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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22, 2021

Posted on 2 June 2021 by Doug Bostrom

CO2 and staple crop nutritional quality

Dr. Kristi Ebi leads a diversely skilled author team to lend us a thought-provoking tap on the shoulder concerning our lack of full understanding of how increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will affect primary sources of food, particularly grains, and how we intend to maintain key nutritional qualities in the face of adverse effects as a result of more CO2 suddenly being available for plant metabolism. As indicated by supporting work in the article, early signs are that with increasing carbon dioxide in the air staple crops comprising  substantial dietary components for billions of people (we're all included, more or less) will show significant declines in nutrients mandatory for good health. Nutritional quality of crops in a high CO2 world: an agenda for research and technology development (open access) provides a very useful synopsis of concerns and then a welcomely unsubtle appeal to put more noses to the grindstone of research, so that we can anticipate these effects and understand how to cope with them.  This seems reasonable; it's not as though we're all over-nourished even at this juncture and with so many people living on the edge of their metabolic requirements we don't have any slack as it stands now. From the abstract, a prescription as concise as it is challenging: 

Transdisciplinary research involving at least ecologists, plant physiologists, economists, and experts in human nutrition is essential for developing a systems-based understanding of the potential impacts of rising CO2 concentrations for human nutrition and the attendant consequences for achieving the sustainable development goal on food security.

Let alone the main point of the work, Ebi 2021 reiminds us that when we hear somebody cheerfully chirping "but CO2 is plant food!" they're navigating onto a reef of complications. Follow references in the paper to learn about the complexities. 

Drive EVs faster?

In common with all human artifacts, mass production and employment of electric vehicles undeniably creates an environmental footprint, including CO2 emissions. Leaving aside spurious "solutions denier" arguments against electrification of road transport, the more we account for our impacts the better our future will be. Unlike 110 years ago when fossil-fuel powered vehicles exploded into use with barely a second thought we're now a bit sadder and a lot wiser about willy-nilly behavior involving millions of copies of bulky objects made from raw materials and needing copious energy to function.  In modern times, we do do the math on the messes we make— in advance. Hence we're assiduously trying to account for cradle-to-grave external effects of EV deployment at scale. In Global perspective on CO2 emissions of electric vehicles (open access) Märtz et al take a detailed look at how electrified road transport will fit into our overall remaining carbon budget (actually an enormous red figure on our balance sheet, it might be argued). Previous studies on this topic miss important details concerning expected transitions of our energy supplies to more modern sources. Factoring in ongoing updating and modernization away from primitive combustion-centered energy manipulation techniques, the authors find mashing the throttle pedal on electrification will more rapidly take us closer to where we need to be on our carbon budget. Here is a case where inclinations to overweening perfection are the enemy of "good enough to start." From the abstract:

The rapid uptake of renewable electricity generation worldwide implies an unprecedented change that affects the carbon content of electricity for battery production as well as charging and thus the GHG mitigation potential of PEV. However, most studies assume fixed carbon content of the electricity in the environmental assessment of PEV and the fast change of the generation mix has not been studied on a global scale yet. Furthermore, the inclusion of up-stream emissions remains an open policy problem. Here, we apply a reduced life cycle assessment approach including the well-to-wheel emissions of PEV and taking into account future changes in the electricity mix. We compare future global energy scenarios and combine them with PEV diffusion scenarios. Our results show that the remaining carbon budget is best used with a very early PEV market diffusion; waiting for cleaner PEV battery production cannot compensate for the lost carbon budget in combustion vehicle usage.

"Deploy, deploy, deploy." 

89 Articles

Physical science of climate change, effects

Natural Variability and Warming Signals in Global Ocean Wave Climates
Odériz et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093622

Observations of climate change, effects

More than a nuisance: measuring how sea level rise delays commuters in Miami, FL
Hauer et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfd5c

Tree mortality of European beech and Norway spruce induced by 2018-2019 hot droughts in central Germany

Obladen et al Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108482

Homogenization and trend detection of temperature in Iran for the period 1960–2018 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108482

Trends of daily extreme and non-extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded datasets over Mexico and the southern United States DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108482

Tree growth in Switzerland is increasingly constrained by rising evaporative demand
Trotsiuk et al Journal of Ecology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13712

Corals Reveal an Unprecedented Decrease of Arabian Sea Upwelling During the Current Warming Era
Watanabe et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092432

Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends
Zeng et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091626

Weakening of Antarctic Stratospheric Planetary Wave Activities in Early Austral Spring Since the Early 2000s: A Response to Sea Surface Temperature Trends
Hu et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-395 10.5194/acp-2021-395-supplement

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Far-field biogenic and anthropogenic emissions as a dominant source of variability in local urban carbon budgets: A global high-resolution model study with implications for satellite remote sensing
Schuh et al Remote Sensing of Environment
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112473

High-frequency monitoring of anomalous methane point sources with multispectral Sentinel-2 satellite observations
Varon et al Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/amt-14-2771-2021 10.5194/amt-2020-477

New approach to evaluate satellite-derived XCO2 over oceans by integrating ship and aircraft observations DOI: 10.5194/amt-14-2771-2021 10.5194/amt-2020-477

The nature of the trend in global and hemispheric temperatures
Triacca & Pasini International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7223

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Network-synchronization analysis reveals the weakening tropical circulations
Geng et al Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093582

Connections between mean North Pacific circulation and western US precipitation extremes in a warming climate
Huang & Stevenson Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001944

Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis
Coulombe & Göbel Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0324.1

Economic Shock in a Climate Scenario and its Impact on Surface Temperatures
Ran et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002061

Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6 models: contributions from different basins
Katavouta & Williams Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021

The Atlantic's freshwater budget under climate change in the Community Earth System Model with strongly eddying oceans
Jüling et al Ocean Science
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/os-17-729-2021 10.5194/os-2020-76

Dryline characteristics in North America’s historical and future climates
Scaff et al Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05800-1

Likelihood of compound dry and hot extremes increased with stronger dependence during warm seasons
Wang et al Atmospheric Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105692 10.1002/essoar.10505090.1

Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology
DeBeer et al Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/hess-2020-491 10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021

Nonmonotonic Change of the Arctic Ocean Freshwater Storage Capability in a Warming Climate
Wang et al Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090951

How frequent are Antarctic sudden stratospheric warmings in present and future climate?
Jucker et al Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10506407.2 10.1002/essoar.10506407.3 10.1029/2021gl093215

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation
Suarez-Gutierrez et al Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2576

Validating the Land–Atmosphere Coupling Behavior in Weather and Climate Models Using Observationally Based Global Products
Abdolghafoorian & Dirmeyer Journal of Hydrometeorology
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-20-0183.1

Improved simulation of mid-latitude climate in a new channel model compared to contemporary GCMs
Ray et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093297

Cryosphere & climate change

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?
Kääb et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021 10.5194/tc-2020-243 10.5194/tc-2020-243-supplement

Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Cryo?Cover
Brasher & Leathers International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7224

Recent contrasting behaviour of mountain glaciers across the European High Arctic revealed by ArcticDEM data
Ma?ecki
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-165 10.5194/tc-2021-165-supplement

Projecting permafrost thaw of sub-Arctic tundra with a thermodynamic model calibrated to site measurements
Garnello et al Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006218

Sea level & climate change

Non-stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate-change-driven Sea Level Rise
Sepúlveda et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002007

More than a nuisance: measuring how sea level rise delays commuters in Miami, FL
Hauer et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfd5c

Paleoclimate

Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives
Rae et al Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026

Past Warmth and Its Impacts During the Holocene Thermal Maximum in Greenland
Axford et al Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-081420-063858

Statistical characteristics of extreme daily precipitation during 1501 BCE–1849 CE in the Community Earth System Model
Kim et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2021-61

A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations
Wong et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23543-9

Biology & climate change

Coral bleaching response is unaltered following acclimatization to reefs with distinct environmental conditions
Barott et al Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2025435118

Tree mortality of European beech and Norway spruce induced by 2018-2019 hot droughts in central Germany
Obladen et al Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108482

Seagrass-driven changes in carbonate chemistry enhance oyster shell growth
Ricart et al Oecologia
DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-04949-0

Calcification in free-living coralline algae is strongly influenced by morphology: Implications for susceptibility to ocean acidification
Schubert et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-90632-6

Potential local adaptation of corals at acidified and warmed Nikko Bay, Palau
Kurihara et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-90614-8 10.21203/rs.3.rs-150437/v1

An empirical method to account for climatic adaptation in plant phenology models
Liang & Wu International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02152-7

Tree growth in Switzerland is increasingly constrained by rising evaporative demand
Trotsiuk et al Journal of Ecology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13712

Behavioural heat-stress compensation in a cold-adapted ungulate: Forage-mediated responses to warming Alpine summers
Semenzato et al Ecology Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/ele.13750

Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends
Hansen et al Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15665

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Global perspective on CO2 emissions of electric vehicles
Märtz et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf8e1

Sea Ice Suppression of CO2 Outgassing in the West Antarctic Peninsula: Implications For The Evolving Southern Ocean Carbon Sink DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf8e1

Soil microbial community response to permafrost degradation in palsa fields of the Hudson Bay Lowlands: Implications for greenhouse gas production in a warming climate
Kirkwood et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2021gb006954

High-frequency monitoring of anomalous methane point sources with multispectral Sentinel-2 satellite observations
Varon et al Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/amt-14-2771-2021 10.5194/amt-2020-477

Competing effects of nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on northern hemispheric terrestrial carbon uptake and storage, 1850–2099
Franz & Zaehle Zaehle Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-443 10.5194/bg-2020-443-rc1

Quantification of CH4 emissions from waste disposal sites near the city of Madrid using ground- and space-based observations of COCCON, TROPOMI and IASI DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-443 10.5194/bg-2020-443-rc1

Sources of nitrous oxide from intensively managed pasture soils: the hole in the pipe
Friedl et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfde7

Boreal forest soil carbon fluxes one year after a wildfire: effects of burn severity and management
Kelly et al Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15721

Year-2020 Global Distribution and Pathways of Reservoir Methane and Carbon Dioxide Emissions According to the Greenhouse Gas from Reservoirs (Ges) Model
Harrison et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006888

Towards monitoring CO2 source-sink distribution over India via inverse modelling: Quantifying the fine-scale spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006888

Simulating measurable ecosystem carbon and nitrogen dynamics with the mechanistically defined MEMS 2.0 model
Zhang et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3147-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-493 10.5194/bg-2020-493-supplement

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Geological storage of CO2–N2–O2 mixtures produced by membrane-based direct air capture (DAC) DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3147-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-493 10.5194/bg-2020-493-supplement

Perceptions of naturalness predict US public support for Soil Carbon Storage as a climate solution
Sweet et al Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03121-0

N supply mediates the radiative balance of N2O emissions and CO2 sequestration driven by N?fixing vs. non?fixing trees DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03121-0

What is the risk of overestimating emission reductions from forests – and what can be done about it?
Neeff Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03079-z

Utilization of biomass to promote calcium-based sorbents for CO2 capture DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03079-z

Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China
Xing et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23282-x

Aerosols

Aerosol above-cloud direct radiative effect and properties in the Namibian region during the AErosol, RadiatiOn, and CLOuds in southern Africa (AEROCLO-sA) field campaign – Multi-Viewing, Multi-Channel, Multi-Polarization (3MI) airborne simulator and sun photometer measurements
Chauvigné et al Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-8233-2021

Decarbonization

The persistence of flexible coal in a deeply decarbonizing energy system
Ding et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfd5a

Climate change communications & cognition

Communicating future climate projections of precipitation change
Daron et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03118-9

The impact of local temperature volatility on attention to climate change: Evidence from Spanish tweets
Mumenthaler et al Global Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102286

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Nutritional quality of crops in a high CO 2 world: an agenda for research and technology development 
Open Access pdf  DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102286

Who is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Induced Yield Changes? A Dynamic Long Run Household Analysis in Lower Income Countries
Wilts et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100330

Understanding variability in greenhouse gas emission estimates of smallholder dairy farms in Indonesia
Apdini et al The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11367-021-01923-z

Interactive effect of elevated tropospheric ozone and carbon dioxide on radiation utilisation, growth and yield of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.)
Singh et al International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02150-9

Perceived impacts of climate change on rural poultry production: a case study in Limpopo Province, South Africa
Nyoni et al Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1929803

Non-formal education promotes innovation and climate change preparedness among isolated Nepalese farmers
Coppock et al Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1921685

Hydrology & climate change

Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019
Singh et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03657-2

Climate More Important for Chinese Flood Changes than Reservoirs and Land Use
Yang et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093061

Regionally Different Precipitation Trends Over the Tibetan Plateau in the Warming Context: A Perspective of the Tibetan Plateau Vortices
Li et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091680

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Climate mainstreaming via national climate funds: the experiences of Bangladesh and Ethiopia
Bhandary Climate and Development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1921686

Investment incentive reduced by climate damages can be restored by optimal policy
Willner et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23547-5

Macroeconomic effect of energy transition to carbon neutrality: Evidence from China's coal capacity cut policy
Zhang et al Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112374

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change
MacDougall
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-136

A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions
Fujimori et al Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

Regulatory experimentation in energy: Three pioneer countries and lessons for the green transition
Schittekatte et al Energy Policy Danish utility regulator's anthology project series on better regulation in the energy sector
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112382 10.51138/eaho9911

Climate change impacts on human health

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Vicedo-Cabrera et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

Climate attribution of heat mortality
Mitchell Nature Climate Change The Lancet Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Research Letters Science of The Total Environment Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01049-y

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Education and adaptive capacity: the influence of formal education on climate change adaptation of pastoral women
Walker et al Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1930508

Indigenous adaptation to climate change risks in northern Ghana
Guodaar et al Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03128-7

Identifying increasing risks of hazards for northern land-users caused by permafrost thaw: integrating scientific and community-based research approaches
Gibson et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfc79

Solidarity Versus Security: Exploring Perspectives on Climate Induced Migration in UN and EU Policy DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfc79

Making nature-based solutions climate-ready for the 50 °C world DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfc79

Understanding systemic risk induced by climate change
Hui-Min et al Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.05.006

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union
Cottier & Salehyan Global Environmental Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102275

Other

Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina
Propato et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03129-6 10.21203/rs.3.rs-426169/v1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

What is the risk of overestimating emission reductions from forests – and what can be done about it?
Neeff Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03079-z

Envisioning ARPA-C:A Transdisciplinary Institution for Radical Climate Research and Intervention
Badia et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002115

 


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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Articles are presented with a title link via the original publisher URL so as to preserve provenance information, and when (usually) available, a more permanent DOI link. When a publicly accessible PDF version of an article is found, a direct link is provided.

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

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