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robin6721 at 22:01 PM on 9 May 2012We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
@DSL, On CET, 0.585C per decade average from the 1690`s to the 1730`s http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat -
pvincell at 20:35 PM on 9 May 2012101 responses to Ian Plimer's climate questions
I've said this before, but I can't say it enough. Skeptical Science is a superior resource because it is grounded in peer-reviewed, published scientific literature. I cannot thank you all enough for providing all the updates, summaries, syntheses, and citations to important research papers. That this is all done on a voluntary basis is phenomenal. Paul Vincelli -
Sceptical Wombat at 19:55 PM on 9 May 2012rbutr Puts Climate Information In Front of Those Who Need It Most
My concern is that the system will be easy to game. For instance an author can presumably add rebuttals to her own post that point to other pages which either agree, or disagree in a way that is obviously wrong or are totally irrelevant. After chasing up a few of these readers are likely to give up or assume that there is no legitimate rebuttal to the original postModerator Response:Of course this is something which we will have to moderate. At this stage, our system is incredibly simple and we can moderate that sort of abuse manually. As our usership grows and manual moderation becomes a problem, we can react with algorithm based filters/alerts, and bring on board additional moderators with extra powers.
For every social system there is someone trying to game it, and for every game move, there is a counter-action to stop it. To date there has been no attempt at abuse of rbutr. As soon as there is, the reaction will be swift, and effective.
Shane
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bill4344 at 18:54 PM on 9 May 2012101 responses to Ian Plimer's climate questions
It certainly is, Donald. Well done indeed to both SkS and the DCCEE. (Way to use my taxes for the latter) -
Riccardo at 17:09 PM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Tarciso are you relying on 150 years old measurements, performed only at surface pressure and (unspecified) room temperature and not spectroscopic and still claiming that more recent radiative transfer codes with updated data are wrong? I don't think there's any need to comment any further on this. Also, radiative transfer calculation are indeed perfomend using the cosine integrals, though your point on near field is wrong. Finally, emission by small volumes of air with a random distribution of emitting particles is isotropic as well as the overall atmospheric emission (hint, emission is incoherent). You are clearly talking about one thing you didn't study deeply enough. It's not a problem per se, but I'd suggest that before coming to any conclusion, let alone claiming that decades of radiative transfer studies are wrong, you take more time studying it. -
DonaldB at 16:35 PM on 9 May 2012101 responses to Ian Plimer's climate questions
What a Gish Gallop! It's ironic that Plimer used to debunk creationist arguments. -
Tarcisio José D at 16:10 PM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Dear Dr. Tom Curtis. I am not saying that the "model" can not predict the Toa radiative imbalance. What I am saying is that "Models" can not be used to calculate the effect of possible changes in CO2 concentration or variations of cloud cover. Let's see. Tyndall found for the nitrogen gas, an "absorption" of 0.33% on a pipe 48 'or 1.22 m. This result indicates a tramitância of 0.9967 / m. If we calculate the attenuation of IR radiation from the ground to the center of mass of the atmosphere 5000 meters meet -58.83 dB. This tells me that the atmosphere is opaque to IR radiation or, in other words, it retains all the heat. What is measured in the TOA is radiation own radiation to the atmosphere and not the ground. Note that this is a simplified calculation for the real would have to still apply the cosine-integral point to point because we are working within the so-called near field. So we have two systems. The first, which transfers heat between the ground and the atmosphere (and vice versa), between 0 and 5000 meters, the second trasfere that heat from the atmosphere to the space (and vice versa) of 5000 meters upwards. Each with its temperature and its composição.This explains the effect diode like. Now if we consider a transparent atmosphere and apply the theory of isotropic radiator, by calculating the attenuation from 1m to 5.000m we meet 20log(5,000)=-73.9dB result that belies the "absorption" of gases that are not part of the GHG coctel. If you left any doubt consult a physicist. -
Alex The Seal at 16:03 PM on 9 May 2012101 responses to Ian Plimer's climate questions
I think it's amusing that Plimer sends these questions to school children. Most other people research scientific literature. At least he's trying. :-) -
Chemware at 15:30 PM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
Dan, that raises a question: has anyone done a statistical analysis of the monthly CO2 readings in your post 10 ? -
GillianB at 14:59 PM on 9 May 2012101 responses to Ian Plimer's climate questions
Skeptical Science is also listed on the Resources page of Climate Science Rapid Response Team website, where you are described as: "Superbly researched and illustrated blog that examines climate change skepticism." Going from strength to strength! Well done! -
Daniel Bailey at 14:33 PM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
One telltale sign to watch out for is the slipping of the seasonal pattern (6-7 month rise culminating in a May apex). If enough tropic, temperate and boreal forest degradation occurs, and if the oceanic sinks begin to lose effectivity as carbon sinks, then the sign to watch out for is the apex of the seasonal rise continuing on into June... Needless to say, that would be very bad. Almost "game-over" bad. -
chriskoz at 14:05 PM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
DB@10, While clicking at your NOAA link, it's worth noting the growth from 4/2011 (393.28ppm) to 4/2012 was almost 3ppm thus well above the average 2ppmy-1 in the last decade (fig 3 in the link target). While the growth rate has "slowed down" (poor consolation) to just 1.5ppmy-1 in 1990-2000, now it seems to have accelerated to the levels likely unseen in the entire history of Planet Earth. Anyone wants to challenge this last statement? -
DSL at 14:00 PM on 9 May 2012We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
How rapidly, robin? (reference, plz) -
Albatross at 13:24 PM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
Alex @38, To be frank, it is very telling that you are concerned with "tone" and semantics in lieu of providing compelling scientific evidence that Lindzen's assertion is correct, doing so also speaks to the weakness of both his and your case. In fact, I'm surprised that some of your posts have not been deleted for being off topic. The comments policy states: "No off topic comments. Stick to the subject at hand." But I digress, given that you have elected to defend Lindzen, please demonstrate for us all here mathematically how we should have seen 3 C warming by now. I for one, will judge your defence/case solely on the merits of your theoretical argument. -
alexharv074 at 13:04 PM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
Dana, (-Snip-) (-Snip-) Meanwhile, we do not agree that Lindzen is 'wrong'. I don't see where I said that so I am surprised that you feel we agree on that point. What we agree on is that Lindzen's estimate for climate sensitivity is lower than everyone else's, and that he may be wrong.Moderator Response: [DB] Tone-trolling and moderation complaints snipped. Future comments constructed thusly will be deleted in their entirety. FYI. -
Daniel Bailey at 11:51 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
We just lost another month: April 2012 Mauna Loa CO2 now at 396.18 ppm
One more month of rise before the seasonal peak is reached. This possibly puts 400 ppm within reach in May 2013...
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Tom Curtis at 11:28 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Tarcisio José D @45, there is no point saying the model "... cannot explain the behaviour ... presented by the atmosphere". Clearly the model explains the radiative behaviour of the atmosphere very well:
Note that this agreement between a 1987 model using an approximation of atmospheric conditions prevailing at the time of observation, and predicting the resulting TOA radiative imbalance very well.
This is the prediction compared to observation of an earlier (1979) model using more precise atmospheric conditions as determined by a radiosonde:
This image is from Conrath 1979, a detail of which is reproduced in my post.
If your theory of the radiative behaviour of the atmosphere predicts a substantially different result to that predicted by these models, as it must if you claim they "cannot explain the behaviour" of the atmosphere, then your theory is falsified by the observational evidence. It is that simple.
So in scientific terms, there is no argument here. There is simply the choice of following you in believing a favoured theory in preference to the observations, or accepting the observations and the theory that predicts them.
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robin6721 at 10:29 AM on 9 May 2012We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
"The global temperature has been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5°C per century since the end of the little ice age in the 1700s (when the Thames River would freeze over every winter; the last time it froze over was 1804) ..." It temperature actually rose very rapidly into the 1730`s after Maunder. The Thames did not freeze over every winter. The last London Frost Fair was in 1814. -
bill4344 at 10:15 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
Alex is using the standard contrarian functional definition of ad hominem, which is roughly 'someone has stated that a named contrarian's idea/s is/are wrong'.Thanks for the interesting post and for keeping it unusually free of ad hominem attacks.
It's very hard to see this as a constructive opening if the science is really what's at issue here... -
scaddenp at 10:06 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Then you appear to have misunderstood it. The equations are integrated over the height of atmosphere. How else could temperature be used? Again, do you understand why GHG effect depends on a temperature? -
skywatcher at 10:05 AM on 9 May 2012ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
les - I dont know how that works either, but the original sentence whizzed round the skeptic blogosphere repeated verbatim, always associated with Solani's 2011 paper. The original source, unusually, was always a link to a Google Translate version of a summary of an EIKE meeting in Germany in April 2011. The originator of the quote: Fritz Varenholt, in a verbal debate with Georg Feulner! How Chinese whispers spread on the Internet... So a verbal statement by Varenholt (see a recent article involving him here), got translated to English, then copied on a lot of english-speaking skeptic websites, presented as an 'official' summary of the Solanki paper. -
Tarcisio José D at 09:31 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
scaddenp @51 http://forecast.uchicago.edu/Projects/berk.1987.modtran_desc.pdf -
scaddenp at 09:09 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Jose - where do you get the idea that MODTRANS does? Look again the RTEs. -
Tarcisio José D at 08:39 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Ricardo @ 46 An emission, spontaneously or not, must be analyzed by the principle of isotropic radiation when the distance between the points of transmission and reception (measured) is greater than 10 times the largest dimension of the radiator. Our radiator has 20,000 km long (equatorial) therefore can not be analyzed in a distance of 10 Km as an isotropic point. -
les at 08:10 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
It's not so much sentences like that; but that they're a secret society - you knew that they're secret, right? - along with other secret societies like the Bilderberg group, the UN, EU, pan-dimensional shape-shifting lizards, Michelle Mann and my aunt Matilda; who are engineering the reduction of the world population by cutting off the oil supply, motivated by the AGW-hoax. Or something like that. -
scaddenp at 07:14 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Jose, I am still curious as to why you chose to trust a couple of dubious videos instead of textbook atmospheric physics. Both speak to something that is new to you, so why did you trust one rather than the other? -
scaddenp at 07:08 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Jose, when a program is able to correctly predict observed spectra to very high precision for earth and other planets, I would be very hesitant to declare it is wrong, you would have to ask yourself whether the program (and thus the underlying model) is wrong - or your understanding of it. I'd say study Ramanathan more closely. You do understand why GHG effect depends on lapse rate? Ie no GHG effect in an isothermal slab. -
Riccardo at 07:03 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
Ies very true, sentences like "We need a system of governance that takes a more long-term view" will set conspiracy theorists on fire. -
Bob Lacatena at 07:01 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
45, Tarcisio José D, I think you should probably study the programs a lot more carefully before declaring them to be flawed. I promise you, if you think they are flawed, then there are things that you do not understand about them or the process. -
Riccardo at 06:58 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Tarciso "it appears that they are designed on the principle of transparency of the atmosphere to infrared radiation error" Absolutely wrong, they even quote the source of the absorption data. "the principle of irradiation of an isotropic radiator does not apply to this case." Wrong again, spontaneous emission is isotropic. -
Tarcisio José D at 05:32 AM on 9 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Hello friends. I went to thank @ 40 Scaddenp the link to "Ramanathan" I am studying It, with the application MODTRAN suggested by Tom and also to thank Tom Curtis the kindness of intervening in the discussion to progress of science. I must also say that the study of these two programs it appears that they are designed on the principle of transparency of the atmosphere to infrared radiation error this (Tyndall, 1861) obscured by the principle of irradiation of an isotropic radiator does not apply to this case. For these errors in the program it can not explain the behavior "diode like" presented bay the atmosphere and neither simulate the sensitivity to carbon dioxide. I'll find a Godfather to guide me in preparing the statements and try to overcome the barrier of the peer-reviewed. " -
les at 04:33 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
6 - John That is so going to press all buttons the Conspiracy Theorists!! -
John Hartz at 04:10 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
By coincidence, the Club of Rome just released a new report on mankind’s ability to deal with climate change. (Rotterdam, the Netherlands): 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers, launched by the Club of Rome on May 7, raises the possibility that humankind might not survive on the planet if it continues on its path of over-consumption and short-termism. This new report is summarized in the article, “New Report issues a warning about humanity’s ability to survive without a major change in direction” posted on the Club of Rome’s website. The article also contains a video about the launch. To access the article and video, click here . -
dana1981 at 03:51 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
BWTrainer @3 - I do think that accounting for all of the economic consequences of future climate change is a major challenge. It's hard enough to predict those changes, let alone their potential costs. Considering how risk averse people normally are, our cavalier attitute towards climate change is really uncharacteristic and bizarre. I think some of it is due to the fact that it's a long-term problem, as Rob noted. Some of it is just disbelief that the risk could be as high as it is. A lot of it is probably the effectiveness of the disinformation campaign as well. There's also the fact that most people do support reducing GHG emissions, but politicians are beholden to corporate interests, which are focused on their short-term profits. People don't see the problem as a high enough priority to force their representatives to act on it for the reasons noted above. There are a lot of factors behind our faiulre to mitigate this risk. -
Albatross at 03:42 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
Right now the odds of future generations emerging from this global experiment are becoming lower with each year of inaction. Rob, makes some good points. The problem with governments is that they typically work on a four year election cycle. This is a problem that requires vision, prudence and being altruistic. Sadly, much of what I see at work is myopia and greed. For future generations to stand a good chance of not having to pay an even heftier penalty for our actions, we need two things to hold true: 1) We need to reduce emissions as rapidly as possible. 2) Climate sensitivity needs to be on the very low end of the IPCC range. Arguing that climate sensitivity is "low" as an excuse to delay taking action, or not take action at all, is foolhardy, as we may very well already be locked into dangerous warming. Moreover, if little or no further action is taken because of this false sense of security, we could be headed for over 1000 ppmv CO2 by 2100, and in that situation even if climate sensitivity is "only" 2 C, we would still be potentially looking at warming on the order of 4-5 C, perhaps more. And that does not include the potentially disasterous impacts of ocean acidification associated with CO2 levels > 1000 ppmv. So, from my perspective, the pros of taking meaningful and prompt action on reducing GHGs far outweigh the cons, regardless of the value of climate sensitivity. -
BWTrainer at 03:40 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
To make matters worse, I wonder if the future cost estimate is drastically understated. As shown in the bullet points, several negative consequences of 3-4 ° warming are amplifiers that are only going to make matters worse. As Joe Romm and others have pointed out, 4 may be just a stopping point to even more warming. Am I correct in thinking that economic models don't account for that? -
dana1981 at 03:09 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
Good point Rob. People naturally have a harder time with risk management the further into the future the threat is posed. -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:08 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 2: Risk
The other challenging part of this issue is that we are doing something that is somewhat unusual in terms of risk management. We are looking to insure future generations. It's one thing to pay for car insurance just in case you have a wreck. It's another thing entirely to say we should be paying auto insurance on our grand children's cars and homes. This is precisely why this has to be a governmental issue. Individuals have individual responsibilities that span their lifetimes, and to a lesser extent, their children's lives. Corporations are worse. They have to deal with quarter to quarter issues bordering with the span of time key executives are in charge. Governments operate in generational timeframes. They establish laws and structures that are intended to apply for the long term and ensure the security and prosperity for their people. The challenge is balancing the needs and responsibilities of corporations and individuals with the needs of nations over the course of generations. It's what makes this issue so incredibly challenging. -
MarkHoofnagle at 02:47 AM on 9 May 2012The 5 characteristics of scientific denialism
Thanks for the attribution on the tactics, however, it should be noted though that Diethelm and McKee used our definition of denialism as well. -
MP3CE at 02:11 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
#23 @dana1981 and #24 chriskoz: Thank you both for clarifying me my mistake. -
muoncounter at 02:07 AM on 9 May 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #18
Here's one from 2004, although there's no direct quote. That points to one reason the world should pay attention to this week's report. Like a canary in a coal mine, the hyper-sensitive polar regions may well experience the full force of global warming before the rest of the planet does. -
dana1981 at 02:00 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
alexharv074 @26 - apparently we agree on the substance of the post above, which is that Lindzen is wrong. It's true that by neglecting the global energy imbalance, Lindzen's "model" would effectively have zero 'unrealized warming'. However, since we know there is a global energy imbalance, we know his "model" is wrong (which is simply another way to describe the third Achilles' Heel from the post above). As for recent sensitivity estimates, that's a different subject. Some recent studies put it towards the lower end of the IPCC range, some in the middle, some towards the higher end. I'm not aware of any that put the value outside the IPCC range, except the flawed Lindzen and Choi papers. As for ad hominem, a couple of comments including CBD @30 have explained why you are incorrect on this point. Saying someone is wrong, or consistently wrong, is not ad hominem. -
John Hartz at 01:40 AM on 9 May 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #18
I posed this question because over the past few years I have seen a number of climatic events declared to be the "canary in the coal mine" by scientists and journalists. Does anyone happen to know who was the first prominent scientist to describe a climatic event as "the canary in the coal mine"? -
Albatross at 01:24 AM on 9 May 2012New research from last week 18/2012
Hi Ari, Great papers this week-- I can't keep up! ;) Not looking good for the biosphere that sustains us is it? -
Albatross at 01:10 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
Alex@26, I'm sorry but your entire post is essentially off topic and not relevant to the main post. Dana noted @4 that "...you're not addressing the point of the post", and you are still continuing to do so by presenting what could be construed by some as a Gish gallop of irrelevant and/or off-topic statements. Doing so is not helping your nor Lindzen's case. All that needs to be said/acknowledged is that Lindzen was wrong when he claimed "Yeah, and we should have seen 3[°C]". -
Utahn at 00:43 AM on 9 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
Kevin C, I think it's Crook not Cook. Also Andrews 2012 I think estimates best guess around 3.4K equilibrium sensitivity. FWIW Gillett was an estimate of transient sensitivity, not sure there's an easy "conversion" factor for equilibrium sensitivity... Overall I agree that none of this impacts the basic point that Lindzen was wrong to suggest we should have already seen 3C. Alexharv074 said: "Thus, if Lindzen was right, the system would already be virtually in equilibrium - the timescale for a sensitivity of 0.7 K is just a few years." But Lindzen was referring to what we should have seen if he was wrong, i.e. if sensitivity was 3K...so, he's still wrong! -
Daniel Bailey at 00:03 AM on 9 May 2012New research from last week 17/2012
I am...skeptical... -
les at 23:06 PM on 8 May 2012ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
hummm... all a bit confusing. Much other stuff from Cole seems to have the same, or similar, origins. e.g. 30 Cole. Shouldn't there be a moderation policy that posts with substantial cut-and-paste from other sites, without links / attribution, should be deleted?Moderator Response: [DB] Revisions to the Comments Policy that cover this aspect are under consideration. -
muoncounter at 23:05 PM on 8 May 2012ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
This paper appears to have slipped by without note. Kazil et al 2011: The decadal solar cycle modulation of Earth's radiative forcing via ionization of the atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays, aerosol formation from the gas phase, and the response of clouds to aerosol is quantified for the first time with a climate model that represents and couples the relevant processes. ... Globally and annually averaged, the solar cycle modulation of Earth's radiative forcing, arising from the increase in atmospheric ionization by galactic cosmic rays from solar maximum to minimum, via charged nucleation of aerosol, the direct aerosol effect, and the cloud albedo effect, amounts to -0.05 W m-2. A limited relevance of this variation for the Earth's atmosphere and climate can be inferred, given that Earth's radiative forcing changes by -0.24 W m-2 from solar maximum to minimum because of a decrease in total solar irradiance. -- emphasis added This result shows that rumors that 'climate models can't include cosmic ray->cloud effects' and "... solar-mediated variations in the intensity of cosmic rays bombarding the earth are indeed responsible for the temperature variations ..." are much exaggerated. Or perhaps it's all been Much Ado About Nothing: Marry, sir, they have committed false report... -
Tsumetai at 22:40 PM on 8 May 2012Lindzen's Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science
For contrarians like Lindzen, climate sensitivity must be low, or they have no case to make. They have acknowledged that GHGs will cause warming, and their only argument against taking serious action to reduce GHG emissions is this premise that the GHG increase won't cause very much warming. That is why we described this argument as the 'skeptic' endgame, and Gillis accurately described it as the dissenters' "last bastion."
Sadly, no. There's also:- Climate scientists are right about how much warming to expect, but warming is good.
- OK, it's bad, but anything we do to stop it would be worse.
- OK, it's worth stopping, but we'll never get international agreement to do so.
- OK, we could have stopped it, but it's too late now. If only those damn climate scientists had done a better job of warning us!
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