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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 55751 to 55800:

  1. IPCC is alarmist
    'Interesting. I wasn't aware of those ten grey literature citations in WG1. However I've tallied up the citations in the first 3 chapters of WG1 and there's 1745 citations in those chapters alone. So the grey literature citations make up less than 1% of the first 3 chapters of WG 1. This shows that krisbaum's claim is total bunk, but I may as well tally up the rest of the citations and show the relative percentage. ' wher are you getting your numbers from? My posts got deleted because I didnt provide relevant evidence.
  2. IPCC is alarmist
    Tom; thats news to me! I havent seen that section before. Thanks! Here's what Pachauri has been saying--> “People can have confidence in the IPCC’s conclusions…Given that it is all on the basis of peer-reviewed literature.” – Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC chairman, June 2008 “The IPCC doesn’t do any research itself. We only develop our assessments on the basis of peer-reviewed literature.” – Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC chairman, June 2007 “This is based on peer-reviewed literature. That’s the manner in which the IPCC functions. We don’t pick up a newspaper article and, based on that, come up with our findings.” – Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC chairman, June 2008 i dont think i will write anything more to respond, all the links/evidence I give just gets deleted. Good luck with your climate studies.
  3. IPCC is alarmist
    To add to Tom's comment, the following passages are from the June AR5 WG1 Progress Report: "The IPCC provides governments with a clear scientific view of the current state of knowledge about climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation, through regular assessments of the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information published worldwide. These assessments are policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive." (emphasis mine) and "Working Group I, which covers the physical science of climate change, received 21,400 comments from 659 experts worldwide in the expert review of its first order draft, which ran from 16 December 2011 to 10 February 2012. Working Group I authors are now considering these comments, as they work on the second order draft, which will be available for expert and government review from 5 October to 30 November 2012."
  4. IPCC is alarmist
    Krisbaum, the with regard to the IPCC AR4 Working Group 2 report, the IPCC states:
    "The Working Group II Fourth Assessment, in common with all IPCC reports, has been produced through an open and peer-reviewed process. It builds upon past assessments and IPCC Special Reports, and incorporates the results of the past 5 years of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Each chapter presents a balanced assessment of the literature which has appeared since the Third Assessment Report[1] (TAR), including non-English language and, where appropriate, ‘grey’ literature."
    (My emphasis) Your thesis that the IPCC claims to not use grey literature is, therefore, clearly false. The IPCC has clearly delineated procedures for the use of grey literature. Clearly you are arguing a straw man. If you would actually like to address the issue of the quality of references used by showing scientific flaws in the references that have made it into the reports, you might have something interesting to discuss. As it stands your are simply trying to denigrate the reports by innuendo.
  5. IPCC is alarmist
    Interesting. I wasn't aware of those ten grey literature citations in WG1. However I've tallied up the citations in the first 3 chapters of WG1 and there's 1745 citations in those chapters alone. So the grey literature citations make up less than 1% of the first 3 chapters of WG 1. This shows that krisbaum's claim is total bunk, but I may as well tally up the rest of the citations and show the relative percentage.
  6. IPCC is alarmist
    As someone who has been yelled at several times (and gotten over it) for doing the same thing you've just done, I must point out that it is possible to write better, more to-the-point posts. Give your thesis and supply the evidence. Don't dance around with insinuations and "look there! uh-huh . . . wink wink."
  7. IPCC is alarmist
    Leave it, DB! No statement could better cap off the pointless exercise that krisbaum has just performed. I think krisbaum thinks s/he is special for having had posts deleted. If so, we're all special.
  8. IPCC is alarmist
    Right, krisbaum, and I am asking you if you think the PhD theses lack quality because they haven't been peer-review by journal reviewers for a journal. Have they been reviewed by experts? If you've been through a PhD defense, then you know the answer. It's entirely possible that the review was performed by scientists who do review work for journals. And I am quite certain that the IPCC reviewers didn't simply accept the theses as the equal of peer-reviewed, published work. The IPCC has used grey literature. They point this out themselves. What is your point? Do you have a hypothesis to share with the group?
  9. IPCC is alarmist
    [DB] Um, no. - please be a bit more specific? Um no to what exactly?
    Moderator Response: [DB] Read the linked post, which documents that in detail.
  10. IPCC is alarmist
    DSL- my original point was that the IPCC does not produce a report solely on peer reviewed literature. It advertises the fact that it does - agreed? Its not whether the science is good or bad in the grey literature, you cannot tell the world your report is only based on peer reviewed literature - when in fact it isnt.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Your citations are insufficient because you fail to demonstrate for each which specific portions of WG1 they are based on and why the reference you cite fully fulfills the role of citation for that section.

    Simply copy-pasting from fake-skeptic sources is insufficient. It is incumbent upon you to demonstrate the relevance of each source you cite to support your extraordinary claim.

  11. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum, you assign blanket mistrust to the category "grey literature." I guess you assume that because the PhD thesis was not published, it must not be trustworthy. Something must be "wrong" with it. You should let the thesis committees for these individuals know that you've caught on to their fraud. What is your assessment of these pieces of "grey" literature? Are they good science? PhD theses/dissertations are not published for a variety of reasons.
  12. IPCC is alarmist
    the above are referred to as grey literature because they are; '"information produced on all levels of government, academics, business and industry in electronic and print formats not controlled by commercial publishing" ie. where publishing is not the primary activity of the producing body." (ICGL Luxembourg definition, 1997 - Expanded in New York, 2004)'
  13. IPCC is alarmist
    a reference from WG1 that is from a grey source; Jiang, Y.D., 2005: The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China during the Last 50 Years, and the Possible Future Changes. PhD Thesis, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China Academy of Science, Beijing, 137 pp.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Um, no. This citation is covered by this SkS post here.
  14. IPCC is alarmist
    a reference from WG1 that is from a grey source; Vérant, S., 2004: Etude des Dépressions sur l’Europe de l’Ouest : Climat Actuel et Changement Climatique. PhD thesis, Université Paris VI, Paris, France, 204 pp.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Which portion of WG1 specifically? And why do you think this is a "grey" source (your comments still do not specifically comply, but this becomes tedious)? More is required than merely furnishing a source lacking a link.
  15. Daniel Bailey at 12:28 PM on 4 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    As an FYI, you are not complying with this site's Comments Policy; specifically, this section:
    "No link or picture only. Any link or picture should be accompanied by text summarizing both the content of the link or picture, and showing how it is relevant to the topic of discussion. Failure to do both of these things will result in the comment being considered off topic."
    Which has resulted in your two three most several recent comments being deleted. You have elected to assign yourself the task of showing which section of WG1 is based on grey literature. Please proceed to do so.
  16. IPCC is alarmist
    'Don't expect SkS readers to fossick around in that mess. Cite one portion from WG1 that is based on 'grey literature.' ' I already cited on Rob http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21940-climate-panel-adopts-controversial-grey-evidence.html
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Do you understand the distinctions between WG1, WG2 and WG3? Your link (essentially a newspaper article/blog post) deals with WG2, not WG1.

    Again, you asserted that the whole IPCC report, which includes WG1, was based on grey literature.

    Try again.

  17. IPCC is alarmist
    'Rob, I think it would fairer to suggest the krisbaum is reading frothing-at-mouth denialist sites and prefers to believe what he is told there.' I think its a little unfair you can write such things about me - I havent been nasty to anybody here.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] "I havent been nasty to anybody here"

    Actually, your very first comment in this forum contained sufficient vitriol towards a regular member of this forum that the entire comment necessitated immediate deletion. Nevertheless, can all participants exercise more discretion in their comment formulations, please?

  18. IPCC is alarmist
    Rob, I think it would fairer to suggest the krisbaum is reading frothing-at-mouth denialist sites and prefers to believe what he is told there. krisbaum, you are implying lead authors have "vested interests" in results. What is the basis of this belief? By the way, I would be perfectly happy for Exxon staff to be reviewing and writing what they would so long as they are Exxon's scientists. I am oil man. By your interpretation of the world, I should be a rabid anti-AGW activist because AGW threatens my current position. In fact, I mostly find widespread acceptance of the IPCC conclusions among my colleagues and client's scientists.
  19. IPCC is alarmist
    Don't expect SkS readers to fossick around in that mess. Cite one portion from WG1 that is based on 'grey literature.' If you're familiar with the details it won't take long. We're waiting.............
  20. IPCC is alarmist
    How about showing us a portion in WG1 (the scientific basis) that is based on 'grey literature.' Failure to do so will lead to the inescapable conclusion you simply made that up.
  21. IPCC is alarmist
    DB - i cant furnish your request unless I know what your interpretation of 'reputable' is ????
    Moderator Response: [DB] Either something like a commentary paper in a peer-reviewed journal or showing directly which section of WG1 was based on which specific piece of grey literature. It was your statement; it is incumbent upon you to be able to furnish documentation supporting it...or to withdraw the assertion.
  22. Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    Just saw this little gem over at WUWT: Ric Werme says: August 3, 2012 at 1:58 pm ........... It might be interesting to take pre and post homogenized data and see how that displays and analyzes. Is there anyone here who can help this poor guy out? ;)
  23. IPCC is alarmist
    'To suggest that government should not be involved is absurd. ' Thats correct, the government should not be involved in generating the report. Like I mentioned before, do you have the police judging their own court cases? Do you have the government enforcing their own laws? We have separate entities for a reason. 'what like the scientists of the world? That was the idea in drawing up the IPCC. Who do you propose should do this audit? the uninformed?' Its pretty easy to find people that have no vested interests in the IPCC's conclusions. You dont need to audit what the auditors write - you just need a cross-check from another external party. Over a 3rd of their sources are grey like i mentioned, yet Pachauri declares all sources 'peer reviewed literature'. So he says one thing and does another. Let it be clear the shortfallings of the report, or enforce your standards. Grey literature is used throughout the whole IPCC report. The fact you admit there was grey literature is enlightening. Dont you therefore see it a problem Pachauri tells everybody that its peer reviewed when its not?
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] "Grey literature is used throughout the whole IPCC report."

    Please provide a link to a reputable source that documents the usage of such literature in WG1, or, failing that, provide a link to that portion of WG1 in question and to the grey literature on which it was based. Note that fake-skeptic blogs are not reputable.

    Failure to provide such a link will result in further moderation of your comments here.

  24. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum at 10:23 AM on 4 August, 2012 Actually, you have made my day. Thanks. I think these news broke here at SkS too but I somehow missed it. And ok, you realize the police/judge/offender juxtaposition was a bit too much. Thank you again for being this open minded. So your main criticism is that the process does not garantee the quality of the information. You even imply that it has vested interests, and is therefore biased (correct me if I read too much from your comment). I will set aside for a moment the fact that it is painfully and repeatedly reviewed by thousands of scientists from all over the world before publication - including countries that make great efforts afterwards to ignore it in pratice. After 22 years, we have had time to check some of the main projections, and they are basically right. Even too conservative sometimes (sea level rise). Where would you say the report missed the point and got carried away by its "bias"? (it's bedtime here in Brazil, so see you tomorrow)
  25. IPCC is alarmist
    "You have countless IPCC staff who are inexperienced scientists and not experts. They determine what to include and what to not include from the science - and that doesnt just mean peer reviewed". The IPCC doesnt have countless staff - it has next to none. The review decision is by lead authors who are not IPCC staff and are chosen as the experts in their field.
  26. IPCC is alarmist
    Krisbaum - governments govern. That's what they do. They do it will if their policy is well-informed. To suggest that government should not be involved is absurd. They requested the report. Yes, the editors make their decisions but every decision is transparent. Which one do you agree with. You want audit by others with no vested interests - what like the scientists of the world? That was the idea in drawing up the IPCC. Who do you propose should do this audit? the uninformed? And whose choses the auditors? And would you then demand audit of the auditors if you still didnt like the answer. Note that "grey literature" was only used by WG2 in the absence of any other. However, you are challenging WG1 but so far I dont see a basis for that.
  27. IPCC is alarmist
    *if it wasnt for these people we'd have polluted water, rivers and probably be dead by now.
  28. IPCC is alarmist
    DSL; There is no error in my analysis - the problem is much wider than 'a few erros and loose practices'. You have countless IPCC staff who are inexperienced scientists and not experts. They determine what to include and what to not include from the science - and that doesnt just mean peer reviewed, they also include other grey literature. Something like 1/3 of the references in the last report are grey literature - WWF reports, Greenpeace, news, un-peer reviewed.. etc.. If you believe this kind of working practice is acceptable then fair enough, I on the other hand think its not. The world needs people who believe and are passionate. I have no problem with activists, climate activists or environmentalists - on the contrary - if it wasnt for some of these people, but - you have to consider people's vested interests and take precautions to make sure those interests dont get in the way. It would be like the IPCC obtained funding and had 1/3 of its staff filled with Exxon employees. What would you think then?
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] "You have countless IPCC staff who are inexperienced scientists and not experts."

    Participants here are not allowed to simply make things up as they please. You will need to furnish source citations for extravagant claims such as this. Else moderators will intervene.

  29. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum: "My suggestion is that, considering the report produced by the IPCC is being used to decide one of the most critical fates of humanity - spending trillions on alternative energy in effect - there could be an external policing of their processes." This represents a fundamental error in analysis on your part, krisbaum. The IPCC ARs gather the existing science and integrate it into a readable summary. If the IPCC did not exist, the science would still be there saying the same thing, and the probable outcomes would be just the same (or arguably worse). You imply the IPCC is a bad idea and subject to corruption. I say not having the IPCC is a worse idea. I can imagine a version of the IPCC that is worse than nothing at all, but the current form is far, far from that. I agree that the process can improve, but I fail to see how a few errors and loose practices (recognized and in correction) are justification for condemning the whole process. You also seem to assume that all of the regular SkS posters bow before the IPCC and are oblivious to its problems. No. In fact, they are so aware, from having to explain it daily, that they know where practice is sound and where it needs work. It is a large project with many aspects. It does inform the world, and it does a much better job than individuals trying to piece together the science and then explain it and the implications to the world.
  30. IPCC is alarmist
    Michael Sweet; ' In fact, the governments of oil producing countries, with help from the USA, diluted the conclusions of the scientists in the SPM. Your suggestion that the IPCC is alarmist is backwards, it reduces the conclusions to make AGW seem less of a problem' Well, this alarms me just as much as the opposite. No government should have their hands in diluting or concentrating such a report. Its my point exactly. At least we agree that politics is getting in the way ;).
  31. IPCC is alarmist
    Alexandre, It is here in Australia - the IPCC is quoted as the definitive place to go to for climate change science/recommendations. It was pivotal in the stern report brought out in the UK, and without it there wouldnt be a Carbon Tax in Australia. I think the police analogy came across wrong. What I mean is, they produce a report but there is no external auditor or group of people that have no vested interests, scrutinising the report and how its generated. So Alexandre - ther's your meaningful example - the Carbon Tax in Australia.
  32. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum at 10:08 AM on 4 August, 2012 Actually, 1)it's not really being used in practice 2) and governments struggle to ignore it, instead of convinceing themselves, let alone anyone else but that's beside the point. They gather information from openly available sources. Certainly not the offender, or judge, or police officer of the world. "Ignored scientific comittee" would be closer to the mark, I guess. If you disagree, could you please make my day and point to any meaningful measure to cut down emissions that has actually been taken? With or without the IPCC's report help?
  33. IPCC is alarmist
    Oh and this New Scientist article talks a little bit about the use of grey references (reference to un-peer reviewed sources and other grey literature). http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21940-climate-panel-adopts-controversial-grey-evidence.html
  34. IPCC is alarmist
    Alexandre; They produce the report used by governments to convince the world about global warming & the science behind what we know at present. It has to be one of the most important documents on the planet at present. It is used to decide the fate of trillions of dollars of investment through carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes.
  35. IPCC is alarmist
    sorry guys i'd love to communicate more, but the moderator keeps 'snipping' my views
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Comments constructed to comply with the Comments Policy never need moderation. Comments in violation of it, such as yours, invite moderation. As do complaints about moderation.

    This is a moderated forum in which the science of climate research and climate change is discussed. The no-holds-barred, anything-goes discussions commonplace on fake-skeptic blogs have no place here. FYI.

    Moderation complaints struck out.

  36. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum at 09:49 AM on 4 August, 2012 Man... you imply the IPCC is doubling as police force and judge?! For a crime they commited?! What kind of power do you think the IPCC has, besides gathering scientific papers and putting them together in a report?
  37. IPCC is alarmist
    Michael; And to reply to your final part. My suggestion is that, considering the report produced by the IPCC is being used to decide one of the most critical fates of humanity - spending trillions on alternative energy in effect - there could be an external policing of their processes. I'm sure you can work out for yourself how this could work in the future - the rest of the world seem to be capable of such ideas - take law enforcement and the state for example. Do you see judges doubling as policemen and appearing on their own jury for a crime they've been accused of?
  38. IPCC is alarmist
    'The SPM is reviewed word by word by representatives of all the countries. It is released in advance so that anyone interested can read it and develop their arguments (the draft of the scientific report is already on line for review when the SPM is written). Are you suggesting that the Bush Administration did not look out for oil interests and keep in mind the deniers arguments in this word by word review? ' Micheal Sweet; The point is; they hold a plenary with politicians and together create the SPM for release into the world before the main report has been released!!! How can the summary be validated against the main report or scrutinised correctly by external scientists? (-Snip-) (-Snip-).
    Moderator Response: [DB] All-caps usage (forbidden) converted to bold; moderation complaints and sloganeering snipped.
  39. IPCC is alarmist
    Tom Curtis; Greenland aerosol measurements tell you nothing, it is fairly common knowledge that aerosols do not travel far from their source typically 10km or so. You need localised measurements to get any kind of global pattern. Michael Sweet; 'The entire IPCC report is put online for comments before the final review. ' Yes it is, but the final version is the responsibility of authors, and they declare what changes will be incorporated into the final version and which wont. Sure here's an example of appointing non-experts; http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/richardk/ Richard Klein .. An IPCC Lead Author at the age of 25 - back in 1994 after completing a geology degree 2 years prior. at 28 he was promoted to the most senior role - Coordinating Lead Author..
  40. The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
    Falkenherz: 1) The mass balance argument is an inductive, not a deductive argument. That is, its premises can be correct and its conclusion false. 2) The same is true of the other nine arguments I presented leading to the same conclusion. This is true both separately and conjointly. 3) The same is also true for the various arguments that the Sun rather than the Earth is at the center of the Solar System, that Relativistic, not Aristotelian, mechanics govern the behaviour of bodies, and indeed, that the Earth is not flat. 4) The question of interest is not whether the truism that scientific evidence is not deductive is true, but whether an alternative explanation to anthropogenic emissions as the dominant cause of the increase in atmospheric CO2 can be found. Any such explanation must be more elegant than the anthropogenic explanation otherwise it is a worse explanation and should be rejected. The alternative explanation should also make novel falsifiable predictions, and not resort to magical thinking (such as relying on physical sorting mechanisms that can distinguish between CO2 molecules which are physically identical, but have a different origin). No such alternative explanation has ever been proposed. Deniers have not even come close to proposing one. The nearest they have come is to propose an alternative that explains just one aspect of the evidence and rigorously ignores all other evidence and which makes no novel empirical predictions. Every proposed denier explanation I have seen has been contradicted by known facts, and makes fewer empirical predictions than does the theory of the anthropogenic cause of the increase in CO2 concentration. Frankly, I have seen more coherent and better worked out theories of geocentrism than any theory of natural increase in CO2 proposed by deniers.
  41. The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
    Falkenherz, ok yes a 'magical CO2 sink that absorbs 100% of human CO2 emissions and 0% of natural emissions' could 'disprove' the mass balance argument. However, even if it weren't inherently impossible... it would be contradicted by half a dozen other lines of evidence. That is, if a magical human CO2 sink existed then the strong correlation between human CO2 emissions and atmospheric accumulations (both in timing and rate) would be anomalous. Likewise, the C12/C13/C14 ratio changes indicate that fossil fuels are the source of the atmospheric increase... which would be odd if a magical sink were removing all the fossil fuel carbon. Et cetera. So even if we allow for one 'leprechaun' to invalidate the mass balance argument we'd still need to throw in a pixie, a couple of unicorns, and a bandersnatch in order for it to hold up in the face of the other evidence. 'It is not technically impossible'... well, no... but you'd have to be crazy to think otherwise.
  42. Surface Temperature Measurements: Time of observation bias and its correction
    Thank you Bob. You are right, it is a short 4-page letter. I have corrected this on my blog and also made the doi link more user friendly. I hope an admin can do the same here.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Updated post accordingly.
  43. The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
    Falkenherz: A sink that only reacts to fossil, not natural CO2 is not speculation - it's fantasy. When the the CO2 from this "natural" source has the exact same characteristics (isotope ratios, O2 reduction, etc., which are required as a result of the other evidence) as the fossil source, how is the natural sink supposed to know to suck up the fossil CO2 and not the natural source? "Not very probable" is in the rhealm of "when monkeys fly out of my butt".
  44. The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
    Ah, sorry, maybe I should have mentioned that I continue that same discussion from under a different article ("human fingerprint"), where a comment relayed me to this article here.
  45. Surface Temperature Measurements: Time of observation bias and its correction
    Minor correction: the last reference should be Geophysical Research Letters, not Journal of Geophysical Research. It's wrong on the original web page. Volume number, etc. are OK, and DOI leads to the correct spot (if it's an exact copy of the original web page).
  46. The Independence of Global Warming on Residence Time of CO2
    John thanks for the nice link, it always good to talk in pictures. KR, CBDunkerson, the flexible sink would react only to fossil, not to natural CO2 input. That is where I would map the analogy. E.g. because of a yet unknown mechanism, sinks are taking up fossil sources faster than from natural sources, and in place of fossil CO2, the increase in atmosphere really comes from some more arbitrary methane belching. This is of course speculation, as there is no knowledge about something like this, and I only do this in order to understand sceptics like Julian. It is sort of an "maybe we don´t know everything about it" point, which you can never ever totally deny. Your response here is, well, we do know a lot and nothing makes this kind of speculation very probable. E.g. the mechanism of oceans' uptake could be not so selective that it would priority-process the fossil CO2; the increase is proportional to increased fossil output so that breaking that obvious connection would require more than just abstract speculation; etc. That´s why I agree, it is indeed about LGM or Leprechauns. But who knows, maybe they are real, anyways... ;)
  47. Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
    Ah, this is a pity... I had to suffer through the whole video and argue with sceptics about his ridiculous claims all by myself, because I did not find this website in time... For me this shows that either Nobelpreis can sometimes be given to the wrong persons, or Nobelpreis really says nothing about the winner's personal scientific integrity.
  48. Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
    With tongue firmly in cheek, and full credit to Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal and to "Jeremy" on Realclimate for pointing this out: The Life Cycle of Physicists
  49. Surface Temperature Measurements: Time of observation bias and its correction
    Good to see this post by Victor given additional visibility by reposting it here ...
  50. BEST Results Consistent with Human-Caused Global Warming
    C02 at near 400ppm is totally not acceptable- and we are near that now- though the effects of this are 25 years away- what we are seeing now is C02 just past 350ppm. The weather extremes in years to come will become worse- far worse. How society is able to hold up to an increasing erratic climate is an unknown. But it is likely to be chaotic. Over the long haul we we are likely to see C02 near 650ppm- perhaps higher and at least 3.5 degrees C in warming over the PI era- we will not see 350ppm again for at least a thousand years- perhaps longer.

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