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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 54751 to 54800:

  1. CO2 lags temperature
    opd68, the 'upswing and downswing solar forcings' are actually just the onset and completion of a single cycle. That is, as the Northern hemisphere tilts more towards the Sun it receives more sunlight and then as the tilt swings back it receives less. I'm not sure what you mean about 'breaking the equilibrium'. By definition if you have a forcing you don't have equilibrium. When the 'sign' of the forcing changes the feedbacks do so as well. There is no 'barrier' which needs to be broken in order for this to happen. There are several reasons Antarctic temps rose faster than the global average. First, it was experiencing warming due to the shutdown of Atlantic circulation (which basically pulls cold water North) plus global warming from rising CO2 levels... A+B > B alone. Second, there is less water vapor in colder climes and thus increased CO2 levels have a greater warming impact in those areas than they do in warm areas. Third, melting ice exposes darker land and ocean beneath... which absorbs more sunlight and thus warms faster than areas which had exposed land/ocean to begin with. As to the 'warming plateau', this period is generally called the Younger Dryas and there are a number of theories on its cause. All involve some other forcing coming in to play and temporarily offsetting the ongoing solar forcing / CO2 & ice feedback trend. It is anomalous compared to most previous interglacial periods and thus generally considered some kind of random (rather than regularly recurring) event... asteroid impact, increased volcanism, huge freshwater Lake Agassiz suddenly draining into the ocean, et cetera. So the warming trend was really a 'single ongoing event'... just temporarily interrupted by something else.
  2. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    I seached for any information regarding any funding that he might have received from what might be considered 'undesirable' sources, but found none. I think such information would be valuable. I found something about Patrick Michaels recently, but have forgotten where. I think I just assumed that should I need it again, this site was bound to have it. Wrong! This information would help in forming an opinion regarding someone's veracity and it would best be found under their'skeptics' section entry. If none is known, then perhaps it should clearly state 'no known funding issues' or such like.
  3. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 01:42 AM on 6 September 2012
    Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    NSIDC has just issued another report on the Arctic sea ice - click here. Compared to September conditions in the 1980s and 1990s, this represents a 45% reduction in the area of the Arctic covered by sea ice.... ...In 2012, the rate of ice loss for August was 91,700 square kilometers (35,400 square miles) per day, the fastest observed for the month of August over the period of satellite observations. In August 2007, ice was lost at a rate of 66,000 square kilometers (25,400 square miles) per day, and in 2008, the year with the previous highest August ice loss, the rate was 80,600 square kilometers (31,100 square miles) per day.
  4. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Kevin @26 - thanks, I've updated the graphic in the post.
  5. Interactive online map shows over 100 years of local US weather
    There's Climate at a Glance: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html
  6. Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    Just as a helpful point of comparison and ignoring a few peripheral but important issues of packaging etc. diesel yields some 45MJ/kg, just-within-view lithium/air rechargeable batteries ~9MJ/kg. Figuring in the Carnot cycle's annoying features, that puts batteries in shouting distance of diesel, ignoring logistical issues such as charging batteries versus refueling w/diesel, etc.
  7. Bert from Eltham at 00:37 AM on 6 September 2012
    Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    I kmow this is only vaguely connected but it is worth a look. http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15835017 Bert
  8. Interactive online map shows over 100 years of local US weather
    Nice graphs. Thanks!
  9. Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    It's funny, we're all looking for some SF techno fixes when there are so many carbon neutral technologies available.
    There was an old woman who swallowed a fly...
  10. CO2 lags temperature
    Thanks CBD although note an underlying frustration. Please note that these are honest questions and not intended to do anything other than improve my own knowledge. So, to clarify, in reference to the first question/response am I correct in saying that there is a solar-related forcing to trigger the upswing, and a (obviously different) solar-related forcing to trigger the downswing? The warming trigger is enough to break the equilibrium and then the temp/CO2 feedback/forcing continues to a higher equilibrium via the process described in the Topic (as you describe also). The cooling trigger is then enough to break from the higher equilibrium and the equal but opposite (?) feedbacks occur until a lower equilibrium is reach. Re: the second question, I both read and understood the Topic, my thinking was more about: (a) after the initial trigger why does the Antarctic temp continue to rise faster than the global average? Once the CO2 kicks in (well-mixed globally as you note) why the continued difference between hemispheres? and (b) the fact that there are (seemingly) a couple of separate warming events or stages - one at 18k yr ago and then another at about 13k yr ago (after a bit of a plateau. In both cases it looks like the Antarctic Temp increase precedes the CO2 increase. Are these actually separate events with separate triggers, or is it just a break in the forcing/feedback cycle, or just not significant given the data/time-scales?
  11. CO2 lags temperature
    opd68, you say you understand how warming can precede rising CO2 but also ask how cooling can precede falling CO2... the two are exactly the same. Atmospheric CO2 levels do not just magically rise and fall on their own... something has to cause them to do so. Temporal causality holds that this cause must precede the effect. Ergo, in the past CO2 levels have risen and fallen in response to orbital solar forcings as described in the article above. Your second question, about Antarctic temperatures, is also covered in the article; "The Earth's orbital cycles trigger the initial warming (starting approximately 19,000 years ago), which is first reflected in the the Arctic. This Arctic warming caused large amounts of ice to melt, causing large amounts of fresh water to flood into the oceans. This influx of fresh water then disrupted the Atlantic Ocean circulation, in turn causing a seesawing of heat between the hemispheres. The Southern Hemisphere and its oceans warmed first, starting about 18,000 years ago. The warming Southern Ocean then released CO2 into the atmosphere starting around 17,500 years ago, which in turn caused the entire planet to warm via the increased greenhouse effect." All this per Shakun et al 2012, which is obviously a very new study and requiring further confirmation. However, there is nothing surprising about some parts of the planet warming faster than others. The solar forcings of the Milankovitch cycles impact specific hemispheres and only have a net effect because of the differing amounts of land in the two hemispheres. CO2, on the other hand, is well mixed throughout the atmosphere and thus impacts the entire planet 'global mean temperature' (presumably your 'GMT').
  12. CO2 lags temperature
    Likely these queries have been asked before, however I can't find a description. My apologies if it's a repeat. (1) re: Figure 1 of the Topic post - what is the current thinking on the mechanism for cooling which seems to precede CO2 decreases? (2) re: Figure 2 - I understand the trigger for warming being able to precede CO2 increase and then the feedback, but why does the Antarctic temp continue to (seemingly) precede CO2 increases even though the GMT lags it? To perhaps save time, I am a skeptic and still officially uncertain on the big picture. But consider myself a true one (i.e. inquiring, open mind rather than with preconceived ideas either way).
  13. Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    @CBD You're completely right. But... Mine was a simple exercise. I took a tractor as it is today and worked out the weight of batteries required to give and it the same functionality and performance as diesel power provides. Are you aware that when, for instance, ploughing, a tractor has to be refuelled several times a day; and, when harvesting or silaging, a break for a recharge is not an option? I agree that sophisticated technologies might overcome these objections but given the slow uptake of GPS technology for automated field operations it's going to be a slow change. And I come back to my last point. The move from cheap fossil fuels is going to push the cost of food much higher.
  14. Bostjan Kovacec at 21:18 PM on 5 September 2012
    Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    It's funny, we're all looking for some SF techno fixes when there are so many carbon neutral technologies available. People used to plow and harvest with horses, cows and buffalos, in fact, in some parts of the world they still do. No batteries, no wars for resources... Just common sense!
  15. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    sailrick, that is one of several factors which have been proposed as contributing to the accelerated ice loss; 1: Warmer water rising to the surface and causing more 'bottom melt' 2: Warmer water making its way in from the Atlantic and Pacific and causing more 'bottom melt' 3: Increased export of ice out of the Arctic due to greater breakup and stronger currents 4: Increased melt due to 'physical processes' such as waves and storms increasing as the ice cover retreats 5: Black carbon pollution settling on the ice and increasing absorption of sunlight 6: Changes in precipitation resulting in less white snow and thus more solar absorption 7: Possible errors in basic melt calculations such as underestimating the amount of sunlight absorbed by ocean water through thin ice. Et cetera. My money is on increased bottom melt and physical breakup being the most significant factors, but the way it is going the ice will be gone before they can gather enough data to get a definitive answer.
  16. Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    John Russell, you're making an absolute statement after considering only one variable. What kind of charge duration did you assume? From the answer you came up with it seems like you assumed that this hypothetical electric tractor would need sufficient battery capacity to run as long as it could with a full tank of diesel. Yet those aren't guaranteed requirements. Consider advances in self-driving cars and then apply the concept to tractors. The only thing self-driving cars have not mastered is every possible unpredictable thing human drivers could do... a non-issue for a tractor in a field. Thus, there is no reason that an automated tractor could not be built with current technology. Which means it could run 24 hours a day. Which means it could have a smaller battery and stop to recharge as needed. OR advances in microwave power transmission or inductive charging could be applied and you could have a tractor that is continually charged with only an insignificantly tiny battery. OR ongoing advances in battery technology that significantly reduce cost and weight could be applied. Then there are other aspects of food price to consider. One of the major components is transport costs. Those go down when the transportation runs on electricity rather than gasoline... especially if some of the other technologies above are applied as well. If we get to self-driving electric trucks then nationwide shipping costs drop to a tiny fraction of current prices. So no, it isn't viable to say "Anyway you look at it". There are factors in play which could make 'electric farming' less expensive than current... and certainly less expensive than 'diesel farming' will eventually be as the price of oil continues to increase. All that said, there is also no reason farming couldn't continue using fossil fuels if mass transportation and power generation stopped doing so. If we only used fossil fuels for a few energy intensive industries like farming and air travel natural sinks would be able to absorb all of it AND some of the atmospheric excess each year.
  17. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    NSIDC August average extent is out. I believe this to be a fairer comparison than the original. Click for full size version. Conclusions are unchanged.
  18. Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    @Estiben #58 writes... "Farm machinery doesn't have to be fossil fuel powered." As an exercise, a few years ago, I estimated what weight of batteries an electric tractor would need to have the same capability as one diesel-powered. Using the then latest Li-ions the answer was 6 tonnes. I'll leave you to work out the additional cost. Anyway you look at it, once farming moves away from fossil fuels, the cost of food produced will sky-rocket.
  19. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    sout #71 says: I don't know why you are going on and on about the conspiracy side of things. The first article annoncing this survey in the mainstream media was Adam Corner’s in the Guardian with the headline: “Are climate sceptics more likely to be conspiracy theorists?” More recently, Britain’s most popular serious paper, the Telegraph, covered the story in an article with the headline: “Climate change deniers 'are either extreme free marketeers or conspiracy theorists’”. Lewandowsky’s paper is headlined: “NASA faked the moon landing - Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax”. The survey is all about linking scepticism of climate science to belief in conspiracy theories.
  20. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    @catamon #21 Indirectly you raise a couple of interesting points. 1) Studying the time lapse images of the yearly Arctic ice melt it becomes clear that in all likelihood the last of the ice during the summer minimum will end up against the north Greenland coast -- perhaps because it's fed by the calving glaciers(?). And following on from that... 2) The next big summer melt landmark will be the moment that the North Pole becomes part of the area that is 'ice-free'. At that point (as others have pointed out) Father Christmas is homeless. This will be an important news item to prepare for.
  21. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    There is an abstract at AGW Observer today on the Arctic sea water temperatures. Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle - Cronin et al. (2012) It starts out - Abstract: “In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. ...." If I'm reading it right, it's saying their research indicates there is a layer of warmer water, below cold fresh surface water, that gets pushed down during a glacial period and rises during warming. After reading the SkSc article, I wondered if this might have something to do with climate models under estimating sea ice loss. ?
  22. Models are unreliable
    Sphaerica, Whatever we use to illustrate and communicate our science must, in my opinion, be valid and justified. Otherwise we are simply gilding the lily. The fact that life and death decisions can be made with a paucity of information does not mean that we would be better off not doing so if we can. My opinion is simply that if we are using models to predict outcomes and inform our decisions then if we are confident in them and can demonstrate that to others: (1) we will more easily gain acceptance of the need for and impacts of our decisions, and (2) our decisions are more likely to be good ones. If the models can be so easily discarded, then we have spent a very long time and a lot of money & effort that could have been better employed elsewhere. If, however, they are a key element in improving our understanding and ability to communicate the problem then we can't afford to discount the need for them to be robust and demonstrably so. My point, which I'm still not sure was either wrong or silly, was simply that since we are using these tools I was interested in seeing how they were performing because that is how I increase my confidence in other peoples knowledge and build my own. Your point (1) in 'the bottom line' indicates to me that you think exactly the same way: a model of physics predicted the change and the observations supported those predictions - and you use this evidence to support your knowledge.
  23. Realistically What Might the Future Climate Look Like?
    John Russell @55 Farm machinery doesn't have to be fossil fuel powered. But, yes, leaving out machinery, it would be more efficient to grow on a small scale. That's great, if you live where you can grow everything you want, or are willing to settle for what you can grow. I guess I could live without coffee and mangoes. Transport will still be needed, however. I don't think all the people in Arizona or the sub-Sahara can grow their own food locally, at least not without importing a lot of water.
  24. Models are unreliable
    563, opd68, Sorry, I've been too busy to follow the conversation and get caught up on everything that's been said, but this one comment struck me (and it's wrong):
    Once we start using that model to predict future impacts and advise policy then we must expect to be asked to demonstrate the predictive capability of that model, especially when the predicted impacts are so significant.
    We're not entirely using models to predict and advise. It's one tool of many, and really, if we wanted to we could throw them out (at least, the complex GCMs, I mean -- after all, all human knowledge is in the form of models, so we can't really throw that out). The bottom line is: 1) The physics predicts the change, and predicted the change before it occurred, and observations support those predictions 2) Multiple, disparate lines of investigation (observations, paleoclimate, models, etc.) point to a climate sensitivity of between 2 C and 4.5 C for a doubling of CO2. 3) None of this requires models -- yes, they add to the strength of the assessment in #2, but you could drop them and you'd still have the same answer. The models are an immensely valuable tool, but there is no reason to apply the exceptional caveat that they must be proven accurate to use them as a policy tool. Poppycock. Human decisions, life-and-death decisions, are made with far, far less knowledge (conduct of wars, economies, advances in technology, etc.). To say that we need even more certainty when dealing with what may turn out to be the most dangerous threat faced by man in the past 50,000 years is... silly.
  25. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    21, catamon, WTF moment? Don't bet on it. There will be: 1) Joy that we can finally drill and easily traverse the Arctic. 2) Certainty that this has all happened before, and it's part of a natural cycle. 3) Questions of how you can possibly think that the loss of Arctic ice is caused the the thoroughly discredited GHG Theory to begin with.
  26. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    17, Albatross, Personally, I don't think that distinction is going to matter for more than a few years. People can fight in that period over the distinction, but after that zero ice will be the new black. Then the game will switch to "how early" in the year zero is reached. And we get to see the answer to the really big question, which is "will there even be winter ice once the summer ice is seriously gone?"
  27. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Figure 2 in this is a pretty striking one. As far as "ice free" Arctic summer goes, i think the big media hit will come when we see something like figure 2 with just a small patch of ice, completely surrounded by open water at the pole. Has to be a WTF moment for "skeptics" when that happens surely??
  28. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Albatross said: "Either Christy is ignorant of where the body scientific evidence and theory stands and that his opinions are by far associated a fringe element, or he accepts that and is guilty of engaging in highly misleading rhetoric and propaganda in public..." ____ There is another possibility. Christy is blinded by his own belief structure that tells him that Anthropogenic warming simply can't have such drastic effects as melting the Arctic decades before most climate models even said it would happen. In this case, Christy is guilty of the "confirmation bias" problem in that he only sees what he wants to see and interprets it based on his paradigm that AGW is small at best and will not have significant impacts...
  29. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    This is an excellent article, and provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the Arctic from a long-term perspective. Takeaways from this: 1) Arctic is headed toward an ice-free condition in the next few years(possibly by 2020). 2) Human activity is the cause. 3) The deniers of #1 and #2 will stop at nothing to hold on to their illusion for as long as possible, and when the inevitable ice-free Arctic arrives, they'll say something like "so who cares...it doesn't affect me." or worse, "now we can get at the oil." For a nice summary of this summer's Arctic melt, take a look at this article, with links to other research that answers the question, "Why you should care...": [LINK]
    Moderator Response: [RH] Hot linked url
  30. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 12:57 PM on 5 September 2012
    AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    @geoffchambers - the study found that extreme right wing ideology was a strong predictor of rejection of climate science. The number of conspiracy theorists who responded was very low (unsurprisingly). Conspiracy theorists were separated from 'skeptics' in the analysis and the attempt to analyse them found not as high a correlation with science rejection as with 'skeptics' in any case. So I don't know why you are going on and on about the conspiracy side of things. As for 'skeptics' not seeing the survey. A 'skeptic' such as you've described would be bound to visit a broad range of websites and not huddle on 'skeptic' websites. Therefore the chances are that some of them would have seen and responded to the survey. As comments on mainstream climate science websites (such as this one) illustrate, even 'fake skeptics' visit here and elsewhere. This is borne out by the survey responses. The study findings should not be surprising to anyone, whether they are a fake skeptic or someone who seriously wants to know facts. The reaction baffles me. As anyone who visits climate science blogs and anti-science blogs knows, many 'skeptics' claim climate science is a left wing hoax. Yet there seem to be a lot of 'skeptics' who want to dispute the finding of this survey, that having a more conservative bias, particularly at the extreme end, is a predictor of rejection of science. The reaction of 'skeptics' seems to me to be contrariness taken to absurd lengths.
  31. Models are unreliable
    JasonB - clearest response/conversation I have had on that ever. Thank you. scaddenp - what I am looking for is each 'against' argument dealt with rationally and thoughtfully, which is why I'm working through this as I am.
  32. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    Getting back to the focus of the OP, some pretty good responses to misinformation can often be found on the same "skeptic" site that publishes the misinformation, down in the comments. It is true that it can be buried in noise, that comes with the audience. The social media acceptance of dissonance, contradiction and noise is a hallmark of this debate, popularity does not often come with quiet rational discussion, but popularity has its advantages.
  33. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Sorry... links fixed here, please feel free to delete the first one. Alert to false balance, I was pleasantly surprised by a Sydney Morning Herald article by journalist Nicole Hashem. She found a way to avoid false balance while still providing an alternative view in this article about Tim Flannery and a Climate Commission public forum. You'll need to read the article to see who she used for balance, I won't spoil the moment. Sydney Morning Herald I liked it so much, I blogged it here.
  34. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    John @7, That is a very important and valid question. Fortunately, people have been thinking about this. Right now, IIRC, the accepted definition of an Arctic free of sea ice is when the sea ice extent drops below 1 million km^2. But it would be very prudent at this point to unequivocally define what is meant by "ice free". Does it refer to ice extent, area or volume, or all three metrics dropping below specified limits? Does it refer to those limits being met for a day, 5 days or a month? Which product (or products) will be used?
  35. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Jason B @15, Good catch. We noticed that too. One has to really question whether or not Christy truly believes what he is saying. Regardless of how one tries to frame it, it reflects very poorly on him. Either Christy is ignorant of where the body scientific evidence and theory stands and that his opinions are by far associated a fringe element, or he accepts that and is guilty of engaging in highly misleading rhetoric and propaganda in public. Sadly, it would not be the first time that he has engaged in the latter.
  36. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    Composer and skywatcher, Ironically, the self-styled "skeptics" seem to not understand what it means (or involves) to be a true skeptic. What we have here, on this very thread, are examples of the behaviour of what is more accurately called fake skeptics. Perusing the thread quickly exposes the fake skeptics. To the fake skeptics I say, please stop abusing and soiling the term "skeptic" by associating it with your misguided and ideological belief system. Stephan has enough material following this fiasco to write a paper on a case study of fake skeptics confirming the very hypothesis that they are railing against. Too funny for words.
  37. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    I like the way Christy used the phrase "To some... To the rest of us...", implying that those he disagrees with are actually the ones in the minority. It reminds me of the following exchange in Blackadder: Rum: Opinion is divided on the subject. Edmund: Oh, really? [starting to get the picture] Rum: Yahs. All the other captains say it is; I say it isn't. The response seems apropos, too: Edmund: Oh, God; Mad as a brush.
  38. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    I would have to say that the modern sceptic/skeptic movement is not as passive as the ancient Greek version. I am here thinking of the skeptics that organize JREF, or who form the blogging collective Skeptic North, or similar outfits. Rather than simply deferring judgement on phenomena or claims until all the facts are in, the modern skeptic behaves in a manner similar to the professional scientist: accepting caims proportionately to the evidence that can be mustered to support them. At any rate, whatever definition one uses, skywatcher's point that self-styled skeptics of climate science are, in their uncritical acceptance of dubious contrary claims in the face of an enormous body of consilient supporting evidence, definitely not behaving in a manner consistent with skepticism, stands.
  39. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    A reply to #64:
    A sceptic is someone who suspends judgement until he knows all the facts.
    I haven't seen much evidence of that at many 'sceptic' websites about climate science. Instead, there's copious evidence of people uncritically accepting any old rubbish so long as it appears to contradict the consilience of evidence on climate change. One week there'll be an argument saying CO2 rise is natural, the next week CO2 won't be rising; the week afterwards, CO2 is rising but it's not warming; after that, it is warming but it's all natural; after that it's UHI; after that, the scientists are making everything up; but after that CO2 won't be scattering IR radiation and warming the surface (somehow); after that, the hockey stick is broken (except when it shows a large MCA, in which case palaeoclimate evidence is perfect); after that, it's all the Sun, which is odd if it's not warming! And of course it's always cooling, because 'sceptics' don't seem to be able to understand the difference between signal and noise! There's precious little real scepticism being shown by so-called "climate sceptics". So many of these arguments are either contradicted by the full body of evidence, or contradict themselves (e.g. "it's not warming" and "warming is natural"). There's no coherent hypothesis to explain the existing evidence. Not one "sceptic" has come up with such an hypothesis, despite years of this so-called debate. "Scepticism" would be a great deal more believable, and less like a conspiracy theory if climate sceptics could come up with a coherent hypothesis to test. But I'm not holding my breath. The real 'sceptics' are scientists, who test their hypotheses to breaking point all the time, and have thus come up with the theory that CO2 is the biggest control knob on climate, one we're turning right now, a theory that fits the physics, the observations, the palaeoclimatic evidence and the models. Please come up with a better theory! I want the science to be wrong on this. But I need strong evidence to do this, not a hodge-podge of mutually contradictory and easily falsifiable ideas with precious little evidence to support them.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed text.
  40. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    GeoffChambers @54 and foxgoose @65, if there is a problem with announcing preliminary results, it is at most that it might bias the returns from "skeptical" sites should it be heard of. This is only a problem if the survey did not have a deadline for completion prior to Sept 23rd, 2010. Should Lewandowski have received a large number of responses after announcing the preliminary results that changed the outcome, he would merely have to have corrected the announced result.
  41. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    Clarifications Apparently my comments have caused a stir in the blogosphere, and require some clarification. First, apparently some people are treating my comments as representing an official view of Skeptical Science. They are not. I have only spoken for myself; and will never speak as an official spokes person of Skeptical Science except in my limited role as a moderator. Nothing I say or write outside of moderation boxes on SkS represents any view other than my own, although other SkS authors may agree with me to a greater or lesser extent. Second, I have not called for the retraction of the Lewandowsky paper. My understanding is that the paper is accepted for publication, but not yet printed. As such it can be withdrawn from publication to allow time for a re-write to correct what I consider to be major flaws. If, however, it has already been printed, it should not be retracted. Retraction is an admission of fraud, or of completely unscientific practice, neither of which have occurred here. If the paper has already been printed, the appropriate course, should Lewandowsky become convinced of the existence of major flaws, is the printing of a correction. It has been suggested in private correspondence that calling for the withdrawal of a paper is a major insult. It was certainly not my intention to insult Lewandowsky and his co-authors; and I regret any offense that they have taken. It has further been suggested that calling for withdrawal is equivalent to saying, "Your work is of such shameful quality that it needs to be removed at once." In my view this is an absurd interpretation. In my view it is equivalent to saying, "Your work as it currently stands is likely to mislead, and as I accept that you are a person of principle, I expect that you do not want to do that, even inadvertently, and will act accordingly". My full response on this point, minus an introductory and identifying comment, was:
    "Unless it is acceptable practise for scientists to knowningly allow falsehood to be published under their name, on hearing of a significant flaw in their paper, the paper must be re-written if there is time; withdrawn and re-written if there is not time for a rewrite before going to press; or have a correction published if it has gone to press. Because these are minimal standards of proper conduct, suggesting that an as yet unprinted paper be re-written or withdrawn is no more offensive than suggesting that it contains major flaws. The only way my suggestions can be considered offensive is if it is insulting to suggest major flaws in somebodies paper. Such an ettiquette is, however, entirely inconsistent with the vigourous review that is the sin qua non of science. Such an ettiquette may have grown up among scientists by custom; but in that event it is irrational and I will not pander to it."
    Third, lest there be any doubt, there is no reasonable suggestion of fraud or other scientific wrong doing here. At most Lewandowsky has been too casual in screening for gamed responses; and slightly over interpreted the results. That represents a major flaw in the paper (if I am correct); but has no implications whatever about Lewandowsky's integrity as a scientist. IMO, Lewandowsky's choice of a title is, and should be, far more damaging to his reputation as a scientist than the other flaws (IMO) in his paper.
  42. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    chriskoz @5 - all of our posts on Christy are included in the blog posts tab of his 'skeptic' page.
  43. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    As kevin s @11 notes, the criticism is of false balance. When 97% of experts agree on something, getting a quote from one of the few who disagree is not achieving balance, it is creating the semblance that there is serious dispute amongst the experts, over-representing the few 'skeptics'. As the post above clearly shows, there is really no dispute in the scientific literature that the current sea ice decline is unprecedented over the past several thousand years and primarily human-caused. Christy's inclusion in the article didn't add anything except unnecessarily sowing doubt where no serious doubt exists.
  44. AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    sout #63: “There are differing views among experts on whether to force a response (eg have a four point scale) without a neutral mid-point or whether to allow neutral and/or don't know responses”. Agreed. But this was a survey designed to attract sceptics, and be used by sceptics. A sceptic is someone who suspends judgement until he knows all the facts. This definition goes back at least as far as Pyrrho of Elis in the 4th century BC and maybe further (Anyone got their Diogenes Laertes handy?) Lewandowsky, in an interview on a University of Western Australia site, makes much of the fact that he received responses from Australia; the USA; the UK and elsewhere. (That’s how we have to piece together the demographics of this survey, because nothing is revealed in the paper itself). I, an Englishman, know nothing about the Oklahoma bombing. How much does the average American know about the death of Princess Diana, or the average Australian about the US policy on interning extraterrestrials? We sceptics are likely to be doubtful and unwilling to commit ourselves. So we get chucked out of the survey for refusing to answer, in other words, for beng ... sceptical.
  45. Models are unreliable
    opd68 - you are correct that obviously sensitivity is ultimately a function of the model construction. "our input assumptions" of course are known physics. You ask "are we confident in our understanding of the forcings that are underpinning our predictions at increasing CO2 levels?". The answer is yes, but I wonder what you are looking for that could give you that assurance? It's rather exhaustively dealt with in Ch9 from memory of the AR4 IPCC report. If that didnt convince you then what are you looking for? These forcings and response can be verified independent of GCMs.
  46. New research from last week 35/2012
    The Nature Climate Change September issue contains Anderson and Bows "A new paradigm for climate change". The blurb on the issue homepage says: How climate change science is conducted, communicated and translated into policy must be radically transformed if 'dangerous' climate change is to be averted. The paper is behind a paywall, but is discussed in the available editorial "Clarion Call".
  47. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 04:34 AM on 5 September 2012
    AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
    First, the absence of a neutral (I don't know/I know nothing about it) option... A neutral response is not the same as a 'don't know' response. The former is the mid-point on the (Likert) scale (eg option 3 of 5 options or option 2 of 3 options). The 'don't know' option is basically the same as not offering a response and is separate from the choice scale itself. There are differing views among experts on whether to force a response (eg have a four point scale) without a neutral mid-point or whether to allow neutral and/or don't know responses. And some people use different scales and choices in some circumstances but not others. I expect Dr Lewandowski has a reasonable amount of experience in surveys and would certainly have access to literature on the topic.
  48. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Thanks for the article. Clyde: Interesting comment. If you---or anyone for that matter---has evidence that the recent decline in Arctic sea ice is "similar" to other time frames, I'd actually be quite interested in reading about that. However, I'm not interested in reading the other assertions in your comment. The article above clearly lies out why Christy's claims are questionable at best. Believe it or not, there are many people from this "point of view" who would actually be thrilled to wake up one day and find that the concern regarding greenhouse gases and climate change are entirely unfounded. However, the world around us is full of increasing evidence that convince me otherwise.
  49. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    Clyde, the criticism about "balance" is precisely that the media does not present a truly balanced view. Perhaps a better way to say it is that the common approach in the media is not to present a properly weighted view. Please consider an analogy. Let's say you consult one hundred doctors about some symptoms you have. 97 of them give you diagnosis A, 2 do not arrive at a clear diagnosis, and one gives you diagnosis B. When loved ones ask after your health, would it be a properly balanced response to say "Well, it could be A or it could be B"? This is what is being criticized in the post above. The mainstream media presents the position of about 1% of scientists who have studied climate as though it is of comparable relevance to the position of about 98% of scientists who have studied climate. It is not balance, it is "balance;" an Orwellian term if ever one existed.
  50. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
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