Skeptical Science New Research for Week #6, 2021

Posted on 10 February 2021 by Doug Bostrom

The myth of "temporal independence?" 

Nordhaus 1992 hs been a fat target for disagreement, perhaps especially because the resultant DICE was an early entrant and certainly the most ambitious effort of its day, hence highly conspicuous, widely adopted, possibly prone to oversights especially given its underpinning "school" of economics. Michael Grubb et al 1992 pointed out some static features built into DICE that might not pan out. 25 years have passed since those observations. Now, Grubb et al 2021 explore how certain features baked into DICE have been propagated in community "wisdom" and have cemented themselves into educational and policy settings despite their being essentially mythological, unsupported, and yet having profound effects on how our future will unroll: 

Twenty-five years ago, Grubb et al. (1995) argued that an important issue for such assessment could be the dynamic characteristics of energy systems. They suggested that energy systems had potential to adapt to emission constraints, but in ways constrained by their very long-lived and path-dependent nature. A quarter of a century on, we review the accumulated evidence and modeling developments concerning these issues and their implications for assessing the global costs, benefits, and optimal trajectories of climate change mitigation—the main objective of DICE and other “aggregate cost-benefit analysis” (Weyant, 2017) models (hereafter, termed “DICE and related stylized models”).

Our point is simple. Across the now huge and diverse literature on DICE and related stylized models, the vast majority share one common structural assumption: that the cost of cutting emissions in a given period is unrelated to the previous pathway, and does not affect the subsequent prospects. This we term an assumption of temporal independence. Our review explores three main characteristics of “dynamic realism” (inertia, induced innovation, and path dependence) which demonstrate this to be a “myth”—a common and convenient assumption which is contradicted by the evidence.

Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation fully walks readers through the implications of "getting it right" for economic models of dealing with climate change, and how attachment to myths may foreclose desirable future outcomes or at least make them far more expensive to realize. It's a large and complicated topic but the paper is remarkably digestible. Open access and free to read. 

Housekeeping

Additional article info: Most articles appearing in New Research now sport primary author and journal attributions. In some cases this information is not available via our automated assistance.

Notable authors: A lot of money changing direction is necessarily part of systematically dealing with anthropogenic climate change.  As with similar other events, there's strong incentive to help steer public policy in ways more favorable to legacy recipients of such money. Although rare, sometimes such activities become visible in academic publications. In New Research listings, an additional link denoted as "(author information)" may appear in a given article listing. This link is supplied for papers involving authors with a track record of serious conflicts in connection with their research on climate change, or bearing an outstanding debt in terms of having published papers with identified but unaddressed faults. This supplementary link will read to further reading on a problematic author's background information. 

115 Articles

Physical science of climate change, effects

Cold cloud microphysical process rates in a global chemistry–climate model
Bacer et al 2020 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-1485-2021

Impacts of multi-layer overlap on contrail radiative forcing
Sanz-Sanz-Morère et al 2021 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-1649-2021

Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

Observations of climate change, effects

Long-term variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Indian Ocean in relation to climate change and variability
Mohan et al 2021 Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103436

Geophysical Monitoring Shows that Spatial Heterogeneity in Thermohydrological Dynamics Reshapes a Transitional Permafrost System
Uhlemann et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091149

Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change

The recent increase in central eastern China summer rainfall and its possible mechanism
Choi & Kim 2021 Tellus A
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1803668

Where are Global Vegetation Greening and Browning Trends Significant?
Cortés et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091496

The Rate of Coastal Temperature Rise Adjacent to a Warming Western Boundary Current is Nonuniform with Latitude

Intensified drought enhances coupling between vegetation growth and pre-growing season precipitation in the drylands of the Silk Road Economic Belt
Hu et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005914

Spatiotemporal change of marsh vegetation and its response to climate change in China from 2000 to 2019
Shen et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006154

Multi-century tree-ring anatomical evidence reveals increasing frequency and magnitude of spring discharge and floods in eastern boreal Canada
Nolin et al 2021 Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103444

Permafrost change in Northeast China in the 1950s-2010s
Zhang et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.006

Poleward shift and intensified variability of Kuroshio-Oyashio extension and North Pacific Transition Zone under climate change
Navarra & Di Lorenzo 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05677-0

Meteorological Cause and Characteristics of Widespread Heavy Precipitation in the Texas Gulf Watershed 2003-18
Mullens 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7046

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Circulation over the South-East Greenland Shelf and Potential for Liquid Freshwater Export: a Drifter Study
Duyck & De Jong 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091948

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum
Zhu et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091220

Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming
Couespel et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-14 (preprint)

Strengthened causal connections between the MJO and the North Atlantic with climate warming
Samarasinghe et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504546.1

Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations

Potential influences of volcanic eruptions on future global land monsoon precipitation changes
Man et al 2021 Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001803

Climate change projection over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations
Fu et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.004

Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations

Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations
Torres-Alavez et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05671-6

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX
Wang et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05617-4 (preprint)

Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic
Belmadani et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05664-5

Projected Changes in Heat Waves over China: Ensemble Result from RegCM4 Downscaling Simulations
Xie et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7047

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Towards narrowing uncertainty in future projections of local extreme precipitation
Marra et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10505126.1

More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century
Maher et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package
Planton et al 2020 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0337.1

Assessing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainties in Future Meteorological Droughts from CMIP5 Models, Emission Scenarios, and Bias Corrections

Aerosol absorption in global models from AeroCom Phase III
Sand et al 2021 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-51 (preprint)

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa
Akinsanola et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105509

Optimally growing initial errors of El Niño events in the CESM
Xu et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05668-1

Cryosphere & climate change

A simple parametrization of mélange buttressing for calving glaciers
Schlemm & Levermann 2021 The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-531-2021

Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models
Mohrmann et al 2021 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-23 (preprint)

Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Donat-Magnin et al 2021 The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-571-2021

Permafrost change in Northeast China in the 1950s-2010s
Zhang et al 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.006

Paleoclimate

Atmospheric CO2 estimates for the Miocene to Pleistocene based on foraminiferal δ11B at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 806 and 807 in the Western Equatorial Pacific (preprint)

Response of biological productivity to North Atlantic marine front migration during the Holocene
Harning et al 2020 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-379-2021

Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene
Helama et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05669-0

Biology & climate change

Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming
Couespel et al 2021 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-14 (preprint)

Ocean acidification may slow the pace of tropicalization of temperate fish communities
Coni et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00980-w

The Rate of Coastal Temperature Rise Adjacent to a Warming Western Boundary Current is Nonuniform with Latitude

Spatiotemporal change of marsh vegetation and its response to climate change in China from 2000 to 2019
Shen et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006154

Divergent species-specific impacts of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 on vegetation water relations in an ombrotrophic peatland

Adaptive responses of free-living and symbiotic microalgae to simulated future ocean conditions
Chan et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15546

Spring phenology outweighed climate change in determining autumn phenology on the Tibetan Plateau
Peng et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7045

Climate refugia for kelp within an ocean warming hotspot revealed by stacked species distribution modelling
Davis et al 2021 Marine Environmental Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105267

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Reconstructing the pre-industrial coastal carbon cycle through a global ocean circulation model: Was the global continental shelf already both autotrophic and a CO2 sink?

Atmospheric-methane source and sink sensitivity analysis using Gaussian process emulation

Carbon emission from Western Siberian inland waters
Karlsson et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21054-1

Carbon fractions in the world’s dead wood
Martin et al 2020 
Open Access DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/scx3y

Effects of clearfell harvesting on soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in an upland Sitka spruce stand in England (preprint)

CO2 emissions from peat-draining rivers regulated by water pH (preprint)

Carbon dioxide and methane exchange of a patterned subarctic fen during two contrasting growing seasons
Heiskanen et al 2020 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-873-2021

Drought years in peatland rewetting: rapid vegetation succession can maintain the net CO2 sink function
Anonymous 2020 
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-215-rc2

Carbon and air pollutant emissions from China's cement industry 1990–2015: trends, evolution of technologies, and drivers
Liu et al 2020 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-631

Anthropogenic iron deposition alters the ecosystem and carbon balance of the Indian Ocean over a centennial timescale
Pham et al 2020 
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503292.1

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions complicate coastal blue carbon assessments
Rosentreter et al 2021 Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006858

Sequential abiotic?biotic processes drive organic carbon transformation in peat bogs
Fudyma et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006079

Permafrost organic carbon turnover and export into a high-Arctic fjord: a case study from Svalbard using compound-specific 14C analysis

Influence of hydraulic connectivity on carbon burial efficiency in Mackenzie Delta lake sediments
Lattaud et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006054

Carbon isotopic and lithologic constraints on the sources and cycling of inorganic carbon in four large rivers in China: Yangtze, Yellow, Pearl, and Heilongjiang
Shan et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005901

Microbial metabolic response to winter warming stabilizes soil carbon
Tian et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15538

No evidence for increased loss of old carbon in a temperate organic soil after 13 years of simulated climatic warming despite increased CO2 emissions

Inactive and inefficient: Warming and drought effect on microbial carbon processing in alpine grassland at depth
Zhu et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15541

Short-and long-term carbon emissions from oil palm plantations converted from logged tropical peat swamp forest
McCalmont et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15544

Large-scale importance of microbial carbon use efficiency and necromass to soil organic carbon

Greenhouse gas fluxes from Alaska’s North Slope inferred from the Airborne Carbon Measurements Campaign (ACME-V)
Tadi et al 2021 Atmospheric Environment
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118239

Rain-fed pulses of methane from East Africa during 2018–2019 contributed to atmospheric growth rate

Estimation of CO 2 emission factor for the energy industry sector in libya: a case study

Impacts of changes in commercial non-coking coal grading system and other coal policies towards estimation of CO2 emission in Indian power sector
Sarkar et al 2021 Carbon Management
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2021.1876529

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 aspirational target for soil carbon. A case study for France
Martin et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15547

Carbon dioxide utilization in concrete curing or mixing might not produce a net climate benefit
Ravikumar et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21148-w

Activated carbon-based composites for capturing CO2: a review

Carbon accounting for negative emissions technologies
Brander et al 2021 Climate Policy
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1878009

Black carbon

Quantification and implication of measurement bias of ambient atmospheric BC concentration
Li et al 2021 Atmospheric Environment
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118244

Aerosols

Ice nucleation by viruses and their potential for cloud glaciation
Adams et al 2021 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-474 (preprint)

The impact of aerosol size-dependent hygroscopicity and mixing state on the cloud condensation nuclei potential over the Northeast Atlantic
Xu et al 2021 
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-96 (preprint)

Aerosol absorption in global models from AeroCom Phase III
Sand et al 2021 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-51 (preprint)

On the Contribution of Fast and Slow Responses to Precipitation Changes Caused by Aerosol Perturbations
Zhang et al 2021 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1317 (preprint)

An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin
Redemann et al 2020 
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-1507-2021

Climate change communications & cognition

The More Who Die, the Less We Care: Evidence from Natural Language Analysis of Online News Articles and Social Media Posts
Bhatia et al 2020 Risk Analysis
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13582

Communicating potentially large but non-robust changes in multi-model projections of future climate
Zappa et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7041

Impact of a climate network: The role of intermediaries in local level climate action
Karhinen et al 2020 SSRN Electronic Journal
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102225

“We’re Going Under”: The Role of Local News Media in Dislocating Climate Change Adaptation
Bowden et al 2021 Environmental Communication
DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2021.1877762

Climate Change Observations of Indigenous Communities in the Indian Himalaya
Negi et al 2021 Weather, Climate, and Society,
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-20-0077.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Change in erosion potential of crops due to climate change
Auerswald et al 2020 JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108338

Climatic and non-climatic risks in rainfed crop production systems: insights from maize farmers of western Kenya
Kogo et al 2021 Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1867043

Climate change and extreme events on drainage systems: numerical simulation of soil water in corn crops in Illinois (USA)
C. R. Ferreira et al 2021 International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02081-5

Evaluating the climate resilience in terms of profitability and risk for a long-term corn-soybean-wheat rotation under different treatment systems
Eeswaran et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100284

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation
Grubb et al 2021 WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.698

Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics
Fiedler et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00984-6

Assessment of energy saving potential and CO 2 abatement cost curve in 2030 for steel industry in Thailand

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A fair trade? Expert perceptions of equity, innovation, and public awareness in China’s future Emissions Trading Scheme
Ying & Sovacool 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02961-0

Regional low carbon development pathways for the Yangtze River Delta region in China
Wu et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112172

The EU ETS to 2030 and beyond: adjusting the cap in light of the 1.5°C target and current energy policies
Zaklan et al 2021 Climate Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1878999

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications

Can labour migration help households adapt to climate change? Evidence from four river basins in South Asia
Maharjan et al 2021 Climate and Development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1867044

Harnessing indigenous knowledge for climate change-resilient water management – lessons from an ethnographic case study in Iran
Ghorbani et al 2021 Climate and Development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1841601

The evolution of empirical adaptation research in the global South from 2010 to 2020
Vincent & Cundill 2021 Climate and Development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1877104

Review of heat wave studies and related urban policies in South Asia
Kotharkar & Ghosh 2021 Urban Climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100777

Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia
MORI et al 2021 Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100309

Climate-informed decision-making for urban design: Assessing the impact of urban morphology on urban heat island
Santos et al 2021 Urban Climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100776

A review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in Thailand
Kiguchi et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abce80

The ‘politics of scale’ and the local: How ‘hyper-localism’ and ‘temporal passivity’ affect adaptation
Lambert & Beilin 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.003

Improving outcomes for socioeconomic variables with coastal vulnerability index under significant sea-level rise: an approach from Mumbai coasts
Pramanik et al 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01239-w

Entry points for addressing justice and politics in urban flood adaptation decision making
Eakin et al 2021 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2021.01.001

Potential adaptation strategies for climate change impact among flood-prone fish farmers in climate hotspot Uganda

Building local capacity to adapt to climate change
Myers et al 2016 Climate Change and Health
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-53742-9_2

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate change and climate migration: issues and questions around an in-transition Tunisian economy

Effect of climate zone change on energy consumption of office and residential buildings in China
Chen et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03544-w

Temporal changes in extreme precipitation and exposure of tourism in Eastern and South-Eastern Spain

The nature buffer: the missing link in climate change and mental health research
Dillman-Hasso 2021 Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00669-2

Other

Evidence for Clear-sky Dimming and Brightening in Central Europe
Wild et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092216

Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change
He et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05676-1

Global-scale changes in the area of atoll islands during the 21st century

The influence of climate change advisory bodies on political debates: evidence from the UK Committee on Climate Change
Averchenkova et al 2021 Climate Policy
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1878008

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Aerosols in current and future Arctic climate
Schmale et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00969-5

 

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How is New Research assembled?

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