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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 53151 to 53200:

  1. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Falkenherz, the NASA study (Willson et al. (2003)) found that a slight trend (0.5%) was beginning to occur in the valleys of the 11-year cycle. As they say, "Although the inferred [total] increase of solar irradiance in 24 years, about 0.1 percent, is not enough to cause notable climate change, the trend would be important if maintained for a century or more." Not also that the study is ten years old. It doesn't take a precise analysis to tell that the most recent valley does not support the proposed trend.
  2. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Peter Lang@18: Read this... ..the ask the question again, "why the concern about arctic Ice retreat?" Decreasing our carbon footprint *will demonstrably* be a good first, if tiny step: all need to do as much as they are capable of doing. The biggest bugaboo will be getting governments in line with that thought, and passing stricter controls on carbon, such as the cap and dividend scheme. If we *all* focus on that, and NOW, there is some chance to avoid a really bad outcome. BAU, and the game's up. It's really quite that simple.
  3. Climate time lag
    Side Note: PETM warming is usually presented in simple form as 6C over 20k years or 5C over 12k years. If we get 3C from 1850 to 2150, we'll be warming at 24 times the latter PETM rate.
  4. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    philipm, I'm affraid Peter@18 may be incensitive to the medical emergency analogy. I know deniers who even in the wake of such emergency (hart attack) ignore any wisdom and seek help with e.g. homeopathy. Peter's complete misunderstanding of uncertainty (or denial of the meaning of uncertainty), as indicated by his bold text, suggests that he may also misunderstand/deny the graph from Holland 2006. So maybe this newer article from the same site debunking the true intentions of those who (like Peter) want to delay the policy response, will open his eyes. But, back to the topic, the article in question makes big claim that fossil fuel companies do go with mainstream science & predict the arctic ice is going to melt soon when it works to their advantage but there is no citation to back up such claim. I'm interested if the proof of such claim exists, or if the claim is unverified rumours, giving deniers an argument that this article is "another conspiracy theory by warmists"...
  5. Climate time lag
    My understanding from hearing paleo talks is that rapid species radiation following a severe event is pretty common. A proposed model is that in normal times, the competition for resources means that most mutations are unsuccessful. After the stress is removed and many niches are depopulated, then all sorts of mutations manage to survive because the pressure for resources is reduced, greatly increasing the scope for speciation.
  6. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Peter @ 18: possibly a troll but let's give you a pointer: if you have a heart attack you will accept any solution that's likely to be effective and worry about cost later. If you have sore toe, you may think twice about extensive surgery. I have a couple of posts on one of my blogs about this year’s massive drop: the minimum was about 3.4sq-km (e.g., this one, with a graph showing the minimum). If you update the graphs here and linked articles with the new minimum it looks pretty dramatic. Anyone remember the 2006 paper that was widely attacked for being “alarmist” for apparently predicting a near ice-free Arctic as early as 2040? We are well ahead of any trend modeled in that paper. Here's the reference for anyone who wants to compare it with the new reality as in this graph showing one of their runs vs. today: Marika M. Holland; Cecilia M. Bitz; Bruno Tremblay. Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters. 2006, 33(23): 217. 25
  7. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    Thanks for your article Caitlyn. The methods of Western science aren't the only ones that have provided humans with valid knowledge. There is a movie, Inuit Knowledge and Climate Change, which can be watched online from its homepage.
  8. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    Thank you for your contribution. I hope that your people can work out a way to the future.
  9. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    bratisa #3, See this paper which Ari had in the research post a couple of weeks ago. It is a study of the French grape harvest commencement. French Grape Harvest
  10. Climate time lag
    thingadota, I also have read the Wiki article on PETM with great interest. However, keep in mind that the "sudden" shift of temperature probably still strechted over thousands of years. Plenty of time for adaptation for flora and fauna. Also, the continents and oceans had totally different positions, resulting in a global mediate climate, which for example allowed for forest vegetation up until the poles. Therefore, I think we cannot assume that a sudden shift in temperature combinded with a rise in CO2 is positive for evolution. Last point, "explosive" evolution seems always triggered when a high stress on life conditions forces lifeforms to adapt; which means, they die and only newborn with genetic mutations fitting to the new conditions have a chance for survival. From all this, I don't think that the PETM events really translate into a positive outlook for our current, soon about 9 billion, human lifeforms for the next centuries.
  11. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    Wonderful post, a fresh and important view on climate change.
  12. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    Don't want to sound cynical, but how much one does want to wager against my predictions that deniers either : - will question the authenticity of this testimony - will say that one shall not focus on the small picture, but rather on the global picture - will try and cheer her by saying there will be beautiful crop fields on Arctic soon (!) I voluntary left aside the "we have time to adapt" meme, since they already used IPCC AR4 (!) for that purpose by saying "models (!) show that sea ice will disappear only by 2070" And I omit of course the fact that they will be blind to the accumulation of testimonies like that around the world. For instance, in France, grape season arrives earlier than before - last year, I've seen call for workers from farmers during August (!!).
  13. Solar cycles cause global warming
    CBDunkerson, the website you linked has no mentioning on which TSI data they used or if this is just a statement out of "common knowledge". However, from another commentary tread here on the article on climate time lag, there was a link to a NASA study, which seems to result in still increasing TSI. http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html I don't know if that really makes a difference, but I am still trying to learn more about TSI. As of now, I am still with the three TSI curves from three different studies as shown in figure 15 of Wang 2005; also, see my comments above.
  14. It's not us
    I wrote to Prof Essenhigh a couple of years back when his paper came out. Not having received a response since, I thought I'd write an open letter to him: Open letter to Prof Essenhigh Brilliant that there's a peer review response now (Skeptical Science's Dikran Marsupial's response)
  15. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    Thank you for sharing your personal perspective. A very much appreciated effort.
  16. Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
    Brilliant article. All the reports, all the data sets and all the measurements are about the real world and these people are the first witnesses of AGW and its extent. Its easy for my freinds and me to argue about whether climate change is real, what is causing it and what can be done but it is all just theory until you hear a real person describe first hand how it threatens a way of life many thousands of years old.
  17. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Peter @18 - The Arctic plays a big role in global weather patterns, for starters. There are a lot of reasons to be concerned about the sea ice death spiral. However, this is not the place to talk about climate solutions. If you want to discuss that subject, I recommend the rebuttal to the myth 'CO2 limits will harm the economy'. We'll be updating that rebuttal with a new blog post next week, coincidentally.
  18. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Why such concern about the Arctic sea ice extent? What is the consequence if the Arctic sea ice retreats? In fact, why so much concern about global warming? What is the consequence(s)? Most importantly, what is appropriate policy response? Uncertainty about the problem (AGW) is a given; uncertainty about the chosen solution is inexcusable. This is to say, we should be confident that our solutions are going to be effective, and the more expensive the solution the more confident we should be.
  19. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    [14] how do you know what Kaufmann is about to tell us, and why not just tell us what he's going to say instead of telling us we'll be surprised? Polyak et.al. 2010 looked at the data from 300 past and ongoing studies before concluding that "the ice loss we see today... appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities". Science Daily news report on the study is here. Kaufmann et.al. published this in 2010, which revised their chart from their 2009 paper, on long term temperatures in the Arctic. Anomaly is relative to the average during 1961 to 1990:
  20. Sea level is not rising
    I get the impression that this explanation is muddled. The 'myth' statement says: "the rate of increase in sea level has not changed since satellites first began measuring it reliably in 1993" (i.e. talking about a real but constant rate of increase with time: saying that the derivative dLevel/dTime is constant). ... but 'what the science says' gives: 'The claim sea level isn’t rising is based on blatantly doctored graphs contradicted by observations' (i.e. suggesting that the 'myth' is not talking about a rate (derivative) but about the absolute level. Personally I didn't read it that way). I don't have much respect for Christopher Monckton, but I'm not sure that his standpoint is being correctly addressed here. And arguably, the 'myth' statement justifies his trick of sloping the graph: it can be seen as a convenient way of illustrating that the line is straight, i.e. no acceleration.
  21. Philippe Chantreau at 09:08 AM on 26 September 2012
    Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Esop @9, I believe that Rutan's comment was about a sea ice decline that had "stabilized." I'm trying to find the original quote.
  22. It's cooling
    @192: "And now, 2012 (to date) is the hottest year on record." Not globally. I think you mean for the USA it's the warmest so far. Globally it will make the top ten, but won't approach the record. That of course doesn't mean that warming has stopped- it hasn't.
  23. It's cooling
    muoncounter@167: And now, 2012 (to date) is the hottest year on record. Science marches ever forward...;=/...and puts another nail in the denialista's insistence that there's "been no warming since 2001." Sigh....
  24. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    Link in citizenschallenge comment @174 is broken (four "/" characters after http: instead of two).
  25. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Robert, why do you say that about Kinnard? And what will be the difference between the methodologies? Do you have a link to a pre-print for Kaufmann?
  26. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    [7] I don't think that Kinnard et al is an accurate representation of the variability in sea ice over the past 1400 years. In fact I think you will all be surprised with the results that the next Kaufmann et al paper will show - ie much greater Arctic climate variability.
  27. New research from last week 38/2012
    Carbon500 & Muzz, no the term acidification is entirely accurate. You just don't seem to understand what it means. Your argument is the same as claiming that one cannot say that they are 'moving North' while in the Southern hemisphere. The current hemisphere (or pH balance) is irrelevant to the the direction of travel (or pH change). If the pH is decreasing then acidification is going on. Claiming otherwise is an attempt to redefine the way the term has always been used. As to ocean acidification being based solely on estimated uptake of anthropogenic carbon... equally false. Direct measurements show the pH change. You really ought to read the 'OA not OK' article DSL linked.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Ocean acidification is now officially Off-topic on this thread.
  28. New research from last week 38/2012
    Muzz: (-snip-).
    Moderator Response: [DB] Ocean acidification, the accepted term by oceanographers for this subject, is off-topic for this thread. See the thread linked by DSL above for those wishing to pursue this further.
  29. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Falkenherz wrote: "But, their [BEST's] statement on solar radiation seems not to be backed up by their data." It is for their temperature data and any solar radiation data I've ever seen other than the Soon & Briggs values of unknown provenance. As stated on the page I linked to, BEST ran analyses of their temperature data results against human carbon emissions, volcanic eruptions, solar variations, et cetera and found various correlations (e.g. volcanic eruptions corresponded to brief cooling spikes in a trend that otherwise matched human CO2 emissions). Offhand I'm not sure what TSI data they used, but... take your pick. There are plenty of TSI studies which show that it has declined slightly over the past several decades. Unless Soon & Briggs specify where they got their radically different 'data' there really isn't much to 'debate' here.
  30. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    That graph constructed by Ramez Naam doesn't show a hockey stick so much as it shows Arctic sea ice has fallen off a cliff.
  31. New research from last week 38/2012
    Muzz, see the excellent SkS series on ocean acidification written by working ocean scientists: OA not OK.
  32. Climate time lag
    Let me just pipe in, this article and the discussion during the last pages is very interesting for me to read, because it nicely summarizes what was buggering me the last weeks during my own personal quest for knowledge (TSI, lag, "heat storage", CO2 levels, PETM, evolution, etc.). I think some findings will always be open to interpretation, but the important thing is that all findings are on the table. Please continue to bring on your findings and your personal interpretation of it!
  33. New research from last week 38/2012
    Is the ocean becoming less basic or more acidic? I would assume if the ph of the ocean is greater than 7 then it is not acidic at all
  34. Solar cycles cause global warming
    CBDunkerson, thanks for the explanation and the link, this clarifies for me the issue with the WT (and, I finally know what "BEST" stands for...). But, their statement on solar radiation seems not to be backed up by their data. I am just starting reading about TSI, so I am very careful to accept figures and conclusions just as a given, yet. Lanfear, the figure 14 is wrong to use I believe, because it is just about faculae. Figure 15 presents three TSI curves from different studies, ranging from an increase between 1 and 2,5 W/m2. The study itself seems to come to a (eyeballed) result of 1 W/m2. I don't know if the 2,5W/m2 can be really called as outdated. As to the physical mechanism, I agree. But maybe the way of calculation of global temperature leaves room for some kind of heat storage (ice-melting, oceans, air streams, etc.) which is not captured by available data. I am not so sure we can confidently say "there is no physical mechanism". Tom Dayton, thanks for the link, this comes very close to what I was thinking about. But I don't get two things there: First, the TSI increase is said to be only "between 0.17 W/m2 (Wang 2005) to 0.23 W/m2 (Krivova 2007) since the Maunder Minimum". Wang 2005 is the same essay I quoted above, where I found this figure 15, where you can also eyeball 1 W/m2 to 2,5 W/m2 from different studies. Second, it is said that "Hansen 2005 estimates the climate lag time is between 25 to 50 years", and then "climate reached radiative equilibrium around the late 80's (give or take a decade)". If I count from 1960 onwards and assume 50 years, there could be a lagged warming until 2010 (which is exactly my point) and not the 80's. I probably will continue discussion over there, I still did not get all points. This whole TSI measuring and relating to glonal temperature is very complicated thing.
  35. It's not bad
    This could be the "acceptance of AGW" tipping point for people in the US: drought-related bacon shortage predicted.
  36. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Heh, now that I look more closely I note that while the 'shape' of the temperature line on the WT graph matches that on the BEST graph... the scales are different. WT shows all values ~2.5 C higher than the BEST graph. The X axis also appears to be off with various peaks being shown in slightly different years between the two graphs. This would seem to confirm skywatcher's earlier suggestion that the WT chart was produced by some method other than direct graphing of the data.
  37. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    Great post. I actually read the WTFUWT response first, so it was rather delightful to come here and read a nice balanced explanation of what Watts was so upset about.
  38. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Falkenherz wrote: "1. The graph in the Washington Times (Source: "University of California-Berkeley Earth-Surface Temperature Project" -> so it IS based on scientific work?)" Yes, that label would mean that the graph was part of a scientific study... if the label itself weren't fiction. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project concluded that past temperature studies were accurate (in contradiction of their initial assumptions) and that the observed warming was almost entirely due to humans. Their findings on solar influence can be summed up with the statement, "Solar variation does not seem to impact the temperature trend." So the question becomes, how did Soon and Briggs get a graph (which appears nowhere in the BEST studies) showing a 'strong correlation' between temperatures and solar variation from a study that concluded there was no correlation between temperatures and solar variation? The likely answer is that they took temperature data from BEST, TSI data from some other source, put them together on a graph, and falsely labelled the result as coming from the BEST study. The 'US daytime high temperature' values shown on the WT graph appear to match up with the 10 year moving average of such on this page from BEST. So far as I know the source of their TSI 'data' remains a mystery.
  39. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    DB, I had always assumed that's how he did it. I recall a study about goats disappearing near the WeatherBell compound . . .
  40. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Falkenherz, when TSI started increasing way back when, the Earth heated and therefore started radiating more on its way to thermal equilibrium between the new, higher level of energy coming in, and the energy going out. It could not reach equilibrium, because the incoming radiation (from TSI) kept increasing. When TSI plateaued around 1960, the Earth still was working toward equilibrium by continuing to increase its outgoing radiation. But because the incoming radiation now was constant, the Earth should have crept closer to equilibrium. That closing of the energy imbalance between energy coming in and energy going out should have been reflected in the in-out gap decreasing. Instead, the in-out gap has continued to increase despite the constancy (or slight decline) of the incoming radiation. So there must be some factor reducing the energy going out. What could that be, do you suppose? See John's post on climate lag.
  41. Record Arctic Sea-ice minimum 2012 declared - it's the Silly Season!
    Panzerboy #28: There are no "graphing tricks" involved... this post pulls together graphs from multiple different sources covering different time frames and even different units of measurement (square miles vs square kilometers). Thus, implying that the 'failure' of these different sources to all use the same starting point for the Y axis is some kind of deception makes no sense. It is standard practice to produce graphs scaled to the range of values observed or likely to be observed. When the NSIDC graphs were first plotted a few decades ago you could as 'easily' have argued that the Y-axis should go up to 20 million square miles (a value not seen for centuries) as down to 0. Now that the ice is in full out collapse and zero is becoming a possibility it is likely that the NSIDC will have to reframe the graph in the upcoming years... but again that is just following the need to show the full range of observed values without massive amounts of white-space above or below the observed range. Indeed, scaling a graph well outside the range of observed values often constitutes a 'trick' because it reduces the perceived degree of change. On a scale going up to 100 million square miles the melt of the past few decades would look like a nearly flat line. Hence the standard practice of scaling graphs to fit the observed values rather than a large range around them.
  42. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    RE #2 No Problem :) RE#3 I think you mean he is referring to his 2011 Prediction not his 2013. The video the Eli rabbet has posted refers to Bastardi's 2011 prediction (and indeed your screenshots show this) As far as I can tell, Bastardi hasn't put out a 2013 prediction although you can find one tweet about it here to which he tried to predict the melt was over this year on Aug 26
  43. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    Joe Bastardi said: "...I think that's where we're gonna be next year. We're gonna recover dramatically here, with the cold that is coming over the next 9 to 12 months. I think next year you're gonna see the latest start to the sea ice melt that we've seen in a long time...." This is the same guy who can't read a map.
  44. New research from last week 38/2012
    Sporehopper: "Is there any research that has recorded any effects associated with human activity and development. Specifically: North Central region of Florida. The massive growth of the Orlando, Fl area..." There's lot of research on this subject area. This one is studying Orlando: The Urban Heat Island and Local Temperature Variations in Orlando, Florida - Yow & Carbone (2006) This paper came up in same search: The Disappearance of Dense Fog in Los Angeles: Another Urban Impact? - LaDochy (2005) Another on rainfall: Effect of urbanization on the diurnal rainfall pattern in Houston - Burian & Shepherd (2005) There are lots and lots of papers on the general topic of weather impacts of urbanization, so you might want to try to search more specific papers yourself for example in Google Scholar.
  45. Record Arctic Sea-ice minimum 2012 declared - it's the Silly Season!
    Dave123 @32 The "It's soot" myth has already been debunked here. mikeh1@7 has shown, that Matt Ridley from WSJ had fallen victim of that myth. Together with your Hansen 2003 meme, it sounded funny. Out of suriosity, I've read Matt's article (normally I don't read WSJ because it's waste of time) to check the source of his opinion, and here it is, his entire attribution:
    Some scientists have noticed that the decline in Arctic sea ice correlates better with the rapid growth of coal consumption in China than it does with global temperature
    A little disapointment here that Matt did not cite verifiable source but rather "Some scientists" limbo. But no surprise here: deniers like him often practice such reporting. So we cannot conclude that Matt Ridley lacks basic skills to understand a simple 5-sentence abstract. But said conclusion can be declared probable. In fact "Some scientists" can also mean Hansen 2003.
  46. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Falkenherz@43 "TSI seemed to go upward already a long time, roughly since 1700, by a total of roughly 2,5 W/m2 since then." Hmmm... where did you get that figure? The study you refer to states: "The cycle-averaged increase in TSI since the Maunder minimum is estimated to be ~1 W/m2." This is also supported by fig 14 (using the eye-chronometer). Regarding your point 2: There still remains the question of where that heat from the slightly positive TSI-trend is hidden? I think the only possible answer here would be the deep sea (>2000m). But then again, it seems to be working on a too slow pace for this case, if one is to believe the validity this claim: "Scientists estimate that it takes one section of the belt 1,000 years to complete one full circuit of the globe." In that case it would mean that we would be seeing the heat energy coming up from the MWA and not the latest TSI positive trend. As Dikran said in 44 (and repeated later, your're writing too fast :-), you need to come up with a more physical explanation, otherwise this is only (IMHO) a exercise in hiding the god.
  47. Dikran Marsupial at 20:04 PM on 25 September 2012
    Solar cycles cause global warming
    @Falkenherz As I said in the second paragraph of my previous post, there needs to be a plausible physical mechanism to explain why there should be a lag. Essentially the laws of physics are the reason why temperature doesn't lag 100 years behind TSI. Correlation is not cuasation, and a good way of avoiding falling into the trap of making an incorrect association is to require a plausible physical mechanism. Given the nature of noisy time series, there will often be an apparent corellation in time series if you adjust enough parameters of the anlysis (e.g. start/end points, lags etc.) purely by random chance. As the old statistical maxim goes "if you torture the data enough, eventually they will always confess".
  48. Solar cycles cause global warming
    Marsupial, my question Nr. 2 was not linked to the graph in the Washington Times. My question Nr. 2 was rather assuming that that graph was wrong and TSI acutally did not increase since 1960, as this seems to be in line with the theory which this website believes to be correct. So, what I meant with a lag is that the increase of TSI until 1960 probably did not directly relate to temperature, but only shows its effect after 1960. The rise of temperature between 1900 and 1960 would then have a cause in rising TSI from before 1900. Long term graphs always seem to show a long term raise of TSI. So basically, the question is, why can we exclude a TSI induced raise of global temperature which lags behind, say, roughly 50 or even 100 years?
  49. Huber and Knutti Quantify Man-Made Global Warming
    As the basis, where all their calculations start, Huber and Knutti (2011) take "the Bern2.5D climate model of intermediate complexity". I read this as: We make evidence from a model (and assume that the model matches observations from the past). On figure 1a, the line for solar radiation is taken from "Radiative forcings from historical reconstructions and the SRES A2 scenario for different forcing agents". It is almost near zero. My point is; if you start with such an assumption, it is not very surprising to come to the result that GHG must be the dominant contributor. So, for me, it seems like this article does a kind of a no-conclusion and just elaborates on said assumption. How come that TSI is assumed so low? I just wanted to point this out here, because I am coming from the "solar-cycles" article, and also from "it's the sun", and I was pointed towards this article here. I frankly do not understand how and why TSI is estimated with such a low increase in radiative forcing.
  50. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
    I seem to remember that this Burt Rutan (of aerospace fame)fellow sometime this spring claimed that the Arctic sea ice was recovering. Appears to me that his claim was inaccurate.

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