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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 57951 to 58000:

  1. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    MarkR @1 - yes we certainly can't tease out the exact effects of the carbon pricing system on the RGGI states' economies. However, as noted in the post, the contrarians like Monckton and the Koch brothers have said that these types of systems will spell doom for the economies of whatever states and countries implement them. That is pure alarmism, as RGGI demonstrates. Of course as with all climate myths, the fact that it is disproven by reality won't stop the contrarians from continuing to make the argument.
  2. Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
    Hi Tom @5, Yes, that is a good read and exposes more of the errors and misrepresentations in Easterbrook's talk. It is hardly a surprise that shoddy "science" is being presented at Heartland "climate" conferences, but still importnant to document.
  3. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    John, technically yes... but in reality most retirees pay no income tax because the deductions are greater than the tax which would be due. The exceptions are usually cases where some other form of income is still coming in. Also, most states do not subject social security returns to income tax.
  4. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    CB Dunkerson: In the US, retirement income, including social security, is subject to federal and state income taxes. In the US, the majority of adults do not belong to a political party.
  5. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    MarkR, I think I can safely say that most of the American people aren't paying enough attention to be insulted. Last year the GOP came out with a bit about half of all Americans paying no taxes (really income taxes, but they always seem to forget to include that word). It was a big deal with angry rants on major 'news' programs. I felt horribly embarrassed for the retirees brought on the shows to denounce these "filthy leeches"... not realizing that they constituted the majority of the people in question (i.e. they're retired... they have no income... ergo no income tax). The vast majority of Americans have no idea what is going on and just accept whatever their chosen party tells them... even when that is directly at odds with what the party was telling them last year. Thus, the fact that reality proves the 'carbon pricing will destroy the economy' claims to be complete nonsense doesn't really matter. A good deal of what the people who believe that hold to be true is complete nonsense. They aren't about to change now.
  6. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    In the US the fossil fuel lobby has been saying that any climate action would be too expensive and ruin the economy. Since the US was recently around 20 tons CO2 per person and European nations around 10 tons (France ~6 and UK ~10 iirc?) the argument from the lobbyists is basically 'America is so incompetent compared to Europe that if we gave ourselves 30 years to match what they're already doing, it would destroy America!' Which is ridiculous, America isn't the useless incompetent country that the lobbyists are trying to persuade the people & politicians it is. I'm surprised the American people aren't more insulted.
  7. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    I think the important thing we can take from this is that these data aren't enough to say whether the policy cost x% or had benefits of x%. the alarmist claims about demolishing economies are obviously far wrong.
  8. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    Perhaps Knorr et al, 2011 will help put the above article in perspective:
    "Proxy records from the Miocene epoch (∼23-5 Ma) indicate a warmer climate than today in spite of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the range of preindustrial levels. As yet the simulation of a warm Miocene climate with these low CO2 values has proven to be a challenge. In this study we present climate simulations of the Late Miocene (11-7 Ma) with a preindustrial CO2 level, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The simulated global mean surface temperature of ∼17.8 °C represents a significantly warmer climate than today. We have analyzed the relative importance of tectonic and vegetation changes as forcing factors. We find that the strongest temperature increase is due to the Late Miocene vegetation distribution, which is more than three times stronger than the impact induced by tectonic alterations. Furthermore, a combination of both forcing factors results in a global temperature increase which is lower than the sum of the individual forcing effects. Energy balance estimates suggest that a reduction in the planetary albedo and a positive water vapor feedback in a warmer atmosphere are the dominating mechanisms to explain the temperature increase. Each of these factors contributes about one half to the global temperature rise of ∼3 K. Our results suggest that a much warmer climate during the Late Miocene can be reconciled with CO2 concentrations similar to preindustrial values."
    Also, for reference, here is the abstract of the article referred to by the OP.
  9. Rob Honeycutt at 10:39 AM on 11 June 2012
    Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    Martin @ 7... CO2 is the "biggest" control knob, not the only control knob.
  10. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    Point of clarification:
    "The Miocene is a geological epoch of the Neogene Period and extends from about 23.03 to 5.332 million years ago (Ma). The Miocene was named by Sir Charles Lyell. Its name comes from the Greek words μείων (meiōn, “less”) and καινός (kainos, “new”) and means "less recent" because it has 18% fewer modern sea invertebrates than the Pliocene. The Miocene follows the Oligocene Epoch and is followed by the Pliocene Epoch. The Miocene is the first epoch of the Neogene Period. The earth went from the Oligocene Epoch through the Miocene and into the Pliocene as it cooled into a series of Ice Ages. The Miocene boundaries are not marked by a single distinct global event but consist rather of regional boundaries between the warmer Oligocene and the cooler Pliocene. The plants and animals of the Miocene were fairly modern. Mammals and birds were well-established. Whales, seals, and kelp spread. The Miocene Epoch is of particular interest to geologists and palaeoclimatologists as major phases of Himalayan Uplift had occurred during the Miocene Epoch affecting monsoonal patterns in the Asia, which were interlinked with Northern Hemisphere glaciation."
    Source: Wikipedia
    Moderator Response: TC: When quoting another source, quoted text should be enclosed in inverted commas and marked of from other text by indenting (using the [blockquote][/blockquote] command. This post has been edited to comply with this standard.
  11. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Dana: think of how many papers Michaels could have gotten published elsewhere if there wasn't a conspiracy against him! Seven per journal, dozens and dozens of journals. ;-)
  12. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    The study explains a wider local effect in a narrow period some 12 million years ago. So what? Interesting is the clue about the increased sensitivity which has been stromg for more than 500,000 years. More important: For more than 20 million years the planet hasn't shown higher CO2 concentrations than the rapidely rising current ones. At that stage earth was about six Celsius warmer!
  13. New research from last week 20/2012
    Perhaps this should be edited in light of the recent developments in the Gergis paper.
  14. kampmannpeine at 05:32 AM on 11 June 2012
    Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    @1 Dave - I am eagerly awaiting the future denialists (in Europe) commenting on that finding ... we'll see
  15. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Ah but Bob, while the pals got a great many papers published in CR during this timeframe, they were also able to get papers published elsewhere. Michaels for example got 7 published in CR and 7 published in other journals at the same time.
  16. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    I always thought that CO2 was the control knob. This is the first time I've heard that other factors play a major role in determining global temperature. Does the Nature article explain why the thermocline was so deep at the time? How would the ocean circulation have to change to make our modern world cooler?
  17. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Although I also agree with John, Tom, and Dana, I can also imagine that the De Freitas et al group think that their collusion just represents an example of how thorough the "establishment" conspiracy against them was - only by setting up their own "non-biased" editor at a journal outside the clutches of the mainstream scientists could they succeed at getting their "brilliance" published. When you view things as a conspiracy, it's easy to reject any "evidence" that disagrees with your world view. To paraphrase from Monty Python's The Oscar Wilde Sketch, De Freitas et al probably think that their papers "shine out like a shaft of gold when all around is dark", when most everyone else in the climate scientist community recognizes that they are "like a stream of bat's piss".
  18. Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
    Gareth Renowden, who has tracked down many of Easterbrook's other shonky claims has now made a forthright analysis of Easterbrook's latest claims. Well worth a read.
  19. Rob Painting at 17:10 PM on 10 June 2012
    Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    Sailrick - what do your contrarian adversaries think is happening to all those fossil fuel emissions? The simplest counter-argument is that carbon isotope ratios reveal that the CO2 cannot be coming from a volcanic source. See SkS post: Comparing CO2 emissions to CO2 levels. Dave123- the problem I have with the article is that it is not enlightening. Earth's climate was certainly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration before the Miocene, and afterwards. What was so special about the Miocene? The article doesn't help in clearing this up.
  20. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    sailrick http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm
    Moderator Response: TC: Link made live.
  21. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    I suppose you can respond- 1) that an explanation of the differences was offered (does the full paper indicate that models were applied and failed without basic changes in heat distribution assignments and ocean current patterns...but succeeded when adjusted?) and 2) It's not comforting that it was hotter with lower CO2...that just makes the current increases scarier. But the people grasping at those straws aren't good listeners or thinkers. When the science is resolved on this, count on another myth surviving all attempts to put a stake through its heart.
  22. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    This is off topic, but I keep seeing skeptic comments on the internet, that say volcanoes below the sea are where CO2 is coming from. Is there a post that covers that?
  23. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    Dave123: I've already seen it used just that way.
  24. Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
    This is fascinating. But I can't help thinking that fake skeptics will seize upon this genuine inquiry as another means of saying "See, Climate Scientists can't explain something so we don't know what's going on now"
  25. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Tom Curtis @16 - I agree, the fact that the pal's CR submissions began when de Freitas started at the journal, dried up after he left, and that he handled the majority of their CR submissions, is pretty damning evidence.
  26. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Without going into the detailed research that John Mashey did, what is most damning to me is the fact that the pals began frequent submissions to Climate Research only on the appointment of Chris De Freitas as Associate Editor, directed their submissions almost exclusively to him, and ceased submissions after their "gig" was discovered. That pattern seems to indicate clearly that they did not think their articles could were worthy of publication, and would need De Freitas to shepherd their articles through peer review. It also strongly suggest that they new before submission that De Freitas would do exactly that. Tellingly, fake "skeptic" accusations of "pal review" are never accompanied by evidence of such selective submission patterns.
  27. Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
    Note that a SkS contributor emailed this post to Easterbrook, so he should now be aware that his IPCC-related assertions are factually wrong. It appears he has declined to comment on the post or respond to the email, however.
  28. Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
    actually thoughtful @13 - it's a good point that right now when unemployment is high is exactly the right time to be funding infrastructure projects like the transition to renewable energy for the overall benefit of the economy.
  29. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    dana1981 added the nice graph to visualize the connections, as opposed to proving anything. I would be happy to hear critiques of my original paper's research, by informed readers who: a) Read my entire paper. b) Read all the red-labeled papers (ones labeled A-U) c) Read the rest of the de Freitas-reviewed papers, a-m d) At least read the abstracts of the rest. The spreadsheet was published, listing ~700 papers, all with URLs. e) Having done that, feel free to argue with my categorizations,i.e., columns D and E, especially of those marked in red. I do not claim these are perfect, and of course I'd be especially interested if anyone finds appears that deserve to be red, or argue informedly that a red one deserve not to be. f) Then, pick a random dozen or two of the non-categorized articles edited by people other than Davis or Khandekar, evaluate them in the same way as I did, and categorize them in the same way as I did, with notes like mine on pp.9-14.
  30. The 5 characteristics of scientific denialism
    In "Update 16 April 2012" at article's end, the link to "article written by Mark and Chris Hoofnagle" is incorrect (http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about.php) and should be http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about/ as it is given for the phrase "first suggested by Mark and Chris Hoofnagle" at the end of the article's second paragraph.
  31. Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
    Re: "... a pro-Mitt Romney (the US Republican Party 2012 presidential nominee) editorial ..." Romney is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee because of the delegates he's accumulated in state primary elections, but cannot be the official nominee until the Republican National Convention, at the end of August, makes him so.
  32. Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
    Alex, Did you miss/misunderstood that "ostrich thing"? Watch it again, then. It does not say "Don't be an Ostrich" but "How to talk to an ostrich". I think proverbial "ostriches" are those who never take their heads out of the sand. Sure, they will not understand that series, possibly even dig the heads deeper. An example is Fred Singer with his mind so far from reality as discussed here to be absolutely incurable case. That's a classic ostrich. Any regrets that this series hurts the feelings of such man? Of course none. Same principle applies as what Richard Alley nicely explains in this video: minor cases do not matter. What does matter is a big picture. And big picture in this case is what sane people are going to think/do about it. What the decision makers, like Mitt Romney are going to do.
  33. Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
    Exactly... and at any rate, it's a whole lot less contentious than the 'D' word! It's well worth watching the whole 'Operators Manual' series (i.e. the full hour-long programs). Alley is a very likeable presenter. One could certainly direct ostriches to them...
  34. Dikran Marsupial at 19:04 PM on 9 June 2012
    Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Rufus9 wrote "Papers are pulled or corrected all the time, but likely not at a sufficient frequency to correct all errors" This is a very unrealistic expectation! In my experience the majority of papers either have significant flaws in the methodology, experimental sections that do not adequately support the conclusions, or flawed intepretation of the results. Peer review is only ever a sanity check, nothing more, and it is unwise to assume any paper is correct simply because it appears in a journal. "Group think" is not really a problem in peer review; the scientific mindset has no problem finding faults in anything, whether it agrees with their preconceptions or not. Personally I view the "group think" as mere rhetoric designed to discredit a particular branch of science that another branch doesn't like. It has nothing to do with science IMHO. The major problems with peer review is the "publish or perish" nature of academia, which means there is great pressure on all of us to publish in quantity often at the expense of quality. This is becuase it is hard to make an objective metric that measures quality (at least hard to make one that operates without a delay of 5+ years). This means that (i) there are many more papers published than there used to be (ii) academics have less time to review them than they used to do (iii) comments papers have little or no value, so academics have pretty much stopped writing them. The result is an explosion of the number of journal and a reduction in quality control. Nothing to do with "group think", everything to do with the economics. As I said, peer review has always only been regarded as a sanity check, nothing more (unless you are lucky enough to have really good reviewrs). In the past, poor papers get published, but they get ignored by the research community, so nothing needs to be done. It used to be that particularly bad papers recieved comments refuting them to make sure the are ignored, but that additional quality control no longer really exists. The problem these days is that the papers are discussed outside the research community, e.g. on climate blogs, that don't generally have the scientific background to properly understand them, and bad papers are no longer ignore as there will always be some that take them seriously, no matter how bad they are (e.g. any paper that argues that the rise in CO2 is a natural phenomenon). Peer review isn't emotionally charged, at least not in the sciences, a mountain is being made from a molehill IMHO.
  35. Rob Painting at 16:31 PM on 9 June 2012
    Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
    Alex, it appears the videos are targeted at those that talk to climate change ostriches.
  36. actually thoughtful at 15:52 PM on 9 June 2012
    Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
    With a worldwide shortage of jobs and the fact that it takes more labor to get energy from renewable sources - this supposed 1% reduction in GDP may not come to pass. That reduction is based on the premise of full employment. In that case, you have to take people from doing productive things into doing less productive (strictly economic sense here). So if it takes 1.5 as many people per unit of energy, and you have full employment - then GDP suffers. If you have a long-term underemployment situation, and you can switch people into productive work and raise employment, you actually end up growing the economy, not sacrificing growth. Renewables, in practice, usually have unintended consequences on the positive side. My solar thermal space heating customers enjoy warmer homes in the fall and spring (at zero extra cost/carbon) - because the system is sized for maximum production in the winter (with the least sunshine) - so it overproduces in the winter and fall. What is the catastrophic consequence of this? The GDP bashing fallout? Warmer, more comfortable people. (these systems are paying for themselves in about a decade. Then they funding a notable portion of my customer's retirement after that). The switch to renewables growing the economy is yet another unintended positive consequence of renewable energy.
  37. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    My main point which was addressed above was that drawing a connectivity network between parties with similar views may be interesting, but is not necessarily a sign of mass conspiracy. However, they can be a sign of group think, which is relatively commonplace in science. The peer review process itself is often flawed. One site to keep an eye on is: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/ Papers are pulled or corrected all the time, but likely not at a sufficient frequency to correct all errors. No doubt there are flaws in HSI, but at least in my reading there were mathematical or methodological critiques as well, including a potentially biased view of the peer review and editorial review process, but still, even if half true, it raised my awareness of problems in this emotionally charged area of science. For a very interesting discussion on scientific research, repeatability, and issues with the peer review process, I recommend listening to this episode of Econtalk with Ed Yong. http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2012/06/yong_on_science.html
  38. Alex The Seal at 11:06 AM on 9 June 2012
    Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
    This is a great series but it's a pity about the whole ostrich thing. If you want to get someone to understand something.. and you start by likening them to an ostrich, you're really not going to get far. You can basically hear their minds creaking closed at that point.
  39. Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
    Ahh, that link shows it's not 1% less per annum, (which rapidly becomes a very high cost) it's 1% total by 2030, no biggie.
  40. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    HR @10 - Skeptical Science covers both climate science and solutions. The Australian carbon pricing system is a climate solution. Discussing climate policy is not equivalent to discussing politics. For example, we did not criticize Plimer for his extreme political rhetoric, we simply corrected his factual errors when describing the policy solution. Discussing climate policy/solutions is entirely consistent with SkS guidelines. Discussing political motivations is not.
  41. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    Humanity Rules @10, Australia's current leader of the opposition is on record as saying that the science behind Climate change is crap. That does not make defending the science of climate change a political activity, or this a political blog. In the same manner, just because Plimmer makes false statements about a politically contentious issue, ie, the cost and effectiveness of the carbon tax, does not mean there is no fact of the matter; and discussing those facts is not a political act. It is, perhaps, economics rather than climate science that is being misrepresented by Plimmer - but given that the topic falls well withing the range of issues discussed by the IPCC (see WG2 and WG3 reports), it is certainly well within the appropriate range of topics for SkS.
  42. HumanityRules at 07:21 AM on 9 June 2012
    Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    Dana, "As is our usual practice at Skeptical Science, we will not comment on Plimer's political rhetoric, but instead will focus on the many climate science myths contained in his piece" The whole section marked 'Misrepresentation of the Australian Carbon Pricing System" is about tax, legislation, jobs and energy pricing. Since when is this climate science and not politics?
    Moderator Response: [DB] Given the nature of the OP, some leeway is given to matters tangential to it. Such as the section you outline. Politics not related to the OP, ad hominems and "sloganeering" (and other things proscribed by the Comments Policy) are still off-limits.
  43. Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
    I know in the USA the total estimated cost is around $1 trillion total beteween now and 2050. That's several times less than adaptation is expected to cost (see here).
  44. IPCC graph showing accelerating trends is misleading
    # 86 SRJ and the discussion between me and Dikran in # 90, #95 and # 96 I should have mentioned that the graph of the GAM model shows 99% significance, marked with blue. Using the usual 95%, the GAM is significant until 2006.
  45. Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
    Hmm. 39 years of 1.02 growth vs 1.03 seems to cost around 20% of total production over that period. I wonder at what point adaptation costs that amount. Maybe when the first superfamine hits.
  46. In Search Of: Himalayan Ice Loss
    Justin@6: where to begin? First, your plagiarism of a unattributed Wiki article was (-snip-), not mention bordering on violating the 'no ad hominem' proscription of SkS. It was easy to find, BTW. Gotta love the Googleboxes! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayas Second, your point, as was pointed out, is *not even wrong*, it's so wrong. It's utterly irrelevant, and supports nothing of real benefit to the discussion at hand. Lastly, as a geologist, all I can say is... /facepalm.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Please refrain from accusations of dishonesty.
  47. Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
    I think that's right Tristan, though I could be mistaken. It could just be that it will cost 1% of GDP per year.
  48. New research from last week 22/2012
    Warmer temperatures reduce soil-fertility: Interactions between above- and belowground organisms modified in climate change experiments
  49. Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
    Well, since it has been raised by Rufus9: 1) Of course, well-published climate scientists know each other. Well-published scientists in any field know each other. 2) But for an equivalent situation, one needs to find a substantial set of cases where a) demonstrably-bad papers were shepherded through peer review, over years, by members of the group, b) causing other editors to resign in protest. Even competent researchers make mistakes, but in the CR case, not-so-competent researchers were well taken-care-of. Let's see, Vincent Gray, retired coal researcher gets a *review paper* slot. Well, that makes sense. Competent researchers are each others' toughest critics and they especially don't give free passes if friends send around something not up to par. 3) HSI: Montford not only relied on a non-credible article in a "dog astrology journal" for a key theme in his book, but then he falsified an already-wrong statement about it. In academe, false citation like this is one of the deadly sins, and if Montford were an academic, formal misconduct complaints would have been filed long ago. The only defense would be a plea of incompetence in not reading a key reference. See archived HSI dog astrology discussion on Wikipedia, which no one would even address, much less refute. They repeatedly tried to removed it (a no-no), but The Stoat kept reverting it back. See He Who Quotes from Dog Astrology Journal, @ Rabett Run or this comment @ Andrew Gelman's.
  50. Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
    So if GDP growth were 1.03/annum under the no reduction regime, GDP growth would be 1.02/annum under the necessary cuts regime?

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