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Climate Hustle

New research, November 20-26, 2017

Posted on 1 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Figure is from paper #6.

Climate change

1. Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005-2015

"Our results show that the acceleration during the last decade (0.27 ± 0.17 mm/yr2) is about three times faster than its value during 1993–2014. The acceleration comes from three factors, i.e. 0.04 ± 0.01 mm/yr2 (~15%) by land ice melting, 0.12 ± 0.06 mm/yr2 (~44%) by thermal expansion of the sea water, and 0.11 ± 0.02 mm/yr2 (~41%) by declining land water storage."

2. Relationship between ocean carbon and heat multi-decadal variability

"Although the magnitude and frequency of variability in global heat and carbon content is different across the model simulations, there is a robust anti-correlation between global heat and carbon content in all simulations."

3. Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015

"The year 2015 appeared as a paradox regarding how global carbon cycle has responded to climate variation: it is the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observation, but the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is also the highest since 1959. We found that this is due to a only moderate land carbon sink, because high growing-season sink in northern lands has been partly offset by autumn and winter release and the late-year El Niño has led to an abrupt transition to land source in the tropics."

4. Influence of Global Warming on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensities during 2015

"Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Niño is negligible. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continued multidecadal warming."

5. Intensified mega-ENSO has increased the proportion of intense tropical cyclones over the western Northwest Pacific since the late 1970s

"Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) formed over the western part of the western North Pacific (WWNP) pose greater coastal risk than those formed over the eastern part (EWNP). Here we show that the proportion of intense TCs relative to all TCs (PITC) locally formed over the WWNP west of 140E has almost doubled since the late 1970s. However, that over the EWNP has experienced little change. This sharp west-east contrast is primarily driven by the La Nina-like sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the Pacific, identified as the mega-ENSO in previous studies. The strong warming in the WWNP has contributed greatly to the increased PITC while the dynamical conditions associated with the intensified mega-ENSO play a vital opposite role in offsetting and even overweighting the effect of local SST warming over the EWNP."

6. Rigorous 3D change determination in Antarctic Peninsula glaciers from stereo WorldView-2 and archival aerial imagery

"81% of glaciers studied showed considerable loss of volume over the period of record. The mean annual mass loss for all glaciers yielded 0.24 ± 0.08 m.w.e. per year, with a maximum mass loss of up to 62 m.w.e. and frontal retreat exceeding 2.2 km for Stadium Glacier, located furthest north on Elephant Island. Observed volumetric loss was broadly, though not always, correlated with frontal retreat. The combined mass balance of all 16 glaciers yielded − 1.862 ± 0.006 Gt, which corresponds to − 0.005 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) over the 57 year observation period."

7. Quantifying the uncertainties in an ensemble of decadal climate predictions

8. Potential large-scale forcing mechanisms driving enhanced North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since the mid-1990s

9. Winter Eurasian cooling linked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

10. Results of the first Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment

11. The role of snow in the thickening processes of lake ice at Lake Abashiri, Hokkaido, Japan

12. GPS-derived estimates of surface mass balance and ocean-induced basal melt for Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, Antarctica

13. Antarctic grounding line mapping from CryoSat-2 radar altimetry

14. Detecting high spatial variability of ice shelf basal mass balance, Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica

15. Wave-induced stress and breaking of sea ice in a coupled hydrodynamic discrete-element wave–ice model

16. Sensitivity of simulated South America climate to the land surface schemes in RegCM4

17. High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

18. Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

19. Flash droughts: a review and assessment of the challenges imposed by rapid onset droughts in the United States

20. How would the 21st-century warming influence Pacific decadal variability and its connection to North American rainfall: assessment based on a revised procedure for IPO/PDO

21. Anomalies of hydrological cycle components during the 2007 heat wave in Bulgaria

22. Diagnosing Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Extreme Rainfall

23. Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932–2010

24. Implications of differential effects between 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on temperature and precipitation extremes in China's urban agglomerations

25. Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China

26. Observed and Simulated Spring and Summer Dryness in the United States: the Impact of the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and Beyond

27. Linkage between global sea surface temperature and hydroclimatology of a major river basin of India before and after 1980

28. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models

29. Carbon uptake and biogeochemical change in the Southern Ocean, south of Tasmania

30. Surface Water pCO2 Variations and Sea-Air CO2 Fluxes During Summer in the Eastern Canadian Arctic

31. Year-round CH4 and CO2 flux dynamics in two contrasting freshwater ecosystems of the subarctic

32. Soil pH as the chief modifier for regional nitrous oxide emissions: New evidence and implications for global estimates and mitigation

33. Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990–2013

34. Cloudy-sky land surface longwave downward radiation (LWDR) estimation by integrating MODIS and AIRS/AMSU measurements

35. Real-time Determination of Earth Radiation Budget Spectral Signatures for Non-Linear Unfiltering of Results from MERBE

36. Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition 4.0 Data Product

37. Characteristics of mid-level clouds over West Africa

38. A Comparison of Daily Temperature Averaging Methods: Spatial Variability and Recent Change for the CONUS

39. Evaluating modeled impact metrics for human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate

40. Evaluating the relationship between climate change and volcanism

Climate change impacts

41. Large-scale bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef

"In 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching." ... "The severity of bleaching on individual reefs in 2016 was tightly correlated with the level of local heat exposure: the southernmost region of the Great Barrier Reef escaped with only minor bleaching because summer temperatures there were close to average." ... "Two earlier mass bleaching events occurred on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998 and 2002, that were less severe than 2016. In 2016, less than 9% of scored reefs had no bleaching, compared to 42% in 2002 and 44% in 1998. Conversely, the proportion of reefs that were severely bleached (>60% of corals affected) was four times higher in 2016."

42. Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century

"This paper presents the extent to which climate, harvest and prices influenced the major migration waves from southwest Germany into North America during the 19th century, a century of dramatic climatic and societal changes."

43. Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming

"We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size–temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common."

44. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

"Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing forest die-off in the past decades. However, growth would increase in moist refugia. Circum-Mediterranean fir forests currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable according to the climate model predictions for the late 21st century."

45. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

46. Maize leaf functional responses to drought episode and rewatering

47. Predicting the risk of cucurbit downy mildew in the eastern United States using an integrated aerobiological model

48. The impact of climate change on air conditioning requirements in Andalusia at a detailed scale

49. The relationship between thermal sensation and the rate of hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease in Kermanshah, Iran

50. Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States

51. Environmental impacts and causes of conflict in the Horn of Africa: A review

52. The role of knowledge in climate transition and transformation literatures

53. Resilient futures of a small island: A participatory approach in Tenerife (Canary Islands) to address climate change

54. Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea-level rise

55. Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding

56. An investigation of coastal climate change risk assessment practice in Australia

57. Climate Change Impacts on Selected Global Rangeland Ecosystem Services

58. Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica in the Western Ghats, India

59. Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations

60. Increased precipitation has stronger effects on plant production of an alpine meadow than does experimental warming in the Northern Tibetan Plateau

61. Climate and nutrient effects on Arctic wetland plant phenology observed from phenocams

62. Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

63. Antarctic emerald rockcod have the capacity to compensate for warming when uncoupled from CO2-acidification

64. The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity

65. Both life history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis

66. Physical effects of habitat-forming species override latitudinal trends in temperature

67. How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models

68. Coral calcifying fluid aragonite saturation states derived from Raman spectroscopy

Climate change mitigation

69. Transformation of Japan's energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050

"Based on a scenario analysis performed using AIM/Enduse [Japan], Japan's energy supply sector requires a radical transformation, including reliance on carbon dioxide removal options such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to attain net-zero emissions by 2050 without substantial social changes."

70. Variation in beliefs about 'fracking' between the UK and US

"The US sample was more likely to associate positive impacts with development (i.e. production of clean energy, cheap energy, and advancing national energy security). The UK sample was more likely to associate negative impacts (i.e. water contamination, higher carbon emissions, and earthquakes)."

71. Integrated assessment of international climate mitigation commitments outside the UNFCCC

72. The role of cities in multi-level climate governance: local climate policies and the 1.5 °C target

73. Pros and cons of online education as a measure to reduce carbon emissions in higher education in the Netherlands

74. Is financial development good for carbon mitigation in India? A regime shift-based cointegration analysis

75. How ‘Digital-born’ media cover climate change in comparison to legacy media: A case study of the COP 21 summit in Paris

76. Knowledge, perceptions, concerns, and behaviors to climate change—the Caribbean context: an introduction

77. Emission factors of CO2, CO and CH4 from Sumatran peatland fires in 2013 based on shipboard measurements

78. Quantifying methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania

79. Well-to-wheel GHG emissions and mitigation potential from light-duty vehicles in Macau

Other papers

80. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

81. The Little Ice Age in Iberian mountains

82. Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

83. Did anthropogeology anticipate the idea of the Anthropocene?

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