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Comments 59401 to 59450:

59401. Delmar at 09:57 AM on 29 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       Peter7723 Solar has been dropping in price and hopefully should continue as it is not a mature industry. But remember that aluminum exports come back as solar panels! I don't see the same ability to reduce the cost of wind, for the reason that wind has a high proportion of its cost going to using existing technology for a new application. Eg the costs are broken as follows;- Large concrete base- mature technology Large steel pylon - mature technology Large blades - blade technology is advanced but this size is not mature Planetary gearbox - mature but some volume cost reduction possible Generator - mature With production being from china, any cost reductions require the yuan to continue to be held low.
59402. RW1 at 09:39 AM on 29 April 2012
       Climate sensitivity is low
       I meant to say: "...I stand by my claim that if anything a watt of additional GHG 'forcing' would be a little less than a watt of additional solar forcing in its ability to warm the atmosphere (and ulimately the surface).
59403. RW1 at 09:33 AM on 29 April 2012
       Climate sensitivity is low
       Tom Curtis, Regarding my other point. Unlike additional solar forcing, with additional GHG 'forcing' there is no increased energy coming into the system, leaving only the existing internal energy available. Since GHG warming requires the troposphere to warm and the pressure is higher in the troposphere than it is in the stratosphere, I stand by my claim that if anything a watt of additional GHG 'forcing' would be a little less than a watt of solar in its ability to warm the atmosphere (and ulimately the surface).
59404. RW1 at 09:20 AM on 29 April 2012
       Climate sensitivity is low
       Tom Curtis, Let me clarify what I'm trying to say: Designating the +1.1C as the 'zero-feedback' starting point from the so-called 'Planck response' (i.e. the effective emissivity) is not valid because it arbitrarily separates the physical processes and feedbacks in the system that will act on additional forcings, like from GHGs, from those that currently act to maintain and control the system from the forcing of the Sun, for which there is no physical or logical basis. Put another way, one can't derive the 'zero-feedback' starting point from the absolute surface response to solar forcing, which itself is the net result of and maintained by all the physical processes and feedbacks in the system, and then claim there is some nebulous feedback acting on top of this that will amplify 'forcings' or imbalances even further, let alone 3-6x times greater. The 'brakes' - if you will, have already been put on all the feedbacks in the system from the many years and years of forcing from the Sun, including especially water vapor and clouds, as the two are the most dynamic components of the whole atmosphere. If you think they have not been put on (the brakes), why did the net surface energy flux from the forcing of the Sun 'stop' at only 390 W/m^2? Why didn't the feedbacks in the system, including especially water vapor and clouds, ultimately manifest themselves to an 'effective' emissivity of 0.22 (3.7/16.6 = 0.22), where a net surface energy flux of 1077 W/m^2 (about 100C!) has 837 W/m^2 'blocked' by the atmosphere and re-circulated back to the surface (240/1077 = 0.22)? In short, the absolute solar amplification factor of about 1.6 (390/240 = 1.625) is already giving a measure of incremental sensitivity to additional forcings or imbalances, only it represents an upper bound on sensitivity because net negative feedback on imbalances (a net response less than 1.6) is required for basic stability and maintenance of the current energy balance from the forcing of the Sun. If the logic is still not clear, here it is broken down into a series of separate questions: Do you agree that at the Earth's current global average temperature of 288K, the Earth emits about 390 W/m^2 from its surface (assuming an emissivity of 1 or very close to 1)? Do you agree that the globally averaged solar constant is about 342 W/m^2 and the average albedo is about 0.3, resulting in a net incident solar power of about 240 W/m^2? Do you agree that the 240 W/m^2 of incident post albedo solar power is forcing the climate system? Do you agree that the 240 W/m^2 forcing the system from the Sun results in an amplification at the surface of about 390 W/m^2 entering the surface from the atmosphere to sustain 288K? Do you agree that this accounts for all the physical processes and feedbacks in the system? If not, why haven't all the physical processes and feedbacks fully manifested themselves after billions of years of forcing from the Sun? Or even after the last few hundreds or thousands of years of forcing from the Sun? Do you agree that in order to amplify +3.7 W/m^2 of 'forcing' from 2xCO2 into +3C at the surface it requires +16.6 W/m^2 entering the surface from the atmosphere (288K = 390 W/m^2; 291K or +3C = 406.6 W/m^2 and 406.6 - 390 = 16.6 W/m^2)? Do you agree that watts of GHG 'forcing' and watts of solar forcing must obey the same physics in the system? That is a watt is a watt, independent of where it last originates from. Do you agree that a watt of post albedo solar forcing and watt of GHG 'forcing' can only do the same amount of work? Do you agree that 390/240 = 1.625? Do you agree that 16.6/3.7 = 4.5? Do you agree that 4.5 is 2.8x times greater than 1.625? If watts are watts, how can watts of GHG 'forcing' have a 3x greater ability to warm the surface than watts forcing the system from the Sun?
59405. Andy Skuce at 08:56 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Tom, yes, it's more than likely I got my numbers muddled. It's interesting to compare 1% of GDP for combating climate change with the shares of GDP allocated to defence or healthcare.
59406. Tom Curtis at 08:31 AM on 29 April 2012
       Climate sensitivity is low
       RW1's original claim was that the forcing from Greenhouse Gases was three times that from solar. In defense of that claim he refers us to the ratio of incident solar radiation to upward long wave surface radiation to surface absorbed solar radiation, or 2.46 (396/161, see diagram below). With hesitance I say that RW1 should have used the ratio of LW surface radiation to total absorbed solar radiation, or 1.66 (396/239). I say "with hesitance" because his entire formulation is incorrect. For a start, 239 W/m^2 is not the solar "forcing". A "forcing" is the change in a value between two different, specified times. By convention, the reference time is 1750, notionally the pre-industrial era. Further, 396 W/m^2 is not the "greenhouse gas forcing" In fact, the difference between the upward LW surface radiation and the upward LW radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is the total greenhouse effect, but even that is not the total greenhouse forcing both because a forcing is a change between two times, and because it includes feedbacks as well as forcings. (For what it is worth, the ratio of the total greenhouse effect to total insolation is 157/239, or approximately 66%. What is more, the insolation contributes approximately 80% of mean global temperature, with the greenhouse effect contributing the majority of the extra warming and redistribution of heat, which equalizes temperatures contributing the rest.) Ignoring the terminological issues, which render RW1's claim almost incoherent, the simple fact is that the total greenhouse effect acts as a multiplier of energy from the sun. If we were in the dark of space, no amount of greenhouse gases would raise our temperature appreciably above the 2.5 K temperature of the cosmic background radiation. Therefore if insolation increased, then the total greenhouse effect also increases in proportion. For small increases in insolation, the ratio of effective insolation (incoming sunlight minus albedo) to upward LW surface radiation would remain constant. And therefore the increase in temperature from an increase in insolation of 1 W/m^2 would be approximately the same as the increase from a 1 W/m^2 forcing from CO2. Turning to RW1's second point, warming a gas does result in expansion, which does perform work. But a GHG forcing warms the troposphere but cools the stratosphere. In contrast an increased solar forcing warms both troposphere and stratosphere. Because the solar forcing is warming more gas (by a small percentage), if RW1's argument had any merit, it would indicate that solar forcing was weaker than GHG forcing. In fact, however, it is without merit. It does indicate that solar forcing must use more energy for a given increase in temperature, all else being equal. But energy leaving the system is not a function of how much energy is stored in the system, but of surface and atmospheric temperatures. Because of this, the increase in temperature is the only factor in determining if equilibrium has been restored, and the equilibrium temperature for equal solar and GHG forcings is approximately the same. I write this solely for the benefit of interested readers who may be confused by RW1's ramblings. He himself has a long demonstrated inability to learn or apply even the most basic of the relevant concepts, so I doubt he will gain any benefit from it. For the same reason I am unlikely to respond to any response he makes to my post. Again, he has a long history of simply regurgitating his initial confusion in slightly different words and imagining that thereby he is "debating". At the moment I do not have the time to waste pandering to his misconception.
59407. Tom Curtis at 07:02 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Andy S @ Nordhaus approach would cost 3.2% of world GDP for a single year, but much less than that of the GDP over many years. More ambitious schemes, which I believe are necessary, will cost around 1% annually. It is the later that are directly comparable to the annual cost of modern sewage systems. Of course, we had better not point this out to the Republican right. If they learn of that, they may well demand the end of "... the stifling regulation on sewage disposal that has caused the current economic in these United States" (fake quote for parody only).
59408. rog at 06:56 AM on 29 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       Additional footage http://www.abc.net.au/tv/changeyourmind/webextras/
59409. Tom Curtis at 06:50 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       The video above comes from a TV series called, Earth: The operators Manual. While,regrettably, I have not seen the series, I have read the companion book of the same title. I highly recommend it. In it, Dr Alley writes:

       "Overall, hard-nosed real economic science, as applied by real economists in a classically economic approach, finds that a measured response to global warming is economically justified now (or, more accurately, is already overdue). This is not a big attack on global warming; in the Norhhaus optimization, CO2 rises to 685 ppm in 2100, almost 2.5 times the preindustrial level, with estimated warming in the model of 5.6 F (3.1 C for 2100 and 9.5 F for 2200 (5.3 C) relative to temperature in 1900. The optimal path invests $2 trillion to stop $5 trillion in damages, but damages totaling $17 trillion are allowed to happen. Note that all of these trillion-dollar figures are in "present value" - discounted from the future - so they represent much more money in the future."

       (pp 193-194) In the next chapter he continues:

       "The optimal economic path outlined in chapter 15 would cost well under 1 percent of the world economy per year, with benefits outweighing the costs. But that parth allowed a lot of warming to occur. Enhanced national security, insurance against disasters, and fairness to others were among the additional arguments that favored more action sooner. Several groups ... have attempted to estimate the costs of stabilizing the climate while still supplying abundant energy. These estimates generally ignore the benefits of avoiding climate change and present only the costs. Those costs depend a lot on how rapidly the stabilization is made. For plans that stop the warming at no more than a few degrees within a few decades, costs generally are in the neighborhood of 1 percent of the world's economy (gross domestic product, or GDP)."

       (pp 209-210) Later in the chapter he writes:

       "This [sewage] system is far form free. The Organisaton for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated the cost of clean water for its members (much of the "developed world") in 2002 as roughly 0.5 to 2.4 percent of household income, with the costs in the United States being the lowest. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office produced an even lower estimate for the United States, with sewer and water bills accounting for 0.5 percent of household income, but noted that investment in the system was inadequate and that growth of expenditure to 0.6 to 0.9 percent of household income would be required to maintain the infrastructure. Connecting a new house to sewer and water systems, or installing a well and septic system, often accounts for notably more than 1 percent of the construction costs - rates vary hugely, but where I live, simply connecting the plumbing already in a new house to the sewer and water accounts for 3 percent of the typical home price. The pipes and toilets in the house cost a good bit of money, and so do the toilets at the office or the stadium, and the porta-potties at the local soccer fields. Plumbers to install and repair the system also cost money. A reasonable estimate is that the cost of our sewer-water system is similar to, or a bit higher than, the estimated cost of solving energy and global warming , representing something like 1 percent of the world economy."

       (p 217, Emphasis added.) So, contrary to Steve from Austin, the analogy between CO2 emissions and the "terrible shower" is the economic cost of doing something about it. Given the nature of Steve's political rant, he is unlikely to be convinced by a 'self-identified registered Republican and "right of center" political ideology' (Morris Ward, review at Amazon). But the fact remains that most of the economic and technical developments over the 20th century were inconceivable to those in the 19th century. That a problem appears insurmountable is no reason to believe that it is, and much less reason to stop trying to find a solution. What is more, and contrary to Steve, the problem of global warming only seems insurmountable politically. Technically it is already within our grasp. Unfortunately we are afflicted by a policy paralysis by those who for ideological reasons cannot accept either that there is a problem, or a way forward.
59410. ubrew12 at 06:29 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Although Skeptical Science is my preferred source for climate science information, I have found Climate Crocks to be required reading, not so much for its climate science reportage, but for its reportage on alternative energy. I read it with interest not just because its so timely, but because, frankly, the news is so good on the alt energy front. Although its easy to get glum when considering inaction on AGW, when you read about all the advances in alt energy its a real shot of optimism. We really live in kind of a golden age for this kind of innovation. And, it seems, nowhere is the news as good as in solar PV. In any case, to respond to something 'steve from virginia' said (#2): "photovoltaic materials are dependent upon high order fossil fuels". Not really. PV is reduced sand. It requires a lot of energy, but that energy could easily come from... solar PV.
59411. Andy Skuce at 06:19 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Steve @2 Alley's argument is that the cost, as a fraction of GDP, of installing a sewage system is in the same ballpark as William Nordhaus's estimate of the cost of the "economically optimal path". Even though I don't think Nordhaus is either a "liar or a fool" I do think his optimal path is far too slow, so I would assume that the pace of change away from fossil fuels that I think is necessary would cost more than 1% of GDP. Job #1 in the climate crisis is not waste removal but drastically slowing down the rate of waste CO2 emissions. In all honesty, I can't make much sense of most of your post and I hope that your economic analysis turns out to be alarmist. I don't understand, for example, what you mean by the "waste-based economy" or by questions like "How do solar panels make new solar panels ... or can they?". Alley isn't greenwashing, he's trying to argue that there's hope that we can prevent the worst happening. Anger and despair are natural reactions to the mess we are in but yielding to those emotions won't result in better outcomes. What do you propose we do?
59412. KBow at 04:15 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Steve @ 2 These two problems have the same end result – excess human waste. He is not suggesting changing the sewer system. They have different causes; therefore they need their own solutions. The answer to human waste was to have an efficient system to remove it from populated areas. The answer to excessive carbon production is to reduce the amount being produced. If you do that effectively, it will not need to be removed from the atmosphere. The last paragraphs sound like you may be discussing the failure of capitalism… not sure though. A renewable based planet will be far more efficient and sustainable than carbon fuels regardless of the state of the economy or economic structure.
59413. steve from virginia at 03:14 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Richard Alley compares apples to oranges as water resources are moved (largely by gravity and the freely provided hydrology cycle) from one place to another: water and sewer systems are diversions. CO2 and other waste gases in the atmosphere have no place to be removed to and the means to remove them does not exist. Instead, the source of the gases must be replaced: the sewer equivalent is that no human waste shall be produced! Neat trick and not cheap. What would replace for water in a waste removal regime? Neat trick number-two and not cheap, either. What to do with the clean (replacement) energy? This is never mentioned but assumed: the running of billions of cars, the freeways and subdivisions that girdle the world, the office and retail parks; the jet vacations, vacation 'homes'; the import of millions of shipping containers filled with poisoned Chinese dog/child food, the eating hamburgers and 'shakes' bought in drive throughs, the watching of teevee and holding down of luxury marketing jobs ... where young, stylish hipsters lounge in lofts or massive concrete towers sending emails to others just like them ... How do solar panels make new solar panels ... or can they? (No, polycrystaline and other photovoltaic materials are dependent upon high order fossil fuels and installation/grid is entirely petroleum dependent). It's not so much that the (insert misleading argument here) gadgets are unaffordable, it is that they do not return any value and as a consequence cannot be funded with credit. It is self-evident that the absence of value within the industrial enterprise as a whole is responsible for its ongoing and accelerating bankruptcy, at this point including the destruction of economies of entire countries including the largest ones: not to escape the holocaust are the precious greenwashing evasion which cannot afford themselves or anything else. Nothing works but stringent conservation at all levels: the outcome of all the current regime of tactics and evasions is conservation by other means, the stripping out of all credit and the reduction of all wealth to the worth of associated debts = zero. Time is running short: Greece is gone into the abyss, Spain is on the sled, France and now China are on the ramp behind Spain. You can run but you cannot hide. There are mercifully no nuclear reactors in Greece, there are 112 in both France and (bankrupt) Japan. The argument presented here ignores economic realities: all industrial enterprises are credit-dependent including creation of water and sewer systems, solar panels, windmills, reactors of every type, 'green' cars, etc. What is bankrupt is the entire waste-based economy from top to bottom: anyone suggesting that such a thing can be preserved with low-cost adjustments at the margins is a liar or a fool. [-inflammatory snipped-] Thank you!
59414. R. Gates at 02:36 AM on 29 April 2012
       Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
       Dr. Alley is certainly one of my climate heroes. Of course, some skeptics, aligned as they are with funding from the Koch Brothers and others, will try to hold on to their fossil fuel based world as long as they can. Human...all too human.
59415. Tsumetai at 02:23 AM on 29 April 2012
       Levitus et al. Find Global Warming Continues to Heat the Oceans
       

       David Stockwell is discussing this point here:

       For his next trick, I guess he'll prove that the height of Everest has been vastly overestimated by looking at measurements taken three-quarters of the way up. Brilliant!
59416. John Hartz at 01:46 AM on 29 April 2012
       It's cosmic rays
       muoncounter: But what about the Battlestar Gallactica effect?
59417. Bernard J. at 01:19 AM on 29 April 2012
       Climate sensitivity is low
       

       GHG induced warming results in the warming of the atmosphere, does it not? Warming air expands and in doing so does work against its surroundings, which requires some of the internal energy to be expended, leaving less available to heat the atmosphere (and ultimately the surface).

       RW1, an understanding of thermodynamics is not really something that you have under your belt, is it? I'm sure others will pick your statements to pieces, but do yourself a favour and in preparation learn about adiabatic processes. Seriously.
59418. muoncounter at 01:16 AM on 29 April 2012
       It's cosmic rays
       A couple of notes on Svensmark's latest. Let's start with the worst news: Origin of Cosmic Rays Not What Was Thought Results announced at nearly the same time as Svensmark's paper show that gamma ray bursts from supernovae are not associated with the expected neutrino flux. This calls into question the entire mechanism of cosmic ray origin underlying Svensmark's paper - as GRBs are clearly connected with supernovae. From the MNRAS announcement of Svensmark's paper: To obtain this result on the variety of life, or biodiversity, [Svensmark] followed the changing fortunes of the best-recorded fossils. These are from invertebrate animals in the sea, such as shrimps and octopuses, or the extinct trilobites and ammonites. So from the start, its clear that we're talking about life in the oceans only. They tended to be richest in their variety when continents were drifting apart and sea levels were high and less varied when the land masses gathered 250 million years ago into the supercontinent called Pangaea and the sea-level was lower. It's been known for quite some time that biodiversity diminished as shallow seas dried up during the formation of Pangaea. But this geophysical effect was not the whole story. When it is removed from the record of biodiversity, what remains corresponds closely to the changing rate of nearby stellar explosions, with the variety of life being greatest when supernovae are plentiful. When the primary driver is removed, what remains is a residual. Any detectable signal from this point forward is thus no more than a secondary mechanism and may in fact be contaminated with unexplained residuals from the primary. A likely reason, according to Prof. Svensmark, is that the cold climate associated with high supernova rates brings a greater variety of habitats between polar and equatorial regions, while the associated stresses of life prevent the ecosystems becoming too set in their ways. Svensmark's self-described 'innovation' is that cosmic rays from close supernovae cool so extensively that they cause glaciation and the associated sea level drop. This speculative leap requires acceptance of his as yet unsubstantiated model (cosmic ray ionization -> clouds -> observable cooling). However, there's a hidden contradiction here: supernovae (and the resulting colder climates) did not 'help life to thrive' (as claimed); colder climates produced greater environmental stress, resulting in higher extinction rates. The highest supernova frequency shown by Svensmark is a broad band from 300-250 million years bp, during the Permian. At the end of this period (252 MYBP), the greatest mass extinction event known on Earth occurred. Does 'thriving' equate to mass extinction? Or was it the end of the 50 million years of stressful cosmic ray-induced cold climate that caused the extinction? Is it chicken or egg? It is interesting to note as well that Svensmark is the sole author on this paper. But they laughed at Galileo... BTW, one aspect of propaganda is that it is "repeated and dispersed over a wide variety of media in order to create the desired result in audience attitudes." Searching "svensmark cosmic rays life" returns a 'wide variety of media' indeed: WUWT, Nigel Calder, The Register, The Daily Mail, etc.
       Moderator Response: [Riccardo] link fixed
59419. John Hartz at 00:51 AM on 29 April 2012
       What We Knew in 82
       Suggested reading: “Evaluating a 1981 temperature projection”,guest commentary by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma, KNMI, Real Climate, Apr 2, 2012
59420. RW1 at 00:25 AM on 29 April 2012
       Climate sensitivity is low
       Continued from HERE Tom Curtis says: "RW1's bizarre claims assume that solar forcing results in no feedback response. That is, if the world's oceans are heated by 1 degree C by an increased GHG concentration, that will result in increased evaporation and an increase in absolute humidity (and hence a water vapour feedback), but that an increased temperature of the same proportion brought about by a brighter sun will not increase evaporation at all, nor melt any snow, or in any other way have feedbacks. RW1 can only attribute this view to climate scientists because, as always, he operates in complete disregard of what climate scientists actually say." What I'm saying is the ratio of surface radiative power to post albedo incident solar power, from which the so-called 'zero-feedback' response is ultimately derived, is already giving a measure of the lion's share of all the feedbacks operating in the system, including especially water vapor and clouds, as the two are by far the most dynamic components of the whole atmosphere. "Still more bizarre is RW1's claim that CO2 should result in less warming because of the energy needed to modify the internal energy structure of the atmosphere. What is bizarre here is that inside the troposphere, there is no significant difference in the change in temperature structure with time under GHG and solar warming. But solar warming heats the stratosphere, while increased GHG cools it - so as usual, RW1 gets the science completely backwards." GHG induced warming results in the warming of the atmosphere, does it not? Warming air expands and in doing so does work against its surroundings, which requires some of the internal energy to be expended, leaving less available to heat the atmosphere (and ultimately the surface).
59421. Eric (skeptic) at 22:55 PM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       chriskoz, some figures are given here http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/NRDC-ghg-emissions-report-from-unconventional.pdf although I can't vouch for their accuracy.
59422. L. Hamilton at 22:06 PM on 28 April 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Vinnikov on Arctic Sea Ice
       Thanks to moderator Sph for embedding my cycle plot in the post above. That looks much better! I've drawn other such plots for Arctic area and extent, and also for Antarctic extent going back to 1972. They often give an interestingly different slant on the data, placing seasonality and trends in one image -- which straight time plots don't do very well.
59423. Michael Whittemore at 21:43 PM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       Its worrying that big business is manipulating the public to not see the risks of climate change and in turn causing educated people to consider if democracy will be able to combat CO2 reductions. As the saying goes, the pen is mightier than the sword.
59424. chriskoz at 21:20 PM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       In the "clean world" we all-non-denialist aspire to, the true "bad footprint" of any type of fosil energy source should simply be measured by CO2 emmissions per the unit of usable enrgy: i.e. the energy the consumer is buying. In that simple measure, tar sands are I believe one of the worst type of source, even worse than brown coal, becaue of high amount of energy required for its refining. After brown coal comes black coal, then oil, then natural gas. I don't have the numbers (CO2/W) at hand but maybe someone has and post them here so as to put the "dirtyness" or CO2 footprint of sand tars in better perspective. The discussion about the impact of tar sand mining in AB on AGW should be based on that bottom line numbers, IMO.
59425. Riccardo at 16:53 PM on 28 April 2012
       Two Centuries of Climate Science: part one - Fourier to Arrhenius, 1820-1930
       To whom it may concern, here's Herschel's paper. Let me quote from his conclusions: "To conclude, if we call light, those rays which illuminate objects, and radiant heat, those which heat bodies, it may be inquired, whether light be essentially different from radiant heat? In answer to which I would suggest, that we are not allowed, by the rules of philosophizing, to admit two different causes to explain certain effects, if they may be accounted for by one." Given that at his times they didn't know what light and heat are, it's a remarkable intuition.
59426. peter7723 at 16:48 PM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       I watched the whole session. I learned nothing new either way. For the record, I do not need to be convinced that AGW is what is going on in the climate. But I believe that the shift in thinking will not come from debate. It will come from cheaper renewable energy sources, from weather events which can no longer be covered by insurance, from other countries refusing to buy Australia's coal and coal-based products (e.g. Aluminium, steel), and by non-coal based imports becoming cheaper. It also depends on generational change, when Anna Rose is in parliament and Nick Minchin and friends are in the grave. The lobbyists are fighting a battle they know they will eventually lose, one way of another - they know their science. Apart from that, new technologies take about 50 years to reach maturity, which is why we will never see "clean coal technology" except as pilot plants and political mistakes. It will be bypassed by cheaper technologies. [Aside: Why 50 years for new technology? It takes that long to do the research, the development, deploy, create infrastructure, drive out excess costs, etc. Examples are oil taking over from coal in transport, gas from oil, solid-state electronics from 1935 (Bell Labs research commenced) to 1981 (IBM PC), etc] The 50 year delay cuts both ways of course. We are perhaps 30 years into photo-electric development - we are seeing deployment and the required infrastructure is small - and it seems that in the next few years, the efficiency will double by exploiting thermo-electric effects. Nick Minchin is right when he says that it depends on economics and that when it is cheaper to use renewable energy, there will be no argument. Nick's problem is that he cannot imagine a world in which the economics drive out the old way of doing things. So, he cannot see a path to that world. So, what does this all mean? Focus on removing subsidies for CO2 producing activities. Tax the economic externalities such as CO2, so that the true cost to society is paid. However, this needs to be done in such a way that the economic system is not so hobbled that new things cannot happen. The current generation need to know that doing nothing may lead to a crippled economy, not just global warming :-).
59427. renewable guy at 16:03 PM on 28 April 2012
       It's cosmic rays
       

       My first censorship and I give credit to the great work you have been doing at Skeptical Science. I thought the view that SKS are propagandists might interest the group. Attempting to show GSR's would actually have been a cooling effect I believe is what did not go well with him. •http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2012/04/24/did-exploding-stars-help-life-on-earth-to-thrive/ Jonathan_Duhamel Note to renewableguy: I have deleted your comment on GCR because it is irrelevant and misleading, and shows that neither you nor the propagandists at skeptical science have read the paper. Had you read the paper you would see the explanation. renewableguy Jon I doubt very much there is a connection between life thriving on earth and galactic cosmic rays. Misleading is actually wrong and it shouldn't be your opinion alone to determine that. I presented an article based on several data sources explaining their point on GCR's. Proganda would be based on countering the truth with possibly false information. You are showing yourself to be using strong arm tactics unnecessarily. If you are interested in a fair presentation of both sides then put my article back up. If you only want to present one side, then by all means keep my post off. Skeptical science bases their postings on the current science.And yet you base your articles on the latest denial of AGW in the right wing circulation of entirely wrong and false media hype. http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryhe... The scientist refuted this false information very quickly. Your conclusion of medieval warming period was refuted by the very scientist that wrote it. This a true account of what has happened. Unless you would like to use your editorial power to rewrite that history.

59428. John Mason at 14:51 PM on 28 April 2012
       Two Centuries of Climate Science: part one - Fourier to Arrhenius, 1820-1930
       Indeed, Doug. It also serves as a very effective answer to people who are apt to post comments that infer that climate science only started out about 20 years ago or that there would be no climate science if Mike Mann (no disrespect intended) didn't exist!
59429. skywatcher at 12:09 PM on 28 April 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Vinnikov on Arctic Sea Ice
       Chris, you're welcome! Your googling skills are also much superior to mine, will bookmark the paper. L Hamilton - very interesting graph indeed, and interesting to visualise how similar the trends are in that context.
59430. Delmar at 11:50 AM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       So for these people, the argument "why don't you believe the scientists?", falls of deaf ears. Its not a meaningful question. It's not in their makeup. These people need to see the evidence first hand.
59431. L. Hamilton at 11:09 AM on 28 April 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Vinnikov on Arctic Sea Ice
       @Skywatcher, Chris G: Regarding the ice-edge latitude data of Eisenman (2010) -- a while back I drew this cycle plot showing its distinct upward trend across every month and season: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/Cycle_Arctic_latitude_1.png
       Moderator Response: [Sph] Image embedded and hotlinked.
59432. Delmar at 10:07 AM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       Doug Yes there was some interesting information that would not be available through other forums, and in particular the person who for 10 years had researched and analysed the public psych snd views on climate change. The interesting point I found was that denialists tend to distrust information from experts, no matter what the topic, while warmists do trust experts. This is the psychological makeup of people that will not be changed from arguing or shouting. It's the makeup of people who when they don't like a doctors diagnosis, they get a second opinion from an unrelated doctor on the other side it town.
59433. Doug Hutcheson at 09:44 AM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       The object of the show was not to investigate the evidence, but to expose the reasons why people adhere to their points of view and to show how difficult it is to get people to change their minds. Anna showed Nick the science, because she agrees with it; Nick showed Anna the spin, because that is what he agrees with. Nick is not interested in the science and Anna is not interested in the spin. This clearly shows the cognitive divide between deniers and accepters and, to that extent, it met the objectives of the producers. The subsequent QandA session was just another example of how to muddy the waters of scientific research by making it appear that the topic can fairly be debated by non-scientists. The one scientist on the panel was not trying to debate the science, but was trying to move the discussion to the theme of responses to climate change and that is a topic which can fairly be debated by the body politic. Billionaire Clive Palmer was there to represent the fossil fuels industry, so his reliance on discredited memes was unsurprising. Altogether, the two programmes did not advance the science one iota and almost certainly did not change anybody's mind about AGW, but that was not what they were trying to achieve: they were all about exposing entrenched positions and they succeeded in doing so.
59434. Delmar at 09:31 AM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       The ABC is government owned and considered left wing. At times left politicians have been recruited from the ABC. The media doesn't get any better than the ABC, the other stations are commercial and without doubt worse. This is a good as it gets under democracy. It will be 2 decades when we are surrounded by an irreversible and unstoppable climatic disaster before democracy is capable of action. The australian government can take immediate action today - it can prohibit coal exports increasing, instead the government has been expanding coal export wharves. Yet there was not one protestor when the ports were expanding. The quantity of coal exported from Australia is mind boggling. Democracy is the problem.
59435. LukeW at 09:30 AM on 28 April 2012
       ABC documentary demonstrates the how and why of climate denial
       Anna's knowledge of the topic was pretty mediocre and she fluffed it every time it got serious. Megan Clarke was using well rehearsed lines after her media training. CSIRO avoiding the stasis in warming by going to a decadal mean meme. But it all probably rated well as it was only entertainment. Jo Nova and David Evans should have been let go much longer and some back room lads and lassies from CSIRO and BoM let loose to talk REAL science. Could have done some serious analysis of alternative energy including nuclear with Prof Barry Brooks. But instead another unconvincing bit of info-tainment paff with celebrities. Clive Palmer didn't give a rats - it was all just profile. All rubbish really.
59436. Doug Hutcheson at 09:21 AM on 28 April 2012
       Two Centuries of Climate Science: part one - Fourier to Arrhenius, 1820-1930
       The time-line graphic is a good answer to those who who have been misled into thinking that AGW theory is all about computerised climate models. The article in American Scientist that muoncounter links @ 6 is behind a paywall, unfortunately, but the abstract is tantalising. The degree of sophistication in scientific experiments two hundred years ago still has the capacity to surprise me. What the early investigators discovered, using primitive equipment by today's standard, is remarkable.
59437. muoncounter at 08:10 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       To get at the tar sands through open pit operations, you first take out the surface soils. In the Athabasca, "the overburden consists of water-laden muskeg (peat bog) over top of clay and barren sand." In considering carbon impact, SW12 leaves out this minor detail, which was more fully analyzed by Rooney et al 2011; Contrary to claims made in the media, peatland destroyed by open-pit mining will not be restored. Current plans dictate its replacement with upland forest and tailings storage lakes, amounting to the destruction of over 29,500 ha of peatland habitat. Landscape changes caused by currently approved mines will release between 11.4 and 47.3 million metric tons of stored carbon and will reduce carbon sequestration potential by 5,734–7,241 metric tons C/y.
59438. vrooomie at 07:15 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Ian@13: there is also the proposed natural gas pipeline, all the way from my home county of weld, in Colorado ("Got gas? We'll drill for it!!") all the way to the Gulf...from my house, I can see the excavations beginning. http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_20385630/natural-gas-pipeline-run-from-weld-county-texas What could go wrong with *that*? ={;-(
59439. vrooomie at 07:10 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Pierre@9: Well said! I've heard it a slightly different way... "Not *MY* fault!", screams every flake in an avalanche.....
59440. Ian Forrester at 07:00 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Andy, you mentioned at the start of your article the proposed pipelines, Keystone and Northern Gateway. Don't forget about the one that is managing to stay under the radar, the twinning of Kinder Morgan's Transmountain Pipeline which would increase its capacity by aprox 500,000 barrels per day of dil-bit. At present it carries about 350,000 bpd of a mixture of products, crude oil, refined and semi-refined products in what they call a "batch train". This pipeline goes straight into the greater Vancouver area. There have been a number of spills in this system recently. The importance of pipeline capacity is that it is very cheap (relatively speaking) to set up a surface mine or SAGD operation but it is very expensive to build an upgrader. Thus these pipelines will allow much more rapid expansion than if the bitumen was upgraded and refined in Alberta. Just in today's Herald it was pointed out that Alberta lost $18 billion dollars last year because of the price differential between heavy-oil/bitumen and conventional crude.
59441. Daniel Bailey at 06:33 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       To follow-on to Pierre-Emmanuel line of reasoning, greenwashing the Tar Sands is like this:
59442. Andy Skuce at 06:25 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Pierre-Emmanuel Neurohr@9 I agree, using that argument is foolish. I think that was what Mark Jaccard (see the last section of my article) was getting at with his mention of the "fallacy of composition". My favourite analogy is that of a schoolboy arguing that he shouldn't be stopped from peeing in the swimming pool because it makes hardly any difference compared to the whole school doing it. What I was trying to show was not that such an argument is silly--although it is--but that it is, in any case, wrong.
59443. Paul Magnus at 05:56 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/26/471985/tar-sands-production-in-america-is-closer-than-you-think/ Absolute madness... Keeps the president and delusion going.
59444. Pierre-Emmanuel Neurohr at 05:48 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       I found this article interesting, but I couldn't help thinking that, by its careful and in-depth analysis, it might turn a ludicrous denialist argument into a serious one, that would actually be worthy of a scientific debate. Basically, as I understand it, correct me if I'm wrong, we're being told in the newspapers you quoted that tar sands extraction in Canada is not a problem... when you compare it to worldwide extraction of carbon-containing materials! If you accept this approach, then no crime is problematic anymore. You just need to compare it to worldwide statistics, and a murder or a rape, for example, becomes a crime on only 0,0000...00001 % of the human population, a gas-guzzling car, compared to 1 billion other cars, is no problem either, etc. By the same token, no coal mine on its own, no oil field on its own, no country on its own, is a problem for the climate, while at the same time all together lead to the destruction of the said climate... I seems to me that even before your careful analysis, if indeed it was needed and not counter-productive, you should point out that the very idea of comparing tar sands in Canada to worldwide pollution of the climate is in and of itself clownish.
59445. BKsea at 05:33 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       I find the argument that we should stop tar sands exploitation to prevent emissions to be unconvincing. What we need is to reduce total emissions not where they are coming from. If we prevent exploitation of one resource, we will just increase exploitation of another resource. Yes, this may have some effect through higher prices, but that effect depends on the elasticity of demand. I believe demand is fairly insensitive to price of oil. Trying to prevent tar sand exploitation reminds me of the US efforts to fight drugs by going after coca farmers in South America. It may have had a small effect through higher prices, but it mainly made the drug traffickers richer without much influence on drug consumption. What is needed are policies that target total demand. Then, as stated toward the end of post #6, tar sands will not be developed because they are uneconomical.
59446. Andy Skuce at 05:32 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Great comment, Rust, thank you. Yes, it's the cumulative carbon targets that are the important ones to emphasize: they are scientifically robust, easy to grasp and hard to manipulate. One thing I didn't get into above is the political dimension, here in Canada . Deep Climate has a good couple of posts showing the incompatibility between Canada's emissions targets and the plans for scaling up bitumen production. On one hand, we have the government promising significant emissions cuts and on the other hand promising the Premier of China that bitumen production will ramp up to 6 million barrels per day and that there will be pipelines available for export to the Pacific. So, we have to wonder, would Stephen Harper rather deceive Canadians concerned about climate change or the government of China? Answers on a postcard please... Now it appears that the Alberta Government's plan to mitigate emissions though carbon capture and storage is falling apart. Not due to technical shortcomings but instead to the lack of a sufficiently stringent carbon price (the current price is $15/tonne on "excess" emissions). As you say: they are highly motivated to downplay both the need for constraints, and the impact of their particular resource on the dilemma in total. This will become ever more acute as the economy of the country becomes increasingly dependent on bitumen exports; the government's temptation to double down and deny the science as a means of avoiding regulation will become irresistible.
59447. rustneversleeps at 04:49 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Nice piece, as always Andy. Although all of the emission pathways, extraction choices, etc., are inherently incredibly complex, I find incredibly frustrating the morass of terminologies and metrics we use. In my naive opinion, we should be looking at all of these choices in the context of "carbon budget" or "cumulative emissions" approaches, such as that developed for TriliionthTonne.org, based on Allen et al. (2009), Meinshausen et al. (2009), and others. Ultimately, the signficance (or not) of bitumen extraction and combustion needs to be assessed in the context of the remaining carbon budget. In fact, I think that is the scientifically credible "denominator" that needs to be used for all of these sources. And I think that is largely where your piece (and Neil's commentary) start to lead. But since I am typing now anyway, if you take the trillionthonne.org base case - assuming a 50% likelihood of avoiding a 2°C temperature rise - then we have about a 443 GtC remaining budget. And that is from ALL of fossil fuels, land use change, deforestation and cement. If you assume that fossil fuel combustion alone gets an 80% share of that budget, then you are left with 354 GtC. According to the Carbon Tracker Initiative "proven" reserves of carbon for coal, oil and gas are - respectively - about 500 GtC, 170 GtC and 100 GtC. (On the last page of SW12, their estimates for "reserves" are 614, 158 and 107 GtC, respectively, but close enough for my point here.) The Carbon Tracker numbers exclude "probable" and "possible" reserves, and obviously the SW12 reserves are a small subset of "resources". My point is that we are going to address the global commitments of the Copenhagen accord in a scientifically credible way, then you have all of those reserves - and a lot of more potential - of carbon trying to squeeze into that remaining budget. All of a sudden, a bitumen expoitation over the century of 22.5 GtC is 6.3% of the remaining budget of 343 GtC for fossil fuels. Or, if one were to assumen that "oil" were to get a remaining share of the budget equal to it's current emissions share of about 33%, then bitumen would be claiming almost a 22.5/(33% * 354) = 19%. (A share that I don't think the rest of the world's oil producers would endorse; nor would they sit by idly in terms of pricing while the oil sands production ate up their remaining share of budget!) My point is that any sort of analysis that uses a "remaining carbon budget" as the denominator (instead of reserves, or resources, or current emissions share, etc.) starts to put the potential impact of bitumen production at much higher percentages. And I seriously think that this is the only scientifically credible "denominator" there is if we are serious about tackling climate change. Which is why, of course, as you note, the case "for the oil sands industry seems fairly narrow and mostly involves hoping that climate policy will fail." I am going to finish with a quote from the MIT study you reference: "with CO2 emissions (constraints) implemented worldwide, the Canadian bitumen production becomes essentially non-viable even with CCS technology, at least through our 2050 horizon. The main reason for the demise of the oil sands industry with global CO2 policy is that the demand for oil worldwide drops substantially. CCS takes care of emissions from the oil sands production, upgrading, and refining processes, at a cost, but there is so little demand for petroleum products which still emit CO2 when used that it can be met with conventional oil resources that entail less CO2 emissions in the production process." My highlights. If one were to engage in a bit of game theory, you can certainly see that in a climate change policy world of serious carbon constraints, owners of bitumen resources would be severely impacted. So they are highly motivated to downplay both the need for constraints, and the impact of their particular resource on the dilemma in total. So, I think we need to always keep bringing the issue back to some sort of carbon budget denominator (or similar) metric. Not just for bitumen, for all of our carbon choices. And although I think that was the underlying message of SW12, I appreciate your work here, Andy, it making it so much more explicit. Cheers.
59448. Neil_Swart at 04:28 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Yes, thanks Andy, that is fair, you certainly do mention it. I suppose I mean in general the size and implications of the North American carbon footprint from tarsands that we calculate has not been reported (particularly in the popular media). In essence, the conclusion is "if the populations of the USA and Canada were to extensively utilize the Alberta oil-sands proven reserve, it would almost certainly be incompatible with doing a globally equal share (85 tC) in keeping warming below 2°C. " -Neil
59449. Andy Skuce at 04:11 AM on 28 April 2012
       Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
       Thanks for dropping by and commenting, Neil. To be clear, I did refer, in my concluding paragraph, to your discussion of carbon footprints: Swart and Weaver take pains to demonstrate, both in the paper and in more detail on Swart's website, the outsized contribution that bitumen exploitation will make to North America's carbon footprint I agree that many commentators only reported what they wanted to hear and misrepresented your overall message.
59450. Chris G at 03:50 AM on 28 April 2012
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Vinnikov on Arctic Sea Ice
       Skywatcher, Thanks! Knowing that something like that already existed was a critical step. From there, it did not take very long, at all. Tamino has On Ice with a Twist which leads directly to Geographic muting of changes in the Arctic sea ice cover

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