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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2020

Posted on 14 October 2020 by Doug Bostrom

Zika follows climate

Sadie Ryan and coauthors combine what we know about the Zika virus and its preferred regime with modeling to show the pathogen will greatly expand its range during the next few decades. We do have some remaining control over the situation. From the abstract:

"In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus, concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature?dependent transmission model for Zika virus (ZIKV) to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid?century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst?case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people."

Open access and free to read: Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

95 Articles

Physical science of global warming & effects

Entropy Production Rates of the Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-19-0294.1

Observations of global warming & effects

Record?setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15388

Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps 1971 to 2019
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-289 (preprint)

Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02862-8 (preprint)

Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02884-2

Extending and understanding the South West Western Australian rainfall record using a snowfall reconstruction from Law Dome, East Antarctica
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-124 (preprint)

Dominant Influence of ENSO-Like and Global Sea Surface Temperature Patterns on Changes in Prevailing Boreal Summer Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0774.1

Contributions of climate change, elevated atmospheric CO2 and human activities to ET and GPP trends in the Three-North Region of China
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108183

Identification of possible dynamical drivers for long-term changes in temperature and rainfall patterns over Europe
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03373-3

Changes in daily extreme temperature and precipitation events in mainland China from 1960 to 2016 under global warming
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6865

Interdecadal summer warming of the Tibetan Plateau potentially regulated by a sea surface temperature anomaly in the Labrador Sea
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6871

Weakened impact of autumn Arctic sea ice concentration change on the subsequent winter Siberian High variation around the late?1990s
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6875

Increasingly uneven intra-seasonal distribution of daily and hourly precipitation over Eastern China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb1f1

Twenty years of European mountain permafrost dynamics—the PACE legacy
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abae9d

Dynamics of seasonally frozen ground in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: historical trend and future projection
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb731

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate & global warming

Technical note: Interpreting pH changes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-348 (preprint)

Modeling, simulation & projection of global warming & global warming effects MSWE

Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8

Downscaling fire weather extremes from historical and projected climate models
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02865-5

Different Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming and Interglacial Epochs Simulated by CMIP6 Models: Role of the Subtropical High
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0304.1

Spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation over China projected by PRECIS under RCPs
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105303

On the contribution of dynamic leaf area index in simulating the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM4)
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03414-x

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb397

Climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection advancement

Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w

Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi
Open Access DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.770

Streamflow-based evaluation of climate model sub-selection methods
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02854-8

How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0

Identifying the Externally?forced Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Signal through Florida Rainfall
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088361

The ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Models: A New Tool for Evaluating Climate Models with Field Data
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0282.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps 1971 to 2019
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-289 (preprint)

Contrasting modes of deglaciation between fjords and inter?fjord areas in eastern North Greenland
DOI: 10.1111/bor.12475


Andean drought and glacial retreat tied to Greenland warming during the last glacial period
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19000-8

Annually resolved Atlantic sea surface temperature variability over the past 2,900 y
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2014166117

Extending and understanding the South West Western Australian rainfall record using a snowfall reconstruction from Law Dome, East Antarctica
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-124 (preprint)

CO2?induced decoupling of tropical surface and thermocline water temperature at the onset of interglacials

More than one way to kill a spruce forest: The role of fire and climate in the late?glacial termination of spruce woodlands across the southern Great Lakes
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13517

Biology & global warming

The problem of scale in predicting biological responses to climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15358

Projections of Mountain Snowpack Loss for Wolverine Denning Elevations in the Rocky Mountains
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001537

Global warming increases latitudinal divergence in flowering dates of a perennial herb in humid regions across eastern Asia

Increasing climate driven taxonomic homogenisation but functional differentiation among river macroinvertebrate assemblages
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15389

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15390

Meta?analysis of multiple driver effects on marine phytoplankton highlights modulating role of pCO2

Contrasting responses to salinity and future ocean acidification in arctic populations of the amphipod Gammarus setosus

Ocean acidification impedes gustation-mediated feeding behavior by disrupting gustatory signal transduction in the black sea bream, Acanthopagrus schlegelii

Impact of short-term elevated temperature stress on winter-acclimated individuals of the marine gastropod Crepidula fornicata
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105180

A narrow window of summer temperatures associated with shrub growth in Arctic Alaska
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab897f

Coastal acidification and deoxygenation enhance settlement but do not influence movement behavior of creeping polyps of the irukandji jellyfish, Alatina alata (cubozoa)

Rapid onsets of warming events trigger mass mortality of coral reef fish
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009748117

Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3219

Interactive impacts of climate change and land?use change on the demography of montane birds
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3223

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Extreme event impacts on CO 2 fluxes across a range of high latitude, shrub-dominated ecosystems

COSORE: A community database for continuous soil respiration and other soil?atmosphere greenhouse gas flux data
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15353

Drivers of wildfire carbon emissions
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00922-6

Fuel availability not fire weather controls boreal wildfire severity and carbon emissions
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00920-8

The role of climate, foliar stoichiometry and plant diversity on ecosystem carbon balance
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15385

Secondary forests offset less than 10% of deforestation?mediated carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15352

A gridded inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions from Mexico based on Mexico’s national inventory of greenhouse gases and compounds
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb42b

Patterns and isotopic composition of greenhouse gases under ice in lakes of interior Alaska
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb493

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Can N2O emissions offset the benefits from soil organic carbon storage?

Evaluation of CO 2 capture performance on pumice modified by TEPA

Peatland protection and restoration are key for climate change mitigation
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abae2a

Forest regeneration on European sheep pasture is an economically viable climate change mitigation strategy
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf87

Geoengineering climate

Entropy Production Rates of the Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-19-0294.1

Black carbon

Global Radiative Impacts of Black Carbon Acting as Ice Nucleating Particles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089056

Climate change communications & cognition

Exploration of youth knowledge and perceptions of individual-level climate mitigation action
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb492

Use of aviation by climate change researchers: Structural influences, personal attitudes, and information provision
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102184

Agronomy & climate change

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020

Climate change and farmers’ perceptions: impact on rubber farming in the upper Mekong region
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02876-2

Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02862-8 (preprint)

Apple phenology occurs earlier across South Korea with higher temperatures and increased precipitation
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02029-1

Climate suitability for summer maize on the North China Plain under current and future climate scenarios
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6872

Decreasing wheat yield stability on the North China Plain: Relative contributions from climate change in mean and variability
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6882

Unique water scarcity footprints and water risks in US meat and ethanol supply chains identified via subnational commodity flows
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9a6a

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02877-1

A dual-track transition to global carbon pricing: the glass is half full
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1827537

A dual-track transition to global carbon pricing: nice idea, but doomed to fail
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1816888

Does China's carbon emission trading reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from listed firms
DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2020.09.007

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

Airports and environmental sustainability: a comprehensive review
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb42a

Sub- and non-state climate action: a framework to assess progress, implementation and impact
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1828796

Good data are not enough: understanding limited information use for climate risk and food security management in Guatemala
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100248

Carbon tax/subsidy policy choice and its effects in the presence of interest groups
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111886

Climate migration and health system preparedness in the United States
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1828795

Climate change adaptation

A systematic map of responses to climate impacts in urban Africa
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9d00

Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia

Climate change impacts on human culture

Exploring climate-driven non-economic loss and damage in the Pacific Islands
DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2020.07.004

Why predict climate hazards if we need to understand impacts? Putting humans back into the drought equation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02878-0

Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02884-2

Climate Change Impacts on Heat Stress in Brazil – Past, Present and Future Implications For Occupational Heat Exposure
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6877

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.29.20142422

Contextualizing climate justice activism: Knowledge, emotions, motivations, and actions among climate strikers in six cities
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102180

Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102183


Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4

Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: A global state-of-the-art
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-126 (preprint)

The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold?season air temperature variability over the last century

Incorporation of sea level rise in storm surge surrogate modeling
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04322-z

Overlooked organic vapor emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb62d

Enhanced understanding of poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf85

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Risk Perception and Risk Analysis in a Hyperpartisan and Virtuously Violent World
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13606

Prepare Scientists to Engage in Science?Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001628


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We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,3733, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A very few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. In respect of a  journal's decision to do so, we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."


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Previous edition

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