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Comments 59201 to 59250:

59201. pauls at 09:17 AM on 7 May 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Hansen 1981
       Bob Loblaw, IPCC chapter 8. Check the caption for table 8.2.
59202. Tom Curtis at 09:15 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio José D @37, I have responded in detail on another, more appropriate thread, and suggest that you do likewise. I understand that you are using "Google translate" in order to overcome a language barrier. You are to be commended for your efforts to do so, but "Google translate" is not up to the task, and I recommend that you enlist the aid of a technically proficient, and bilingually fluent friend to aid you. In essence, my response points out that the atmosphere does in fact have the diode like property of emitting more radiation downward to the surface than it does upward to space (which my not be quite what Tarcisio meant by his use of the phrase), and that it has this property despite the fact that no individual component of the atmosphere has the property. I go on to point out that detailed modelling shows the property to exist, and that those models have been shown to be remarkably accurate by empirical observation, and that indeed that diode like quality of a higher downward IR radiation from the atmosphere than the upward IR radiation at the Top of the Atmosphere has been observed empirically.
59203. Tom Curtis at 09:05 AM on 7 May 2012
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       This is a response to Tarcisio José D from another thread. In response to my explanation, he asks:

       "My question is, which quality of your atmosphere makes it only absorbs IR radiation that rises in the atmosphere and free passes IR radiation that the atmosphere emits more toward the ground."

       In fact nothing I wrote suggests the gases within the atmosphere act as a diode. Each IR active gas will absorb IR radiation with equal facility from all directions, and emit it with equal probability in all directions. However, the atmosphere as a whole acts as a diode. That is, it emits more IR radiation upwards to space than it does towards the ground. It does this because the emission to space comes from higher, and cooler layers within the troposphere as explained in the article above, and also in my posts 36, 51, and 58 above. Importantly, Line By Line (LBL) models, which calculate the IR emission and absorption in the atmosphere at each wave number, and which require each layer of the atmosphere absorbs IR radiation with equal facility whether the radiation comes from below or above, or from the atmosphere or the surface, and which requires that each layer radiates equal amounts of IR radiation upwards and downwards, produce this diode like effect, provided that the atmosphere is cooler at higher altitudes. You can see this for yourself with Modtran. If you run the model on default settings, the outgoing IR radiation equals (Iout) 287.844 W/m^2. Altering the settings to sensor altitude = 0 km, and "looking up" shows the downward long wave radiation from the atmosphere (Iout) is 348.226 W/m^2. The accuracy of these LBL models is shown in the section "Settled science" in the main article, and in my post number 43. It should be noted that the observed upward IR radiation from the top of the atmosphere is 239 W/m^2, while the observed downward IR radiation at the bottom of the atmosphere is 333 W/m^2, amply illustrating this diode like quality of the atmosphere as a whole, even though no individual component (gas molecule) of the atmosphere acts like a diode. I understand that Tarcisio José D is facing a considerable language barrier in communicating in English, and is to be commended for his efforts to overcome that barrier. I recommend that he read carefully this post, the main article above, and the posts linked to in my response. If he is having difficulty in understanding the issue, I also recommend he enlist the aid of a technically proficient friend who is fluent in both English and his native language (which I assume is Spanish or Portuguese). Google translate is not up to translating technical discussions accurately, and will only lead to ongoing confusion. Finally, the issue he needs to address is, why should we prefer his hand waving explanation to the detailed results of LBL models which have proven remarkably accurate in predicting the observed radiation in the atmosphere, whether sampled from satellites, the ground, or aircraft at intermediate levels of the atmosphere?
59204. adelady at 09:03 AM on 7 May 2012
       2012 SkS Weekly Digest #18
       "canary in the coalmine"? I take that as something we'll look back on in 30-50 years time and say - someone should have put it all together right then and there. For me, that's the reduction in inflows to Perth's water storages in the 70s. Few cities are better placed to show the effects of expansion of Hadley cells ..... and that it's a bad thing.
59205. dana1981 at 09:01 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       victull @28 - you're comparing different energy imbalance estimates. As I said, take a look at the Levitus post. Model-based estimates of a 0.9 W/m2 imbalance were probably over-estimates. We'll have more on this in the future.
59206. Cole at 07:18 AM on 7 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       Tom, "A higher sea level will result in flooding of low inland ar-eas, and increase the total length of coastline and the area of the continental shelves. This results in more heterogeneous habitats in which species can evolve, leading to an increase in diversity, and Miller et al. (2005) offer this as the reason for the development of the three eukaryotic phytoplankton clades (lineages) that dominate the modern ocean. >But the rough correspondence between marine invertebrate diversity and sea level seen in Fig. 19 is plainly not the whole story
       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Allegations of misrepresentation are seriously in violation of this site's Comments Policy, just as they are on the SkS FB page.

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59207. scaddenp at 07:00 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio Jose D. What I find so interesting is the statement: "I am very sure that I am right in saying that all who believe in the warming of our planet is caused by CO2 are totally wrong," which then implies that you have chosen to believe a couple of video from dubious sources with laughable science over the bulk of known heavyweight physics. Now why would do such a strange thing? As you are finding out, things are more complicated than thought and the science is better, but why did you choose to trust such strange sources over known science. You claimed to be "very sure" which is also extraordinary. It would be really interesting if you could explain why you trust one source over another. As the "rectifier". DK, Bob, I dont think Jose is claiming the atmosphere works like a rectifer. He is trying to understand Tom and thinks that climate theory requires the atmosphere to behave like a rectifier because he hasnt understood the theory. This isnt that straightforward to follow. Eli Rabett did a good explanation I think but I cant find it. Any got a pointer? Jose, people are trying to make the greenhouse model explicable but ultimately the test is in doing the calculation. The real model with the equations can be found in Ramanathan and Coakley 1978. You need a computer to calculate the equations, but how do we know that is it right? Well because it predicts what we can observe of spectrum etc, with a very high degree of precision.
59208. Cole at 06:50 AM on 7 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       Muon, Sure, he's the sole Author, big deal. It passed review and look where it's published. Agee's result is meaningless. We would only need a 2% change in global cloud cover (GCC) to account for the warming trend experienced. As I stated we can't really detect changes in GCC (let alone a mere 2%) as we don't have the proper technology. Agees' result is spurious at best, and the paper even makes it clear that it is only a "possible" disconnect. The CLOUD results didn't prove Svensmark correct as they couldn't make actual clouds. The thing it did prove is the microphysics are defiantly at work. According to Kirby they should have conclusive results within 5 years. The SKS "coffin nails" article is really counting chickens before they hatch. Sure the CLOUD experiment didn't prove Svensmark theory, but the microphysics fit like a glove. Furthermore, if you look at the correlation between CRF and T over the geological eras right up until present it's quite uncanny. Just looking at the last 10-12,000 years Kirkby (2008) rightly notes, “the question of whether, and to what extent, the climate is influenced by solar and cosmic ray variability remains central to our understanding of the anthropogenic contribution to present climate change.” Clearly, carbon dioxide is not the all-important dominating factor in earth’s climatic history. Within the context of the Holocene, the only time CO2 moved in concert with air temperature was over the period of earth’s recovery from the global chill of the Little Ice Age (the past century or so), and it does so then only quite imperfectly. The flux of galactic cosmic rays, on the other hand, appears to have influenced ups and downs in both temperature and precipitation over the entire 10-12 thousand years of the Holocene, making it the prime candidate for “prime determinant” of earth’s climatic state. http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1938
59209. Bob Loblaw at 06:07 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio José D: How can I say this politely? Models of radiation transfer in the atmosphere do consider both upward- and downward-directed radiation, and the absorption/transmission/scattering/emission in both directions. Where on earth did you get the idea that they don't? Your ignorance is shining through like the headlight on an oncoming train. You really need to find some better sources of information.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Can I suggest that we ignore Tarcisio José D until he either posts a reference to a scientific paper that suggests the atmosphere does behave like a rectifier.
59210. kampmannpeine at 05:59 AM on 7 May 2012
       Report Warns of Rapid Decline in U.S. Earth Observation Capabilities
       when I observe this here from Europe I see larger problems arising. On the other hand I recently heard that China is enlarging their space programme by themselves. They obviously do not like cooperation with anybody else ... Sad, sad, sad
59211. Rob Painting at 05:44 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Victull - "How do conclude that the imbalance is growing when it was about 0.9W/M2 and over the last 5-6 years is about 0.6W/sq.m?" Dana is likely referring to the long-term trend. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have a very long lifetime in the atmosphere, so the warming effect will be persistent and will grow over time as more fossil fuels are burnt. By contrast, the recent cooling effect imposed by natural (volcanic) and human-made aerosols, are short-lived and may not grow to match them. Additionally, despite the short-term fluctuations (as shown in figure 11 of Hansen [2011]), the global energy imbalance has undergone a long-term increase. SkS will be covering this in the near-future, as it's a source of confusion for many.
59212. Tarcisio José D at 05:18 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Sphaerica @36 and Tom Curtis @ 32 Replay my post corrected..... Tom Curtis @ 32 Very interesting theory. But ..... My question is, which quality of your atmosphere makes it only absorbs IR radiation that rises in the atmosphere and free passes IR radiation that the atmosphere emits more toward the ground. I believe that there is'nt this "rectifier diode" in our atmosphere and the greenhouse effect works both in one direction as another.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Please can you supply a reference to a peer-reviewed scientific paper that suggests that GHGs only absorb IR radiation that rises in the atmosphere, a page number in the IPCC WG1 report will do fine. Unless you supply evidence that mainstream science makes such an assumption, I will assume that it is merely an attempt to disrupt the discussion. If you are unable to provide a reference, then this suggests that the problem lies with your understanding of the greenhouse effect. If you don't understand the greenhouse effect, then simply ask someone to explain it to you.
59213. Bob Lacatena at 04:56 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       34, Tarcisio José D,

       I believe that...

       Why do "skeptics" so often start sentences like this (usually followed by some perspective on the problem which is based on their own world experience, but completely unsupported by any true science)? Do you any evidence whatsoever to support your "rectifier diode" theory? Do you think there's some reason why perhaps no one else in the world has developed and supported your theory?
59214. JimF at 03:33 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio Jose D @31 Sorry it took a bit to get back to you, but I was cutting back my candytufts a week before Mother's Day...I used to love those old pictures of Mom in front of the white blooms on Mother's Day. Jose, you've got to help me out here, because this how I start to get worried when I have these conversations. OK. For a non-scientific view, if in the year 2017 (five years from now), global land and sea temperatures continue to rise, 3 of those years land in the top 10 of warmest years on record, New Orleans gets hit with a category 5 AND Mexico gets hit with a category 5, Richard Lindzen has changed his mind, and JimF now cuts back his candytufts 3 weeks before Mother's Day rather than the current one or two, do you begin to question your stance on this? Is there any point that you say, "I still don't think that man is the primary cause to GW, but we add to it, and we need to start to do something about it?"
59215. Tarcisio José D at 03:05 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tom Curtis @ 32 Very interesting theory. But ..... I said, what the quality of its atmosphere makes it only absorbs IR radiation that rises in the atmosphere and free passes IR radiation that the atmosphere emits more toward the ground. I believe that there is this "rectifier diode" in our atmosphere and the greenhouse effect works both in one direction as another.
59216. Riccardo at 03:02 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       I'd like to add a few historical bits to what Tom wrote. First, I'm sure Tarciso didn't mean hydrogen as an absorbing gas. Indeed, Tyndall tried oxigen, nitrogen and hydrogen but reports a negative result, i.e. no absorption. Now we also know why. Tyndall would also have something to say on the saturation effect. In a Memoir published in 1872 he writes: "The acqueous vapour constitutes a local dam, by which the temperature at the earth's surface is deepened: the dam, however, finally overflows, and we give to space all that we receive from the sun" and Tyndall knew that water vapour is a stronger absorber than CO2. Following the same analogy, increasing absorption deepens the dam, i.e. increases temperature at the surface. This is in 1872 and it's not the full and correct explanation, but he was almost there.
59217. Tom Curtis at 02:36 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio Jose D @31, you continue to operate on an incorrect understanding of the green house effect. Specifically, the mechanism of the greenhouse effect is that the lower atmosphere absorbs infrared radiation from the warm surface, but the cold upper atmosphere emits IR radiation, half of which is radiated outwards, and hence leaves the Earth. The difference in energy intensity of the IR radiation from the surface and the IR radiation from the top of the atmosphere to space is the greenhouse effect. Applying this understanding, we examine your example of a grey atmosphere (one that absorbs equally at all IR wavelengths). In that case, increased GHG concentration will result in IR radiation from the surface being absorbed closer to the surface, but the absorbed energy will still be carried to the upper atmosphere by convection. However, the IR radiation to space will be emitted from higher in the atmosphere. This follows straightforwardly from the fact that the average altitude of emission to space will equal the average altitude of absorption of IR radiation in the same wavelengths from space. If increasing GHG concentration results in a shorter path to absorption for radiation from the surface, it will also result in a shorter path to absorption for IR radiation from space. Hence IR radiation from space will be absorbed higher in the atmosphere if we increase GHG concentrations. But then it follows that IR emission to space must also be from higher in the atmosphere. To a first approximation, however, higher is colder. Therefore with increased GHG, IR radiation to space will be from a colder layer of the atmosphere, and therefore emit less energy. The reduced energy emitted means that the greenhouse effect will be stronger with increased GHG. Of course, in the actual atmosphere, the stratosphere is warmer than the tropopause, so higher can be warmer. But in the actual atmosphere, not all IR frequencies are absorbed. Increased GHG strengthens the absorption on the edge of the absorption band, thereby increasing the effective altitude of radiation within the troposphere, and increasing the greenhouse effect. For a more detailed explanation, see here. I do not like this series of posts, for I am not sure that I am right. On the contrary, I continuously revise my beliefs in the light of new knowledge. But my core beliefs about AGW have simply not been challenged by so-called "skeptics" because they continuously present simplified models of the greenhouse effect, wrongly interpreted as being refutations of AGW. That they must resort to such specious arguments strongly suggests that while it is certain that some of my beliefs about AGW are false (if only I knew which), it is highly improbable that those false beliefs will be in fundamental aspects of the theory. As it stands, the evidence is overwhelming that those who understand the theory of the GHE accept it, while those who reject it (as Tarcisio does), clearly do not understand even the most basic features of the theory.
59218. Pete Dunkelberg at 02:16 AM on 7 May 2012
       West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams
       "Warm water from higher latitudes is melting the ice in the Antarctic." I suppose some people at research stations are making coffee, but I think the Southern Ocean produces some very strong currents of cold deep Antarctic water and is replenished in part by water advected from mid-depth Pacific waters. Mid depth Pacific water is warmed by water forced down by the strong trade winds of La Niña. Oh well, by now you've had a flash: "Lower latitudes! I meant lower!" ;)
59219. Tarcisio José D at 02:03 AM on 7 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       JimF @ 30 Thank you for participating in this conference Your question should be answered thus: Nobody has the ability to change the thinking of someone else, only the person himself. What we do is meet the person of ideas that will change your thinking. As in the case of AGW. In 1861, John Tyndal released his study measured the "absorption" of infrared rays by atmospheric gases and hydrogen showed that even the "absorbed" or "dark heat" at a rate of 0.33% at a distance of 48 "(1.22 meters). Now think, if we calculate the attenuation caused by hydrogen own, the earth's surface to the center of mass of the atmosphere, 5Km high'll realize that a millionth part of the heat energy will reach this point. So our atmosphere is totally opaque to the "dark heat". No matter the quantity or the quality of gas that composes the atmosphere. Based on this reasoning had to show how our planet balances the energy flow and our film tries to show exactly this mechanism. http://tyndallconference2011.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Tyndalls-1861-Lecture.pdf
59220. michael sweet at 23:50 PM on 6 May 2012
       West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams
       Deniers often say that the Antarctic ice cannot melt because the air is too cold. From Mspelto's reference: "The thinning has been noted as widespread around most of Anarctic Ice Shelves in a paper this week from Pritchard et al (2012). This paper from an international team from British Antarctic Survey, Utrecht University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Earth & Space Research has identified the losses are principally the result of increased basal melting from intrusion at depth of warm water. In the Smith Glacier area there is no significant surface melting, so basal melting must be the source. My emphasis. Warm water from higher latitudes is melting the ice in the Antarctic.
59221. JimF at 23:42 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio Jose D @ 19 Thanks, Jose, for responding. I watched your clip. But for me this only highlights the problem. You see, I am not a scientist...you, Tom and Eric are engaging in a conversation that loses me. I could never begin to respond. But most importantly, you failed to answer the question I asked, so I will ask you: I understand you are a skeptic and you have data that backs your belief. What would change your mind? Is there anything in the data you show that might increase or decrease that would make you say, "You know, maybe I was wrong...maybe there is something to this AGW?" Or conversely, is your mind immovable? I am thinking you reflect the latter, but let me know if I am wrong. I did see on your youtube site the most recent clip titled "The Alarmist Inquisition." Are you really in an inquisition? I don't think so unless it is the Monty Python type with a fluffy pillow. I'm just asking a question, not putting you on the rack.
59222. victull at 23:14 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Re post 28 The latest version of the Hansen paper I can find is here: Earth’s energy imbalance and implications J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato1,2, P. Kharecha1,2, and K. von Schuckmann3 Published: 22 December 2011 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.pdf I would draw your attention to: Fig. 11. Observed and calculated planetary energy imbalance, smoothed with moving 6-yr trend. which clearly shows a declining overall global imbalance in recent years.
59223. victull at 22:43 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       dana 1981 @26 How do conclude that the imbalance is growing when it was about 0.9W/M2 and over the last 5-6 years is about 0.6W/sq.m? Are you talking about Ocean Heat Content instead? Eric @23 A long term increase in imbalance - that is not what I concluded from Hansen's paper "Earth's Energy Imbalance and Implications" published in 2011. Please give me a link to any update on this if Hansen has changed his results recently.
59224. mspelto at 21:12 PM on 6 May 2012
       West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams
       The MacGregor et al (2012) is an excellent paper. We saw a pattern of widespread thinning and retreat and the disintegration of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. Now we are seeing the same processes in the Amundsen Sea. As ice shelves thin they are less buttressed, more prone to rifting and can accelerate due to the reduced backforces, which leads to acceleration. Smith Glacier is the main glacier feeding Crosson Ice Shelf
59225. Paul D at 20:19 PM on 6 May 2012
       West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams
       And now the good news... Things aren't quite as bad in Greenland: http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2012/05/greenland-glaciers-on-the-move.html Although, as the articles says, the end result is the same, it just might take longer.
59226. jyyh at 14:40 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Ok the more serious attempt to answer this: Why we're sure we're right To Claim:'we are right', we must define the words. 'We' has been traditionally been interpreted as being a specific communion of entities which can understand the english language, that means the humans who understand that this is written in english. 'We' has a broader definition too but I think this suffices for now. The specific communion of entities WRT to the context here would be the people who understand how the world works, i.e. the physics, AND accept there is a world which might be defined here as an assortment of environmental variables outside the entitys (if we wish to call a solipsist an entity) head, in the sense of the proverb: 'One can make a fence but not eternally block the world outside'. The dinosaurs of old times got this too late according to the prevailing theory of 'why there are no dinosaur fossils found on the layers of rock dated, by radiological measures that have and still can be reproduced in the laboratory containing an isotope counter, after the occurrence of a large crater on the Yucatan?' We humans (here encompassing all of our species) have at least had LONEOS and Catalina surveys among others, looking outside our comfort zone (broadly, the human biotope on earth (it's pretty large compared to nearly all other species on earth, only some marine species have had it wider; of mammals on land the next most widespread would be the rat and the dog I guess)), so some development has happened. Most people notice the outside world as a kid when they get hurt, so it's quite natural to be afraid of it. One might even make a bold assumption that the so-called 'theory of gravity' is accepted more readily than the GHG-theory because people have continuing first hand experience of it (f.e. saggy eyes). 'right' is the tricky bit here, taken out of context this could mean almost anything. However, here we, as separate entities sharing some common chraracteristics (f.e. we're humans who can read and understand english), which is why the use of 'we' or 'these (inclusive)' (in case there are artificial intelligencies present) maybe allowed, have some context. In the opening chapter Rob Honeycutt tells us this is about climate issues and about being sure of these. So we might take the headline 'right' to mean 'certain', like an entity capable of self-recognition is. Talking to oneself isn't very fruitful, though, and one might even define the word 'talk' so it necessarily includes a receptive other entity, so if one uses language, it necessarily follows one assumes there is an environment that has beings capable of understanding your words, and thus there would be no 'Matrix' or at least if there was there would be no way of talking of it. Oops, might have made an error there. 'are' is just a statement of being. So, after a brief exploration on the meaning of words, on to the subject. We're certain of the GHG effect and AGW because we talk (exchange information with others) of the measurements (one sort of entities), if necessary we check them repeatedly (in order to rule out the possibility of changing physical constants), try to find the simplest way to make sense of them (no need to complicate things in science, it's hard enough as it is (ref. above text on the meaning of words)), and have come to a conclusion there is a greenhouse effect (satellites give us the normal temperature in space this far from the sun), and that humans can increase the DWR (down-welling radiation) by adding insulation to the roof... oops meant to say CO2 in the atmosphere. I'm tempted to end this note to a thinly veiled insult to some people willing to lie and obfuscate this issue, instead I link to this: http://xkcd.com/54/
59227. dana1981 at 14:02 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       We'll have some more posts on the global energy balance in the near future, and hopefully a published paper, if all goes as planned. Suffice it to say that the imbalance is still growing. Our recent Levitus post discusses a good demonstration of this continued growth.
59228. DSL at 13:18 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Yah, victull, what do you make of that? Everyone's wrong about the global warming, yah? I think a few of the warmistas tried to figure out why such a thing might happen. I mean, there's no other forcing change in the period . . . well, except solar dropping toward its 11-year low . . . and increased aerosols . . . and 1998 was a massive El Nino. Must be them darn supernovas gettin' all quiet. Still, it wasn't exactly chilly during the 2000s, it being the hottest recorded decade. And I hear ocean heat content was rolling right along, so nothing to get too worked up about. I mean, look at all those cooling trends. You'd think someone would notice the temperature dropping like that so many times.
59229. Eric (skeptic) at 13:17 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tom, thanks for that feedback. I'll have to read up some more because my impression was a little different.
59230. Eric (skeptic) at 13:00 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       victull, the "since 1998" idea is thoroughly addressed in threads here such as this one and many others. The paper I linked to is Hansen's latest so I will assume that it represents his most current conclusion: a long term increase in imbalance.
59231. barry1487 at 12:45 PM on 6 May 2012
       rbutr Puts Climate Information In Front of Those Who Need It Most
       It would seem to be a good idea, assuming that enough people are actually interested in having their opinions tested. However, I think most people will deploy the app to fortify and propagate their preferred view, and the likeliest consequence would to dumb down the audience. A creationist vexed by a pro-evolution weblog page will now have a short-cut to a counter-argument, whereas previously they would have had to do a bit more work to find what they want, and thus be more likely to chance upon other tracts on evolution that will be bypassed by this rebuttal router. I've picked up a lot of useful information when researching a topic under discussion, because the search engine takes me to places and opinions that I wouldn't have visited if there had been a direct route. The best corrollaries of these websearch adventures are more context, clearer overview, and getting a better idea of how the topic at hand relates to others that may augment my view on it. "Don't like what you've read? Tired of searching amongst millions of web pages for the argument you want, or that pithy quote that sums up the logical depravity of that wordy schmuck who is wrong on the internet? Talking points and counter-arguments are now at your fingertips. Simply copy'n'paste! Or paraphrase slightly so you can seem more intelligent! Pwning your opposition has never been easier!" Perhaps that's too cynical. I'm curious to know how this application gets used - that would make for an interesting study on 'nettitudes'. Are there plans to monitor this? What are they?
       Moderator Response: Hi Barry,

       The interesting outcome of someone using rbutr to fortify and propogate their own view, is that it still helps engage them in the opposing perspective of the argument. In order to add rebuttals, or to click through to rebuttals you agree with, you are required to see the other side. Of course, people can choose to not read those other articles, but this is all true of the internet in general, and nothing to do with rbutr's functionality.

       My experience in online debates (forums, comments etc) is that Creationists (or whoever) simply don't go to pro-evolution websites. They read the website which reinforces their own beleif, and then repeat the arguments verbatim. This is how it already is. The whole point of rbutr is to have them install the extension so that during their standard browsing of their favourite belief confirming website, they might occasionally let curiosity drive them to click on that rbutr button and see what the other side is saying against their beliefs.

       Because seriously, you don't need rbutr to reinforce your own beliefs - everything around us already does that. This is really the only tool which is purposefully designed to do the opposite! So in order to use it that way, would just be an inefficient waste of time, fraught with the danger of accidentally looking at an opposing perspective!

       You also seem to be arguing that streamlining the process of finding 'the best' rebuttal to any given page is somehow a negative. By this logic, you should write to Google and tell them to stop optimising their search results, because it is better when you get stuff you didn't really want. If you want serendipitous discovery - install StumbleUpon. If you want to meander around the web looking for random arguments, then just browse directories. But if you want a rebuttal to a page, use rbutr. Afterall, how do you know that the best rebuttal to the page won't also 'take you to places and opinions that [you] wouldn't have visited'? Afterall, the whole point of rbutr, just like Google, is to suggest material to you which you don't know about.... so you don't know what you might find on the other side of that link.

59232. victull at 12:21 PM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       eric @17 Your graph shows a pretty flat imbalance at about 0.9W/M2 since 1998. James Hansen is claiming about 0.6W/M2 over the last 5-6 years. This confirms my suggestion that there is doubt about whether or not the imbalance is growing or shrinking.
59233. Tom Curtis at 12:18 PM on 6 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       Cole @30, the core of Svensmark's new paper is the correlation he has shown between biodiversity: and his estimate of rates of near by super novas: You can't see the correlation between the two charts? Neither can I. The reason is that Svensmark purports to show a correlation between marine invertebrate biodiversity and his estimated supernova rate. He just assumes, or simply fails to mention, that marine invertebrate biodiversity is a good proxy for biodiversity in general. It is not. It is not even a good proxy for marine biodiversity after the great radiation of fish in the Devonian. So we have this puzzle, why is marine invertebrate biodiversity strongly effected by supernova rates, while all other forms of biodiversity are not? The most likely cause for the apparent correlation is no cause, ie, pure coincidence. This is particularly the case as Svensmark does not even show a correlation with marine invertebrate biodiversity, but only with marine invertebrate biodiversity as normalized for sea level. There is an unusually large change in sea level coincident with with the Permian/Triassic boundary associated with the formation, and then break-up of Pangea. The associated change in sea level is sufficiently large that Svensmark's untested normalization formula is unlikely to properly compensate for the effects of changes in sea level on marine invertebrate biodiversity. That means the correlation Svensmark is trumpeting is almost certainly nothing more than the coincidence of the estimated period of peak local supernova rate with the formation of Pangea. This is particularly the case as the correlation his asserts is poor outside the large excursion at the Permian/Triassic boundary. Unless, of course, Svensmark has stunning new evidence that Galactic Cosmic Rays cause continental drift.
59234. Tom Curtis at 11:53 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio Jose D @19, Your first video gives an account of the dry and moist adiabatic rate, and the consequences of surface heating, which is all very well, up until 6:40 seconds when you say, "That is the green house effect". That is not the greenhouse effect. You might as well say that Newton's second law of motion (F=ma) is the Universal Law of Gravitation (F=G(m(1)*m(2))/r^2). I'll certainly second Eric (skeptic)'s recommendation that you read my introduction to the greenhouse effect; and take up any issues there. However, I disagree with his comment about T-skew plots. Below the tropopause, the concentrations of greenhouse gases, at least within normal ranges, is irrelevant to the adiabatic lapse rates, except in that CO2 has a different specific heat to nitrogen or oxygen. Given relative concentrations, the contribution of GHG to the specific heat of air, and hence to the dry and moist adiabatic lapse rates is minimal.
59235. muoncounter at 11:48 AM on 6 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       Cole, Your #30 seem to be referring to the latest from Svensmark. Already noted here. Any guesses as why he's the sole author of this? Agee's result is a clear swing-and-a-miss for Svensmark. The rallying cry 'do more research' is a valid one -- especially as the existing research hasn't done what was claimed.
59236. jyyh at 11:29 AM on 6 May 2012
       rbutr Puts Climate Information In Front of Those Who Need It Most
       Nope. I like to know when I watch space-nazies. I won't be endorsing the debate between the non-conformal theory of angel-flight against gravitation.
59237. Eric (skeptic) at 11:25 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Tarcisio José D your linked video is partly addressed here to which I would only add that the shape of skew-T plots shown in the linked video is very dependent on concentrations of GHGs such as CO2.
59238. Cole at 10:46 AM on 6 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       Hmm, the link to the paper didn't post. Here it is again. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2012.20953.x/abstract
59239. Tarcisio José D at 10:31 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       JimF @7 I am very sure that I am right in saying that all who believe in the warming of our planet is caused by CO2 are totally wrong, no matter which way bearing. I have two movies posted on youtube that clearly show that global warming is completely natural. This .... The_greenhouse_efect_completely-natural And the other is "our atmospher is opaque". Watch and then comment. ok
59240. threadShredder at 10:04 AM on 6 May 2012
       rbutr Puts Climate Information In Front of Those Who Need It Most
       So lay readers of legitimate science and opinion who lack the background to know when they're being duped will also be linked to specious, deliberate misinformation, right? Is that a wonderful thing?
       Moderator Response: Hi threadShredder,

       I think this is a common concern and one that deserves a detailed reply.

       First of all, the idea that someone who would go out of their way to find legitimate science in the first place, would then be the sort of person to be swayed by 'specious, deliberate misinformation' doesn't seem justified to me. In my experience, people are already convinced by the 'specious' misinformation well before they ever come across legitimate science, and secondly, the sort of people who look for legitimate science, aren't likely to be easily convinced by nonsense. So immediately, the concern that good information will be rebutted with bad information shouldn't be concerning at all - the people who are likely to be more swayed by the bad information vs the good information probably already had their minds made up before the arguments were made.

       Following on from that scenario though, said person who has chosen to ignore solid science and be 'duped' by 'specious, deliberate misinformation' will hopefully be presented with yet another rbutr alert to a rebuttal of the misinformation. Afterall, the information is all already out there. All rbutr is attempting to do is connect the right information to the pages which need to be rebutted. And for every page full of misinformation, there is already a collection of pages rebutting them. All we're asking for, is some help finding these articles so that we can add them as rebuttals to the misinformation.

       Because now, our scenario has this person sequentially exposed to legitimate science, specious misinformation, and then a detailed deconstruction of why the misinformation was specious - and hopefully has enough information to actually have a *chance* of changing their mind from their previously already decided state. Which I am sure you may have noticed by now, is quite a challenging thing to achieve.

       Is this a wonderful thing? Please indulge me in my favourite quote of all time, which pretty much sums up my philosophy, and why I think rbutr *is indeed* a wonderful thing:

       "John Stuart Mill argued that silencing an opinion is "a peculiar evil." If the opinion is right, we are robbed of the "opportunity of exchanging error for truth"; and if it's wrong, we are deprived of a deeper understanding of the truth in its "collision with error." If we know only our own side of the argument, we hardly know even that: it becomes stale, soon learned by rote, untested, a pallid and lifeless truth." - Carl Sagan

       And please consider that ultimately, you can choose to sit on the sideline decrying how the system may be abused, or you can join in the fight and link every piece of misinformation you ever find to the best rebuttals of that misinformation that you know, and help expose truth to those who have stumbled across error...

       Shane Greenup

59241. Cole at 10:02 AM on 6 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       From the Agee paper: 'This represents a possible observational disconnect, and the update presented here continues to support the need for further research on the GCR-Cloud hypothesis and its possible role in the science of climate change.' Muon you seem to have left something out- The second half of the conclusions... Research on the GCR-cloud correlations must continue, particularly in view of the two physical mechanisms mentioned above (as well as the uncertainty in the reliability of the ISCCP lower troposphere cloudiness to show the proposed correlations). Finally, it is clearly known that other factors can affect mean global cloudiness besides solar variability, due to internal forcing mechanisms on different time scales (such as ENSO).
59242. jimb at 09:49 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       @ 11 victul- maybe he was reading a quote from MSNBC which reported the 'recantation' of global warming 'guru' J.E. Lovelock -http://m.edmontonsun.com/2012/04/30/global-warming-guru-says-not-so-fast who was quoted as saying ""The climate is doing its usual tricks. There's nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now," He doesn't specify where he got the information about the 'frying world"
59243. Cole at 09:37 AM on 6 May 2012
       ConCERN Trolling on Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change
       The forbrush decrease paper was measuring the short term effects on cosmic rays (and temperature) caused by solar flares. The effect is measurable on a scale of hours. Long term changes in CR intensity are caused by shifts in the suns magnetosphere. The "what about the years without" statement is ridiculous. The Agee paper reports on a "possible" disconnect and it is widely recognized that we can't really observe changes in global cloudiness as we would need stationary instruments in space to watch every area daily. So the results of said paper are spurious at best. Furthermore the effect isn't small as you are attempting to claim. Here's a more recent paper for you. Here are the main results: The long-term diversity of life in the sea depends on the sea-level set by plate tectonics and the local supernova rate set by the astrophysics, and on virtually nothing else. The long-term primary productivity of life in the sea – the net growth of photosynthetic microbes – depends on the supernova rate, and on virtually nothing else. Exceptionally close supernovae account for short-lived falls in sea-level during the past 500 million years, long-known to geophysicists but never convincingly explained.. As the geological and astronomical records converge, the match between climate and supernova rates gets better and better, with high rates bringing icy times. "As for the palaeobiology, remarkable connections to the longterm histories of life and the carbon cycle have shown up unbidden (Figs. 20, 21, 22). Biodiversity, CO2 and δ13C all appear so highly sensitive to supernovae in our Galactic neighbourhood that the biosphere seems to contain a reflection of the sky." AGW-0
       Moderator Response: TC: Edited to include link.
59244. Eric (skeptic) at 09:27 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       victull, here's a paper with an estimate of the change in the imbalance: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1105.1140.pdf with the pertinent imbalance trend from fig 7d (assumes deep ocean mixing hence a slow climate response)
59245. scaddenp at 07:02 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Sapient Fridge. Me too. It's good to know the answer to that question. I also make it clear what reasonable evidence would convince me that climate theory has serious flaws.If no evidence is good enough or question avoided, then no point producing evidence or even a serious discussion. As far as I can see must pseudo-skeptics are politically-driven, convinced any solution might limit their "freedom", raise taxes, expand government, or heaven forbid, involve international cooperation. No point in a private argument, and for public arguments (blogs), only worth rebutting errors for the benefit of other listeners.
59246. rockytom at 05:06 AM on 6 May 2012
       HadSST3: A detailed look
       Just a note of positive congratulations to Kevin C and Bob Tisdale. This is an example of what this blog is about. No negatives here; just positives with the readers best interests in the science in mind.
59247. Bob Loblaw at 02:14 AM on 6 May 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Hansen 1981
       pauls: Do you have a reference showing that a "GCM with a realistic model of the ocean" is run in a mode where it only uses a slab ocean that is "little more than a surface with a low heat capacity"? Such "swamp models" were very common in the early days of GCMs (i.e., back in the 1960s and 1970s - remember: I'm "ancient") due to computational issues, but I can't see how it would be of any use to develop a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM to investigate how climate reacts when full ocean dynamics are included, and then shut off the ocean dynamics to investigate the long-term sensitivity. In other words, my hunch is that you're wrong, but my mind is open to whatever references and evidence you can provide.
59248. Bob Loblaw at 02:08 AM on 6 May 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Hansen 1981
       John: "ancient", when it comes to age, generally tends to follow the rule that anyone older than 10*(my age)^0.5 is "ancient". For the young whipper-snapper who is 30-31, square root of that times 10 is about 55, so I am ancient by his standards, as I just turned 55. When he was 16, 40-year-olds seemed "ancient" - and I would have been 40, so I was ancient to him back then, too. As I am old enough to remember discussing Hansen et al, 1981, in grad school, I must be really ancient. [By the time you get to be 100, you are ancient.]
59249. ajki at 01:09 AM on 6 May 2012
       There's no empirical evidence
       Within chapter "CO2 traps heat" is a pdf download link to: Philipona, R., B. Dürr, C. Marty, A. Ohmura, and M. Wild (2004), Radiative forcing - measured at Earth's surface - corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03202, doi:10.1029/2003GL018765. The pdf is not (directly, May 2012) reachable through the link (agu.org). I did not check wether it is paywalled or requires registration/login before reading. Link to the abstract page on agu.org Currently (May 2012) Dr Marty provides the pdf over his personal page on slf.ch (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF). Since this is one of the "directly measured" evidence papers cited by many (IPPC 2007, Rahmstorf&Schellnhuber...), there should be a safer and better accessible place for it.
59250. muoncounter at 00:18 AM on 6 May 2012
       Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
       Unfortunately, victull's claim is too ambiguous to seriously debunk. 'Doubts there's been surface temp increase' ... siince ...when? The end of the last glacial maximium? Last December? It is exactly this type of 'throw-down' denial that shows the weakness of the denialist position. And shows how easy the deniers think it is to fool the average person with vague claims. That's how we know we're right!

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