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topal at 02:00 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
"We expected our work would be attacked from those who reject climate science. We weren’t disappointed." You mean "attacked from those who reject consensus as science". Nobody rejects science when it is real science, not just opinions of "scientists".
Moderator Response:[JH] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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It's cooling
pbjamm - Given comments from long-known denier organizations like JunkScience:
"We think he’s a scam artist trying to get his hands in your pockets but couldn’t see how he expected to do so — now he’s told us. He’s looking for ‘meaningful funding’ and he thinks the skeptic community might be eager enough to slay the catastrophic warming myth to fork over some cash"
or blogger Tom Nelson, who thinks that SSRC is a scam, and longtime WUWT commenter Leif Svalgaard:
"The ‘Space and Science Research Center’ and John Casey should not be relied on for valid research. I know of Mr. Casey and have checked his credentials and they are not legitimate. He has tried to recruit even me into his band of ‘experts’. I would not place any value on the ramblings ofthe press release."
SSRC is not a source to be relied on. Even known loons think so.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:19 AM on 21 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Glenn @36,
Thanks for the link. Interesting presentation.It is unfortunate that the writer did not simply state that the 'different Republican Party' needed to be developed to have a future needs to actually focus on development of a sustainable better future for all life. The Democrats also need to change, just not as much as the Republicans.
The current group behind the Republicans is trying to win through momentarily potentially successful but ultimately unsustainable actions like: appealing for the votes of intolerant people, gerrymandering, tricky voter ID legislation and deliberate mass-misleading marketing efforts. That effort is inevitably leading to damaging future failure.
The appearances of success obtained by those actions and attitudes will ultimately collapse because they are fundamentally at odds with the development of a sustainable better future for all life on this amazing planet.The population will inevitably become more aware caring and thoughtful, or its society and economy has no future. And as more thoughtful aware and caring people vote based more on their 'thoughtful consideration of all the facts' than their 'selfish impulse of the moment' the people who fight to try to prolong their ability to succeed from unsustainable harmful (unhelpful) actions and attitudes will fail more frequently.
History is full of examples of 'moments of apparent success' by those who only cared about themselves in their time. Humanity only progressed to a better future when those people failed to succeed. And humanity will continue to progress, in spite of the damaging delusions that can be generated in the minds of easily impressed people immersed in a mad mass-marketed consumptive unsustainable chase for an unsustainable 'impression' of success.
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pbjamm at 01:03 AM on 21 November 2014It's cooling
I am a long time lurker and occasional commenter here and I need some help. I received a link to this article from my Dad yesterday and it is so full of nonsense I dont even know where to start debunking it. I can find no outside information on the 'scientist' John L Casey. All claims about his expertise and history seem to come from the bio on his website.
The Dark Winter linked to reads like an elaborate scam to get money from the gullible and paranoid. It is full or random unsourced claims, about Al Gore, Global Cooling, and scams. Please help me out guys and gals. If there is a more appropriate "Help Me" page
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wili at 00:12 AM on 21 November 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #47A
It would be great to include something about the mega-snow event in Buffalo, but I haven't seen a MSM news story that includes GW in it, even though it has GW fingerprints all over it. Yes, lake-effect snow is common. But the fact that these extreme levels of snowfall broke records shows that this event was quite uncommon.
After a warm summer and fall, some of the lake temps were at record highs. Then you had the odd "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" effect that is becoming more common as GW proceeds, displacing lots of Arctic air over those warm water bodies...and record lake-effect snows were a rather predictable result.
If anyone does see someone connect these dots in the MSM, please to provide a link here. (And of course, if I've botched something in my reasoning here--not at all unlikely--please let me know that, too.)
Moderator Response:[JH] See the seventh listed article in the OP.
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Christian Moe at 19:58 PM on 20 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Peru's point @9 about intermittency matters. Fisk et al's test subjects were exposed to elevated CO2 concentration for a 2.5-hour period, and the test was administered over the latter half of that period. Their bodies would have little time to adjust. That's fine for Fisk et al's purposes, looking at office-building conditions. They draw no conclusion about the effects of permanently elevated atmospheric CO2, and I don't see how such conclusions can be drawn on the basis of their study. As Marcin admits in @30, studies of long-term exposure would be required. That would have been a fitting conclusion to an article seeking to relate this study to global change.
Why the speculations about IQ? Are there studies that find elevated CO2 lowers IQ? Fisk's didn't test IQ.
I concede that my argument from incredulity @25 about naval nuclear submarine crews was not compelling. I guess reduced "initiative" could be seen as a feature rather than bug when you've got a tin can of young males confined handling the world's most dangerous weapons — in line with KR's anecdotal evidence @31. And though you'd care about anything degrading the decision-making performance of officers hunting and being hunted by other submarines, they'd start from a very high baseline performance, as Marcin pointed out @30, and could count on the other side breathing at least as much CO2.
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shoyemore at 18:44 PM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Just to re-inforce my last point:
A Dem Congressman will support the GOP on Keystone to "pave the way" for compromise
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shoyemore at 18:40 PM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
"So all the Democrat Senators should be an essentially indivisible block like the Republicans chose to be through the past 6 years."
Unfortunately, that is not always true. In the recent election, Democrats ran away from the President, the healthcare improvements achieved by his Administration, and the improving economy. Again, they allowed the Republicans to write the agenda ("Things are cr*p and everything is the fault of Big Government"), every Democrat fought for survival as an individual and allowed himself or herself to be picked off.
If the Democrats stop being defensive and mount an aggressive campaign for collective action with a simple message, they have much better chance in 2016.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:47 PM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
And here is a Republican supporter (of the old fashioned sensible conservative variety - remember them) who thinks the GOP is in big trouble in 2016; Presidency, House Senate.
Maybe all the policies the Dem's need is 'America Needs You To Vote'. High voter turn-out and the GOP is toast. -
One Planet Only Forever at 14:05 PM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
The Republicans will not have 67 seats in the new Senate. And only a delusional Democrat would believe their vote for XL would get them votes in 2016 from 'voters who only care about getting the best possible personal benefit to the detriment of developing a sustainable better future for all'.
So all the Democrat Senators should be an essentially indivisible block like the Republicans chose to be through the past 6 years. That way the only approval of XL comes paired with significant dramatic meaningful curtailing of other 'unacceptable profitable activity'. I would encourage that to be far more significant curtailing of coal burning in the US and curtailing coal sales out of the US than can be accomplished by "Executive Order', along with banning the burning and exporting of Petroleum Coke, a byproduct more damaging than coal resulting from trying to make something conveniently burnable out of the crud from Alberta.
Any approval of XL based on a promise by its supporters to agree to such actions 'at a future date' would be an absurd deal to make given the proven history of those type of people to 'Never accept No' as an answer to their incessent demands to get away with unacceptable unsustainable behaviour.
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Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Anecdotal evidence, but...
A friend of mine who spent his twenty in the navy, mostly in the sub service, told me that the low O2 and high CO2 levels were preferred because they _did_ slow the sailors down mentally, leading to more time in the bunks and less energy to cause trouble in confined quarters. After all, damage control and many other duties require rote learning, not considered decision making. Follow The Book, don't reinvent it.
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Marcin Popkiewicz at 09:23 AM on 20 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Thank you all for valuable remarks and links. Yes, it's debatable, how elevated CO2 concentrations influence our ability to process information. I also agree that it's quite possible that Robertson's opinion is too extreme. It's true that our bodies have strong balancing mechanisms, buffering us from too strong blood acidification and enabling us to function under such conditions, allowing us to perform simple or routine tasks. But, as research of Fisk et al (as well as ventilation norms and observation of crowded meeting rooms, who wake up after a short draught) suggest, CO2 concentration of 1000 or 2500 ppm seems to hamper our information processing and strategic thinking abilities.
In case of submarine crews their extensive training allows them to perform their duties on a routine level, mostly without real need for learning "on the fly". Their officers, who have to make such decisions, have high intellectual abilities - even if one's IQ decreases from 130 to 125 pts (or even 120), he still will be a highly intelligent and capable individual.
Maybe we don't have to worry much. Maybe. But none of the research cited answers this question in a direct and unambiguous way. It would be much better to be sure, by performing experiments similar to Fisk et al., but with a much better statistics and longer exposures time for various CO2 concentrations. Then we would know whether after staying at high CO2 concentrations for a long time we will adapt without any measurable loss to our IQ or not.
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Composer99 at 08:48 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Ashton,
What evidence is there that Keystone or fracking were key policy planks motivating voters in the 2014 midterms?
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John Hartz at 07:04 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Recommended reading:
Democrats block Keystone pipeline, but GOP vows new fight when it takes over by Paul Kane and Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Nov 18, 2014
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:32 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
shoyemore... The Republicans have far more seats in play in 2016 than do the Democrats. The Dems have 10 up for reelection, where the Republicans have 24. [Source]
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shoyemore at 06:03 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Rob Honeycutt, #27
Ok, thanks for that. One Democrat Senator, who is in a runoff (from Louisiana, a state not really affected) broke ranks on this vote because she looks like she will lose her seat. So there is a risk that more Senators will waver, afraid of a voter meltdown in 2016.
But I agree that a veto override is unlikely - thanks for the information.
However, there is always a risk that the Preisdent will bargain Keystone for what may seem an advantage elsewhere.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:37 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
marcf... Yeah, I think the Republican lead Senate next year will still come up short of the 67 votes necessary to override a veto. And Obama has been taking a much firmer stance on climate change.
I also think that, even though there is popular support for KXL, it's fairly soft support. It's not a pivotal issue for most voters.
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marcf at 05:23 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Chrizkoz @19, Rob - Some of the Senate votes for the pipeline will not change even with the new Congress. For example Landrieu (likely to lose runoff) and Begich from Alaska will be replaced by Republicans but both voted for the pipeline.
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wili at 04:02 AM on 20 November 2014Turbulent week for global climate policy leaves many questions
And now there's this:
China To Cap Coal Use By 2020 To Meet Game-Changing Climate, Air Pollution Targets
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Ashton at 03:38 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
I'm surprised that in the 27 comments to date no-one has commented on what is probably the major reason the US will develop the XXL pipeline and will increase shale oil fracking. As shale oil production has increased so the US has become less and less reliant on the supply of oil from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries and is in fact exporting more oil than some OPEC countries. For decades now the West and particularly the US, have been held to ransom through threats to and manipiulation of oil supplies by OPEC. The US, will not, if it can possibly help it, return to that scenario. That many Americans do not agree with President Obama is shown clearly by the result of the mid-term elections. This quote from USA Today on November 13 2013 is relevant :
"The United States tiptoed closer to energy independence last month when — for the first time in nearly two decades — it produced more crude oil than it imported, federal officials said Wednesday.
The nation has been moving toward this milestone, because two trends are converging. Domestic oil production is at a 24-year high while foreign oil imports are at a 17-year low. The result: production exceeded net imports for the first time since February 1995, although the nation still imports 35% of the petroleum it uses.
Production has been booming partly because of hydraulic fracturing or fracking, which extracts oil by blasting water mixed with sand and chemicals underground to break apart shale rock. Meanwhile, consumption has been falling as high gasoline prices have reduced how much people drive and more efficient cars and buildings have also lowered energy use.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:58 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
From wiki: "Senate rules permit a senator, or series of senators, to speak for as long as they wish and on any topic they choose, unless "three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn" (usually 60 out of 100 senators) brings debate to a close by invoking cloture under Senate Rule XXII."
So, it's 60 votes to stop a filibuster but 67 votes to override a veto.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:57 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
christoz... The vote yesterday was short by one to avoid a filibuster. The 2/3 vote to override a veto would be 67 out of the 100 senators. So, even if they'd gotten the necessary 60 votes yesterday they still would have faced a veto. Next year might be a different matter, but Dems may also close ranks with the new Senate, meaning the 67 votes to override a veto may still not be there.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:53 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ @23... "That's seriously flawed."
I posted 5 articles that say KXL would likely raise prices nationally. That was just the first 5 I got in a google search. There were tons more.
You seem to be applying an overly simplified idealization of economics to the question. There are other issues that come into play relative to restrictions on re-exporting crude oil.
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John Hartz at 01:32 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Recommeded reading:
Keystone XL: A Tar Sands Pipeline to Increase Oil Prices by Anthony Swift, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), May 21, 2012
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billthefrog at 01:11 AM on 20 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Being something of an old git, I cannot but help thinking of Apollo 13 whenever I hear/read about the decidely unwelcome effects of elevated CO2 levels.
A quick Google check turned up the following reference which may be of interest to some readers. The title of the piece is "Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations for Selected Airborne Contaminants" and it is on the National Acadamies Press.
The section in question deals with Carbon Dioxide - although I'm sure the very idea of regarding CO2 as a contaminant will raise some hackles. The opening paragraph reads as follows...
Carbon dioxide is the major expired by-product of human metabolism; if not effectively controlled, it can rapidly accumulate to dangerous concentrations in spacecraft atmospheres. On earth, the outdoor CO2 concentration is typically about 0.03%, and average indoor air contains CO2 in the range of 0.08% to 0.1% (IEQ 2006). In nominal spacecraft operations, the CO2 concentration is typically about 0.5%, but the concentration approached 2% during the troubled Apollo 13 mission (Michel et al. 1975). Carbon dioxide can also enter the atmosphere of a space habitat from accidental combustion of materials, from operation of payloads that use CO2 as an intravehicular propellant, and from use of the fire extinguisher, which, on the U.S. segment of the International Space Station (ISS), is CO2.
From the above numbers, anyone who spends most of their time indoors is already experiencing CO2 levels somewhere in the 800 - 1000 ppm(v) range as their default exposure. Until the Lithium Hydroxide scrubbers in the Apollo 13 Command Module were "persuaded" to fit into the Lunar Module, the levels in Aquarius were pushing 20,000 ppm. -
Russ R. at 00:53 AM on 20 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Tom Curtis @14,
"your comment amounts merely to a slogan."
Slogan? Are you serious?
The chart depicts a perfectly linear relationship between blood pH and atmospheric CO2. There are two blatantly obvious reasons that this contradicts reality.
- First, pH a logarithmic scale.
- Second, blood is a buffered solution.
Here's what the logarithmic H-H relationship looks like over that range, without even considering the buffering effect (i.e. HCO3 held constant):
I wouldn't say that "approximates to linearity". Would you? And that's entirely ignoring the buffering effect, which would further limit the pH change.
If you want to dispute the validity and accuracy of the H-H equation which you claim "is not a given", be my guest. Those are some mighty fine straws you're grasping at.
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Russ R. at 00:37 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
The US Midwest is a region, shrinking crude supply in that region would be offset by growing supply in another... the US Gulf Coast.
You're conflating higher prices in one region with higher prices nationwide. That's seriously flawed.
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Composer99 at 00:36 AM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ R.:
I'd like to know how that's possible, because the laws of supply and demand don't support that conclusion
On what basis don't they? So far all you've provided is your say-so.
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Christian Moe at 00:25 AM on 20 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Martin Audley @28,
Far as I can tell, the graph is not from any measurements of blood pH at all. There are none in Robertson 2006 and none in the cited data source, Robertson 2001. The 2001 paper does some calculations, apparently based on the premise that the hydrogen ion concentration in the blood changes proportionally with the atmospheric CO2 concentration. No idea how he got from there to the linear graph, though.
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Martin Audley at 22:39 PM on 19 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
If I say this article is bollocks, I'll be moderated out, so I won't, but...
The graph of association between atmospheric CO2 and blood pH can only be from (very) short term experiments on raising CO2 and measuring blood pH. It has no relevance to how the body buffers and stabilises blood pH over a longer term (which might even be as short as hours or days. It's therefore simply irrelevant to a conversation about human response to century-long changes in CO2.
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michael sweet at 22:04 PM on 19 November 2014Weather Channel co-founder John Coleman prefers conspiracies to climate science
Satoh,
While I appreciate your opinion that you can detect flaws in peer reviewed science without reading the article, I doubt that many readers on this site will agree with your uninformed assessments. Perhaps you should consider reading the article that graph came from before you decide it is incorrect. The LIA and MWP are both very flexible time periods depending on who is looking at the graph.
Moderator Response:[JH] The comment that you have responded to has been deleted because it was nothing more than nonsensical trolling. Satoh had been previously warned that his/her posts would be summarily deleted.
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Tristan at 21:35 PM on 19 November 2014Weather Channel co-founder John Coleman prefers conspiracies to climate science
Which graph, Satoh? This one http://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=48 ?
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Christian Moe at 19:50 PM on 19 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Tom Curtis @23,
I agree that the NRC findings do not seem to challenge those of Fisk et al 2013 directly. Fisk et al sought to measure capabilities that the pencil-and-paper tasks in the 1974 study in all likelihood did not. I take back the comment that they are difficult to reconcile.
Think about the wider context of submarines, though. If the findings of Fisk et al are correct and widely applicable, the U.S. Navy (and its Soviet counterpart) spent the Cold War entrusting its most critical missions, its weapons of absolute last resort, to crews with significantly impaired "decision-making performance" – below average at utilizing information and taking a broad approach, and dysfunctionally deficient in initiative and basic strategy. Come to think of it, given what was at stake, it's sort of astonishing that the NRC study doesn't record any studies of decision-making under elevated CO2. So I guess it's conceivable that these functions really are badly impaired, and that the Navy didn't know, or didn't let on that they knew.
Still, it's easy to agree with Fisk et al that:
The strength of the effects at 2,500 ppm CO2 is so large for some metrics as to almost defy credibility, although it is possible that such effects occur without recognition in daily life. Replication of these study findings, including use of other measures of complex cognitive functioning and measures of physiologic response such as respiration and heart rate, is needed before definitive conclusions are drawn.
The Zappulla reference sets off my alarm bells in much the same way as Robertson's. Two of Zappulla's four publications on Scopus, including the one referenced here, are book chapters published by academic vanity press Nova Publishers.
I'll go out on a limb and disagree with you, something I rarely do. I don't think the article is informative. It does tell about an interesting, actually, an astonishing study. But the potential for misinformation outweighs the information. It ignores the study's caveats about needing replication before conclusions can be drawn, sandwiches it between speculative claims from sources of low credibility and a thought experiment about lowered IQ (not observed). The casual reader is left with the take-away message that rising CO2 will make us stupid, an extraordinary claim not supported by extraordinary evidence. I rely on SkepticalScience to be more skeptical than this.
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shoyemore at 18:28 PM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
After the recent elections, President Obama has to thread cautiously and pick his fights. If he vetoes the Keystone legislation, there may still be enough Democrat Senators to join the Republicans in overturning his veto.
As I just read that the current Senate has still voted it down, the clash is going to come in the new year, when the Republican Senate takes over.
If he thinks letting Keystone pass will gain him some advantage elsewhere, perhaps he should approve it. That is what Bill Nye seems to be saying in this interview (towards the end).
IMHO, the President should still veto the pipeline and challenge the Senate to override it. It will set up the battlelines for 2016, fire up the Democrat environmental base and reinforce the logic behind the US deal with China.
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longjohn119 at 18:08 PM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Here is why the cost of gasoline will rise in the US Midwest.
Currently most gasoline in Midwest is made from Canadian bitumen (It's NOT oil and I'm not going to call it oil because it is not) and refined mainly in the Chicago area. If the Keystone XL goes through then all that oil will go to Texas and the gasoline made from it overseas which will create a severe feedstock (bitumen) shortage and as the Law of Supply and Demand tells us the price of gasoline will go up
Before you answer "Bakken" or "North Dakota" as a sup[plier that's a no-go because that is real oil and all the Midwest refineries are set up to refine bitumen meaning a complete overhaul and once again the price goes up
It's as simple as that -
chriskoz at 15:31 PM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Rob@17,
Why are you so sure?
My understanding is: this outcome was short by only one vote (59-41, wheareas 2/3 or 60-40 is needed) but this is Dem controled senate; next year, when new senate sits, it will be Rep controlled, so they will gather required 2/3 more easily.
Then, Obama's veto may not last very long, because according to Veto legislation in US:
in the legislative process of the United States, where a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate may override a Presidential veto of legislation
which is highly likely in the new congress that we'll inheritt afted recent election. So IMO, the KXL fate is not moot for full 2years, it may be pushed within couple months of next year. Unless my understanding of US legislative process is incorrect in which case please advise me.
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beansformilagro at 15:08 PM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ R. @11 ...
the IEA data at Macleans you've linked to states " ... the cost of crude is by far the largest cost to a refinery, and there is no question Keystone XL will affect crude oil prices in the US, leading to more expensive crude in the mid continent than would otherwise be the case."
They also continue with a number of contradictory statements where previous massive crude discounts had virtually no discount on midwest oil prices which were 4% higher than coastal prices. They go on to say 'consumers were still paying gasoline prices based on the higher cost production in other areas and export market prices."
It is not a far leap from what Macleans says to see that higher cost crude will mean higher prices to consumers.
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Rob Honeycutt at 14:12 PM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
And, really, likely moot for another two years since Obama is likely to veto any bill.
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wili at 14:09 PM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ seems to have a bone he won't give up no matter how much counter evidence is presented. In the mean time:
Senate Rejects Keystone XL Pipeline By One Vote
So the whole discussion would seem to be moot, for now at least.
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paul11176 at 10:46 AM on 19 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
I am skeptical of this article.
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Tom Curtis at 09:54 AM on 19 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Christian Moe @21, thank you. That book seems like a very definitive reference on the subject. Recommended maximum levels are set out in Table 3-3 (page 60):
"TABLE 3-3 Emergency and Continuous Exposure Guidance Levels for Carbon Dioxide
Exposure Level
U.S. Navy Values (ppm)
NRC Recommended Values (ppm)
Current
Proposed
EEGL1 h
40,000
30,000
25,00024 h
40,000
15,000
25,000
CEGL90 days
5,000
7,000
8,000
Abbreviations: CEGL, continuous exposure guidance level; EEGL, emergency exposure guidance level; h, hour; NRC, National Research Council; ppm, parts per million."Formating was not preserved in my cut and paste, so in explantion, the values are in order the current (2001) Navy maximum concentration standards, the recommended new standard by committee, and the National Research Council recommended values for, in turn, 1 hour, 24 hour and 90 day exposures. The report does not some minor adverse effects that are ignored because they clear up on return to normal atmospheric conditions. If atmospheric CO2 levels were to rise to 7,000 ppmv, these minor conditions would not clear up, and may become worse with prolonged exposure. Never-the-less, it seems clear that CO2 will not have direct toxic effects on humans at concentrations achievable in this century, or likely even with BAU in the next. Mild toxic levels could be achieved from a determined effort to burn all fossil fuel reserves (which can raise CO2 concentrations to 10,000 ppmv if carried through) but that is likely not a realistic scenario, nor one that need be considered in the short term even if it were in that there must be a significant time in which that route could be avoided.
I do not think these results challenge those of Fisk et al 2013, however. They types of effects shown by Fisk 2013 are too sutble for consideration by NRC subcomittee, and would fall into the category they considered as not relevant because the effects are not permanent after return to normal (380 ppmv) CO2 concentrations. They would become relevant if normal CO2 concentrations rose to 2500 ppmv or (perhaps) even 1000 ppmv. I think reliance on Robertson 2006 was a mistake, but that the rest of the article is interesting and informative, and has not been challenged by anything you have uncovered.
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Christian Moe at 09:31 AM on 19 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
The pH graph is from an article by D. S. Robertson in Current Science, which bills itself as India's leading multidisciplinary science journal. For the "data", the graph credits another article by the same D. S. Robertson published in the Elsevier journal Medical Hypotheses in 2001, "The rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the effects on human health" ( doi:10.1054/mehy.2000.1256). Scopus suggests this was Robertson's first published article, followed in short order by a further 11 papers in Med. Hyp. on a variety of topics up to 2005, during which period he published nothing in any other journal. It's way past bedtime here, so I'm not reading it tonight, but it sounds speculative at best, and I don't think this was a well-considered post.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:13 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ @8...
1) These are two different issues. Tax and dividend would account for externalities and incentivize low carbon solutions, while returning the costs to tax payers. KXL is a question of whether to leave reserves in the ground.
2) The Forbes article I cited above addresses issues of refining and export.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:09 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ... There's a great deal of support for the position that KXL may likely raise gas prices. Perhaps your analysis of supply and demand doesn't take full account of the economics involved.
Forbes: KXL Won't Lower Gas Prices, It Might Raise Them
Why The Keystone Pipeline Will Actually RAISE Gas Prices In the U.S.
Bernie Sanders Shatters The Big Keystone XL Lie: Pipeline Will Cause US Gas Prices To Go Up
Keystone Oil Pipeline Seen Raising Gas Prices in Midwest: Energy
The Keystone XL pipeline isn’t about lowering your gas prices
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Russ R. at 08:42 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Composer99,
" it doesn't follow that US citizens will benefit in the form of reduced prices at the pumps..."
I never claimed that US consumers would enjoy lower gasoline prices. In all likelihood, the benefit of lower crude oil prices would go to the refiners, assuming that the marginal unit of gasoline supply is being imported.
John Abraham claimed that the pipeline would cause US gasoline prices to rise... not just Midwest prices... US prices. I'd like to know how that's possible, because the laws of supply and demand don't support that conclusion.
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Russ R. at 08:33 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
wili,
"But being refined in this country does not mean it will be sold here."
There's a piece missing in your reasoning. Crude oil is already being refined in the Gulf Coast (which is operating at capacity) and the products are already being sold in the US.
If more cheap Canadian crude flows to the refineries on the Gulf Coast, which displaces expensive Mexican and Venezuelan heavy crude, why should domestic sales of refined products (gasoline and diesel) fall?
The only reason that refiners would ship more fuel abroad is if domestic gasoline prices fell relative to export prices.
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Russ R. at 08:18 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
beansformilagro,
"The Keystone crude is all earmarked for Latin America and Europe and not for the US." Evidence?
"the pipeline will cause the rerouting of oil destined for midwest USA and that will raise prices of gasoline, esp for the midwest." This has been addressed and debunked... with EIA data.
But even if it was true... the regional reduction in Midwest crude supply would be offset by an equivalent increase in Gulf Coast supply. The net amount of crude oil supply wouldn't decline... rather, it would increase because the pipeline would extend all the way to Canada.
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wili at 08:15 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ R--Of course it's going to be refined on the Gulf. That's one of the main reasons to build the line in the first place. But being refined in this country does not mean it will be sold here.
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Composer99 at 08:14 AM on 19 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Russ R:
The Globe & Mail article you quote doesn't claim what you assert it does. The passage you cite confirms only that Canadian tar sands crude is priced attractively with respect to refining firms; it doesn't follow that US citizens will benefit in the form of reduced prices at the pumps unless you can also show that domestic US usage is the designated purpose for Canadian tar sands crude. The Globe & Mail article certainly doesn't.
What is more, unless you have some analysis (i.e. of the factors affecting US gasoline pricing) to back it up, you're not in a position to proclaim with any authority that a carbon tax and Keystone XL can't possibly both cause a rise in average/typical gasoline prices in the US (or in individual regions therein).
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Christian Moe at 07:57 AM on 19 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
This all seems terribly difficult to square with the performance of the crews routinely enduring significantly higher CO2 levels in submarines and spacecraft. Have a look at chapter 3, "Carbon Dioxide", in Emergency and Continuous Exposure Guidance Levels for Selected Submarine Contaminants (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2007,
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11170&page=46), from which I take all the quotes below.The OP suggests "dysfunctional" initiative and basic strategy at 2500 ppm CO2. Alert the navy! "Data collected on nine nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 3,500 ppm with a range of 0-10,600 ppm..." (p. 47)
There are studies from the 1990s to suggest a lowest observed adverse effect level of 25,000 ppm for visual effects (p. 53). In a study from 1974, "CO2 at 40,000 ppm for 2 weeks did not affect performance on multiple tests of cognitive function in physically fit young airmen" (p. 54)
As for buffering of blood pH: "CO2 exposures as low as 7,000 ppm can lower blood pH by up to 0.05 units, but even at high exposures, renal compensation seems to occur in healthy subjects. In a 30-day exposure to CO2 at 20,000 ppm, there was an average pH change of only 0.01 units" (p. 51) Again, that is hard to square with the OP's claim that the rise from preindustrial has lowered blood pH by 0.1.
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