Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024

Posted on 14 March 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4σ envelope of the 1982–2011 daily time series. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W m−2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analyzing climate and Earth system model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.

[Already. Bold ours]

Mapping of sea ice concentration using the NASA NIMBUS 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data from 1972–1977, Kolbe et al., Earth System Science Data:

We find that our sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic in the 1970s is generally higher than those available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), which were derived from the same ESMR dataset, with mean differences of 240 000 and 590 000 km2, respectively. When comparing monthly sea ice extents, the largest differences reach up to 2 million km2. Such large differences cannot be explained by the different grids and land masks of the datasets alone and must therefore also result from the differences in data filtering and algorithms, such as the dynamical tie points and atmospheric correction.

[Combined with the non-stationary nature of the "baseline" ice extent used to compute anomalies: where do we actually stand?]

How far can low emission retrofit of terraced housing in Northern Ireland go?, James et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:

This paper investigates the potential of retrofit to reduce and limit lifecycle GHG emissions resulting from an existing house, typical of one of the predominant housing typologies in Northern Ireland. Through the use of lifecycle assessment a range of retrofit scenarios are considered for an early 20th century, solid wall, terraced house, to understand the impacts of retrofit on lifecycle emissions. A range of retrofit scenarios were modelled and simulated, considering both embodied and operational emissions over the building's lifetime, to understand how net emissions can be reduced. The results show that although fabric and some technological measures can reduce emissions by over 60% when applied in isolation, a holistic approach is required to achieve the greatest reductions. Although operation remains the largest single source of emissions, the results also show the importance of taking a holistic approach to the assessment of retrofit with varying lifecycle stages responsible for considerable emissions. It is seen that emissions reductions of up to 99% may be possible when taking a holistic approach to retrofit and its assessment, considering whole-life emissions.

Living in the ‘Blue Zone’ of a sea-level rise inundation map: Community perceptions of coastal flooding in King Salmon, California, Richmond & Kunkel Kunkel, Climate Risk Management:

This paper uses the example of King Salmon, CA – a rural, low-income residential area projected to be one of the most at risk to SLR on the US West Coast – to examine how a community responds to external projections showing SLR risk to their homes and businesses. Through interviews with 17 King Salmon community members and observation of a county-hosted ‘communities at risk’ workshop, we examined the community’s social context, their past experiences with flooding, and their reaction to SLR projection maps including what next steps they would like to see taken. Residents expressed a strong connection to the place, noting that it is one of the few affordable places to live on the coast in California. We found that residents already live with regular flooding during larger tides of the year and have taken steps to adapt. We observed a strong generational component in responses to projection maps with many older respondents believing or hoping that they would die before the biggest impacts from SLR arrived. Residents expressed a lack of faith in government to address flooding concerns both at present and into the future, noting that general maintenance issues have gone unaddressed for decades. Many residents interviewed and observed seemed open or at least resigned to the possibility of relocation at a future undetermined time.

From this week's government/NGO section: 

Climate change opinion and recent presidential elections, Burgess et al., Center for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder:

The authors review patterns of climate change opinion and polarization and estimate the effect of climate change opinion on recent U.S. presidential elections. They found that climate change opinion has had a significant and growing effect on voting that favors the Democrats and is large enough to be pivotal to the outcomes of close elections. They project that climate change opinion probably cost Republicans the 2020 presidential election, all else being equal.

The AI Threats to Climate Change, Climate Action Against Disinformation, Check My Adds, Friends of the Earth, Global Action Plan, Greenpeace, and Kairos:

Silicon Valley and Wall Street love to hype artificial intelligence (AI). The more it’s used, they say, the more diseases we’ll cure, the fewer errors we’ll make—and the lower emissions will go. But there are two significant and immediate dangers posed by AI that are much less discussed: 1) the vast increase in energy and water consumption required by AI systems like ChatGPT; and 2) the threat of AI turbocharging disinformation—on a topic already rife with anti-science lies and funded by fossil fuel companies and their networks.

128 articles in 62 journals by 767 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Albedo-Induced Global Warming Potential Following Disturbances in Global Temperate and Boreal Forests, Zhu et al., 10.2139/ssrn.4435283

The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends, Ma et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5

Observations of climate change, effects

Comprehensive assessment of daytime, nighttime and compound heatwave risk in East China, Ding & Chen, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06504-5

Modulation of coupling climatic extremes and their climate signals in a subtropical monsoon country, Islam et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04892-z

Warming-and-wetting trend over the China’s drylands: Observational evidence and future projection, Li et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102826

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

An Improved Ensemble of Land Surface Air Temperatures Since 1880 Using Revised Pair-Wise Homogenization Algorithms Accounting for Autocorrelation, Chan et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0338.1

Brief communication: Significant biases in ERA5 output for the McMurdo Dry Valleys region, Antarctica, Garza-Girón & Tulaczyk, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1207-2024

In temperate Europe, fire is already here: The case of The Netherlands, Stoof et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01960-y

Influence of cloud retrieval errors due to three-dimensional radiative effects on calculations of broadband shortwave cloud radiative effect, Ademakinwa et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-3093-2024

Mapping of sea ice concentration using the NASA NIMBUS 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data from 1972–1977, Kolbe et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-1247-2024

Simplified equations for wet bulb globe temperature estimation in Bangladesh, Kamal et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8402

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study, Li et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06510-7

Global Future Climate Signal by Latitudes Using CMIP6 GCMs, Song et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003183

Unraveling the Role of Vegetation CO2 Physiological Forcing on Climate Zone Shifts in China, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107826

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Changes in External Forcings Drive Divergent AMOC Responses Across CESM Generations, Needham et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106410

Identification of optimal CMIP6 GCMs for future typical meteorological year in major cities of Indonesia using multi-criteria decision analysis, Bhanage et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1341807

Land surface conductance linked to precipitation: Co-evolution of vegetation and climate in Earth system models, Franks et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17188

Performance evaluation of surface air temperature simulated by the Beijing Climate Central Climate Model based on the climate complexity, Jin et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07137-x

Relationship between the Uncertainty of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Modes and Sampling Sizes in Climate Models, Shen & Lu, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0165.1

Understanding the Impact of Precipitation Bias-Correction and Statistical Downscaling Methods on Projected Changes in Flood Extremes, Michalek et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004179

Cryosphere & climate change

Augmenting daily MODIS LST with AIRS surface temperature retrievals to estimate ground temperature and permafrost extent in High Mountain Asia, Kim et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114075

Byrd Ice Core Debris Constrains the Sediment Provenance Signature of Central West Antarctica, Marschalek et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106958

Impact of boundary conditions on the modelled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet, Park et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024

Mapping of sea ice concentration using the NASA NIMBUS 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data from 1972–1977, Kolbe et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-1247-2024

The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Danielson & Bart, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024

Sea level & climate change

A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica’s sea level contribution in a synthetic setting, Bradley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01287-w

Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis, Jia & Sasani, Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06447-x

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A global analysis of reconstructed land climate changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Liu et al., Open Access 10.5194/cp-2024-12

High-resolution LGM climate of Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF, Russo et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-449-2024

Holocene thermal maximum paleofloods improve flood frequency analyses in the lower Tennessee River Basin (USA), Davis et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104412

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A 2,000-Year Record of Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) Colonization Shows Substantial Gains in Blue Carbon Storage and Nutrient Retention, Dahl et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb008039

A positive feedback to climate change: The effect of temperature on the respiration of key wood-decomposing fungi does not decline with time, Journeaux et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17212

An evolutionary innovation for mating facilitates ecological niche expansion and buffers species against climate change, Moore et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2313371121

Climate change and its effects on body size and shape: the role of endocrine mechanisms, Names et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2022.0509

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales, Malanoski et al., Science 10.1126/science.adj5763

Contrasting depth-related fine root plastic responses to soil warming in a subtropical Chinese fir plantation, Jia et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14286

Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas, Chust et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46526-y

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events, González?Trujillo et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14251

Foraging habits of Northwest Atlantic hooded seals over the past 30 years: Future habitat suitability under global warming, Vacquié?Garcia et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17186

Genomic signatures of climate adaptation in bank voles, Folkertsma et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10886

Improving access and use of climate projections for ecological research through the use of a new Python tool, Paz et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07186

Insights into carbonate environmental conditions in the Chukchi Sea, Hauri et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-1135-2024

Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories, Steenbeek et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004295

Marine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux, Gomes et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.08.11.553012

Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline, Modys et al., Communications Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43247-024-01283-0

Population-specific responses to developmental temperature in the arboviral vector Aedes albopictus: Implications for climate change, Carlassara et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17226

Seasonal and long-term climate drivers of tree species phenology and litterfall in a Nothofagus cool temperate rainforest of Australia, Vogado et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1358676

Southern Ocean food-webs and climate change: A short review and future directions, Queirós et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000358

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change, Klein et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46255-2

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A positive feedback to climate change: The effect of temperature on the respiration of key wood-decomposing fungi does not decline with time, Journeaux et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17212

Canal networks regulate aquatic losses of carbon from degraded tropical peatlands, Bowen et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01383-8

CO2 drawdown from weathering is maximized at moderate erosion rates, Bufe et al., Science 10.1126/science.adk0957

iLOSCAR: Interactive long-term ocean-atmosphere-sediment CArbon cycle reservoir model v1.0, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104413

Individual coal mine methane emissions constrained by eddy covariance measurements: low bias and missing sources, Qin et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-3009-2024

Microclimate explains little variation in year-round decomposition across an Arctic tundra landscape, von Oppen et al., Nordic Journal of Botany Open Access pdf 10.1111/njb.04062

Peatland evaporation across hemispheres: contrasting controls and sensitivity to climate warming driven by plant functional types, Speranskaya et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-1173-2024

Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest, Islam et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959

Six years of continuous carbon isotope composition measurements of methane in Heidelberg (Germany) – a study of source contributions and comparison to emission inventories, Hoheisel & Schmidt Schmidt, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-2951-2024

Soil respiration and controls in warmer winter: A snow manipulation study in postfire and undisturbed black pine forests, PACALDO et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.169279291.19911911/v1

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Variables controlling growing season carbon dynamics in desert shrub ecosystem, ?aylan et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04924-8

Water table depth and plant species determine the direction and magnitude of methane fluxes in floodplain meadow soils, Peacock et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11147

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Using remote sensing to map degraded mountain peatlands with high climate mitigation potential in Colombia's Central Cordillera, Battaglia et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1334159

Decarbonization

Future Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Wind and Solar Energy in China Based on an Ensemble of CORDEX-EA-II Regional Climate Simulations, Wu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040271

Meta-analysis of the greenhouse gases emissions of nuclear electricity generation: learnings for process-based LCA, Le Boulch et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 10.1007/s11367-024-02293-y

Potentiometry of wind, solar and geothermal energy resources and their future perspectives in Iran, Zahedi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04633-2

Social sustainability of biojet fuel for net zero aviation, Sharno & Hiloidhari, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101419

The first demonstration of entirely roll-to-roll fabricated perovskite solar cell modules under ambient room conditions, Weerasinghe et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46016-1

Uncovering the rapid expansion of photovoltaic power plants in China from 2010 to 2022 using satellite data and deep learning, Chen et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114100

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate change worry in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from two large-scale European surveys, Stefkovics et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100599

Did Increased Media Coverage of Climate Change and the COVID19 Pandemic Affect Climate Change Concern and Issue Salience in the UK in 2021?, Lampard et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2326433

Education outcomes in the era of global climate change, Prentice et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-01945-z

Emotions, worry, efficacy, and climate change–related sustainability behaviors among a representative sample of Texas and Florida residents, Garfin et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03658-2

How do sensemaking and climate change education affect climate engagement at the grassroots level? A study of five communities in Southeastern Ghana, Adobor, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03701-w

Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh, Freihardt, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6

The Renewable Energy Transition and “the People” – Exploring the Intersections of Right-wing Populism and the Renewable Energy Transition in Portuguese Media Discourses, Valquaresma et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2326423

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Advances and knowledge gaps on climate change impacts on honey bees and beekeeping: A systematic review, Zapata?Hernández et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17219

Agricultural Land-Use Increases Carbon Yields in Lowland Streams of the Congo Basin, Drake et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007751

An investigation of small and marginal holder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate variability and its determinants in coastal agriculture: evidence from east coast of India, Panja & Mukhopadhyay, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10118-4

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) adaptation, adaptation determinants and extension services synergies: a systematic review, Thottadi & Singh, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10113-9

Climatic zoning of yerba mate and climate change projections: a CMIP6 approach, Torsoni et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-024-02641-5

Factors affecting climate adaptation behavior among grain farmers in China, Wu & Xu, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04500-0

Hydrological investigation of climate change impact on water balance components in the agricultural terraced watersheds of Yemeni highland, AL-Falahi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04913-x

Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N₂O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937

Plastic film mulching increases crop yields and reduces global warming potential under future climate change, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109963

Ruminating on soil carbon: Applying current understanding to inform grazing management, Stanley et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17223

Soil N2O emissions from specialty crop systems: A global estimation and meta-analysis, Li et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17233

Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality-Based Model Evaluation, Müller et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003773

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A Climatology of Intensity Change and Translation Speed of Landfalling North American Tropical Cyclones between 1971 and 2020, Grondin & Ellis, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0184.1

Enhanced influence of tropical Atlantic Sea surface temperature anomalies on east Asian summer monsoon since the late 1970s, Jin et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07173-7

Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity, Berghuijs et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01953-z

Holocene thermal maximum paleofloods improve flood frequency analyses in the lower Tennessee River Basin (USA), Davis et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104412

Impacts of climate change on spatial drought distribution in the Mediterranean Basin (Turkey): different climate models and downscaling methods, Erkol et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04867-0

River water quality shaped by land–river connectivity in a changing climate, Li et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01923-x

The evolution of river systems under the influence of climate change and human activities in the endorheic zones during the Holocene, Gao et al., The Holocene 10.1177/09596836241236344

The response of global terrestrial water storage to drought based on multiple climate scenarios, Wei et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107331

Climate change economics

Articulating a Loss and Damage Fund: How the Global South is Rethinking Agency and Justice in an Age of Climate Disasters, Kamboh et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2327058

Climate change and economic development in Africa: A systematic review of energy transition modeling research, Blimpo et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114044

Does industrialization promote the emission mitigation agenda of East Africa? a pathway toward environmental sustainability, Yu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1305852

Shades of sustainability: decoding the impact of foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Africa’s growth trajectory, Boubacar et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04656-9

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Actors participation and power relations of REDD+ implementation in Bale Eco Region, Ethiopia, Chorito & Assefa, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2322962

Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts, Ashraf et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01941-3

Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China, Yan & Tong, 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1232

Exploring policy support for wind power development from a balancing perspective - A study of dynamic strategies based on evolutionary game, Liu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114061

How far can low emission retrofit of terraced housing in Northern Ireland go?, James et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad2c97

Institutionalism, the corporation, and the climate crisis, Ferguson-Cradler, The Anthropocene Review Open Access pdf 10.1177/20530196241227641

Modelling long-term industry energy demand and CO2 emissions in the system context using REMIND (version 3.1.0), Pehl et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-2015-2024

Status and trends of carbon emissions research at the county level in China, Ang-Zu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.003

Towards nexus thinking in energy systems modelling: A multi-scale, embodied perspective, Di Felice et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114052

Understanding the embeddedness of individuals within the larger system to support energy transition, Biely et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01230-y

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adaptation pathways for effective responses to climate change risks, Muccione et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.883

Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change, Gilmore et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100601

Developing behavioral models of citizens for adapting to and mitigating climate change: a study on four prefectures in Japan, Aoki et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1283946

Disaster risk management, climate change adaptation and the role of spatial and urban planning: evidence from European case studies, Farinós-Dasí et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06448-w

Heat waves, climate crisis and adaptation challenges in the global south metropolises, Barcellos, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000367

How do irrigation district managers deal with climate change risks? Considering experiences, tipping points, and risk normalization in northern Italy, Ricart et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100598

How to track progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation?: a stocktaking of Parties’ positions on measurement one year into the GlaSS work programme, Falzon, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2326852

Living in the ‘Blue Zone’ of a sea-level rise inundation map: Community perceptions of coastal flooding in King Salmon, California, Richmond & Kunkel Kunkel, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100596

Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast, McNamara et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46548-6

Traditional knowledge for climate resilience in the Pacific Islands, Nunn et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.882

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate adjusted projections of the distribution and frequency of poor air quality days for the contiguous United States, Wilson et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3937277/v1

How do childcare centers cope with heat? – Findings of a mixed-method approach from three German cities, Otto & Thieken, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100597

Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis, Kirk et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152

Other

Peatland restoration in Norway – evaluation of ongoing monitoring and identification of plant indicators of restoration success, Kyrkjeeide et al., Nordic Journal of Botany Open Access pdf 10.1111/njb.03988

Some feminist strands and their potential for the performativity of climate regulations: a review, Kyriacou, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101434

Trends of lightning flash density over India during different seasons, Prasanna et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8400

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0209.1

Bridging gaps in permafrost-shrub understanding, Wilcox et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000360

Build networked resilience across cities, Bai, Science 10.1126/science.ado5304

Feeding the future world, Williams, Current Biology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.cub.2009.10.045

Key components of sustainable climate-smart ocean planning, Frazão Santos et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-024-00045-x

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Clean Clicks or Dirty Chips?, Gary Cook, StandEarth

The authors examine the U.S. wave of factory expansion by the world’s four largest semiconductor manufacturers. They found that despite public commitments to 100% renewable energy across the IT sector and subsidies from federal and state governments, the rapid facility expansion underway is poised to fuel an unprecedented new demand for dirty energy in states where these factories are currently under construction. Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Micron rely heavily on unbundled renewable energy certificates (RECs) that do little to increase the supply of renewable electricity. Rather than following the approach used by Apple and Google to add renewable energy supply to power their fast-growing data centers, Intel and other semiconductor giants are using RECs to greenwash the massive carbon footprint of their semiconductor factories.

Climate Change in the Irish Mind, Wave 2 Report 1, O’Mahony et al., Environmental Protection Agency

95% of the Irish people think climate change is happening. By contrast, our latest national survey in the U.S. found that 72% of Americans think global warming is happening. (Note: The term “climate change” was used in Ireland, while “global warming” was used in the U.S.) 80% of the Irish public says that “most scientists think climate change is happening.” By contrast, 53% of Americans say the same. 81% of the Irish public is worried about climate change. In the U.S., 65% of Americans are worried. 78% of the Irish public says they discuss climate change occasionally or often with their families and friends. In the U.S., only 35% of Americans do. 74% of the Irish public says they hear about climate change in the media “at least once a week.” By contrast, in the U.S., only 28% do. 79% of the Irish public says climate change should be a very high or high priority for the national government. In the U.S., 56% of registered voters say the same.

The AI Threats to Climate Change, Climate Action Against Disinformation, Check My Adds, Friends of the Earth, Global Action Plan, Greenpeace, and Kairos

Silicon Valley and Wall Street love to hype artificial intelligence (AI). The more it’s used, they say, the more diseases we’ll cure, the fewer errors we’ll make—and the lower emissions will go. But there are two significant and immediate dangers posed by AI that are much less discussed: 1) the vast increase in energy and water consumption required by AI systems like ChatGPT; and 2) the threat of AI turbocharging disinformation—on a topic already rife with anti-science lies and funded by fossil fuel companies and their networks.

Beyond the Eye of the Storm. Mapping Out a Comprehensive Research Agenda for the National Security Implications of Climate Change, Bryan Frederick and Caitlin McCulloch, RAND

Climate change is on the verge of altering political, economic, and social systems in ways that could have far-reaching effects on U.S. security interests. There is growing awareness within the U.S. government that climate change could pose a serious national security threat. However, although the need to prepare for the physical effects of climate change on military operations and basing is well understood, how climate change might affect other aspects of international security has not been thoroughly studied. The authors argue that there is still an enormous amount to be learned about how climate change may affect U.S. national security. To help close this gap, the authors highlight specific areas that researchers should study further and illustrate how the impacts of climate change in these areas may affect both the Department of Defense as a whole and the Department of the Air Force specifically.

The unjust climate. Measuring the impacts of climate change on rural poor, women and youth, Sitko et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

The authors show for the first time, concrete evidence from 24 countries on the magnitude of the challenge posed by the climate crisis for rural people in socially and economically vulnerable positions due to their wealth status, gender, and age. They demonstrate that extreme weather events and long-run climate change are disproportionately affecting the incomes of rural people living in poverty, women, and older populations. As a result, climate change is widening even further existing income gaps in rural areas, pushing vulnerable people towards maladaptive coping strategies and ultimately making it harder for these groups to escape cycles of poverty and hunger.

Seasonal Attribution Report. An analysis of how climate change boosted temperatures worldwide between December 2023 and February 2024, Climate Central

Carbon pollution drove abnormal warmth experienced by 59% of humanity between December 2023 and February 2024. Roughly 80% of Earth’s population, 6.7 billion people, were exposed to unusual warmth linked to climate change. More than half — 4.8 billion people, approximately 59% — experienced at least one day of temperatures that would be virtually impossible without the influence of carbon pollution. For 1.7 billion people worldwide, daily temperatures during this span — meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere — reached the maximum level 5 on Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) at least 31 times. That equates to a month or more of abnormal warmth made at least five times more likely by the influence of climate change.

ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1- 2022: Energy Savings Analysis, Maddox et al., US. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Building Technologies Office

To meet legal requirements, the Department of Energy conducted a technical analysis to evaluate and quantify the expected energy savings associated with the American National Standards Institute; American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers; and the Illuminating Engineering Society's Standard 90.1-2022 (Energy Standard for Sites and Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Buildings). The authors document the methods, technical analysis, and findings supporting DOE’s determination on Standard 90.1-2022. The Standard includes a renewable energy requirement for the first time.

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Office of the Director of National Intelligence

The risks to U.S. national security interests are increasing as the physical effects of climate and environmental change intersect with geopolitical tension and vulnerabilities of some global systems. Climate-related disasters in low-income countries will deepen economic challenges, raise the risk of inter-communal conflict over scarce resources, and increase the need for humanitarian and financial assistance. Climate-related disasters and economic losses in low-income countries are poised to continue contributing to cross-border migration. Competition over access and economic resources in the Arctic, as sea ice recedes, increases the risk of miscalculation, particularly while there is military tension between Russia and the other seven countries with Arctic territory. El Nino weather patterns arc combining with :he effects of climate change and pre-existing vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure to worsen populations' exposure to flooding, drought, heatwaves, and intense storms. El Nino-related events arc projected to reduce global economic growth, resulting in more than $3 trillion in lost GDP during the rest of the decade.

Climate change opinion and recent presidential elections, Burgess et al., Center for Social and Environmental Futures, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

The authors review patterns of climate change opinion and polarization and estimate the effect of climate change opinion on recent U.S. presidential elections. They found that climate change opinion has had a significant and growing effect on voting that favors the Democrats and is large enough to be pivotal to the outcomes of close elections. They project that climate change opinion probably cost Republicans the 2020 presidential election, all else being equal.

Savings in Action: Lessons Learned from a Vermont Community with Solar Plus Storage, Manogaran et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The authors analyze field data from a deployment of solar-plus-storage (S+S) in a community of highly efficient homes in Vermont—the McKnight Lane community. The authors then use these data to quantify value streams of the existing S+S across stakeholders and use modeled results to show how additional value could be derived from these systems. The authors demonstrate how these value streams can be visualized and communicated across stakeholders using a novel scorecard.

Battery Energy Storage System Evaluation Method, Walker et al., US. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program

The authors describe the development of an effort to assess Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) performance that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) and others can use to evaluate the performance of deployed BESS or solar photovoltaic (PV) +BESS systems. The proposed method is based on actual battery charge and discharge metered data to be collected from BESS systems provided by federal agencies participating in the FEMP’s performance assessment initiatives. Long-term (e.g., at least one year) time series (e.g., hourly) charge and discharge data are analyzed to provide approximate estimates of key performance indicators (KPIs).

The Lifecycle Emissions of Electric Vehicles, Corey Cantor and Nikolas Soulopoulos, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Electric vehicles (EVs) have zero tailpipe emissions, yet the emissions associated with their manufacturing and use have raised questions regarding just how clean they really are. The answer: in all analyzed cases, EVs have lower lifecycle emissions than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. Just how much lower depends on how far they are driven, and the cleanliness of the grid where they charge. With zero-emission generation deployment rising globally, we expect that EVs will reach the breakeven emissions point with ICEs even earlier.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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