Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #44 2023
Posted on 2 November 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
Here we analyze historical and recent observations to show that ocean heat uptake has accelerated dramatically since the 1990s, nearly doubling during 2010–2020 relative to 1990–2000. Of the total ocean heat uptake over the Argo era 2005–2020, about 89% can be found in global mode and intermediate water layers, spanning both hemispheres and both subtropical and subpolar mode waters. Due to anthropogenic warming, there are significant changes in the volume of these water-mass layers as they warm and freshen. After factoring out volumetric changes, the combined warming of these layers accounts for ~76% of global ocean warming. We further decompose these water-mass layers into regional water masses over the subtropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and in the Southern Ocean. This shows that regional mode and intermediate waters are responsible for a disproportionate fraction of total heat uptake compared to their volume, with important implications for understanding ongoing ocean warming, sea-level rise, and climate impacts.
Secure and defensive forms of national identity and public support for climate policies
We hypothesize that in contrast to secure national identification, national narcissism, due to its motivational underpinnings, is related negatively to support for climate-change mitigating solutions. In Study 1 (N = 1134), we show that while secure national identity is positively related to support for developing renewable sources of energy and the Green Deal policy agenda, national narcissism is positively related to support for fossil fuel energy (and vice versa). In Study 2 (N = 1016), we found that allocating funds for reinforcing the green image of a country goes hand in hand with the support for policies aimed at mitigating climate change among those high in national narcissism. We put these findings in perspective by discussing the role of national narratives around the traditional sources of energy in shaping support for climate change mitigating policies.
Even as climate change as an environmental, economic, and social problem intensifies (July 2023, for instance, has become the warmest month on record, according to the World Meteorological Association [5]), bridging the gap between what the international community can mobilize versus what it needs to secure in terms of global climate finance is rapidly becoming the first among equal litmus test of the UN climate change convention (COP) process specifically and the international community more broadly in ensuring a viable path for a sustainable planetary future. As we look towards the 2023 COP28 Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), one obvious looming question is this: if we are still debating whether a relatively easy (or something that should be relatively easy) target of mobilizing USD 100 billion in climate finance for the developing world by 2020 has been achieved, how and when will the international community be ready to discuss the annual flows of USD 4.4 to USD 9.3 trillion in global climate finance that will be needed by 2030?
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2.
Climate change linked to vampire bat expansion and rabies virus spillover
Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus across the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution of D. rotundus in North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures at D. rotundus capture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less-seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association between D. rotundus range expansion and a continental-level rise in rabies virus spillover transmission from D. rotundus to cattle in the last 50 years of the 120-year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation-based studies reporting a likely increase of bat-borne diseases in response to climate change.
How Americans View Future Harms From Climate Change in Their Community and Around the U.S, Pew Research:
The authors conducted a new survey that found a majority of Americans think climate change is causing harm to people in the United States today and 63% expect things to get worse in their lifetime. Young adults ages 18 to 29 are especially likely to foresee worsening climate impacts: 78% think harm to people in the U.S. caused by climate change will get a little or a lot worse in their lifetime. About a quarter of Americans (23%) think they will have to make major sacrifices in their everyday lives because of climate change. A larger share (48%) expects to make minor sacrifices because of climate impacts and 28% of Americans expect to make no sacrifices at all.
110 articles in 59 journals by 575 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends, Vautard et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
Interactions between cold cyclonic eddies and a western boundary current modulate marine heatwaves, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01041-8
Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming, Jiang & Zhou, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl105427
The Role of Diffusivity Changes on the Pattern of Warming in Energy Balance Models, Chang & Merlis Merlis, Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0121.1
Wintertime Cooling of the Arctic TOA by Low-Level Clouds, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104869
Observations of climate change, effects
Analysis of heatwaves based on the universal thermal climate index and apparent temperature over mainland Southeast Asia, Liu & Qin, International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02562-9
Climate change and anthropogenic effects on the drying of a saline lake in an arid region (Namak Lake, Iran), Sheikh et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04622-x
Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal Himalayas, Khadka et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02142-y
Differential effects of climate change on average and peak demand for heating and cooling across the contiguous USA, Amonkar et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01048-1
High Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground, Chartrand et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40795-9
Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42468-z
Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes, Zhou et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01695-4
Start&2023&4, Ivanov et al., Open Access pdf 10.3897/bdj.11.e100521.figure4
Statistical analysis of extreme and record-breaking daily maximum temperatures in peninsular Spain during 1960–2021, Castillo-Mateo et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106934
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Improving quantification of methane point source emissions from imaging spectroscopy, Pei et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113652
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe, Little et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6
Investigating a Derecho in a Future Warmer Climate, Lasher-Trapp et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0173.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Dissection of the Inter-Model Spread of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect in CMIP6 Models, Yu & Huang Huang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105112
Radiatively Active Hydrometeor Frequencies From CloudSat–CALIPSO Data for Evaluating Cloud Fraction in Global Climate Models, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd038511
Sensitivity of simulated soil water content, evapotranspiration, gross primary production and biomass to climate change factors in Euro-Mediterranean grasslands, Bellocchi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109778
Cryosphere & climate change
A Local Analytical Optimal Nudging for assimilating AMSR2 sea ice concentration in a high-resolution pan-Arctic coupled ocean (HYCOM 2.2.98) and sea ice (CICE 5.1.2) model, Wang et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-4487-2023
An empirical estimate for the snow albedo feedback effect, Kaufmann & Pretis, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03572-7
An Unprecedented Sea Ice Retreat in the Weddell Sea Driving an Overall Decrease of the Antarctic Sea-Ice Extent Over the 20th Century, Dalaiden et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104666
A Local Analytical Optimal Nudging for assimilating AMSR2 sea ice concentration in a high-resolution pan-Arctic coupled ocean (HYCOM 2.2.98) and sea ice (CICE 5.1.2) model, Wang et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-4487-2023
An empirical estimate for the snow albedo feedback effect, Kaufmann & Pretis, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03572-7
An Unprecedented Sea Ice Retreat in the Weddell Sea Driving an Overall Decrease of the Antarctic Sea-Ice Extent Over the 20th Century, Dalaiden et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104666
Glacier slowdown and rapid ice loss in the Tinguiririca and Cachapoal Basin, Central Andes of Chile, Jó et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104287
Subglacial discharge accelerates future retreat of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica, Pelle et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi9014
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry, Hill et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded, Reese et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
Sea level & climate change
Sea level rise and the increasing frequency of inundation in Australia’s most exposed estuary, Hanslow et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02138-8
Simulation of the impact of sea level rise groundwater flooding along the south-eastern coast of India, Ramesh et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101732
Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world, Vousdoukas et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
The Impact of Orbital Precession on Air-Sea CO2 Exchange in the Southern Ocean, Persch et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103820
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate change drives loss of bacterial gut mutualists at the expense of host survival in wild meerkats, Risely et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16877
Climate warming interacts with other global change drivers to influence plant phenology: A meta-analysis of experimental studies, Zhou et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14259
Contrasting responses to climate variability generate seasonal priority effects between native and invasive forest herbs, Buonaiuto & Wolkovich E. M. Wolkovich E. M. Wolkovich, Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14138
Decoupling between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis occurs under extreme heat in broadleaf tree species regardless of water access, Marchin et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16929
Effects of climate change-induced water temperature changes on the distribution of tidal river fish fauna in the Japanese archipelago, Itsukushima, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02098-z
Effects of microbial-converted ancient permafrost organic carbon on the growth and reproduction of Daphnia magna, Gan et al., Oecologia 10.1007/s00442-023-05467-x
Exploring climate-induced sex-based differences in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate biodiversity loss, Gissi et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40316-8
Fall-winter sea surface temperature anomalies affect subsequent spring-summer phytoplankton succession and bioluminescence patterns in the Black Sea coastal waters near Crimea, Evstigneev et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106246
Imagining reef futures after mass coral bleaching events, Datta et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103625
Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution and niche dynamics of Gastrodia elata, Hu et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15741
Incorporating intraspecific variation into species responses reveals both their resilience and vulnerability to future climate change, Palacio & Clark James S. Clark James S. Clark, Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06769
Mediterranean fish communities are struggling to adapt to global warming. Evidence from the western coast of Italy, Valente et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106176
Opposing effects of warming on the stability of above- and belowground productivity in facing an extreme drought event, Ma et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4193
Topographic Heterogeneity and Aspect Moderate Exposure to Climate Change Across an Alpine Tundra Hillslope, Jay et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007664
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Accelerated organic matter decomposition in thermokarst lakes upon carbon and phosphorus inputs, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16938
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets, Lamboll et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5
BioGeoChemical-Argo Floats Reveal Stark Latitudinal Gradient in the Southern Ocean Deep Carbon Flux Driven by Phytoplankton Community Composition, Terrats et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gb007624
Large inter-annual variation in carbon sink strength of a permanent grassland over 16 years: Impacts of management practices and climate, Feigenwinter et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109613
New ways for (in)validating the forest carbon neutrality hypothesis, McGrath et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16982
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Submarine Groundwater Discharge Strengthens Acidification in the Coastal Semi-Closed Bays, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103788
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Optimal design of carbon utilization business model and dynamic investment decision-making in complex conditions, Han & Liu, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03825-6
Decarbonization
Coming in from the cold: Heat pump efficiency at low temperatures, Gibb et al., Joule Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.joule.2023.08.005
Future Projections of Wind Energy Potentials in the Arctic for the 21st Century Under the RCP8.5 Scenario From Regional Climate Models (Arctic-CORDEX), Akperov et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100402
Techno-economic feasibility of using solar energy in small-scale broiler production, Doughan & Salam, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101337
Geoengineering climate
The Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Extreme Fire Weather Risk, Touma et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003626
Aerosols
The Importance of Dynamic Iron Deposition in Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Pacific Ocean Biogeochemistry, Drenkard et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102058
Climate change communications & cognition
Attention, sentiments and emotions towards emerging climate technologies on Twitter, Müller-Hansen et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102765
Cross-Country Analysis of the Association between Media Coverage and Exposure to Climate News with Awareness, Risk Perceptions, and Protest Participation Intention in 110 Countries, Thaker, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2023.2272299
Embedding climate change education into higher-education programmes, Padhra & Tolouei, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01847-6
Secure and defensive forms of national identity and public support for climate policies, Cislak et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000146
Women and climate change: examining discourses from the global north, Flavell, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2274762
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adaptation strategies for dealing with global atmospheric change in Mediterranean agriculture: a triple helix approach to the Spanish case study, Cruz Maceín et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02131-1
Central Role of Nitrogen Fertilizer Relative to Water Management in Determining Direct Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Global Rice-Based Ecosystems, Song et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2023gb007744
Climate change and cropland management compromise soil integrity and multifunctionality, Sünnemann et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01047-2
Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood, Cheung et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01822-1
Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia, Ahmad et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7
Climate-smart agricultural practices: a case of dairy cooperative farmers in Agula and Maychew, Northern Ethiopia, Balcha et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2271880
Extreme precipitation promotes invasion in managed grasslands, Ratcliffe et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4190
Global crop production increase by soil organic carbon, Ma et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01302-3
Past and present risk of spring frosts for fruit trees in the Czech Republic, Zahradní?ek et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04671-2
Power in climate change policy-making process in South Asia, Vij et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2271440
Role of Agrometeorological Advisory Services in Enhancing Food Security and Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change, Nannewar et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0130.1
Shifts in the pelagic fishery dynamics in response to regional sea warming and fishing in the Northeastern Mediterranean, Demirel et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02139-7
Soil organic carbon stocks in European croplands and grasslands: How much have we lost in the past decade?, De Rosa et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16992
To what extent are greenhouse-gas emissions offset by trees in a Sahelian silvopastoral system?, Agbohessou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109780
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Attributing historical streamflow changes in the Jhelum River basin to climate change, Javed et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03628-8
Climate change and anthropogenic effects on the drying of a saline lake in an arid region (Namak Lake, Iran), Sheikh et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04622-x
Diverging Global Dry and Humid Heat Responses to Modern Irrigation, Chiang et al., Earth Interactions Open Access pdf 10.1175/ei-d-23-0006.1
Observed Precipitation Trends Inferred from Canada’s Homogenized Monthly Precipitation Dataset, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0193.1
Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America, Mindlin et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0134.1
Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in Pakistan, Zaman et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8285
The Impact of an Extreme Cloud burst on Edinburgh Castle, Tett et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0196.1
Climate change economics
Risk modelling of ESG (environmental, social, and governance), healthcare, and financial sectors, Chaudhry et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.14195
Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world, Vousdoukas et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5
Understanding the USD 10+ trillion climate finance dilemma: Implications for the 2023 COP28 climate conference, Park, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000302
Will Temperature Changes in the Host Country Reduce the Inflow of International Direct Investment? Micro Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies, Ouyang et al., Environmental and Resource Economics 10.1007/s10640-023-00812-3
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A targeted approach to energy burden reduction measures: Comparing the effects of energy storage, rooftop solar, weatherization, and energy efficiency upgrades, Kerby et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113867
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets, Lamboll et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5
Built environment, daily activities and carbon emissions: Insights from an eight-week app-based survey in the Province of Utrecht (Netherlands), Orsi & Avagyan, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101744
China’s climate governance from 2009 to 2019: motivations, instruments, actors, and geopolitics, Li et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2260352
Perception of district heating in Europe: A deep dive into influencing factors and the role of regulation, Billerbeck et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113860
Polycentric governance systems: addressing the power gap centered on climate entrepreneurs in Semnan Province of Iran, Islami et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2229776
Public support for decarbonization policies in the UK: exploring regional variations and policy instruments, Bretter & Schulz, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2273302
Realizing the social value of impermanent carbon credits, Balmford et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01815-0
Run-of-river hydropower in the UK and Ireland: the case for abstraction licences based on future flows, Dallison & Patil, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad064c
UK Net Zero policy design and deep uncertainty – The need for an alternative approach, Rodriguez Mendez et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103619
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia, Thalheimer et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100570
Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century, Gao & Bukovsky, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42084-x
Climate change impacts on human health
Clean energy use and subjective and objective health outcomes in rural China, Zhu et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113797
Climate change linked to vampire bat expansion and rabies virus spillover, Van de Vuurst et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06714
Ecological Degradation and the Risk of Mosquito-Borne Disease in the Great Lakes Basin, Russell et al., EcoHealth 10.1007/s10393-023-01646-7
Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming, Ying, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1080/16742834.2012.11447047
Climate change & geopolitics
The geopolitical economy of an undermined energy transition: The case of Jordan, Schuetze & Hussein, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113655
Other
Increasing ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wavefield since the late 20th century, Aster et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42673-w
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A challenge for sustainability science: can we halt climate change?, Nishioka, Sustainability Science Open Access 10.1007/s11625-023-01405-1
A Look at 2022: Takeaway Points from the State of the Climate, Bartow-Gillies et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0192.1
A sustainable food future, Horton, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.230702
Rethinking climate crisis solutions in Asian cities by harnessing local evidence, Nugroho, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000255
Static Energy Deserves Greater Emphasis in the Meteorology Community, Chavas & Peters, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0013.1
Book reviews
Women and climate change: examining discourses from the global north, Flavell, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2274762
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Principles for Climate-Related Financial Risk Management for Large Financial Institutions, The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Three federal agencies announced principles for climate-related financial risk management for large financial institutions (principles), which are designed to support the identification and management of climate-related financial risks by financial institutions with more than $100 billion in total consolidated assets. The principles are intended to support large financial institutions’ efforts to focus on key aspects of climate-related financial risk management and provide a high-level framework for climate-related financial risk management consistent with the three agencies’ existing rules and guidance.
Better Buildings Progress Reports, US. Department of Energy
the Department of Energy launched the Better Buildings Initiative in 2011 to help make buildings and facilities more energy efficient by addressing common barriers and sharing best practices from market leaders across every sector of the economy. More than 900 organizations now participate in the initiative. These organizations include state and local governments that provide public services, school districts and universities that educate the nation’s students, and nearly 30 Fortune 100 companies that provide millions of jobs and fuel economic growth. The Better Climate Challenge was launched to prioritize greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions at the portfolio level. In the first year of reporting results, partners reported data across nearly 850 million square feet of buildings and 2,100 industrial plants. On average, partners are reducing their GHG emissions by more than 20% from their base year.
Transforming Interconnection. Paving the way to reliably achieve an energy transition on the U.S. transmission system by 2035, Gorman et al., US. Department of Energy
The authors present a roadmap that identifies and organizes nearer- and longer-term solutions that require multiple stakeholder actions to enable interconnection processes to meet expected interconnection demand. While improvements to the interconnection process have been ongoing in the U.S. since the 2000s, the backlogs in current queues motivate efforts to develop novel solutions. The roadmap focuses on bulk power system (BPS) interconnections and compiles solutions that provide a comprehensive set of opportunities for industry collaboration within the interconnection process. At the same time, the interconnection solutions identified in this roadmap are intended to be a collection of strategies rather than a rigid package of prescriptive fixes. Therefore, the authors present multiple paths that stakeholders within the industry should consider when determining the process reform activities that best suit their situations.
A Matter of Ambition: Examining the Steel Industry's Commitment to Net Zero by 2050, Global Energy Monitor, Global Energy Monitor and LeadIT
Only a third of the world’s top 50 steel producers have set targets to reach net zero emissions by 2050, despite these 50 producers being responsible for more than 60% of the sector’s emissions. The planned capacity for new coal-based blast furnaces is two-and-a-half times greater than the planned new green iron and steel capacity. Green iron and steel projects are growing, but not fast enough to outpace emissions-intensive technologies. Only 14 of the top 50 steel producers have defined the scope of emissions they plan to address through long-term decarbonization strategies and 6 of the 14 have not committed to specific target dates. Only 2 of the top 50 steel producers have included Scope 3 emissions in their net zero goals, demonstrating that top steel producers lack transparency around climate targets.
How Americans View Future Harms From Climate Change in Their Community and Around the U.S, Alec Tyson and Brian Kennedy, Pew Research Center
The authors conducted a new survey that found a majority of Americans think climate change is causing harm to people in the United States today and 63% expect things to get worse in their lifetime. Young adults ages 18 to 29 are especially likely to foresee worsening climate impacts: 78% think harm to people in the U.S. caused by climate change will get a little or a lot worse in their lifetime. About a quarter of Americans (23%) think they will have to make major sacrifices in their everyday lives because of climate change. A larger share (48%) expects to make minor sacrifices because of climate impacts and 28% of Americans expect to make no sacrifices at all.
The Circularity Gap Report, Circle Economy
The global economy is now only 7.2% circular; and it is getting worse year on year—driven by rising material extraction and use. The global economy increasingly relies on materials from virgin sources. Circularity goes down as the general rate of global material extraction rises. This is coupled with the fact that more and more materials are going into stocks such as roads, homes, and durable goods, thus leaving fewer materials to cycle back into the economy. A circular economy focused on cycling alone cannot keep up with virgin material use rising to unprecedented heights—we cannot recycle our way out of this one.
How Might California’s New Climate Disclosure Law Impact Federal Rulemaking? Estimating the overlap between California climate disclosure laws and the SEC's proposed climate disclosure rule, Frank et al., Public Citizen, Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, and The Sierra Club
Using publicly available data, the authors estimated the overlap between the Fortune 1000, which includes the largest publicly traded U.S. companies that would be subject to a Securities Exchange Commission rule, and the companies covered by SB 261 and SB 253, the California laws, which will be required to disclose their climate-related risks and their Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions regardless of the contours of the final SEC rule. Both laws apply to companies doing business in California, and SB 261 excludes insurance companies. SB 253 does not. The laws do not define the phrase doing business in California. The authors found that roughly 73% of Fortune 1000 companies (727) are covered by both SB 261 and SB 253, and an additional 2% (24 insurers) are covered by SB 253, but not SB 261.
Lawn Care Goes Electric, Dutzik et al., Frontier Group, Environment Texas Research & Policy Center, and CoPIRG Foundation
Gasoline-powered lawn and garden equipment – lawn mowers, string trimmers, leaf blowers, snow blowers, and other machines – is noisy and polluting, with some machines emitting as much pollution in an hour as driving hundreds of miles in a car. And that pollution is released right in the middle of neighborhoods, where people live and breathe, putting their health at risk. Electric lawn equipment is cleaner, quieter – and, over a lifetime of use, often cheaper – than gasoline-powered machines. Moreover, electric options are often just as capable as fossil fuel versions.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
Suggestions
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
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