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Comments 55551 to 55600:

55551. Tom Curtis at 10:08 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       h-j-m @1009, the approximate increase in solar forcing, globally averaged and adjusted for albedo, from the minimum to maximum TSI on the chart above is 0.15 W/m^2. Assuming the central estimate of climate sensitivity of 3 degrees C per doubling of CO2,ie, per 3.7 W/m^2, that means we would expect a 0.12 degree C increase in temperature from that increased insolation. Therefore, quite clearly, and contrary to your analogy, the Earth's atmosphere has reached and exceeded the equilibrium change in temperature expected from the peak TSI and would be expected to decrease with decreasing TSI where it not for other factors. Indeed, even if the Sun where to remain constant at 1950 levels, or even continue increasing, there would be a substantial disequilibrium which would lead us to expect the Earth to be cooling. You claim to be able to make a significant point despite these facts because you are, you claim, making a purely formal point about the argument supposedly used in the basic rebutal (but not the intermediate or advanced rebutals) above. However the formal argument you claim to be disproving was not made above. What was claimed was that:

       "Over the last 30 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate are going in opposite directions. This has led a number of scientists independently concluding that the sun cannot be the cause of recent global warming."

       (My emphasis) That claim is true. Further, as scientists they examined a range of evidence, one key fact of which is the oppositely trending series of TSI and temperature. The validity of those scientists reasoning cannot be assessed by simply ignoring all other empirical facts, including those additional facts presented above. Claiming a purely formal refutation of scientific reasoning while ignoring the great body of evidence presented is rather silly, IMO.
55552. Dale at 09:30 AM on 10 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       I thank those who helped me to find the info I was after, and to those who felt derision was more appropriate let me just suggest it is not a wise path to take to educate lay-people on climate change.
55553. chuckbot at 08:24 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       A further, slightly tangential consideration is whether or not massive coal deposits like those we mine now could ever be laid again - right now I'm reading through a really interesting article which attributes the end of the Carboniferous era to the evolution of lignin-digesting fungi. I wonder how this effects biomass sequestration - would it have been easier to bury carbon before the rise of white rot? http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6089/1715.abstract
55554. Tom Curtis at 07:25 AM on 10 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       funglestrumpet @33, however emotionally satisfying the concept of some sort of (-snip-) for AGW deniers and their enablers may be, it is a morally and legally repugnant concept. We are not gathering evidence to be used against perpetrators. We are exposing the illogicality and the lack of evidential basis of the veiws presented by certain people so that others will not be mislead. We are educating, not preparing a brief. Never forget that for the great majority of deniers and their enablers, including A Watts, their views are sincerely held, no matter how poorly related to actual evidence.
       Moderator Response: [DB] Reference to snipped comment snipped.
55555. Tom Curtis at 07:20 AM on 10 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Philippe Chantreau @35, if Dr Pielke is claiming that there is no right answer to the dispute between him and Dana, then logically he is admitting that he had no basis to accuse Field of misrepresenting the SREX, ie, that Dana is right. I believe, however, we should only interpret his "agree to disagree" as indicating that he does not think that either he will persuade Dana, nor Dana him of the respective correctness of their positions. Of course, the fact is that he consistently claims Field has misrepresented the SREX when Field correctly represented the SREX claims about hazards because the SREX was unable to attribute part of the very large increases in costs from natural disasters. These are conceptually very different things. What is worse, these are key conceptual distinctions in Pielke's area of expertise, so he cannot be unaware of them. Therefore he cannot reasonably have been assumed to mistake one for the other. The only way Pielke can escape the charge of deliberately slandering Field is if he presents an argument that direct costs of natural disasters are the only thing of concern to policy makers in determining a response to global warming. In fact, the only way his original post would not have been disingenuous is if he had explicitly made that argument. But his is wise to not have attempted that argument because it is blatantly false. In a world of increasing hazards, increasing disasters and costs from disasters can only be avoided by taking explicit measures to prepare for the eventuality of those hazards affecting large populations, either by engineering works, upgrading building codes or preparing for emergency responses. Therefore increasing hazards impose increasing costs, and possibly the requirement for increasing regulation - matters certainly of concern to policy makers.
55556. Paul D at 07:03 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       my take home was... It's silly taking out coal in the ground when we can use other energy sources and Coal is sequestered carbon. The article is quite clear and Sarahs 'vision' is quite clear and logical. I don't understand Gustafssons problem. Is the article scientific?? Not exactly, but then it is logical if you detach energy from carbon. If the problem is carbon then it makes sense. If you are only interested in energy, then sure manipulate the worlds carbon and mess around with natural processes. But the point is you can get energy with the minimum impact on what nature has produced.
55557. Bob Lacatena at 04:19 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       h-j-m, Forgive my confusion, but what are the analogues for the stove, heating plate, pot and water in your analogy? If the stove is the sun, and the water is the atmosphere (or ocean + atmosphere, or earth climate in general), what the heck are the heating plate and the pot itself? What makes you think that somewhere in the system is this interval component or components that stores up solar energy in particular and then releases it more slowly? Your analogy makes no sense to me. [Mind you, the oceans themselves can take the role of the heating plate + pot, if the water in the pot is the atmosphere, and we are in fact seeing this. A lot of the energy is going into the oceans as the earth warms, so that warming of the atmosphere is not as apparent as one might expect. But the source of the warming is all of the components of the climate system -- sun, GHGs, aerosols, albedo -- not just the sun. So in that aspect, your analogy shows nothing with respect to the issue under discussion. And as Dan Bailey already pointed out, the oceans are continuing to warm as the output of the sun has decreased, so in that aspect your analogy again fails. Both the water and the heating plate continue to rise in temperature after the stove has been turned off. Don't you think that then implies that perhaps there's another, dangerous fire you should look for?]
55558. Bob Lacatena at 04:11 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Gustafsson, I understand your misconception in looking at the Escheresque picture (about renewables), but the intent is not I think to take out the same carbon, but rather to use sequestration as an excuse to keep taking out other carbon. In this way you are right, it's like nuclear fuel in that you burn it and then you're left with a nasty, hard to dispose of waste product. But the point was never to imply using up the same carbon as was sequestered, but instead to use the technology as an excuse to create an infinite loop (limited of course by FF availability) which keeps taking new carbon sources out of the ground and then burying them again. As far as Mike's and your sentiments... I think you are getting lost in a gray area. No one is saying "don't do it at all." Clearly every bit of sequestration we can manage will be needed just to draw down CO2 levels from the heights to which we've already pushed them. But using CCS as an excuse to keep burning FF and ignoring the problem is insanity. It is similarly ill-advised to keep pushing CC2 as a solution, rather than as a mere stop gap at first and maybe as a way back from the brink later, when we have our emissions under control through other means.
55559. jimb at 03:23 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Gustafsson @ 8- Who said anything about recycling or renewables?
55560. ranyl at 03:06 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Don't that CCS stuff reduce the efficiency of thos ethere powerstations meaning you have burn a hold lot extra of that there coal gas to get the same energy out? And as CO2 captured is always directly related to fuel in, isn't this slightly self defeating and mean that CCS captures not very much at all. 2%? "Post-combustion capture Capture of carbon dioxide from flue gas streams following combustion in air is much more difficult and expensive than from natural gas streams, as the carbon dioxide concentration is only about 14% at best, with nitrogen most of the rest, and the flue gas is hot. The main process treats carbon dioxide like any other pollutant, and as flue gases are passed through an amine solution the CO2 is absorbed. It can later be released by heating the solution. This amine scrubbing process is also used for taking CO2 out of natural gas. There is a significant energy cost involved. For new power plants this is quoted as 20-25% of plant output, due both to reduced plant efficiency and the energy requirements of the actual process. No commercial-scale power plants are operating with this process yet. At the new 1300 MWe Mountaineer power plant in West Virginia, less than 2% of the plant's off-gas is being treated for CO2 recovery, using chilled amine technology. This has been successful. Subject to federal grants, there are plans to capture and sequester 20% of the plant's CO2, some 1.8 million tonnes CO2 per year." http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf83.html Sequesters at best 20% as of now, and reduces efficencies by 20%, so overall about 2% CO2 sequestered. CCS is however attracting lots and lots and lots of funding though and Biomass CCS is grwoing in popularity. Maybe in time.....Oh yeah we don't have any time do we!! And what about all those re-agents and all the process needed to make them?
55561. Philippe Chantreau at 02:47 AM on 10 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       "let us agree to disagree." Indeed that is a poor rethorical artifice that one with academic background such Dr Pielke should avoid,especially when talking about science with plenty of references that are plain to see for all. It amounts to trying to establish that there is no right answer and in any case does not address any of the substance in the OP.
55562. Bernard J. at 02:37 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Hn... I'm somewhat startled to see the technotopian response to what is really a very straightforward consequence of accounting for thermodynamics. I'll repeat my earlier question, and note that it's the same question I put to those who think that humans can solve their planetary degradation problems by travelling to the stars... ...where are your energy-budget numbers that show that the concept(s) will work, in the face of thermodynamics? For reference, it's informative to consider some of Tom Murphy's BotE estimations. Tom himself admits that they're rough figures, but I have yet to see anyone who can demonstrate that Tom is off the mark, and that humans can efficiently put their carbon toothpaste back into the tube. And where the burial of vast quantities of naturally-fixed carbon is proposed as a solution, no-one has explained why it is not more efficient to use these as energy sources themselves, rather than the fossil carbon that they are to replace underground. Of course, the answer to that is rather obvious. No, the numbers simply do not add up in the context of humanity's current energy appetite. Sequestration in any way currently understood will be no more than tinkering at the edges of the problem.
55563. CBDunkerson at 02:36 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       I think h-j-m is saying that the argument that, 'the Sun has not caused the observed warming because solar energy has been decreasing' is contradicted by his example of the pot continuing to warm after the hot plate is turned down. The most immediate problem with that chain of logic is that it is only true if we didn't run the hot plate at full power long enough for the pot of water to pass the equilibrium temperature for half power... if we did then the pot does not continue warming when we turn the power down... it is already warmer than can be maintained by the new half power setting and thus would begin cooling. Applying that issue to changes in solar output and earth temperature equilibrium we have to consider what the temperature response time to changes in solar output is... and there is this thing called 'night' which I'm going to suggest makes a very strong case for the response time being pretty darn fast. Ergo, no... we aren't still experiencing residual warming from an increase in solar activity fifty years ago.
55564. Jeffrey Davis at 02:31 AM on 10 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       "Let us agree to disagree ... " Ah, the rhetorical pixie dust to try to cover a multitude of sins.
55565. ajki at 02:24 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       Isn't this stove/pot thing [WUWT] pure and debunked Spencerism [SkS]?
55566. Bernard J. at 02:06 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       

       Sarah is entitled to her opinion. But that is all it is, there is nothing remotely scientific about this post.

       Really? Perhaps you can demonstrate the validity of your claim and show your calculations for the energy required to sequester carbon in reduced form, compared and contrasted with the energy obtained by combustion of solid carbon. You must be aware of some thermodynamic loophole that has escaped most of the world's physical chemists, if you attach no scientific credibility to Sarah's discussion. For gaseous and liquid carbon, you might show similar calculations. And where you intend that carbon be sequestered as CO₂ rather than as solid carbon, perhaps you will demonstrate numerically how successfully humans will return CO₂ to subsurface reservoirs, both in terms of total energy return on energy expenditure and of centuries/millenia scales of effective reservoir integrity. The only way that carbon sequestration can work effectively in the short time period required is if humans have aburdly abundant renewable energy available: there is no way to drive effective sequestration with carbon-sourced energy. Without such spare energy sequestration is nothing like "an option" - the laws of thermodynamics don't permit cheating.
55567. Daniel Bailey at 02:06 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       

       "So that in the experiment I can be reasonably sure that the heating water has to be caused by the heating plate (energy source). Now simple applied logic demands that you need to allow for that as well if you talk about the sun and the earth."

       What makes you think that this hasn't already been allowed for? Seriously? We see a decline in TSI. There exists an energy imbalance at the TOA, causing the system to warm. We know that the documented rise in CO2 is responsible for that TOA energy imbalance. The energy budget accounting for the various air/water/land components of the system closely sums to what we see at the TOA. Where's the problem?
55568. Gustafsson at 01:54 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       I just registered, just to see that Mike had said most of what i wanted to say, but i will elaborate a bit. I usually enjoy reading SkS articles because they are well written and based on research but this one is mainly an opinion and the final conclusion isn't much more than wishful thinking. "Of these, storage of CO2 in deep geological formations is considered to be the most technologically feasible (IEA). Since the carbon would be stored as CO2, not as fixed carbon, these reservoirs (and CO2 pipelines) will require continuous monitoring for leaks." So, the most technically feasible way to store CO2, that could help reduce CO2 in the atmosphere and be one of the many combined ways we reach a carbon neutral future as fast as possible is dismissed because it would require monitoring? Really? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is in my opinion not a goal, but a bridging technology. We have coal, natural gas and oil power plants now and as much as we want a non-fossil alternative, changing the entire system is not going to happen over night. While the system is changing we can use CCS to mitigate the damage of our current system by retro-fitting old plants or even burning bio-fuels in CCS-plants to reduce CO2 concentrations in the apmosphere. jimb @ 6 - CCS has never been about making fossile coal into a "renewable" as is shown in the picture. It is not recycling. Think of it more like nuclear waste management: We can either spread the nuclear waste in the atmosphere or we can bury it in the ground where it wont hurt us as much. The later alternative is more expensive but as it wont hurt society as much it is still more cost efficient, which is why we have regulations. The only difference is that nobody argues with the scientists when they say nuclear waste is dangerous.
55569. Slioch at 01:40 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Another method of sequestrating carbon not mentioned here is via the weathering of silicate rocks, particularly those of an ultrabasic composition, that is, those containing a relatively high percentage of iron, magnesium, calcium and other non-alkali metals. This occurs naturally, of course, but at a rate far too slow to counteract significantly the spike in atmospheric CO2 caused by human actions. However, ultrabasic rocks such as serpentinites, if finely ground and spread upon the ground will weather rapidly and moreover and are said to assist plant growth and possibly carbon storage in soils. Clearly, there will be substantial energy costs during the mining, crushing, transportation and spreading procedures, but the end result may be enhanced fertility, increased crop yields and a modest contribution to carbon sequestration. Unfortunately, I am unaware of any quantitative studies into this possibility.
55570. jimb at 01:39 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Mike @ 5- I understood the cartoon to not be focussed on the final storage of the carbon dioxide that is released from the burning of coal, but that the process, like a perpetual motion machine, can never be 100% efficient. The efficiency will be determined by (i) the percentage of carbon dioxide captured and (ii) the amount of carbon dioxide created by the various processes and equipment used to capture and store the gas.
55571. h-j-m at 01:37 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       Sorry, but both of you seemed to miss the point of my remarks. I was not appealing at some thermal flywheel effect nor to the energy balance of earth. I was simply appealing to the logic of the argument heading this thread. What was the described experiment for? Just compare it with sun-earth interaction. There is an energy source constant or declining in energy intensity ( sun - heating plate) and an energy receiver ( earth - pot of water) constantly heating up. The difference is that in my experiment I can make sure to exclude any other possible influence. So that in the experiment I can be reasonably sure that the heating water has to be caused by the heating plate (energy source). Now simple applied logic demands that you need to allow for that as well if you talk about the sun and the earth. In short I doubt that logic of the given argument is sound.
55572. Mike3267 at 00:57 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Sarah is entitled to her opinion. But that is all it is, there is nothing remotely scientific about this post. A lot CH4 is stored safely under ground. CO2 can be too. Whether this will prove cost effective remains to be seen. Clearly, IMO, this is a long shot. Efficiency, conservation and non fossil fuel energy sources are our best bets, but we should keep all options open.
55573. chriskoz at 00:17 AM on 10 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       Very nice cartoon, Sarah. It gave me a healthy dose of laugh, especially the guy catching CO2 molecules like butterflies. That picture is doubling the informative value of all the words of the article.
55574. Tom Curtis at 00:10 AM on 10 August 2012
       It's the sun
       Bernard J. @1007, I believe h-j-m is actually suggesting that the Outgoing Lonwwave Radiation (OLR) was much less than the incoming shortwave radiation from the Sun (TSI) circa 1950 such that a small reduction in TSI still leaves TSI > OLR and the Earth with a lack of balance between incoming and outgoing energy that would warm the Earth. This notion is refuted by the very small changes in TSI over the course of the century which are insufficient to generate the large initial energy imbalance on which his implicit argument depends. Despite my disagreement on interpretation of his argument, I think he would still do well to examine the different warming rate between the two hemispheres.
55575. Bernard J. at 23:59 PM on 9 August 2012
       It's the sun
       h-j-m. You're appealing to what is often colloquially referred to as the thermal flywheel effect. However, with a little cerebral activity you should be able to grasp why the sort of disparity between solar output and climatic response is not as temporally shifted as you seem to think. There are several quite separate avenues that demonstrate this but sticking with just one for now, you might like to think what happens to the two hemispheres of the planet in its annual orbit around the sun. Is that sufficient nudging?
55576. h-j-m at 23:39 PM on 9 August 2012
       It's the sun
       For some years now at this topic I still see the same argument stated as refutation of the claim that the sun might play a significant role. Now, I have serious problems accepting the argument. I will try to explain with a simple experiment. I take an electric stove and a pot of water and thermometers to measure the temperature of the heating plate and the water. Now I place the pot of water on the heating plate and turn the stove to full power. Measurements show the temperature at the heating plate rising fast and water temperature rising slowly. After 5 minutes I turn the stove down to half power and in response I can measure the temperature of the heating plate first stalling and the dropping significantly. But the temperature of the water keeps rising and even more rising faster. If I follow the argument given here then the rising water temperature in my experiment can not be explained by the fact that the thermal energy transmitted from the heating plate, though dropping, still exceeds the capacity of the pot with water of emitting energy. Somehow I have severe doubts about that.
55577. funglestrumpet at 22:40 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       I assume that most sks subscribers have as a goal that of combating climate change. The chances of achieving that goal are bound to be hindered by any obfuscation such as that exposed herein. While it might be that the views these people express are genuinely held, it is difficult to believe that when one studies the tactics employed, as so clearly exposed by this excellent article. One wonders if Professor Pielke Jr would take this article’s exposure of his tactics so lightly as to breeze in to the comments section, say “Hello!” and then breeze out again after making little or no contribution to an article that questions his ethics if he were to consider that the article would form part of a body of evidence against him in the event of there being a commission or tribunal to apportion blame when climate change starts to really bite. When the events of this year will be seen as ‘rosy’ in comparison. When the public cotten on to how much they have been duped and demand punishment of those concernded. To this end, can I suggest that instead of having just a few persons selected for exposure, as in Christy’s Crocs (top left of the page), we simply have a link entitled: EVIDENCE AGAINST leading to a separate thread for each specific misinformation by each person considered to have deliberately mis-informed the public generally and the policy makers in particular. That thread should open for all to see, but only the named person and sks authors allowed to comment to the point where the evidence stands or falls or, I suppose, an ‘agree to differ’ point is reached. The comments policy would be different and I am not in a position to be specific, but I think one policy should be that deliberate denial of having said something when the evidence is clear that they have indeed said such a thing should lead to automatic termination with a ‘PROVEN’ note as the closing comment (no prizes for guessing which British peer I have in mind). There should be one thread for each transgression with the date and place of transgression recorded, unless it is repeated, when all that would be needed is a note to that effect with the date and place noted. Out of courtesy, we should inform the person concerned of the fact that the evidence is being gathered and offer them the opportunity to defend their position. I assume that not all misinformation is deliberate even if we think it is and there has to the opportunity for the individual to effectively cancel it by posting AGREED as their final comment on it. While it might seem like a lot of work, in truth there are only so many myths and they have all been debunked by reference to the known science, so the sks comment would in the main be a link to the myth-busting section. Who knows, the comments in response might assist this site in refining its myth-busting explanations, providing links to the sources, something of an omission currently. If one considers the times people continue to push mis-information, despite being in the mis-informers (should that be ‘myth-informers’?) hall of fame on this site, one wonders just how effective the current policy is.
       Moderator Response: [DB] Note that references to "tribunals" are considered inflammatory on this website.
55578. Daniel Bailey at 21:37 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       I think that most who have actually taken the time to study the literature and to learn for themselves the science would be uncomfortable resting the fate of the planet in the hands of those who obviously have not. Diversion over; let us please return to the OP of this thread, Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation.
55579. kflaux at 21:27 PM on 9 August 2012
       New research from last week 31/2012
       About a line of the "Simulating the effects of methane disaster scenario" paper abstract has been omitted. Starting right after the mention of the "1000-fold methane increase".
55580. Paul D at 21:02 PM on 9 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       There was also research into burying trees (mainly trunks) in the ground to sequester carbon. Don't know if it has been taken any further. It requires the right conditions in the ground to work correctly.
55581. Tom Curtis at 19:56 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Dale @25, as you are uncomfortable with data people whose financial well being depends on high quality data about the frequency of natural disasters, perhaps you will accept data from people whose profession is the scientific study of disaster frequency, specifically, CRED, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. There data base shows changes in frequency of natural disasters, defined as natural events killing at least 10 people, or adversely affecting at least 100 is as follows: (Natural Disasters in the World {No. which Occurred (1900 to 1999)}) Here is the same data from a different source, only this time plotting the number of earthquake related disasters separately as a rough indication of the effects of increased reporting and population density on the data: (Emmanuelle Bournay, UNEP/GRID-Arendal) I believe this also answers your question about whether the 1980s were years of unusually low disaster rates.
55582. Martin Lack at 19:47 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Dale @27 said: "I'm not looking for information on what could happen, but graphs and information on what HAS happened." With the greatest of respect, Dale, that is exactly what Dr James McCarthy presented to the Senate Committee; and which Pielke and McIntyre have willfully sought to bury beneath an avalanche of economic rationalism (a.k.a. obfuscation).
55583. CBDunkerson at 18:31 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Dale, while your reflexive dismissal of all evidence presented to you isn't encouraging, further discussions (with graphs) on extreme weather events can be found in; Hurricanes and global warming More wind, bigger waves Unsettled science Extreme rainfall If you wish to discuss any of the topics in these threads please do so on the linked pages rather than here.
55584. skywatcher at 18:21 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       

       Basically, I'm not looking for information on what could happen, but graphs and information on what HAS happened.

       Perhaps then you need to read the sections labelled "Observed Changes" within Section 3.3 of the SREX report? There's one for each of the major extreme type (e.g. temperature, precipitation). There are also sections labelled "Causes of observed changes". Neither deal with "Projected changes and uncertainties", which are separate. Always good to read the right sections of reports and papers when you're looking for information!
55585. Dale at 17:37 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Skywatcher: Thanks for pointing me in that direction, though having a very quick flick the SREX appears to concentrate on what may happen. That's not what I'm looking for. Though if past observations are in that document (a 5-minute flick didn't locate any though) then I apologise for dismissing the SREX. Basically, I'm not looking for information on what could happen, but graphs and information on what HAS happened.
55586. skywatcher at 17:10 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Dale, perhaps you should start your reading (assuming you've read DB's links) at the IPCC SREX report, linked in the OP. Some of the key statements are already highlighted above:

       "It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale. There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level."

       It may have fewer easy graphs than you'd like, but it broadly supports the graph from Munich Re, and is based on a great deal more literature. Section 3 of the full report is your friend. Did you really think the fate of the planet would be left to insurance companies?
55587. Dale at 16:14 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Whether true or not, I am uncomfortable resting the fate of the planet on an insurance company. Back to my question though, whilst that graph shows from 1980, is there something showing long-term trend? 30 years is hardly indicative, and does not show "normal" conditions pre-GHG temp spike (which really starts around the time of the graph). I suppose what I'm asking is, where is the data/graph to compare what's considered "normal" to what's considered "human-influenced"? For to see a change, you need to know a change from what. How do we know the 80's and 90's weren't quiet years for disasters?
55588. Bernard J. at 15:57 PM on 9 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       At last, an explicit explanation of the thermodynamic silliness that surrounds the notion that anthropogenic sequestration can balance unhindered fossil fuel combustion. I have lost count of how many times I've tried to explain to people that if we could put carbon into the ground at less financial and energetic cost than we obtain from diggin it up and burning it, we could save even more money and energy by not sequestering it in the first place and by reusing the nacently and magically-reduced carbon. As Sarah so aptly notes, it's a belief akin to perpetual motion to imagine that reduced carbon can be sequestered as efficiently as we oxidise it.
55589. Bernard J. at 15:43 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       

       Sorry, call me sceptical (ha) but a graph from only 1980 compiled by an insurance company is not really science.

       "[H]a" indeed. I'm not sure that "sceptical" is the word. No-one said that Munich Re is conducting science. However there is power in their data, and sufficient that it indicates trends in different types of natural disaster. I can't see where anyone's actually inferred numerical levels of probability from these data but parsimony, and the weight of other evidence physically tied to the phenomena, imply which interpretation is mostly likely. When one remains unconvinced counter to the strength of significant parsimonious indication, one is likely exercising something other than scepticism, whether rational or otherwise.
55590. Tom Curtis at 15:28 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Dale @22, fake "skeptics" are fond of saying that various climate scientists would be jailed if they made the claims they did on commercial documents. They are of course wrong, for the various claims were actually accurate - but that is beside the point here. What is directly to the point is that we now see how fake skeptics deal with claims actually made on commercial documents and for which the executives of Munich Re could indeed be jailed if they faked the figures above. Rates of disasters have direct bearing on the commercial viability of Munich Re, and therefore incorrect information about those rates would distort the share price of Munich Re. So there is no question as to the legal liability of Munich Re executives if the above graph was faked. The hypocrisy involved in those who (falsely) criticize climate scientists for not adhering to at least commercial standards of accuracy, and then reject any information from a commercial source because it was not peer reviewed is astonishing. In any event, you are mistaken. The scientists who maintain the Munich Re natural disaster database have published on their methods and findings in the peer reviewed literature.
55591. Dale at 15:00 PM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Roger @21 Sorry, call me sceptical (ha) but a graph from only 1980 compiled by an insurance company is not really science. I've seen the ACE graph and also tornado graphs showing no change over time (except an increase in tiny tornadoes due to increased detection technology). But is there anything really out there showing observed occurrences increasing? From what I understand (and read from the linked articles above) it's still really a "may/will" topic. The argument just isn't convincing enough IMO.
       Moderator Response:

       [DB] If you wish to contest the Munich Re data, they are covered by this SkS post here.

       Denying things because they don't fit preconceived conclusions is not really science.

55592. atcook27 at 13:13 PM on 9 August 2012
       Sequestering carbon nature's way: in coal beds
       If you were to ask a 10 year old to solve the climate change problem the not so bright ones would come up with CCS technology. "I know we'll capture the CO2 from the smoke stacks of power stations, compress it to a high pressure liquid, pipe it 100's of kilometers and pump it underground. Where it will never, ever, ever leak out!" The stuff of fairy tails.
55593. vrooomie at 13:09 PM on 9 August 2012
       ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
       Colorado, as of 8/8/12: 55 days of 90F+ temps (2nd longest run in CO history), and August is still not half over. It's the hottest July ~ever~ here, and we're down by more than half for yearly precip, which in a good year *averages* 28 cm. The deniers/fake skeptics are beginning to sweat, methinks...;) Though, it's the first time I've ever seen *weeds* die because of drought.
55594. Roger D at 11:02 AM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Dale - I searched but didn't find it, but there was such a graph compiled by or for the re-insurance company Munich Re that was the topic of an SkS article in the not too distant past.
       Moderator Response:

       [DB] A copy can be found here:

       

55595. Dale at 10:22 AM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Just a question, but there's all this stuff about climate change increasing extreme weather events/intensity. Being a "graph" person, is there any graph of observations (for example from 1950-2012) showing an increase in extreme weather events/intensity? Or is everything so far "it may/will"?
       Moderator Response: [DB] Various posts can be found here, here, here and here. Another is being formulated and is in the review phase.
55596. skywatcher at 10:07 AM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       I would like to ask Roger Pielke Jr one simple question: In the light of evidence presented above that you have often blurred the distinction between extreme events and extreme losses, and being critically mindful of the distinction between the two ... Do you agree with the IPCC SREX report's assessment of the increase in extremes of temperature and precipitation?
55597. vrooomie at 09:35 AM on 9 August 2012
       Pielke Jr and McIntyre Assist Christy's Extreme Weather Obfuscation
       Sphaerica@17: Though I tend to agree with you, I would hope that any snark, be it from one of 'the learneds,' or from the peanut gallery, wouldn't/won't make Roger actually not want to come back, and cogently discuss the science. I'd like to think (fallible a human as am I) that SkS is better than the ad hom climate blogs. Now, if he never comes back... Say no more...;)
55598. VictorVenema at 07:56 AM on 9 August 2012
       Surface Temperature Measurements: Time of observation bias and its correction
       Next to the time of observation bias post, I now wrote an introduction to statistical homogenisation with lots of pictures. Some more ammunition for when Watts revised his manuscript, which is taking a pleasant long time. I hope that some background information can make the (upcoming) discussions more productive.
55599. shoyemore at 07:53 AM on 9 August 2012
       Extreme heat becoming more likely under climate change
       John Neilson-Gammon also has problems with the "20 times more likely" estimate, but JNG's comments are unlikely to make it onto WUWT. He reckons the "20 times" is a fudge factor, and "distinctly more probable" would be a more scientific way of saying it. If he is right, the press release exaggerated the original paper somewhat, though one would presume the authors approved the press release. http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2012/07/twenty-times-more-likely-not-the-local-media-2/
55600. michael sweet at 07:10 AM on 9 August 2012
       ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
       The United States National Climate Data Center released their monthly report for the Continental United States (CONUS)(the global report is issued around the 17th of the month). July 2012 is the hottest month ever measured in the CONUS. Anyone who says the 1930's or 50's were hotter is wrong. The last 12 months are the hottest 12 months ever measured. Forecast: continuing hot and dry. The amount of the US rated as in drought is still lower than the peak of the 30's and 50's droughts, but drought continues to expand. Hopefully they will get some rain before it kills all the trees.

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