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Chris8616 at 06:35 AM on 14 August 2013What makes ice sheets grow and shrink?
This video explains how volcanoes too can melt the cryosphere.
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DSL at 02:53 AM on 14 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
CT has done that, but it's only up to 2006 (with a few more yearly anims for the 2000s). They also have a comparator. I like the tab flip, though, because it's a little more dramatic.
Need to shoot them an email for the updated anim.
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acjames76 at 01:58 AM on 14 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
funglestrumpet @ 9
All the images are at arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/archive.html
A video expert could, with a bit of time, put the entire dataset into a movie.
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Aristarchus at 01:37 AM on 14 August 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #32B
In response to Peter Lang #4
The U.S. DoE (Wind) report is available here.
It says, page 6, executive summary :
Wind Power Represented the Largest Source of U.S. Electric-Generating Capacity Additions in 2012. Wind Power constituted 43% of all nameplate capacity additions in 2012, overtaking natural gas-fired generation as the leading source of new capacity. This follows the 5 previous years in which wind power represented between 25% and 43% of new U.S. electric generation capacity in each year.
which is what the LA times wrote in its unreliable article and what SkS copied.
It seems that you made the basic error of not checking the source.
Secondly, the use of the capacity for new additions makes sense so that new equipment from january to december weight the same. I suppose it would be possible to count differently but that's not what the DoE is doing.
Third, note that natural-gas power plant, although they could generate power 90% of the time or more, do not, in practice, as they have to adapt to demand and other factors. From the eia website :
Between 2005 (purple line) and 2010 (red line) average capacity factors for natural gas plant operations between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. rose from 26% to 32%. For peak hours—from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.—capacity factors averaged about 50% (the red line) on a national basis in 2010 compared to about 40% in 2005.
Your sentence "Wind, like solar, produce little energy from their capacity. You need roughly three times as much wind capacity to supply the same energy as a conventional power station over say a year." is too simplistic to account for the reality of power generation.
Fourth, this post was just a news roundup, where some articles are quoted without comment. Even if the article quoted was incorrect - and he wasn't - judging the quality of this website on just that seems completely unfair.
Fifth, could you please provide examples of other basic errors on this website ? I will be there to ask for corrections.
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funglestrumpet at 01:37 AM on 14 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
DSL @ 7
Any chance of getting those two ice concentration images put into one of those clever graphics that flips between the two conditions - in the same way the 'escalator' one does? It does rather spell out just how much the Arctic is changing.
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Composer99 at 23:37 PM on 13 August 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #32B
Peter Lang:
On what basis should others accept your claim that "the amount of energy generated" is more important than capacity in determining what is or is not the "fastest-growing energy source" in the US? FAQs and summary documents I have seen by the IEA and other informational agencies (such as this one) tend to use capacity as a metric for ability to generate power.
Further, expecting a site maintained and updated by humans to be 100% error-free - by the way, please provide examples - strikes me as inherently unreasonable. What matters is not what happens when errors are made, because they are inevitable. What matters is whether and how they are corrected.
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Peter Lang at 20:49 PM on 13 August 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #32B
The title of the post "U.S. wind power fastest-growing energy source in 2012, report says" is incorrect. The article says:
"In a first, wind energy became the No. 1 source of new U.S. electricity generation capacity in 2012, according to a report released by the Energy Department on Tuesday."
The article is about the capacity, not the amount of energy generated. Wind, like solar, produce little energy from their capacity. You need roughly three times as much wind capacity to supply the same energy as a conventional power station over say a year.
I seldom look at SKS anymore because each time I do I find it makes basic errors, or uncritically quotes unreliable artciles as in this case, or is involved in advocacy.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please furnish evidence of such supposed basic errors. Unsupported assertions bordering on sloganeering struck out.
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bouke at 19:16 PM on 13 August 2013What makes ice sheets grow and shrink?
Excellent piece. One minor nitpick though: Some things are implied to be new results from this study, but they aren't all that new. For instance, the fact that Milankovitch cycles alone aren't enough to explain the ice age cycle has been known pretty much since the beginning of that theory. Scientists have been looking at the necessary feedbacks for decades.
For a general history of the science of the ice ages, see http://www.aip.org/history/climate/cycles.htm [warning, massive wall of text :-)]
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bill4344 at 14:43 PM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
Nice to see some well-deserved recognition for Neven's efforts. He runs a great blog.
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DSL at 13:43 PM on 13 August 2013The Albedo Effect and Global Warming
David, Gaia is not simply about the obvious interconnectedness of everything. There is the suggestion made by its proponents that the Earth has an agenda -- if not forethought, a program that strives toward a goal. There's no evidence for this. Appealing to the unknown and then defining it according to your own needs is not good thinking, and that's what most people do when they seek to supplement science with another method. You can't define with any sort of authority (beyond your own assumption of your own authority) what the supplement looks like. Who is Gaia? The part of Gaia that is beyond science is a figment of your imagination, differing in quality (sometimes radically) from every other human's concept of beyond-science Gaia. If you don't have any rigorously-discovered evidence for this reality undiscoverable by science, and you don't even have a consistent logic for confirming what counts as evidence, then you're not going anywhere.
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CO2 has a short residence time
And like a bad penny, this silly argument has risen again. Someone named Gosta Petterson (a professor emeritus of biochemistry and specialist in reaction kinetics, not atmosphere or carbon cycle) is once again claiming that individual molecular residence time (one way) is somehow identical to CO2 concentration change time (with most CO2 molecules simply exchanging for another from a different climate compartment), a much slower process.
There's a good discussion of this topic and the errors involved on SkS, under The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2.
Sadly, this appears to be yet another example of an emeritus professor wandering out of his specialty, and with little perspective proclaiming an entire field of science invalid. And of long-debunked myths being recycled over and over again...
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Chris8616 at 13:38 PM on 13 August 2013Ocean Acidification: Eating Away at Life in the Southern Ocean
Well, both description are ok, but there is a term missing for CO2 increase and results on marine life, fish.
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Chris8616 at 13:36 PM on 13 August 2013Ocean Acidification: Eating Away at Life in the Southern Ocean
Re technical term description
"Ocean acidification is occurring as a result of carbon dioxide emissions from industrial activity dissolving into the oceans, and involves a fundamental change in the chemistry of the global oceans."
The wikipedia entry is a bit misleading
" Ocean acidification is the name given to the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere." Link
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chriskoz at 13:29 PM on 13 August 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #32
This cartoon is actually not far from reality.
This picture (taken from priceofoil.org):
looks as sobering as the cartoon and even more surreal. Admitedly, taken as to induce emotions but still a good documentary.
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Chris8616 at 13:20 PM on 13 August 2013Ocean Acidification: Eating Away at Life in the Southern Ocean
Another impact from OA
Carbon Dioxide Is ‘Driving Fish Crazy’
Rising human carbon dioxide emissions may be affecting the brains and central nervous system of sea fishes with serious consequences for their survival Link
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Chris8616 at 13:11 PM on 13 August 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #32B
A Deadly Climb From Glaciation to Hothouse — Why the Permian-Triassic Extinction is Pertinent to Human Warming Link
A Mechanism for Shallow Methane Hydrate Dissociation Link
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Riduna at 10:39 AM on 13 August 2013Fox News found to be a major driving force behind global warming denial
Who owns Fox News? And the major newspapers in Australia?
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Wcalvin@uw.edu at 09:23 AM on 13 August 2013No alternative to atmospheric CO2 draw-down
My proposal “Emergency 20-year Drawdown of Excess CO2 via Push-Pull Ocean Pumps” is a geoengineering finalist in the Climate CoLab competition at MIT.
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Neven at 07:32 AM on 13 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
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kampmannpeine at 07:24 AM on 13 August 2013How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century?
a bit OT:
When I look at the first curve above (http://www.skepticalscience.com//pics/CSIRO-92-13-sea-level-rise.JPG) then a perhaps interesting idea arises and I hope I am reasoning correctly:
You observe an increase in SL in the last years more than the "red" trend. Having said this and knowing about the "standstill" of global temperature during more than the last decade, this seems to be a good explanation that the heat of the sun went to the ocean more than before (which needs an oceanographic explanation - what I do not know). The only doubt which arises is that the timeperiod of this "steep" rise is only 3-4 years whereas the "standstill" of global temperature is about 10-15 years ... Maybe we find here somebody who has an explanation .... :)
Thus the typical argument of the denialists is kind of falsified by experimental evidence which I think is an important issue. -
Tom Curtis at 07:10 AM on 13 August 2013The Albedo Effect and Global Warming
dn @10 whatever ....
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davidnewell at 07:03 AM on 13 August 2013The Albedo Effect and Global Warming
This is not a new "religion", it is an observable fact that we are not separate from our environment: and the principles of quantum physics support the premise. You may object to "Gaia"because of it's "in the poppys" overtone..
But don't think for a moment that "science" is a complete or sufficient matrix to describe phenomenae.
What you see is what you get: What you get is what you look for: What you look for is what you see.
If you want to look for something we are NOT "for",
examine the nature of activity hamans have conducted on this planet which threaten Life on it.
"Science", the "intellect" and "the ego", thinking that it is separate from "context", has led to this situation. Now, "science" , and "the intellect" have GOT to be employed to "get us out" of this situation. Only one change, Tom. "you" and "I" and "the planet" are NOT separate.
You can dispute this only in the face of incredibly overwhelming facts staring you in the face.
I'll call it Gaia, and have a sense of what I'm talking about, and it ain't "religion".
regards,
David
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davidnewell at 06:42 AM on 13 August 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
KR: My apologies, I am new to this site, and have not explored all it's nooks and crannies.
this seeme to be "on subject", dealing essentially with "weathering of rock" , but I would be glad to start another thread, or do whatever I can to cooperate.
meanwhile, the following is in response to Michael's observations
In response to:
michael sweet
"David,
It strikes me that it is unrealistic to imagine that 100% of the CO2 that passes the waer jet would be absorbed. Find some data to support your claim, or withdraw it."
Michael:
I cannot withdraw an assertion I did not make.
No assertion that 100% would be captured was projected. If you COULD capture 100%, you most definitively would not want to, as downwind vegetation would be significantly affected.
My WAG as stated above, is here replicated for your reading convenience:
=
quote:
"i GUESS that between 8% and 15% can be 'caught": but this is a guess."
Unquote:
Further, the following tests are indicated:
from the paper:
"Attachment three" details these tests, (as well as a proposed field trial), but following is a summary of them.
1. Drift droplets of pure water, ocean water, and ocean water from over playa soils, through various sized nozzles, through an enclosed cylinder of air, while monitoring the reduction in the amount of CO2 in the air over a time interval.
This experiment will show the effectiveness of the proposed water source options, and the effects of changing the droplet size.
2. Perform the same tests through an extended archway with a specified rate of air flow through it, measuring the humidity and depletion % of CO2 in the air at the exit.
This experiment will generate a better profile of anticipated effectiveness of air droplets rising and falling in the proposed construct.
Proposed field trial:
3. An approximately 30 HP water pump should be provided to pump basic pH ~9.1) and saline Carson Sink water into the air in a breeze, utilizing the "tuneable spray nozzle" of "attachment one" (or similar), with upwind and downwind measurements of CO2.
This test will demonstrate the more expensive option, (which is likely to be the most effective), which relates to dumping water on the playa after it has been used to generate electricity, and using the power produced to drive a pump which sucks up the water again and produces the spray.
A "Request for Proposal" (RFP) is being drawn up in regard to these tests, and will generate actual quotes
==================
You (Michael) said:
"The volume transport of the overturning circulation at 24 N has been estimated from hydrographic section data ([4]) as 17 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s),
The currents off of Chile also move a tremendous volume of water. How can you compare the amount of CO2 your scheme would remove to the CO2 those currents absorb?
Mr. Sweet, your source, http://www.pik-potsdam.de/\u126 ~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.html, doesn’t open.
Perhaps I’m missing something, but it appears you are speaking of the mass transport of the current, whereas the key point of the above proposal is a function of the surface area .
Would you like to see a calculation of surface area on the flow of water subdivided into various size droplets sprayed through the air?
(As stated by Glenn in post # 28:
The surface area of all those aerosols up there is huge. A sphere with a surface area of 1 m2 has a diameter a bit over 1/2 meter. Split that into micro spheres with a diameter of a micron and the total surface area increases by a factor of over 1/2 a million!)
michael,
Do you think that the principle mode of ocean CO2 absorption occurs directly across the surface of the ocean, or do you think it may significantly derive from rainfall and ocean spray?
What do you think happens to mists of neutral water collected in a tray after falling through 8 feet of fall?
The pH goes through interesting curves,, but winds up around pH 5.6 if I recall.
You asked (again, and I will answer again)
Where will all the salt go?
The 3% NaCl content of the water would be of no significant concern on the already saline playa under discussion.(Of which many others of similar saline character can be found) The volume of soils in which it would be mixed, over decades, would be be of no concern. On the other hand, if it is seen as a desireable commodity, the locus of the spray heads and their localized retention podns can be changed frequently, and the prior spray surface allowed to dry, at which time the NACl can be scraped up and utilized Other places. One way, or the other, it's not a problem.
Uou observed:
According to
the state of California, the total electricity generation in California is about 74,000 MW. Since you claim at post 24 that 835 MW is 1/3 of the power used in California I am inclined to think you need to check your math much more carefully. It is unreasonable to imagine that 1/3 of the power in California is used to pump that single water station. In general, the amount of water that would need to be pumped is far beyond any reasonable amount that could be pumped. Where would the gigantic amount of energy come from?
Thank you, Michael, I can’t find my source, and it appears to be in error anyway, I will retract that.
The salient point intended to be communicated, was that the "power source" for the enterprise can be compared to existing plant used for the same purpose: moving water.
Regards,
David
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Tom Curtis at 05:56 AM on 13 August 2013The Albedo Effect and Global Warming
davidnewell @8, any mention of gaia that is not purely metaphorical is simply mysticism. Humans are not "for" anything within the purview of science; and if we are "for" something, that thing will be found within the texts of some traditional religion. Further, absent a direct causal link between the presence of highly alkaline soils and increased rainfall, claims that anticipated increased rainfall on one region with such soils have a teleological basis are (yet again) mysticism. Don't for a moment imagine that your new religion has any basis in science.
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davidnewell at 05:27 AM on 13 August 2013The Albedo Effect and Global Warming
william at 06:43 AM on 1 August, 2013
releasing heat and water vapour to the atmosphere or thinner ice doing likewise. Gaia is trying to fight back.
Right on! Totally agree! We humanoids think we're "all that", and we HAVE evolved "intellects" which have gotten ALL of Gaia endangered...
but.."what we are for" ( as close as I can intuit/express it) is to see what the INNATE intelligence of the "larger system" is trying to "do", and help it along.
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For instance, there is a focused change anticipated in weather patterns in the Northern Pacific, which is anticipated to drive precipitation into Northern Nevada. Why?? So that rain can fall on the pH 10 (or so) alkaliine soils found so abundantly in that locale, in the Great Basin.
Thus cometh (pat pending)
"Carbon Dioxide Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Utilizing Endorheic Basin Alkaline Deposits to Effect Mineral Carbonation"
all WE have to do, is quit being a "ME", and become open to ??whatever is apparent to do.."
We are all in this together.
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DSL at 03:52 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
While concentration is not volume, it becomes an indicator of volume when looked at in the middle of September. I often use the following two images to stun people into awareness. I have them open up each in its own tab.
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Geoff Hughes at 03:44 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
Thanks, everybody.
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Chris G at 03:31 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
In case it isn't obvious, I'd just like to point out that the albedo flip feedback is not limited to sea ice. I've read that the extent and/or duration of snow cover on land is also decreasing, and that also creates an albedo flip.
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Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
I would suggest that discussions of geoengineering methods (as per davidnewell above) be taken to an appropriate thread on geoengineering.
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barry1487 at 02:29 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2012 was 3,400 km3. This value is 72% lower than the mean over this period, 80% lower than the maximum in 1979, and 2.0 standard deviations below the 1979-2011 trend.
The figures quoted here and in the article represent the volume of ice loss for Septembers (when Arctic sea ice is at minimum extent/area/volume) since 1979.
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barry1487 at 02:21 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
Geoff,
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
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jja at 01:45 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
Geoff Hughes
Wipneus PIOMASVolume data with various best-fit curves.
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Geoff Hughes at 01:36 AM on 13 August 2013Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists
"the volume of ice has decreased approximately 75% over the past 3 decades."
Can this be true? The link shows the sea ice anamoly and trend, but I do not know how to calculate the percentage change in volume from the information on the graph. I was expecting to see some beginning and ending actual volumes, say, 100 units of ice declining to 25 units over the 30 years. Could you please explain the loss in volume more fully?
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Leland Palmer at 15:38 PM on 12 August 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Here's an interesting paper, on the PETM and the series of smaller Eocene hyperthermal events with accompanying carbon isotope excurstions that followed it, called in this paper the ETM2 and ETM3 events:
Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
The authors present seemingly convincing correlations between the ETM2 and ETM3 events and orbital variations in insolation. They suggest a negative correlation with CaCO3 content of sediments during a series of orbital variations surrounding and including these events.
They claim that high latitude melting of permafrost and associated positive feedbacks are the likely cause of these hyperthermal events.
Unfortunately, other authors claim that the PETM (called ETM1 in this paper) and the other Eocene events have similar C13 and O18 excursion correlations, which demonstrate that the carbon source is similar or identical.
And, the initial sharp phase of the PETM/ETM1 occurred very rapidly, in less than about 200 years- seeingly too rapidly for any other explanation except methane hydrate release.
So, if the PETM/ETM1 was a hydrate release event, and the other events have matching C13 and O18 isotope excursions, then ETM2, ETM3 were also likely mainly methane release events, I think.
So, we are arguably left with a series of orbital climate change driven methane releases.
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dwr at 15:15 PM on 12 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
CBDunkerson: Thanks for the response.
I see that DMI states that its current 15% sea ice extent estimate "can differ slightly from other sea ice extent estimates".
Something of an understatement.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 14:24 PM on 12 August 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
I have sometimnes wondered about an alternative approach to capturing and sequestering CO2, piggy-backing of the fact that we may well need to look at geo-engineering answers down the track.
The most technically viable geoengineering answer seems to be injecting large volumes of aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cause some cooling. Certainly it is a very far from ideal answer since you still get a lot of other climate impacts, even if aggregate warming were reversed, and it does nothing about ocean acidifcation. But we may need to go down that road anyway.
So, since we are possibly going to put 'something' up there any way, why not look at whether we can get that 'something' to do double duty and help with removing CO2 as well as reflecting sunlight. If we lofting large quantities of microscopic particles, the surface area of all that material is enormous - perfect for enhancing rates of chemical reactions.
What if we simply crushed the very terrestrial rocks that are involved in weathering into fine dust and lofted that into the atmosphere as an aerosol, massively accelerating the natural rate of weathering. Instead of Carbonic acid falling from the sky and weathering happening on the ground, we might instead have see things like calcium bicarbonate falling in the rain.
Would that sequester carbon? Or would it just mess up the chemistry of the oceans even further?
Failing that, could some smart chemist come up with another reaction that we could use that would achieve a similar result. Up there wwe have some wonderful resources; CO2, H2O, O2, N2 and energy in the form of sunlight. All the buidling blocks for most of the known chemicals found in Organic Chemistry. Surely someone can think of a chemical pathway that will work.
The surface area of all those aerosols up there is huge. A sphere with a surface area of 1 m2 has a diameter a bit over 1/2 meter. Split that into micro spheres with a diameter of a micron and the total surface area increases by a factor of over 1/2 a million!
A precious, precious resource.
And if we can get the chemistry right, a far far more efficient method of trying to draw down CO2 than any of the more mechanical approaches being considered down on the surface.
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vrooomie at 12:51 PM on 12 August 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #32
The cartoon reminds me of the hamster, in Joe Cartoon.....:)
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scaddenp at 09:58 AM on 12 August 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
Michael, not that it make a lot of difference but 74GW is capacity not generation. From the actual generation, it seems average generation is 22000MW.
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michael sweet at 09:34 AM on 12 August 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
David,
It strikes me that it is unrealistic to imagine that 100% of the CO2 that passes the waer jet would be absorbed. Find some data to support your claim, or withdraw it. The volume of water you want to move seems to me to be much too small to absorb a significant amount of CO2. You realize that
The volume transport of the overturning circulation at 24 N has been estimated from hydrographic section data ([4]) as 17 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s), source
The currents off of Chile also move a tremendous volume of water. How can you compare the amount of CO2 your scheme would remove to the CO2 those currents absorb?
Where will all the salt go?
According to the state of California, the total electricity generation in California is about 74,000 MW. Since you claim at post 24 that 835 MW is 1/3 of the power used in California I am inclined to think you need to check your math much more carefully. It is unreasonable to imagine that 1/3 of the power in California is used to pump that single water station. In general, the amount of water that would need to be pumped is far beyond any reasonable amount that could be pumped. Where would the gigantic amount of energy come from?
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davidnewell at 02:39 AM on 12 August 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
Oh yeah, and obviously the technique is imminently scaleable.
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davidnewell at 02:37 AM on 12 August 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
Michael:
Thank you for your question.
PHYSICAL PLANT PROPOSAL
Scale of the proposal, by comparison to an existing pumping structure
1/3 of the electricity used in California, year to year, is employed to power the Edmonston Pumping Station, which lifts fresh water across the Tehachapies, from Northern to Southern California
Edmonston Pumping Station profile:
Normal static head: 1,970 ft
Total flow at design head: 315 ft³/s (9 m³/s) (per unit)
Motor rating: 80,000 hp (60MW)
Flow at design head: 315 ft³/s (9 m³/s) (per uniit)
Total flow at design head: 4410 ft³/s (450,000 m³/h) (Combined)
Total Motor rating: 1,120,000 hp (835 MW)[2]
========================
Hypothesizing broadly, a 3/4 to 1 gigawatt power plant
could lift 1/3 the water, or ~1470 cu. feet of water second (150,000cu.M/ Hr.)
3 times as high, or ~ 6,000 feet.
This would enable a 2,000 foot "head" of pressure to effect delivery of the ocean water to wherever you may want to run the pipes: in Nevada, whose playas are at approximately 4,000 feet above sea level.
This comparison is made so that the project can be seen as imminently "doable" if the will to do so is established.
The envisioned structure would consist of pumps to convey Pacific Ocean water from (probably) the vicinity of Eureka, to lined retention basins located on the Eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, and thence released and conveyed by piping as circumstances dictate through spray nozzles arranged on the upwind side of the playas to be so utilized. (Sketches are found in the attachment # 1)
In my sample, I used the Black Rock Desert Playa as the "example.": it is both relatively close, and better characterized than any of the many other playas which could be employed. (And is a "saline" playa, and thus not changed in this protocol..)
The spraying of ocean water through adjustable nozzles in fans of approximately 150 foot radius will generate "customizable " droplet sizes to effect varying degrees of CO2 absorption and water evaporation.
Presuming then a 150 foot radius spray fan, and an average wind speed of 10 MPH, the volume of CO2 which will pass through the plane of the fan half-circle, per year, is ~ 400,000 metric tonnes. This is for one "spray rig", and, ultimately, thousands are envisaged. (See note __)
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It would be desirable to isolate portions of the Playa downwind of the sprayers to retain the water in shallow local ponds. The pH of the impounded waters would be monitored, and deeper levels of the playa soils would be accessed by the use of water jets to"drill down" through the consolidated clays, when necessary. As precipitated carbonates and salts build up in the impoundment, the location of the spray nozzle may be moved to a new area.
It remains the results of field tests to determine which method of spraying water will be the most satisfactory:
—The direct spraying of ocean water above the playa surface
—The vacuum induction of supernatant playa water into the nozzle stream, similar to an "aspirator" mechanism
or
— The regeneration of electricity at the spray head location so that supernatant playa water can be pumped through the nozzles.
In addition, imparting an electrostatic charge to the droplets through electrification of the spray nozzles may be contemplated, to both keep the droplets discrete from one another, and/or modify the residence time of the flight path of the droplets, as described in exhibit 2.
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The 3% NaCl content of the water would be of no significant concern on the already saline playa under discussion.(Of which many others of similar saline character can be found) The volume of soils in which it would be mixed, over decades, would be be of no concern. On the other hand, if it is seen as a desireable commodity, the locus of the spray heads and their localized retention podns can be changed frequently, and the prior spray surface allowed to dry, at which time the NACl can be scraped up and utilized Other places. One way, or the other, it's not a problem.
===============
Cost estimates, AKA Wild Guesses:
Estimated cost of the proposal implementation:
Edmonston Pumping Station was referred to earlier as an example of scale. It cost ~$6 billion dollars to build. It flows more water than the proposal, and therefore has larger pipes, but the distance of pumping is shorter than the proposal requires. These facts tend to offset one another.
Obviously, there are many variables beyond my best guesswork which will modify the actual cost.
Should the State of California redirect the energy for the Tehachapi pumps to this project, there would be no need for the construction of another power plant.
Since this seems unlikely, in would not be unrealistic to anticipate another $10 billion in the construction of another power plant.
It may be noted that if the power plant was co-located with the pumping plant, near the ocean, that the cooling water for the power plant could be part of the water pumped, thus alleviating the environmental problems related to hot-water discharge.
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The scale of the investment needed is (again a guess) about what farmers have put into central pivot irrigation systems over the past 40 years or so.
"my" proposal dwells with conditions extant in my "local endorheic basin", whose relatively recent collection of huge quantities of cations from the local fresh granite surface seem, to my eyes, to be a relatively rare occurrence:
however, there may be many other places in the world where it would be easier to provide ocean water to, and spray over alkaline clay-like soils: but I'm not familiar with them. It IS unlikely that the huge QUANTITIES of material are to be found elsewhere: (as is found in the Great Basin...) but if the source water is cheaper to obtain, then it's worth considering.
==================
If it works, it is of course worth the energy, despite the APA's summation of 18 months ago, which is that "Direct Air Capture" is a non-runner.
The differences in this are:
the huge area of sprayed liquid constitutes "the collector", and this offsets the fact that th pH is "moderate", not "highly" alkaline.
The "10 mph average breeze" consitutes the "air mover"
The "reactant" doesn't have to be "desorbed" from the collected CO2, at 600 degrees plus, and recycled.
There is no concern about taking "desorbed and liquified" CO2 to some other site and injecting it...
There is a certitude that the mineralization of CO2 will in fact provide "geologic interval" sequestration.
(gratuitous commentary alert..)
Also, on a personal level, I find this to be an exemplification of the (to me) apparent fact that "what we are for" on this planet, is to "help out" the planet "work", not drive towards individualized "wealth". ALL this is, is an elaboration and an "assist" to "how the planet works".
(end gratuitous comment.)
Please throw me another objection
I appreciate the opportunity to dialogue with people about this premise, who have an understanding of the perilous times we are in.
Sincerely,
David
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John Hartz at 01:00 AM on 12 August 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #32B
Michael: Thanks for bringing the newly released California report, "Indicators of Climate Change in California," to everyone's attention. I'll highlight it in this week's Weekly Digest.
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michael sweet at 21:30 PM on 11 August 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #32B
The state of California released a report that describes the measured effects of climate change in California. The linked page has a link to the press release, the report summary and the entire report. This is an update to a report originally written in 2009. The report summary includes a list of the effects that had been updated or were new. I found it interesting to see what the new effects were relative to what was known in 2009 (black carbon and ocean acidification were among the new sections).
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chriskoz at 21:24 PM on 11 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
BC@13,
Thanks for the pointer to the excellent post by Tamino, of which I am aware. Note that Tamino (as well as Hudson 2011 in large part) estimate the forcing from just the sea ice extent data. They model the resulting albedo change between sea ice and open ocean as 0.2 and calculate the resulting extra amount of isolation penetrating water. They asume no changes in other parameters. In particular, the type of ice and the clouds stay the same.
Riihela et al., (2013) however went beyond that, and have derived the albedo from satelite observations and shown that the type of ice has also changed, quote from the abrstract:
...we present an analysis of observed changes in the mean albedo of the Arctic sea-ice zone using a data set consisting of 28 years of homogenized satellite data4. Along with the albedo reduction resulting from the well-known loss of late-summer sea-ice cover5, 6, we show that the mean albedo of the remaining Arctic sea-ice zone is decreasing.
I don't have access to the full text so I am not sure if my understanding is correct, but I think their sea-ice zone albedo of −0.029±0.011/decade is just the result of change in quality of the remaining ice: i.e. ice becoming darker. Therefore, the resulting climate forcing should be calculated and added on top of Hudson/Tamino forcing. Having reread the former, ignoring the math, I do not feel the extra forcing from Riihela et al., (2013) will increase the perceived .1-.13W/m2. In any case, without unknown methane feedbacks, it is not signifficant (yet) compared to the primary CO2 forcing.
I guess "dark snow" project by Jason Box may shed additional light on the decreasing albedo in Arctic. So I'm looking for its results... -
jja at 17:12 PM on 11 August 2013How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century?
After crafting a lengthy response and then having it lost due to time out of login status I will summarize.
@davidnewell I am sorry, the 180 GTco2 was not 2100 it was 2050 here: figure 38 China LBL 2050 emission
MA Rogers @30
Thank you for showing me that, I do not exactly grasp the difference between the measured energy imbalance and the RF value, they should be the same in my mind. What am I missing?
The value I used was indeed RF values not energy imbalance. If I use your math and Hansen & Sotos value of .75 (they adjust for the solar minimum) I get a value of (7.5 * .75/.58) * 1.2 which is equal to 11.6 ZJ p.a. this will make a total earth cumulative energy imbalance of 1,000 ZJ by 2100 (86 years) If even a few of the non-linear feedbacks are taken into account and a higher (more realistic) emission scenario is used then the value of energy imbalance by 2100 could easily be 4-6X the current value. Therefore the total cumulative energy by 2100 will be closer to 3,000 +2,000/-1,000 ZJ . This will increase if I used the slightly higher values of Balmaseda, Trenberth & Kallen
In addition, if the ECS value is 4.3 then surface warming will be greater and the proportion of heat transferred by convection to land-based ice will increase.The AF is discussed in Terenzi & Khatiwala here:
We believe that the increase in AF can be explained simply by a decrease in the capacity of both the ocean and land-biosphere to absorb anthropogenic carbon, as evinced by decreases in both OF and LF (not shown). This is likely due to saturation effects such as changes in the oceanic Revelle buffer factor (e.g., Keeling, 2005). Indeed, when we linearize the chemistry, which in effect holds the buffer factor fixed, the upward trend disappears (not shown). Thus, even with a fixed emission growth rate, our model, with no carbon-climate feedbacks, predicts future increases in AF because of the nonlinearity of the carbon cycle.
Yes, with a more rapid loss of arctic sea ice, the increase in boreal emissions and the potential for collapse of natural carbon sinks will incrase the AF even greater, couple this with a more realistic emissions scenario and 5 or even 21 M of SLR by 2100 will be barely noticed by a loose group of remnant humanity living hand to mouth for basic survival.
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Riduna at 17:01 PM on 11 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
Faster Warming Means Less Ice
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Tom Curtis at 07:10 AM on 11 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
rockytom @15, whatever his other vices, Spencer cannot have lied simply by saying that Antarctic sea ice was increasing while Arctic sea ice was declining:
(Tamino)
Tamino had this to say in his most recent comment on Antarctic sea ice (of which I am aware):
"Both [Antarctic sea ice area and extent] have shown increase over time which is statistically significant. The smoothed values for extent have increased by about 0.57 million km^2, area by about 0.51 million km^2. The reason for its increase is uncertain, but two possibilities which have been suggested are: 1, increased precipitation (snowfall) due to warming near the tropics; 2, intensification of the “polar vortex” perhaps due to changes in stratospheric ozone concentration.
Despite the fact that the southern ice pack is larger overall than the northern, its increases are much smaller than the decreases noted for the northern hemisphere, 1.96 million km^2 in extent and 1.92 million km^2 of area. This puts the lie to claims (oft repeated) that southern gain even “almost” balances northern loss — the northern extent loss is 3.4 times as great as the southern extent gain while northern area loss is 3.8 times as great as southern area gain. When one is nearly 4 times as big as another, they are certainly not “balanced” and anyone who claims so is either a fool or an outright liar."
(Original emphasis)
I don't have much to add to that except to note that the extended satellite record from 1973 shows a declining trend in Antarctic sea ice due to an initial sharp decline from 1973 to 1978 (PDF). Further, while Manabe et al (1991) predicted a thickening of Antarctic sea ice, and some more recent models (3 of 12 assessed by Stroeve et al (2007) also show a declining trend - the models are not consistent enough on this point to say that either increasing or decreasing Antarctic sea ice in the short term are prediction of climate science. Sea ice dynamics are not captured well in climate models either in the Arctic (where the decline is massively under predicted) nor the Antarctic (where the predictions are inconsistent between models).
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william5331 at 06:10 AM on 11 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
If the sea releases heat into the atmosphere, this cools, not warms, the ocean. It also releases more water vapour into the atmosphere which can cause low pressure weater systems with accompanying clouds. This increases Albedo. This is clearly seen this year (2013) and while it will only delay the ultimate melt, it is interesting to see Gaia fighting back.
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CBDunkerson at 04:09 AM on 11 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
dwr, the DMI page states that it uses 15% sea ice extent. There is also a red note at the bottom which says they recently changed their methodology to adjust for coastal zones. A link in that red text goes to the version prior to the adjustment... which seems more in line with the other sources.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Thus, the higher ice extent DMI is showing compared to the other sources is apparently due to the fact that they are now measuring the ice extent over a larger total area.
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rockytom at 03:28 AM on 11 August 2013Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming
I recently watched Roy Spencer lie to congress ( a U. S. Senate committee) by stating that although sea ice was declining in the Arctic, it was increasing in the Antarctic and concluding that other testimony to the same committee on Arctic sea ice was only part of the story. It was Spencer who told only part of the story as he did not mention that the polar ice in the Antarctic is land based while that in the Arctic is sea ice (adjacent to Greenland which is land ice) and that all areas are losing ice as the planet warms. There is solid evidence that ice shelves tied to land ice in Antarctica are losing ice by being undercut by warming seas, therefure speeding Antarctic glaciers movement to the sea. Spencer's testimony was astoundingly simplistic, but not unexpected from such an "expert."
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