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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51, 2020

Posted on 23 December 2020 by doug_bostrom

 Policy dilution

Wang et al deliver a remarkable soup-to-nuts examination of adaptation policy as it pertains to increasing climate change and accompanying coastal inundation events. With reference particularly to outcomes in a country where policymakers at the top level have been sensitive to the need for and have promulgated forward-leaning responses to increased exposure, the authors examine what happens as specific policy formulations  trickle down to the local scale, confronting and being buffeted by various confounding influences. Typhoon Haiyan is used as a principle example. From the article discussion of findings: 

In hindsight, the Haiyan disaster highlights the gaps across tiers of government from national to city/local levels down to communities, households, and individuals, as shown in Fig. 23, at horizontal and vertical scales. In fact, the Philippine government has exerted significant efforts and great progress in developing national policies to mitigate the risks of natural disasters and climate change. However, the relevance of these policies to implementation and their influence gradually diminish at the finer scale of provinces, local government, communities, and householders, thereby creating a significant barrier for the government to build a proper level of capacity for the local communities and householders in response to natural disasters and climate change risks such as Haiyan.

We're entering an era of unprecedented challenges as the effects of changes we've wrought on climate collide with our culture. It's going to require concerted attention at all levels to minimize the mayhem in our future. Research of  this kind will help us to tune and improve our success. Reflections on coastal inundation, climate change impact, and adaptation in built environment: Progresses and constraints is open access and well worth attention.

96 Articles

Physical science of climate change, effects

An observation-based scaling model for climate sensitivity estimates and global projections to 2100
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05521-x

The Study of Changing Characteristics of the Winter Temperature and Extreme Cold Events in China over the Past Six Decades
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6970

Observations of climate change, effects

Regional changes in extreme temperature records over Pakistan and their relation to Pacific variability
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105407

Investigation of the Arctic sea ice volume from 2002 to 2018 using multi?source data
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6972

Global pattern of historical and future changes in rapid temperature variability
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abccf3

Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

FORUM: Unique Far-Infrared Satellite Observations to Better Understand How Earth Radiates Energy to Space
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0322.1

Increased Drought Risk in South Asia under Warming Climate: Implications of Uncertainty in Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-19-0224.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Meteorological droughts are projected to worsen in Central America’s dry corridor throughout the 21st century
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc5e2

Extreme Precipitation Changes in Europe from the Last Millennium to the End of the Twenty-First Century

Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble (preprint)

Projecting circum-Arctic excess-ground-ice melt with a sub-grid representation in the Community Land Model
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020

Snow on Arctic sea ice in a warming climate as simulated in CESM

Future changes in the Asian?Australian monsoon system with 1.5°C and 2°C rise in temperature

Brief communication: CMIP6 does not suggest any atmospheric blocking increase in summer over Greenland by 2100
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6977

Global marine heatwave events using the new CMIP6 multi-model ensemble: from shortcomings in present climate to future projections
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc847

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessing Goodness of Fit to a Gamma Distribution and Estimating Future Projection on Daily Precipitation Frequency Using Regional Climate Model Simulations over Japan with and without the Influence of Tropical Cyclones
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-20-0068.1

Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3349

Do CMIP6 Climate Models simulate Global or Regional Compound Events skilfully?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091152

Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.654

Assessment of CMIP6 models skill for Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature variability
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6975

Influence of a spectral cumulus parameterization on simulating global tropical cyclone activity in an AGCM
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3965

Annual and seasonal mean tropical and subtropical precipitation bias in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc7dd

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc778

Cryosphere & climate change

The albedo loss from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the social cost of carbon
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02936-7

Snow conditions in northern Europe: the dynamics of interannual variability versus projected long-term change
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-343 (preprint)

Thermal erosion patterns of permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-338 (preprint)

Evaluating seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean from the Last Glacial Maximum
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-155 (preprint)

Snow on Arctic sea ice in a warming climate as simulated in CESM

Investigation of the Arctic sea ice volume from 2002 to 2018 using multi?source data
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6972

Paleoclimate

New insights into lake responses to rapid climate change: the Younger Dryas in Lake Go?ci??, central Poland
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/bor.12499

Biology & climate change

Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-440 (preprint)

Large?scale evidence for microbial response and associated carbon release after permafrost thaw
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15487

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15486

Inhibitory effects of climate change on the growth and extracellular enzyme activities of a widespread Antarctic soil fungus
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15456

Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: unexpected climate?driven ecosystem shifts
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15494

Genomic vulnerability to rapid climate warming in a tree species with a long generation time
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15469

Climate?driven carry?over effects negatively influence population growth rate in a food?caching boreal passerine
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15445

Windows of vulnerability: Seasonal mismatches in exposure and resource identity determine ocean acidification’s effect on a primary consumer at high latitude
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15449

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15497

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15499

Vascular plant species response to warming and elevated carbon dioxide in a boreal peatland
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4fb

Recent California tree mortality portends future increase in drought-driven forest die-off
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc719

Foliar fungi and plant diversity drive ecosystem carbon fluxes in experimental prairies

Climate sensitivity of understory trees differs from overstory trees in temperate mesic forests
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3264

Tracking snowmelt to jump the green wave: phenological drivers of migration in a northern ungulate
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3268

Taking climate change into account: non?stationarity in climate drivers of ecological response
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13572

Climate?driven conifer mortality in Siberia
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13243

Climate warming prolongs the time interval between leaf?out and flowering in temperate trees: Effects of chilling, forcing and photoperiod
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13558

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-440 (preprint)

Reviews and syntheses: Heterotrophic fixation of inorganic carbon – significant but invisible flux in global carbon cycling
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-465 (preprint)

Variables in the effect of land use on soil extrapore enzymatic activity and carbon stabilization
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19900-9

Reply to: “Variables in the effect of land use on soil extrapore enzymatic activity and carbon stabilization” by Glenn
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19901-8

Management induced changes of soil organic carbon on global croplands
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-468 (preprint)

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00977-5

Changes in Biomass Turnover Times in Tropical Forests and Their Environmental Drivers from 2001 to 2012
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001655

Cross?shore flow and implications for Carbon Export in the California Current Ecosystem: a Lagrangian analysis

Large?scale evidence for microbial response and associated carbon release after permafrost thaw
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15487

Long?term, amplified responses of soil organic carbon to nitrogen addition worldwide
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15489

Topsoil organic matter build?up in glacier forelands around the world
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15496

Facts to acidification?induced carbonate losses from Chinese croplands
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15478

The connection between urbanization and carbon emissions: a panel evidence from West Africa
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01124-y

Country-scale trends in air pollution and fossil fuel CO 2 emissions during 2001–2018: confronting the roles of national policies and economic growth

Human-caused fires release more carbon than lightning-caused fires in the conterminous United States
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcbbc

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Physical and policy pathways to net?zero emissions industry
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.633

Soil carbon sequestration simulated in CMIP6-LUMIP models: implications for climatic mitigation
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc912

Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets
Open Access DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1857218

A study on the impact of storage boundary and caprock morphology on carbon sequestration in saline aquifers
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.2044

A comparative CO2 emissions analysis and mitigation strategies of short-sea shipping and road transport in the Marmara Region
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2020.1852853

Geoengineering climate

Climate more responsive to marine cloud brightening than ocean albedo modification: A model study
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033256

Climate change communications & cognition

Event?based storylines to address climate risk
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001783

Protective behaviors regarding coastal flooding risk in a context of climate change
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.12.001

Investing in climate solutions? An exploration of the discursive power and materiality of fossil fuel divestment campaigns in Scotland
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13412-020-00653-2

Echo Chamber Effects in the Climate Change Blogosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2020.1861048

Agronomy & climate change

Management induced changes of soil organic carbon on global croplands
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-468 (preprint)

Adjusting the sowing date of spring maize did not mitigate against heat stress in the North China Plain
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108274

Carbonate loss and resulting CO2 emission from croplands: From incorrect calculations to overestimated predictions

Facts to acidification?induced carbonate losses from Chinese croplands
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15478

Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Country-scale trends in air pollution and fossil fuel CO 2 emissions during 2001–2018: confronting the roles of national policies and economic growth

Green jobs and energy efficiency as strategies for economic growth and the reduction of environmental impacts
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112031

The Potential Impact of the U.S. Carbon Capture and Storage Tax Credit Expansion on the Economic Feasibility of Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112064

Mitigating poverty: The patterns of multiple carbon tax and recycling regimes for Peru
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111961

Border carbon adjustments and industrial competitiveness in a European Green Deal
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1856637

A carbon horse race: abatement subsidies vs. permit trading in Switzerland
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1846485

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Plants with less chlorophyll: A global change perspective
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15470

Physical and policy pathways to net?zero emissions industry
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.633

Climate change impacts on human health

Developing equitable health and climate solutions: insights from the field
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abca66

Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13652

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Water Smart Cities Increase Irrigation to Provide Cool Refuge in a Climate Crisis
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001806

Protective behaviors regarding coastal flooding risk in a context of climate change
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.12.001

Using logistic regression to model the risk of sewer overflows triggered by compound flooding with application to sea level rise
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100752

Reflections on coastal inundation, climate change impact, and adaptation in built environment: Progresses and constraints
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.11.010

Indicators and monitoring systems for urban climate resiliency
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02947-4

Environmental justice in coastal systems: Perspectives from communities confronting change
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102208

Achieving sustainable future objectives under uncertain conditions: Application of a learning framework to adaptation pathways in rural Mali
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.11.013

Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc378

Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265

Climate change impacts on human culture

Direct and indirect effects of heatwaves on a coral reef fishery
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15472

Climate change mitigation through dietary change: a systematic review of empirical and modelling studies on the environmental footprints and health effects of ‘sustainable diets’
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc2f7

Other

On the along?slope heat loss of the Boundary Current in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

Using artificial neural networks to model the impacts of climate change on dust phenomenon in the Zanjan region, north-west Iran
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100750

Comparison between averaged and localised subsidence measurements for coastal floods projection in 2050 Semarang, Indonesia
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100760

Reduction in Extreme Climate Events and Potential Impacts by the Use of Technological Advances
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6971

The importance of socioeconomic conditions in mitigating climate change impacts and achieving Sustainable Development Goals
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcac4

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

From Anthropocene to Noosphere: The Great Acceleration
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001917

Reflections on coastal inundation, climate change impact, and adaptation in built environment: Progresses and constraints
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.11.010

 


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