure we know which claims are justified, and which are not.  That includes defending Willie Soon from claims that are unjustified, but which have been made by some people.  For example, there is no evidence that Willie Soon stated opinions he did not hold in order to gain funding.  Rather, he sort and gained funding from people who liked the opinions he was known to hold.  In another example, a clause in the contract relating to his funding from Southern Company Services has been interpreted as allowing Southern to review and request ammendments to his research, wheras interpreted in context it allows Southern that right only with respect to publicity for Soon's research (ie, press releases and the like).

       Of course, the same process does find ethical issues with Soon's funding arrangements.  Directly, and most obviously is Soon's failure to disclose the source of his funding, even where explicitly required to do so by conditions of publication in journals.  Also of concern is his failure to deliver on the explicit research contracted for, but substituting general anti-AGW research and conference appearances as adequate substitutes - a substitution accepted as adequate by Southern.  While this does not suggest Soon was expressing opinions he did not hold, it does suggest that he and Southern understood the funding to be for opposition to AGW rather than for some specific piece of research.

       I entirely agree with you that these points should not be the main focus, or even a major focus in discussion of Willie Soon's work.  As purportedly scientific research, it stands and falls on the science - something more than adequately addressed at SkS as pointed out by the moderator.  That they are not a major focus, and not relevant to the validity of the research, however, in no way implies that it should not be discussed.

31102. Jim Hunt at 10:18 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Wili @24 - Probably it was me with the cough!

       Thanks should of course also go to Kevin Anderson, Peter Cox and Exeter Uni for permission to use the recording. I'm not aware of a potential transcript, though Kevin's slides are available. See the final paragraph at my link. Any volunteers here for producing a transcript? I'm a bit busy with Booker at present!
       
       There are rumours that a professional video of the seminar might be on the way, but if so I haven't seen it yet.

31103. wili at 09:58 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Jim Hunt: Cool! So was it you that had the cough?

       I just don't do hardly any long distant travel any more (except a few longish bikerides, and a hundred mile trip I'll take with my wife as a deal for her to go vegetarian). My daughter and I have gone vegan. I'm trying to figure out how I'm going to reduce my next 10% (at least) from my emissions. Perhaps work on tightening up the house further and arrange to do more gardening. I count activism toward this, but I've taken a temporary break after getting burned out/frustrated.

       I agree that this is the takeaway quote. I said something similar at various sites where I posted your video.

       Thanks for making that recording and for making it available. Did you say that there is a transcript coming?

31104. jgnfld at 07:47 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       Re. Moderator's Comment. I thoroughly agree. Do address his pseudoscience here and in the literature.
       
       What I disagree with is going after him for his funding sources. All this does is validate denier claims about how science works. Scientific publishing and communication must stay above that level as much as possible even though we all know corporate monies at the very least nibble around the edges of many big money fields all the time (can you say "big Pharma"?). I have worked at Memorial University for 3.5 decades which had a bit of a problem with a big money researcher publishing in the BMJ a while back as many may know. But the money was not the point, the science was.

       It simply is a mistake in my opinion to go after him for funding sources as pretty much every other comment has done. Go after the science.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Do you blieve it was a mistake for SkS to address "Climategate"?

31105. John Hartz at 06:54 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       From today's edition of the Climate Nexus broadcast email Hot News:

       Big Money for Denier Research: Wei-Hock "Willie" Soon, a scientist favored by climate deniers, received over $1.2 million from energy industry companies, lobby groups, and billionaires for his research 'deliverables,' new documents show. Soon pushes the widely-discredited theory that the sun is responsible for climate change, not greenhouse gas emissions. He appears to have violated the ethical guidelines of at least eight journals by his failure to disclose this conflict of interest. Soon, often described as a 'Harvard astrophysicist,' has a doctoral degree in aerospace engineering and is employed by the Smithsonian Institution at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. (News: New York Times $, Guardian, InsideClimate News, Science Magazine, Tech Times, Mic, ThinkProgress, The Verge, Boston Globe $. Commentary: Mother Jones, Kevin Drum column, Discover Magazine, Tom Yulsman column)

31106. michael sweet at 06:32 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       I am sorry, the organization that funds hidden donations is called Donors Trust, not Donors choose.

31107. Jim Hunt at 06:00 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Wili @6 - Since it was my surf camera that recorded the video you link to, my thanks for posting it here! Perhaps I might elucidate the question you pose to us all by quoting my own main takeaway from Kevin Anderson's recent seminar:

       We can't do [2°C] with low carbon supply. We can't make the changes quick enough. You have to do something with our demand for energy, and that is very, very unpopular amongst all of us, all of our colleagues, all the policy makers, so basically the whole world, all the high emitting parts of the world, which is only a small proportion, none of us like this at all, and that's why we don't really like the science.

       By way of example, Prof. Anderson does in actual fact practice what he preaches. He has recently arrived in Iceland following a 3 day sea journay through force 11 winds!

       
       https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/569848672529342464
       
       How many of the other attendees at the "Earth 101" conference in Reykyavik do you suppose can say the same?

31108. michael sweet at 05:13 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       It is concerning that the supporters of Willie Soon have recently chosen to pay him off through Donors Choose.  That is an organization that is designed to make it impossible for people to determine who is influencing the people they finance.  If all of Soon's money had come from Donor's Choose it would be difficult to show that they were in charge.

       Hopefully as these issues get more vetting in the press rules will be passed to make Donor's Choose and their like release who is financing them.  I for one am not holding my breath waiting for that change.

31109. One Planet Only Forever at 01:31 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       The comments on the NY Times article include some hints of how the people who create and try to prolong any success of deception or misrepresentation of what is going on (including "Climategate"), will respond to this.

       There are posts indicating that the focus should be on the impressions of scientific merit of the creations of the likes of Soon, not the actual validity of it just the public perceptions of it, and there should be no consideration of the potential motivations of the likes of Soon or awareness of the connections between the participants in the creation and dissmination of information like Soon's.

       And that type of irrational defense will work in the minds of people who have personal interests that motivate them to uniquely filter each piece of information to maintain their preferred beliefs by establishing perceptions of validity. And such a person would make no connections between contradictory beliefs they hold or the irrationality of such beliefs if better understanding things would challenge their preferred beliefs and interests.

       I have my doubts that Willie Soon (and the people who fund his creation of reports, and the powerful people who refer to and rely on his creations), have duped themselves about what they are doing. I believe it is likely they are well aware of the unacceptability of what they are doing. And I believe that all parts of the chain from the "funding fathers of the creations like the Kochs" through to the "Loudspeakers like Inhofe and Fox News pontificating and disemminating the creations " are connected and aware of the full chain of unacceptable pursuers they are a part of.

       Hopefully the exposure of this case of attempted cover-up and deception will lead some of those who were easily impressed by past actions of the participants in this group to question the validity of what they had previously allowed themselves to believe about this group. However, anyone who still holds perceptions of validity related to "Climategate" cannot be expected to change their mind.

31110. Stephen Baines at 01:29 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       So Tom, 

       What you are saying is that Soon knew what Southern wanted in spirit, research that supported a certain position. The evidence for this is that, when he couldn't give them something that directly matched what he was contracted to do, he put forward some items that he knew would suffice because they challenged the IPCC consensus in some way.  He broke journal COI rules in the process, under some self-delusional or explicitly nefarious guise of objectivity.

       Hmmm.  I agree that passes the smell test...in that it stinks.  Every funding agency I know would mark that as unethical at the least and outright misconduct at the worst.  I'm still not sure his opinion is for sale, in that he once had an opinion and changed it opportunistically to become rich. But that is neither here nor there considering your analysis.

       To find a silver lining...What I find heartening in the whole debacle is how few scientists have betrayed their rationality given how easy it would be to get money with few strings attached.  When people say money corrupts, I hold up the consensus on climate change as an indication otherwise.

31111. jgnfld at 01:22 AM on 24 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly Digest #8
       

       Going after Willie for funding is a mistake that I wish this site would not commit. It plays right into the hands of deniers who claim that ALL scientists are just saying what the funders want to hear.

       I have no problem with journals withdrawing his articles because he broke the contracts which require disclosure.

       Most important though, is to use the scientific method, that is to stick to his science as published and show how it is wrong and to make sure the peer review process is clean. Both can be done and that really is the way to go.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] If you insert "Willie Soon" into the SkS search box, you will find that the SkS author team has already thoroughly debunked Soon's published pseudo-science.

31112. Stephen Baines at 17:25 PM on 23 February 2015
       Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
       

       rjs

       You are making this too complicated.  Human metabolism can only be a net source of  CO₂ if human biomass decreases.  Its conservation of mass.

       But of course human biomass is actually increasing, so if anything human tissues are a net sink of CO₂ from the atmosphere - i.e. we are taking CO₂ up from the atmosphere into our bodies on the whole.

       Also, the amount of biomass in human tissues is miniscule (<0.1Gt C by my calcs) compared to that in trees and soil anyway (2000-3000 Gt C) or in the atmosphere (~800 Gt C), so any change in human biomass has little effect on the atmospheric CO₂.

31113. Tom Curtis at 17:15 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Further on Willie Soon, in his report to Southern, says:

       "The goals of this research project have been completely and successfully executed with the following list of deliverables:"

       Among the "deliverables" listed are:

       1) Temporal derivative of Total Solar Irradiance and anomalous Indian summer
       monsoon: An empirical evidence for a Sun–climate connection, which does not acknowledge the funding by Southern, despite the journal requiring that:

       "All authors are requested to disclose any actual or potential conflict of interest including any financial, personal or other relationships with other people or organizations within three years of beginning the submitted work that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, their work. See also http://www.elsevier.com/conflictsofinterest."

       Variation in surface air temperature of China during the 20th century, but I cannot determine from the abstract if the conflict of interest was acknowledged.

       2) Research to date on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm, a report prepared as evidence for testimony to Congress by its principle author (not Soon).  The conflict of interest is not acknowledged.  More importantly IMO, the report contains no reference to "sun", "solar", "tsi", or any term related to solar forcing.  The overt purpose of the funding from Southern was to publish two papers, one on solar influence on temperatures in the United States, and one on solar influences on temperature in China (from the ammendment to the agreement).  The second article under point (1) satisfies the ammended agreement, but the article on the US was never published.  (In his report on that phase of the agreement, he does mention papers on Polar bear populations as "deliverables" that "completely and successfully execute" the agreement.)

       The complete absense of reference to solar forcing, however, shows that the "Research" report was not even tangentially connected to the overt purpose for funding.  It is, however, directly connected to providing a smokescreen for fossil fuel interests.  Apparently Soon understood that that was what Southern was interested in, and was prepared to provide it.  The closer look at the documents means I have changed my mind.  These documents are prima facie evidence that Soon sort funding, and recieved funding not for research, but to provide a voice opposing AGW.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Thank you for digging into this matter further and for letting the evidence determine your position. 

31114. rjs at 16:35 PM on 23 February 2015
       Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
       

       I wonder if the treatment of human respiration here has ignored a couple of points. Two things to think about:

       1) Our collective breathing is a year-round phenomenon that is localized to inhabitted areas, whereas plant conversion of CO2 from the atmosphere to organic matter is seasonal and localized to less densly inhabited areas; the locales and anual timing of our breathing are different to the locales and seasonal resperation of growing plants. So that could mean an uneven distribution of atmospheric CO2, even if it is relatively transient due to weather patterns.   Is the warming effect of such transient areas of higher CO2 concentration more signficant than the assumed warming effect of plantery average CO2 concentration?

       2) Imagine a sealed, underinflated balloon containing water and air. If we heat the ballon up, the same amount of water still exists within it, but now more of the water is in the form of water vapour, not liquid water. There is still a steady state exchange of water vapour to liquid water and back, but more of that water is in vapour form when it is heated up compared to the oringinal underinflated balloon. Similarly, as breathing organisms, we have increased the volume of atmospheric CO2 because there are more of us breathing now than 200 years ago. If 5 or 6 billion of us stopped breathing permanently, then yes, plants would relatively quickly collect the atmospheric CO2 and return it to the soil as humus or store it in woody material. But as long as we keep breathing, we are like the heated balloon - more C is in gaseous form (CO2), and less is stored as organic matter.  And it may not be correct to state that our bodies compensate by sequestering CO2 in our own organic flesh and blood because we ourselves are not static - we grow and then we die, so in addition to the billions of us living, there are also billions of us decomposing, and as cemetary availability decreases, we will increasingly shoose cremation which releases our stored carbon instantaneously.

       So overall, I think the question of whether our breathing contributes to GW is still open.  I'm more inclined to think that it does contribute directly, and that contribution is not insignificant, yet other factors such as lifestyle are greater contributors.  

       Perhaps someone can do some numbers just for fun.  Assume: 1) all the current atmospheric CO2 due to human breathing can be approximated by five years of human exhalation - this is based on the arbitrary idea that over 5 years, global plant communities could convert our hot air to organic matter; and 2) all that human-respiration CO2 captured by plants would be held indefinitely out of the atmosphere due to the undisturbed process of plant growth and soil growth that would take place if we all stopped breathing.  With these assumptions, how much atmospheric CO2 do 7 billion humans generate over a period of 5 years, and how does that amount compare to the current total atmospheric CO2 quantity?

       Note: just a quick point on food production techniques. Soil degradation and subsurface compaction result in less organic matter (humus) in the soil, thus C that was previously stored in the soil has been and continues to be released as a consquence of our agricultural methods.

31115. Stephen Baines at 15:27 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       I will say that I am appalled that the Smithsonian has Soon on their books.   It's a big ungainly place, for sure, but that august insitution should have standards.  (I was going to say higher standards, but Soon's arguments don't credit that much. ) The idea that thoe standards may be for sale is sickening to me.

31116. Stephen Baines at 15:24 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       I agree with TC on this.  There is not enough information to prove that Willie Soon is selling his science to fossil fuel companies, as opposed to the fossil fuel companies seeking out someone of the "right" opinion.  He may have strongly held beliefs that align with the fossil fuel industry for a number of reasons — he really likes the sun, he really hates the CO2 crowd, he is politically motivated, he thinks his garden will grow better.

       It also doesn't really help to simply discredit his science simply because it is associated with the FF industry, because that makes it OK (in the minds of the antigovernment black helicopter brigade) to discredit mainstream climate because it is funded by agencies trying to justify their own existence.  Arguments by association are only convincing to those already aligned on either side, and will generally do little to convince those on the fence.

       What we should note is that Soon is just flat out wrong on the science of climate change. There really is no other way to put it, and there is no way to look at the data without realizing it.  The money he receives completely distorts the process of science, keeping alive his groundless ideas in the public sphere like a voodoo doctor animates zombies.  Plus, he is dissembling, breaking conflict of interest disclosure rules common to journals.  That is the truly destructive thing at the core of this debacle.

31117. John Hartz at 14:33 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Another take on the recent revelations about Willie Soon...

       Willie Soon, a prominent global warming skeptic, says “no amount of money can influence what I say or do or research or write.” If recently released documents are accurate, he is a liar.

       Contrarian Scientist Who Says Sun is Responsible for Global Warming is Accused of Taking Corporate Cash for Science by Tom Yulsman, Discovery, Feb 21, 2015

31118. wili at 14:14 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Full disclosure: I am not, nor have I ever been, nor am I soon to be, Willie Soon. (Just plain old wili.) '-)

31119. jja at 13:46 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Tom,

       thanks, at this point I am highly skeptical of the integrity of Harvard-Smithsonian and Dr. Soon.  If they want any maintain any sustained credibility they should release all communication between Dr. Soon and SCS and Exxon over the last 8 years.  If his final report is only produced as a deliverable to the company for a "courtesy" then that is fine, however previous year's asked for mid-term reports (2008)  So I think that the possiblity is there for client intrusion into the process.  After, Dr. Soon is not contractually obligated to maintain a firewall between his work and his client's wishes.

31120. Tom Curtis at 12:34 PM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       jja @13, you say the contract "...stipulated Dr. Soon provide a pre-published copy of his paper to Southern (his client) for "review and input"".  That clause relates to "publicity", and it is not evident that it applies to the scientific papers coming from the research.  It would be interesting, I suppose, to have FOI documents relating to that point.  That is, it is reasonable to ask, but not to prejudge, whether or not Willi Soon provided draft copies of his papers to Southern prior to submission, and whether he amended those papers prior to submission at Southern's request.  Absent specific evidence to that point, however, we must assume that the clause relates to publicity (ie press releases, and talks given by Willi Soon) rather than the peer reviewed research itself.

       Further, it is not justified on this evidence to assume that Soon had his opinion up for sale.  More likely, he had an opinion and found cash from a person who wanted that opinion propogated.  That in itself is an issue.  If funding for science is on a model where expected outcomes of research are the basis of receiving funding, that is likely to bias science by, first, providing a financial motive making it difficult for the scientist to accept results contrary to expectation; and second, by preferentially funding scientists of a particular opinion.

31121. jimlj at 10:31 AM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       M Sweet @11

       It's not even necessary for Soon to be disciplined.  Breitbart already has a headline, 'NYT SMEARS SCIENTIST WILLIE SOON FOR TELLING THE TRUTH ABOUT ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ .  In Denialistan, smear=telling the truth about a 'no global warming' 'expert', while fair comment=lying about a climate scientist.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] The Breitbart article has gone viral in the right wing-nut blogosphere. 

31122. jja at 09:21 AM on 23 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       Kevin C,
       
       Those are the annual averages, do you have the DJF extractions that you can post?  Both 2013 and 2014 summers were below the average.

31123. jja at 09:17 AM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Regarding the Soon controversy, I find it a bit incredulous that the Smithsonian PR rep stated that there would not be an investigation into the clause of the contracts that stipulated Dr. Soon provide a pre-published copy of his paper to Southern (his client) for "review and input", since his client did not have the contractual ability to force a change or block publication.  This is a falsehood on its face and reeks of coverup. 
       
       Since Dr. Soon has an ongoing financial stake in maintaining his client's satisfaction with his work, as any consultant does, the only purpose of providing a pre-published copy is to allow editiorial capacity to fit the economic and political interests of his client.
       
       There is likely a significant amount of exchange and back and forth with Soon's employers regarding the wording of his scientific papers.  There may even be back and forth regarding the performance of the base research and even material or financial support for even that level of work.
       
       To not provide, or even investigate these email exchanges shows an incredible amount of complicity to the pseudoscience that is, apparently, the norm at the Harvard-Smithsonian.

31124. wili at 05:59 AM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       JH asked: "To whom is your question addressed?"
       wili replies: To all of us.

31125. michael sweet at 02:18 AM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Tom,

       I doubt that Soon's supervisors look beyond the amount of the check.  The system functions on trust.  In order for someone to get called out for not claiming conflict of interest an outside group, as in this case, generally must take action.  It is entirely possible that Soon's supervisors have not even read his papers, much less looked at the fine print to see his conflict of interests.

       The question is what happens now that it has been brought to their attention.  It is likely to be a slow response, no matter what the final judgement.  It will also be interesting to see what the journals do.

       If Soon is disciplined you can be sure that the Deniers will claim it is payback for his opinions and not for his leaving off his conflict of interests.

31126. John Hartz at 01:25 AM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Shedding more light on the Soon-Smithsonian-fossil fuel industry relationship...

       David H. Koch's deep philanthropic pockets will benefit dinosaurs.

       The executive vice president of Koch Industries has donated $35 million to the National Museum of Natural History, the Smithsonian Institution announced Thursday.

       The gift will go to the 30-year-old dinosaur hall, which museum officials say has long been in need of renovations.

       Koch, a member of the museum’s advisory board, previously gave $15 million to the museum’s David H. Koch Hall of Human Origins. Thursday's gift marks the largest single donation to the Natural History Museum — perhaps because fossils have long piqued Koch's interests.

       “It goes way back,” Koch told the Washington Post. “I went to my first dinosaur hall with my father and twin brother. We went to the American Museum of Natural History, and I was blown away by the dinosaurs.”

       Billionaire David Koch gives $35 million to Natural History Museum by Jamie Wetherbe, Los Angeles Times, May 4, 2012

31127. John Hartz at 01:13 AM on 23 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       More details about Soon's employer...

       The documents reviewed by Markey’s staff were obtained by Greenpeace, the environmental group, through the Freedom of Information Act. They show a relationship between Dr. Willie Soon, a solar researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and several fossil fuel companies who’ve funded his research on climate change. The Cambridge-based center is a joint project of Harvard University and the Smithsonian Institution, though Soon is employed by the Smithsonian side. The center has previously said that Soon’s views are his alone and not reflective of the institution.

       Senator Markey questions climate studies by Sylvan Lane, Boston Globe, Feb 22, 2015

31128. michael sweet at 22:49 PM on 22 February 2015
       It's not bad
       

       Hoges,

       When you are stuck in the bottom of a hole the first rule is always to Stop Digging.  There is nothing we can do about pollution already released.  If we reduce what we currently produce the final temperature will be lower than if we dig up as much carbon as possible.  The stronger the steps we take now, the smaller the final problem we will have to deal with.  Scieentists believe that if we stop polluting now the problem will not be too bad, we have to work on the presumption that they are correct.

31129. Tom Curtis at 22:28 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       chriskoz @7, in an Australian context, I would be astonished if the contract were between the researcher and the funder rather than between the researcher's institution and the funder.  The former arrangement would leave to much opportunity for dubious practises, and for funding for outcomes rather than quality of research - ie, of buying an convenient scientific opinion.  As it happens, at least one of the contracts was with the Smithonian.  Specifically, the sole document of those obtained by Greenpeace that was by the Times shows a contract between Southern Company Services and the Smithonian, initially signed for the Smithonian by William J Ford (p 19), with an ammendment signed for the Smithonian by Brian Baldwin (p 21).  The contract is explicitly for "... 4 months of [Wili Soon's] salary and benefits, as well as minor costs for salary and benefits for administrative and clerical work specific to this research effort" (p 27).  The costs are itemized on page 28, and show over $37,000 of the initial $60,000 grant, and presumably an equivalent amount of the $60,000 additional grant signed for in the ammendment.  (Presumably Willie Soon benefited at similar rates for the entire $1.2 million contracted from all sources revealed by the FOI request, or by approx $750,000 over a decade from contracts that more or less tell the results that will be obtained before the putative research is conducted, and which lists talks at the Marshall Institute among its "deliverables".

       The upshot is that the Smithonian certainly new about the sources of the funding, presumably read Soon's papers and should have noted failure to list funders as ethically required, yet took no disciplinary actionk, action to get Soon to list his funding sources publicly until it became a news story.  That represents a serious failing of governance by the Smithonian.

31130. Hoges at 20:44 PM on 22 February 2015
       It's not bad
       

       What if a reduction in CO2 emissions doesn't prevent further global warming?

31131. chriskoz at 20:14 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Tom@3,

       Indeed, Willi Soon was the main contrarian author involved in a famous "pal review" scandal at Climate Research between 1997 and 2003 that led to the resignation of five of the journal's editors, including editor-in-chief Hans von Storch.

       It's strange that after such affair, Smithsonian apparently did not look at Soon's connections but let him publish. The only explanation is they did not know what was going on behind "pal review", or they did not want to know, assuming what happened in Climate Research is irrelevant to Soon's reputation as an author - a generous assumption.

       As for your bold speculation that Soon received money rather indirectly through the Smithsonian, wouldn't the FOI request by Greenpeace have revealed that detail?

31132. Kevin C at 18:25 PM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       To get back to the subject, I've now added a time series and map series for the Gleisner et al temperature reconstruction, as well as code for you to produce it for yourself. It's at the bottom of this page, accompanied by appropriate health warnings:

       http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html

       The Gleisner reconstruction shows faster warming over the hiatus period than NASA, NOAA or Hadley, and the rate of Arctic warming agrees well with us, Berkeley and the reanalyses:

       

       So it captures the Arctic warming quite well. The poor performance in validation arises because it is not doing a very good job of capturing the impact of coverage over the rest of the planet.

31133. wili at 18:23 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       Not exactly news, but there's a new video of a Kevin Anderson lecture at Exeter U on how to have a 50% chance of staying below 2 C: 40% emissions reductions by 2018 from the global wealthy, 70% by 2024, over 90% by 2030. (These numbers are at about minute 28.)

       "Delivering on 2 C"

       If you make much more than about $30,000 a year, you are the global wealthy.

       What is your plan?

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] To whom is your question addressed?

31134. uncletimrob at 17:27 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       @ "fox news has no shame"  Interesting read  but relly no surprise.  Owner - Murdoch, enough said.

31135. One Planet Only Forever at 16:14 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       John Hartz,

       I understand that the NY Times article was only posted after you posted your summary. I just thought it was a good one to add to this thread.

       Tom Curtis,

       I am sure that full disclosure would expose a collective incestuous corruption of "certain", not all: elected officials, leaders of industry, global financial leaders, creators of misleading or deceptive reports, employers of the creators of such reports, and media that amplify such reports. That full disclosure is unlikely to happen because that group are collectively well aware of how damaging full public awareness would be to "their interests". Hopefully, the growing number of cases of "seems to have happened" will be enough to change the minds of many people who have been giving that group of trouble-makers the benefit of the doubt they do not deserve.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] No problem. Today's Weekly Digest will contain a Breaking News section on this matter. 

31136. Tom Curtis at 13:24 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       OPOF @2, very interesting, but for me it raises a question.  The Smithsonian acknowledges that an ethical breach has occurred, with Willi Soon not disclosing the sources of his funding for published papers, as required by the journals in which he published.  They are talking about behind closed doors disciplinary action.  Surely, however, they have a record of Willi Soon's publication history, and of his funding history.  They, therefore, should have been aware of the situation already and taken disciplinary action already before it became a public embarassment for them.  The only way they could not have that record is if the money was paid directly to Soon himself, rather indirectly through the Smithsonian.  Is that the case?  If so, that represents a situation open to obvious abuse  - as seems to have happened.

31137. One Planet Only Forever at 12:43 PM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       In the NY Times today is another good one:

       "Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Researcher"

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] The article you cite and others like it were posted after I had frinalized the OP.

31138. Timothy Chase at 10:06 AM on 22 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #8B
       

       The hyperlink "Global warming is going to hammer New York: New study reveals a future of heat waves, downpours, rising seas" returns a 404 Not Found.

       I believe the hyperlinks should be going to:

       Global warming is going to hammer New York: New study reveals a future of heat waves, downpours, rising seas
       A new report calls for urgent action to boost New York's resiliency
       Lindsay Abrams, Salon, 2015-02-17
       
       

       LINK

       Also, the ad for Free Course/April 2015/Making sense of climate science denial" ends with the line "ENROL NOW!" I believe that should be "enroll".

       Moderator Response:

       [TD] Apparently there is some sort of world outside the USA.  I don't really know, because I've always lived in the USA.  Anyhoo, the rumor (not "rumour," damnit) is going 'round that in that hypothetical non-USA geography the word often is spelled "enrol" because, well, Eddie Izzard explained it.

        [JH] Links fixed. Thanks for bringing this glitch to our attention.

       [RH] Shortened link.

31139. Midmiocene at 09:46 AM on 22 February 2015
       Why the Miocene Matters (and doesn’t) Today
       

       The author mentions: "but generally life did well from the experience - including re-greening of some arid areas, and species diversification in marine mammals, mollusks, and rodents."

       Actually, pretty much everything flourished (I wrote a novel about it). The Clarendonian Chronofauna was a Midmiocene originated event. See https://midmiocene.wordpress.com/the-middle-miocene-a-time-for-diversity/

       Lest we are lulled into a dangerous sense of complacency, though, howardlee does a good job of showing why we can't think that anything like the MMCO would be good for biodiversity today. In every other way, today's earth is a different world. Just the opposite. And I think I'll quote his comments about that on my blog, if that's okay.

31140. wili at 07:01 AM on 22 February 2015
       LBJ's climate warning 50 years ago - do we have your attention yet?
       

       Speaking of presidents and climate, CC has a nice interactive chart on that theme here.

31141. Tom Curtis at 05:20 AM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       PS inline @25, I take it you objected to my quotation of a term from the video to which I linked.  If you watch the video (unfortunately of poor quality), you will see that term in context is not offensive, and explains the problem also exhibited by drebich's three questions in very simple terms.  I could, of course, have used the more conventional term for that type of question, calling it a "trick question".  That, however, would imply that trickery was involved - something of which I am not yet convinced.  As a side note, I highly recommend you take the opportunity to watch the movie from which the video came ("My cousin Vinny") should it present itself.  Very entertaining.

       On a side note, and related to to drebich's questions, I suggest he read David Brin's essay, "Defining Climate "Deniers" and "Skeptics"", available on his blog.  I remain hopefull that he is an ill-informed skeptic.  Reading Brin's essay will make it clear to him why he is so easilly taken for a denier instead.

31142. Tom Curtis at 05:08 AM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       wili @31, good comment.

       On topic: yes but not relatively.

       Specifically, the first factor is that the September loss is a seasonal loss.  All the energy used in the ice melt is given back when the ice refreezes.  Therefore the relevant factor is the loss in ice at the winter maximum.  Based on the Piomas trend, that means we have lost around 9.72 thousand km^3 in the 36 years from 1979 (or 10,000 km^3 if you just take the difference between the end points).  Further, this has been partly countered by the growth in sea ice in the Antarctic, although no direct comparison is possible as we lack reliable volume estimates for the Antarctic.

       Secondly, taking just the Arctic values, the approx 10 trillion cubic meters of ice lost requires 334 x 10^15 Joules to melt, which is a lot.  However, over 36 years, that represents only 3 x 10^8 Watts, and just 5.9*10^-7 Watts per meter squared averaged over the Earth's surface.  Relative to other places the heat is going, that is inconsequential.  The melting of glaciers and ice sheets has a far larger impact, but still small relative to the increase in Ocean Heat Content.

31143. wili at 04:33 AM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       RH wrote: "Climate science is a very complex subject..." Very true if one is talking about the whole thing with all the details. But the essential elements are fairly straight forward (though I'd be more than happy to be corrected on any of them if I get something wrong):

       1) CO2 is a greenhouse gas--it acts as a kind of blanket keeping heat from escaping into space; established some 150 years ago; very basic science.

       2) We have dumped and we continue to dump lots of extra CO2 into the atmosphere, mostly from burning fossil fuels--coal, oil and methane. (Are we up to 38 billion tons CO2 a year now?)

       3) Not surprisingly, given #2, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have risen by about 40% since pre-industrial times: from about 280 parts per million to about 400 ppm now--we are making the
       'blanket' much thicker.

       4) Also not surprising, given #s 1,2 and 3, global temperatures have increased by over .8 degrees C (about 1.5 F).

       Those are the basics. And every step is (or should be) completely un-controversial and well established. Everything else is complications that those who don't understand the science should trust that scientists actually do know something about them. And they have pretty much all come to the same conclusion.

       I think the mods got it right that 'Daniel' was trolling here, so he is not likely to be persuaded by anything anyone says. I don't know how one persuades people who are not really interested in being persuaded. But I think it is useful to lay out the bare essentials of the situation (as others also tried to do), since those are fairly straight forward.

       But getting back to the Arctic and the 'pause'--We've lost something over 10,000 cubic kilometers of Arctic sea ice, most of it in the last 20 years. Wouldn't that change of state suck a lot of energy out of the system?

31144. Rob Honeycutt at 02:56 AM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       Daniel...  And really, do watch the Richard Alley video I posted earlier. You'll get a sense of both how complex the subject is and why scientists understand what they understand.

31145. Rob Honeycutt at 02:51 AM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       Daniel...  I have no way to determine your intent with these questions, but if you're going to come here with genuine questions about climate science, you can't take a stance of "scientist have to..." 

       There's a well understood aspect of science: It's true whether or not anyone likes the results. 

       Tom and Michael actually did a very good job of explaining the science, regardless of whether you appreciated their tone. They showed you very clearly what the research shows us. It's not required that you understand it, nor even that you read it, for it to be correct. 

       The reason I suggested that you go back and read some of the basic materials here on SkS is because you're asking very very elemental and antagonistic questions. You need to fully inform yourself first, before you have cause to state what scientists need to do.

       Climate science is a very complex subject backed by 150 years of research consisting of well over 100,000 research papers, produced by over 30,000 scientists. When you come upon some aspect of the science you don't understand, look it up. Find out why scientists are saying what they're saying. And if you still don't understand, ask questions. SkS is a great place to find answers. But you don't even have to trust us. If you still don't understand something, see if you can find one of the actual climate researchers. Send them a polite email with your question. I've found they're usually eager to explain their field of research with those who are willing to listen.

31146. DSL at 01:41 AM on 22 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       Daniel, just read one thing--one little piece: paleoclimatology.  Understand that many of the same people who are supporting your claim of 4.5 billion years are also people working on climate.  The information they produce is integrated into the overall understanding of Earth's climate.  It seems ridiculous that you would assume 4.5 billion years and then claim that paleoclimatology has not informed study of the present day climate.  It seems that way because to everyone posting here it is obvious that paleoclimatology is an integral part of the study of climate.
       
       Also, if you want the science communicated to the general public more effectively (I assume you do, else why come here?), could you say a bit more about how you came to your current understanding of the study of climate, please?

31147. michael sweet at 22:53 PM on 21 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       Daniel,

       I simply pointed out the inconsistancy in your questions.  If you find that  rude, condescending, and insulting perhaps you need to ask better questions.  When your posts are rude, condescending, and insulting people tend to reply in the same way.  If you are polite you get polite answers.

       For complete information to everyone reading, Daniels original post was deleted by a moderator for sloganeering.  He reposted it and the new moderator has let it stand.  If your posts are deleted that means you are not polite enough for this venue.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] I deleted Daniel's (posting as drebich) intital post because it was "off-topic sloganeering." If I had seen his repost of it before other commenters had responded to it, I would have deleted it again for the same reason. Concern trolls such as Daniel/drebich need to know that conformance with the SkS Comments Policy is not optional. 

31148. Kevin C at 19:35 PM on 21 February 2015
       Missing Arctic warming does contribute to the hiatus, but it is only one piece in the puzzle.
       

       Dear Daniel,

       Let me try and explain the response to your question.

       When my daughter was 3, she found an illustration of Isaac Newton sitting under and apple tree. "What's he doing?" she asked.

       I replied "He's sitting under an apple tree. An apple has just fallen on his head. He says 'Why did that happen?'".

       My daughter immediately answered "Because it was ready to eat!".

       In a sense, she was right. The apple fell because it was ready to eat. But at the same time, she had completely missed the scientific point of the question. Why did the apple accelerate downwards at approximately 10m/s²?

       When we try to talk about science in natural language, or worse, to think about science in social and ethical terms, we completely miss the point. And trying to do science in these terms leads to nonsense conclusions - a classic example would be the work of Gerald of Wales.

       Similarly, when you ask 'what should the temperature be?', your language is a strange conflation of scientific and ethical concepts. Temperature is completely uninfluenced by moral imperatives. There is no 'should'. The fact that you can construct a grammatically valid question, does not mean that that question makes any sense.

       So when you ask a scientist a question like this, they'll either look at you as though you have a fish in your ear, or assume you are trying to ask a different question, or assume you are playing dishonest word games. Unfortunately in this case there used to be a particularly annoying troll who used to ask the same kind question on every single climate discussion for several years, hence a more negative response than you were expecting.

       So what question are you trying to ask? If I were to make a guess, then I'd put it something like this:

       • What is our best understanding of the factors that control the temperature of the earth?
       • What is the evidence for that understanding? How confident are we with respect to various influences?
       • On the basis of that understanding, what do we expect to happen in future, given a particular action on our part?
       • How will this affect us? Future generations?
       • What should we do about it?

       The first three of these are scientific questions. The fourth spans scientific, social and economic spheres. The final is a moral and political question. This website is concerned primarily with the scientific dimension.

31149. Jim Hunt at 18:53 PM on 21 February 2015
       A melting Arctic and weird weather: the plot thickens
       

       In surprising news, there was another huge calving of the Jakobshavn glacier in West Greenland, of "Chasing Ice" fame, earlier this week:

       Shock News – Massive Calving of Jakobshavn Isbræ
       
       Although this is no longer the case today, the recent storms in the North Atlantic reduced Arctic sea ice extent to an all time record low for the date earlier this week:

       Shock News – IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Extent Lowest Ever!

       Is there a feedback loop here? Less sea ice => more open water => bigger storms => more wind and waves => less sea ice?

31150. shoyemore at 18:31 PM on 21 February 2015
       A melting Arctic and weird weather: the plot thickens
       

       arctic-outbreak-shatters-records-in-eastern-u-s-coldest-yet-to-come/

       

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