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Jim Hunt at 20:20 PM on 9 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
As one example of the damage to infrastructure, here's Network Rail's time lapse video of their attempts to repair the main Great Western railway line at Dawlish:
http://youtu.be/tWGxuPF7wNU
At around 28 secs you can see the impact of the next big storm that arrived on February 14/15. The current estimate for the trains to start running again is April 4th. According to the leader of Plymouth City Council "the rail disruption was costing the city £5 million a day".Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link.
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Tom Curtis at 15:43 PM on 9 March 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10B
chriskoz @2, 1 in 100 year floods happen frequently. That is becuase they have a return period of 100 years for a given location, but there are far more than 100 locations on Earth such that their precipitation events are effectively independant. I haven't looked carefully at the statistics, but there are probably 1 in 100 year floods every year, somewhere on Earth.
For comparison, the 2011 Brisbane flood came of the back of rainfall with a return period of about 100-200 years averaged over the Brisbane River catchment from Sun through Tues, with a follow rainfall for tuesday with a return period also about 100- 200 years. That is, we had two >100 year rainfall events in just one week. Some individual stations recorded rainfall with return periods of 1 in 2000, and the Wivenhoe release that triggered excess flooding came from a 1 in 2000 rainfall event directly onto the dam (ie, without any chance of buffering of the flow by forest, etc).
This is not to detract from the suffering of the people of Christchurch, who have copped an absolute hammering over the last few years. They certainly have my sympathy, and I agree that the floods in Christchurch should have wider reporting - certainly in Australia.
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DSL at 15:29 PM on 9 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Bobki, general slaps-together of standard denial talking points usually get deleted. Take your strongest point to the appropriate thread (left menu).
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John Hartz at 14:43 PM on 9 March 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10B
A follow-up article to the one linked to by chriskoz above:
Global warming warning after ChCh floods by Adrien Taylor, 3News, Mar 6, 2014
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Bobki52 at 14:11 PM on 9 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Ouch... I've been crushed.
Moderator Response:[DB] You are welcome to use the Search function in the upper left portion of every page to find the most appropriate page to place your individual points of discussion on. Note that comments consisting of simple assertion of a myth already debunked by one of the main articles, and which contain no relevant counter argument or evidence from the peer reviewed literature constitutes trolling rather than genuine discussion. As such they will be deleted. If you think our debunking of one of those myths is in error, you are welcome to discuss that on the relevant thread, provided you give substantial reasons for believing the debunking is in error. As constructed, your removed comments constitute Gish Gallops and do not merit inclusion in these discussion threads.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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chriskoz at 14:08 PM on 9 March 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10B
I'm surprised no media (in my country and in US) seem to care about:
1 in 100y flood in CHC(perhaps the Malaysian Air disaster prompted it but I still argue that "1 in 100y" events deserve far more global attention than airplane crashes)
People in CHC saying 0.5m SLR contributed to the event which may now be happening every few years or so. I wonder how come they're exagerating SLR to "0.5m"? The asnwer is that the recent earthquake that destrroyed the cathedral, among other things caused the city to "sink" a little bit, therefore increasing the effective local SLR.
Moderator Response:[JH] CHC = Christchurch, New Zealand
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chriskoz at 12:40 PM on 9 March 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10B
Very interesting news about the link of California drought and loss of arctic ice, that cannot be missed:
Climatologist Who Predicted California Drought 10 Years Ago Says It May Soon Be ‘Even More Dire’
the title sais it all. Interestingly, Jenifer Francis is not the only (or not even the first) person to have found how Arctic Ice melt contributes to extreme events at mid-latitudes.
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Chris Snow at 09:03 AM on 9 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
John (#5) and Magma (#7 and #8).
This amusing George Monbiot column has a bit more about Jonathan Powell.
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scaddenp at 05:52 AM on 9 March 2014Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
jsmith, why do you think that it would be a good idea to expand the article with this particular article? (Especially in light of a critical comment follow-up and more recent papers also critical of methodology). Why do think that one is important rather than the deluge of more recent papers on the subject?
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Paul D at 03:18 AM on 9 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
Bob forgot to mention that everyone contributes and helps for free.
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Paul D at 03:08 AM on 9 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
I'll point out John that Hambledon has a 'history' of ground water flooding. However that doesn't detract from the fact that greater frequency of flood events and extreme weather will make things worse.
My understanding is that in Hambledon before WWII, the kerbs were raised higher than today, so that the roads acted like rivers/canals durring rainy times. The kerbs were lowered durring WWII to allow the passing through of large numbers of big military vehicles (eg. D Day preparations).
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Paul D at 02:50 AM on 9 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
John M and all that read this...
Was listening to Inside Science on the BBC iPlayer this week and there was a mention of the ClimatePrediction people doing a citizens science project to find out if there were any relationships between the recent UK flooding/extreme weather and climate change.If you want to participate, you download the climate model and do a run. The results are being collated and published live.
Here is the link to sign up for the project:
http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/weatherhome-2014/
They say they need to run two large ensembles of weather simulations and that requires public help. -
Jim Hunt at 01:20 AM on 9 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
As a resident of Soggy South West England, I've been following this particular story with interest for quite some time. I'm not sure what I can usefully add to John's in depth article. Perhaps this (slightly cloudy) Landsat 8 image of the Somerset Levels?
For any other locals in here, the town of Bridgwater is visible top left.
Moderator Response:[DB] Reduced image width to 475.
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Chris8616 at 20:51 PM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
UK storms caused ‘greatest tree loss in a generation’ (March 2014)
Video: UK Minister: Climate Change a National Security Crisis
Video: Ancient 5,000-Year-Old Forest Unearthed by UK Storms (They later discovered these tree stumps were 10.000 years of age).
UK: Wettest Winter In 250 Years (Infographic)
UK Floods 2014 Could Last for Months + 1.6M Homes at Risk for Flooding (Covers the unprecedented groundwater flooding and precipitation patterns)
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Sapient Fridge at 19:49 PM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Today's BBC Science page is remarkable focussed on the recent floods, and climate change in general (archived here). I spot at least 10 flood or climate change related stories!
I think there is a dawning realisation in the UK that this winter's weather was simply not normal.
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John Mason at 19:33 PM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
So it does did! I know the winter seemed to go on for a long time, but not that long! Thanks for spotting it :)
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Leto at 13:25 PM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Typo: Graphic for Feb 2014 says "2015".
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chriskoz at 09:08 AM on 8 March 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10A
For those down under BOM & CSIRO just released 2014 state of climate report
Of my particular interest is Monthly temperature anomaly (standardised) on page 5 (AKA Jim Hansen's climate dice). They show the frequency of 2-sigma hot events in OZ increased 5 times in 1999-2013, as opposed to Hansen's baseline 1950-1980.
So the OZ dice is loded about the same and Hansen's global dice. And more importantly, the warming "did not stop" over OZ land since 1998. The negative consequences from precipitation changes are looking to be higher than global average IMO.
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grindupBaker at 08:55 AM on 8 March 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10A
Wol #6 I suppose it's on-topic because there's a non-science "How money..." posted. You don't say the venue but if it's comments against blogs & videos then IMO my comments aren't to educate or change the opinions of those specific persons, rather I am, you are, giving your opinions to the public who might see them, unless they get moderated like these two... Cheer up. Remember a geologic second ago fully state-sanctioned killing of persons doing science and giving their opinions sometimes existed, so this big money is comparatively trivial. The "deeper level" seems too deep for this venue. Future humans will do whatever. Each present human decides what makes a life, like fun learning stuff, or perhaps genetic imperative just pushes robots. Too deep for me so lets get back to integrating the atmosphere to quantify its LWR.
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Tom Curtis at 08:23 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Composer 99 @63, the Ontario 2013 LTEP (page 6) states:
"• The 2013 LTEP cost and price forecasts are lower
than previously forecast in 2010.
• Significant ratepayer savings will be realized as a
result of reduced Feed-in Tariff (FIT) prices, the
ability to dispatch wind generation, the amended
Green Energy Investment Agreement, and the
decision to defer new nuclear."Later, they show a graph comparing current projections of the "total cost of the electricity service" to those from the 2010 LTEP (Fig 6, page 15), which shows the 2013 projection reduced from 21.4 to 17.6 Billion, a reduction equivalent to 6.7% per annum compounded over the last three years. In Fig 7, they then show the changes in the typical forecast residential bill:
The reduction from a forecast 154 to a forecast 125 dollars per month represents a compounded 7.2% per annum over three years.
The OCEB is the Ontario Clean Energy Benefit. The 2010 LTEP shows a forecast price for residential consumption of 800 kWh of $123 without the OCEB ($115.20 with) for 2011. The 2013 forecast respresents a compounded 6% increase without, and 4.2% with the OCEB. Those values overstate the real increase, as they are in nominal dollars. In any event, over the first three years of the plan, prices have increased slower than originally forecast by they 2010 LTEP, let alone by Fox and Gallant.
Speaking of Fox and Gallant, they quote the 2010 LTEP as saying:
"Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP), announced by the Liberal Party on November 23, 2010, states,
'Over the next 20 years, prices for Ontario families and small businesses will be relatively predictable. The consumer rate will increase by about 3.5% annually over the length of the long-term plan. Over the next five years, however, residential electricity prices are expected to rise by about 7.9% annually (or 46% over five years).'"
Figure 15 (page 60), however, shows a real increase of 61.4% from 2010-2030, ie, an increase at a compounding rate of 2.6% per annum. The 3.5% quoted is for the nominal rate, and therefore includes inflation. Because the increase is front loaded, and indeed, because real prices are projected fall in real terms over the last 9 years of the plan, compounded rates do not reflect the overall cost of the transition.
Finally, on a side note, I questioned Fox and Gallant's costings as not including savings from reduced investment in fossil fuel generation. Russ challenged that on the basis that those savings had been included in the LTEP. Perhaps Russ could quote the section of the plan that discusses how those savings were factored in?
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Magma at 08:17 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Correction, Jonathan Powell, not John.
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Magma at 08:16 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
John (comment #5), you can see a photo of the John Powell in question (who seems to be the source or conduit of much misinformation) in this four-year-old Express article:
Although some UK 'detective work' might uncover further information on Mr. Powell, I suspect it would be the same story we've seen before, just a hack for hire. His Vantage Weather Services website is astonishingly thin and uninformative:
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Tom Curtis at 07:19 AM on 8 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
My apologies to Bob Lacatena. Obviously it was he rather than Dikran I intended to thank @2 above.
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Leto at 07:18 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
"I don't plan to waste more time on it than I already have."
JH, I think Russ's "it" here means the "oversimplified cartoon", not this "relatively obscure blog."
Moderator Response:[JH] Whatever.
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MA Rodger at 06:49 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Just considering the rainfall over SE England, as a 60-day period it was record-breaking and by quite a margin. (And bear in mind that winter is not the rainiest season, although it can contain the rainiest episode of the year).
I'm of the opinion that this 60-day rainfall is so unlikely that it consitiutes proof of climate change, coz otherwise I reckon a fair estimate of this event on its own would make it a one-in-20,000 year event. And look more closely - 3 of the 4 highest are in the last 14 years, as are 2 of the 4 lowest. Rainfall appears to be becoming more variable.
UK weather used to change by the week. For the last 3 or 4 years it seems to change by the season.
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John Mason at 05:38 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Ben (comment #3) - I'd be interested to learn of the ultimate source of those 'forecasts' that appeared in The Netherlands. Did they come from a local source, or from farther afield?
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Andy Skuce at 05:14 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Chriskoz@57 She likes to use the double-negation language
Just to nitpick, I counted three negations, in the cartoon quote, in eleven words.
I don't disagree with your main point, though, not eschewing double negation, isn't the worst way of confusing readers.
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shoyemore at 04:50 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
BTW, as an inhabitant of the light green part of the above map of the "British Isles" (a name we seldom use around here), Ireland (as in Republic of) also had its wettest winter since records began.
One observatory on the west coast recorded 843mm of rain, 180% of its average. Being less densely populated than the UK, the impact of flooding and coastal erosion is less, but still financially significant.
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Ben Lankamp at 04:00 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
In The Netherlands we had to endure the news reports on the approaching 'icy armageddon', or 'horror winter' as it was called here, as well. My response to these reports was published in several newspapers and also on my employers site (where it received 33k+ views). You can read it here in English through Google Translate.
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jsmith at 03:45 AM on 8 March 2014Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
It might be a good idea to expand this article with information from this study. It starts out by saying that the earth has, in fact, not warmed as much as expected, and says that there are two reasons why:
1. the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high, and
2. the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols.
So aerosols explain some of the predictions-observations discrepancy, but not all of it.
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KR at 03:32 AM on 8 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
r.pauli - I believe the aim was similar to that seen in the ClimateGate hack. To take private conversations, including the hyperbole and sarcasm seen in discussions among friends and colleagues, and to quote them out of context. And using those out of context lines to claim nefarious intent and ill will on the part of forum participants, a very basic ad hominem logical fallacy attack on the science presented by SkS.
This underhanded approach is hardly new:
"If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him." - Cardinal Richelieu
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shoyemore at 03:29 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Here is a disquieting account of how the Daily Mail, possibly the most climate-denying media operation in these islands, in a heartbeat turns from climate denial to a homophobic smear of the Environmental Agency's Director (who happens to be openly gay). The rediculous claim is he spent more on "gay pride tea mugs" than on a few extra sandbags that would protect people's homes, yet it gets lurid headlines.
Longstanding denier Christopher Booker weighs in with a whine on behalf of the people of Somerset - how much did Mr Booker think about the people of Somerset when he was calling climate scientsts "fraudsters"?
A word to the wise - as matters worsen, do not expect those who deny the evidence to change heart - they will shift the goalposts, get more strident and angry, and demans heads on platters.
http://climatedenial.org/2014/03/04/how-climate-change-messengers-become-blamed-for-the-floods/
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:46 AM on 8 March 2014The Editor-in-Chief of Science Magazine is wrong to endorse Keystone XL
Andy @ 16,
Paul Ryan and so many others continue to try to claim that actions related to the continued burning of fossil fuels are helpful, or solutions.
Prolonging unsustainable activity, particularly the harmful ones like burning fossil fuels, is not a solution to anything other than satisfying the desire of a few already fortunate people to get more benefit for themselves in their moment. The only potential redeeming value of such an activity would be to ensure that all benefits are effectively dedicated to the rapid sustainable improvement of conditions for the least fortunate. No one who is already fairly fortunate should benefit in any way. The fortunate should already be only acting and benefiting in truly sustainable ways and be competing to develop even better sustainable ways of enjoying their moment of life on this amazing planet.
The essential need for the rapid development of a sustainable better future for everyone and all other life needs to always be the context of any of these discussions. If an action isn't leading to that required rapid development it is just entertainment, and as such it better not risk harm to any life, other that the risk-taker fully aware of the potential consequences of the risk they choose to take and certain that only they would suffer any consequences.
The battle over control of Ukraine is just like all the other major conflicts. People with attitudes other than the desire to rapidly develop a sustainable better future for all are fighting each other to gain control everywhere that there are opportunities to obtain momentary wealth from an unsustainable and damaging extraction or consumption of limited non-renewable resources. And they also collectively fight against their biggest threat, a growing better understanding of how unacceptable their unsustainable and damaging desires are.
The greatest threats to the global economy, and any part of the global economy, and humanity, are those who want to pursue benefit from unsustainable and damaging activities. It is as simple as that.
That clear irrefutable fact needs to be kept ion the forefront of any discussion. And when you try to do that you will clearly see how vicious and irrational many people are. The desire to get more for themselves any way they can get away with makes them what Albert Camus referred to when he said "A man without ethics is a wild beast loosed upon this world".
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Maggnum at 02:45 AM on 8 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
I, too, would like to add my thanks to you all for the hard work and effort you've put into this site. The information it contains has been a godsend for dealing with the small but presistant denialist cadre! Please keep up the good work and know that your efforts are appreciated not only around the world, but even in this little corner of Western Canada, where denialism is almost as required as hockey!
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:26 AM on 8 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
The only frustrating part of this series of articles is, I know we're going to get to the end and we're still not going to know "who dunnit." [sigh]
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StBarnabas at 02:22 AM on 8 March 2014The Extraordinary UK Winter of 2013-14: a Timeline of Watery Chaos
Thanks for this nice article.
The Express is a rag. Both it and the Daily Mail live up to the gutter press name. When I first came to England I was horrified by the quality of most of the tabloids. Sadly their circulation is much greater than that of the Guardian - which always has been my UK paper of choice and has a proud history in quality reporting in matters of science, including climate change. I live in Northumberland and work in Newcastle upon Tyne. The weather has been very windy here but no wetter than average. It is very different down south.
The good news is that the Tory party aspects of whom had been drifting towards climate denial insanity seems to be getting a reality check. Even some right wing members such as Michael Gove and Michael Howard have expressed concerns on climate change. There seems to be little talk of once in 200 year events as we had in Northumberland in 2008, but an acceptance that climate change will make such extreme events more likely.
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r.pauli at 02:16 AM on 8 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
Thank you so much for all your hard work. This is so important to the world.
I have to wonder about the hacker's payload - what is the target or goal? Is it destruction? Not credit card numbers, but could it be just names and data? Or is the value to a hacker boasting rights over access, or is it ideological? It is not directly financial unless this is a financed attack.
What a dark mystery. I am constantly amazed at how complex, varied and dark can be aspects of climate science. Now even more interesting. Thanks so much for sharing news of the battle.
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KR at 02:03 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Russ R. - My apologies on missing the change of reference that scaddenp introduced, mea culpa.
I feel that Tom Curtis has a good point about that reference though, in that Curry is speaking of far more than geoengineering. And that her statements there are again representative of Currys tendency to overstate uncertainties, dismiss the knowledge that we have, and advocate for a "do-nothing" approach. All of which really supports the original post cartoon - Curry just doesn't seem to understand risk management, central estimates, or the equal possibilities of best-case and extreme outcomes.
Curry appears (IMO) to have abandoned science in favor of ideological advocacy, public notoriety, and frequent appearances before congressional committees. Which I really don't understand - I've eaten at several of the House/Senate cafeterias, and believe me the food and coffee there are _not_ a sufficient reward for debasing the science...
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Albatross at 01:39 AM on 8 March 2014Peer-reviewed papers by Skeptical Science authors
Hi Michael,
Thanks. You might be interested to know that the above list is not even a comprehensive one. There are more quite a few more papers out there authored by SkS team members, but for a variety of reasons we decided against listing them.
The SkS team members are very busy behind the scenes working on new research, so expect more to come :) -
Composer99 at 01:23 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Thanks for the clarification, Russ R.
(I should also clarify my comment #61: after reading through Fox & Gallant 2011, I was not going to echo CBDunkerson exactly, since CBDunkerson does not appear to be interested in further engagement with Russ R. Rather, the echo was the point that the Fox & Gallant paper and the other quotes were themselves projections.
On the specific matter of Ontario power bills, the projections by the Minister, the LTEP, and/or Fox & Gallant could conceivably be corroborated by (a) determining the extent to which Ontario ratepayers' bills have increased since the passage of the Green Energy Act and (b) undertaking attribution analysis to confirm the extent to which such increase is a necessary consequence of the Act - and/or the follow-up LTEP. I attempted a cursory search yesterday without much success.)
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Russ R. at 01:14 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
John Hartz@60,
"All: In a deleted comment, Russ R has stated that he is done posting on this thread."
Not quite. I apologized for violating the SkS Comments Policy as was pointed out in the Moderator's Response @51, and invited you to delete my subsequent comment (a response to scaddenp@52) in which I further violated the excessive repetition policy. (This was not done intentionally, as I posted the comment before seeing the moderator's response).
If however, you're indirectly instructing me to stop posting on this thread, I'll comply.
I still owe CBDunkerson evidence that various costs of mitigation policies are irrecoverable or are locked in for decades. (Assuming CBD actually wants it.)
Moderator Response:[JH] From your deleted comment:
Ultimately, is this a big deal? Not really. It's an oversimplified cartoon on a relatively obscure blog. I don't plan to waste more time on it than I already have.
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Composer99 at 00:19 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Too bad, I had run into some issues downloading the Fox & Gallant paper and only got to reading it late last night. (Although I was just going to echo CBDunkerson, anyway.)
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John Hartz at 00:03 AM on 8 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
All: In a deleted comment, Russ R has stated that he is done posting on this thread.
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Joel_Huberman at 23:40 PM on 7 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 4
What an exciting story! And so well written! Thanks, Bob, for this fascinating account of what, at the time, must have seemed like a horrible nightmare. And thanks to the whole SkS team for what, in my view, is the best site on the Internet!
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CBDunkerson at 22:25 PM on 7 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Russ R, for the record, your statement that you were able to provide "real-world evidence" ("instead of abstract projections") of future costs (i.e. "mitigating global warming") was sufficient to convince me that there was no point in further discussion.
Your subsequent citation of the Fox & Gallant projections has only confirmed that conclusion.
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Tom Curtis at 21:41 PM on 7 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
chriskoz @55, even if Michael Sweet was rejecting the conclusions of Gallant and Fox (2010) (as is likely given his post @56), nothing follows regarding his integrity, nor his compliance with normal SkS standards, despite Russ R's insinuation. Indeed, the direct response to Russ R's question:
"What does SkS call people who refuse to accept peer-reviewed literature and instead cite sources such as Wikipedia, industry PR sites, and newpaper op-eds?"
is that we do not call them anything at all.
Implicit in the question is an assumption that any peer reviewed article must be accepted uncritically. That is not Russ R's opinion, of course, but one by which he misrepresents the regulars at SkS in attributing it to us. Such a standard is automatically contradictory, for many peer reviewed articles contradict each other.
The SkS standard has, and has always been that you need some very solid, indeed, peer reviewed evidence to reject a consensus within the peer reviewed literature.
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chriskoz at 21:17 PM on 7 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
I concur with Tom Curtis@54, that the article characterises Judith Curry accurately. Especially the double-negation part. JC has been shown many times that she recently abandened the science and just plays the "uncertainty games".
Russ R.@37 claim:
Cook and dana1981, [...] are misrepresenting Judith Curry
(emphasis original)
is an absurd, given the welth of examples showing her abuse of double-negation. She likes to use the double-negation language and often contradicts herself in the process. On the other hand, I haven't seen any double-negation statements in IPCC. The cartoon's portrayal of JC as double-nagating obfuscator, is very accurate, in-line with the evidence I linked above.
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michael sweet at 21:12 PM on 7 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Russ,
Fox and Gallant chose to do a worst case analysis of renewables. The cost basis has decreased so much in the past 4 years that ther analysis is no longer valid. I choose an industry site for costs because it is up to date. It was the first of dozens of sites that document that wind and solar power have dramaticly decreased in cost and your reference is dated so that it no longer applies. Anyone who is informed on the subject would know this without a reference.
My Wilipedia reference was to address one of your many unsupported arguments. Here again, anyone who knows anything about the subject knows that fossil fuels transfer much of their cost from electricity onto general funds through health, fire suppression, general pollution etc. I added the reference since you are apparently unaware of these basic facts. While Wikipedia is not peer reviewed, this fact is so basic it does not require much to support the argument. Since you are upset about me citing Wikipedia, what do you call someone who constantly uses his unsupported word for his arguments? You have still not supported the bulk of your post here, in spite of your repeated posts since then and your wild claim that you had copius examples. That is sloganeering and is prohibited at SkS. The moderators have been lenient with you despite your repeated failures to support your wild claims.
My op-ed cite was of an expert that you found and showed that your unsupported word that your increases in electricity were due just to renewable energy was incorrect. The increases are due to multiple causes and not just renewable energy. Once again I have cited an expert and you have your unsupported word. You have provided no evidence that the bulk of your price rise was due to renewables. I also provided a clear cut example of savings due to wind energy. It is too recent an example to get into the peer reviewed data set yet. This is because wind and solar have only in the past two years become useful for solely economic reasons.
It is very tiresome to constantly post against your unsupported word when you are generally incorrect. It is rare for you to provide even a single reference. Since I posted asking you for references, you have made seven posts on this thread and have cited one, outdated, reference. Then you complain that I do not solely use peer reviewed sources for common knowledge. Please provide evidence to support your wild claims.
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chriskoz at 20:48 PM on 7 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Russ R.@51,
If you want to dispute the study's findings, you're welcome to take it up with the authors directly. What does SkS call people who refuse to accept peer-reviewed literature and instead cite sources such as Wikipedia, industry PR sites, and newpaper op-eds?
(about michael sweet @50)
I must opine this statement is a gross misrepresentation (followed by unnecessary personal attack), because michael sweet @50 said:
It is good that you have finally cited data to support one of your positions, even if it is a little out of date. Please link to data to support your other claims
(my emphasis)
which is an indication of actual acceptance of "peer-reviewed literature", contrary to your claim. Perhaps his interpretation of the quoted study ("it is a little out of date") is not the same as your interpretation, but such difference does not mean that he "refuses to accept" the study. Rather than trying to personally attack him, it would be more constructive take your detailed knowledge of the study you apparently have, and prove that your interpretation is right, i.e. provide the data that supports your interpretation. But you instead have chosen to do baseless hand-waving "you're welcome to take it up with the authors directly", followed by personal attack. Such argumentation, I can repeat aftrer Tom Curtis above: "lessens you".
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Tom Curtis at 14:50 PM on 7 March 2014Cartoon: the climate contrarian guide to managing risk
Russ R @51, on the Curry quotation, your response is evasive at best. Curry has clearly indicated an opinion that we do not currently have enough information to justify any sort of policy response requiring explicit reductions in CO2 emissions, the fact that you are evading. If you wish to treat that as irrelevant, then it is about time you started quoting Cook accurately. He does not quote Curry as saying, "We should do nothing about climate change." Rather he quotes her as saying, "I can't say myself that [doing nothing] isn't the best solution". Playing bait and switch, as you have been doing, lessens you.
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