Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2023
Posted on 13 April 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of our atmospheric accident is a certainty; the outcome we'll realize sits between brackets restng far above zero. For any country with a sea coast— particularly those with a combination of human presence and low coastal elevations— there's more or less urgent need to figure out how accomodate encroachment. We get one chance to optimize this work and it won't be easy even with the best information. So, useful information we should know is "what are the foundations of our plans, and do we have any plans for SLR at all? Utah State University's Daniella Hirschfeld and her coauthors delve into this in their paper Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation, just published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment. There is lots of room for improvement. From the abstract:
While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario.
Inability (planning affordabilty is not a given) to account for SLR at all is obviously a big problem, but so also is overreliance on single projections, especially when our understanding of this problem is rapidly evolving. As an example of emerging possibilities with powerful planning implications, the British Antarctic Survey's Paul Holland and his coinvestigators will shortly be giving a talk at the upcoming EGU General Assembly, Strong Ocean Melting Feedback During the Recent Retreat of Thwaites Glacier (abstract only), detailing unexpectedly voluminous melting of Antarctic ice shelves. This alone would significantly affect any plans for SLR adaptation being laid now.
In this week's government/NGO section, a report just released by the United States Government Accountability Office: Utility-Scale Energy Storage. Technologies and Challenges for an Evolving Grid. This report is a real treat for anybody curious about technical and implementation details of a very important component of modernizing our energy systems. Beyond retaining "excess" energy harvested for later use, large storage systems are also vital for replacing "spinning mass" of massive generators in old-fashioned thermal plants as a means of stabilizing grid voltage and frequency in the face of sudden demand increases.
Reporting in Environmental Research Letters, Vadim Venichenko et al. suggest we're in an uncomfortable situation of mutual exclusivity, in Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns. It's not all bad news, but there's a hard and harsh nugget in the authors' conclusions:
We find that coal phase-out commitments are steadily diffusing to more difficult socio-political contexts and that if the most ambitious national pledges can be replicated worldwide, it would be possible to stay on track for 2 °C. Making this a reality faces two challenges. First, emerging economies, particularly in Asia, would need to bear a larger burden of coal phase-out which raises fairness concerns. Second, countries with coal phase-out commitments would need to stick to their plans even when facing energy security crises like the one caused by Europe's dependence on Russian gas.
Adrian Rinscheid and Sebastian Koos of the University of Konstanz find another case of what has become a pleasingly familiar result in a number of earlier investigations and contexts, in War and pandemic do not jeopardize Germans’ willingness to support climate measures appearing in Nature Communications Earth & Environment. Once again, little evidence for a limiting “finite pool of worry” emerges from this latest work. Put more crudely, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The authors suggest that policymakers should ignore the temptation to "budget" pools of concern in the minds of their constituencies; competing line items in the public mind don't appear to be important.
In Nature Communications, Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification by Zhang et al.: "Our results demonstrate that deploying EVs with 40–100% penetration by 2050 can increase lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands by 2909–7513%, 2127–5426%, 1039–2684%, and 1099–2838%, respectively..." Those are not typographical errors.
We've a grand record of climate experimentation we can refer to when thinking about how our future will unfold. It's not exactly recorded in lab notebooks but fortunately we've learned how to read paleoclimate data captured in many "languages." In other times this information might only have been of abstract interest, but with our current climate problem it becomes valuable fodder for figuring out how our future will look. Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events by Shruti Seti et al. in Science Advances postulates and builds a decent case for climate nudges leading to large climate excursions due to mobilization of carbon stocks initiated by relatively modest changes in global thermal regimes.
121 articles in 60 journals by 834 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change, Balaguru et al., Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adf0259
The role of the western North Pacific (WNP) as an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precursor in a warmer future climate, Borhara et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06773-z
Observations of climate change, effects
An updated view of the water masses on the Northeast Greenland shelf and their link to the Laptev Sea and Lena River, Willcox et al., [journal not provided], 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8460
Anthropogenic Climate Change Enhances the July 2021 Super-Heavy Rainfall Event in Central China, Ma et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0141.1
Atypical forcing embedded in typical forcing leading to the extreme summer 2020 precipitation in Nepal, Sharma et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06777-9
Long-term homogeneity and trend analysis of seasonality and extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change in Johor River basin, Malaysia, Sa’adi et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access 10.1007/s11069-023-05930-1
Shifting climate zones and expanding tropical and arid climate regions across Kenya (1980–2020), Lawrence et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02055-w
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A database for sea-level monitoring in French Polynesia, Barriot et al., Geoscience Data Journal, Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.172
Assessing the performance of satellite derived and reanalyses data in capturing seasonal changes in extreme precipitation scaling rates over the Indian subcontinent, Sengupta et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106741
Homogenization of monthly series of temperature and precipitation: Benchmarking results of the MULTITEST project, Guijarro et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8069
Understanding Differences in Sea Surface Temperature Intercomparisons, Huang et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jtech-d-22-0081.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic Forcing Decreased Concurrent Soil Drought and Atmospheric Aridity in the Historical Period 1850–2013, Zeng et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003349
Anthropogenic heat release due to energy consumption exacerbates European summer extreme high temperature, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06775-x
Coherent Mechanistic Patterns of Tropical Land Hydroclimate Changes, Duan et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102285
Current AMO mitigating extreme high temperatures in Central Asia under global warming, Dong et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8066
Decadal trends in surface solar radiation and cloud cover over the North Atlantic sector during the last four decades: drivers and physical processes, Dong et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06438-3
Delayed Impacts of ENSO on the Frequency of Summer Extreme Hot Days in the Asian Monsoon Region. Part I: Observation, Historical Simulation, and Future Projection in CMIP6 Models, Ye et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0667.1
Wave climate variability and trends in Tuvalu based on a 44-year high-resolution wave hindcast, Wandres et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019523
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A statistical description method of global sub-grid topography for numerical models, Wang et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06447-2
Cryosphere & climate change
A route to understanding the variability in permafrost distribution under climate change, Fedorov, Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.03.007
Sea ice melting drives substantial change in dissolved organic matter in surface water off Prydz Bay, East Antarctic, Yu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2023jg007415
Strong Ocean Melting Feedback During the Recent Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Holland et al., [journal not provided], 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8124
Sea level & climate change
Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability, Dangendorf et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37649-9
Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes, Bagnell & DeVries, Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl101004
Hidden vulnerability of US Atlantic coast to sea-level rise due to vertical land motion, Ohenhen et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37853-7
High-Tide Flooding Along the China Coastline: Past and Future, Li et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003225
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Evidence of Arctic methane emissions across the mid-Pleistocene, Panieri et al., Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-023-00772-y
Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change, Xu et al., Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.add8553
Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events, Setty et al., Science Advances, Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.ade5466
Uncertainty in reconstructing paleo-elevation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from temperature-sensitive ice core records, Badgeley et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl100334
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A comprehensive resilience assessment of Mexican tree species and their relationship with drought events over the last century, Correa?Díaz et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16705
Applying climate change refugia to forest management and old-growth restoration, Pradhan et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16714
Author Correction: Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk, Duffy et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01649-w
Climate change may reduce suitable habitat for freshwater fish in a tropical watershed, Peluso et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-023-03526-z
Forest trees adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change, Leites & Garzón, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16711
Future-proofing ecosystem restoration through enhancing adaptive capacity, Frietsch et al., Communications Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s42003-023-04736-y
Global change effects on biogeochemical mercury cycling, Sonke et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01855-y
Increased summer temperature is associated with reduced calf mass of a circumpolar large mammal through direct thermoregulatory and indirect, food quality, pathways, Holmes et al., Oecologia, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05367-0
Investigation of the highly endangered Pinna nobilis' mass mortalities: Seasonal and temperature patterns of health status, antioxidant and heat stress responses, Lattos et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105977
Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate, Byrd et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14089
Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs, Cannon et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16694
Mangrove Trees Outperform Saltmarsh Grasses in Building Elevation but Collapse Rapidly Under High Rates of Sea-Level Rise, Morris et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003202
Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change, Woods et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16707
Phytoplankton life strategies, phenological shifts and climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean from 1850-2100, Kléparski et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16709
Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models, Wagner et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2214199120
Present and future changes in land-atmosphere coupling of water and energy over extratropical forest regions, Zhu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037887
Spatial variations in the response of spring onset of photosynthesis of evergreen vegetation to climate factors across the Tibetan Plateau: The roles of interactions between temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109440
Spatiotemporal variation in the competitive environment, with implications for how climate change may affect a species with parental care, Potticary et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9972
Stochastic resonance in climate reddening increases the risk of cyclic ecosystem extinction via phase-tipping, Alkhayuon et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16679
The rate of canopy development modulates the link between the timing of spring leaf emergence and summer moisture, Denham et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007217
The role of fire disturbances, human activities and climate change for long-term forest dynamics in upper-montane forests of the central Dinaric Alps, Cagliero et al., The Holocene, Open Access pdf 10.1177/09596836231163515
Tipping points and interactive effects of chronic human disturbance and acute heat stress on coral diversity, Maucieri et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2023.0209
Warming increases survival and asexual fitness in a facultatively sexual freshwater cnidarian with winter diapause, Tökölyi, Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9981
Year-round utilization of sea ice-associated carbon in Arctic ecosystems, Koch et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37612-8
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A dynamic institutional analysis of China’s engagement with Africa’s renewable energy market, Chiyemura et al., Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2023.2194773
Carbon sequestration by multiple biological pump pathways in a coastal upwelling biome, Stukel et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37771-8
Estimation of anthropogenic CH4 and CO2 emissions in Taiyuan-Jinzhong region: One of the world’s largest emission hotspots, Hu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037915
Excess methane emissions from shallow water platforms elevate the carbon intensity of US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production, Gorchov Negron et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2215275120
Exploring the effects of extreme weather events on methane emissions from croplands: A study combining site and global modeling, Xia et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109454
Global Riverine Export of Dissolved Lignin Constrained by Hydrology, Geomorphology and Land-Cover, Bao et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007607
Isotopic characterisation and mobile detection of methane emissions in a heterogeneous UK landscape, Takriti et al., Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119774
Patterns and regulation of hypolimnetic CO2 and CH4 in a tropical reservoir using a process-based modeling approach, Soued & Prairie, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006897
Potential Impacts on Ozone and Climate From a Proposed Fleet of Supersonic Aircraft, Zhang et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003409
Potential response of dark carbon fixation to global warming in estuarine and coastal waters, Qi et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16702
Sources, composition and export of particulate organic matter across British estuaries, García?Martín et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2023jg007420
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The unexpected long period of elevated CH4 emissions from an inundated fen meadow ended only with the occurrence of cattail (Typha latifolia), Antonijevi? et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16713
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Leveraging plural valuations of mangroves for climate interventions in Indonesia, Miller & Tonoto, Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-023-01297-1
Simulation study of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO2 injection in morrow b sandstone reservoir, Adu?Gyamfi et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2192
Decarbonization
Determination of the power smoothing effect in a photovoltaic-hydrokinetic system by experimental analysis and pattern search, Arévalo et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.03.019
Electrified hydrocarbon-to-oxygenates coupled to hydrogen evolution for efficient greenhouse gas mitigation, Leow et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37382-3
Kilowatt-scale solar hydrogen production system using a concentrated integrated photoelectrochemical device, Holmes-Gentle et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01247-2
Surface engineering toward stable lithium metal anodes, Lu et al., Science Advances, Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adf1550
Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification, Zhang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37373-4
Trifunctional Rare-Metal-Free Electrocatalysts Prepared Entirely from Biomass, Ishibashi et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200107
Geoengineering climate
Risk–risk governance in a low-carbon future: Exploring institutional, technological, and behavioral tradeoffs in climate geoengineering pathways, Sovacool et al., Risk Analysis, Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.13932
Solar geoengineering: The case for an international non-use agreement by Biermann et al. (DOI: 10.1002/wcc.754), , WIREs Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.835
Aerosols
Decadal trends in surface solar radiation and cloud cover over the North Atlantic sector during the last four decades: drivers and physical processes, Dong et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06438-3
Features and sources of aerosol properties over the western Pacific Ocean based on shipborne measurements, Wang et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-023-00960-7
Climate change communications & cognition
COVID-19 and climate change: The social-psychological roots of conflict and conflict interventions during global crises, Burrows et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.837
War and pandemic do not jeopardize Germans’ willingness to support climate measures, Rinscheid & Koos, Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00755-z
War and pandemic do not jeopardize Germans’ willingness to support climate measures, Rinscheid & Koos, Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00755-z
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessing the economic implications of climate change impacts on the Paraguayan agricultural sector, Benitez Rodriguez et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2023.2176186
Carbon-sink potential of continuous alfalfa agriculture lowered by short-term nitrous oxide emission events, Anthony et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37391-2
Changes in planting methods will change the potential distribution of rice in South China under climate warming, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109355
European farmers’ response to crop residue prices and implications for bioenergy policies, Gérard & Jayet Jayet Jayet, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113561
Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020, Deines et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113551
Harnessing the connectivity of climate change, food systems and diets: Taking action to improve human and planetary health, Fanzo & Miachon, Anthropocene, Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100381
Hierarchy of value orientation and beliefs in climate change influencing the farmers’ extractive or non-extractive behavior on the farm, Karami, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03215-y
Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change, León-Muñoz et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100504
Management-induced changes in soil organic carbon and related crop yield dynamics in China's cropland, Lin et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16703
Positive response of maize husk traits for improving heat tolerance during flowering by alleviating husk inside temperature, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109455
Sustainable agricultural development under different climate change scenarios for El Moghra region, Western Desert of Egypt, Selim et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-03230-z
The effects of climate change on food production in India: evidence from the ARDL model, Ahmed et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03209-w
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Changes in extreme precipitation events in the Zambezi River basins based on CORDEX-CORE models, Part II: Future projections under 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C global warming levels, , International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8014
MOPREDAS¢ury database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060
Climate change economics
Can Chinese outward foreign direct investment help the belt and road low-carbon development? Evolutionary game in China’s environmental responsibility, Mao et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-03207-y
High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests, Baumbach et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37796-z
The nexus between CO2 intensity of GDP and environmental degradation in South European countries, Ali et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-03217-w
Climate change and the circular economy
How much sorting is required for a circular low carbon aluminum economy?, Pedneault et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13388
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Community-based energy revolution: An evaluation of China's photovoltaic poverty alleviation Program's economic and social benefits, Xiao et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113555
Creating Quantitative Scenario Projections for the UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Merkle et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100506
Ensuring a just energy transition: A distributional analysis of diesel tax reform in Spain with stakeholder engagement, Tomás et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113558
Microgrids and EU law: Three Microgrid models to solve one regulatory puzzle, Behrendt, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113483
Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns, Vinichenko et al., Environmental Research Letters, Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6
Quality of life and carbon emissions reduction: does digital economy play an influential role?, Xu et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2023.2197862
Subsidy removal, regional trade and CO2 mitigation in the electricity sector in the Middle East and North Africa region, Timilsina & Deluque Curiel, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113557
The impact of renewable and non-renewable energy on sustainable development in South Asia, Noor et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-03210-3
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
An inventory tool to assess displacement data in the context of weather and climate-related events, Thalheimer & Sok Oh, Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100509
Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events, J.J.M. van den Hurk et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation, Hirschfeld et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x
Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate, Zhai et al., Risk Analysis, Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.13955
Physical–cyber–human framework-based resilience evaluation toward urban power system: Case study from China, Wang et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.13941
Topic modelling the mobility response to heat and drought, Zander et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03524-1
Understanding perceived climate risks to household water supply and their implications for adaptation: evidence from California, Dobbin et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03517-0
What drives local climate change adaptation? A qualitative comparative analysis, Braunschweiger & Ingold , Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.03.013
Climate change impacts on human health
Present and future heat stress of preschoolers in five Swedish cities, Wallenberg et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100508
Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate-correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China, Cao et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16708
Climate change impacts on human culture
Climate change risk assessment for ski areas in China, Deng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.03.008
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Future-proofing ecosystem restoration through enhancing adaptive capacity, Frietsch et al., Communications Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s42003-023-04736-y
Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments, van Maanen et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01644-1
Research needs for a food system transition, McDermid et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2
Book reviews
The pivotal generation: why we have a moral responsibility to slow climate change right now, Dent, International Journal of Environmental Studies, Open Access 10.1080/00207233.2022.2099114
Utopianism for a Dying Planet: Life after Consumerism, Harnesk, Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2023.2192148
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
All-In Clark County Community Sustainability and Climate Action Plan, Clark County, Nevada
Through All-In Clark County, the County aims to promote sustainable practices and climate action throughout the entire community to ensure that all residents can continue to thrive in the face of climate change. The All-In Community Plan focuses on five key areas including Clean & Reliable Energy, Connected & Equitable Mobility, Diverse & Circular Economy, Resilient & Healthy Community, Smart Buildings & Development, and Sustainable Water Systems.
Findings and Recommendations for the Third RGGI Program Review, Ben Butterworth and Paola Moncada Tamayo, Acadia Center
The authors analyzed the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) program's effects to date and offer recommendations for adjusting RGGI in the coming years. The authors found that the nine states which have consistently participated in RGGI have experienced a more rapid increase in GDP per capita and a more rapid decline in power sector CO2 emissions and retail electricity prices than other states. RGGI has significantly contributed to state efforts to reduce climate pollution and benefit consumers. However, the authors recommend RGGI address the impacts of power plant pollution on local communities, as these communities are disproportionately impacted by NOx emissions which have detrimental health impacts.
Audit of Military Department Climate Change Assessments and Adaptation Plans in the Southeastern Continental United States, Office of the Inspector General, Department of Defense
The audit was performed to determine whether the Military Services (Army, Navy, Air Force) assessed facility resilience and planned for the adaptations needed to address climate change and extreme weather events at installations in the southeastern continental United States bordering the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic coast from Texas to Virginia. The audit focused on the climate resilience assessments performed by the Military Departments. The Military Departments did not consistently develop the climate resilience assessments required by law or policy at the five installations included in the audit. Personnel at these five installations did not use a standardized approach to conduct and document their climate assessment because Department of Defense guidance has not been updated to reflect the changes in the law.
Surface air temperature for March 2023, Copernicus Climate Change Service
March of 2023 was jointly the second warmest March globally. While temperatures were above average over southern and central Europe, over most of northern Europe temperatures fell below average. On a global scale, it was much warmer than average over a vast swathe of land covering North Africa, south-western Russia, and most of Asia, where many new high temperatures records for March were set. Many above-average temperatures also occurred over north-eastern North America, Argentina, and neighboring countries, as well as across a large part of Australia and coastal Antarctica. Conversely, it was much colder than average over western and central North America.
Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2022, Rand et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Utilities and regional grid operators require projects seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new grid system upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and then estimates and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects that have applied to connect to the grid and initiated this study process are known as “interconnection queues”. There has been a substantial increase in annual interconnection requests (both in terms of number and capacity) since 2013; over 700 GW was added in 2022 alone. Over 2,000 GW (2 TW) of generation & storage capacity is active in queues. There is especially strong developer interest in solar (~947 GW) and storage (~680 GW), including hybrids. However, completion rates are generally low and wait times are increasing.
The Race For Electric Vehicle Adoption: The West Takes The Wheel With Seattle, San Francisco & San Jose Leading The Pack, Mirela Mohan, StorageCafe
As the electric race heats up, some places turn out to be better than others in fostering electric vehicle adoption. To see which places offer optimal conditions for EV uptake, the largest metropolitan areas in the country were analyzed with a population of over 500K (113 metro areas). These areas were then ranked against a series of metrics including the number of EVs, public chargers, price of electricity (expressed as an eGallon), a dedicated highway system (HOV and HOT lanes), condition of roads, clean energy, EV insurance costs, and local incentives. Additionally, as EV drivers tend to be multicar owners, the author also considered local self-storage provisions as this can help with parking and garage-space optimization. The author that the western U.S. dominates the list of the best places for electric cars. In line with their broader sustainability and smart-growth goals, western hubs have amplified efforts toward expanding and improving the infrastructure and market conditions so as to support EV uptake at a larger scale. Seattle has made great strides, as have San Francisco, San Jose, and Portland, to create a favorable context for people to embrace electric driving.
Utility-Scale Energy Storage. Technologies and Challenges for an Evolving Grid, Government Accountability Office
Technologies to store energy at the utility scale could help improve grid reliability, reduce costs, and promote the increased adoption of variable renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Energy storage technology use has increased along with solar and wind energy. Several storage technologies are in use on the U.S. grid, including pumped hydroelectric storage, batteries, compressed air, and flywheels. Pumped hydroelectric and compressed air energy storage can be used to store excess energy for applications requiring 10 or more hours of storage. Lithium-ion batteries and flywheels are used for shorter-duration applications such as keeping the grid stable by quickly absorbing or discharging electricity to match demand. Flow batteries represent a small fraction of total energy storage capacity and could be used for applications requiring 10 or more hours of storage. Metal-air batteries are being evaluated for applications requiring 10 or more hours of storage. Energy storage technologies face multiple challenges, including planning needed to integrate storage technologies with the existing grid, rules and regulations vary across regions and states, which forces energy storage project developers to navigate a patchwork of potential markets, and codes and standards may need revising and must keep pace with maturing technologies to minimize public safety and welfare risks.
Global Electricity Review 2023, Wiatros-Motyka et al., Ember
The authors provide the most transparent and up-to-date overview of changes in global electricity generation in 2022 and a realistic summary of how “on track” the electricity transition is for limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees. The authors analyze electricity data from 78 countries representing 93% of global electricity demand and include estimated changes in the remaining generation. It also dives deeper into the top ten CO2-emitting countries and regions, accounting for over 80% of global CO2 emissions. Wind and solar reached a record 12% of global electricity in 2022. By the end of 2023, wind and solar could push the world into a new era of falling fossil generation and therefore falling power sector emissions.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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