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Comments 65701 to 65750:

  1. actually thoughtful at 04:58 AM on 28 January 2012
    NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    I wrote this one before, it appears to have gone missing. Rob Painting - your reply to me relies on part 2, which as of this writing, is not available. The concerns raised by some posters here indicate that part 1 may not be able to stand on its own. While you are welcome to your opinion - I find this statement incredibly elitist: "The woman and man in the street isn't going to be able to make sense of the observations, especially with distortions by fake-skeptics. That's why we exist - to communicate this information in a, hopefully, comprehensible manner. To expect a public audience to be able to process this information without guidance is foolish." At the end of your reply to me you mention there is no nuance. If you don't understand why people are confused by short term weather patterns, that could be a root cause of why this post is getting so many responses of the "there be dragons" type.
  2. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    pirate#61: "our Holt Environmental Science textbook" That is because Texas is a major buyer of textbooks in the US - and publishers write to conform to Texas' educational standards. Texas' conservative-dominated SBOE has this policy since 2009: in all fields of science, analyze, evaluate, and critique scientific explanations by using empirical evidence, logical reasoning, and experimental and observational testing, including examining all sides of scientific evidence of those scientific explanations, so as to encourage critical thinking by the student. On the surface, this is benign; in reality it can be insidious because it creates the false impression of equivalence between sides. If 'all sides' are to be evaluated, all sides get to present their 'evidence'. Hence demand for Michaels and his ilk to creatively edit. All sides: objects fall because they 'want to'. Let the kids decide. Science by popular consent. Sounds like fun.
  3. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    The increased open water and warmer air have sure impacted the glaciers on Arctic islands such as Svalbard and Novaya Zemyla
  4. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    @ apiratelooksat50
    "They point out that widespread fluctuations in temperature have occurred throughout geologic time."
    You omit the understood caveats: that said fluctuations occurred due to known forcings and feedbacks, none of which explain the warming of the past 50 years without the consideration of the radiative physics of CO2. And that the rate of change of those past fluctuations occurred at geologic changes, which contrasts to the extreme rate of change of temps and CO2 over the past 50 years, which is without parallel in the paleo record. Thus, you continue to prosecute your agenda of manufactured doubt and delay. You dissemble.
  5. apiratelooksat50 at 04:06 AM on 28 January 2012
    The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    In South Carolina for Environmental Science, we don't have any state direction on teaching climate change other than our curriculum and pacing guides. We assess knowledge retention with District based 9-weeks tests and are moving toward a statwide end of course test. I would imagine that if this was put in place it would be treated by the individual teachers about like we treat evolution - which as you know is a topic that is polarizing. Our state guidance is that we present evolution as a well-supported theory. The student does not have to believe in evolution, but is responsible for understanding the mechanisms and other facts. We do not offer any religious based theories due to separation of church and state. I push the limits on teaching evolution, while others shy away from it and do the bare minimum. And, FWIW, from our Holt Environmental Science textbook is the following excerpt from an Active Reading worksheet in the Climate Change section: "Many scientists think that the increasing greenhouse gases in our atmosphere result in increasing the average temperature on Earth. The result, they believe, will be a warmer Earth. This predicted increase in global temperature is known as global warming. Earth’s average global temperature increased during the 20th century. Many scientists project that the warming trend that began in the 20th century will continue throughout the 21st century. However, not all scientists agree that the observed global warming is due to greenhouse gases. Some scientists believe that the warming is part of natural climatic variability. They point out that widespread fluctuations in temperature have occurred throughout geologic time."
  6. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Tealy wrote: "I agree with you wholeheartedly." So... you agree that Tuvalu sea level is changing primarily due to ice melt? Funny how that isn't clear from your postings. Your argument seems to boil down to the fact that we don't have an exact breakdown of long term Tuvalu sea level rise by category (e.g. total ocean volume change vs gravitational change vs land subsistence vs prevailing winds change). As such, I don't really see the point. Becker 2011 estimates land subsistence at about 10%, and the other three are all being driven, in the same direction, by global warming. Is this just another variation on, 'if we do not know everything then magical unknown factors could come along and reverse all observed and modeled trends'? If so, then yes... that could happen. It is just so unlikely as to be not worth worrying about until some shred of evidence supporting it is found.
  7. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    I am a layman - albeit one that has been following James Lovelock's writings since 1980. I hope this isn't off topic but I would appreciate being pointed at an explanation of exactly how latent heat of melting (fusion?) fits into the whole warming pattern and which models it appears in and which it doesn't. I assume that as ice melts for good and all that energy isn't 'used up' it isn't just albedo that decreases but there is a (major?) increase in the amount of heat being added to the system. Nobody seems to talk about this though. Perhaps I am at such a low level of knowledge that everyone includes it as a constant or something but I'd appreciate the pointer.
  8. Skepticism About Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data
    (-snipI sit in a London Flat overlooking the River Thames, with a patch of lawn, and the paved Thames Walk between my window and the river. The Thames here is tidal, rising some 40 feet twice a day, and halving its surface area. The flats are built on the site of an old wharf (dock) with its workings and its warehouses long gone. Let us go back to the beginning of the 20th century and attempt to measure its surface temperature trend from 1900 to 1997, almost 100 years. To define the temperature we could install a few max/min thermometers close to the foreshore, a few meters above the high water mark, and take the temperature of the water from Putney bridge with a bucket a few times a day (across the oceans they used buckets from ships). We would rapidly accumulate a large amount of time series data, moderator, which we could average daily, weekly, monthly, and annually.. Over time we would have to move the thermometers, the wharf and all the surrounding area would be extensively developed (and re-developed), traffic, trains, and planes would be introduced, and the population would rise at least ten-fold. We might also be uncomfortably aware that we have not even attempted to measure the temperature at the actual surface; we are measuring atmospheric temperature with all its wind-based variability. But we can face all that squarely and pass on. Over the period, almost a century, we will be looking for the impact of a CO2 increase from about 290ppm to 360 ppm, or 24%. What would our results have looked like? How can we possibly tell? As a matter of fact we can get a good idea, because the Central England Temperature record is measured like this, averaged over three sites, without the complication of water.Their trend temperature over the period was 0.54 degrees C per century. Did the surface temperature, with all its systematic (not random, Tom) variations, really increase by half a degree? Who knows. It is, at best, suspect. We do know that we climbed out of a Little Ice Age over at least half of this period. In the nineteenth century the Thames here frequently froze in the Winter, as did the sea round our coasts. If the surface temperature really did increase, what caused it? Was it the CO2 increase (24%)? If we had known this result in 1900, would we have stopped all the development, left our coal in the ground and not looked for oil? Will China and India abandon their development today on this kind of evidence? Will the Americans give up their air conditioning?-)
    Response:

    [DB] The subject of this thread is Skepticism About Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data, a discussion of satellite global temperature variations & the misrepresentation of the same by fake-skeptics.

    Off-topic musings on regional and local temperature variations & misc things snipped.

  9. Public talk: Global Warming - The Full Picture
    Very interesting! Informative answers to the (archetypal) "skeptics" of the audience as well.
  10. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Cbdunkerson @55 I agree with you wholeheartedly. Yes zonal tilting (or regional variations if you prefer) will be insignificant compared to other causes of sea level rise. It's poorly understood, even acknowledged on this forum as contradictory, and therefore should not be included in projections of sea level rise. A recent (50 year) increase in zonal tilting does not in itself mean zonal tilting will continue to rise. Daniel Bailey @56 Thank you but they are all references to sea level rise being the average sea level rise. Regional differences in sea level rise, by that i mean why say Tuvalu has a different sea level rise than say Fiji, Hawaii, or Panama, is not addressed by those references, only the average rise is addressed.
    Response:

    [DB] "Thank you but they are all references to sea level rise being the average sea level rise."

    In order to properly answer your question you need more than a simple answer; SLR is a complex process, but is well studied from the paleo record & well-reproduced in models and subsequently verified with regional analyses.

    The first portion establishes that there is extensive literature much more current that the IPCC AR4 you reference.  You were given a small portion of that, a portion documenting considerably higher SLR rates in the pipeline as well as the relationship between temperature (a defining metric for sea levels) and SLR.  The last two links specifically reference regional variations in SLR due to ice sheet melt. So you were indeed given answers.

    Here's more:

    Regional impacts due to SLR:

    Thermal expansion of sea water a limited factor in SLR:

  11. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Rob Painting @57 Don't tell me, take your vitriol to the IPCC and tell them they got it all wrong and that it is "nonsense". If you would read my post you will see I gave a citation as you asked, it quoted the IPCC, I gave a web address, and an explanation. If you would like more detail here is the IPCC website showing 6 climate models of sea level rise from 2000 to 2100, and all 6 models show thermal expansion is the greater component of sea level rise accounting for about 2/3 of the total rise. For example the B1 model shows the main components over the 21st century for the 95% confidence interval as:- Thermal expansion of 0.24m Land ice sum of 0.18m Resulting Sea level rise of 0.38m Ie thermal expansion is greater than ice melt!!!! http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-6-5.html
    Response:

    [DB] "Ie thermal expansion is greater than ice melt!!!!"

    Again, you rely upon outdated information.  More current exist, as referenced in the response to your comment subsequent to this.  Future SLR in the pipeline will greatly exceed thermal expansion of the oceans.

    A presumption that your source citations from 5 years ago supercede the advice and citations given to you in 2012 is a strategy for failure.  FYI.

  12. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    The interesting thing is that the Arctic is heating up rapidly, while spilling colder air onto the continents, like we saw during the winters of 09/10 and 10/11. The AO has now gone negative again, and we are seeing the same thing again. Due to the poor coverage of the Arctic, this puts a cool bias into the global average data that mostly ignore the Arctic, especially the CRU data. I would think some of Trenberths' "missing heat" is right there, in the Arctic, melting the sea ice, among other things. At Longyearbyen, Svalbard (close to 80 degs latitude), it is raining as we speak. On January 27th. Average temp for the last 30 days is 17F above the normal: http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html Temps have been way above normal for years, pretty much without getting any media coverage whatsoever. In mainland Norway, after a very warm autumn and early winter, a few days of normal January temps was obviously sensational enough to warrant pretty much the entire frontpage of the national newspapers: http://www.yr.no/artikkel/1.7967259 Pretty much no coverage of 4 months with way above normal temps, but slightly below freezing temps at the latitude of Labrador in January is first page news. The press here is mostly run by hardcore disinformers, so not too surprising, I guess.
  13. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #3
    "Does one have to be a climate science wonk in order to comprehend the majority of articles posted on SkS?" No. If you're a non-science person, SkS is probably the best way to become such a 'wonk'. And the 3 tier system is fantastic.
  14. New research from last week 2/2012
    Day et al. have published a correction to their paper "The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard". Their abstract says that: "This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day." The number 3.5 m is an error, it should be 0.35 m.
  15. Sceptical Wombat at 18:03 PM on 27 January 2012
    NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    A small typo. The word "monotonous" just after Fig 1 should presumably be "monotonic."
    Moderator Response: [Rob P] Fixed thanks. Mind you it would be tedious and boring!
  16. Doug Hutcheson at 17:56 PM on 27 January 2012
    2012 SkS Weekly Digest #3
    From your perspective, how well does SkS communicate what peer reviewed science has to say about global warming?
    SkS is my major resource for AGW info. The recent addition of the weekly summary of papers gives me the impression that I am getting access to a broad cross-section of the available literature, so from my perspective you are doing an excellent job.
    Does one have to be a climate science wonk in order to comprehend the majority of articles posted on SkS?
    Majority? No. Some are beyond my non-scientific education at times, but the comments generally clarify points that have gone over my head.
    Does the three-tiered rebuttal system serve a useful purpose?
    Definitely valuable to me. In fact, reading them in order from simplest to most technical often helps me to understand the technical ones better.
    How could SkS better communicate information to the average person who has only a rudimentary understanding of climate science?
    I came here as a person in that category and have found almost everything accessible and comprehensible, but that may partly be due to my being interested enough in the topic to google for further explanations of things I don't understand first time. Often, I find the original papers under discussion a bit incomprehensible, for example because I lack the math to follow the equations, but the SkS articles themselves are generally lucid and paced at my speed (unlike one of your commenters to a thread late last year, who linked to his own blog and I challenge anyone to figure out what he is saying: perhaps I lack the comprehension skills needed [grin]).
  17. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    Victull, you say: As a lukewarmer, I must admit that there seems to be some confusion of surface temperature warming with heat energy absorption in the oceans in this post. And you also say: I would like understand the mechanism of how this heat gets back up into the atmosphere. If you don't understand this mechanism, which is not an unimportant one by any means, why would you describe yourself as a "lukewarmer"? Shouldn't you hold off on applying that sort of label to yourself until you've understood the mechanisms under discussion? I don't mean this an attack. I'm honestly curious. What is the justification for presuming to know the most likely outcome of a process that you concede you don't adequately understand?
  18. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    John Hartz#57: I can't find any first-hand source for the story about new Texas education standards. Everyone has quoted the LA Times article, Texas and Louisiana have introduced education standards that require educators to teach climate change denial as a valid scientific position. But there are no citations in this article and a search turns up nothing other than websites and blogs repeating the same story without further details. One source may be from late November, here: At last week’s meeting in Austin, state board members began mapping out the schedule for adopting textbooks and curriculum standards over the next decade. Although they won’t make any final decisions until early next year, board members considered a schedule that would have them adopting new science textbooks in 2013 There's an ongoing struggle for textbook language, with nothing new about climate change education beyond the 2009 textbook standards. There will be an election for the State Board of Education this year; a right-wing takeover could start this ball rolling again, but it appears to be on hold for now. Oklahoma is another story: The bill would, if enacted, require the state board of education to assist teachers and administrators in promoting "critical thinking, logical analysis, open and objective discussion of scientific theories including, but not limited to, evolution, the origin of life, global warming, and human cloning" Louisiana has such legislation on its books since 2008. The buzz words are once again 'teach both sides, let the kids decide,' which is straight out of the ID playbook.
  19. National (US) Strategy Proposed to Respond to Climate Change’s Impacts on Fish, Wildlife, Plants
    Recommended reading: “Obama's Global Warming Plan: Band-Aids for Wildlife” by Edward Flattau, the Huffington Post, Jan 26, 2012 To access this article, click here.
  20. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Tealy - at comment @46 you claimed that thermal expansion contributed more to current sea level rise. When I asked for a citation at comment @47, you replied with an armflapping response about projections for the 21st century, you did not provide a citation to support your assertion. Your assertion is wrong. The addition of water mass (melt-water from ice sheets and glaciers) to the rate of current sea level rise is over twice that of that of thermal expansion from global warming. See Leuliette & Willis (2011) - Balancing the Sea Level Budget. It is clear from your persistently wrong assertions and unwillingness to learn that you are here simply to create the false impression of doubt, and also to waste people's time. I'm sure you can find other blogs where your commitment to non-learning and erroneous beliefs is appreciated. I would urge other moderators to not tolerate further nonsense -snip-.
    Moderator Response: [Albatross] I share your frustration but please tone it down. Thanks.
  21. Wcalvin@uw.edu at 11:17 AM on 27 January 2012
    NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    Continuing.... Most of the excess CO2 and heat is still in the surface layer. The North Atlantic is the only place with a lot of excess CO2 (and presumably heat) below the thermocline (Sabine et al 2002) and thus kept away from the atmosphere for a thousand years. That is the only part that can be considered to be in long-term storage. So yes, most of the excess CO2 and heat is now in the ocean. But it is only in the wind-stirred surface layer and not really in long-term storage.
  22. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    DB, Yep, lovely. It appears the 'hiatus decade' started at +0.6C and ended above +1.5C. Anyone still saying warming has 'slowed down', 'paused' or whatever needs to explain this graph.
  23. Wcalvin@uw.edu at 11:03 AM on 27 January 2012
    NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    Re times for deep ocean heat to make a difference see Winton, Takahashi, and Held, 2009:  Importance of ocean heat uptake efficacy to transient climate change. J.Clim, 2009 Deep ocean is 98% of the water so there is a 50-fold dilution of whatever excess CO2 and heat is sunk into it by the overturning circulation. Takes about 1000 years to make it back up.
  24. Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 2
    Ah, it was before that...
  25. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    @Sphaerica #58: My suggestion that you and Pirate take your discussion off-line had to do with the deteriorating tone of your exchanges. I purposely did not post my suggestion as a Moderator's comment.
  26. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    Then there was this lovely corroborative graphic derived from the BEST datasets from longtime Neven-contributor Wipneus:
  27. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    54, Pirate, The problem with your interpretation of that last bullet point is that you appear to be reading the phrase "to do so we need to understand why climate change is happening" as an implicit admission that "we don't know," when what they are actually saying is "we do know, and we need you as a teacher to convey that knowledge to those that do not know." As far as what the IPCC says about human activities causing climate change, first that is now 5 years old. What they said then you can see here, such as:
    Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.
    But times have changed. Consider these recent posts (Huber and Knutti 2011 and Foster and Rhamstorf) here on Skeptical Science, covering the latest research. The upshot is that when you separate natural and anthropogenic causes, the warming is obvious, and natural factors are most likely to have contributed a net cooling effect. This means that not only is all of the warming you see today anthropogenic in origin, but it would also be even worse if not for the cooling factors. 55, John Hartz, No. This is a post about teaching the science, and Pirate is a science teacher. If this is not an appropriate topic of debate on this site, then what is?
  28. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    @ Tealy
    "ice melt and thermal expansions of oceans contribute to regional differences in sea level, but have not been able to explain why in scientific terms or provide a specific source that says it does."
    Try these papers and articles from around SkS and the web:
    1. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia
    2. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise
    3. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
    4. Sea Level Rise
    5. Global sea level linked to global temperature
    6. Sea levels will continue to rise for 500 years
    7. Sea Level Hockey Stick
    8. The Last Interglacial - An Analogue for the Future?
    9. 2000 Years of Sea Level (+updates)
    10. Melting Threat From West Antarctic Ice Sheet May Be Less Than Expected; But U.S. Coastal Cities At Risk
    11. Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
  29. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    It's taken a bit of time to really filter through - the observations of the methane degassing seems to have triggered another round of attention. It's a pity that the IJIS tracking system went down last October - between its 15% baseline and DMI's 30% baseline, there was an easy way to do daily tracking of extent. Do not expect any political action. Brace yourself for the worst-case forecast being the mid-line of possible outcomes. You might as well tell the Conquistadors to stop looking for gold.
  30. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Tealy, you misread. The trade winds are responsible for the entirety of the phenomena you are calling 'zonal tilting'. What is tiny is the long term change in sea level due to changes in the trade winds. Basically, you are ignoring the two largest factors causing sea level rise (i.e. thermal expansion in the short term and ice melt in the long run) to concentrate obsessively on a factor which disappears in the rounding. Think about it for a moment. Do you really think that the slight increase in sea surface height due to wind blown water, caused by the slight increase in trade wind strength (caused by global warming), is going to be more significant than adding more water and increasing the volume of the water already present? It's like arguing that the water level in a pot isn't rising because the chunk of ice inside is melting and the water is getting hotter... it is rising because there is a slightly stronger breeze blowing over the surface.
  31. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    Here’s another piece of the puzzle… On January 16, the Los Angeles Times revealed that anti-science bills have been popping up over the past several years in statehouses across the U.S., mandating the teaching of climate change denial or "skepticism" as a credible "theoretical alternative" to human caused climate change came. The L.A. Times' Neela Banerjee explained, "Texas and Louisiana have introduced education standards that require educators to teach climate change denial as a valid scientific position. South Dakota and Utah passed resolutions denying climate change. Tennessee and Oklahoma also have introduced legislation to give climate change skeptics a place in the classroom." What the excellent Times coverage missed is that key language in these anti-science bills all emanated from a single source: the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC. Source: “ALEC Model Bill Behind Push to Require Climate Denial Instruction in Schools” by Steve Horn, DeSmog Blog, Jan 27, 2012 To access this detailed expose, click here.
  32. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    Brian, I also saw it on Neven's blog too last week, and although IANACS, was immediately struck by its significance, as well as the its lack of coverage in the media. Hopefully it'll get mainstream airtime soon.
  33. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Tealy, "Zonal Tilting" appears to be a term that you have made up so it is not surprising that you get no hits. The IPCC projection is outdated and incomplete. Current worldwide sea level rise is about 3.2 mm/yr. The Tuvalu excess is only 2 mm/yr or 4 cm over the past 20 years. That rate could go on for decades. Worldwide average global sea level rise is currently conservatively estimated at 1-2 meters by the year 2100. That is about 15mm/yr over the entire globe (but the rise will not be linear). Obviously, that includes Tuvalu. You suggest that the rise at Tuvalu will be substantially less than that. You must provide evidence for your extraordinary claim. Since you appear to be unaware that 1-2 meters by 2100 is the current projection, you need to read the background so that you can contribute to the discussion.
  34. Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 2
    Utahn @26, "Oddly, he often uses your submitted email to reply to any complaint, rather than in the comments.." He is not permitted to do that. Your email on that site is meant to be confidential. If if he has emailed you or someone else in the last week or so), please let me know.
  35. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    CB @ 52 Yes people have told me that ice let and thermal expansions of oceans contribute to regional differences in sea level, but have nnot been able to explain why in scientific terms or provide a specific source that says it does. I have looked to my wits end and cannot find an explanation or source either, hence why I am asking. Zonal tilting is the name for the regional difference that occurs across the pacific, it's the macro regional difference. If trade winds are a tiny cause of the zonal variations, what are the large causes?
  36. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    I first saw this on Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog and it was informative to read ClimateProgress’s further coverage. The accumulated evidence from what’s happening to the planet’s ice and the ever-worsening news coming out of the Arctic show things have reached the point of being excruciatingly obvious but the politicians just continue to stare the other way. The “political” penny should have dropped so heavily about the vanishing ice and global temperatures that it registered above eight on the Richter seismic scale and caused a tsunami of appropriate action. Instead, the denialists are reaching new heights of intentional misinformation, like this “analysis” of what’s happening in the Arctic I came across a couple of weeks ago. “-------The Arctic ice extent is almost back to average, the Arctic has been doing nothing unusual, but they continue to pretend that the Arctic ice is dwindling. I wish they would try addressing the real world rather than their politically-biased fantasies”. This beggars belief because not one single word is true, and manifestly so, starting with the absurd claim about the ice extent. As for “the real world and politically-biased fantasies”, I’ll leave you to work out who’s really off with the fairies – that shouldn’t take very long. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
  37. Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 2
    Martin, if you'd like to bring up something to him, or link to these articles, you can comment at his Forbes "Climate of Fear" website. Ironically named, because the only fear evident is his fear of any government regulation...Oddly, he often uses your submitted email to reply to any complaint, rather than in the comments...
  38. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    Eric (skeptic)- "How much of the heat that is stored in the deep ocean not coming back in decade timescales?" Probably none. See SkS post on Meehl (2011) - Ocean Heat Poised To Come Back And Haunt Us? It's heat in the surface layers of the ocean that are lost to the atmosphere. That's why the oceans lose heat during El Nino - nothing to do with the deep ocean. Victull @ 15 - The confusion is yours, no point in trying to blame the blog post . In one sentence you point out that heat lost during ENSO must be balance by cooling elsewhere, and the very next you write about the warming rate highlighted in Loeb (2012). You gave yourself a very strong clue toward processing this information, but then failed to connect the two. Sunlight entering the surface layers warms the ocean. La Nina is when there is a large gain in ocean heat, and El Nino is when the heat is lost to the atmosphere. Although the cloud-related changes due to ENSO do affect sunlight reaching the ocean surface, the tilting of the thermocline is essentially a re-distribution of this heat already in the ocean. It's that process which affects surface temperatures so greatly. This information is spelled out in the post.
  39. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    I am sorry to stay off topic, but I think it might be helpful to have a page of climate linked modern extinction events that is regularly updated.
  40. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    apiratelooksat50 & Sphaerica: It would benefit everyone if the two of you would take your Hatfieild-McCoy feud off-line. You guys have previously communicated via email. Please do so again.
  41. Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 2
    Thanks Martin. World Climate Report doesn't ever allow comments. It's intended more of a disinformation propagation site than a discussion blog.
  42. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Tealy, as people have told you several times now, ice melt and thermal expansion do contribute to regional differences in sea level. Your continued insistence that 'zonal tilting' is the only relevant issue for regional (vs average) sea level is simply false. Indeed, changes in the zonal variations caused by the trade winds are comparatively tiny.
  43. apiratelooksat50 at 02:16 AM on 27 January 2012
    The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    Sphaerica at 53 I refuse to engage in a pointless back and forth with you over your misunderstanding and manipulation of anything I say. FYI - even the IPCC doesn't make the statement in your first bullet. But, I will humor you on your last question. From Climate Change 101's last bullet (and last bullet only!), I can pretty much agree with everything in the following paragraph. Can you? "It is possible to prepare for climate change and to avert the worst effects of it, but to do so we need to understand why climate change is happening and make informed choices as individuals and communities based on the scientific evidence. Information alone is not enough to choose appropriate policies and strategies to limit some climate changes and prepare society for changes that are already well under way, but without understanding the basic causes and effects of climate change, we will be unable to make informed decisions that will affect generations to come."
  44. Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
    Thanks, Albatross.
  45. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    victull - "I would like understand the mechanism of how this heat gets back up into the atmosphere." Even a tiny change in sea surface temperature affects heat flow in/out of the atmosphere. What the ENSO does is allow (in La Nina) more energy from the TOA imbalance to go into the oceans by warming cool surfaces, or alternatively slightly reduce the energy flow into the oceans due to warmer surface waters (lower gradient, hence lower flow into the oceans) meaning that imbalance goes into the atmosphere instead. The oceans represent ~93.4% of the heat storage, the atmosphere ~2.3% - a very small change for ocean heat flow is by comparison a very large change for atmospheric heat flow. [Source] See also the Deep Ocean Warms When Global Surface Temperatures Stall thread.
  46. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    victull, ENSO is a result of a coupling of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. During the La Nina years, the easterly trade winds over equatorial Pacific is abnormally strong. The result is that the warm surface water piles up along the western boundary. As ENSO transitions from a La Nina to an El Nino state, the trade wind weakens, and the water water spreads out over the surface due to gravity (warm water on the west is less dense compared to the cooler warm to the east). The result is the warm abnormality that you see during El Nino years. When the surface is warmer than usual, either heat is released into the atmosphere, or the ocean is absorbing heat at a lower rate. Both of these results in elevated atmospheric temperatures over the surface. Below is a series of graphics depicting the transition (from NASA earth observatory)
  47. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    Eric @14 As a lukewarmer, I must admit that there seems to be some confusion of surface temperature warming with heat energy absorption in the oceans in this post. If ENSO is an internal redistribution of global heat then warmer water and air somewhere must be balanced by cooler water or air somewhere else. The net accumulation of heat in the oceans is listed above as 0.5+/0.1Wm-2 for 6 years down to 1500m depth whereas research quoted by Ari on 24Jan SKS post has this statement from Loeb et al: "We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean." The difference is in the confidence limits which are much larger in the Loeb paper. With this global heat accumulation stored as slightly elevated temperatures in the oceans - then the complex circulations can only move heat deeper if it is given up to cooler water. I would like understand the mechanism of how this heat gets back up into the atmosphere.
  48. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Ms@ 49 can you be specific and tell me which part you disagree with and why. That way I can respond. And do you have a source for seawater expanding from 0C to 4C, when as you acknowledge fresh water doesn't (actually contracts) I have searched all through the website and find lots of articles on SLR, but very little on the zonal tilting or regional differences.In fact zonal tilting got zero hits! As the main article for this forum is about region difference in sea level rise (zonal tilting), that is all I am looking at. If ice sheet melting adds water to the oceans, why will Tuvalu get more rise than the ocean average rise? A simple why? Not interested in the average rise (that's a different topic) just the increase in zonal tilting. Can we please stick to zonal tilting or regional differences and not average rises?
  49. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Michael @44 Its good to discuss and learn, thats the point of forums. There are two types of people; those capable of independent thought, and those that follow what they are told to think and do not question and analyze. We should all strive to be the former through avenues such as forums. I am not claiming sea level will decrease, I believe it will increase. To be clear:- I agree average sea level rise has been about 1.8mm/yr over the last 100 years. I believe Tuvalu has been sinking about 0.5mm/ yr for the last about 50 years. I believe there has been a zonal tilting increase (regional increase if you want) of about 2.6mm/yr over the last 50 years. What I can't find is agreed and validated causes for the zonal tilting or a validated projection for the increase in zonal tiliting until 2100. I have searched references as you suggested but I have missed it or it's not there.  Timmerman actually stated that there is major uncertainty as to the future regional characteristics of sea level rise.  IPCC AR4 (2007) report predicts that sea level rise will be 0.6 – 1.9 feet by the year 2100 You state a central estimate of 16mm/yr for Tuvalu. This would be 4.6 ft over the next 88 years. Meaning that zonal tilting would increase by 2.7 ft to 4.0 ft. I cannot find any science that supports that such a large differential in level across an ocean can exist. I am talking physical sciences. If you have a specific source as to large zonal tilting please let me know.  My specific point is, that we don't know what caused the zonal tilting, so on what reasonable basis can we expect it will continue to increase? As RP stated @43 the future trends for the regional variations are contradictory In fact if you refer to http://www.wamis.org/agm/meetings/rsama08/S304-Shum_Global_Sea_Level_Rise.pdf It shows that the sea level rise in the Tuvalu region was about 1.6 to 1.8 mm/yr for 1900 to 2003. So over that century Tuvalu experienced average sea level rise. As it received higher than average in the second half of the century, then it must have received lower than average for the first half of the century to be average over the whole century. So what caused the lower than average sea level rise in the first half of the century? Is it a cycle? The point is that zonal tilting is poorly understood yet it is the basis for stating that Tuvalu will have high than ocean average sea level rises until 2100. Statements that Tuvalu will experience massive sea level rise over the next 100 years will only drive away investment they critically need. But there is no solid science that Tuvalu will experience higher than average sea level rise. If time proves that Tuvali only experiences average sea level rise, then this will have been a travesty.
    Response:

    [DB] As Michael Sweet has already pointed out to you, it is better to spend time reading up on SLR before speaking so authoritatively about it.  Use the Search function to find many articles here at SkS using much more recent estimates of SLR than contained in the IPCC AR4.

    Projected SLR increases are based on land-based ice sheet losses, primarily from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).  These losses are increasing in greater-than-linear fashion.  Indeed, recent research shows decadal-scale doubling of losses can be expected.

    Thus, solid scientific research in the peer-reviewed literature documents massive sea level rises can be expected by 2100 relative to past rates of SLR.  The travesty is denying this documented research without actually reading it first.

  50. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    The winter thus far in the Northeast (US) Has been 'wimpy'. Also of note the USDA has come up with its new map of climate growing zones- reflecting a warming climate. Gardeners will delight in knowing their gardens have been kicked up a half zone or more. Fig trees in Boston? Yes. Palms along the southern New England coast? Yes. The USDA Map reflects the years 1976-2005- with digital imaging. http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/#

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