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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 49301 to 49350:

  1. 16  ^  more years of global warming
    Do you have some reason to discount GISTEMP (GHSN stations) Land only index ?
  2. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    Dvunknnon, FYI, I was also kicked out of WUWT multiple times for similar attempts to inject some science into a few threads. An account of my experiences there can be read at ericgrimsrud.wordpress.com, November archives. For some reason, Mr. Watts get very uncomfortable when a real scientist with a real education background and a real history of research in climate or atmospheric science is in his midst.
  3. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    Dentists and brain surgeons both have medical degrees, therefore a dentist is qualified to opine on brain surgery and vice versa. Hopefully when Mr. H. Leighton Steward needs brain surgery he will practice what he preaches and hire his dentist for the operation. By the way, I have a petition of 3250 anonymous NASA retirees saying the moon is made of green cheese. (trust me...)
  4. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    In my book these "scientists" fall at the first hurdle, demonstrating that they do not have the appropriate understanding and expertise with which to even begin to comment on climate change. In their first "conclusion" they say:
    How really well known is the global temperature of the earth over the past century? Can the measurements that determine the surface temperature of the earth be more accurately quantified?
    The thing is, the accuracy of the measurements of global temperature are secondary to the consistency with which they are measured, and the precision to which they are measured. It doesn't matter if we don't "know" the actual mean global temperature to two decimal places (or even to one...) as long as the way that we measure the temperature change doesn't alter over time. For obfuscationists who can't (or won't) understand this point, imagine measuring the height of a child as s/he grows. Each year one might measure the height to the nearest millimetre, and note that over the course of a few years the child is growing. However, imagine too that the child was wearing a pair of shoes on each occasion. What the "Apollo era NASA retirees" are saying is that because the child was wearing shoes, we can't be sure that s/he is growing because we don't know his/her height. But as long as the shoes were of the same thickness on each occasion of measurement, it's irrelevant how tall the child actually is, if all one is attempting to do is to demonstrate that height is increasing from year to year. And so it is with demonstrating that the planet is warming. If the NASA denialists start with a botching of what the increase in temperature anomaly actually means, they have no credibility with anything that follows.
  5. Non-English climate science
    There is a Russian journal Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. The English translation 2005-2006 is available at http://www.allertonpress.com/journals/mhy.htm and 2007-present from Springer. I have a Russian acquaitance who has an interest in theoretical-phenomenological aspects of climate science (http://www.byalko.com/alexey/files/2010/11/Byalko_eng.pdf and http://fresnoalliance.com/wordpress/?p=6738). I suppose I could ask him for his opinion whether there would likely be significant work in Russian on climate science that would not be reflected in the English literature. Are you aware of significant work in Finnish that is not reflected in the English literature but should be?
  6. Water vapor in the stratosphere stopped global warming
    I was at a blog yesterday. It seems like water vapor has been an issue at the denier sites as of late. I used this web address to try and make the point that water vapor only plays a small part. The gentleman responded as follows. It's a bit difficult for me to read someone speaking English as a second language. 1. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/fire/ “Nationally, the amount of acres burned was 9,221,639 during 2012.” 2. “Approximately 505,000 cubic kilometers of water falls as precipitation each year; 398,000 cubic kilometers of it over the oceans. Globally averaged annual precipitation is 990 millimeters.” It will be interesting to calculate that over oceans we have 398,000/505,000=0.788 or 78.8% of all precipitation, despite that ocean area is only 71% of all area of the Earth. 3. I hope you know that to evaporate 1 kg of water we need 539 kcal/kg of energy. Please, google virga and imagine that close effect we see all around the globe-not all water droplets in their way to land always partially evaporated. Calculate these transportation of energy to upper troposphere, where according your's link is cold, it will be laughable to blame stratospheric increase of temperature (what density of air there?) as reason for climate change.
  7. Non-English climate science
    Bill, thanks for the tip on Google Scholar language setting. It only shows in Google Scholar front page (at least with my browser) so I didn't notice it. Unfortunately there are only 13 languages to choose from, but we get some help there. We can now separate the "clima" languages. As a whole, clima now gives 968,000 hits. Narrowing the search to Italian only gives 90,300 hits, Portuguese 277,000, and Spanish 421,000. Together these make 788,300 hits, so there's about 180,000 hits missing from the whole clima search. I assume that most of these are false hits from other languages due to author names or other issues mentioned in my post above. I tried this with English search but it gave peculiar result: whole search gives 2,540,000 hits but when narrowing to English pages only, the search gives 2,550,000 hits. On your comments about probability of lost foreign work being generally low, that might be the case, but I have checked this issue further to see that there exists substantial body of scientific literature in other languages that is not available in English. For example, in my searches I have seen hits from Russian journals that don't even seem to be available online. These journals have been publishing since 1940's. One of them was called Hydrology and Meteorology, if I recall correctly.
  8. 16  ^  more years of global warming
    Question for anyone. Can you recommend a land based only set of historical temperatures other than Berkeley Earth? Not that I think there is anything wrong with Berkely Earth. Its just that a second temperature set would be good as a check. Historical would mean back far enough that the trend is clearly not linear,because the next term in the log expansion shows up.
  9. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    my experience is that electrical engineers in particular can be very "sceptic" a recent IET poll "There is a conclusive body of evidence to support the existence of manmade climate change" http://eandt.theiet.org/magazine/2012/11/debate.cfm has a slight majority voting against this. It was about 2/3 to 1/3 against but as a member of the IET I shamelessly asked my colleagues and PhD students to support the motion. Clearly I should teach more quantum mechanics to electrical engineers...
  10. Non-English climate science
    Any thoughts as to why denial of climate science is such a phenomenon of the English-speaking world? There are (AFAIK) no prominent deniers in China, continental Europe, Brazil or India ... or are we just more familiar with those in the USA, UK, Canada and Australia? New Zealand seems to have few, and Ireland (where I live) has no political deniers at all, and the few in the media just echo their overseas counterparts. Objectors to wind farms are more vocal here, though as yet have no political muscle.
  11. Non-English climate science
    Ari, I have been thinking about this since yesterday. The relevant question is the probability that a significant non-English work is not picked up in the English discussion (i.e., not translated into English and not cited by work in English, whether an "original" contribution or a review). To estimate the probability of a "lost" foreign work, I need to have an idea of what "climate science" is and what is required to make a significant contribution. First, I think "climate science" is not a fundamental science: it can involve all the basic and second-level sciences (physics, chemistry, biology, geology, ...; it's hard to think of a discipline that would never be relevant to climate science) and also many quasi- or pseudo-sciences (economics, history, futurology). Further, work in climate science can be of different types: theoretical, theoretical-phenomenological, observational (both contemporary and historical; I class ice core data as historical-observational, for example), and experimental. For reasons relating to need for resources and for awareness of and communications with other research and researchers, I conclude that the probability of a "lost" foreign work is generally low, being highest in the area of contemporary observational work. PS. On Google Scholar main page, click "Settings" (upper right), the select "Languages" (on the left), and you can choose to "Search only for pages written in these language(s)".
  12. Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009
    A good example of this may be seen in the Greenland ice cover images from GRACE. Initially, the high altitude ice increased due to increased precipitation while the ice round the edges melted. e.g. here. Now the butressing effect of the ice round the edge has been reduced, much more is declining because the new ice is moving out more quickly, and occasional melt events.
  13. Non-English climate science
    the site:fi (f.e.) clause doesn't do search by language since there are .coms and .nets also elsewhere than english speaking countries, and many .fi s (for example) are in english.
  14. Non-English climate science
    I haven't seen that option in Google Scholar.
  15. New textbook on climate science and climate denial
    rockytom @15 "There will also be coverage of health impacts on both animals and plants throughout Earth history." Often people mention warming trends in the past without the context of mentioning what the flora and fauna of the time were or how those past condition are relevant to the needs of humans today; especially 7 billion humans.
  16. Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009
    jsmith @1, No matter how warm it gets as a result of global warming, at least in the near future, some places will reach temperatures below freezing for some part of the year. During that time, increased atmospheric moisture content will lead to more extensive, or deeper snow on average. But During the seasons when temperatures fall towards the winter minimum, or rise from it, there will be times when the temperature is above freezing, but would have been below freezing were it not for global warming. During those times, there will be no snowfall; whereas without global warming there would be. So, whether global warming results in an increase of decline in snowfall depends critically on the month and latitude.
  17. Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009
    jsmith @1 - you're confusing snowfall with snow cover. Although some places will receive more snowfall, due to higher temperatures, that snow will melt sooner, causing a decline in snow cover.
  18. Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009
    I don't get it. You say on another page that "Warming leads to increased evaporation and precipitation". So more warming = more snow. But here you say that it's the opposite, that snow cover is going down. Which one is it?
  19. Non-English climate science
    So Google Scholar does not have the option of narrowing down the search to the particular language just like regular google? That would eliminate the major problem with your survey due to 'climate' word being identical in many languages...
  20. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    Eric @10 - interesting info about Steward, thanks. Joe T @14 - I haven't researched Myneni's opinions specifically, although in a quick search I did stumble on this fairly interesting and relevant research.
  21. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    Dana At H. Leighton Steward's website, CO2isGreen.org, he says, "Empirical evidence shows that Earth is currently "greening" significantly due to additional CO2 and a modest warming." This is essentially the same argument that Matt Ridley made in his WSJ article that you dissected in your post of January 16. In the WSJ piece Ridley attributes this position to Ranga Myneni of Boston University. I was wondering if you were ever able to ascertain whether Myneni's views were accurately reflected in Ridley's article? And if this is Myneni's position, what evidence does he have to back it up?
  22. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    One difference between NASA and Quintana Minerals is that NASA is reasonably careful to provide a means of safe return for people being propelled into space. For the unfortunates who were recruited to crew this letter it seems their credibility is being left to burn on reentry from the intellectual vacuum in which they're now orbiting. A one-way mission; Quintana is happy to pay for PR Newswire "publication," clap the poor old chumps on their backs and send 'em to their fate. What happens to the steely-eyed ex-missile men when the experiment is over is a matter of no concern to Quintana; incinerated reputations come after the crew has been used up.
  23. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    So, they got rid of Apollo and went to a reusable space plane that ended up costing half a billion dollars per turnaround. Thirty years later they've farmed out their launch business to private companies that are making... Apollo, again. With such a record of success in their area of expertise, I can see why they are offering advice so far afield...
  24. Not in the pub yet at 04:03 AM on 26 January 2013
    Open Letter to London Mayor Boris Johnson - Weather is not Climate
    Boris though was talking about the UK, not the globe, so would a better graphic have been the 10 year moving average UK temperature from here ? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
  25. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    To the point that this group seems to be the work of H. Leighton Steward - Steward is also the head of PlantsNeedCO2.org, and this group is an astroturf concern troll group, run by Quintana Minerals. A recent 'whois' query returned the following: Registrant ID:44057767-NSI Registrant Name:Leighton Steward Registrant Street1:234 W BANDERA RD # 121 < snip > Registrant Email: it@quintanaminerals.com Pointing this out over at WUWT seems to have gotten me banned there. Tony seems particularly sensitive in his responses on this blog entry.
  26. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    Concerning Mr. H. Leighton Steward, the spokesperson for this group, I have also witnessed his efforts in Montana on behalf of our state's fossil fuel industries in order to discount the perils of CO2 emissions. Mr. Steward now presents himself as a scientific expert on the subject of climate change. He is, in fact, the Director of EOG, a gas and oil company formerly known as Enron. He is also the spokesperson for a fossil-fuel advocacy group called Plants need CO2, whose advertisements have been shown frequently throughout Montana. On June 9, 2010, he provided the citizens of Billings and the students of MSU Billings with a presentation sponsored by the Montana Petroleum Association, the Montana Chamber of Commerce and Big Sky Economic Development called Our atmosphere needs more CO2. For your inspection, his basic message can be found in 2010 issue of the Montana Treasure State Journal, the official publication of the Montana Petroleum Association, pages 28-32 (can be seen on the Web at: montanapetroleum.org/assets/PDF/articlesReports/2010-Treasure-State-Journal.pdf.) In all of his presentations, Mr. Steward assures us that the Earth’s temperature can increase by only 0.2 degrees C or less - even if we let carbon dioxide (CO2) levels increase .without constraints during the rest of this century and into the next. Thus, he is claims that the sensitivity of CO2 will always be less than 0.2 degrees C, even after CO2 levels reaches 1,000 ppm ! As can be seen in the article referred to above, Mr. Steward bases his version of "happy science" entirely on a century-old, over-simplistic theory that was discarded many decades ago by both theory and direct observations. His model is of no relevance to the real world because it accounts only for the absorption of infrared radiation by the greenhouse gases and does not also include the emission of this radiation by these same molecules within the atmosphere. Even Svante Arrhenius know better way back in 1986 ! In short, the leader of this group is a classic, oil-saturated pseudo-scientist doing his best to keep the oil flowing for as long as possible. Eric Grimsrud (web site at ericgrimsrud.com)
  27. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    This sort of denialism seems to suffer terribly from short term thinking. I'm forced to conclude that they are concerned about their retirement, but not the quality of life for future generations. While CO2 levels continues to rise, coherent long term thinking about the inevitable implications, underpinned by basic physics, is sadly lacking. (Present company excepted!)
  28. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    The stuff presented by this bunch so far shows exceedingly strong symptoms of denial. They say their objectives are to "determine to what extent human-related releases of CO2 into the atmosphere can cause earth surface temperature increases that would have unacceptably harmful effects" which is a laudable mission. But even in the Introduction to their mission, they are pre-empting their own work. On the strength of the existence of "competing points of view" that they consider to be a "professional conflict, they jump to the conclusion that "nations have prematurely accepted the AGW advocates points of view and conclusions as correct." In their belief actions to address AGW are misplaced unless we can be "certain of the reality of the conclusions on this subject." The quote from their Overview's conclusion in the SkS post above is remarkably also present in the Introduction to the same document! There they also say that reducing our CO2 emissions "may be trying to solve a minor or even non-existent future problem." Not a word that it is more likely to be a very major possibly-catastrophic future problem which their do-nothing policies will bring about. All strong symptoms of denial.
  29. littlerobbergirl at 22:13 PM on 25 January 2013
    NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    The problem is its an appeal to authority that actually works. I see 'NASA scientist' or particularly 'astronaut' and I get an involuntary physical response - tight throat, tear in eye, that weird chest feeling that is love and hope and happiness. I see earthrise, floating lady astronaut in cloud of hair, space walkers, tatooeen, I hear 'one small step', the music from 2010.. It bloody works! These are my childhood heroes. I feel betrayed.
  30. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    The organizer of this letter claims that 20 scientists contributed. Since they have not listed who they are, how can I know they are telling the truth? If they really have 20 people they need to tell us who they are. I could write a letter and claim 150 people back me up. Evidence of hteir claims is required.
  31. 16  ^  more years of global warming
    More proxy data. Available with no paywall is tree ring reconstruction and prediction results of Gray, et al in Geophysical Res. Letters 31, 1994, L12205; URL LINK 1. Calibrated tree rings versus known records during instrumental period, extended results into earlier times. Wind up with essentially a three dimensional graph (third dimension by color) between period, power, and year. 2. Most "power" appears between 40 and 70 years. Clearly, if real, this thing is no clean "70 yer cycle." One take home message, this. 3. The hair raising statistical unapproachability of such studies for the non expert is emphasized by the statement that they use a "multi-tapered method coherency spectra --- based on MTM analysis using red noise assumptions."
    Moderator Response: [RH] Hot-linked URL
  32. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    [...] comprised of renowned space scientists with formal educational and decades career involvement in engineering, physics, chemistry, astrophysics, geophysics, geology and meteorology. Many of these scientists have Ph.Ds.
    Oh, a Ph.D, is that all it takes? In that case, time to go back to school and get a Ph.D in musicology. Then I'll be just as qualified to comment on climate science as this lot. It's particularly sad to see this kind of credential-burnishing (as if a Ph.D, in and of itself, mattered in establishing one's credibility as a subject matter expert or authority) as it's a reliable indicator, at least in my opinion, of crank-style argument, if not outright crankdom. It also IMO shows up the difference between the illegitimate and legitimate appeal to authority in scientific matters: the former is a substitute for satisfactory evidentiary support, the latter is a complement to it.
  33. Bert from Eltham at 15:44 PM on 25 January 2013
    NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    I am a retiree from CSIRO. Even six months away from keeping up with Structural Molecular Biology did leave me somewhat in the dark. I could no more comment on the latest findings in Structural Biology as it is now nine years since I retired and that is an eternity in our field. I can only be an informed spectator now, not a participant. Us burnt out old Physicists should listen carefully to all the evidence from young whippersnappers like Dana and then ask more questions as we are stuck in our cognitive thinking in a world that we think is real. It may not exist anymore! What part did these retirees from NASA play in all the failed missions? Just asking. Bert
  34. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    I wonder how many of these anonymous NASA retirees worked in the assembly unit or were system engineers? Why is it that many people who call into question the established data sets turn out to have vast experience in engineering...? Is this about all about jobs and the paradigm of current industries? Where are the engineering futurist?
  35. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    "Honest and reasoned discourse, we have a problem!" "That's one small meme for the denial'o-sphere, one giant misrepresentation of the science by retirees who don't actually work within the discipline for mankind." This is where Walter Cronkite removes his glasses and weeps.
  36. Lessons From Past Predictions: Ridley vs. IPCC and Hansen
    Philippe, Doug: Then again, some people think that "critical thinking" is bad... vis-a-vis the GOP in Texas: Texas GOP Rejects Critical Thinking Skills Can't have those innocent kids thinking for themselves, can we? Another more recent example from the same state [of mind]: Teaching Bible as Fact
  37. Doug Hutcheson at 12:52 PM on 25 January 2013
    Lessons From Past Predictions: Ridley vs. IPCC and Hansen
    Philippe Chantreau @ 5, the average ability of the population for critical thinking is probably about as it always was. The problem is that we have mass media shaping public perceptions and the mass media is not there to give consumers accurate, or fair, reporting of issues. There is no profit in truth, it seems.
  38. Subcap Methane Feedbacks. Part 4: Speculations
    wili: I do recall that Shakhova was quoted saying something along those lines. But I think that there is considerable uncertainty about whether methane clathrates exist at very shallow depths on the ESAS and if there are clathrates there, but at greater depths, how the extra heat will penetrate suddenly to those depths to destabilize them. All that I have tried to show in the article is that there is evidence in the Laptev Sea that indicates that there is some fossil gas escaping through thick permafrost there. For all I know, that fossil gas could be in the form of methane hydrates below and/or within the permafrost. How much methane will be released from the ESAS and how quickly it will be released needs to be answered by further research, not by further speculation, at least not by me. It's obviously a big concern, though. As for how others are responding to this, I can't say. Joe Romm is certainly not happy that the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report will not include "the potential effects of the permafrost feedbacks on global climate". I would agree with Romm that this is very disappointing.
  39. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority
    This also begs the question: How many retired NASA scientists are there? NASA currently has 18,000 employees. They've been operating since 1958, so that's 55 years. Best I can gather there are something upward of 10,000 people who've retired from NASA over the years. So, this is coming from 0.2% of the retired scientists from NASA. You'd think if this was important (or merely even correct) they'd be able to muster larger numbers.
  40. Subcap Methane Feedbacks. Part 4: Speculations
    IIRC, Shakhova, whom you cite above, claimed in a lecture slide that 50 gigatons of methane from clathrates may be suddenly at any time. Am I wrong? Was she wrong? Or are you wrong? In any case, the combination of all three sources of methane (and CO2) you discuss here is certainly plenty to be worried about for the short and the long term. In particular, the MacDougal article you link to (just above your wonderful graphic) shows pretty clearly that permafrost emissions alone have likely already put us into a 'runaway' condition, where CO2 will continue to rise for a long time, no matter what we do. To be clear, I still think that means--more than ever, actually, that we should dramatically cut back on all ghg emissions. I've stopped flying, most driving and meat eating, have been active on a number of levels, and am considering civ disob this Feb. How are others responding to these news?
  41. Nature Confirms Global Warming and Temperature Record Accuracy
    Tron: Two old sayings (just to get started on an up-beat pace) - a person that has one watch always knows what time it is. A person with two watches is never quite sure. [They won't agree - which is right?] - when two measurements disagree, the most you can say is that at least one of them is wrong. [Both may be wrong.] ...but, to dissect the statement you are asking about, first let's consider the part that says "confirms the general accuracy of". The accuracy of the thermometer-based temperature record can be examined by looking at the details - the calibration of thermometers, placement, exposure (e.g. protection from radiation errors, etc.), regional sampling errors, etc. This has all been well-studied and overall the results are good. People keep studying this, and keep making tiny adjustments to methods of correcting known or newly-discovered errors, but these effects tend to be small. This tells us that the results are reliable. But how do we do another check? If you set up the same type of thermometers, in the same places, with the same exposure, and the same regional sampling, then getting the same result is not going to make you all that much more confident. [As an aside, that is why the BEST project is not considered by many to be ground-breaking: it's just a new way of combining the same numbers - a new mathematical combination. Contrast that check with another: one that doesn't use thermometers, uses different places, with different exposure issues, and different regional sampling. If this comes up with a different result, then you might say "hmmm. I wonder what is going on? What time is it, really?" One possibility would be that the instrumental record has larger errors than we thought. On the other hand, if it comes up the same result, then you are going to think "hey! This seems pretty robust. A completely different approach, yet it still shows the same trends. Perhaps we really do know what time it is!" Note the statement in the yellow box: "that the warming trend in the [instrumental temperature record] is supported by independent evidence." The "independent" part is important. Yes, it confirms the usefulness of the proxy, because we already had confidence in the instrumental temperature record. But it also increases confidence in the instrumental temperature record, because the proxy was developed independently. We're not making a copy of the watch, or calibrating to match the watch - we're determining time from something completely different, and coming up with the same answer.
  42. Nature Confirms Global Warming and Temperature Record Accuracy
    Tron Carter @8, you are exactly correct. The non-instrumental record is less reliable both because individual proxies respond to environmental factors in addition to temperature, and because the combined record has very few proxy series. Consequently there is very good reason to consider the instrumental record more accurate. However, for political reasons some people doubt, or purport to doubt, the accuracy of the instrumental record. This study is interesting, therefore, in that it shows their doubts for what they are - political posturing. It is also scientifically interesting in that it determined the temperature record without calibration. This holds the prospect of developing paleo-proxy series to determine past temperatures relative to modern ones without vexatious issues related to calibration.
  43. Nature Confirms Global Warming and Temperature Record Accuracy
    Hi everyone. I'm a long time reader, first time commenter so please... go easy on me. :P I have a question about the assertion made by this post's title and reworded in Dana's summary with the following statement:

    "The strong correlation between the two datasets confirms the general accuracy of the instrumental temperature record."

    This seems backwards to me. Of course, uncertainty exists in both types of datasets. However, isn't there greater uncertainty in the various proxy records than in the GTS and therefore this particular correlation would instead primarily strengthen confidence in the usefulness and accuracy of these proxy records? Am I wrong in thinking that the GTS is more robust than these individual proxy records? Maybe there is something else that I'm missing? I'm genuinely open to each possibility. Just trying to understand. Regardless, the figures are compelling and, assuming the methodology is robust,** the results do seem to lend even more credence to these types of proxy records... and secondarily, further verifying the instrumental record. ** Not trolling with the methodology comment. There's no reason to think otherwise but I'm always cautious to accept results without having seen the data myself. That's just how I roll. ;)
  44. 16  ^  more years of global warming
    curiousd @109, the wavelet analysis shown in Figure 2 b of Shanahan09 shows a 40 year period from 500 to 300 BC, then again from 100 to 200 AD, and again from 1000 to 1200 AD, and finally, just briefly around 1950 AD. I will leave aside my doubts that any mathematical analysis can show a genuine 40 year periodicity in a 10 year period. Instead I will focus on the very transient nature of this periodicity. Tamino has analysed similar attempts to find AMO periodicity in paleodata. His main point is that in picking out statistically significant periodicities, you need to allow for the fact that you are examining so many periods. Given essentially random fluctuations, if you examine enough periods you will find some during which, just by chance, the fluctuations will appear to be periodic with a given frequency. That is not significant unless the apparent periodicity is persistent. Ignoring the large number of periods examined is like making a hullabaloo over discovering a sequence of three dice rolls in a row where you roll a six and ignoring the fact that it occurred as part of a sequence of 100 throws over which the mean result was 3.5 and the rolls follow a poison distribution. It seems probable to me (although I have not, and cannot do the maths) that this very episodic 40 year periodicity will fall to the same criticism.
  45. Lessons From Past Predictions: Ridley vs. IPCC and Hansen
    Would it seem presumptive for climate scientists to criticize how the finance sector makes its predictions? If so, then why is the reverse so routinely accepted? We're in the middle of Great Depression II, which was led by the finance sector, which obviously misinvested large sums of 'money' it didn't really have. Beside formal government bailouts, Central Bankers are buying bank T-bills with made up money in the vain hope these financial wizards still know how to make proper investments in the stock market, which will 'trickle down' to the rest of the economy. That's the background for these same wizards claiming to school climate science about its conclusions, while their flagship news-magazines confidently claim that 'Fossil Fuels Green the Planet'. I'm going to have to reread 'Alice in Wonderland' and pay more attention this time.
  46. 16  ^  more years of global warming
    The right way to do the graph would be (temperature-enso) vs (forcing). The graph Tom showed was temperature response vs temperature. The temperature-enso term is the second graph in the post linked from my #106. I'll try and produce the numbers, but either I have to revive some R code or do a lot more work on the browser version.
  47. 16  ^  more years of global warming
    I'm certainly interested. Detecting a 70 year cycle in a 130 year record is pretty much a fools errand, but for a 40 year cycle you might begin to have a chance (although you'd have to be supremely confident that you had correctly separated out the volcanic signal first). When Tamino argued against the AMO he got some serious scientists arguing for it. I'm afraid I don't know anything about it beyond that discussion though.
  48. Was 2012 the Hottest La Niña Year on Record?
    Apparantly from Dana and Composer99's comments above, Tisdale's nit pick is correct. I cannot help noticing, however, that 2007 lies above the trendline for La Nina years, and below the trend line for neutral years. Classifying it as a La Nina year, therefore, would increase the trend for both. (While we are nitpicking.)
  49. Was 2012 the Hottest La Niña Year on Record?
    Link in #16 is broken (the URL should be clipped following the "year/" part of the string, if that makes sense). With reference to Tisdale's claims, he might be onto something with regards to the nitpick about whether 2006 is a neutral year or not. The NOAA website states:
    DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5°C for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
    The OP here cites NOAA as defining a La Nina year as:
    NOAA defines a La Niña year as one in which the first 3 months meet the La Niña criteria that the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is less than -0.5.
    (This is a paraphrase of the State of the Climate report.) Of course, even if that is the case, it's spun all out of proportion to its importance relative to what is known/not known about global warming. Certainly it offers no support to Tisdale's unphysical pet notion that ENSO drives the apparent global warming. Bottom line: - It looks (to me, anyway) that Tisdale is correct in pointing out that, by NOAA's own standards, 2006 is a La Nina year and is warmer than 2012. - After that, Tisdale's got nothing, insofar as he is trying to take an apparent error in classification and transmogrify it into a refutation of conclusions based on physics.
  50. Was 2012 the Hottest La Niña Year on Record?
    renewable guy @16 - I think Tisdale is correct that Figure 1 in this post is based on an older version of the ONI which has now been superceeded, and that by their definition (first 3 months being La Niñas), 2006 should be the hottest La Niña year on record according to NOAA. Based on my methodology, 2006 is a Neutral year. However, 2009 was a slightly warmer La Niña year than 2012, as noted in the post above.

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