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Comments 31751 to 31800:

31751. jenna at 01:09 AM on 2 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5C
       

       Really enjoyed Dave Robert's article, and also Revkin's support of Dave's views on this. I was sad to see Joe Romm attacking their pragmatic approach :(  We need some serious planning to actually move forward on this issue, as opposed to Romm's 'Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead' attitude. We also need to present a unified front on Climate issues in general, this kind of infighting is well noted (and laughed at) by the 'opposition', if you get my meaning.

       Jen.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Thank you for the positive feedback. 

31752. Glenn Tamblyn at 17:22 PM on 1 February 2015
       The Most Terrifying Papers I Read Last Year
       

       Chris G

       From the paper "in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability". Yikes!!!

       jja

       "The food insecurity issue is not as significant as the related political unrest...."

       Not yet, Perhaps say it is currently a 'fear of food insecurity' issue at present. But a few decades from now actual food insecurity may come to dominate. Then all bets are off, the world starts to go ape!

        

31753. denisaf at 13:04 PM on 1 February 2015
       Water is far more valuable and useful than oil
       

       Water recycles naturally, oil does not. Water is very valuable and will remain very valuable in the difficult times ahead. Oil temporarily plays a major role in the operation of technological systems. The artcle is comparing apples to oranges so spoils the valuable message on water.

31754. DSL at 11:51 AM on 1 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5B
       

       I'm not sure what your point is, JWRebel.  Is it simply that you object to the theory being called a fact?  Or is it that you don't think that the theory has been amply demonstrated in, for example, direct surface-based measurements of the greenhouse effect, e.g. Puckrin et al. 2004 — amply demonstrated to the extent that A) no one--even a very large percentage of "skeptics"--thinks more evidence is required, and B) a number of successful products rely on the existence of the effect to operate correctly?

       If the first, yah, ok.  Absolute language.  Probably a bad idea where science is concerned.  Even what you describe as "facts" aren't really absolutely and universally known.  The general public (that part that doesn't really get science), of course, wants absolute certainty.  So how should the science be communicated?  With uncertainty--ala the IPCC--or representative of the level of certainty that has become actionable in the minds of those who do understand the science (in other words, "we're certain enough that we demand action"?  

31755. JWRebel at 10:07 AM on 1 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5B
       

       You're kind of missing my point: Euclid's theorem is not less true or certain because it is called a theorem. It is a different kind of a thing than a fact. Climate change is not a theory because of some degree of uncertainty, but because you cannot discover anthropogenic global warming somewhere except in a book or human discourse. A single fact is rarely very remarkable outside the context of a theory that it supports or falsifies. A theory is a whole more than a fact. A theory can even be very convincing despite uncertainties about many of the facts involved, as if often true of court cases. Scientific theories are often about relationships of cause and effect. Sometimes it can take a long time and a lot of ingenuity before you discover cause and effect, even if all the facts are already present at hand. You cannot state: here we have a weight, there we have a number of sightings, here are some temperatures, there some distances, oh, and then we tripped over a bunch of causes while crossing the gully.

31756. Daniel Bailey at 08:14 AM on 1 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5B
       

       "Climate change is not a fact but a theory"

       Anthropogenic climate change (ACC)/anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a robust theory, referred to as "settled fact" by scientists.

       Per the National Academies of Science, science advisors to Congress and the Office of the Presidency since Lincoln, in their 2010 publication Advancing The Science Of Climate Change (p. 22):

       "Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small.

       Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts.

       This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities."

       And note that the above National Academies paper is available for free download after a free registration. No purchase necessary. And the quote is from page 22.

31757. JWRebel at 05:23 AM on 1 February 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5B
       

       New science standards require students be taught climate change as a scientific fact.

       Climate change is not a fact but a theory. Facts pertain to measurements of temperature or green house gas fractions, etc. Climate change cannot be discovered as a fact in nature, but is an explanation of many facts and ties them together. Facts without explanation and theory are pretty random and boring. It's not that I'm unconvinced. I fully expect climate change to be humankind's major challenge in a future which is likely to be nearer than most think. It's a matter of terminology. You have data, facts, hypotheses, theories, and laws. Data itself means nothing (thermometer readings), they have to be combined with context and some interpretation (was it night or day? what kind of thermometer?) before they emerge as facts. Hypotheses construct a possible working explanation (a "story") about causes and effects that tie facts together. Theories are hypotheses that have passed a lot of tests and discussion and have proved convincing. Even in mathematics we talk about Euclid's theorem, not because it is not true (theorems have to be proven), but we still do not refer to it as a fact. Theories are about relationships, and even if they are true, positing and formulating relationships require thought and cannot be discovered solely from experience or observation.

31758. One Planet Only Forever at 02:15 AM on 1 February 2015
       Water is far more valuable and useful than oil
       

       In addition to regional shortages of water, contamination of water is also happening on a massive scale, including contamination by plastic waste.

       Burning buried hydrocarbons, or turning them or anything else into plastics, are clearly not sustainable activities, except in the minds of people whowant to claim that prolonging the ability to benefit from those actions is 'sustaining something' and can therefore be called sustainable action.

       Many fossil fuel industry related companies have created departments for 'Sustainability'. And those groups promote all the ways they 'improve their activity' without ever admitting it ultimately cannot be sustained.

31759. Jim Eager at 01:03 AM on 1 February 2015
       Water is far more valuable and useful than oil
       

       They found it out in Akkad, Angkor, and Canyon de Chelly quite a while ago.

31760. wili at 14:09 PM on 31 January 2015
       Water is far more valuable and useful than oil
       

       "Water is far more valuable and useful than oil "

       They're fiding that out in Sao Paulo now.

31761. jja at 04:41 AM on 31 January 2015
       The Most Terrifying Papers I Read Last Year
       

       Chris G @7
       
       when you say, "I suspect food (in)security will hit us harder, faster than sea level rise."
       
       realize that the syrian destabilization and much of the political unrest in the region was catapaulted by an historic regional drought that drove rural populations into the cities looking for work and caused an explosion in the price of grain.
       
       The food insecurity issue is not as significant as the related political unrest, economic destabilzation and societal dissolution caused by (associated) regional conflict.  This "threat multiplier" of climate change is why the U.S. military considers global warming to be the greatest existential threat to the U.S. today.

31762. billthefrog at 22:42 PM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jja #18 & 19 (& Michael #13)

       Thanks for the IOP reference in #18 - it makes interesting reading and was certainly more concrete than the earlier paper I looked at.

       I did, however, notice some weasel words in there. For example, at the bottom of the second page... 

       For instance, in China installation and increased operation of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) for existing and new plants (Xu 2011, Zhang et al 2012) has caused a reduction of emissions compared with previous expectations

       The last 4 words in that sentence open a real can of worms. Also, the text box accompanying Fig 2 of the paper does refer to estimates, rather than empirically derived values. (I could be splitting hairs here, but reducing an estimate ain't necessarily the same as a real reduction.)

       The authors also observe that the aforementioned FGD improvements only really apply to power generation, not to transport, domestic usage and non-power related industry, where they continue to spiral upwards. They also point out that, consequently, the relative contribution from power is rapidly declining viz-a-viz these other sources.

       Worryingly, India does not appear to be following China's lead in trying to retrospectively clean up its act.

       Finally, can I just point out that the paper in question was specifically addressing the issue of anthropogenic SO₂: it was not looking at other aerosols, and it may be a step too far to assume that these are also on the wane. I don't think we can necessarily just write off the grey literature on this one.

       However, I do hope you're right and I'm wrong. If aerosols concentrations are still on the rise worldwide, then this will serve to hold back the worst excesses of climate change - but for a limited period only. The shit will then really hit the fan when we see a sudden significant aerosol reduction at some indeterminate point in the future. All the while, the ostrich brigade will be taking us on an irreversible "burn, baby, burn" route.

        

       On that cheerful note...            Bill F

       PS I totally agree with your assessment in #19

31763. jja at 17:47 PM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       We are very soon approaching the "locked-in" 2C warming threshold. 

31764. skymccain at 17:42 PM on 30 January 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5A
       

       The Weekly News Roundup is perhaps the most informative and vital contribution to climate change public awareness.  Thanks for all the work.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Thank you for the positive feedback. 

31765. jja at 16:57 PM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       I believe that these are underestimates (the pre-2008 values were actually higher than reported)

       http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014003/pdf/1748-9326_8_1_014003.pdf

       The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000–2011 emissions

       Klimont et. al. (2013)

31766. One Planet Only Forever at 14:04 PM on 30 January 2015
       Climate change could impact the poor much more than previously thought
       

       jja,

       I have an MBA and totally agree that the way many 'economists' value things and evaluate things is unrealistic and can even be shown to be irrational.

       I prefer to state that it is unacceptable for anyone to benefit at the expense of others or in a way that harms others, and others includes future generations and other aspects of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet. I add that helping others and striving to imrove the understanding of what is going on to improve the ability of humanity to advance to a sustainable constantly improving better future for all life on this amazing planet is among the most valuable things a person can do, contrary to what the current soicio-economic-political system values (encourages to be popular and profitable).

31767. One Planet Only Forever at 13:54 PM on 30 January 2015
       The oceans are warming so fast, they keep breaking scientists' charts
       

       MA Rogers,

       Thank you. Your explanations have helped clarify things for me.

31768. One Planet Only Forever at 13:52 PM on 30 January 2015
       Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
       

       I wonder if the Washington Post would be willing to lead the investigation into improperly validated reporting of climate change claims like they did regarding the Rolling Stone article about unacceptable activity at UVa.

       It would seem reasonable to challenge every media that reported that particular piece of Washington Post leadership on honest reporting to give equal billing to every case of a similarly inadequately validated report of a climate disruption claim.

       And an article identifying the media that would not repeat such reports, even though they repeated the Rolling Stone one, could be the culmination of their efforts, exposing which media is actually not trust-worthy.

31769. billthefrog at 10:09 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       Oops - typo!

       Penultimate paragraph in my #16 should read...

       ... Stephen Chu... and his "coal is my worst nightmare" views

31770. billthefrog at 10:03 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       Michael #13

       During the build up to the 2008 Bejing Olympics, the problem of atmospheric pollution (especially the PM2.5 crap) really started to get aired. (Pun intended.)

       My, admittedly very limited, understanding was that steps were certainly taken to reduce pollution in the vicinity of the Olympic venues, but that's hardly the same as country-wide. The Real Time Air Quality Index doesn't make for very comforting reading, although some areas in/around Bejing are better than others.

       Although many might distrust the source on principle, Greenpeace announced on 22nd Jan 2015 that Jia Zhangke, a Chinese filmmaker, had just released a short documentary dealing with the ongoing air pollution problem in China.

       I still remember Stephen Chu (Nobel Laureate and Secretary for Energy in President Obama's first term) and has "coal is my worst nightmare" views.

       Hence my scepticism regarding a reduction in sulphate emissions since 2009. It is obviously possible to increase coal consumption whilst reducing emissions, I'm just taking it with a pinch of salt until I see something a bit more concrete.

       Cheers     Bill F 

31771. KR at 08:10 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jgnfld - Good point, autocorrelation isn't a huge factor at 5 years or more.

       However, decadal and multidecadal internal climate variations such as ENSO, PDO, and the solar cycle have considerable impact on that scale, and again the possibility of >15 year low or negative trends driven by variations, overlaying longer term positive trends from GHGs, is not to be discounted.

       It's noteworthy that GCM runs exhibit similar emergent behavior when driven by basic physics. 

31772. jgnfld at 07:28 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       KR: Foster/Tamino aggregate at monthly intervals so of course there is a lot of autocorrelation. Aggregating at annual intervals tends to wash all or most away as shown by nonsignificant autocorrelation tests when you check. I have not checked the various series at half-decadal aggregations, but I suspect autocorrelation would be quite low at that level.

       I like the bet and given the magnitude of the long term trend I would have supported making it especially as the criterion was a simple rise of any magnitude greater than zero. I just disagree with that one particular bit of reasoning.

31773. michael sweet at 06:49 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jja,

       Thanks for the references.  I have always thought China aerosols would be important and am interested in seeing what is known.

       Bill: I understand that they are installing scrubbers on a lot of generators in China.   They are installing scrubbers because their pollution problem is so bad.  They are also replacing old units with newer, more efficient ones with scrubbers.  This means they can reduce sulfate emissions while increasing consumption of coal.  A quick Google gave me several news articles that were long on story and short on data. Supposedly the central government is forcing facilities to run the scrubbers because they are concerned about the terrible smog.  It makes sense that they would try to reduce smog but it will take some time to get in the peer reviewed system.

31774. billthefrog at 04:29 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jja #5 & #9

       I've had a look at the citation provided in #9, and, apart from the abstract, it is sadly behind a paywall. However, I found an article on a very similar topic to which you refer - interaction between Tropical Belt Width and the PDO - here on the AMetSoc web site.

       What I failed to find there was anything that remotely supported your comment (#5) concerning "China sulfate emissions reductions from 2009...". As stated in my #10, the information to hand suggests that China's sulphate emissions should be growing - hence causing a negative forcing (direct and indirect).

       There are three explanations that immediately spring to mind...

       1) I am developing selective blindness,

       2) Something (behind the paywall) in your citation talks about Chinese sulphate reductions, or

       3) You have inadvertently linked to the wrong article

       Cheers   Bill F

31775. billthefrog at 03:58 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jja #9

       Sorry, your response to Michael arrived whilst I was typing my #10.

       I'll have a plough through the citation you kindly provided.

       Cheers     Bill F

31776. billthefrog at 03:54 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jja #5

       "China sulfate emissions reductions from 2009 are also a major contributor to the recent warming trend"

       As Michael already indicated in #7, I would sure like to see a citation for this claim. I did a little presentation last year on energy consumption trends, and, as recently as 2012, China's voracious hunger for the nasty black stuff was showing no sign of abatement.

       Quoting an information brief from the US Energy Information Administration dated 14th May 2014...

       "Chinese production and consumption of coal increased for the 13th consecutive year in 2012. China is by far the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for 46% of global coal production and 49% of global coal consumption—almost as much as the rest of the world combined"

       Given that their consumption rate was still on the rise, it would be very interesting to learn what practices had been introduced that would result in a reduction in sulphate release!

       Cheers     Bill F

31777. jja at 03:49 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n4/full/ngeo2091.html
       
       Michael
       
       Anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect cloud effects are primary drivers of the PDO, this is only the first of preliminary results:
       
       In both time periods, anthropogenic aerosols act to modify the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and therefore contribute to the width of the tropical belt.
       
       In addition, Booth et. al (2012) correlated influence of aerosols on AMO http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7393/full/nature10946.html
       
       Though Zhang et. al has placed this observation in doubt.  http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog/isaac-held/2013/02/15/35-atlantic-multi-decadal-variability-and-aerosols/
       
       However, the unanswered questions regarding fluctuations in the AMOC driven by aerosols that Zhang brought up raises even more interesting questions regarding interhemispheral aerosol forcing effects on the AMOC and regional forcing effects on surface wind patterns in the South West and North East Pacific.
       
       I firmly believe that when these aerosol-ocean interactions are fully investigated we will find an entirely new anthropogenic fingerprint on surface warming.  If I am correct, we will see a very large increase in surface temperatures over the coming years as China is set to reduce her aerosol emissions profile significantly with emissions controls and a likely regional economic slowdown.
       
       

31778. KR at 01:06 AM on 30 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       jgnfld - There certainly is autocorrelation observed in the temperature record, which can be characterized as ARMA(1,1) in nature (Foster and Rahmstorf 2011, Appendix on Methods). A signal of that nature can easily show >15 year negative trends as variation over an underlying positive trend, as discussed at the end of this post with artificial data. 

       In addition, the GCMs produce much the same behavior from the physics, demonstrating autocorrelation and in effect inertia in variations. So the statement is entirely reasonable. 

31779. michael sweet at 20:34 PM on 29 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       JJA:

       citation?

31780. MEJ at 14:11 PM on 29 January 2015
       Temp record is unreliable
       

       Thanks Tom a very informative video from Kevin Cowtan. That software he is using is pretty cool. VERY clever. Good of Kevin to take the time. Could I just mention something. KC makes reference to 1970 & 2005 'temperature drop' doesn't Berkeley Earth flag those two periods as 'station moves'? I noticed that in the ATTP link 'scaddenp' posted #333

31781. jgnfld at 13:50 PM on 29 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       Re.: "A period of cooling due to incidental variations in the climate

       The climate knows random variations. Strengers wrote that these may lead to longer periods of no warming or even cooling, even under a steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. During the discussions, Strengers pointed to a study which shows on the basis of climate models that periods of up to 16 years of random cooling or non-warming may occur, even in an overall warming climate."  it may just be I'm not reading this right, but this seems to suffer from Gambler's Fallacy reasoning. That is unless he is invoking autocorrelation which does, in fact, allow such reasoning.

       
       In any case it might be worded more clearly.

31782. jja at 13:46 PM on 29 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       China sulfate emissions reductions from 2009 are also a major contributor to the recent warming trend.  The secondary cloud effects appear to be at the higher end of the uncertainty spectrum (more negative).

31783. wili at 12:28 PM on 29 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       " the degree of warming according to the UAH series, which is based on satellite measurements, was 0.1 °C over the last 5 years, compared to the mean of the 10 years before that. If this trend continues over the coming 5 years, our current decade will register a warming of around 0.15 °C"

       
       (From the second-to-last paragraph.)

       I don't follow this. If we had .1 degree warming over the first five years, would we expect .2 degees over the decade "if the trend continues"?

       Also, I was surprised to see no mention of volcanoes. Couldn't a major volcano eruption have through a major spanner into these rather short-term predictions?...

       ranyl asks: "...do we actually have a carbon debt rather than a budget already?"

       Certainly, yet, imho.

31784. ranyl at 12:20 PM on 29 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       Thanks Bart good read and interesting.

       You rightly highlight that there are papers suggesting a low CS recently and that given all thign matural we should be cooling, however have you also considered the several papers than suggest the CS might be higher than thought at ~4C but less than 5C and greater than 3C.

       "The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming."

       Steven C. Sherwood, Sandrine Bony & Jean-Louis Dufresne, "Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing" Nature 37, vol 505, 2 January 2014

       In medical practice a 95% chance of success is generally considered reasonably safe when taking actions, 99% is preferable and less than this and things became deemed quite risky.

       Therefore shouldn't we be considering, what is the CO2 accumulative emissions amount that would give a 95% chance of avoiding greater than a 2C in the next 100 years?

       And if the evidence in the paper holds true, (which is likely considering all that heat going into the oceans etc.) then the range for CS would start at 3C and end at 5C. A shift in the CS range of that nature would significantly reduce the carbon budget estimations currently being made for policy makers to ponder.

       Further maybe we should even be asking what is the total GHG emissions that gives a 95% chance of keeping earth lower than 2C for the next 300 years, given that prevention is better than cure for future generations?

       And is 2C even safe?

       As the only way to actually turn the CO2 heater down is to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, do we actually have a carbon debt rather than a budget already?

31785. DSL at 10:35 AM on 29 January 2015
       Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
       

       An interesting point, though, FreeDubay.  I'm set on cremation, but perhaps this is not the best way to go.  Maybe burial in a place designed for human sequestration.

31786. Wol at 10:08 AM on 29 January 2015
       Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
       

       @4:

        

       That's exactly what it looks like. Should be fairly simple to check with the Paraguayan met office.

31787. Stephen Baines at 08:55 AM on 29 January 2015
       Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
       

       FreeDubay @ 50

       Fossil fuels are from plants, its true, but that carbon was removed from the air hundreds of millions of years before humans ever walked the earth. So releasing that carbon isn't neutral from the perspective of human history or civilization. In addition, burning all of the fossil fuels would return us to a truly ancient pre-human atmospheric chemistry, with all its attendant consequences for climate, in only a only century or two, whereas it took many millions of years to stash away that carbon in the earth in the first place.  

       The CO₂ we exhale, on the other hand, was usually taken from the atmosphere in the last year or two. The uptake of that carbon from the air by food crops contributes fractionally to the regular annual fluctuations in atmospheric CO₂. Over scales longer than a year, the net effect on climate of carbon dioxide uptake by food crops and exhalation of CO₂ by people is essentially zero.

31788. citizen42 at 08:35 AM on 29 January 2015
       Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
       

       Over on notalotofpeopleknowthat (Booker's source), Paul has posted another exposé titled All Of Paraguay’s Temperature Record Has Been Tampered With, looking deeper at all the sites in Paraguay.

       In the comments someone called Eliza says (among other things):

       "My father set up/fixed to specified standrads [sic] all the stevensons boxes stations for the WMO in Paraguay during the 70’s (1964-1976)."

       Which is the period around that first drop in the raw data for several of the Paraguay stations. They don't seem to have noticed the connection over there.

31789. FreeDubay at 08:25 AM on 29 January 2015
       Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
       

       Using your reasoning about humans being neutral in terms of CO2. Following that logic the burning of fossil fuels can be deemed neutral as well. Oil and coal are derived from plants. They just happen to be sequestered in the ground. Its interesting though once taken out of the ground they still don't add to the increase in CO2 as they are in a liquid or solid state. Not unitl they are "burned" do they release CO2. I wonder if that is the same for humans, whether you should be buried or sequestered?

31790. Tom Curtis at 08:16 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       Sorry, forgot to add a footnote.  HadCRUT4 has been updated to a new version, but because the data with uncertainties was not currently accessible, I used the data for version 4.3.0.0 in my analysis.

31791. Tom Curtis at 08:13 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       ryland @various, my argument is not with the Met Office.  It is with the pseudo-skeptics who created a furror when (according to them) GISS announced that 2014 was a record year without qualification.  The simple fact is that 2014 is the record year in the GISSTEMP temperature index.  As it happens, the GISS announcement actually discussed the uncertainty in greater detail than has the HadCRUT4 announcement.  They just did not use the form of words that the pseudoskeptics wanted.  What is worse about some pseudoskeptics is that when knowledge of the table shown @36 became available, they treated it as a subsequent announcement, as a backdown, and as proof that 2014 was not the record year.  Each of those claims was false, and the first two grossly misrepresent the communications from NASA GISS.

       Beyond the political agenda of those pseudoskeptics, what is going on here is that people are confused by what is meant by "record x".  The record x, for whatever x is, is simply the highest value in the record.  The Guiness Book of Records, for example, does not claim that the car that currently holds the land speed record was the fastest ever car.  It simply claims that it is has the fastest speed entered in the records.  Other cars may have been faster, but been excluded because of the presence of a strong tail wind, the failure to run the test in both directions within a given time limit, or the simple absence of an official observer.  They do not even take note of potential error margins in observations which are certainly there, although I do not claim they are significant.  Likewise when reporting on the fastest delivery in cricket, nobody worries about the uncertainties in measurement.  Indeed, when record cold winters for the US are announced, the pseudoskeptics definitely do not draw attention to uncertainties (which are even more of a factor).  They just accept face value, or distort the figures.

       So, 2014 is the warmest year in the GISS record, and the warmest year in the HadCRUT4 record, and the warmest year in the NOAA record, and the warmest year in the BEST record.  That does not mean it was in fact warmer than 2010, because the measurement of GMST is uncertain - but it is the record year for each of those temperature indices.

       Further, distracting from that fact by saying it may not have been the record year is pure obfustication.  With HadCRUT4 (having now actually run the numbers), if you allow that obfustication there have been just 3 record years (1850 (by definition), 1990, and 1998), rather than the 15 record years that have actually occurred - 9 of them since 1983 (inclusive); and 4 of them since 1998 (inclusive).  (Full list at end of post.)  Further, the obfustication means that, if we accept the distorted terminology, the most recent "record year" is 1998, even though 1998 has a very low probability of being the actual hottest year in the last 150 years according to HadCRUT4, (and is "statistically excluded" according to BEST).

       1850

       1851

       1868
       1877
       1878
       1944
       1983
       1988
       1990
       1995
       1997
       1998
       2005
       2010
       2014

31792. Chris G at 07:50 AM on 29 January 2015
       Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
       

       God, if only the stakes were really only a good bottle of wine.

31793. Rob Honeycutt at 06:55 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       The way climate deniers are currently objecting to this latest record hot year, yes, that's what they're going to do. You'd have to have an extreme record to have the uncertainty fall above the uncertainty range of all previous years.

       And, 4C+ is a reference to business-as-usual emissions path leading to a 4C or better rise in surface temperatures over pre-industrial levels by 2100.

31794. ryland at 06:33 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       I really don't think that will happen as I'm sure at some stage the global temperature  of a particular year will be statistically different from the temperature in other years.   In any event how important is it for a particular year to be called the "hottest ever"?  Apologies but I don't know  what you mean by surface temps rise to 4C+.  

31795. gws at 06:23 AM on 29 January 2015
       Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
       

       AFAIK, most changes in data records are either due to changes in sensor type (like going from mercury in glass to electronic sensors) or changes in hour of recording (including how to calculate daily averages). In a particular country, this (a break in teh record) was then probably due to a nationwide switch made by the national body in charge of those measurements. Have to ask our South American readers here to chime in ...

31796. Rob Honeycutt at 06:08 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       Think it through, though. The way this is all suddenly being re-defined means that there will never be any new record warm years. There will likely always be some statistical likelihood (however small) that another year was actually warmer.

       So, now climate deniers can go all the way through the rest of the century stating that no year has been the warmest year, even as surface temps rise to 4C+.

31797. ryland at 05:40 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       Thanks Rob Honeycutt for actually addressing what te UK Met Office is saying.  Yes I agree they are being cautious but, as I'm sure you know, when submitting a paper for publication, to ehance your chances with the reviewers it is usually better to err on the side of caution.  From the new post on SkS the bet wasn't scrubbed as the stats weren't conclusive shows that the two bettors didn't really care and fair enough too in the context of the bet. That said however I do think that accepting the constraints on conclusions  placed by adhering to the results of statistical analysis is preferable to disregarding the stats

31798. Rob Honeycutt at 05:10 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       ryland... You may take note that the Met Office was the last to report the 2014 record. They waited (as far as I can tell) to see what responses came out from the other data sets. 

       In my opinion, the Met Office is taking an overly cautious approach to their statement. The NASA/NOAA folks took the extra step to point out the relative likelihood of each year being a record. In both sets 2014 stands out as being the most likely to be the warmest year. The Met Office soft peddled and merely stated that 2014 is "one of the warmest years" whereas, per Tom's comments above, it's quite clear that 2014 is by far the most likely to be the warmest.

       The only thing you're managing to point out is the fact that the Met Office has been more restrained in their definition. That's fine if that's how they want to approach the issue.

       The biggest point remains that 2014 was a ENSO neutral year and still managed to statistically beat all the other previous El Nino forced record years.

       That... is huge!!

31799. ryland at 04:37 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       As I tried to make plain in my response to Tom Curtis, I personally, do not have any particular stance on the record heat or otherwise of 2014.  The text in my first post (@44) was taken directly from the UK Met Office.  Your comments should be directed to the UK Met Office, possibly to Dr Colin Morice,  as it is their  words to which you take exception.  All I did, mistakenly it seems, was to draw attention to a statement by a very reputable institution full of "reality based people"  that was somewhat at odds with the title of this particular topic.  Why do you and others not address what the Met Office is saying?

31800. PhilippeChantreau at 03:42 AM on 29 January 2015
       Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics
       

       Ryland's way of arguing is common and unfortunately typical of a certain mindset. Looking at temperatures in recent years, it is painfully obvious that there is no pause in the warming, and never was. This argument was only made possible by the 1998 whopper year and every drop of nonsense has been squeezed out of it by fake skpetics. Because the trend is still there, every 5 years the argument becomes more stupid. Now they turn the stupid argument inside out and squeeze it the other way to get more out of it. Inevitably, there will be a year in the near future that will be statistically significant way above 1998, but not 2014, so we'll have more quibbling about words and ridiculous hair splitting, just like here. All because the reality based people are actually being honest and describing facts accurately. You can't win with dishonest people. Even if you do, they'll say you didn't. Wrestling in the mud with pigs...

       Every record year makes me more disgusted with the reality of this "debate."

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