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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #42, 2021

Posted on 22 October 2021 by Doug Bostrom

105 articles by 463 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A simple model of blocking action over a hemisphere
Kurgansky Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03782-y

Mechanisms of European Summer Drying under Climate Change
Tuel & Eltahir Alizadeh Journal of Climate
Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0968.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Hotter and drier climate made the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa region a shrubbier landscape
Fang et al. Oecologia
Open Access 10.1007/s00442-021-05041-3

Urbanization Exacerbated Rainfall over European Suburbs under a Warming Climate
Yang et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl095987

Decadal changes of the Intraseasonal Oscillation during 1979?2016
Nan et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.10.001

Urbanization-induced changes in extreme climate indices in Thailand during 1970–2019
Pimonsree et al. Atmospheric Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105882

(provisional link) Historical Changes in the Davis Strait Baffin Bay Surface Winds and Waves, 1979–2016
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0054.1

(provisional link) Extreme Rainfall Events in the Northeastern United States Become More Frequent with Rising Temperatures, but Their Intensity Distribution Remains Stable
10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0938.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A prototype Earth system impact metric that accounts for cross-scale interactions
Lade et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2db1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening
Bonnet et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0

Reversal Asymmetry of Rainfall Change over the Indian Ocean During the Radiative Forcing Increase and Stabilization
Hou et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002272

Drylands face potential threat of robust drought in the CMIP6 SSPs scenarios
Li et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2bce

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms
Bercos-Hickey et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0901.1

Impact of tropical Atlantic Warming on the Pacific Walker circulation with numerical experiments of CGCM
Si-Min et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.012

Evaluation and projection of the AMO and PDO variabilities in the CMIP5 models under different warming scenarios part1: Evaluation
Xia et al. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101260

Time Scales of the Greenland Freshwater Anomaly in the Subpolar North Atlantic
Dukhovskoy et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0610.1

Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought
Pascale et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03228-4

Increasing the spatial and temporal impact of ecological research: A roadmap for integrating a novel terrestrial process into an Earth system model
Kyker?Snowman et al. Global Change Biology Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.15894

Dry and Moist Atmospheric Circulation with Uniform Sea-Surface Temperature
Suhas et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1002/qj.4191

Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the U.S. extreme cold weather
Yin & Zhao Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-021-00290-9

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Is There Any Improvement in Simulation of the Wintertime Western Pacific Teleconnection Pattern and Associated Climate Anomalies in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5 Models?
Aru et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0016.1

Warm-season mesoscale convective systems over eastern China: convection-permitting climate model simulation and observation
Yun et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-021-05994-4

Cryosphere & climate change

Roughness of ice shelves is correlated with basal melt rates
Watkins et al.
10.1002/essoar.10507300.1

(provisional link) Stability of long-term satellite and reanalysis products to monitor snow cover trends

Influence of permafrost type and site history on losses of permafrost carbon after thaw
Manies et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506797.1

Vanishing glaciers at southeast Tibetan Plateau have not offset the declining runoff at Yarlung Zangbo
Wang et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094651

Interrogating glacier mass balance response to climatic change since the Little Ice Age: reconstructions for the Jotunheimen region, southern Norway
Hiemstra et al. Boreas
Open Access pdf 10.1111/bor.12562

Sea level & climate change

Evaluation of the local sea-level budget at tide gauges since 1958
Wang et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094502

Using empirical data and modeled scenarios of Everglades restoration to understand changes in coastal vulnerability to sea level rise
Dessu et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03231-9

Projected Changes to Cool-Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast
Pringle et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2020ef001940

Paleoclimate

Differences between Present-day and Cretaceous hydrological cycle responses to rising CO2 concentration
Higuchi et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094341

Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model
Quiquet et al. Climate of the Past
Open Access 10.5194/cp-2021-39

Response of Antarctic soil fauna to climate-driven changes since the Last Glacial Maximum
Franco et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15940

Biology & climate change

Biological invasions and climate change amplify each other’s effects on dryland degradation
Ravi et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15919

(provisional link) Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience

Effects of global warming on Mediterranean coral forests
Chimienti et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-00162-4

Trends in climatically driven extreme growth reductions of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe
Treml et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15922

Hotter droughts alter resource allocation to chemical defenses in piñon pine
Trowbridge et al. Oecologia
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-021-05058-8

(provisional link) Earlier snow melt and reduced summer precipitation alter floral traits important to pollination
10.1111/gcb.15908

Environmental vulnerability of the global ocean epipelagic plankton community interactome
Chaffron et al. Science Advances
Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.abg1921

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Emergent constraints on tropical atmospheric aridity—carbon feedbacks and the future of carbon sequestration
Barkhordarian et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2ce8

(provisional link) Diffuse solar radiation and canopy photosynthesis in a changing environment
10.1177/0309133311434244

(provisional link) Peat macropore networks – new insights into episodic and hotspot methane emission

(provisional link) Marine CO2 system variability along the Inside Passage of the Pacific Northwest coast of North America determined from an Alaskan ferry

(provisional link) Age and Chemistry of Dissolved Organic Carbon Reveal Enhanced Leaching of Ancient Labile Carbon at the Permafrost Thaw Zone
10.1038/srep45811

(provisional link) Ephemeral forest regeneration limits carbon sequestration potential in the brazilian atlantic forest
10.1111/gcb.15944

(provisional link) Meridional and Cross-Shelf Variability of N2O and CH4 in the Eastern-South Atlantic
10.1029/2020JC016878

Influence of permafrost type and site history on losses of permafrost carbon after thaw
Manies et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506797.1

(provisional link) Quantification of blue carbon pathways contributing to negative feedback on climate change following glacier retreat in West Antarctic fjords
10.1111/gcb.15898

Contribution of above ground litterfall and roots to the soil CO2 efflux of two sub-tropical Cunninghamia lanceolata and Castanopsis carlesii forests
Li et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108671

(provisional link) Interannual climate variability mediates changes in carbon and nitrogen pools caused by annual grass invasion in a semiarid shrubland
10.1111/gcb.15921

Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic methane oxidation versus methanogenesis in paddy soil: Implications for the CH4 balance under global warming
Fan et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15935

Stream Transport and Substrate Controls on Nitrous Oxide Yields From Hyporheic Zone Denitrification
Winnick AGU Advances
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021av000517

Spatiotemporal Methane Emission From Global Reservoirs
Johnson et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2021jg006305

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Higher sensitivity of planted forests’ productivity than natural forests to droughts in China
Zhong et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2021jg006306

Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020
Le Noë et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26398-2

Decarbonization

Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions
DeAngelo et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26356-y

Combined solar power and storage as cost-competitive and grid-compatible supply for China’s future carbon-neutral electricity system
Lu et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2103471118

Decarbonizing the energy supply one pandemic at a time
Russo et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112644

National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets
Cherp et al. Nature Energy
10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0

Break-even price and carbon emissions of carinata-based sustainable aviation fuel production in the Southeastern United States
Alam et al. GCB Bioenergy
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcbb.12888

Geoengineering climate

Insensitivity of mass loss of Icelandic Vatnajökull ice cap to solar geoengineering
Yue et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-318

Black carbon

(provisional link) Long-term variation and source apportionment of black carbon at Mt. Waliguan, China
10.1029/2021JD035273

Aerosols

(provisional link) Direct radiative effects of airborne microplastics
10.1038/s41586-021-03864-x

Climate change communications & cognition

(provisional link) Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later

(provisional link) Early warnings and emerging accountability: Total’s responses to global warming, 1971–2021
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102386

(provisional link) Am I responsible? The joint effect of individual responsibility attributions and descriptive normative climate messages on climate mitigation intentions
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.11.001

The Greta effect: Visualising climate protest in UK media and the Getty images collections
Hayes & O'Neill Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102392

Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
Lynas et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966

U.S. Catholic bishops’ silence and denialism on climate change
Danielsen et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac25ba

Capacity building for climate transparency: neutral ‘means of implementation’ or generating political effects?
Scappini Quality & Quantity
Open Access 10.1007/s11135-005-3267-7

How local communities attribute livelihood vulnerabilities to climate change and other causes: a case study in North Vanuatu
Nef et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03221-x

Climate change reception studies in anthropology
Wit & Haines WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.742

The drivers of individual climate actions in Europe
Reichl et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102390

Influencing climate change attitudes in the United States: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Rode et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology
Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101623

Understanding behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change: a meta-analysis
Gunn et al. Oikos
Open Access pdf 10.1111/oik.08366

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Future Summer Drying in the U.S. Corn Belt and the Role of Midlatitude Storm Tracks
Ting et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-20-1004.1

Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future
Ceglar et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2d68

Peat management by local communities can reduce emissions
Lupascu Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01197-1

Climate change mitigation on tropical peatlands: A triple burden for smallholder farmers in Indonesia
Merten et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102388

Climate change impacts on nomadic herders' livelihoods and pastureland ecosystems: a case study from Northeast Mongolia
Tugjamba et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01829-4

Sensitivity of soybean planting date to wet season onset in Mato Grosso, Brazil, and implications under climate change
Zhang et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03223-9

Land use leverage points to reduce GHG emissions in U.S. agricultural supply chains
Pelton et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2775

Probabilistic Assessment of Extreme Heat Stress on Indian Wheat Yields under Climate Change
Zachariah et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094702

Potential genotype-based climate change adaptation strategies for sustaining cotton production in the Texas High Plains: A simulation study
Kothari et al. Field Crops Research
10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108261

Hydrology & climate change

(provisional link) Extreme Rainfall Events in the Northeastern United States Become More Frequent with Rising Temperatures, but Their Intensity Distribution Remains Stable
10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0938.1

Mechanisms of European Summer Drying under Climate Change
Tuel & Eltahir Alizadeh Journal of Climate
Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0968.1

Climate change economics

(provisional link) The economic and environment benefits from international co-ordination on carbon pricing: a review of economic modelling studies

Barriers to internal carbon pricing in German companies
Riedel et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112654

Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption
Rode et al. Nature
10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8

Climate change mitigation public policy research

The crucial role of complementarity, transparency and adaptability for designing energy policies for sustainable development
Pahle et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112662

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Embedded researchers as transdisciplinary boundary spanners strengthening urban climate resilience
Taylor et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.002

(provisional link) Affective adaptation = effective transformation? Shifting the politics of climate change adaptation and transformation from the status quo
10.1002/(ISSN)1757-7799

(provisional link) Challenges and opportunities for universities in building adaptive capacities for sustainability: lessons from Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean

Towards local-parallel scenarios for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Cradock-Henry et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100372

A Markov Decision Process Approach for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Infrastructure Resilience Upgrades
Zhu & Leibowicz Leibowicz Risk Analysis
10.1111/risa.13838

Advancing climate resilient development pathways since the IPCC’s fifth assessment report
Werners et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.017

Climate change impacts on human health

(provisional link) Impact of future climate change on malaria in West Africa
10.1007/s00704-021-03807-6

Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050
Shao et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.014

Linking climate and infectious disease trends in the Northern/Arctic Region
Ma et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-00167-z

Dengue transmission risk in a changing climate: Bangladesh is likely to experience a longer dengue fever season in the future
Paul et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2b60

The rise of West Nile Virus in Southern and Southeastern Europe: A spatial–temporal analysis investigating the combined effects of climate, land use and economic changes
Watts et al. One Health
Open Access 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100315

Climate change impacts on human culture Other

Influences of climate fluctuations on northeastern North America’s burned areas largely outweigh those of European settlement since AD 1850
Danneyrolles et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2ce7

Individualism, Structuralism, and Climate Change
Brownstein et al. Environmental Communication
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2021.1982745

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

(provisional link) Looking to the (far) future of climate projection
10.1111/gcb.15936

(provisional link) A framework for incorporating ecology into Earth System Models is urgently needed
10.1111/gcb.15915

Climate change research and the search for solutions: rethinking interdisciplinarity
Schipper et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03237-3

(provisional link) The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future
10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6

 


Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does "(provisional link)" mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many "provisional links" will end up being corrected as part of this process. 

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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