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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2021

Posted on 31 March 2021 by Doug Bostrom

Short sharp slap

In the world of child psychology it's agreed that smacking youngsters isn't productive even as a slap certainly fixes attention. Our planet is notionally governed by proclaimed adults however and perhaps the psychology is different in this context. Perhaps an unmistakable signal will help to change attitudes. In any case, in their succinct and pointed opinion piece for journal EcoHealth Weinstein & Daszak lay out their skepticism over humankind's collective effort to address the climate mess we've all helped to create,  beginning with a title  guaranteed to seize our focus and fully redolent of an adult who has lost patience. Failing Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change are a Futile Band-Aid that will not Stop Other Elephants Filling the Room delivers a synopsis of our failure modes and lends the effort a public health perspective:

As all of us working in public health know, particularly in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, fixing disasters after they happen is more costly and less effective than preventing them. Of course it is better to invest in fencing cliffs, rather than buying ambulances to deal with the people who fall off: every public health students knows that! But the social, economic, and political realities are such that there has been little to no investment in adequate fencing, which is why no significant progress has really occurred since the Paris Accord. Climate change is just one symptom of a far deeper malaise that our planet is dealing with—a decline to a future earth that may verge on uninhabitable for many of us. That decline, in our Anthropocene Era, during the ‘Great Acceleration’ has climate change as just one of a series of ecological insults to our planet that need critical work to reduce, wind down, and turn back (Steffen et al. 2015). This is why our current efforts to deal with climate change are no more than a band-aid, treating the symptoms of the Great Acceleration rather than the cause, and doing a poor job of even that. Band-aids on such a chronic underlying malaise are at best futile. At worst, they are a negligent misuse of our resources, and a frittering away of the critical time in which it will be possible to start reversing our decline. Indeed, they border on irrelevant compared to some of the other elephants in the room.

The entirety of Weinstein & Daszak's swift kick is open access, fully shareable to those  already in agreement and especially for other more productive venues where wishful thinking in all of its forms is holding us back from repairing our climate problem. 

104 articles

 Observations of climate change, effects

Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing
Kramer et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10506610.1

Recent Water Mass Changes Reveal Mechanisms of Ocean Warming
Zika et al 2020
Open Access DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0355.1

Observed trends in clouds and precipitation (1983–2009): implications for their cause(s)
Zhong et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-577

Linear and nonlinear trend analyses in global satellite-based precipitation, 1998-2017
Kazemzadeh et al 2021 Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001835

Satellite-observed decreases in water turbidity in the Pearl River Estuary: potential linkage with sea-level rise
Wang et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016842

Changes in below-cloud evaporation affect precipitation isotopes during five decades of warming across China
Wang et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033075

U.S. Extreme Precipitation Weather Types Increased in Frequency During the 20th Century

Recent global decrease in the inner-core rain rate of tropical cyclones
Tu et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22304-y

Increasingly severe cyanobacterial blooms and deep water hypoxia coincide with warming water temperatures in reservoirs
Smucker et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15618

Wet-to-dry climate shift of the Sichuan Basin during 1961–2010
Jia et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05734-8

Quantifying and projection of the relative impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow fluctuations
Dariane & Pouryafar 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03060-w

Observed Changes in Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over Brazil
Regoto et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7119

The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK
Publishing 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd9f2

Anthropogenic warming of Tibetan Plateau and constrained future projection
Zhou & Zhang 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abede8

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Contrasting observed atmospheric responses to tropical SST warming patterns
Mackie et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033564

Assessing local CO 2 contamination revealed by two near-by high altitude records at Jungfraujoch, Switzerland

Indicators of climate change impacts on the water cycle and water management
Peters-Lidard et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03057-5

A Closer Look at Power-Law Scaling Applied to Sea Surface Temperature from Scripps Pier Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Arctic Ocean freshwater in CMIP6 Ensembles: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export
Zanowski et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016930

Future changes in early spring wind speed and surface warming acceleration in snow-covered areas
Nosaka et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd034089

Nonlinear coupling between longwave radiative climate feedbacks
Huang & Huang 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033995

Enhanced climate response to ozone depletion from ozone-circulation coupling
Lin et al 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd034286

An ensemble of daily simulated runoff data (1981–2099) under climate change conditions for 93 catchments in Switzerland (Hydro-CH2018-Runoff ensemble)
Muelchi et al 2021 Geoscience Data Journal
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.117

Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate
Bevacqua et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10505310.1

Present and Future of Rainfall in Antarctica
Vignon et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092281

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models
Li et al 2020 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1013.1

The Brewer-Dobson circulation in CMIP6
Abalos et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-206

Quantifying and projection of the relative impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow fluctuations
Dariane & Pouryafar 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03060-w

Projected changes in wind speed and wind energy potential over West Africa in CMIP6 models
Akinsanola et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abed7a

Projection on precipitation frequency of different intensities and precipitation amount in the Lancang-Mekong River basin in the 21st century
Sun et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.001

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessment and Ranking of Climate Models in Arctic Sea Ice Cover Simulation: From CMIP5 to CMIP6
Shen et al 2021 Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0294.1

Bias correction of ocean bottom temperature and salinity simulations from a regional circulation model using regression kriging
Chang et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc017140

Effect of resolving ocean eddies on the transient response of global mean surface temperature to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing

Cryosphere & climate change

The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Rosier et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021

The influence of key climate variables on mass balance of Naimona’nyi Glacier on a north-facing slope in the western Himalayas
Zhu et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033956

Synoptic mode of Antarctic summer sea ice superimposed on interannual and decadal variability
Yu et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.008

Elements of future snowpack modeling – part 1: A physical instability arising from the non-linear coupling of transport and phase changes
Schürholt et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-72

Elements of future snowpack modeling – part 2: A modular and extendable Eulerian–Lagrangian numerical scheme for coupled transport, phase changes and settling processes
Simson et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-73

Biology & climate change

Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate
Nomoto et al 2021
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13727

Reduced frost hardiness in temperate woody species due to climate warming: a model-based analysis
Tao et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03074-4

Radial growth of Larix sibirica was more sensitive to climate at low than high altitudes in the Altai Mountains, China

Sensitivity of recruitment and growth of alpine treeline birch to elevated temperature
Du et al 2021 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108403

Spatial and temporal differences in the response of Larix sibirica to climate change in the central Altai Mountains

Foul-weather friends: Modelling thermal stress mitigation by symbiotic endolithic microbes in a changing environment
Zardi et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15616

Effects of climate change on a subtropical montane peatland over the last two centuries: Evidence from diatom records
Chen et al 2021 The Holocene
DOI: 10.1177/09596836211003220

The importance of warm habitat to the growth regime of cold-water fishes
Armstrong et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-00994-y

Plant genotype controls wetland soil microbial functioning in response to sea-level rise
Tang et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-41

Increasing shrub damage by invertebrate herbivores in the warming and drying tundra of West Greenland

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Critical inundation level for methane emissions from wetlands
Calabrese et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abedea

Impact of dust addition on the metabolism of Mediterranean plankton communities and carbon export under present and future conditions of pH and temperature
Gazeau et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-20

Hotspots of diffusive CO2 and CH4 emission from tropical reservoirs shift through time

Drivers of methane flux differ between lakes and reservoirs, complicating global upscaling efforts
Deemer & Holgerson 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2019jg005600

Radiocarbon Data Reveal Contrasting Sources for Carbon Fractions in Thermokarst Lakes and Rivers of Eastern Canada (Nunavik, Quebec)
Gonzalez Moguel et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005938

Global trends in air-water CO2 exchange over seagrass meadows revealed by atmospheric Eddy Covariance
Van Dam et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504484.1

Greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) at an urban background site in Athens, Greece: Levels, sources and impact of atmospheric circulation

Recent global land cover dynamics and implications for soil erosion and carbon losses from deforestation
Hu et al 2021 Anthropocene
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100291

Changes in carbon storage since the pre-industrial era: a national scale analysis
Janes-Bassett et al 2021 Anthropocene
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100289

Cumulative emissions accounting of greenhouse gases due to path independence for a sufficiently rapid emissions cycle
Seshadri 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05739-3

Comparison of uncertainty quantification techniques for national greenhouse gas inventories
Fortin 2021 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09947-4

Carbon cycle dynamics during episodes of rapid climate change

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Comparison of CO2 absorption performance between methyl-di-ethanolamine and tri-ethanolamine solution systems and its analysis in terms of amine molecules

Heterotrophic respiration and the divergence of productivity and carbon sequestration
Noormets et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092366

Above ground biomass carbon assessment using field, satellite data and model based integrated approach to predict the carbon sequestration potential of major land use sector of Arunachal Himalaya, India
Das et al 2021 Carbon Management
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2021.1899753


A two-step approach to evaluate drivers and barriers to clean energy policies: Italian regional evidence
Boffardi et al 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.03.006

Climate change communications & cognition

Natural gas – friend or foe of the environment? Evaluating the framing contest over natural gas through a public opinion survey in the Pacific Northwest
Hazboun et al 2018 Journal of Pharmaceutical and Biomedical Analysis
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(70)91964-1

Climate urgency: evidence of its effects on decision making in the laboratory and the field
Wilson & Orlove 2021 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2021.02.007

Risk Perceptions of Nuclear Energy, Climate Change, and Earthquake: How Are They Correlated and Differentiated by Ideologies?
Bian et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100297

Psychological dimensions of climate change: perceptions, collective efficacy, and responses in Berehet District, north Shoa, Ethiopia
Ayal et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03033-z

Hot dry days increase perceived experience with global warming
Marlon et al 2019 SSRN Electronic Journal
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102247

‘Seeing with Empty Eyes’: a systems approach to understand climate change and mental health in Bangladesh
Hayward & Ayeb-Karlsson 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03053-9

A Comparison of Government Communication of Climate Change in Hong Kong and United Kingdom
Ferranti et al 2021 Weather, Climate, and Society,
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-20-0123.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Livelihood resilience to environmental changes in areas of Kenya and Cameroon: a comparative analysis
Awazi & Quandt 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03073-5

Making climate information useable for forest-based climate change interventions in South Africa
Ofoegbu & Ifejika Speranza 2021 Environmental Sociology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/23251042.2021.1904534

Improving the effectiveness of agricultural extension services in supporting farmers to adapt to climate change: insights from northeastern Ghana
Antwi-Agyei & Stringer 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100304

The climate responsibilities of industrial meat and dairy producers
Lazarus et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03047-7

Role of the Finnish forest industry in mitigating global change: energy use and greenhouse gas emissions towards 2035
Lipiäinen & Vakkilainen 2021 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09946-5

Effects of biochar on methane emission, grain yield, and soil in rice cultivation in Thailand
Sriphirom et al 2021 Carbon Management
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2021.1885257

Farmers’ preferences for climate-smart cowpea varieties: implications for crop breeding programmes
Martey et al 2021 Climate and Development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1889949

Agricultural intensification and climate change have increased the threat from weeds
Storkey et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15585

Effects of extreme temperature on China’s tea production
Yan et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abede6

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Determinants of financial-risk preparedness for climate change: Case of Fiji
Saliya & Sri Wickrama 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.012

The relationship between economic growth, renewable and nonrenewable energy use and CO2 emissions: empirical evidences for Brazil
Amarante et al 2021 Greenhouse Gases
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.2054

Does globalization matter for environmental degradation? Nexus among energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission
Jun et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112230

Does carbon pricing reduce emissions? A review of ex-post analyses
Green 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9

Current carbon prices don’t stack up to much land use change, despite bundled ecosystem service co-benefits
Summers et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15613

Demand side climate change mitigation actions and SDGs: literature review with systematic evidence search
Roy et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd81a

Climate change impacts on human health

Burning embers: synthesis of the health risks of climate change
Ebi et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abeadd

Population exposure to precipitation extremes in the Indus River Basin at 1.5°C, 2 °C and 3°C warming levels
Jian–Ting et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.005

Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat
Ibbetson et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100307

Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis
Rafaj et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdf0b

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Modeling human migration under environmental change: a case study of the effect of sea level rise in Bangladesh
De Lellis et al 2021 Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001931

Assessment of future flood hazards for southeastern Texas: Synthesizing subsidence, sea-level rise, and storm surge scenarios
Miller & Shirzaei 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092544

Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
Nicholls et al 2021 WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.706

He who pays the piper calls the tune: understanding collaborative governance and climate change adaptation in northern Ghana
Dapilah et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100306

Climate-Change-Induced Disasters And Cultural Heritage: Optimizing Management Strategies In Central Europe
Cacciotti et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100301

Building-level Adaptation Analysis under uncertain Sea-Level Rise
Han 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100305

The adaptive benefits of agricultural water markets in California
Arellano-Gonzalez et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abde5b

Climate change impacts on human culture

Understanding the Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Tourism Prosperity: Conceptualization and Panel Data Evidence
Yong 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.009

Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods
Kam et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd26c


Bibliometric research on the development of climate change in the BRI regions
TAN et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.010

Early growing season anomalies in vegetation activity determine the large-scale climate-vegetation coupling in Europe
Wu et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006167

Variability of Surface Radiation Budget Components over the U.S. from 1996 to 2019 – Has Brightening Ceased?
Augustine & Hodges 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033590

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Recalculate the social cost of carbon
Wagner et al 2018 SSRN Electronic Journal
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01018-5

Failing Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change are a Futile Band-Aid that will not Stop Other Elephants Filling the Room
Weinstein & Daszak 2021 EcoHealth
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10393-020-01512-w

Recommendations for Future Research Priorities for Climate Modeling and Climate Services
Hewitt et al 2021 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0103.1


Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Articles are presented with a title link via the original publisher URL so as to preserve provenance information, and when (usually) available, a more permanent DOI link. When a publicly accessible PDF version of an article is found, a direct link is provided.


Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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