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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022

Posted on 11 August 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

A most amazingly air-tight conspiracy

"Three may keep a secret, if two are dead." — Benjamin Franklin

Not research, but research-related. Skeptical Science reader John G. writes to point out an omission in our collection of rebuttals: "You are failing to rebut a prevailing narrative which blames a Globalist Elite for promoting CC as part of The Great Reset." 

Thank you John, and your point lands home; while we have a rebuttal for "climate scientists are in it for the money," a nebulous "globalist elite" seems a bit far afield of actual scientific climate research and misinformation. But indeed there's a connection. Leaving aside prosaic practical, logistical objections to the plausibility of a supra-national conspiracy we can still offer some numerical hints from the perspective of scientific literature, information suggestive of the absurdity of a "secret" plan in the face of statistical likelihood. 

A hypothetical perfectly executed secret plan is a challenge to disprove given that things that cannot be perceived are by definition beyond our ability to observe. However, the world of human affairs is composed of human nature. Our nature is such that keeping hermetically perfect confidences unseeable by any but  members of the "in" group becomes impossible even with fairly low numbers of participants.  Given more than a handful of participants and the passage of a little time, "secrets will out" because for all kinds of reasons we like to talk about ourselves.

We also are subject to often uncontrollable feelings of outrage. In situations involving high stakes, moral and ethical impulses kick in; there's extensive research literature on the secrecy-exploding phenomenon of whistle-blowing, because whistle-blowers are a prominent feature of organizational behavior. Documented cases are most often found in company with costly fraud. The larger, more cumbersome and more costly a deception, the more potential whistle-blowers necessarily will be included and the more likely they'll be "activated" and blow cover.

Meanwhile, "the globalist elite" covertly promoting "The Great Reset" apparently have foolishly laid all of their chips on one square: scientific research on climate change. The entire premise of the plot is completely rooted in this research. This entails a profound complication and serious challenge to the conspiracists' secret plan, given that people will blab for good or ill and the sheer number of individuals drawn into the plot by the plotters' overreliance on the scientific community. 

How big is this potential tripping point for managers of the "Great Reset?" Of late each New Research has included some simple weekly statistics, including the total number of contributing authors to each edition's collection of articles. This single week's author count is a minimum (DOI databases are not perfect) of 817.

These articles are the central purpose of each and every author's professional career; each article's readership and applications are carefully (arguably obsessively) observed by most participating authors. Right away we can see the problem: over the space of a single week, several hundred persons have been added to the Global Elite's nefarious plan. All must remain utterly quiet, regardless of whether they're active participants concocting fakery or guileless victims witnessing their work being devoted to dark ends.

It gets much, much worse for the poor old Global Elite. Newly published research articles progress our state of knowledge. In order to lay the foundations for whatever increment of enlightenment any given article provides, that article includes citations of earlier supporting work. As we're talking about scientific advancement, the "cutting edge," supporting research publications tend to be recent, also more or less carefully monitored by their respective authors. These persons also must be enrolled or duped into perfect silence. In the case of this particular edition of New Research (one week's enrollees) that's an additional minimum of 41,137 new participants.

Over a year's time many of these authors will feature more than once, but it's safe to say that in that short span hundreds of thousands of witting or unwitting accomplices are added to the Elites' nefarious plan, all remaining perfectly silent, or completely failing to notice that their work is being misrepresented. This has supposedly been going on with flawless reliability for decades. 

It's worth noting: these eyepopping figures take into account only the authors of  first-level citations. Each cited work itself of course leans on yet more authors. Perfidy and/or gullibility all the way down to Isaac Newton and earlier, apparently— or so we're supposed to believe.

But wait: there's more. Not only must all of these people remain silent, but somehow— whether accidentally or on purpose-- the entire collective arc of facts, figures, predictions and observations must be pretty much wholly consistent and coherent, a seamless forgery indectable even to the best-trained eye. For this week alone  a minimum of 8,951 articles must neatly mesh in agreement even while not being true.  Simultaneously they're only the tip of a pyramid of smooth, factual, predictive continuum of research findings embodied in yet more layered citations, leading to such matters as g=9.8 m/s/s and all the rest of our real-world underpinnings.

How this prodigious and seemingly impossible conundrum and effort is accomplished as a matter of cryptic intent without any leakage of collusive communications is a true mystery. 

Or— just perhaps— maybe it's more believable that no such scheme exists? A moment's thought leads to an obvious conclusion: a "global elite" (or for that matter anybody with common sense) would never be so stupid as to invest their faith in such an far-fetched, automatically faulty concept. Hundreds of thousands of scientists trained to delight in saying "you're wrong," all sitting on their hands in an ocean of errors and yet obediently quiet? Tell us another one.


The Late-Eighteenth-Century Climate of Cape Town, South Africa, Based on the Dutch East India Company “Day Registers” (1773–91). A history of commerce, colonization and exploitation leads to recovery of valuable climate data, hundreds of years later. 

Retail Electricity Rates Under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. From our government/NGO reports section, some numbers on how modernization of energy supplies will help US wallets. 

Estimating the environmental impacts of 57,000 food products. More fodder for a favorite topic to chew the fat over: what's OK for dinner?

Reviewing the ecological impacts of offshore wind farms. We're exiting one poorly considered and hastily implemented energy technology. Now we know better. This article is what judicious, circumspect adoption of newer & better systems looks like. Better doesn't mean perfect, better can be done worse or better. 

137 articles in 63 journals by 817 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Effect of the Late-1990s Change in Tropical Forcing on Teleconnections to the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas Region during Austral Autumn
Guo et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0965.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Analysis of long-term trends and variations in extreme high air temperatures in May over Turkey and a record-breaking heatwave event of May 2020
Erlat et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7821

Assessing agrometeorological drought trends in Iran during 1985–2018
Isfahani et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04159-5

Climate change impacts on reference evapotranspiration in South Korea over the recent 100 years
Jeon et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04152-y

Climate mobilities into cities: A systematic review of literature from 2011 to 2020
Chung et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101252

Correction to: Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline
Li & Fedorov, Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06433-8

Diverse variations in middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere spring phenology sensitivity to diurnal temperature during 1982-2015
Deng et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7827

Evaluating global and regional land warming trends in the past decades with both MODIS and ERA5-Land land surface temperature data
Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113181

Monitoring sudden stratospheric warmings under climate change based on reanalysis data verified by radio occultation
Li et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-497

Ongoing grounding line retreat and fracturing initiated at the Petermann Glacier ice shelf, Greenland, after 2016
Millan et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3021-2022

Rapid 20th century warming reverses 900-year cooling in the Gulf of Maine
Whitney et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00504-8

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A simple approach for the study of the relationship between temperature and precipitation
Rodrigo, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04154-w

Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems interactions – From key concepts to model implementation with OSeMOSYS
Ramos et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.07.007

Data driven approach on in-situ soil carbon measurement
Acharya et al., Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2106310

Evaluation of aerosol optical depths and clear-sky radiative fluxes of the CERES Edition 4.1 SYN1deg data product
Fillmore et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-283

Strong correspondence in evapotranspiration and carbon dioxide fluxes between different eddy covariance systems enables quantification of landscape heterogeneity in dryland fluxes
Cunliffe et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jg006240

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales with Agricultural Intensity
Coffel et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2021gl097135

Evaluation and joint projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Canada based on Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling and large ensembles of regional climate simulations
Singh et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100443

Future projections of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over East Asia for the carbon neutrality period of 2050-2060
Zhang & Chen Chen, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04155-9

Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming
Katzenberger et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098856

Interdecadal Changes of the South Asian High in CMIP5/6 and Projection of Its Future Changes
Zhang et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0921.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An Investigation of the Effective Climate Sensitivity in GFDL’s New Climate Models CM4.0 and SPEAR
Zhao, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0327.1

ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP6 Models
Zhao & Sun, Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0835.1

Errors in simple climate model emulations of past and future global temperature change
Jackson et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511003.1

Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study
Passos et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06437-4

Metrics for Evaluating CMIP6 Representation of Daily Precipitation Probability Distributions
Martinez-Villalobos et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0617.1

Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability on historical climate
Schurer et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2022-55

Training a supermodel with noisy and sparse observations: a case study with CPT and the synch rule on SPEEDO – v.1
Schevenhoven & Carrassi Carrassi, Geoscientific Model Development, Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-15-3831-2022

Cryosphere & climate change

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
Berdahl et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-156

Multi-annual temperature evolution and implications for cave ice development in a sag-type ice cave in the Austrian Alps
Wind et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3163-2022

Ongoing grounding line retreat and fracturing initiated at the Petermann Glacier ice shelf, Greenland, after 2016
Millan et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3021-2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change
Stokes et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0

Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Mosbeux et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-153

Thickness of multi-year sea ice on the northern Canadian polar shelf: a second look after 40 years
Melling, The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3181-2022


Bottom water oxygenation changes in the southwestern Indian Ocean as an indicator for enhanced respired carbon storage since the last glacial inception
Amsler et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-1797-2022

Carbon Fluxes during Dansgaard–Oeschger Events as Simulated by an Earth System Model
Jochum et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0713.1

Compilation of Southern Ocean sea-ice records covering the last glacial-interglacial cycle (12–130 ka)
Chadwick et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-1815-2022

Ecological and environmental stability in offshore Southern California Marine Basins through the Holocene
Palmer et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10508818.2

Evidence for a relatively warm mid-to late Holocene on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Feng et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098740

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model
Lucarini et al., Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/npg-29-183-2022

Relative sea-level data preclude major late Holocene ice-mass change in Pine Island Bay
Braddock et al., Nature Geoscience, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-022-00961-y

The Late-Eighteenth-Century Climate of Cape Town, South Africa, Based on the Dutch East India Company “Day Registers” (1773–91)
Grab & Williams, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0127.1

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Divergent responses of autumn vegetation phenology to climate extremes over northern middle and high latitudes
Wang et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13583

Dominance by non-native grasses suppresses long-term shifts in plant species composition and productivity in response to global change
Craig & Henry, Oecologia, 10.1007/s00442-022-05238-0

Eastern monarch larval performance may not be affected by shifts in phenological synchrony with milkweed
Gilmour & Kharouba, Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9131

Functional traits underlying performance variations in the overwintering of the cosmopolitan invasive plant water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) under climate warming and water drawdown
Huang et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9181

Genetic diversity and differentiation of populations of Anthyllis vulneraria along elevational and latitudinal gradients
Daco et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9167

Latitudinal gradient in species diversity provides high niche opportunities for a range-expanding phytophagous insect
Jones et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.02.07.479421

Live-fast-die-young: Carryover effects of heatwave-exposed adult urchins on the development of the next generation
Minuti et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16339

Long-Term Decrease in Coloration: A Consequence of Climate Change?
Lopez-Idiaquez et al., The American Naturalist, 10.1086/719655

Offshore extinctions: ocean acidification impacting interstitial fauna
Santos, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04371-w

On the rise: Climate change in New Zealand will cause sperm and blue whales to seek higher latitudes
Peters et al., Ecological Indicators, Open Access 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109235

Past, present, and future predictions on the suitable habitat of the Slender racer (Orientocoluber spinalis) using species distribution models
Park et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9169

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions
Brodie et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16371

Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest
Wunderling et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2120777119

Sympatric soil biota mitigate a warmer-drier climate for Bouteloua gracilis
Remke et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16369

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered tree Firmiana kwangsiensis using the Maxent modeling
Gao et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.165226342.20697516/v1

The importance of considering the duration of extreme temperatures when investigating responses to climate change
Isotalo et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16381

Timing and duration of drought modulate tree growth response in pure and mixed stands of Scots pine and Norway spruce
Aldea et al., Journal of Ecology, Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.13978

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe
Mattisson et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9147

Warm springs alter timing but not total growth of temperate deciduous trees
Dow et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-022-05092-3

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Dynamic impacts of economic growth, energy use, urbanization, tourism, agricultural value-added, and forested area on carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil
Raihan & Tuspekova, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00782-w

Effects of initial leaching for estimates of mass loss and microbial decomposition—Call for an increased nuance
Lind et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9118

Long-term nitrogen addition raises the annual carbon sink of a boreal forest to a new steady-state
Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109112

Quantifying biological carbon pump pathways with a data-constrained mechanistic model ensemble approach
Stukel et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.01.07.475464

Responses of soil greenhouse gas emissions to land use conversion and reversion — A global meta-analysis
Feng et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16370

Re-assessment of the climatic controls on the carbon and water fluxes of a boreal aspen forest over 1996-2016: changing sensitivity to long-term climatic conditions
Liu et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16218

Re-assessment of the climatic controls on the carbon and water fluxes of a boreal aspen forest over 1996–2016: Changing sensitivity to long-term climatic conditions
Liu et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16218

Using satellites to uncover large methane emissions from landfills
Maasakkers et al., Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.abn9683

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Bacteria–photocatalyst sheet for sustainable carbon dioxide utilization
Wang et al., Nature Catalysis, Open Access 10.1038/s41929-022-00817-z

California’s forest carbon offsets buffer pool is severely undercapitalized
Badgley et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.04.27.488938


Barriers and opportunities for bioenergy expansion in Chinese rural areas
Xu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.06.012

Climate change and 2030 cooling demand in Ahmedabad, India: opportunities for expansion of renewable energy and cool roofs
Joshi et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10019-4

Decoupling efficiency from electricity intensity: An empirical assessment in the EU
Perillo et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113171

Development of a wind power ramp forecasting system via meteorological pattern analysis
Okada et al., Wind Energy, Open Access 10.1002/we.2774

Environmental and economic analyses of different size photovoltaic installation in Poland
Olczak et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.016

Environmental Impact Assessment of Solid Polymer Electrolytes for Solid-State Lithium Batteries
Larrabide et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200079

Grafted Groups’ Modification in the Main Chain of Polyfluorene-Based Conjugated Polyelectrolytes to Greatly Boost Solar Hydrogen Production from Natural Seawater
Wu et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200068

Importing or self-dependent: energy transition in Beijing towards carbon neutrality and the air pollution reduction co-benefits
Nikodým, The Mathematical Apparatus for Quantum, Open Access 10.1007/978-3-642-46030-2_3

Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets
Dumortier et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-022-00716-8

Investigation of energy storage in parabolic rotary trough solar collectors using various porous fins with magnetic nanoparticles
Helmi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.009

Just Transition: A whole-systems approach to decarbonisation
Abram et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2108365

Modelling wind speed across Zambia: implications for wind energy
Libanda & Paeth, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7826

Moving towards green university: a method of analysis based on multi-criteria decision-making approach to assess sustainability indicators
Yadegaridehkordi & Nilashi, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04086-y

Performance of biogas plant analysis and policy implications: Evidence from the commercial sources
Bai et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113173

Realization of a Sustainable Charging Power Source by In Situ Low-Frequency Water Wave Energy Harvesting with a Coaxial Triboelectric–Electromagnetic Hybrid Generator
Ding et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200087

Reviewing the ecological impacts of offshore wind farms
Galparsoro et al., npj Ocean Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-022-00003-5

Techno-economic analysis of a PV/T waste heat–driven compound ejector-heat pump for simultaneous data centre cooling and district heating using low global warming potential refrigerants
Al-Sayyab et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10017-6

The costs of replacing coal plant jobs with local instead of distant wind and solar jobs across the United States
Vanatta et al., iScience, Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104817

Aerosols Climate change communications & cognition

Changing minds about global warming: vicarious experience predicts self-reported opinion change in the USA
Ballew et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03397-w

Post publication careers: communication, engagement and impact
Gonçalves Neto, Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00508-4

The COVID-19 infodemic in Brazil: trends in Google search data
Harb et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13747

The German coal debate on Twitter: Reactions to a corporate policy process
Müller-Hansen et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113178

The proliferation of carbon labels
Etzion, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01442-1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Analysis of soil carbon and income over Acacia decurrens and Eucalyptus globulus land uses in the highlands of Ethiopia
Dessie et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00784-8

Assessing agrometeorological drought trends in Iran during 1985–2018
Isfahani et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04159-5

Bibliometric analysis of rice and climate change publications based on Web of Science
Yuan & Sun Sun, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04169-3

Coastal livelihood resilience to abrupt environmental change: the role of social capital in a Peruvian bay
Kriegl et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01959-3

Does global warming threaten small-scale bivalve fisheries in NW Spain?
Castro-Olivares et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105707

Estimating the environmental impacts of 57,000 food products
Clark et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2120584119

EU Citizen support for climate-friendly agriculture (Farm) and dietary options (Fork) across the left-right political spectrum
de Boer & Aiking, Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2104792

Identification and characterization of potential change agents among agri-food producers: regime, niche and hybrid actors
Bünger & Schiller, Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01184-1

Income and Yield effects of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) adoption in flood prone areas of Bangladesh: Farm Level Evidence
Akter et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100455

Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets
Dumortier et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-022-00716-8

Performance of biogas plant analysis and policy implications: Evidence from the commercial sources
Bai et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113173

Spatial and interdecadal differences in climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 2014
Li & Zheng, International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02343-w

The main driver of soil organic carbon differs greatly between topsoil and subsoil in a grazing steppe
Wu et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9182

Visualization and quantification of carbon “rusty sink” by rice root iron plaque: mechanisms, functions, and global implications
Wei et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16372

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Future rise of the Great Lakes water levels under climate change
Kayastha et al., Journal of Hydrology, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128205

Hydrological drought dynamics and its teleconnections with large-scale climate indices in the Xijiang River basin, South China
Lin et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04153-x

Precipitation extremes over the Tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations
Araújo Costa et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7828

Projected dry/wet regimes in China using SPEI under four SSP-RCP based on statistically downscaled CMIP6 data
Chen et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7824

The Role of Climate and Vegetation in Regulating Drought–Heat Extremes
O et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0675.1

Climate change economics

Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System
Sato et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.796

Climate change and household debt in rural India
Kandikuppa & Gray, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03407-x

Environmental adjustment of the EU27 GDP: an econometric quantitative model
Galiano Bastarrica et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-022-09872-0

How Does State-Level Carbon Pricing in the United States Affect Industrial Competitiveness?
Casey et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00711-z

Is energy efficiency a robust driver for the new normal development model? A Granger causality analysis
Panait et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113162

Is the green deal a global strategy? Revision of the green deal definitions, strategies and importance in post-COVID recovery plans in various regions of the world
Smol, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113152

Persistent effect of temperature on GDP identified from lower frequency temperature variability
Bastien-Olvera et al., Environmental Research Letters, Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac82c2

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Evolving a policy framework discovering the dynamic association between determinants of oil consumption in India
Siddiqui et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113179

Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model
Reyseliani et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113184

Improving regional applicability of the UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways through iterative participatory co-design
Harmá?ková et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100452

Measuring corporate Paris Compliance using a strict science-based approach
Rekker et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31143-4

Performance of biogas plant analysis and policy implications: Evidence from the commercial sources
Bai et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113173

Product market competition and carbon disclosure: Evidence from China
Luo et al., Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2100830

Rethinking electricity rate design: Fostering the energy transition in North Africa
Hendam et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113172

Solar adoption inequality in the U.S.: Trend, magnitude, and solar justice policies
Gao & Zhou, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113163

Who pays for BECCS and DACCS in the UK: designing equitable climate policy
Owen et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2104793

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate Adaptation to Multi-Hazard Climate Related Risks in Ten Indonesian Cities: Ambitions and Challenges
Gaborit, Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100453

Influence of cross-scale measures on neighborhood resilience
Buck et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05493-7

Russia’s expanding adaptation agenda and its limitations
Moe et al., Climate Policy, Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2022.2107981

Towards improved understanding of cascading and interconnected risks from concurrent weather extremes: Analysis of historical heat and drought extreme events
Niggli et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000057

Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios
Xu et al., Biosafety and Health, Open Access 10.1016/j.bsheal.2022.03.012

Moving in a hotter world: Maintaining adequate childhood fitness as a climate change countermeasure
Morrison, Temperature, Open Access pdf 10.1080/23328940.2022.2102375

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change
Mora et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01426-1

The effects of night-time warming on mortality burden under future climate change scenarios: a modelling study
He et al., The Lancet Planetary Health, Open Access pdf 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00139-5

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Chemical Toxicants in Water: A GeoHealth perspective in the context of Climate Change
Joseph et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000675

Linking science and action to improve public health capacity for climate preparedness in lower- and middle-income countries
Quinn et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2098228

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change
Mora et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01426-1

Post publication careers: communication, engagement and impact
Gonçalves Neto, Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00508-4

Tropical forests are crucial in regulating the climate on Earth
Artaxo et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000054

Book reviews

Climate Change and Biodiversity Governance in the Amazon: At the Edge of Ecological Collapse?
Munera Roldan, Environmental Politics, Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2105047

Martin J. Pasqualetti. The thread of energy: the ubiquity of energy in modern life
Perkins, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00793-7

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Carbon Capture’s Methane Problem. Life Cycle Analysis of Proposed New Mexico Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project Shows 90% or Higher Capture Is a Myth., Schlissel and Wamsted, e Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Like other proponents of carbon capture and storage (CCS) seeking federal funding of their projects, Enchant Energy and its allies claim that retrofitting the San Juan Generating Station (SJGS) in New Mexico for carbon capture could capture 90% or more of the CO2 emitted by the power plant. Real-world evidence suggests that this carbon capture rate is unrealistically high. Yet even if it were achievable, the total climate impact of SJGS would still be significant because of the substantial methane emissions from the San Juan coal mine that supplies fuel to the station. The authors found that the effective CO2 capture rate at the plant after including the mine’s methane emissions would be no more than 72%. The figure is likely too high since it assumes Enchant will be able to consistently capture 95% of CO2 generated at the plant.

U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, The White House

Sub-Saharan Africa plays a critical role in advancing global priorities to the benefit of Africans and Americans. It has one of the world’s fastest-growing populations, largest free trade areas, most diverse ecosystems, and one of the largest regional voting groups in the United Nations (UN). It is impossible to meet today’s defining challenges without African contributions and leadership. The region will factor prominently in efforts to end the COVID-19 pandemic; tackle the climate crisis; reverse the global tide of democratic backsliding; address global food insecurity; promote gender equity and equality; strengthen an open and stable international system; shape the rules of the world on vital issues like trade, cyber, and emerging technologies; and confront the threat of terrorism, conflict, and transnational crime. The U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa represents a reframing of Africa’s importance to U.S. national security interests.

Green Energy Jobs in The U.S.: What Are They, And Where Are They?, Curtis and Marinescu, National Bureau of Economic Research

Does the growth of renewable energy benefit U.S. workers, and which workers stand to benefit the most? Until now, evidence on green energy jobs has been limited due to measurement issues. The authors use data on nearly all jobs posted online in the U.S., as collected by Burning Glass Technology. They also create a new measure of green jobs, defined in the paper as solar and wind jobs. The authors use job titles and task requirements to define green jobs. They found that both solar and wind job postings have more than tripled since 2010, with solar jobs seeing especially strong growth that precedes the growth of new installed solar capacity. In 2019, they identified approximately 52,500 solar job openings and 13,500 wind job openings. Solar jobs are mostly (33%) in sales occupations, and in the utility industry (16%). Wind jobs are most represented among installation and maintenance occupations (37%), and in the manufacturing industry (29%). Green jobs are created in occupations that are about 21% higher paying than average. The pay premium is even higher for jobs with a low educational requirement. Finally, green jobs tend to locate in counties with high shares of employment in fossil fuel extraction. Overall, the authors suggest that the growth of renewable energy leads to the creation of relatively high-paying jobs, which are more often than not located in areas that stand to lose from a decline in fossil fuel extraction jobs.

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, Baldassare et al., Public Policy Institute of California

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A sharp increase in petroleum prices has led to discussions about expanding oil production and renewable energy sources. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on environmental issues conducted by the authors in July 2022. For example, Californians are most likely to name water supply and drought, followed by wildfires and climate change, as the most important environmental issue facing the state today.

Retail Electricity Rates Under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Roy et al, Resources for the Future

The authors model the impact of the proposed Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 on consumer electricity prices, finding that it reduces the average American household's electricity costs by $170-$220 a year.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.


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Comments 1 to 19:

  1. The study “Estimating the environmental impacts of 57,000 food products” adds to awareness and understanding helping consumers make less harmful food choices. But it contains a couple of questionable points:

    1. It is questionable to consider any water needed for food growing to be a problem. Water use is only a concern if it is artificial potentially unsustainable human caused water extraction or diversion such as irrigation, especially water extraction from aquifers. Food production that does not require artificial water use is not a problem. Almond growing without irrigation an be lower impact than growing food that requires very little water but is done by diverting natural water for the growing.
    2. It is questionable to claim that the impacts of processing the processed foods are insignificant compared to the impacts of ‘growing, harvesting, and delivering basic food commodities to retail stores for sale’ (the following quote makes that questionable claim).

    "The estimated environmental impacts account for the processing and transportation of commodities to retail stores, but do not incorporate postproduction processing, packaging, and transportation of, for example, converting sugar into a sugar-sweetened beverage or flour and butter into a croissant. This is unlikely to have a large influence on the estimated environmental impact scores as the large majority of food-related environmental impacts result from agricultural production (14), but it is important to note that this may affect the estimated scores for, for example, air-freighted produce or highly processed foods composed of agricultural commodities with low environmental impacts (19, 20).”

    The authors should have stated that the full lifecycle impacts of postprocessing need to be included in the evaluation of the total impact of a consumer’s purchase choice. A personal bag of crisps (UK term for what N. Americans call potato chips), with ~1.5 oz (40 g) of potato in it, contains about 1/4 of a medium-sized potato. It seems very unlikely that the impacts of construction and operation of the processing, packaging, transportation of end products, and all related wastes of every part of the process are insignificant compared to the impacts of growing, harvesting, and delivering 1/4 of a potato to a retail display. Frying the bits of potato is not an insignificant impact, though it has to be off-set by the impacts of the home cooking method. And the transportation of the massive volume of completed ‘bags full of very little material’ would appear to produce a significant impacts per 100 g of product. Also, related important impact of a bag of crisps is the end disposal of the packaging of that little bit of edible product.

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  2. Of course so many people could never keep the Great Reset a secret, that's how we know about it.  That and all the publicizing from the WEF.  The lack of secrecy doesn't prove it's imaginary, it shows it's real. So what are you debunking?

    Are you doubting the Great Reset includes climate mitigation? Of course not, it explicitly calls for green infrastructure and ESG and all the usual globalist causes. It's not the Modest Reset or the Limited Reset, after all.

    Or are you disputing that the IPCC is pushing the same agenda? Their mitigations report doesn't propose a focused list of completable projects to halt AGW and fix the climate, but just the opposite. It inventories every category of human and economic activity and invites governments to re-engineer all of them, with no expectation of a "done" state ever. It's a roadmap for everything but fixing the climate.  Klaus Schwab's agenda, with a different sort order.

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  3. The "Great Reset" purports that pragmatic reasons are secondary to ideological ambitions, Jason. 

    This is a fallacy based on inverted predicates.

    Physics created a market for safety belts, mitigation against catastrophic injury as a side-effect of a human activity and its unintended outcomes.

    Given that we're speaking of human nature including greed and self-interest, it was pretty much inevitable that improvement of vehicle safety would require regulatory oversight, adults in the room (us, acting together through public policy) to heed. Seatbelts required intervention against self-interest, yes— secondary to newly understood information.

    But improvement started with physics, passed on to address human nature, reaching an acceptable outcome.

    Political philosophy doesn't set physical constants, material properties. In the mid '70s the USSR mandated safety belt use, far earlier than any US state. Does this belated obedience to physics on our part mean we became communists? No— it means that physics doesn't depend on political philosophy. Here in the US as a  matter of political belief and practice we're sometimes seemingly confused between freedom to think, speak and worship vs. freedom to die foolishly and needlessly after striking a hard object at speed. But kinetics remains aloof from our thoughts, visible as a  serene constant when we don't think carefully.

    Science first, mitigation second. Evidence then reply to evidence. It's not complicated. Here physics  is telling us about forces much larger than a body passing through a windshield. But it's still physics first, policy reply second.

    There is indeed a much larger market for ideas in for stepping over and past anthropogenic global warming. Money will move from one industry to another. That after all is why we're having this 30-years-stale conversation. We're  part of the "addressing human nature phase," our waste of time and energy prolonged because stakes are high. 

    Meanwhile, we can (as indicated above) be pretty sure that if hundreds of thousands of researchers practicing within their own domains are seeing their work distorted or abused in furtherance of a hidden agenda by other investigators, with (let's say) 300,000 researchers victimized and a 1% objection rate we'd be hearing from about 3,000 of them— published in the collection of journals we see above, with great delight and zero chance of going unnoticed and unremarked.

    These researchers would be showing exactly how their work was being misused, with arguments built on supporting citations. That isn't going to happen, obviously; nobody's going to  or can argue against 9.8m/s/s. While this situation is a bit more complicated than an apple falling from a tree, the problem of warming is only the revealed product of a large unpacking of some basic principles. 

    As well, it's worth noting (as we can see from the densely dendritic connections between articles and their authors) that contradicting publications by offended workers would in turn would trigger an explosion of replies in various forms, a "prompt criticality" effect, producing the academic equivalent of a saloon brawl with geometrically increasing numbers of pugilists. 

    Where are these articles? Where's the sound and fury? It's nowhere. We see a few papers attempting to disprove AGW from first principles and failing badly when tested, hence fizzling as a source of research energy. Beyond that, crickets. 

    Meanwhile, I think in fairness we need to see a coherent org chart of The Great Reset. What's the leadership? How do instructions flow? How is agreement on the agenda decided and agreed? Who pays the bills, and where are the books?  China's government is at loggerheads with the US government on many matters, but they privately agree to execute a hidden agenda with nary a slip? What does this look lik as a matter of record? Etc. Short of having all that to see, the great reset sounds like great conjecture unsupported by facts. Coupled with the lack of objections by persons who actually do know better and could explain how, the whole concept seems greatly unlikely.

    There's no explanatory or predictive power in "they're perfectly all in it together," because that assumes invisibility, hence unfalsifiability, leaving us with nothing to work with. On the other hand, we have a mountain of well founded consilience.

    There's no exciting mystery here, no shadowy forces, nothing really more dramatic than "you shouldn't drop that hammer on your foot," widely agreed. Physicists say the hammer will develop kinetic energy, doctors say this will cause injury at a certain statistical rate, bootmakers sell steel-toed boots to address accidents, and maybe we'll figure out a safer tool than the hammer we're used to holding. Some of us are such that we'll need some help understanding why and how this is all commmon sense— including those who sell hammers for a living. Change forces at play, scale, see AGW, fix.That's all we're talking about. Let's all calm down and not get in a lather about conspiracies.



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  4. I'm still not clear whom you're debunking. The initial reference was "a globalist elite promoting CC as part of a Great Reset." It seems pretty easy to identify factions meeting all four criteria. They need not be secret, nor coordinated, and like all of us they will have a gamut of motivations from the practical to the ideological. There need not be any org chart, no overarching organization, no mastermind coordinating the planet to make the Reset Great again.

    Specifically, what articles are you expecting to see that you're not? The media distorts and misuses climate research constantly and everywhere. "Sunny day could be linked to climate change." "Experts shocked by latest findings."  "It's even worse than we thought!" I wouldn't expect academic journals to publish letters from aggrieved researchers done wrong by the Washington Post. Nor exposés of the narrative advanced in the IPCC reports.

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  5. "The media distorts and misuses..."

    Whoops. We're not talkiing about "the media," popular media. There are fundamental, profound differences between popular media and academic research journals and articles published therein. If this isn't clear and plainly obvious, it's a failure of communications on our part.

    Pictures would help, but in the meantime, take a look at a sampling of articles above. Notice that each article sits on a "pyramid" (it would look like a pyramid if all the work was printed and stacked) of other articles, with new claims in aritcles sitting at the tip of the structure and supported by what's below. Notice that as one descends "layers" of papers in this pyramid, the same convention of support from below applies, with the network of support rapidly expanding. There is a huge degree of connection here, and agreement.  Understanding this is key to understanding how scientific literature is a most implausible collaborator in any policy enterprise operating evidence-free. 

    Significantly, the entire structure is available for examination and 20:20 hindsight.  

    So that we're in understanding, Jason, is it your proposition that first it was decided we must rearrange parts of our physical economy, then that the entire scientific community was enrolled in the plan?

    And if not, and if what we know says "we need to make some changes" and this is a matter of broad agreement (we shouldn't drop hammers on our toes), what is the problem you see? I ask because most people wouldn't see a problem with this.

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  6. Was it decided that we must rearrange parts of our physical economy?  The passive voice and the cryptic "we" rob the question of any meaning. "We" don't decide anything. "We" may be perfectly happy to drop hammers, more concerned with our paychecks and careers and reputations and self-images than with most of the 70 billion toes out there.

    What appears to have happened in the 1980s is that some faction at the WMO succeeded after a long lobbying effort in getting the UN to charter the IPCC with a half-scientific, half-political mission to assess the AGW science and make recommendations to governments on climate interventions to essentially slow the spread of global warming.  Both the fact of AGW and the need for interventions were baked into the mission from the start.

    30 years and countless billions later, the bench of researchers has swelled enormously. Careers have grown, new institutions born. The question of the future of the world's energy production has taken sharp political contours, because how could it not?  The IPCC sits atop the great pyramid you describe.  Everyone with an office in the pyramid agrees with the IPCC and stand united against the mobs of Deniers fuming in the sands outside.

    Seems to me we cannot tell from this picture whether that WMO faction was right or wrong back in the 1980s.  If they were right and the ranks of researchers since then have vindicated their predictions, we get the pyramid. 

    On the other hand if they were wrong, institutions take on their own momentum and quickly outpace any individual's ability to shift their course.  Political institutions in particular are always concerned about political optics and pathologically unable to admit error. Over the years the power structure naturally evolves to filter for true believers and loyalists and to cast out boat-rockers. The institutions come to be filled with people who support the institutional narrative for the same reason 97% of popes support Catholicism. We would still be looking at a pyramid.  

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  7. Warning, JasonChen ~ you are beginning to wake up.

    I strongly advise you to keep behaving "normally" until you learn more about the real situation.

    One of us will contact you and offer you a choice.  For just $199.95 you can obtain a Red Pill which will open your eyes fully.   Alternatively, you may obtain a Gold Pill, which inducts you into the Inner Circle of the globalist elite ~ at the low price of $1499.95  (for this month only).

    Payment by Venmo.   Offer not transferable.

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  8. Thank you for answering my question, Jason.

    Nowhere do the people and organizations you're traducing describe themselves, their origins, purpose, goals or activities as you claim.

    Hence, you're describing a hidden agenda disguised as something else, a concerted organization operating covertly.

    Put another way, you're describing a conspiracy, offering a conjecture of conspiracy.

    Your portrayal doesn't rise to "conspiracy theory" or even hypothesis. It's too gauzy. 

    You can improve your conjecture by hard graft, the difficult work of tearing into literature and showing us where public policy that is emerging as a result of scientific research is being misguided. We make this easier; in a given month we offer hundreds of articles in an easy-to-find format. Have at it. Perhaps you'll find an important crack in the wall, but until you do no amount of hand-waving or evidence-free imputation will substitute. 

    Meanwhile— while we're waiting for that— public policy needs to be made and implemented, and commerce, markets and quite a bit of the rest of the human enterprise.need to adjust in respect of what physics tells us is happening and will happen, what we can see happening (see above, as usual). There's no option to wait while somebody indulges in and explores wild ideas. There's a clock running (see above, as usual). 

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  9. The presupposition being that anything you haven't run across in climate journals is "hidden" or "nowhere?"  Yeah, I don't know about that.

    Was the IPCC's founding a conspiracy?  I don't know about that either, but it did have a purpose and a point of view which are revealed in these secret gauzy conjectural conspiracy documents

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  10. Here's your claim, Jason: 

    "Are you doubting the Great Reset includes climate mitigation? Of course not, it explicitly calls for green infrastructure and ESG and all the usual globalist causes. It's not the Modest Reset or the Limited Reset, after all.

    Or are you disputing that the IPCC is pushing the same agenda? Their mitigations report doesn't propose a focused list of completable projects to halt AGW and fix the climate, but just the opposite. It inventories every category of human and economic activity and invites governments to re-engineer all of them, with no expectation of a "done" state ever. It's a roadmap for everything but fixing the climate. Klaus Schwab's agenda, with a different sort order."

    Shorter: the IPCC's primary purpose is not addressing anthropogenic climate change. In fact, the opposite. The IPCC's stated mission intentionally obscures its true objectives.

    So, you appear to believe that we have a political/economic agenda "The Great Reset" sailing under false colors. "Globalists" (where is party headquarters?) are promoting their hidden agenda by expediently attaching themselves to climate research.

    Supposing this conjecture were true and even if "globalists" had actually seized or conjured the IPCC for their hidden agenda, we're still left with the problem of anthropogenic climate change itself. Again, the worth of the message "you should wear seat belts" is independent of whether the advice comes from a communist or a capitalist, because the momentum of a human body moving at speed is independent of political ideology. 

    Others may perceive it differently, but what I'm hearing from you is some rather desperate straining to avoid fastening your seatbelt. Because the argument for fastening seatbelts is pretty much air tight, you must invent reasons for why doing so is to become putty in the hands of Big Safety. So, the invention to deal with this is that Big Safety is actually pursuing a hidden agenda to control your life and it becomes (apparently, because here we are) a matter of principle to oppose behaving sensiibly. 

    [And I'm left wondering: if we can't mutually discern the difference between mysticism and physics,  between religious thought and scientific research, is there any point in proceeding with this discussion? When we begin hearing comparisons between the Catholic church and the scientific enterprise, that's suggestive of a profound gap in understanding, the need for intensive and broad remediation we won't be able accomplish here.]


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  11. JasonChen,

    I have been following this discussion.

    I offer the following alternative perspective regarding the motives of parties acting related to the IPCC.

    The first step is establishing the proper historical evidence based understanding of the formation of the IPCC. The history of the formation of the IPCC is no mystery. It was formally established by the UNEP and the WMO and was endorsed by the UN General Assembly in 1988. The motivation for forming the IPCC was the increased awareness and understanding of the harmful unsustainable developments that competition for status, including economic and political competition, created. And the first global conference to make the environment the major issue was the UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockhom in 1972. That triggered many pursuits under the umbrella of pursuit of developing sustainable improvements for the future of humanity (in addition to earlier actions like the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights)

    That history is aligned with the research history that Doug Bostrom has focused on.

    That independently verifiable evidence based understanding leads to the awareness that there is a nefarious group ... The misleading marketers trying to delay the limitation of harmful pursuits and the related required compensation to people who have been harmed by harmful unsustainable pursuits of benefit and status.

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  12. the IPCC's primary purpose is not addressing anthropogenic climate change.

    Of course its purpose is to address climate change.  Specifically:

    1. To make assessments of available scientific information on climate change.
    2. To make assessments of environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change.
    3. To formulate response strategies to meet the challenge of climate change.

    What's not that list is physics goals of fixing the climate or even predicting it well. 30 years later, the climate is neither fixed nor on a path to be fixed. Fixed hasn't even been defined. The IPCC hasn't identified anything close to a seat belt. The response strategies it has formulated have a conspicuous overlap with Klaus Schwab's agenda for maximal disruption. Large chunks of the world are rejecting them as economically and politically unpalatable.  These are just facts.

    Are they addressing climate change? Sure they are, in some sense.

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  13. JasonChen:

    You are either playing word games, or not understanding basic writing.

    "Assessments" are not taking actions to address a problem. The IPCC reviews available scientific literature and summarizes it.

    "Formulating strategies" is not taking actions to address a problem. It is giving advice. In the case of the IPCC, it is using the knowldege of the science it has assessed to indicate what the effect of various actions might be. Then policy makers can use that advice (or ignore it) when they choose to try to address climate change.

    You know, don't you? That pesky "Summary for Policy Makers" that accompanies each report?

    You are seeing monsters under every bed you see.

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  14. Jason Chen @2

    "Or are you disputing that the IPCC is pushing the same agenda? Their mitigations report doesn't propose a focused list of completable projects to halt AGW and fix the climate, but just the opposite. It inventories every category of human and economic activity and invites governments to re-engineer all of them, with no expectation of a "done" state ever. It's a roadmap for everything but fixing the climate. Klaus Schwab's agenda, with a different sort order."

    I completely disagee. It's like you must be looking at another page. The page you linked clearly shows a list of multiple climate change mitigation options and they would obviously resolve the problem, if properly applied. There may be other approaches but that is beside the point.

    The page includes another column of information on how this relates to the UN sustainable development goals. So what? These are not a " great reset". I would suggest most countries and political parties would already subscribe to them in principle anyway and clearly many countries are already working towards these with varying levels of success. The following are the UN sustainable development goals:

    GOAL 1: No Poverty
    GOAL 2: Zero Hunger
    GOAL 3: Good Health and Well-being
    GOAL 4: Quality Education
    GOAL 5: Gender Equality
    GOAL 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
    GOAL 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
    GOAL 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
    GOAL 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
    GOAL 10: Reduced Inequality
    GOAL 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
    GOAL 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
    GOAL 13: Climate Action
    GOAL 14: Life Below Water
    GOAL 15: Life on Land
    GOAL 16: Peace and Justice Strong Institutions
    GOAL 17: Partnerships to achieve the Goal

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  15. Ah-hah. Jason really wants us to notice Klaus Schwab.

    Here's some background on why (note the parroting*).  It helps to explain Jason's "hiding in plain sight" angle.

    The Great Reset: What is it? 

    Jason's mapping the original Great Reset crowd-sourced anxiety onto the IPCC. It doesn't make the jump very well. 

    We're seeing a kind of platypus being stitched together.

    Still not hearing any complaints about what we know about why we should deal w/warming, how this controverts common sense. Instead, hints of descent into old fashioned, dull and boring denial are becoming more visible. All roads lead there when there's no useful argument against "seatbelts are good."

    The discussion remains substantially stuck on "my ideology is offended." 

    *“The Great Reset is not a conspiracy theory. The World Economic Forum website reveals its agenda.”

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  16. I hereby declare my point of view a seat belt, yours a platypus. Out of my devotion to science, you understand.

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    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Not a constructive contribution to the discussion.

    This discussion is getting borderline. I would ask all participants to explain rather than rant, and try to find the crux of disagreement.

  17. Jason Chen @12

    "What's not that list is physics goals of fixing the climate or even predicting it well. 30 years later, the climate is neither fixed nor on a path to be fixed. Fixed hasn't even been defined. The IPCC hasn't identified anything close to a seat belt. The response strategies it has formulated have a conspicuous overlap with Klaus Schwab's agenda for maximal disruption. Large chunks of the world are rejecting them as economically and politically unpalatable. These are just facts."

    Your stream of mostly nonsensical, wrong, evidence free, citation free assertions is getting tiresome. I wish you would take your trolling somewhere else. You also have a habit of confusing various things.

    For the benefit of sane people:

    "What's not that list is physics goals of fixing the climate"

    Fixing the climate is not a physics goal. Physics is about understanding the climate. Mitigation is about fixing the climate.

    And The IPCCs stated goals of assessing the relevant scientific information obvious directly imply the requirement to understand the physics.And their stated goal of formulating response strategies is clearly about "fixing the climate". 

    "or even predicting it well"

    IPPC does not predict the climate. It reviews predictions made in various modelling exercises and the predictions have been quite good:

    "the climate is neither fixed nor on a path to be fixed."

    The fact that the climate problem has not been fixed is nothing to do with the IPCC or some undefined nebulous global elite. Neither are tasked with fixing the climate problem. Its because governments have weak policies, corporates have been slow to respond,  and individuals have been complacent.

    "Fixed hasn't even been defined. "

    Fixed has been defined: Net zero by 2050 under the Paris Accord Agreements. You may disagree with the definition, but stop telling people there is no definition.

    "The IPCC hasn't identified anything close to a seat belt."

    The IPCC have defined the science very well. Their latest report runs to about 10,000 pages and references many thousands of peer reviewed studies. The science goes back over 100 years. This website discusses this issue if you go through their menu system to find relevant information.

    "Klaus Swabs agenda".

    Jason you better put on your tin foil hat. 

    "Large chunks of the world are rejecting them as economically and politically unpalatable. These are just facts."

    Large chunks of the world are rejecting climate mitigation strategies for a range of reasons. For some its because they don't want to pay any costs, but there are many other reasons including vested interests, holding on to establiashed patterns of a materialistic displays of status, campaigns of climate science denialism and for various psychological reasons. But equally large chunks of people want mitigation strategies implimented, if you read polling studies by Pew Research.

    Those are the real facts, with some relevant sources noted..

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    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Not a constructive contribution.


  18. I understand it's a polarizing, politicized issue, and conspiracy theory is a label that's easy to apply and minimizes cognitive dissonance. But that does injustice to the important scientific discipline of hypothesis generation, in which we come up with other potential causes for whatever evidence we observe and hold space for them.  Without the commitment to any particular narrative or the paranoia implied by conspiracy theory.

    It's demonstrable fact that certain factions within society are eager to see a Great Reset and enthusiastic about the climate agenda and the broadest, most disruptive approaches to emissions reduction. Industrialists like Mr. Musk have already made billions and expect to make many more in the green revolution. Extinction Rebellion and BLM and other Marxist groups are eager to see capitalism torn down, industrialization rolled back, and people suffering enough to support a communist revolution. Politicians like AOC are leveraging climate to propel their careers and justify sweeping political change.  For these groups, climate change is not an inconvenient truth at all, it's just the opposite.

    To what extent does the IPCC we see today, its output, the choices of which climate research gets funded and which papers get published reflect the influence of such factions rather than pure science?  I don't know, but I certainly wouldn't assume the answer is zero.

    What might we expect to see if such groups had significant influence, either at the formation of the IPCC or since?  An IPCC charter that isn't strictly scientific but reaches into politics, a remit that isn't narrowly focused on some specific goals but one that's broad and vague.  We might see IPCC assessment reports that subsume scientific findings and disputes under an advocacy narrative. Rather than push for narrow, achievable climate interventions like "build 1000 nuclear plants," it might instead go broad and endorse every conceivable intervention that might affect emissions, with vague nostrums like "climate justice" sprinkled in to curry political support.

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  19. JasonChen @18,

    If it is a "demonstrable fact that certain factions within society are eager to see a Great Reset and enthusiastic about the climate agenda and the broadest, most disruptive approaches to emissions reduction," you do need to show it is a "demonstrable fact." Such a 'demonstration' requires a lot more than naming Musk, XR, BLM & AOC as exemplars of folk wanting "political change" and then baselessly assert they welcome the opportunity AGW presents. And to further assert that such folk have influence over the work of the IPCC and beyond into the science of climatology which is, you assert, being used to falsify that science, such assertion requires a lot more than you simply pronouncing on the level of this alleged influence "I don't know, but I certainly wouldn't assume the answer is zero." You do need to show in full detail the "IPCC assessment reports that subsume scientific findings and disputes under an advocacy narrative."

    And if you can't do that, you need to go away and rethink your message which presently is reading like the message you'd hear buried in a DJT speech.

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