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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2021

Posted on 2 December 2021 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

117 articles in 88 journals by 779 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Relative humidity gradients as a key constraint on terrestrial water and energy fluxes
Kim et al. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.31223/x59880

Improving Ground Heat Flux Estimation: Considering the Effect of Freeze/thaw Process on the Seasonally Frozen Ground
Wang et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jd035445

Observations of climate change, effects

Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change
Canadell et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4

Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature
Jain et al. Nature Climate Change

Precipitation climatology and spatiotemporal trends over the Arabian Peninsula
Alsaaran & Alghamdi Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Changes in the groundwater levels and regimes in the taiga zone of Western Siberia as a result of global warming
Savichev et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology

(provisional link) Strengthening Southern Hemisphere westerlies and Amundsen Sea Low deepening over the 20th century revealed by proxy-data assimilation

Ocean warming and accelerating Southern Ocean zonal flow
Shi et al. Nature Climate Change

Atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to severe haze in eastern China have shifted under climate change
Yang et al. Geophysical Research Letters

The effect of changing sea ice on nearshore wave climate trends along Alaska’s central Beaufort Sea coast
Nederhoff et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-343

Decadal change of extreme consecutive dry days in spring over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River around the early 2000s: The synergistic effect of mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Arctic sea ice
Zeng & Sun Atmospheric Research

Recent changes to Arctic river discharge
Feng et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27228-1

Observed spatiotemporal changes in air temperature, dew point temperature and relative humidity over Myanmar during 2001–2019
Sein et al. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

Rapid Atlantification along the Fram Strait at the beginning of the 20th century
Tesi et al. Science Advances
Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.abj2946

Long-term trends in extreme precipitation indices in Ireland
Ryan et al. International Journal of Climatology

Delayed Impacts of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss on Eurasian Severe Cold Winters
Jang et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science
Thorén et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03263-1

(provisional link) International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project: Extending the Record

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
McCrystall et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y

Intercomparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt
Hamed et al. International Journal of Climatology
Open Access 10.1002/joc.7468

Improving the estimation of human climate influence by selecting appropriate forcing simulations
Li et al. Geophysical Research Letters

Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change
Zhang et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access 10.1007/s00382-021-06064-5

Assessment of mudflow risk in Uzbekistan using CMIP5 models
Mamadjanova & Leckebusch Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100403

Climate change projection of wave climate due to Vardah cyclone in the Bay of Bengal
Bhavithra & Sannasiraj Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Anthropogenic influence on compound dry and hot events in China based on CMIP6 models
Wu et al. International Journal of Climatology

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection GCMA

On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives
Katzav et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03267-x

Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage
González-Rouco et al. Journal of Hydrometeorology

Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response
Steinert et al. Journal of Hydrometeorology

Evaluation of statistical downscaling methods for climate change projections over Spain: future conditions with pseudo reality (transferability experiment)
Hernanz et al. International Journal of Climatology

Midlatitude error growth in atmospheric GCMs: the role of eddy growth rate
Sheshadri et al. Geophysical Research Letters

Is there added value in the EURO-CORDEX hindcast temperature simulations? Assessing the added value using climate distributions in Europe
Cardoso & Soares International Journal of Climatology

(provisional link) Inter-model spreading of changes in East Asian winter monsoon circulation under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets

Alternative implementations of the “pseudo-global-warming” methodology for event-based simulations
Trapp et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Cryosphere & climate change

Transient Increase in Arctic Deep-Water Formation and Ocean Circulation under Sea Ice Retreat
Bretones et al. Journal of Climate

Mapping the sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Embayment to changes in external forcings using Automatic Differentiation
Morlighem et al. Geophysical Research Letters

Helheim Glacier Poised for Dramatic Retreat
Williams et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl094546

Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes
Mann et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01666-z

Antarctic fast-ice trends
Wake Nature Climate Change

Sea level & climate change

Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
Hauer et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27260-1

Marsh resilience to sea-level rise reduced by storm-surge barriers in the Venice Lagoon
Tognin et al. Nature Geoscience


Poleward Shift in Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Northwest Pacific during Warm Periods: Past and Future
Tao et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary
Ao et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27054-5

Changes in sulfur cycling in a large lake during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and implications for lake deoxygenation
Wang et al. Global and Planetary Change

California's Volatile Hydroclimate: Lessons From the Paleoclimate Record
Johnson Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl095512

Biology & climate change

A hierarchical approach to understanding physiological associations with climate
Anderson et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs
Tarling et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01667-y

Extreme temperatures help in identifying thresholds in phenological responses
Askeyev et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography

Shine a light: Under-ice light and its ecological implications in a changing Arctic Ocean
Castellani et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01662-3

Responses of biogenic sulfur compounds concentrations to dust aerosol enrichment and ocean acidification in the western Pacific Ocean
Gao et al. Geophysical Research Letters

Differential susceptibility of reef-building corals to deoxygenation reveals remarkable hypoxia tolerance
Johnson et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-01078-9

Shift in demographic structure and increased reproductive activity of loggerhead turtles in the French Mediterranean Sea revealed by long-term monitoring
Girard et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-02629-w

Altitudinal trends in climate change result in radial growth variation of Pinus yunnanensis at an arid-hot valley of southwest China
Zhou et al. Dendrochronologia

Climate-growth relations of congeneric tree species vary across a tropical vegetation gradient in Brazil
José Roberto et al. Dendrochronologia

Vertebrate population trends are influenced by interactions between land use, climatic position, habitat loss and climate change
Williams et al. Global Change Biology

Two divergent haplogroups of a sacsin-like gene in Acropora corals
Takahashi-Kariyazono & Terai Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-02386-w

Climate and land-use changes reduce the benefits of terrestrial protected areas
Asamoah et al. Nature Climate Change

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities
Campbell et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z

Thermal conditions predict intraspecific variation in senescence rate in frogs and toads
Cayuela et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Rapid evolution of life-history traits in response to warming, predation and competition: A meta-analysis
Grainger & Levine Ecology Letters

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Observation Based Budget and Lifetime of Excess Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-924

Carbon response of tundra ecosystems to advancing greenup and snowmelt in Alaska
Kim et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26876-7

Countries with sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions: an analysis of trends and progress by sector
Lamb et al. Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2021.1990831

Improved ELMv1-ECA simulations of zero-curtain periods and cold-season CH4 and CO2 emissions at Alaskan Arctic tundra sites
Tao et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021

Improving Predictions of Stream CO2 Concentrations and Fluxes using a Stream Network Model: a Case Study in the East River Watershed, CO, USA
Saccardi & Winnick Winnick Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506262.1

Assessing nitrous oxide emissions in time and space with minimal uncertainty using static chambers and eddy covariance from a temperate grassland
Murphy et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Enteric methane emission estimates for Kenyan cattle in a nighttime enclosure using a backward Lagrangian Stochastic dispersion technique
Wolz et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-021-03868-7

Equilibrium in soil respiration across a climosequence indicates its resilience to climate change in a glaciated valley, western Himalaya
Tiwari et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-02199-x

Methane in Zackenberg Valley, NE Greenland: multidecadal growing season fluxes of a high-Arctic tundra
Scheller et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-70

Sensitivity of steady state, deep ocean dissolved organic carbon to surface boundary conditions
Matsumoto et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Physical mechanisms for biological carbon uptake during the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (BOUSSOLE site)
Merlivat et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-315

Reconciling the Carbon Balance of Northern Sweden through Integration of Observations and Modelling
Sathyanadh et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Interannual variability of methane storage and emission during autumn overturn in a small lake
Ragg et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Quantification of CH4 coal mining emissions in Upper Silesia by passive airborne remote sensing observations with the Methane Airborne MAPper (MAMAP) instrument during the CO2 and Methane (CoMet) campaign
Krautwurst et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-21-17345-2021

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Trees outside of forests as natural climate solutions
Skole et al. Nature Climate Change

Effects of Conspiracy Rhetoric on Views About the Consequences of Climate Change and Support for Direct Carbon Capture
Bolsen et al. Environmental Communication


Are electric vehicles getting too big and heavy? Modelling future vehicle journeying demand on a decarbonized US electricity grid
Galvin Energy Policy

Location-specific co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction from coal-fired power plants in China
Wang et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27252-1

Economic, environmental and grid-resilience benefits of converting diesel trains to battery-electric
Popovich et al. Nature Energy
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-021-00915-5

Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
Luderer et al. Nature Energy

Geoengineering climate

Arguments and architectures: Discursive and institutional structures shaping global climate engineering governance
Boettcher & Kim Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.11.015

Black carbon

Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot–cirrus effect
Righi et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-21-17267-2021


(provisional link) Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP2Ex

(provisional link) Reduced effective radiative forcing from cloud–aerosol interactions (ERFaci) with improved treatment of early aerosol growth in an Earth system model

Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study
Whaley et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-975

Climate change communications & cognition

Communications in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report cycle
Lynn & Peeva Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03233-7

The role of public relations firms in climate change politics
Brulle & Werthman Climatic Change

Incendiary Humor: Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Politics in Wildfire Cartoons
Moret-Soler et al. Environmental Communication

Major Media Outlets and Climate Change Action: Comparing US Media Coverage of the Green New Deal
Bhatti et al. Environmental Communication

Are You Threatening Me? Identity Threat, Resistance to Persuasion, and Boomerang Effects in Environmental Communication
Ma & Hmielowski Environmental Communication

Effects of Conspiracy Rhetoric on Views About the Consequences of Climate Change and Support for Direct Carbon Capture
Bolsen et al. Environmental Communication

Hydrology & climate change

Understanding the uncertainty of the long-term precipitation trend under global warming through the water cycle
Tu & Lu International Journal of Climatology

Precipitation climatology and spatiotemporal trends over the Arabian Peninsula
Alsaaran & Alghamdi Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Spatio-temporal analysis of copula based probabilistic Multivariate drought index using CMIP6 model
Dixit & Jayakumar International Journal of Climatology

Spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes in Bangladesh during 1987–2017 and their connections with climate changes, climate oscillations, and monsoon dynamics
Ezaz et al. Global and Planetary Change

Recent changes to Arctic river discharge
Feng et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27228-1

California's Volatile Hydroclimate: Lessons From the Paleoclimate Record
Johnson Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl095512

Reduced Rainfall in Future Heavy Precipitation Events Related to Contracted Rain Area Despite Increased Rain Rate
Armon et al. Earth's Future
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507881.1

Climate change economics

Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
Riahi et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2

Protecting the poor with a carbon tax and equal per capita dividend
Budolfson et al. Nature Climate Change

Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
Drouet et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z

Climate action with revenue recycling has benefits for poverty, inequality and well-being
Budolfson et al. Nature Climate Change

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being
Creutzig et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-021-01219-y

Climate change mitigation public policy research

What makes people act climate-friendly? A decision-making path model for designing effective climate change policies
Otte Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Discounting under Severe Weather Threat
Cox et al. Weather, Climate, and Society

Do environmental regulations promote low-carbon diffusion among different scales of enterprise? A complex network-based evolutionary game approach
Wei et al. Carbon Management

Energy consumption and energy efficiency trends in Singapore: The case of a meticulously planned city
Su et al. Energy Policy SSRN Electronic Journal

Identifying buildings with rising electricity-consumption and those with high energy-saving potential for government's management by data mining approaches
Zhou et al. Energy for Sustainable Development
Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2021.11.001

Sustainable Power Generation in Europe: A Panel Data Analysis of the Effects of Market and Environmental Regulations
Bigerna et al. Environmental and Resource Economics

(provisional link) Probability-based accounting for carbon in forests to consider wildfire and other stochastic events: synchronizing science, policy, and carbon offsets

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research Climate change impacts on human health

Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation depend on strategic power plant retirements and pollution controls
Tong et al. Nature Climate Change

Climate change impacts on human culture

Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?
de Bruin et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423

Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
Hauer et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-27260-1


Climate and Seasonal Temperature Controls on Biogeochemical Transformations in Unconfined Coastal Aquifers
Cogswell & Heiss Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Climate ethics and population policy: A review of recent philosophical work
Cafaro WIREs Climate Change

Are fossil fuel CEOs responsible for climate change? Social structure and criminal law approaches to climate litigation
Gunderson & Fyock Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences

Demonstrating the potential of Picture Pile as a citizen science tool for SDG monitoring
Fraisl et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.034

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Meaningful climate science
Shepherd & Lloyd Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03246-2

(provisional link) The lesson learned from COVID-19 and the climate crisis is not to let experts decide on policies: a response to Robert C. Schmidt

Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
King et al. Nature Climate Change

Bridging research and policy
Chappell et al. Canadian Public Policy / Analyse de Politiques
Open Access 10.2307/3551544

Shaming as pressure
Yan Nature Climate Change Childhood Education CEA Critic Gender and Emotion Social Behavior and Personality: an international journal Ethnicity & Disease Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles Law & Policy Australian Journal of International Affairs Political Behavior
Open Access 10.1038/s41558-021-01241-0

Effective forest-based climate change mitigation requires our best science
Anderson?Teixeira & Belair Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16008


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

No New Coal by 2021, The Collapse of the Global Coal Pipeline (pdf), Littlecott et al., E3G, September 2021

National Recycling Strategy (pdf), US EPA, November 2021 

Net-Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts (pdf), Larson et al., Princeton University, October 2021

Climate Change in the American Mind (pdf), September 2021, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University, November 2021

Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options (pdf), Gibon et al., United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

Renewables 2021; Analysis and forecast to 2026 (pdf), International Energy Agency



Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does "(provisional link)" mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many "provisional links" will end up being corrected as part of this process. 


Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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