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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2022

Posted on 28 April 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

We can't go on like this

Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales walks us through the improvements in methods between the IPCC AR5 and AR6 leading to the latest report's startling conclusion about our rapid, ongoing effect on global mean temperature. Unleashing the fossil hydrocarbon genie has raised the temperature of the planet in the blink of an eye. We've upped the temperature of the planet higher than it's been over the past 100,000 years, in only about 200 years.

Notably, our "success" with smashing records was assured by actual present day temperature increases over the period between assessment reports. Now, this particular jump if plotted against time would be a wiggle on a graph, but of late the wiggles as a collection trend up, rapidly departing the realm of the previous norm. Thinking about that in terms of comparison with 100,000 years of earlier lower wiggles should stop us in our tracks. 

How do we know this, and what have we learned about paleoclimate over the past decade to refine these comparisons? Darrell Kaufman and Nicholas McKay team up in Climate of the Past to produce a nifty, accessible synopsis of how our ability to see back in time has improved and resulted in better confidence in our understanding over the past decade, while we warmed the planet another 0.19 C. 

Other notables:

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales. Sea level rise and "adaptation" are a pair of huge certainties composed of many uncertainties— possibly the ultimate most challenging arena for policy volition, decisions and implementation.

Cascading effects of sustained low water on inland shipping. "Climate's always changed before." Sure, but it's never been abruptly broken by a civilization hinging on an enormous load of dependencies cantilevered from climate stability. Here's yet another collection of myriad reasons why consciously wreaking climate havoc is not a good idea.

Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector. The authors calculate that without careful attention, mitigation gains in CO2 will be significantly lost due to escape of hydrofluorocarbons. The subject country of the study is China but the problem is global.  

Significant underestimation of peatland permafrost along the Labrador Sea coastline. Another note in what seems a foreboding, steady beat of "oh, hey, look at this" in our GHG sources & sinks section. Thanks to warming we're mobilizing a lot of "zombie" organic carbon, and a lot of it will be visiting the atmosphere for some period of time— joining what we already don't need. 

All of the above open access and free to read. 

Also don't miss our weekly collection of reports from agencies and non-governmental organizations drawing from academic research, directly accessible here.

191 articles in 54 journals by 810 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

How many modes are needed to predict climate bifurcations? Lessons from an experiment
Dubrulle et al. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/npg-29-17-2022

Convective rain cell properties and the resulting precipitation scaling in a warm-temperate climate
Purr et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Observations of climate change, effects

Human influence on the 2021 British Columbia floods
Gillett et al. SSRN Electronic Journal

Different responses of soil respiration to climate change in permafrost and non-permafrost regions of the Tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2018
Pan et al. International Journal of Climatology

Exceptional heat and atmospheric dryness amplified losses of primary production during the 2020 U.S. Southwest hot drought
Dannenberg et al. Global Change Biology

Stratospheric Moistening After 2000
Konopka et al. Geophysical Research Letters

The Character and Changing Frequency of Extreme California Fire Weather
Prein et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507206.1

Natural variability has dominated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1900
Latif et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01342-4

Moraine-dammed glacial lakes and threat of glacial debris flows in South-East Kazakhstan
Medeu et al. Earth

High-elevation landforms are experiencing more remarkable wetting trends in Arid Central Asia
Zhang et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.007

Summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: Trend, variability and possible causes
Tan et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.003

Reconciling roles of external forcing and internal variability in Indian Ocean decadal variability since 1920
Hua et al. Geophysical Research Letters

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

Uncertainty in GRACE/GRACE-follow on global ocean mass change estimates due to mis-modeled glacial isostatic adjustment and geocenter motion
Kim et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-10628-8

Biases in the thermodynamic structure over the Southern Ocean in ERA5 and their radiative implications
Truong et al. International Journal of Climatology

Detection and characterization of coastal tidal wetland change in the northeastern US using Landsat time series
Yang et al. Remote Sensing of Environment
Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113047

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

More than six billion people encountering more exposure to extremes with 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
Qin Atmospheric Research

Biogeochemical Timescales of Climate Change Onset and Recovery in the North Atlantic Interior Under Rapid Atmospheric CO2 Forcing
Bertini & Tjiputra Tjiputra
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506160.1

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid-19 and Post-Pandemic Recovery Scenarios
Yu et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Land–atmosphere interactions in sub-polar and alpine climates in the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) models – Part 2: The role of changing vegetation
Mooney et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022

Features of climatological intraseasonal oscillation during Asian summer monsoon onset and their simulations in CMIP6 models
Wang et al. Climate Dynamics

Future evolution of global land surface air temperature trend based on CMIP6 models
Wu et al. International Journal of Climatology

Bias-adjustment of high-resolution temperature CORDEX data over the Carpathian region: Expected changes including the number of summer and frost days
Torma & Kis International Journal of Climatology

A Bioeconomic Projection of Climate-Induced Wildfire Risk in the Forest Sector
Riviere et al. Earth's Future

Projected changes in wind energy potential using CORDEX ensemble simulation over West Africa
K.O et al. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

CMIP6 model simulation of concurrent continental warming holes in Eurasia and North America since 1990 and their relation to the Indo-Pacific SST warming
Sun et al. Global and Planetary Change

Assessment of Central Asian heat extremes by statistical downscaling: Validation and future projection for 2015?2100
Li-Jun et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.007

Evaluation of multidimensional simulations of summer air temperature in China from CMIP5 to CMIP6 by the BCC models: From trends to modes
LIU et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.12.001

High impact compound events in Australia
Ridder et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100457

Influences of changing sea ice and snow thicknesses on simulated Arctic winter heat fluxes
Landrum & Holland The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022

Future Amplification of Sea Surface Temperature Seasonality Due to Enhanced Ocean Stratification
Jo et al. Geophysical Research Letters

Increased large-scale convective aggregation in CMIP5 projections: Implications for tropical precipitation extremes
Blackberg & Singh Geophysical Research Letters

Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming
Doan et al.

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Heavy footprints of upper-ocean eddies on weakened Arctic sea ice in marginal ice zones
Manucharyan & Thompson Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29663-0

Overestimated Terrestrial Carbon Uptake in the Future Owing to the Lack of Spatial Variations CO2 in an Earth System Model
Peng et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002440

Examining Parameterizations of Potential Temperature Variance Across Varied Landscapes for Use in Earth System Models
Waterman et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10509144.1

Evaluating observed and future spatiotemporal changes in Precipitation and Temperature across China based on CMIP6-GCMs
Lu et al. International Journal of Climatology

Systematic improvement in simulated latent and sensible heat fluxes over tropical oceans in AMIP6 models compared to AMIP5 models with the same resolutions
Zhou et al. Atmospheric Research

Development of early sea surface temperature biases in the tropical Indian Ocean in a coupled model
Gupta et al. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Revisiting BCC-SESM parameters sensitivity with BCC-CSM1.1 co2-concentration-driven simulations
Chang-Yi et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.03.002

Snow accumulation over the world's glaciers (1981–2021) inferred from climate reanalyses and machine learning
Guidicelli et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-69-supplement

Cryosphere & climate change

Heavy footprints of upper-ocean eddies on weakened Arctic sea ice in marginal ice zones
Manucharyan & Thompson Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29663-0

What induces the spatiotemporal variability of glacier mass balance across the Qilian Mountains
Zhu et al. Climate Dynamics

The impact of tides on Antarctic ice shelf melting
Richter et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022

No general stability conditions for marine ice-sheet grounding lines in the presence of feedbacks
Sergienko Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29892-3

Sea level & climate change

Rethinking Sea-Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences
Slangen et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002576

Modeling the impact of sea level rise on maximum water elevation during storm surge events: a closer look at coastal embayments
Kouhi et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03342-x

A newly reconciled dataset for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay
Shoari Nejad et al. Ocean Science
Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-511-2022

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales
van den Hurk et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403


Human forager response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka on the Atlantic coast of Europe
García-Escárzaga et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-10135-w

Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales
Kaufman & McKay McKay Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-911-2022

Global Changes in Terrestrial Vegetation and Continental Climate During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Korasidis et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021pa004325

Predicting the future of coastal marine ecosystems in the rapidly changing Arctic: The potential of palaeoenvironmental records
Heikkilä et al. Anthropocene
Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100319

Tropical peatlands in the anthropocene: Lessons from the past
Cole et al. Anthropocene
Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100324

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
Brambilla et al. Global Change Biology

Warming may extend tree growing seasons and compensate for reduced carbon uptake during dry periods
Grossiord et al. Journal of Ecology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.13892

Achieving the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce climate change risks to biodiversity in Central and South America
Manes & Vale Regional Environmental Change

Seasonal trends in adult apparent survival and reproductive trade-offs reveal potential constraints to earlier nesting in a migratory bird
Callery et al. Oecologia

A roadmap to integrating resilience into the practice of coral reef restoration
Shaver et al. Global Change Biology

Increasing Daytime Stability Enhances Downslope Moisture Transport in the Subcanopy of an Even-aged Conifer Forest in Western Oregon, USA
Drake et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Open Access 10.1029/2021jd036042

Managing for the unexpected: Building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change
Mina et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16197

Bio-optical depiction of a polar ocean under global change: Exploring the regional absorption traits
Kerkar et al. Global and Planetary Change

Warming induced tree-growth decline of Toona ciliata in (sub-) tropical southwestern China
Sharma et al. Dendrochronologia

Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models
Rodriguez-Cordero et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100407

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Global and regional carbon budget 2015–2020 inferred from OCO-2 based on an ensemble Kalman filter coupled with GEOS-Chem
Kong et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-183

A renewed rise in global HCFC-141b emissions between 2017–2021
Western et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-298

Coupling of Tree Growth and Photosynthetic Carbon Uptake Across Six North American Forests
Teets et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Overestimated Terrestrial Carbon Uptake in the Future Owing to the Lack of Spatial Variations CO2 in an Earth System Model
Peng et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002440

Impacts of Land Use Change and Atmospheric CO2 on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Evaporation, and Climate in Southern Amazon
Rezende et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

A new conceptual framework for the transformation of groundwater dissolved organic matter
McDonough et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29711-9

Are forest carbon projects in Africa green but mean?: A mixed-method analysis
Schmid Climate and Development
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2054400

Nutrient limitations lead to a reduced magnitude of disequilibrium in the global terrestrial carbon cycle
Wei et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Significant underestimation of peatland permafrost along the Labrador Sea coastline
Wang et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-38

Derivation and validation of top-down African biomass burning CO emissions and fuel consumption measures derived using geostationary FRP data and Sentinal-5P TROPOMI CO retrievals
Nguyen et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-193

CO2 emissions from biomass combustion Accounting of CO2 emissions from biomass under the UNFCCC
Pulles et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2067456

Estimating city NOX emissions from TROPOMI high spatial resolution observations – A case study on Yangtze River Delta, China
Xue et al. Urban Climate

Climate change increased the intrinsic water use efficiency of Larix gmelinii in permafrost degradation areas, but did not promote its growth
Chen et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector
Xue-Ying et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.006

Prairie wetlands as sources or sinks of nitrous oxide: Effects of land use and hydrology
Tangen & Bansal Hann Mushet Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Methane emissions from subtropical wetlands: An evaluation of the role of data filtering on annual methane budgets
Staudhammer et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Assessing the Socio-Economic Effects of Carbon Capture, Utility and Storage Investment From the Perspective of Carbon Neutrality in China
Chen & Jiang Earth's Future

Preparation, characterization, and performance of activated carbon for CO2 adsorption from CI engine exhaust
Maniarasu et al. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology

Contributions of mangrove conservation and restoration to climate change mitigation in Indonesia
Arifanti et al. Global Change Biology

Evaluation of projected carbon accumulation after implementing different forest management treatments in mixed-species stands in northern Maine
Puhlick et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2063761


Sensitivity of buildings’ carbon footprint to electricity decarbonization: a life cycle–based multi-objective optimization approach
Kiss & Szalay The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-022-02043-y

Addressing Biases that impact homeowners’ adoption of solar panels
Kunreuther et al. Climate Policy

Socioeconomic and demographic disparities in residential battery storage adoption: Evidence from California
Brown Energy Policy

Dynamic land use implications of rapidly expanding and evolving wind power deployment
Harrison-Atlas et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5f2c

Geoengineering climate

A re-radiation model for the earth’s energy budget and the albedo advantage in global warming mitigation
Feinberg Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
Open Access 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101267


Robust evidence for reversal in the aerosol effective climate forcing trend
Quaas et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-295-supplement

Global maps of aerosol single scattering albedo using combined CERES-MODIS retrieval
Devi & Satheesh Satheesh Satheesh Satheesh
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-521

Impacts of marine organic emissions on low level stratiform clouds – a large eddy simulator study
Prank et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-265

Clear-Sky Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Uncertainty Associated with Aerosol Optical Properties Based on CMIP6 models
Journal of Climate

Climate change communications & cognition

COVID-19 in the Time of Climate Change: Memetic Discourses on Social Media
Al-Rawi et al. Environmental Communication

Climates of democracy: Skeptical, rational, and radical imaginaries
Machin WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.774

On the differential correlates of climate change concerns and severe weather concerns: evidence from the World Risk Poll
Bruine de Bruin & Dugan Climatic Change

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System~
Ramos et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-10919-0

A Decreasing Trend of Nitrous Oxide Emissions From California Cropland From 2000 to 2015
Deng et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002526

Insect pest scenario in Uttarakhand Himalayas, India, under changing climatic conditions
Paschapur et al. International Journal of Biometeorology

A synthesis of nitric oxide emissions across global fertilized croplands from crop-specific emission factors
Wang et al. Global Change Biology

Assessing the impacts of agricultural managements on soil carbon stocks, nitrogen loss, and crop production – a modelling study in eastern Africa
Ma et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022

Effects of social capital on farmers’ choices of climate change adaptation behavior in Dazu District, China
Li et al. Climate and Development

Increased heat stress risk for maize in arid-based climates as affected by climate change: threats and solutions
Deihimfard et al. International Journal of Biometeorology

Nighttime CO2 enrichment did not increase leaf area or shoot biomass in cotton seedlings
Baker et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108931

Biophysical indicators and Indigenous and Local Knowledge reveal climatic and ecological shifts with implications for Arctic Char fisheries
Falardeau et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102469

Life history traits of Mystus vittatus in the Ganges River, Bangladesh: recommendation for its sustainable management considering climate change
Mawa et al. International Journal of Biometeorology

Hydrology & climate change

Intra-annual variation of high and low-flow extremes associated with land use and climate change in the Upper Tekeze of the Nile river basin
Reda et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Modeling the impact of climate change on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia
Teklay et al. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101278

High-elevation landforms are experiencing more remarkable wetting trends in Arid Central Asia
Zhang et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.007

Cascading effects of sustained low water on inland shipping
Vinke et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100400

The new historical flood of 2021 in the Amazon River compared to major floods of the 21st century: Atmospheric features in the context of the intensification of floods
Espinoza et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100406

Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Ob River Basin of the Arctic region from 1980 to 2017
Hu et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Detection and forecast of climate change effect on siltation using copulas
El Hannoun et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Climate change economics

Economic and GHG impacts of a US state-level carbon tax: the case of Hawai‘i
Coffman et al. Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2061405

Determinants, outcomes, and feedbacks associated with microeconomic adaptation to climate change
Bartelet et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01909-z

Heterogeneous impacts of GVCs participation on CO2 intensity: Evidence from developed and developing countries/regions
Zhi-Da et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.01.002

Carbon Dioxide Risk exposure: Co2Risk
Garcia-Jorcano et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100435

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Did Germany reach its 2020 climate targets thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Shammugam et al. Climate Policy

Driving through dense fog: a study of the effects and control of sustainable public procurement of electric cars
Langseth & Moe Environment Systems and Decisions
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-022-09854-2

Scenarios for mitigating CO2 emissions from energy supply in the absence of CO2 removal
Diesendorf Climate Policy

A systematic scoping review of Indigenous governance concepts in the climate governance literature
Wilson et al. Climatic Change

China's ETS pilots: Program design, industry risk, and long-term investment
Li et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.11.002

Implications of the consumption-based accounting for future national emissions budgets
Pan et al. Climate Policy

Research on the carbon neutrality governance under a polycentric approach
Tan et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.01.005

Will auctioning promote the renewable energy generation in China?
Zhao et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.11.005

City level CO2 and local air pollutants co-control performance evaluation: A case study of 113 key environmental protection cities in China
Qing-Yong et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.10.002

Toward green transition in the post Paris Agreement era: The case of Taiwan
Feng et al. Energy Policy

‘Technology not taxes’: A viable Australian path to net zero emissions?
Geroe Energy Policy

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Resilient California Water Portfolios Require Infrastructure Investment Partnerships That Are Viable for All Partners
Hamilton et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10508968.1

Beyond maladaptation: structural barriers to successful adaptation
Bertana et al. Environmental Sociology

Projecting the proliferation risk of Oncomelania hupensis in China driven by SSPs: A multi-scenario comparison and integrated modeling study
Gong et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.02.004

Adaptive capacity to extreme urban heat: The dynamics of differing narratives
Guardaro et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100415

Household external vulnerability due to climate change in Selangor coast of Malaysia
Ehsan et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100408

A systemic approach for climate risk assessment applied to thermoelectric power plants in northeastern coast of Brazil
Sousa et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100424

Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change: A case study of irrigation development in Kenya
Narita et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100426

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales
van den Hurk et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403

Designing fit-for-context climate change adaptation tracking: Towards a framework for analyzing the institutional structures of knowledge production and use
Njuguna et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100401

Identifying adaptation ‘on the ground’: Development of a UK adaptation Inventory
Jenkins et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100430

Climate change impacts on human health

Earth System's Gatekeeping of “One Health” Approach to Manage Climate-Sensitive Infectious Diseases
Dovie et al. GeoHealth
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gh000543

Changes in the Risk of Extreme Temperatures in Megacities Worldwide
Rupa Rajulapati et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100433

Climate change impacts on human culture

Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Canary Islands
Carrillo et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01880-9

Other Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Three visions of environmental apocalypse, or not.
Halley Conservation Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.13923

Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries
Baptista et al. Global Environmental Change

The ‘just transition’ threat to our Energy and Climate 2030 targets
Heffron & McCauley Energy Policy

Can Science-Based Targets Make the Private Sector Paris-Aligned? A Review of the Emerging Evidence
Bjørn et al. Current Climate Change Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s40641-022-00182-w

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2020, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

An emissions inventory that identifies and quantifies a country's anthropogenic sources and sinks of greenhouse gases is essential for addressing climate change. This inventory adheres to both (1) a comprehensive and detailed set of methods for estimating national sources and sinks of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and (2) a common and consistent format that enables Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to compare the relative contribution of different emission sources and greenhouse gases to climate change. This report, in conjunction with Common Reporting Format reporting tables that accompany the report, fulfill the U.S.’s annual commitment under the UNFCCC.

Climate Migration and Real Estate Investment Decision-MakingUrban Land Institute

The report focuses on a dimension of climate change that has yet to be fully incorporated in real estate investment decision-making: climate migration, or the relocation of people due to environmental change and the social and economic disruptions it causes. Climate migration presents profound societal challenges that are directly relevant for real estate investors for two core reasons.

Queued Up...But in Need of Transmission. Unleashing the Benefits of Clean Power with Grid InfrastructureU.S. Department of Energy

The report highlights the generation capacity seeking to connect to the nation’s transmission networks, illustrates the growing gridlock, and summarizes the need for and value of large-scale transmission infrastructure. The paper ends by highlighting potential solutions and policy actions that could help unlock the benefits of transmission for the nation.

Earth Day 2022. Public opinion on climate changeIpsos

Despite not being the top concern for the public, concern about climate change remains. The public are concerned about the impacts of climate change at home (68%) and abroad (70%). Yet, there is a lack of faith that we have the necessary plans in place and will make significant progress in tackling climate change in this next decisive decade. Only a quarter (27%) said that they had hear of COP26, and of those only around half (52%) said they had heard about the commitments that countries had made. A Global Country Average of just 39% agree their government has a clear plan in place for how government, businesses and people are going to work together to tackle climate change. People are divided on whether their country – or other countries around the world – will make significant progress on mitigating climate change in the next1 0 years. The public believe there is a shared responsibility among government, businesses, and individuals to tackle climate change. Some business sectors are seen as having a greater responsibility for reducing their contribution to climate change – particularly energy companies (82%), car manufacturers (80%), airlines (77%) and public transport providers (77%).

In the Dark: How Social Media Companies’ Climate Disinformation Problem is Hidden from the PublicFriends of the Earth, Avaaz, Greenpeace USA

For decades, the fossil fuel industry has poured millions of dollars into spreading climate disinformation online and offline to drive public polarization and stall action on the climate crisis. That’s why the latest UN Climate Reports say climate disinformation is a threat to climate action. The scorecard shows that social media companies are largely leaving the public in the dark about their efforts to combat the problem. There is a gross lack of transparency, as these companies conceal much of the data about the prevalence of digital climate dis/misinformation and any internal measures taken to address its spread. Pinterest and YouTube have taken notable steps to address climate dis/misinformation, whereas Facebook, TikTok, and Twitter trail behind in their efforts. All the social media companies fail to disclose comprehensive policies to combat climate dis/misinformation, including releasing weekly transparency reports that detail the scale and prevalence of climate dis/misinformation on their platforms and mitigation efforts taken internally; and providing thorough and consistent detail for the courses of action they take on repeat violators of their policies, especially in the context of climate dis/misinformation.

Batteries Included: Top 10 Findings from Berkeley Lab Research on the Growth of Hybrid Power Plants in the United States, Gorman et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

One of the most important electric power system trends of the 2010s was the rapid deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays, but a twist for the 2020s may be the rapid deployment of ‘hybrid’ generation resources. Hybrid power plants typically combine solar or wind (or other energy sources) with co-located storage. While hybridization helps to ease the challenge of balancing variable supply and demand, its relative novelty means that research is needed to facilitate integration and promote innovation. Combining the characteristics of multiple energy, storage, and conversion technologies poses complex questions for grid operations and economics. Project developers, system operators, planners, and regulators would benefit from better data, methods, and tools to estimate the costs, values, and system impacts of hybrid projects.

12.8 GW of Chinese overseas coal projects cancelled, but 19 GW could still go ahead, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

China’s “no new coal overseas” policy has already had a significant impact on coal power construction. Since September 2021, CREA found that approximately 12.8 GW (15 plants) of China-backed overseas coal projects were shelved or cancelled, following revised energy policies in host countries and withdrawals of Chinese firms. The newest National Development and Reform Commission guidelines for the greening of the Belt and Road Initiative have the potential to stop 37 GW (32 plants) of planned Chinese-backed coal in the pre-construction phase. In addition, projects under construction are recommended to proceed with caution, which should encourage the reexamination of 30 GW (36 plants) of projects underway. The guidelines encourage upgrades to operating coal-fired power plants in line with international green rules and standards, which should include 17 GW (18 plants) of operating coal plants with Chinese equity. Majority of overseas coal plants have followed lax host country standards, emitting levels of pollution far higher than China’s domestic allowances. 19.2 GW (18 plants) of planned projects fall into a grey area of China’s pledge.

European State of the Climate, Summary 2021European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Climate indicators provide the long-term context for the globe, Europe and the Arctic, and build on datasets and estimates that are brought together to provide a comprehensive multi-source reference, based on data from multiple sources. The ESOTC 2021 sections rely more extensively on the datasets provided operationally and in near real-time by the Copernicus Services, to give an overview of 2021 in he long-term context.

Heat Resilience Solutions for BostonCity of Boston, USA

The effects of climate change are not new to Bostonians. Boston is already experiencing the effects of increasing storm intensity, rising seas, heavier downpours, and hotter summers. These effects are projected to grow over the coming decades. The City of Boston is committed to equitably protecting residents from the climate impacts that we are experiencing and that we are projecting in the future. While the challenges of climate change are complex, Boston can take bold and creative action to prepare our residents, our neighborhoods, and our city for our changing climate, while advancing environmental justice and equity. Heat Resilience Solutions for Boston (the Heat Plan) presents the City’s action plan to prepare for the near-term and long-term impacts of extreme heat in a changing climate. As a product of the Climate Ready Boston initiative, the City’s ongoing program to prepare Boston for the effects of climate change, this plan provides an in-depth analysis of extreme summer temperatures during a recent heat wave and an all-of-government framework for strategies to reduce the risks of extreme heat. The plan helps accelerate Boston’s progress toward increased climate resilience, charting our course for protecting residents from the effects of extreme heat.

An “All-In” Pathway To 2030: Transportation Sector Emissions Reduction Potential, Zhao et al., America Is All In

The authors offer a deep-dive into emissions reductions potential from the United States transportation sector—and they find that the transportation sector can deliver one-fifth of the emissions reductions needed to successfully reach the Biden Administration’s climate target of 50-52 percent reductions by 2030 from 2005 levels. This reduction is significantly more progress than previous analyses had identified. With continued and accelerated efforts from cities, states, businesses, and the federal government, transport emissions could reduce by 34 percent or over 600 million metric tons of CO2 through the remainder of the decade.

Public Land Renewable Energy – Fiscal Year 2021 Report to CongressU.S. Bureau of Land Management

In fiscal year 2021, the Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Land Managment began upgrading the renewable energy program to enhance infrastructure permitting coordination and facilitate environmental reviews to responsibly support the national goal towards 25 gigawatts (GWs) of solar, wind, and geothermal energy on America’s public lands between 2021 and 2025. Apart from the western public lands and National Forest System (NFS) lands, vast contiguous areas available for onshore renewable energy deployment are sparse. Therefore, public lands and NFS lands have a unique role to play in meeting Congress’s direction under the Energy Act and the Biden–Harris administration’s goal of a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. This report describes the efforts initiated, activities accomplished, and the progress made toward achieving the national goal of 25 GW by 2025.

Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for A Resilient FutureUnited Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

The authors explore how, around the world, structures are evolving to better address systemic risks. In the face of accelerating climate change impacts, doing more of the same will not be enough. However, action is possible. This report shows how governance systems can evolve to reflect the interconnected value of people, the planet and prosperity. It outlines how actions such as changing what is measured to account for factors such as sustainability, the value of ecosystems and future climate change impacts can have a powerful effect, including unmasking dangerous imbalances in existing systems. Investment in understanding risk is the foundation for sustainable development. However, this needs to link to a reworking of financial and governance systems to account for the real costs of current actions. Without this, financial balance sheets and governance decision-making will remain fragmented, and will be rendered increasingly inaccurate and ineffective. The report also explores how designing systems to work with, not against, the way human minds make decisions can support accelerated action. Innate biases and mental short cuts can make people’s thinking myopic, or prone to inertia, oversimplification or herding when making decisions around risk. This helps explain why people, and the institutions they work for, can resist making good decisions about risk, even in the face of clear scientific data. These biases are particularly likely to kick in when risks are newly felt, and therefore unfamiliar, as is the case with many systemic risks such as climate change or a pandemic.

Boom and Bust Coal 2022. Tracking the Global Coal Plant PipelineGlobal Energy Monitor et al.

The world has more than more than 2,400 coal-fired power plants operating in 79 countries, for a total of nearly 2,100 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. An additional 176 GW of coal capacity is under construction at more than 189 plants, and 280 GW is planned at 296 plants. The directive for a fighting chance at a livable climate is clear—stop building new coal plants and retire existing ones in the developed world by 2030, and the rest of the world soon after, according to studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA), among others. Despite progress at COP26, coal’s last gasp is not yet in sight. In 2021, the operating coal fleet grew by 18.2 GW, a post-Covid rebound in a year that saw a slowdown in coal plant retirements. China continued to be the glaring exception to the ongoing global decline in coal plant development. At a time when developed countries should be helping the rest of the world both end new coal plant construction and begin their coal transitions in earnest, many are instead planning to operate their coal plants at home far beyond the deadlines required by climate science and are clinging on to the false promise of “clean coal” technologies. In addition, the amount of electricity generated from coal rose by 9% in 2021 to a record high, more than rebounding from a 4% fall in 2020 when Covid first struck. Both the global coal capacity increase and the record rise in coal power generation in 2021 crystallize how important the agreement at Glasgow to phasedown coal was—and how far many key players have to go.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.


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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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