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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46, 2020

Posted on 18 November 2020 by Doug Bostrom

If you learn something, say something

The American Meteorological Society publication The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences is encouraging authors to think about a wider readership's needs when submitting papers:

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) mission statement specifically calls for advancing “the atmospheric and related sciences . . . for the benefit of society.” To further the goal of communicating the importance of the science in our journals more widely, AMS is encouraging the inclusion in submitted papers of a “significance statement,” written in plain language and aimed at an educated layperson without formal training or education in the atmospheric and related sciences.

Integrating the public mind into research publications in this way lends institutional backing to help combat a myth— that a researcher pointing out hazards identified as a result of their normal work is being "activist," committing an act of political  or ideological advocacy.  In reality public information on hazards and risks is a perfectly normal moral obligation, hardly a transgression of the "correct" role for a researcher. But scientists are sometimes criticized for pointing out factually broad  impacts revealed by research output. This is a puzzling outcome, akin perhaps to an engineer arranging a safety belt for vehicle occupants but not being allowed to say what safety belts do or how to use them.

At this juncture a significant proportion of climate research is effectively safety research. Commensurately, expecting the general public and policy makers to guess at significance of findings with negative impacts on the wider well being is clearly not smart. For the general public's benefit a key skill for any given researcher is ability to "join up" immediate findings with the bigger picture. This AMS journal correctly puts contextual communication  to the public squarely in the normal, expected path of the publication process.  More, please.  The full statement.

93 Articles 

Observations of climate change & effects

Increase in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in the Past 100 Years Related to Tropical Atlantic Warming
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090539

Delayed Retreat of the Summer Monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula Linked to Surface Warming Trends
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6938

Tropospheric thermal field variability over Poland in the context of climate change
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6933

Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y

Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Southern Hemisphere Summer Season
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0084.1

Seasonal temperature and rainfall extremes 1911–2017 for Northern Australian population centres: challenges for human activity
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01706-6

Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03448-1

Spatio-temporal trends and variability of rainfall in Maharashtra, India: Analysis of 118 years
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03452-5

Variation of Main Rainy?Season Precipitation in Eastern China and Relevance to Regional Warming
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6929

A bigger picture of how the Tibetan lakes change over the past decade revealed by CryoSat?2 altimetry
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033161

Late 20th Century Indian Ocean Heat Content Gain Masked by Wind Forcing

A Potential Link Between the Southern Ocean Warming and the South Indian Ocean Heat Balance
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016132

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate & global warming, effects

National indicators of climate changes, impacts, and vulnerability
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02939-4

Detection of Melt Ponds on Arctic Summer Sea Ice from ICESat?2
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090644

Modeling, simulation & projection of global warming & global warming effects MSWE

Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001616

Tropical Rainfall Linked to Stronger Future ENSO?NAO Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088664

The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032701

Evaluation and Projection of Surface Wind Speed over China Based on CMIP6 GCMs
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033611

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3

21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-296 (preprint)

How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020

Contrasting recent and future ITCZ changes from distinct tropical warming patterns
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089846

Temperature and rainfall extremes change under current, 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming across Indian climate zones
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100291

Identifying future climate change and drought detection using CanESM2 in the upper Siem Reap River, Cambodia
DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2020.101182

Changes in the characteristics of ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Red Sea Trough over the Eastern Mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03449-0

CMIP5 climate projections for the Yamzhog Yumco Basin: an environmental testbed for alpine lakes
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03451-6

Future changes in precipitation for identified sub?regions in East Asia using bias?corrected multi?RCMs
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6936

Prediction and analysis of lake ice phenology dynamics under future climate scenarios across the Inner Tibetan Plateau
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033082

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Performance Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models on Heatwaves in Korea and Associated Teleconnection Patterns
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032583

GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020

Weaker links between zonal convective clustering and ITCZ width in climate models than in observations
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090479

Origins of the IOD-like Biases in CMIP Multimodel Ensembles: The Atmospheric Component and Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling

Interannual variability of the South Atlantic Ocean heat content in a high?resolution versus a low?resolution General Circulation Model
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089908

Cryosphere & climate change

Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-296 (preprint)

Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020

Necessary Conditions for Warm Inflow Towards the Filchner Ice Shelf, Weddell Sea
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089237

Thermal effect of thermokarst lake on the permafrost under embankment
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.10.002


Holocene climatic changes in the Westerly-Indian Monsoon realm and its anthropogenic impact
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-141 (preprint)

Biology & global warming

Are we ready to track climate?driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? ? A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15404

Climate change facilitates a parasite’s host exploitation via temperature?mediated immunometabolic processes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15402

Population variation in the thermal response to climate change reveals differing sensitivity in a benthic shark
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15422

DNA methylation changes in response to ocean acidification at the time of larval metamorphosis in the edible oyster, Crassostrea hongkongensis

Mountain treelines climb slowly despite rapid climate warming
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13214

Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15395

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Soil organic carbon accumulation rates on Mediterranean abandoned agricultural lands
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143535

Higher temperature sensitivity of soil C release to atmosphere from northern permafrost soils as indicated by a meta?analysis
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006688

First Pan-Arctic Assessment of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Permafrost-Region Lakes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-408 (preprint)

The role of termite CH4 emissions on ecosystem scale: a case study in the Amazon rain forest (preprint)

Does export production measure transient changes of the biological carbon pump’s feedback to the atmosphere under global warming?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089928

Global patterns and climate controls of terrestrial ecosystem light use efficiency
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005908

Evaluation of Bursa metropolitan greenhouse Gas inventory and reduction targets
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100717

The marginal abatement cost curve and optimized abatement trajectory of CO 2 emissions from China’s petroleum industry

Direct response of tree growth to soil water and its implications for terrestrial carbon cycle modelling
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15397

Much stronger tundra methane emissions during autumn freeze than spring thaw
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15421

Recognizing the complexity of soil organic carbon dynamics in vegetated coastal habitats
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15426

Integrating carbon emission, accumulation, and transport in inland waters to understand their role in the global carbon cycle

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Sinking CO2 in supercritical reservoirs
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503991.2

Advancing carbon management through the global commoditization of CO2: the case for dual-use LNG-CO2 shipping
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2020.1840871

Characterizing Tracer Transport Behavior in Two?phase Flow system: Implications for CO2 Geosequestration

Geoengineering climate

Is solar geoengineering ungovernable? A critical assessment of governance challenges identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.690

Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2003730117

Climate change communications & cognition

Eco-reproductive concerns in the age of climate change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02923-y

The ‘end of the world’ vs. the ‘end of the month’: understanding social resistance to sustainability transition agendas, a lesson from the Yellow Vests in France
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-020-00877-9

On the nature of eco-anxiety: How constructive or unconstructive is habitual worry about global warming?
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101528

Agronomy & climate change

Elevated atmospheric CO2 reduces yield?scaled N2O fluxes from subtropical rice systems: Six site?years field experiments

Current rice models underestimate yield losses from short?term heat stresses
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15393

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

The marginal abatement cost curve and optimized abatement trajectory of CO 2 emissions from China’s petroleum industry

Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: A Meta-Analysis
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00521-1

An assessment of the potential of using carbon tax revenue to tackle poverty
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb55d

Cost of avoided carbon: Optimizing power supply in southern India
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111988

Emission tax vs. permit trading under bounded rationality and dynamic markets
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112009

Carbon pricing and COVID-19
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1831432

A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-977-2020

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

Accountability and data-driven urban climate governance
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00953-z

Regulatory and social dynamics of voluntary agreement adoption: The case of voluntary energy efficiency and GHG reduction agreement in South Korea
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111903

Climate change impacts on human health

The relationship between dysentery and climatic parameters in Iran
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100697

Profile Eestimates for the analysis of climatic and socio-sanitary vulnerability to dengue in municipalities in Northeast Brazil
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100712

The effects of climatic and environmental factors on heat-related illnesses: A systematic review from 2000 to 2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100720

Climate change adaptation

Awareness of urban climate adaptation strategies –an international overview
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100705

Seasonal temperature and rainfall extremes 1911–2017 for Northern Australian population centres: challenges for human activity
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01706-6

Water scarcity, climate adaptation, and armed conflict: insights from Africa
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01713-7

Climate change impacts on human culture

Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02899-9

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3


CO2 fertilization effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon (preprint)

Atlantic Deep Water Formation Occurs Primarily in the Iceland Basin and Irminger Sea by Local Buoyancy Forcing
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091028

Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089504

Spatial and temporal variability of brown carbon in United States: implications for direct radiative effects
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090332

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Reviews of Observational and Modeling Advances – an Introduction
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016745

National indicators of climate changes, impacts, and vulnerability
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02939-4

Arctic Ocean Freshening Linked to Anthropogenic Climate Change: All Hands on Deck
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504220.1

Significance Statements Communicate Our Science More Widely
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/ei-d-20-0024.1

Climate change literature and information gaps in mountainous headwaters of the Columbia River Basin
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01721-7

Using big data analytics to synthesize research domains and identify emerging fields in urban climatology
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.688


Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,3733, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 
  • If you're interested in an article and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. Due to time constraints open access articles are identified by us via  imperfect machine analysis. Compared with Unpaywall statistics we successfully  identify roughly 2/3rds of open access articles. There's definitely gold left in the ground. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."


Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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