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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40 2022

Posted on 6 October 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Experts agree: Pay attention and drive

In a commentary for AGU's journal Earth's Future, Wynes et al. call attention to the durability of climate change as humankind's chief environmental threat among risks “which could put us on a path toward irreversible or catastrophic outcomes that manifest after the 10-year timespan," this belief shown as common between informed experts in the scienftific  and business communities. In particular and as its title implies, refusal or inability to deal with climate change features large in this piece, Climate Action Failure Highlighted as Leading Global Risk by Both Scientists and Business Leaders. Climate change is the root cause of our risk but this diverse sampling agrees that the proximate cause of an acutual disaster will be failure to see climate change as a potential harm and then avoid it. 

With a serendipitous appearance in Environmental Politics, Rowan's Extreme weather and climate policy won't comfort survey respondents from Wynes et al. From the abstract:

Existing studies show that weather shocks have negative economic impacts and increase public awareness of climate change. These findings help identify the impacts of climate change on economic and social systems, and provide reasons for governments to adopt climate policy reforms. However, questions remain about the overall link between local extreme weather shocks and government climate policy. I investigate the effect of temperature shocks and natural disasters on a range of national, international, and subnational climate policies in samples spanning 1990–2018. I find that neither temperature shocks nor natural disasters generate climate mitigation reforms. Given that climate policy is currently insufficient to manage climate change and climate impacts are expected to increase this century, these findings suggest that future climate shocks are unlikely to catalyze meaningful climate action.

From that perspective, it appears nobody is at the wheel. 

Other notables:

Regional Geoengineering Using Tiny Glass Bubbles Would Accelerate the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice "Upon further examination," another appealingly simple idea appears to fall apart. This is the process of progress— one of these days we might come up with something that works. Meanwhile it's good to avoid misplaced confidence.

Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?  Cummins, Stephenson & Stott arrive at "no," but just as well to walk this path. 

“How dare you?”—The normative challenge posed by Fridays for Future  Does Fridays for the Future "work?" We still don't know as a quantitative matter, but (drawing on a substantial literature) Spaiser, Nisbett & Stefan identify a myriad of reasons why it should.

The Dirty Truth About Utility Climate Pledges Utiities make large promises, short deliveries. Intuitively not a surprise, but somebody has to measure this record of failure or we won't know exactly how to improve. From this week's gov/ngo section.  

All of the above open access and free to read, as are many more articles below. 

150 articles in 47 journals by 817 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A decomposition of the atmospheric and surface contributions to the outgoing longwave radiation
Huang & Huang Huang, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510857.1

Causes for asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature responding to global warming
Doan et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100029

Origin of the Warm Arctic–Cold North American Pattern on the Intraseasonal Time Scale
Lin et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jas-d-22-0013.1

Tropical surface temperature response to vegetation cover changes and the role of drylands
Feldman et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16455

Tropospheric expansion under global warming reduces tropical lower stratospheric ozone
Match & Gerber, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099463

Warming hotspots induced by more eddies
Yang, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01488-1

Observations of climate change, effects

A detection of the sea level fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet melt
Coulson et al., Science, 10.1126/science.abo0926

Accelerated transition between dry and wet periods in a warming climate
Chen & Wang, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099766

Amplification of the temperature seasonality in the Mediterranean region under anthropogenic climate change
Feng et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099658

Climate change drives rapid decadal acidification in the Arctic Ocean from 1994 to 2020
Qi et al., Science, 10.1126/science.abo0383

Elevation gradient dependence of extreme climate indices on Yunnan Plateau, China
Yan et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7578

Increase in intraseasonal rainfall driven by the Arabian Sea warming in recent decades
Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100536

Increasingly dry/wet abrupt alternation events in a warmer world: Observed evidence from China during 1980–2019
Qiao et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7598

Lengthening dry spells intensify summer heatwaves
He et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099647

Observed Changes in Daily Precipitation Intensity in the United States
Harp & Horton Horton Horton, [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10510713.1

Ocean heat uptake efficiency increase since 1970
Cael, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1002/essoar.10511803.1

Recent enhancement and prolonged occurrence of MJO over the Indian Ocean and their impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Sasikumar et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06230-3

Record summers in Europe: Variations in drought and heavy precipitation during 1901–2018
Hänsel et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7587

Record-breaking flood over the Yangtze River in early summer 2020: role of the north Indian Ocean and north tropical Atlantic SST
Yin et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04217-y

Submarine melting of glaciers in Greenland amplified by atmospheric warming
Slater & Straneo, Nature Geoscience, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-022-01035-9

What's the temperature tomorrow? Increasing trends in extreme volatility of daily maximum temperature in Central and Eastern United States (1950–2019)
Ombadi & Risser, Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100515

Winter anticyclone activities in Siberia and their relationship to the regional temperature anomaly
Lu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7590

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Characterizing U.S. drought over the past 20 years using the U.S. drought monitor
Leeper et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7653

Climate signal strength in tree-ring width of spruce growing in the Solovetsky Islands (Russia)
Dolgova et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126012

Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?
Cummins et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06242-z

Development of a climate-informed analog downscaling method for Asian regions
Kim et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7582

High resolution thermal remote sensing and the limits of species’ tolerance
Ednie & Kerr , PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13911

Measuring and Attributing Sedimentary and Geomorphic Responses to Modern Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities
East et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002983

Pyleoclim: Paleoclimate Timeseries Analysis and Visualization with Python
Khider et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511883.1

Remotely sensing river greenhouse gas exchange velocity using the SWOT satellite
Brinkerhoff et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007419

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A North Atlantic Warming Hole Without Ocean Circulation
He et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100420

A Realistic Projection of Climate Change in the Upper Atmosphere Into the 21st Century
Cnossen, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100693

Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections
Huang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33495-3

Future climate projections for Eastern Canada
Wang et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06251-y

High-resolution modelling of climatic hazards relevant for Canada’s northern transportation sector
Teufel & Sushama, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06265-6

Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world
Beech et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01478-3

Modeling cloud properties over the 79N Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, NE Greenland) for an intense summer melt period in 2019
Andernach et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4374

More frequent, intense and extensive rainfall events in a strongly warming Arctic
Dou et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2021ef002378

Projection of the Indian Summer Monsoon onset using a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model
Khandare et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04222-1

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for projections of winter mean precipitation in Europe
McKenna & Maycock Maycock Maycock Maycock, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511064.2

Trends in synoptic heat events in four Minnesota urban areas through the 21st century
Birkel et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101307

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Bias correction of daily precipitation for ungauged locations using geostatistical approaches: A case study for the CORDEX-Africa ensemble
Lorenz et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7649

Bias-adjustment of high-resolution temperature CORDEX data over the Carpathian region: Expected changes including the number of summer and frost days
Torma & Kis, International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7654

Effects of Increasing the Category Resolution of the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in a Coupled Climate Model on Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Mean State
Smith et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019044

En-GARD: A Statistical Downscaling Framework to Produce and Test Large Ensembles of Climate Projections
Gutmann et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-21-0142.1

Evaluation of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling in CMIP Earth System Models With the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) Software System
Fu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018965

Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Varney et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022

How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity?
Undorf et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03435-7

How reliable are Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models in representing the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone?
Singh et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7646

Impact of air–sea coupling on the simulation of Indian summer monsoon using a high-resolution Regional Earth System Model over CORDEX-SA
Mishra et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06249-6

Inconsistent Frequency Trends Between Hourly and Daily Precipitation During Warm Season in Mainland of China
Lei et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100277

More intense daily precipitation in CORDEX-SEA regional climate models than their forcing global climate models over Southeast Asia
Nguyen et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7619

Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Carter et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-86

Cryosphere & climate change

Attributing near-surface atmospheric trends in the Fram Strait region to regional sea ice conditions
Schmitt & Lüpkes, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-185

Greenland Interannual Ice Mass Variations Detected by GRACE Time-Variable Gravity
Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100551

Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost
Ehlers et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104197

Submarine melting of glaciers in Greenland amplified by atmospheric warming
Slater & Straneo, Nature Geoscience, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-022-01035-9

Sea level & climate change

A detection of the sea level fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet melt
Coulson et al., Science, 10.1126/science.abo0926

Calibrated mass loss predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet
Aschwanden & Brinkerhoff, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099058

Flood Risk to Hospitals on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts From Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise
Tarabochia-Gast et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000651

Ice sheet and climate processes driving the uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise: Findings from a structured expert judgement approach.
Bamber et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002772

Paleoclimate

Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium
Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7595

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Acute, diel, and annual temperature variability and the thermal biology of ectotherms
Kefford et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16453

Anthropogenic habitat modification alters calling phenology of frogs
Liu et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16367

Behaviour dominates impacts
Armarego-Marriott, Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01495-2

Biodiversity patterns diverge along geographic temperature gradients
Loewen et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16457

Breaking the Ecosystem Balance Over the Tibetan Plateau
Huang et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002890

Climate change impacts the vertical structure of marine ecosystem thermal ranges
Santana-Falcón & Séférian, Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01476-5

Climate-induced habitat suitability changes intensify fishing impacts on the life history of large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea)
Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9342

Epigenetic plasticity enables copepods to cope with ocean acidification
Lee et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01477-4

Global decline of pelagic fauna in a warmer ocean
Ariza et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01479-2

Impact of climate change on parasite infection of an important pollinator depends on host genotypes
Manlik et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16460

Large old trees increase growth under shifting climatic constraints: aligning tree longevity and individual growth dynamics in primary mountain spruce forests
Begovi? et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16461

Lengthening height-growth duration in Smith fir as onset becomes more synchronous across elevations under climate warming scenarios
Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109193

Low soil moisture suppresses the thermal compensatory response of microbial respiration
Li et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16448

Microbially enhanced methane uptake under warming enlarges ecosystem carbon sink in a Tibetan alpine grassland
Qi et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16444

Ocean acidification drives global reshuffling of ecological communities
Nagelkerken & Connell, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16410

Optimality principles explaining divergent responses of alpine vegetation to environmental change
Zhu et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16459

Possible negative effects of earlier thaw onset and longer thaw duration on vegetation greenness over the Tibetan Plateau
Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109192

Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks, but with altered composition
Rodman et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.13999

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

5300-year-old soil carbon is less primed than young soil organic matter
Su et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16463

Circum-Arctic release of terrestrial carbon varies between regions and sources
Martens et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33541-0

Climate-sensitive tree height-diameter models for mixed forests in Northeastern China
Tian et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109182

Constraining the carbon budget of peat ecosystems: Application of stoichiometry and enthalpy balances
Worrall et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007003

Determination of methane emissions from biogas plants, using different quantification methods
Hrad et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109179

Economic estimation of Bitcoin mining’s climate damages demonstrates closer resemblance to digital crude than digital gold
Jones et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-18686-8

Evaluation of biological carbon pump metrics in the subtropical Gulf of Aqaba, northern Red Sea
Kienast & Torfstein, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007452

Future Hurricanes will Increase Palm Abundance and Decrease Aboveground Biomass in a Tropical Forest
Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100090

Glacial Ice Melting Stimulates Heterotrophic Prokaryotes Production on the Getz Ice Shelf in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica
Min et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2021gl097627

Indirect nitrous oxide emission factors of fluvial networks can be predicted by dissolved organic carbon and nitrate from local to global scales
Wang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16458

Inefficient and unlit natural gas flares both emit large quantities of methane
Plant et al., Science, 10.1126/science.abq0385

Inorganic Carbon Transport and Dynamics in the Florida Straits
Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018405

Reconciling the total carbon budget for boreal forest wildfire emissions using airborne observations
Hayden et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-245

Seasonal Variability of Phytoplankton Biomass Revealed by Satellite and BGC-Argo Data in the Central Tropical Indian Ocean
Hu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2021jc018227

Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil
Sulman et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10508382.2

Soil organic matter molecular composition with long-term detrital alterations is controlled by site-specific forest properties
Castañeda-Gómez et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16456

Source-Labeled Anthropogenic Carbon Reveals a Large Shift of Preindustrial Carbon From the Ocean to the Atmosphere
Holzer & DeVries, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007405

Species Traits and Geomorphic Setting as Drivers of Global Soil Carbon Stocks in Seagrass Meadows
Kennedy et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007481

Tree Diversity, Structure and Functional Trait Identity Promote Stand Biomass Along Elevational Gradients in Subtropical Forests of Southern China
Wu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006950

Urban land conversion reduces soil organic carbon density under impervious surfaces
Ding et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007293

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation
Portmann et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33279-9

Mapping public appraisals of carbon dioxide removal
Bellamy, Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102593

Decarbonization

A green and sustainable strategy toward lithium resources recycling from spent batteries
Xu et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abq7948

Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen
Yang et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01114-6

Cement substitution with secondary materials can reduce annual global CO2 emissions by up to 1.3 gigatons
Shah et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33289-7

Determination of methane emissions from biogas plants, using different quantification methods
Hrad et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109179

Effects of digital economy on carbon emission reduction: New evidence from China
Yi et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113271

Energy transition and renewable energies: Challenges for Peru
Campodónico & Carrera, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113261

Influence of an Anti-Reflective Coating (ARC) with a pyramidal texture on a Building Integrated low-Concentration Photovoltaic (BICPV) system
Bernal-del Río & Osorio-Gómez, Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.09.016

Pathways towards 90% decarbonization of aviation by 2050
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01486-3

Geoengineering climate

Determining our climate policy future: expert opinions about negative emissions and solar radiation management pathways
Sovacool et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10030-9

Regional Geoengineering Using Tiny Glass Bubbles Would Accelerate the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice
Webster & Warren, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002815

Aerosols

Reassessing the relative role of anthropogenic aerosols and natural decadal variability in driving the mid-twentieth century global “cooling”: a focus on the latitudinal gradient of tropospheric temperature
Diao & Xu, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06235-y

Climate change communications & cognition

A physical concept in the press: the case of the jet stream
Fonseca et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-2021-34

Environmental and climate impact perceptions in university students: Sustainability motivations and perceptions correspond with lower red meat intake
Slotnick et al., Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, 10.1016/j.jand.2022.09.015

Making Climate Change Tangible in Augmented Reality Media: Hello My Black Balloon
Heemsbergen et al., Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2117717

Mapping public appraisals of carbon dioxide removal
Bellamy, Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102593

“How dare you?”—The normative challenge posed by Fridays for Future
Spaiser et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000053

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A “vegetarian curry stew” or just a “curry stew”? - The effect of neutral labeling of vegetarian dishes on food choice among meat-reducers and non-reducers
Hielkema & Lund, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101877

Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America
Zhang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33265-1

Farmer adoption and intensity of use of extreme weather adaptation and mitigation strategies: evidence from a sample of Missouri farmers
Skevas et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03439-3

On the (ir)relevance of heatwaves in climate change impacts on European agriculture
Fabri et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03438-4

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A component-based approximation for trend detection of intense rainfall in the Spanish Mediterranean coast
Miró et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100513

Causes of missing snowmelt following drought
Lapides et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl100505

Contrasting Climatic Trends of Atmospheric River Occurrences over East Asia
Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099646

Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
Zhou et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks over South Asia under a Warmer Climate
Ullah et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002830

Climate change economics

A review of the future impact of climate change in Chile: economic output and other outcomes
Madeira, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10034-5

Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Dietz & Koninx, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33406-6

Policies for climate finance: Status and research needs
Steffen & Michaelowa , PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000083

Prosets: a new financing instrument to deliver a durable net zero transition
Mitchell-Larson & Allen, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03423-x

Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets
Keppler et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113273

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Advising national climate policy makers: A longitudinal analysis of the UK Climate Change Committee
Dudley et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102589

Analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation performance in UK urban areas
Butt et al., Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2120418

Carbon Footprint Differentiation in the Japanese Residential Sector Due To Income-Driven Divergences in Consumption and Time Allocation
Yin et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002954

Efforts to tax carbon in Washington State
Karceski, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000076

Extreme weather and climate policy
Rowan, Environmental Politics, Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2127478

Integration of Short-Lived Climate Pollutant and air pollutant mitigation in nationally determined contributions
Malley et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2125928

Market supervision, innovation offsets and energy efficiency: Evidence from environmental pollution liability insurance in China
Lyu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113267

Novel quota and tax regime design approach for green transition: A case study on Switzerland's aviation industry
Keshavarzzadeh et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113263

Scientists and climate governance: A view from the South
Ibarra et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.09.012

The weather affects air conditioner purchases to fill the energy efficiency gap
He et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33531-2

US cities increasingly integrate justice into climate planning and create policy tools for climate justice
Diezmartínez & Short Gianotti , Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33392-9

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies
Carlino et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002767

Working in a warming world: Translating thermal physiology to policy-relevant information
Flouris et al., Temperature, 10.1080/23328940.2022.2086414

Climate change impacts on human health

Sentiment Analysis of Weather-Related Tweets from Cities within Hot Climates
Dzyuban et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0159.1

Climate change impacts on human culture

Development of summer skiing days in Austrian glacier ski areas in the first two decades of the twenty-first century
Mayer & Abegg, International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02371-6

Extreme rainfall risk and climate change impact assessment for Edinburgh World Heritage sites
O'Neill et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100514

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Disagreeing well in an unparadigmatic field: a response to Bodin (2021)
Acosta García et al., Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-022-01228-6

East Asian summer monsoon enhanced by COVID-19
He et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06247-8

Revisiting Cloud Radiative Heating and the Southern Annular Mode
Wall et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100463

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate Action Failure Highlighted as Leading Global Risk by Both Scientists and Business Leaders
Wynes et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002857

Responding to warming in polar oceans
Peck, Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16468


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Minimizing conservation impacts of net zero energy 1 systems in the western United States, Wu et al., SSRN

The scale and pace of energy infrastructure development required to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is unprecedented, yet our understanding of how to minimize its potential impacts on biodiversity and natural resources is inadequate. Using high-resolution energy and land-use modeling, the authors developed spatially-explicit scenarios for reaching an economy-wide net-zero GHG target in the western United States by 2050. They found that among net zero policy cases that vary the rate of transportation and building electrification and use of fossil fuels, nuclear generation, and biomass, the "High Electrification'' case, which uses electricity generation the most efficiently, had the lowest total land and ocean area requirements (84,000-105,000 km2 vs. 88,100-158,000 km2 across all other cases). Different levels of natural resource protections were applied to determine their effect on siting, environmental and social impacts, and energy costs. Meeting the net-zero target with stronger environmental protections did not significantly alter the share of different energy generation technologies, and only increased system costs by 3%. Yet, failure to avoid development in areas with high conservation value is likely to result in substantial negative environmental and land use impacts.

Paying for Electricity in California: How Residential Rate Design Impacts Equity and Electrification, Borenstein et al., Energy Institute at Haas, University of California and Next 10

California has ambitious goals to fight climate change while also ensuring that energy is affordable for all of its residents. Unfortunately, the current structure of residential electricity prices in the state makes achieving these goals much harder. Electric utility rates feature high volumetric (i.e., per kilowatt-hour) prices that are designed to recover many costs beyond the direct incremental cost of providing electricity. These high volumetric prices make electrification less attractive to consumers while simultaneously distributing the burden of paying for electricity in a way that is quite regressive.

Pay For Climate Performance, As You Sow

Linking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets to compensation is one important means by which CEOs can be incentivized to achieve timely and systematic progress on climate. The report is a first step in assessing how effectively companies are currently linking GHG emissions reduction incentives to Chief Executive Officer pay. The percentage of companies integrating environmental, social, and governance goals in compensation is rising rapidly as investors push for climate progress. As more companies begin to link GHG emissions reduction to compensation, it is important that it be done in the most transparent and impactful way.

Oil companies in disguise: the impact of mandatory reporting of indirect emissions on car companies' valuation, Bonaccorsi et al., Transport & Environment

Asset managers are faced with the double challenge of decarbonizing their portfolios and mainstreaming sustainability frameworks, such as the environment, social, and corporate governance rating, ESG. But do they have the right tools? In 2023, the EU will introduce a requirement that financial institutions disclose their scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions). The new requirement will hit asset managers with exposure to carmakers hard. Unlike manufacturers of furniture or mobile phones, the vast majority (98%) of a car company’s emissions come under scope 3 – primarily the use of cars. The authors find that not only are carmakers’ official emissions set to explode, but carmakers are significantly underreporting their Scope 3 emissions in what could represent another scandal for the industry.

Unleashing the Frequency: MultiMegawatt Demonstration of 100% Renewable Power Systems with Decentralized Communication-Less Control Scheme, Koralewicz et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Power systems, which range in size from small microgrids to island systems to large regional grids, are typically managed by a central controller that requires complex communication methods and can be unreliable and pose cyber security risks in certain applications, especially when controlling a larger number of nodes. The authors propose an inherently robust, scalable method of integration using multiple energy storage systems and distributed energy resources, which does not require any means of dedicated communication. This method moves beyond the paradigm of controlling grid frequency at a fixed value (e.g., 60 Hz), instead allowing the frequency to fluctuate within certain limits, e.g., 59.6–60.4 Hz. With a greater operating range, the frequency can carry necessary information from energy storage systems to highly variable distributed energy resources like photovoltaics, wind, and hydro.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Information for Decision Making. A Framework Going Forward, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Climate change, driven by increases in human-produced greenhouse gases and particles (collectively referred to as GHGs), is the most serious environmental issue facing society. The need to reduce GHGs has become urgent as heat waves, heavy rain events, and other impacts of climate change have become more frequent and severe. Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, more than 136 countries, accounting for about 80% of total global GHG emissions, have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. A growing number of cities, regional governments, and industries have also made pledges to reduce emissions. Providing decision-makers with useful, accurate, and trusted GHG emissions information is a crucial part of this effort.

Coal Community Transition Policy in Action, Wang et al., Rocky Mountain Institute

Across the United States, the transition from coal to a clean energy economy is accelerating. However, without thoughtful planning and robust resources, this transition will harm workers who depend on coal for their livelihoods, as well as the communities where they live and work. These people and places face serious risks in the shift to clean energy, including loss of well-paying jobs with good benefits, loss of health insurance, reduced property values, gaps in local tax revenues, unfunded liabilities for environmental cleanup, and uncertainty around future community economic development. Governments are beginning to take notice of this risk and opportunity. Over the past few years, seven states passed or considered bills designed to support coal workers and communities facing economic transition. And federal policymakers recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which alongside the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021, represents the largest set of investments and resources available to support energy communities in history. The authors present a recovery and revitalization framework, based on interviews with stakeholders as well as previous stakeholder-led platforms and principles for a fair transition, which consists of three steps: Relief for coal workers and communities to alleviate losses of local revenue and jobs that occur immediately following coal closure Reclamation of remaining coal sites to prevent prolonged pollution risks and promote short- and medium-term job creation and local economic activity Reinvestment in coal communities to promote long-term economic resilience and diversification

The Dirty Truth About Utility Climate Pledges, Bottorff et al., Sierra Club

The authors score utilities based on their plans to retire coal, not build new gas plants, and build clean energy by 2030. Utilities were graded on a scale of 0 to 100, earning points by committing to retire coal and add clean energy and losing points by adding new gas. The authors evaluated integrated resource plans (IRPs) and major announcements from the 50 dirtiest parent companies and 77 operating companies. These include investor-owned utilities, public utilities (such as the Tennessee Valley Authority), generation and transmission co-ops, and large municipal utilities. These companies provide roughly 40 percent of the total US generation. THe author's analysis found that over the last year and a half, utilities have made little progress. Most are still not on the path to achieving 80 percent clean electricity by 2030. Of the 77 utilities that were evaluated, nearly half of them (44 percent) made no progress or received a lower score than in an earlier report. Overall, the aggregate score for all utilities in our analysis was 21.1, up just 4 points from the previous aggregate score of 17.2. This disappointing inaction occurred despite a tumultuous 18 months of grid reliability crises, blackouts, energy price spikes, and extreme weather events; many of these trace their roots in large part to utilities’ stubborn reliance on expensive and unreliable fossil fuels

Communication of life cycle assessment results: life cycle key performance indicators, Helena Nydahl, Umea University

The global warming that we are on track for will result in a severe loss of natural capital leading to significant losses in economic capital when urban infrastructure is destroyed, agricultural productivity declines and poverty spread among other disasters. Climate change due to emissions does not only affect the polluter, the hazardous effects become evident on a global level. An essential tool to enable decision?making with concern for the welfare of the global commons is life cycle assessment (LCA). LCA compile and evaluate the inputs, outputs, and potential environmental impacts of a product system throughout its life cycle. The reviewed literature frames a gap regarding the interpretation of LCA results and summarizes guidelines that address a wide range of stakeholders to enable informed decision-making with regard to the welfare of the global commons. Some studies even argue that an apparent weakness of LCA-result communication is the understanding of what the results mean for the economic key performance indicators (KPIs) of the stakeholder. Thus, the author contributes to the development of guidelines for the interpretation of LCA results by introducing an approach for communicating LCA results that is compatible with the economically driven nature of stakeholders.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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