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Composer99 at 00:14 AM on 12 August 2014Facts can convince conservatives about global warming – sometimes
carbtheory:
I'm not really sure why we should find your line of thinking compelling.
Can you clarify? Are you suggesting that we should suspect the results of the research of tens of thousands of scientists over 150 years because of a very recent, and (charitably) modestly-supported foray into some aspect of personality?
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dr2chase at 23:01 PM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Glenn Tamblyn @42, for an anecdotal test of the importance of insolation versus climate, visit England (I just did for the first time, among other things we visited Kew Gardens and the Cambridge Botanical gardens, as well as traveling by train between Cambridge and London). London's at 51 30' N, Cambridge at 52 12' N, and we were struck by how vigorous some of the plants were compared to their counterparts near Boston.
This is different climate moderation from what is expected in the future for Northern Canada so I'd expect different results then/there, but it is also an example showing that very healthy plant growth is entirely possible beyond latititude 50N.
And if I were the sort of person to plan for disaster, I'd be putting a lot of thought into figuring out how to remediate, improve, or adapt to agriculture in terrible soils. Hubris, I know, and no substitute for prevention, but draining swamps is known and ancient technology.
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Tom Curtis at 22:14 PM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Glenn Tamblyn @42, that is a very important point. The current agricultural zone in Canada extends to about 55 North, so that future agriculture made possible by global warming will be north of that. However, noon insolation is not the best indicator of the effect on agriculture. Although at 60 North, noon insolation is less than at 45 North, the longer summer day at 60 North results in more summer insolation overall, as shown on this chart of total daily insolation by latitude and day of year:
As can be seen, however, the price of that increased summer insolation is a much shorter growing season overall. It high northerly latitudes, at most one growing season will be available per year regardless of temperature and soil quality.
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carbtheory at 20:45 PM on 11 August 2014Facts can convince conservatives about global warming – sometimes
Look up "followership" on wikipedia. Under "Followeship Patterns" there are five descriptions of types of followers. Have a look at #5.
"5. The Star Followers: These exemplary individuals are positive, active and independent thinkers. Star followers will not blindly accept the decisions or the actions of a leader until they have evaluated them completely. Furthermore, these types of followers can succeed without the presence of a leader."
The last sentence indicates that a star follower is actually leadership material.
Now, ideally all scientists would fit this description. However, how many people have the time, money, persistance or for that matter the intelligence to truely fit the description of a "Star Follower" when it comes to climate change. More often than not, one scientific paper depends on another that has already been written to back it up. Yet there are highly quallified scientists who attempt to fit the star follower description and have come to the conclusion that AGW theory is seriously flawed. I dare say many people put them in a group as deniers.
Most likely the majority of people fit #'s 1,2,3 and 4 follower descriptions. (Typical society %'s next to all 5 types would be helpful.)
So then, what percentage of the 97% concensus on climate change are, or truely attempt to be a "Star Follower"? Indeed should society pick their leaders due to a high % of followers in a scientific consensus?
Moderator Response:[JH] It is customary for commenters on this website to provide links to materials being cited in a post. Please do so in your future posts.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:32 PM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Another factor missing from this discussion of potential crop yields vis-a-vis Canada is latitude and available sunlight.
The Great Valley in California for example lies between 35 & 40 North. Central Canada in contrast is roughly between 50 & 55 North.
This is the relative amounts of sunlight arriving at noon for different latitudes and time of year. From here:
It isn't just temperature and soil type that restrict crop yields in Canade vs lower latitudes. It is also available sunlight and length of growing season.
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Tom Curtis at 13:27 PM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Bob Loblaw @38, the initial link was to the correct location. The map at that location shows the limited area of Canada that has been thoroughly mapped as to soil type. However, as that causes confusion, here is a map of the Canadian Prairie from wikipedia:
As can be seen the area of the prairie approximately corresponds with the area shown by your map. Specifically, your map is bounded by Lake Winnipeg in the east, the Rockies in the west, and does not extend far north of the top of Lake Winnipeg. It includes not more than two thirds of Alberta and Saskatchewan, and much less a proportion of Manitoba. It is overall a small portion of Canada. I do not think we can reasonably argue to the lack of suitable soils for agriculture in Northern Canada from a map that does not show any of Northern Canada.
To make up that lack, I looked up Mills (1994). IMO, Mills (1994) shows that there are currently some lands in Canada suitable for agriculture as regards their soil, but on which agriculture is prevented by climate. Some of those lands will be openned up to agriculture by climate change. However, the total amount of land potentially opened up to agriculture by global warming is small relative to the total arable land in the USA plus Canada (approx 8%), and very small relative to world agricultural land (approx 1.2%). Even assuming a similar expansion in available agricultural land in Russia results in a small overall impact on abailable food production, and probably insufficient to compensate for other climate related losses.
The additional agricultural land represents just 1.6% of Canada's total land area, so I am certainly not trying to contradict your argument. Rather, I am providing a peer reviewed estimate (if dated) so that Donny can try to make his case if he thinks he has one, and noting that I do not think he does (hence my comment about comparison with global wheat production, and comparison with the arable land area of Texas and California).
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Bob Loblaw at 11:04 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Further to the question of possible expansion of arable land in Canada, in eastern Canada (primarily Ontario and Quebec) the current agricultural zones usually butt up against PreCambrian Shield zones, which have very little potential for agriculture. Growing up in Ontario, I saw many regions of abandoned farms that people attempted to settle in the 1800s, but could not make a go of it due to poor soils (not climate!).
The major exception I can think of in Ontario and Quebec is the Clay Belt. That is one area of reasonable soils, where changes in climate would increase agricultural potential.
The huge tracts of land that Donny is speaking about exist only in his imagination.
Moderator Response:[PS] Please keep the tone civil.
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scaddenp at 11:04 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
There is a very important point in here. If climate change occurs slowly, then there is time for soils suitable for agriculture to develop as ice recedes - but it is a long process over centuries and millenia, not decades. Our problem isnt that the climate is changing - it that it is changing too fast.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:54 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Tom @ 9:36am (now 36, but number will probably change as more posts from Donny are deleted):
Your fiirst link does not lead directly to a map. It leads to a general information page on the Canada Land Inventory (CLI, which is also what was used for the previous map I included). The CLI is generally limited to areas not far beyond current agricultural zones, but at the limits it does show severe limitations not based on climate. When you get a corrected link to the map you wished to present, we can discuss it.
Your second link (Mills, 1994) leads to a paper that focuses on north-west Canada and Alaska. Its Table 5 lists areas of "potentially arable soils", and provides the CLI classes. Of the 194 million hectares included in the table, roughly 175 million hectares are in classes 5, 6, and 7. These classes are the "very severe limitations", "marginally suited for forage", and "unsuitable for any agriculture" classes I referred to above.
Mills makes the statement (p121) that "The results shown in table 6 indicate that a number of MLRAs [Major Land Resource Areas] were identified as being limited by the current climate and hence were deemed non-arable". Most of the "improvement" in arable area in Table 6 is based on shifting CLI classifications from classes 5-7 to classes 1-3.
I do not see anything in Mills (1994) to support the claim that the soil limitations are are mis-applied climate limitations. Mills' conclusions appear to be highly dependent on that assumption. I have travelled in northern Manitoba, northern Saskatchewan, northern Alberta, the Mackenzie Valley, and the Yukon. With the exception of the Peace River area, I have seen little land that I think would make a good candidate for agricultural expansion. Rocks, bogs, etc. don't make for good soils, just because the climate changes.
Perhaps you can tell me just what it is about Mills' paper that you find convincing?
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Tom Curtis at 09:48 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Further to my @36, the increase in 16 million hectares for Canada compares to 11 million hectares of arable land in California, and 53 million hectares in Texas. That is, it is just 25% of the arable land in those two states. The loss of more than that 25% in those two states due to increased drought as a result of climate change will result in a net negative balance in arable land between CONUS and Canada.
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Tom Curtis at 09:36 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Bob Loblaw @30, the map you show is of a very restricted portion of Canada. How restricted can be seen in this map of mapped areas for land use capacity from the CLI. Looking for more general information, the most comprehensive I could find was Mills (1994). Peter Mills finds that under a doubled CO2 scenario, arable land in Canada will increase by approximately 40%, from 39 to 55 million hectares. He does not that may be accompanied by a loss of arable land in the US or Southern Canada due to reduced water supply.
To put that into context, assuming an equivalent increase in Russia, based on world wheat production statistics, that would increase potential grain and cereal production by 10%. I believe that means the additional land available will be insufficient to offset loses in production due to heat in warm regions, and loss of water.
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dhf at 08:36 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
The following study gives some idea about the variation between models. It is worthwhile reading the conclusion. Is it obvious to anybody what will happen with crop yields?
North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of 21st Century Projections
"Although many projected changes in NA climate are robust across CMIP5 models, substantial disagreement in some areas helps to define priorities for future research. The sign of mean precipitation changes across the southern U.S. is inconsistent among models. Models disagree on annual mean precipitation changes in the NA monsoon region. Models disagree on snow water equivalent changes on a regional basis, especially in transitional regions where competing effects occur due to greater snowfall and warming temperatures. In the southeastern U.S., the multimodel mean diurnal temperature range (DTR) signal is rather weak, accompanied by larger variance among the models. The western U.S. is characterized by large intermodel variability in the number of frost days in the Western U.S., where multimodel mean decreases in frost days (greater than 70 days in RCP8.5) are also largest. Models do not agree on how intraseasonal variability will change over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which may have implications for future modulation of hurricane activity. Projected changes in seasonal mean Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity are inconsistent among models, which disagree on the sign and amplitude of changes in environmental factors that modulate hurricane activity. Models are highly inconsistent in projecting how the ENSO teleconnection to NA will change."
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:16 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Again, Donny... First, you should drop the snark. Second, you should provide sources for your claims, as everyone else here is doing.
You've still not supported your statement that, "[T]he models have said a lot of things over the past 15 years.... a lot of which have been revised over the years because of inaccuracies."
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Donny at 07:55 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Bob.... try to follow me here...of course there are areas now that aren't suitable. ... this is primarily due to temperature! We are talking about when the climate Shifts!
Moderator Response:[PS] Please provide supporting evidence for this assertion and that areas can become suitable in the timescale of climate change.
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John Hartz at 07:43 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny:
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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John Hartz at 07:41 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
All: Donny's most recent comment has been deleted.
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chrisd3 at 07:06 AM on 11 August 2014The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
Re my #60, maybe it is Cowtan & Way after all. I was only familiar with the long-term dataset, the one that uses kriging.
Is "HADCRUT4 hybrid" actually C&W's HadCRUT4-UAH hybrid?
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Dan Smith at 06:53 AM on 11 August 2014CO2 effect is saturated
That clarifies things. Thank you all very much for your thorough explanations.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:09 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny@24:
No, climate is not the only difference. Your ignorance is blatantly obvious - or you are just trolling.
Here is a link to a report titled "Mapping the Quality of Land For Agriculture In Western Canada".
Figure 12 in that report is the following:
Classes 1, 2, and 3 (shaded black) are "good". Classes 4 and 5 are "severe" and "very severe" limitations. Class 6 is "marginally suitable for forage crops", and class 7 is "unsuitable for any agricultural use".
Current agriculture already fills the "good" areas. There is absolutely no way that a climate shift will cause soil changes in anything other than geological time scales.
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Tom Dayton at 04:01 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny, I have responded to your citation of Spencer's "models are wrong" graph on a thread more appropriate than this one: "Models are Unreliable."
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Tom Dayton at 03:58 AM on 11 August 2014Models are unreliable
Responding on this appropriate thread, to Donny's comment on an inappropriate thread:
Spencer followed up his claim that you linked, with another claim this time about "90 models" but likewise severely flawed. Hotwhopper clearly explained Spencer's biggest...um, "mistake"...of playing loose and fast with baselines. There is also the issue of Spencer falsely giving the impression that the RSS and UAH satellite trends are consistent.
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villabolo at 03:56 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny @20,
This is what portions of Siberia look like. Try farming that with or without heavy equipment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKyRHDFKEXQ
Moderator Response:[JH] Activated link.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:56 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny @23... Again, with Risbey, you fail to even grasp what you originally stated.
Again, you said, "However the models have said a lot of things over the past 15 years.... a lot of which have been revised over the years because of inaccuracies."
1) The models have not said "a lot of things over the past 15 years." The models have been relatively unchanged over the past 15 years.
2) The models have also not been "revised over the years because of inaccuracies." Models are coded based on known physics, they're not just plugging in random numbers to try to make things fit. Model outputs are the emergent results of the underlying physics, plain and simple.
Now, again, I would request that you retract your inaccurate statements.
Moderator Response:[PS] Please put all replies concerning "reliability of models" on the appropriate thread in the followup that Tom Dayton has provided above. Debate works better to when you stick to one point at a time and substantiate your claims. Failure to do you will be treated as just trolling and be deleted.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:43 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny @21... Roy Spencer's post shows absolutely nothing supporting the statement that, "[T]he models have said a lot of things over the past 15 years.... a lot of which have been revised over the years because of inaccuracies."
The models state what they've always been stating. Climate modelers regularly improve their methods, but those have resulted in only very minor difference. In the article you post, Roy is only discussing the discrepancy between models and satellite data, where it's just as reasonable to assume that it's the satellite data that is getting it wrong.
Also note, Roy is improperly centering the comparison between the models and the satellite data by arbitrarily chosing the start point of the data.
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michael sweet at 03:21 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny,
Please provide a reference to support your wild claim that a significant area of forest in Canada can be converted into farmland to replace California and Texas. Provide a cite to show boreal forest will covert to farmland on a human time scale. You have yet to provide a single reference to support your wild claims. You obviously know nothing about soils or you would answer Bob Laidlaw's question.
Donny should be required to provide data to support his wild claims. People who make uninformed claims only add to the noise, they do not add to the discussion.
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Donny at 03:08 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Bob.... the boreal forest soil diffiencies are climate driven.....
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Donny at 02:39 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Here is another study and question for Mr Honeycutt. ... why would Risbey et al (2014) be studying model simulation results with regard to ENSO and throwing around the term ocean heat uptake... if all models have been doing such a stellar job? Seems like they are trying to figure out where the expected surface heat went.....and why the predictions are off.
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Bob Loblaw at 02:20 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny:
Sure, there is lots of land in Canada north of current farming belts.
Some of us that can read maps can also read soil maps. Care to back up your flippant comment with some information to demonstrate that you know something about the soils in those "huge tracks [sic] of land"? I'll give you a hint: if you look in the prairie provinces, you'll find that current agricultural zones pretty much stop at the border between the grasslands and boreal forest. Further north than that, the soils are not very good. Can you demonstrate a single area in Canada where the northern regions have good soil for agriculture, so that shifting climate zones are not a problem for relocating farms?
You're long on opinion, but awfully short on information.
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nospacesallowed at 02:16 AM on 11 August 2014Facts can convince conservatives about global warming – sometimes
I agree with Mal. Even if you left it at "I think Global Warming is happening and a problem because the best global warming scientists (In the NAS) think it is a problem." that still would not be an argument from authority. An argument from authority only applies if the authority is not an expert on that subject matter, the claim is outside their field, there is no agreement within the field, the person is significantly biased, the area is not a legitimate discipline, or we don't identify the authority.
I don't think anyone is about to tell you that they don't have to worry about their cancer because believing their doctor is relying on an argument from authority.
TLDR, relying on expert opinions is not an argument from authority. -
chrisd3 at 02:02 AM on 11 August 2014The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
I haven't been able to locate the downloadable data for the dataset identified as "HadCRUT4 hybrid". Does anyone have a link?
Initially I thought this might actually be Cowtan and Way, but it doesn't seem to be.
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Donny at 01:46 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
However. ... this is a compilation of models. ... that don't seem to have done so well. .. www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-the-view-from-space/
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Donny at 01:10 AM on 11 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Ma Rodger... I was responding flippantly to a non scientific jab with regard to where the new farming land would come from. There are huge tracks of land to the north of current farming belts... like southern Canada and across Asia. .... but anyone here can look at a map and see that. But rather than discuss these issues people like Rob Honey will probably ask me to find a study proving there is land in southern Canada.
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dhf at 21:50 PM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Another action that would increase food security and reduce the number of undernourished would be to stop using food for fuel.
It's Final — Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use
To me is is unethical to use food for fuel. I also find it peculiar that we did not figure out upfront that using food for fuel would reduce the amount of crop availabel for food and increase food prices.
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MA Rodger at 20:07 PM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny @11.
For myself, I feel you are being asked to produce too much by the commenters here. It is correct that a troll is more than somebody who holds a contrary opinion. However you do manage to make some egregiously troll-like statements here. Take, for instance, your reply to the flippant question "Where is the new farmland going to come from, under the glaciers in Greenland?" You reply:-
"and yes we know that Greenland supported crops not that long ago. .... hence the name."
This outlandish assertions raises some big questions. Of course, Greenland is a big island, four-times the size of France. But 81% of it is covered with a permanent icecap. How much of this ice is going to melt away by 2050? And how is that area of exposed bedrock to be converted into productive farmland to help feed the world, again by 2050 (that being the subject of discussion)?
And your assertion that Greenland was named thus because it "supported crops not long ago," flies in the face of the usual interpretation of the naming. (That usual interpretation runs " That summer Eirek went to settle that land which he had found, and which he called Greenland, for he said that many men would desire to visit it if he gave the land a good name.") So, on what basis do you dismiss this usual interpretation? -
renewable guy at 19:22 PM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/water-and-conflict-in-syr_b_5404774.htmla
Drought has driven the already tensions in the area higher contributing to the fighting. Like California, they are overusing their groundwater supplies to make up for the drought.
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Ashton at 14:38 PM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Michael Sweet. Tom Curtis @14 has replied to your condemnation of Steve McIntyre in what can only be described as a very gracious post. You suggest
"Ashton, perhaps you could copy this data to Climate Audit and tell us his reply".
Tom Curtis has done exactly that and has entered into a fairly extensive dialogue with Steve McIntyre that you might like to read. It does appear at the moment to be an unfinished dialogue.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] Note that any further comments on that subject are off-topic and will likely result in deletion. Thread-derailment is frowned upon here, but you are being given the benefit of doubt in this instance.
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Mal Adapted at 11:31 AM on 10 August 2014Facts can convince conservatives about global warming – sometimes
Donny, if you have formed those opinions without expert command of the scientific arguments against them, then you are a denier. On a complex issue like climate, encompassing as it does all of the natural sciences, a genuine skeptic who is not himself a specialist will acknowledge that there are actual experts, who know more about the subject than he does. A skeptical but self-aware non-expert will reserve judgement at least until he knows what the real experts think.
A genuine skeptic also recognizes that some experts are more credible than others. One who is scientifically meta-literate knows that the US National Academy of Sciences collectively represents as high a level of expertise as any scientific body in the world. This is not the argument from authority, it's the argument that unless you've put the time in to become an authority yourself, what's good enough for the NAS ought to be good enough for you.
The NAS and the Royal Society of the UK have jointly published a 36-page booklet titled "Climate Change: Evidence and Causes":
nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more-resources-on-climate-change/climate-change-evidence-and-causes/
The booklet, aimed at an educated lay audience, addresses 20 common questions about anthropogenic climate change including yours, with answers drawn from the combined expertise of two of the world's most respected scientific societies. You don't need to accept their conclusions with full certainty, but rejecting them without showing the world why they're wrong makes you a denier.
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nigelj at 09:03 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny, you say "I disagree with the hypothesis that dry spots will necessarily be dryer and wet wetter."
Big deal. You give no well articulated reasons.
This is also not "just" a hypothesis. Research has already found an increasing incidence of both dry and wet periods over the last 30 years, exactly as you would expect with global warming. For example research by James Hansen on climate data over the last 30 years. You can find this on the NASA website.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warming-links.html
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Tom Curtis at 09:03 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
michael sweet @9, I cannot accept the thanks, and must revise my condemnation of McIntyre who did look up the relevant data. I have expressed my apology to him at Climate Audit, and will do so again here. McIntyre in fact looked up both the 2008 and 2012 reports from the FAO, and discusses primarilly the change in estimates between them, due in part to a revised methodology in 2012. That change along with changes in estimates of population, population height and dietary energy supply reverse the trend in world hunger from 2002-2007 as previously reported in FAO reports. The turn around is a net change of 53 million between 2011 and 2012, with a further 22 million change between the 2008 and 2011 reports. The change consists primarilly in an increase in estimated hunger in 2002, but with a decline by 35 million in estimated hunger in 2007. Both figures were further revised upwards in 2013, by 38 million for 2002 and and 8 million in 2007 in the 2013 report, while the 2012 figures were revised down by 25 million. (All years are approximate because the FAO does not report for single years, and changes the range of years reported from report to report).
McIntyre did lead of his article with the discrepancy with the 2013 report, which is not something for which the IPCC can be blamed. He also compared the world figures (reported by the IPCC) with the undeveloped nation only figures (shown in the graph above). That did not justify Ashton above not mentioning the rest of his article, nor my unaccountable (except for extreme tiredness) failure to notice it on my first read through.
Finally, McIntyre certainly quotes the IPCC out of context. The IPCC wrote:
"Many definitions of food security exist and these have been the subject of much debate. As early as 1992, Maxwell and Smith (1992) reviewed over 180 items discussing concepts and definitions, and more definitions have been formulated since (Defra, 2006). While many earlier definitions centred on food production, more recent definitions highlight access to food, in keeping with the 1996 World Food Summit definition (FAO, 1996) that food security is met when ‘all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. World-wide attention on food access was given impetus by the food ‘price spike’ in 2007-08, triggered by a complex set of long- and short-term factors (von Braun and Torero, 2009). FAO’s provisional estimates show that, in 2007, 75 million more people were added to the total number of undernourished relative to 2003–2005 (FAO, 2008); other studies report a lower number (Headey and Fan, 2010). More than enough food is currently produced per capita to feed the global population, yet about 870 million people remained hungry in 2012 (FAO et al., 2012). The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent that they will do so in the future
(Figure 7-1)."(My emphasis)
McIntyre only quotes the two sentences after the bolded section. Most probably, in the context of the entire paragraph, the first sentence that McIntyre quotes, and that he dissects, is intended to illustrate the "impetus" to "World-wide attention on food access". As such, it is an appropriate citation although the sentence containing it is insufficiently clear. It may also be that the IPCC does not accept FAO revisions which are at odds with other data, a fact that may explain the FAO taking time to respond to criticisms of its index in the 2013 report. Notably, the FAO 2013 writes:
"Moreover, given that both the probability distribution f(x) and the threshold level in (1) are associated with the representative individual of the population – that is, a statistical construct corresponding to an individual of average age, sex, stature and physical activity level – they do not represent, respectively, the empirical distribution of per capita food in the population and a threshold level that is meaningful for any actual individual in the
population."(My emphasis)
The underlined sentence indicates that if, in a given nation, the proportion of food eaten by one sector of the population increases, with a consequent decrease for another portion of the population, this will not be reflected as in increase in hunger in the FAO data. That is significant in that there was a sharp increase in food prices in 2007/8 that is likely to have caused such a shift in consumption habits and may have caused a spike in hunger that is not captured by the FAO methodology. However, while I can see this as a possibility, I do not know enough about the subject to know if it was actually the case, ie, whether the wide spread increase in hunger reported at the time was accurate, or the currently revised figures of the FAO are more accurate.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:01 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny said... "However the models have said a lot of things over the past 15 years.... a lot of which have been revised over the years because of inaccuracies."
I'm also going to formally make a request that you substantiate this statement before you make attempts to post anything else. Until you either substantiate or retract this statement I'm going to suggest the moderators delete any additional comments.
It's a very serious claim that you've made here and it needs to be rectified before moving forward.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:54 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny... The problem is that you're disagreeing without even knowing what you're talking about. You're presenting a "different opinion" that is not based on any science.
As the saying goes, you're entitled to your own opinion, but you're not entitled to your own facts.
If you can't find any research that supports your opinion then, well, that opinion isn't worth very much. My suggestion would be to do your research. If you can find something that supports your position, then present it. If you can't find anything, you should probably consider changing your position to conform to the available facts.
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New Study, Same Result - Greenhouse Gases Dominate Global Warming
clarification: As you did correctly summarize in your post, Jones et al's main conclusion was that GHGs dominate the observed warming. But that statement of having cause 200% of observed warming is just bad wording. Thanks again.
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Donny at 08:40 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
I'm not sure you should call me a troll because I disagree with your opinion. However the models have said a lot of things over the past 15 years.... a lot of which have been revised over the years because of inaccuracies. Yes heat can dry areas out.... but it will also produce a larger percentage of the globe to be covered in water thus increasing water vapor and cooling from evaporation. Why do you get mad that I would want to explore different opinions? I disagree with the hypothesis that dry spots will necessarily be dryer and wet wetter. I also think it is funny that the moderator tries to influence opinions. ... instead of just moderating discussion/debate. I am no expert but do have a degree in environmental biology with a interest in weather and climate. Wili... why would you want to censor someone with a different opinion?
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New Study, Same Result - Greenhouse Gases Dominate Global Warming
This line seems to be poorly written: "Overall, Jones et al. (2013) concludes that greenhouse gases have caused between 100% and 200% of the observed global surface warming over the past 60 years"
The other statements seems to accurately portray conslusions of the Jones paper (aerosols and other natural variability caused us to warm slightly less than expected by balancing/off-setting a portion of the GHG-caused energy gain), but your wording above seems to have confused some folks. Thanks.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:35 AM on 10 August 2014Facts can convince conservatives about global warming – sometimes
In addition to the points by NowhereMan,
A denier will also try to claim that the benefit that a portion of the current generation of humanity would have to give up to reduce the impacts on future generations is worth more than the potential consequences that will be faced by the future generations.
This type of 'economic evaluation' is obvious nonsense because it is the same as saying it is OK for a person to benefit from an activity that is likely to create consequences that are only faced by their neighbour. Yet it is done by many who attempt to justify the unacceptable activity they wish to have expand or be prolonged. And the worst of them deliberately overstate the case in favour of the current day trouble-makers and deliberately understate the future consequences. Some even go as far as to claim that what hapopens in the future is less important than what happens today, using Net-Present-Value discounting of future costs.
In addition, there is the presumption that the economy they want, full of unsustainable activity, will magically continue to grow like it did in the past making the future so much wealthier. That is more clear nonsense because none of the actions of today's developed economy they want to prolong or expand will produce any lasting benefit into the future.
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wili at 04:43 AM on 10 August 2014Scientists lambast The Australian for misleading article on deep ocean cooling
Thanks.
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wili at 04:35 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny at 7--I shouldn't engage with a troll (should these be aloud on this site?) but really, your statement here is just stunningly...well, let's just call it simplistic. Every global warming model I know of (and just common sense, if you bother to think for more than a few seconds) predicts that some places (mostly those that are already rather wet) will get wetter, while other places (especially those that are already dry or in the interior of continenents) will get drier. Heat, after all, dries things out, and where predominant weather patterns don't bring ample rain, that drying will be intense. Of course, many places will (already are) swing between more and more intense drying spells, and every more severe downpours--both very bad for vegetation (and most every other form of life).
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michael sweet at 04:13 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Tom,
Thank you for looking up the data on McIntyre. It is typical for him to produce shoddy reports and claim others have made the mistakes. Will he audit his own report and rewrite it to reflect the actual data available at the time?
Ashton, perhaps you could copy this data to Climate Audit and tell us his reply.
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michael sweet at 04:03 AM on 10 August 2014Air pollution and climate change could mean 50% more people going hungry by 2050, new study finds
Donny,
Your post hardly rates a response but I will give you one more post. I have a Masters Degree in Organic Chemistry. I teach chemistry at the College level (google Hillsborough Community College Chemistry). I noticed that you post no qualifications yourself. On Skeptical Science people are usually judged by the quality of their arguments and data, not their degrees. So far you have produced no data or links that support your wild claims. The OP supports my claims that food prices will change. It has been pointed out above that the OP did not consider drought (or sea level rise) in their analysis. This makes the decrease they predict a better than best case analysis.
It is well known that the Vikings raised only cattle, it was too cold to raise plant crops (potatoes and cabbage are now, for the first time, raised in Greenland). It was called "Greenland" as a sales tactic, some people are still fooled by this. Under the ice is only rock, as with most of the Arctic. Read Collapse by Jahred Diamond.
Increased food prices in the USA hardly need to be referenced but here is the first of many articles how AGW related drought has caused price increases in beef.
It has been predicted for decades that AGW will cause wet areas to get wetter and dry areas to become dryer. This includes a single location becoming dryer during the dry season and wetter in the wet season. The increased temperature will drive water cycle faster than in the past. Your claim that you are not aware of this indicates that you have not done your homework.
You have yet to provide any data or links that support your wild claims. Please remember that an unsupported claim can be dismissed with a hand wave.
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NowhereMan at 02:29 AM on 10 August 2014Facts can convince conservatives about global warming – sometimes
Donny, here's one unofficial answer to your questions. You might be a denier if:
- You suggest that natural variations in climate represent a reason not to worry about human-caused climate variations.
- You point out that climate is and always has been changing without examining the rate of such changes and why the rate of change is important.
- You state that "CO2 concentration is only a small part of the complex system that drives temperature" as if this information is new to climate scientists and is not incorporated into their models.
My personal experience in this field suggests one other indication that you're a denier:
- You probably are a denier if you pose the above claims in a manner that gives you an escape if these claims are shot down: "I was only asking questions!"
Of course, maybe you're really not a denier, and so this doesn't apply to you. But if that's the case, you might want to modify your rhetorical style a bit. Being upfront about what you're arguing for, what you think you know, and where your information comes from is a good way to avoid unfairly being labeled as a "denier".
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