Arguments
Arctic settles into new phase – warmer, greener, and less ice
Posted on 19 December 2011 by John Hartz
The following is a reprint of a news release posted by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Dec 1, 2011.
An international team of scientists who monitor the rapid changes in the Earth’s northern polar region say that the Arctic is entering a new state – one with warmer air and water temperatures, less summer sea ice and snow cover, and a changed ocean chemistry. This shift is also causing changes in the in the region’s life, both on land and in the sea, including less habitat for polar bears and walruses but increased access to feeding areas for whales.
Changes to the Arctic are chronicled annually in the Arctic Report Card, which was released today. The report is prepared by an international team of scientists from 14 different countries.
"This report, by a team of 121 scientists from around the globe, concludes that the Arctic region continues to warm, with less sea ice and greater green vegetation," said Monica Medina, NOAA principal deputy under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere. "With a greener and warmer Arctic, more development is likely. Reports like this one help us to prepare for increasing demands on Arctic resources so that better decisions can be made about how to manage and protect these more valuable and increasingly available resources."
Among the 2011 highlights are:
- Atmosphere: In 2011, the average annual near-surface air temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean were approximately 2.5° F (1.5° C) greater than the 1981-2010 baseline period.
- Sea ice: Minimum Arctic sea ice area in September 2011 was the second lowest recorded by satellite since 1979.
- Ocean: Arctic Ocean temperature and salinity may be stabilizing after a period of warming and freshening. Acidification of sea water as a result of carbon dioxide absorption has also been documented in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.
- Land: Arctic tundra vegetation continues to increase and is associated with higher air temperatures over most of the Arctic land mass.
In 2006, NOAA’s Climate Program Office introduced the State of the Arctic Report which established a baseline of conditions at the beginning of the 21st century. It is updated annually as the Arctic Report Card to monitor the often-quickly changing conditions in the Arctic. Peer-review of the scientific content of the report card was facilitated by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment (AMAP) Program.
The Report Card tracks the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land, and Greenland. This year, new sections were added, including, greenhouse gases, ozone and ultraviolet radiation, ocean acidification, Arctic Ocean primary productivity, and lake ice. To view the Arctic Report Card, visit http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit www.noaa.gov or join us on Facebook, Twitter, and our other social media channels.
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On the Web:
Arctic Report Card: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard
NOAA’s Arctic Theme Page: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov
NOAA Arctic Research News: http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/Arctic.aspx
aren't the 'big spikes upward and downward' the seasonal variation? And isn't the very-well defined trend down?
On the other hand, at some stage in a continuing death spiral of summer ice, we would expect this pattern to emerge. In the near term limit, winter ice will still form extensively, while the summer ice will shrink to near zero. In the medium term we would then expect the winter ice to gradually shrink in area as the summer water temperatures start to climb in the absence of ice.
Consequently the pattern over the last few years may be this pattern (continuing winter ice, and low or no summer ice) starting to assert itself. It is just too early to say IMO.
That's something we discussed on prior Arctic ice threads - summer minimum extent is dropping like a rock, winter maximum extent less so. That has to translate to a more rapid or an extended melt season. Consistent with the results described by Jeff Masters here.
As Earth's climate has warmed over the past 30 years, the Northern Hemisphere has seen a dramatic drop in the amount of snow cover in spring (April, May, and June.) Spring is coming earlier by an average of three days per decade, and the earlier arrival of spring has significantly reduced the amount of snow on the ground in May. Less snow on the ground means the land surface can heat up more readily, and May temperatures in Arctic have increased significantly over the past 30 years.
Consistent, too, with Arctic amplification and feedback due to the increased area of exposed sea water for more of the year.
BTW, my questions in #2 were rhetorical.
The X-axis is the fraction of the year. It looks like the Arctic Ice amount is affected little by ENSO events, if at all, so Atlantic heat transport and general atmospheric warming would be the largest melters of the Arctic Ice.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2003# discusses of the meteorological effects of ice free arctic.
I recall a study a year or two ago which concluded that if Arctic temperatures/conditions returned to 'normal' the sea ice could recover and therefor there was no 'death spiral'... which never made much sense to me because it should be obvious by now that there isn't going to be any 'return to normal'. That 'normal' is gone. The conditions which allowed it no longer exist.
Note that a limitation of Tietsche is that the presumption is that stable CO2 concentrations have been achieved and equilibria with temps then reached.
We are far, far from those conditions. Tietsche thus remains an academic construct.
I disagree with the title "Arctic settles into new phase" entirely. There is no 'settlement' - yet.
(I have never put a hyperlink in before and after reading in the tips section that if I get it wrong, it will screw up the page, I won't try this time either. The address off my computer is: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/giant-plumes-methane-bubbling-surface-arctic-ocean-163804179.html. I imagine that there is a more academic report somewhere.)
If you have not already done so, you may wish to peruse “As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks” published in the New York Times on This in-depth article portrays in words and in photos what's happening to the permafrost in the Arctic. It is part of the NY Times' Temperature Rising series.
To access “As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks”, click here.
The paper you are referring to is:
"Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability"
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 116, C10027, 10 PP., 2011
doi:10.1029/2011JC007218
The "Key Points" of the paper:
•Our data provide evidence of drastic bottom layer heating over the coastal zone
•We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere
•Recent climate change cannot produce an immediate response in subsea permafrost
The Abstract and additional information about this paper is available here.
Hopefully you can find out a bit more (including some actual data) about this: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/methane-discovery-stokes-new-global-warming-fears-shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-releases-greenhouse-gas-6276278.html
The Independent(UK)article that you have provided a URL for is based on the paper "Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability" which I cited in my post #14.
#18, that's what is sharpening the annual cycle of anomalies.
Catastrophe theory (the mathematics/physics interpretation) is imo a useful concept. E.g. around a threshold average thickness below which, in summertime, ice cover breaks up and melts vastly more quickly. Positive feedback like open sea area, menacing the protective fogs and low stratus over the pack.