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Comments 49151 to 49200:
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Richard C (NZ) at 19:38 PM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Nuccitelli - "heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system due to the increased greenhouse effect"
Skeptical Science blog (Nuccitelli et al, 2012) - "90% of global warming goes into the ocean"
Schmittner - "Most heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other gases added to the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans"
Rahmstorf - ”heat penetrates faster into the oceans in a warmer climate”
OK, so given the use of the word "heat" I assume that the process is convective/conductive sensible heat transfer (or maybe not - see below). This begs a few questions for the above-named to answer:-
1) If say, 40 yr heat accumulation in the ocean (18x10^22 J approx) is not solar-sourced, but energy sourced from the atmosphere (low specific heat) from GHG energy entrapment and moved to the ocean (high specific heat) against the predominant thermal gradient then there must be documentation of this process somewhere with accompanying thermodynamic calculations - what reference is there to this in scientific literature?
2)a) Given the amount of energy involved, someone must have noticed the transfer occurring at the ocean/atmosphere interface and measured the heat transfer in order to quantify it and therefore verify both the phenomenon and enable calibration of global climate models - what reference is there to this in scientific literature?
2)b) I note, possibly unfairly, that NASA's GISS ModelE wildly overestimates ocean heat uptake in the ARGO era - is it possible that the phenomenon has not been verified empirically and that particular model say (and maybe other models) is not configured realistically (i.e. no GCM V&V has been done re anthropogenic ocean heat uptake)?
3) If I've misconstrued the process and it is actually a radiative energy transfer process (or a radiative/sensible heat combination), what reference is available to spectroscopy studies of radiation/sea water interaction to support the contention?
I note a number of spectroscopic radiation/water studies e.g. Hale and Querry 1973 (1989 citations to date), indicate that such a process is highly unlikely in view of only about 10 microns penetration in the IR-C range of GHG emittance.
4)a) If the process subscribed to by climate scientists such as the above-named is valid and fully understood, why has the IPCC not actually detailed the process with citations of relevant literature?
4)b) I note IPCC AR4 was very vague about an anthropogenic ocean heating process, WGI TS.4.1:-
“Formal attribution studies now suggest that it is likely that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the observed warming of the upper several hundred metres of the global ocean during the latter half of the 20th century {5.2, 9.5} ”
They only "suggest" and then it is only "likely", no process is found at 5.2 and 9.5. If AR5 WGI is unable to firm up validity of the above process and detail it with citations, what expectation can there be of credence being given to it by anyone using the report for policy purposes, or any purposes for that matter?
Note that the process as described above is not the GHG insulation effect of solar-sourced ocean energy accumulation proposed by Peter Minnett at Real Climate as a result of a single study by NIWA's MV Tangaroa i.e. Minnett's posited effect competes with the above as yet undocumented process (as far as I know) to provide a credible anthropogenically driven ocean heat accumulation mechanism neither of which have been adopted by the IPCC to date.
Cross posted at The Oregonian (Nuccitelli letter linked at SkS), Skeptical Science (Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian) and Climate Conversation Group (Open Threads, Ocean heat content). -
william5331 at 17:32 PM on 5 February 2013No warming in 16 years
As I understand it, aerosols include particulate matter. Over the past couple of weeks we have seen news about air pollution in China as they close down factories and limit automobiles in the capital. Today, Japan is complaining about the air pollution coming over from China. How much of the aerosol load which is wafted up into the atmosphere is from this source and do we have any information on whether the load of aerosols in the upper atmosphere has been increasing along with China's increased manufacturing. I have heard an estimate that if we stoped the production of all aerosols, we might have as much as a 20C rise in temperature. A sobering thought if China (and the rest of us) cleaned up our act. Was the temporary flattening of the temperature record following the 40's due to American air pollution which they then cleaned up,
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/aerosol.htm
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Doug Hutcheson at 17:27 PM on 5 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Paul D @ 31 I must admit to not having used Micro$oft Window$ for a long time, so I cannot comment on mouse gesture assignments. I am using Linux (Fedora 17) with a BlueTooth mouse having a central wheel and the default mouse behaviour in a web page under Firefox 18 is quite interesting:
Left and right buttons as you would expect.
Wheel forward and backward scrolls the page, as you would expect.
Pushing the wheel to the left is the same as clicking the browser Back button.
Pushing the wheel to the right is the same as clicking the browser Forward button.
Following your idea, I have just tried pressing the mouse wheel (ie: the middle button) while over a hyperlink and, as you said, the link opens in a new tab (thanks for the tip!).
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william5331 at 16:41 PM on 5 February 2013Glaciers still shrinking in 2011, how have contrarians claimed the opposite?
Of course, the contrarians are correct. We are heading into a glacial. (they call it an ice age not realizing that we are in the middle of an ice age that has lasted about 2.5 million years so far). As soon as an interglacial establishes itself, various carbon sinks start to reduce atmospheric Carbon dioxide and we are on the way to another glacial. The only thing they miss is that we have delayed the onset of the next glacial by who knows how much and may well be headed for a period like the carboniferous. Nothing wrong with that if we hadn't evolved our civilizations during an unusually stable period of climate and put a large amount of infrastructure in harms way from rising sea level. Oh! and developed our agriculture to prosper in the present climate regime and allowed our population to rise to use up each advance in food production. Just wait until our climate lurches instead of creeping as we continue to push on the light switch. Thirty or fourty days of stored food and a few years with vast crop failures!! At what point in this sequence will the deniers become convinced. If they are like the creationists - possibly never.
http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/carbon-sinks.html
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chriskoz at 16:33 PM on 5 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Updated Comments Policy... link is now contains somewhat outdated:
HTML Tips section.
Especially, follow this advice link at the end of the page is really obsolete now.
I propose to rid of this relly obsolete stuff and also remove/reduce the
HTML Tips
section and place the link to this page instead.
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dana1981 at 15:35 PM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Son of Krypton @7 - that's awesome, thanks for letting us know! Who's the professor in the climate modeling course?
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Son of Krypton at 13:27 PM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Well Dana, thanks for taking the good fight to all possible mediums.
While off topic, you may be interested to learn it seems the SkS team has some fans among the faculty at the University of Waterloo in Ontario. Nuccitelli et al (2012) was referenced quite prominently today in a 4th year Climate Modeling course I am enrolled in, and the arguments page was referenced in a first year geography course for which I am a TA.
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Son of Krypton at 12:08 PM on 5 February 2013Glaciers still shrinking in 2011, how have contrarians claimed the opposite?
@1 Elmo
Amen to that. Their logic seems to mimic a gem of a quote of Homer Simpson`s from some time ago
"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true."
P.S. I like the new comments system -
dana1981 at 10:50 AM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
JasonB @5 - indeed, unfortunately they edited the letter prior to publication. The original version I sent them is in this blog post.
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JasonB at 10:11 AM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
They may have published it, but unfortunately they removed "and the energy is equivalent to detonating four Hiroshima atomic bombs per second, every second over the past 15 years", which is a very powerful image, and the link to SkS.
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Composer99 at 08:00 AM on 5 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
For what it's worth the "bold" command in Basic mode publishes the way SkS handles the html strong tag.
If it could be revamped without too much effort, would it be possible to change it to publish the way SkS handles the html b tag? IMO the strong tag is disproportionately visually dominating, even taking into consideration that one is bolding the text to draw special attention to it or for special emphasis.
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Composer99 at 07:55 AM on 5 February 2013Climate's changed before
pcrudy:
The comparison is quite accurate. Arguing that humans can't drive climate change now because humans didn't drive past climate change - in the face of basic physics, backed by empirical evidence, that they can and indeed are - is logically equivalent to arguing that humans can't cause brush fires because they didn't in the past.
The scale of the behaviour being argued is not pertinent.
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dhogaza at 07:47 AM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
The Oregonian give Gordon Fulk op-ed space about once a year, and his various op-eds are pretty much interchangeable. Usually his responses are timed to appear after something major, such as (in this case) Obama's mention of climate change in his inaugural speech.
Over the last year, the Oregonian has also been publishing editorials pushing back on various proposals to limit CO2 emissions in the state. They've not gone full-blown denialist, but there has been a subtle change.
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monkeyorchid at 05:52 AM on 5 February 2013Lessons From Past Predictions: Ridley vs. IPCC and Hansen
Worryingly, Ridley is also on the advisory council of Sense About Science (http://www.senseaboutscience.org/pages/advisory-council.html), along with at least one other climate denier (Tony Trewavas). Might explain why SAS has been seems to have been very quiet about climate disinformation.
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philipm at 05:26 AM on 5 February 2013Introducing Climate Change Science to College Students
It’s good to see more books surfacing. When I wanted to read up on the subject, it was pretty much sites like this, realclimate and the academic literature. Raypierre’s Principles of Planetary Climate is good for physics grads (even one like me who didn’t do particularly well, I’m more at home in Computer Science), but more acessible texts are a really useful addition.
It is BTW a tad unfair to depict an ostrich with its head literally in the sand. They don’t actually do that, though they are in most respects almost as unintelligent as a science denier.
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philipm at 05:16 AM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
I meant <sub> tags, but it eats the others too…
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philipm at 04:05 AM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
The animated graph is brilliant. I posed a link to the YouTube on Facebook.
Something not often talked about is the implications of 90% of the increased planetary energy going into the oceans for the potential scale of a big El Niño. Has anyone modelled that? Can we expect another spike above the average as big as 1998, or would it be even bigger?
@vroomie: agree on the editor. I can now type CO2, without all the tags. Over at realclimate, their editor eats <sup> tags.
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vrooomie at 03:53 AM on 5 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
It is these kind of "duels" that will become increasingly frequent and bitter, as reality and the facts close in on climate misinformers. The laws of the jungle, vis-a-vis a cornered animal, are *going to* apply, and we who operate in the confines of an evidence-based world must be prepared to front these battles. Tiring, but, the stakes are worth it.
To the Mods: LOVE the WYSIWYG editor...a great inprovement!
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:25 AM on 5 February 2013Climate's changed before
pcrudy... It's actually a very apt comparison. It's shown over and over in published research that CO2 is the "Biggest Control Knob" (as Dr Richard Alley puts it) for global climate change.
Essentially, what humans are doing is taking that knob, that naturally modulates, and we're turning it rapidly in the warming direction. So, saying that natural climate change precludes humans being able to change climate is fundamentally wrong. And that is the point of the statement.
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Paul D at 02:47 AM on 5 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Doug H
In Windows 7 I think using the middle button to click on a link, opens a new tab with the page in IE8.I don't think the middle-button in Windows XP has a specific function does it?
You have to use something like MS IntelliPoint to assign a function or action to it. -
Kevin C at 02:19 AM on 5 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
On firefox 18 under Linux I'm getting a popup for the movie every time I visit the SkS homepage - it's really annoying. A simple fix would be to put the image before the break and movie after. (Or just move the movie to youtube).
Moderator Response: [Sph] Done, thanks. Not worth moving to YouTube, but getting the video off the snippet displayed on the home page was a good idea. -
pcrudy at 02:15 AM on 5 February 2013Climate's changed before
'....It is obviously true that past climate change was caused by natural forcings. However, to argue that this means we can’t cause climate change is like arguing that humans can’t start bushfires because in the past they’ve happened naturally...' is just another absurd comparision.
Comparing a billions of years old eco system and it's natural forcings over eons, to e.g. two neanderthals rubbing two sticks together 10,000 years ago to start a fire, and then accidently starting a bush fire, (proving that even neanderthals had the ability to change the climate!) demonstrates (-snip-).
Moderator Response: [DB] Inflammatory snipped. Please read this site's Comments Policy before commenting further (link adjacent to the comment box). Further comments constructed as this one will be deleted in their entirety. FYI. -
Rob Honeycutt at 02:06 AM on 5 February 2013Glaciers still shrinking in 2011, how have contrarians claimed the opposite?
Don... With the new WYSIWYG tool you can click the "insert" tab and easily link a URL. Sorry for killing that last link.
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WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Oddly enough, under the latest version of Google Chrome - Going to SkepticalScience.com, or this page, positions the browser to show the movie illustrating the editor at the top of the page. Not the top of the page itself, but scrolled down a fair bit. FireFox does not show this behavior.
This occurs even after clearing the browser cache - it's not due to old data. Chrome just seems to like the movie :)
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kampmannpeine at 00:21 AM on 5 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
super - Thank you all !
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CBDunkerson at 22:20 PM on 4 February 2013It's the sun
Sabretruthtiger wrote: "The high degree of correlation also suggests that solar activity is the primary driver of global temperature on every time scale studied (which is pretty much every time scale but the Milankovitch cycle)."
As others have noted, the period since ~1960 is another time scale where solar activity is clearly not the primary driver of temperature change. However, it is interesting that you were apparently aware that your argument did not hold true for the Milankovitch cycles... yet apparently couldn't make the connection between CO2 being the primary driver of temperature changes there and the 'recent time scale' link between increasing CO2 and temperature.
So yes, if we ignore every time scale at which solar activity was not the primary driver of temperature changes then we would conclude that solar activity is always the primary driver of temperature changes. We would just be wrong. As your argument clearly is. -
John Mason at 21:06 PM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Peter, this happened to me. I'd reinstalled everything a while back following a rebuild but hadn't gotten round to downloading and installing Quick Time Player. Having just done so, the issue is resolved. Hope that helps.
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Doug Hutcheson at 17:32 PM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Sphaerica @ 12, I can no longer make the editor misbehave in the same way (tears hair, gnashes teeth, throws things at monitor).
I still have a problem using the middle button to type highlighted text into the Basic, or Insert, editor field: instead of typing the highlighted text, the middle button appears to paste whatever is currently in scratchpad memory.
If I explicitly use Edit/Copy to copy the highlighted text to memory, then Edit/Paste to paste it into the editor, everything seems to work fine, so I will use that route in future and train myself to not use the errant middle button.
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I will just crawl back under my rock ...
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Bob Lacatena at 14:44 PM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Peter,
Can you clarify your problem? Does it happen on every page, or only this post? What are the details behind the download prompt? The behavior you're describing sounds very, very strange.
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sauerj at 14:08 PM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Phil, Good point! Never thought of that. I retract my request. ... Thanks, sauerj
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wili at 13:31 PM on 4 February 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #5
Congratulations on getting your "Side of Least Drama" article getting into CP. I've done what I can to spread that important message to as many sites as possible
In the mean time, methane seems to be emerging from the ice-free parts of the Arctic in ever-increasing concentrations:http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/02/dramatic-increase-in-methane-in-the-arctic-in-january-2013.html#more
I know, I know, the article is from AMEG which has not always been, how shall we say, as scientifically meticulous as they could be. But the relevant methane maps are from Yurganev, who is, as far as I can see, beyond reproach. So is something going on with Arctic methane right now, or not? Is this methane from methanogens thriving on the newly opened ocean surface, or from seabed permafrost and clathrates starting to dissociate?
Is this methane on its way to the stratosphere? If so, what will it do there, and what will it's effects be on the global climate?
(For the record, in case anyone thinks I am some kind of AMEG troll, I think nearly any kind of geo-engineering is an exercise in hubris, when the most fundamental problem we are facing is human hubris.)
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Don Gisselbeck at 12:06 PM on 4 February 2013Glaciers still shrinking in 2011, how have contrarians claimed the opposite?
I skiied it September 18. This line: link would not have been skiable in 2007 (ice and crevices). This; link and this;
Moderator Response: [RH] Hot linked urls. (Sorry, I seem have killed the last link.) If you just paste in long links it breaks the page formatting. Please try to hot link your URL's whenever possible. -
peter prewett at 11:08 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
It even pops up when I posted the above comment.
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peter prewett at 11:07 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Now every time I load a SKS page I get a prompt to download a comments file which I have to cancel and it keeps popping up when ever another page is loaded so have to now keep clicking again and again to cancel.
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mspelto at 08:18 AM on 4 February 2013Glaciers still shrinking in 2011, how have contrarians claimed the opposite?
Don were you there in mid-sept of 2012? the snowpack looked pretty low in satellite imagery of the area.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:57 AM on 4 February 2013What Role Did the Arctic Storm Play in the Record Sea Ice Minimum?
Just a pingback. Neven's blog has a recent (Jan 31) post on this, reporting on paper that has just appeared in the online version of Geophysical Research Letters. Neven's post points back here, too. Summary: don't blame the 2012 record low ice extent on the August storm.
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DSL at 06:37 AM on 4 February 2013It's the sun
Pretty sure this is No. 2.
I'm also pretty sure Sabre's a drive-by. As I recall, he/she/it drove by over the summer with another bag full of wonders. -
Phil at 04:30 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Some sites let the writer edit his/her entry. Is that even possible here? Or, am I asking for the moon?
The obvious problem with this idea is that unscrupulous posters can edit their posts wholesale, changing the entire content, thus making it look like any subsequent replies are stupid or meaningless. I guess it might work if the edits were moderated, but I think the moderators have enough to do already ...Moderator Response:[DB] "but I think the moderators have enough to do already"
Yes
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sauerj at 03:56 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Thanks guys! The ".mp4" worked. When I open the file, it now 'runs' the movie. I notice I put a ton of typos in my note (embarassing). Some sites let the writer edit his/her entry. Is that even possible here? Or, am I asking for the moon? To all the team: Keep up the good work. This site is building a legacy for the years to come; it's one clear voice crying in the wilderness!
Re-testing insertion of above link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GetB-xs9D_A. Wow! This IS a lot easier!
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andylee at 03:12 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Now we can behave like secretaries with a new DTP package...
Also noticed that "keep me logged in" option doesn't appear keep me logged in, maybe cookie not working or expiring too soon?
Would it be possible to issue a redirect after post, so the back button doesn't offer to repost a message? I guess I'll find out when I post this and go back!
Are youtube links automatically formatted to embed? Here's a test:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GetB-xs9D_A
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Paul D at 02:51 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
ajki
Sphaerica has changed if to .mp4
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kampmannpeine at 01:44 AM on 4 February 2013The Climate Show #32: a Cook's tour of the Aussie heat
thnks Gareth ... excellent content
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JCSmith0007 at 01:42 AM on 4 February 2013The Climate Show #32: a Cook's tour of the Aussie heat
Nice show gentlemen. Living in the southern US right now (otherwise known as "denyer central"), I can tell you this is going to be a very long fight. What history has shown us, is that people don't tend to move on an issue until it is at its doorstep. When increased melting continues on Greenland (like the melting "event" that took place last summer) will need to be repeated for a coule of years. That will get the attention in the northeast US. But for peole in the southern US, it will take a huricane to slam into Miami, Houston, or New Orleans again.
As temperatures continue to rise, and as storms continue to batter our coast, as droughts continue to bake our interior.....people's mindset will gradually change. Denyers need to be publicly held to account for their lies.
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ajki at 01:11 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Paul D@16:
an Apple version of mp4
The origin may well be an "Apple" product - the result is a wellformed mpeg4. When downloading the file and changing the extension to something like ".m4v" or even ".mpg" e.g. WinMediaPlayer will happily display it.
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Martin Lack at 01:03 AM on 4 February 2013Lessons From Past Predictions: Ridley vs. IPCC and Hansen
#18/19 JasonB and DougH:
You may be interested to read one or all of the following:
My post about the GWPF's Academic Advisory Council: http://lackofenvironment.wordpress.com/2012/08/13/sampson-and-the-temple-of-economic-dinosaurs/
My posts about the Bishop of Chester (on its Board of Trustees): http://lackofenvironment.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/fostering-denial-in-the-church-of-england/
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Paul D at 00:37 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
The 'mv4' is the video demo file at the top of this article.
It's an Apple version of mp4.
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chriskoz at 00:18 AM on 4 February 2013The Climate Show #32: a Cook's tour of the Aussie heat
Particularly useful were few links you guys have shown. Worth following and reading on your own. BTW, could all the links the climate show guys are talking about be listed under the embedded video next time around for the listener's convenience?
The icesheet talk by Richard Alley is particularly fascinating, not no be missed!
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ajki at 00:18 AM on 4 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
As I'd like to try the brand new gift, I could make a try at the .mv4 miracle [sauerj] as well. From time to time I get a really annoying mess of "A plugin is needed to display content" messages from Firefox when reading an article or from the home page of SkS. This article itself is a perfect example for this phenomenon due to embedding the example slide show. As in the other example given in ref., the cause is absolutely always one "param" of the "object" tag: "quicktime". The videos/slide shows are well formed mpeg4 but the param "quicktime" results in a fail to display since no "Quicktime" is installed. Most (Win) users will avoid installing "Quicktime" unless permanently needed. But it may be a useful codec for the rest of the world(? tablets, cell phones...), though I doubt that seriously. There are some "Quicktime Alternate" floating around - but I think it'd be better to change the "param" to "video/mp4".
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sauerj at 23:54 PM on 3 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Question: Everythime I move to a different SkS page I get a Windows7 prompt to "open or save sks_comments.mv4 (682 KB) from skepticalscience.com". If I try to "open" the file, the computer acts its trying to open a program that it doesn't have an application for (like opening a worksheet.xls file w/o having Microsoft Excel program installed). This just started happending right when this WYSIWYG change went into effect.
Does anyone know what this sks_comments.mv4 is all about???? What should I do with it since I can't 'install' it and I can't get rid of it????
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Paul D at 23:53 PM on 3 February 2013WYSIWYG Comments Feature
Doug,
Tried repeating your problem here following your instructions and couldn't replicate. I inserted a link then looked at the code and it looked fine. Switched to basic and back to source and nothing had changed.
Wonder if the actual link string has something in it that was a problem?
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