Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 1310 1311 1312 1313 1314 1315 1316 1317 1318 1319 1320 1321 1322 1323 1324 1325 Next
Comments 65851 to 65900:
-
Philippe Chantreau at 16:07 PM on 24 January 2012Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions
It's all there but we have to package it nicely for you eh? Radiative transfer laws, fluid dynamics, atmospheric chemistry etc, etc. Patonomics's thought process and sequence of actions is unfortunately all too common. It usually proceeds like this: One comes on this site touting very entrenched ideas on the nature of scientific knowledge and/or the scientific process, all of these ideas being somewhat supeficial, wrong, oversimplified or misguided. From there, one proceeds on to claim that climate science findings are moot unless such or such demand is met. However, when more specific concerns are adressed, the poster reveals that he/she has not done the ground work, but then states he wants others to do it for him. I am not about to do that work, I have enough of my own. In my several years of reading and contributing to SkS, I have seen this, and worse things, happen more times than I can count. If Patonomics considers himself to have the intellectual honesty needed, then he must do his own research. Starting with Spencer Weart, going to Meehl, Trenberth, Iacono and Clough, etc, etc. Last thing Patonomics: You have no authority to dictate reactions to your posts. If this one does please you, move on. I did not write it specifically for you but for any reader who would happen to have an interest in this thread. -
Philippe Chantreau at 15:35 PM on 24 January 2012New research from last week 3/2012
Ari, this weekly review is a fantastic resource. I love it! Keep up the good work. -
Tom Curtis at 14:30 PM on 24 January 2012Monckton Myth #11: Carbon Pricing Costs vs. Benefits
Waldo @48, looking a little closer, Environment Canada estimates the measures will result in a reduction of 175 MtCO2 equivalent over the period 2015 to 2030. That equates to 0.022 ppmv, or 0.012 ppmv after the typical 45% absorption by the deep ocean/biosphere and natural sequestration is accounted for. That is in agreement with Monckton. Monckton estimates the CO2 concentration would rise to 437.676 without the regulations. Therefore, the difference in equilibrium temperature ignoring long term feedbacks as a result of these measures ignoring all else would be ln(437.676/437.664) * 5.35 * (3/3.7) where the last term is the feedback factor for scaling a forcing to temperature. It assumes the IPCC sensitivity for doubled CO2 is of 3 degrees is correct. Ergo, the temperature effect (at equilibrium) is 0.00012 C if only Canada implements measures to reduce CO2 emissions, and this is the only measure Canada implements. This compares to the 0.00007 C reduction calculated by Monckton. The first thing I should note is that clearly I made an error last night, for which I apologize. The difference between my figure and Monktons' figure is just 42% which can be ascribed entirely to the fact that he only estimates the transient climate response. We are, of course, far more interested in the equilibrium climate response. The second thing to note is that Monckton's calculation depends on the assumption that nothing else is done about CO2 emissions. If other measures are taken, the 0.012 ppmv will represent a greater percentage of the atmospheric concentration in 2030, and hence be more effective in reducing temperature. If emissions are halved relative to the A2 scenario, for example, the Canadian measure would be 6% more effective at reducing CO2 emissions. More importantly, we need to see past Monckton's dishonest approach of determining effects based solely on the Canadian contribution, while showing costs for a global application of the scheme. In fact, based on Monckton's own figures we can determine that applied globally, this scheme wold reduce transient climate response in 2030 by 0.35 degrees C. That is 55% of the expected transient climate response for the interval 2011-2030 on the A2 scenario (multi-model mean). That the Canadian measure by itself has limited effect is because Canada has a relatively small population, and correspondingly low absolute emissions. That is not a reason for Canada to do nothing, and this evidently is a cost effective measure proportional to Canada's expected contribution to solving the global problem. (Well, it's half of the expected contribution, in any event.) The question then resolves to cost effectiveness, on which I am no expert, but would trust environment Canada over a self promoting conspiracy theorist any day, even if I did not know Monckton's personal record for honesty and accuracy. -
dana1981 at 13:05 PM on 24 January 2012Monckton Myth #11: Carbon Pricing Costs vs. Benefits
There are a bunch of factual and logical errors in Monckton's piece. There's the Tragedy of the Commons, for starters. That may be the post Tom is referring to. There's the fact that Monckton makes assertions about the costs of the legislation while mostly ignoring its benefits (as discussed in the post above). That's really his main error, as you noted in #46, Waldo. He does cite a bit of literature from Tol and Lomborg, which are basically the only two economists who think the costs of climate inaction will be relatively small. Monckton also makes a claim about CO2 concentrations being doubled in 2100. They'll be doubled decades before that unless we take major action to reduce our emissions, which is exactly what he's opposing in this article. That completely screws up his 'warming by 2100' calculation. What he's actually calculating is the immediate warming when CO2 doubles, which yes, will be somewhere close to 2°C. His claim that this is lower than IPCC values is total BS, it's actually right in the middle of the IPCC range (which is basically 1 to 3°C transient climate sensitivity). His other calculations are equally screwed up. -
Waldo at 12:42 PM on 24 January 2012Monckton Myth #11: Carbon Pricing Costs vs. Benefits
Tom @ 47, Thanks for the reply! I have read Environment Canada's economic impact analysis. It appears to be much more grounded than Monckton's attempt to question it. Monckton tries to scale up the cost to be the cost per 1 deg C avoided. That sounds like a rather naive metric to me. Can you give me more detail on the math showing how Monckton underestimates the temp effect? That would basically blow his other estimates of the cost/benefit of the mitigated CO2 out of the water! -
actually thoughtful at 12:19 PM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
Ale and Dana - thanks to you both - I am getting a handle on it. I understand the 4.2 vs 3.0, and that aerosols were a cooling factor not completely understood in 1988. It seems, in a sense, that Hansen got lucky in that he overestimated sensitivity and ignored aerosols, and those two were of roughly the same magnitude (no disrespect to Hansen about luck - I understand one earns luck through hard work). I will read tomorrow's and see if that doesn't fill in the missing pieces for me. -
muoncounter at 12:17 PM on 24 January 2012Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions
patonomics#54: You asked a virtually identical question on this thread and rejected all replies. Then you stated you couldn't be bothered to do the research. So what is different this time? Consider looking at the fundamental paper by Meehl et al 2004, if it is not too much bother. The late-twentieth-century warming can only be reproduced in the model with anthropogenic forcing (mainly GHGs), while the early twentieth-century warming is mainly caused by natural forcing in the model (mainly solar). However, the signature of globally averaged temperature at any time in the twentieth century is a direct consequence of the sum of the forcings. There follows considerable discussion of principal component analysis. And please do not presume to instruct others whether they can respond to your requests. -
skywatcher at 11:46 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Tom #117, Apparently, according to #104, all the water you and I naively feel as rain, actually is dropped off by passing comets, the water having never evaporated from the ground. This also accounds for sea level rise and so there is nothing to worry about. /sarc -
Tom Curtis at 11:41 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
skywatcher @116, are you suggesting that averaged over time, just as much water falls to the ground as raine (or snow etc) as evaporates. What sort of radical new theory is that. (/sarc) -
skywatcher at 11:39 AM on 24 January 2012Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions
#54 patonomics, in addition to KR's links, if you really want to know how global surface temperature records are constructed, you would do worse than to look at Glenn Tamblyn's 4-part series "On Averages and Anomalies" here at SkS (first post linked). They are an excellent complement to the above post, and will tell you a great deal about how we determine the surface temperature record. And remember, readers here are free to respond to any post they like, so long as they conform with the Comments Policy! -
skywatcher at 11:27 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
And of course whoever originally wrote post #104, that was plagiarised by dana69, also neglected to discuss evaporation: whereupon liquid water absorbs all that extra energy to become the water vapour that is able to release energy. I presume they just forgot... -
dana1981 at 11:18 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
We're also going to address the climate model sensitivity in Part 2 tomorrow. -
Alex C at 10:56 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
actually thoughtful @14: Comparing the Scenario results raw to temperature data isn't exactly the best thing to do because the models are erroneous in two regards. The first doesn't have to do with the models, but instead with the input - too high of assumed future greenhouse gas concentrations, and the lack of aerosol forcing. The net forcing for Scenario B is higher than reality, so the model will predict a higher temperature due to that. The second reason is that the model gives a climate sensitivity of 4.2˚C/2xCO2, which is higher than the accepted mean of 3.0˚C. These issues are better explained in the rebuttal to the "Hansen is wrong" myth. -
Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions
patonomics - "Are there any peer reviewed article there that gives deterministic answer for "How global surface temperature is reconstructed with each worldly known contributory factors and its corresponding weights?"" What you appear to be looking for are attribution studies. I would suggest you read the Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming, as the papers listed there are exactly what you are asking for. You can use those as references regarding forecasting and hindcasting temperatures. In addition you might benefit from looking at Trenberth et al 2009, Earth's global energy budget, which discusses energy flows. "Please only provide pin-point reference matching the need expressed, else refrain responding." - Please avoid the inflammatory tone, lest you simply get ignored. -
Stephen Baines at 10:25 AM on 24 January 2012National (US) Strategy Proposed to Respond to Climate Change’s Impacts on Fish, Wildlife, Plants
My read is like KRs. I think calls to abolish EPA and the endangered species act are largely a means to motivate base and local support, and as leverage. The missions of EPA, National parks and fish and wildlife etc are generally appreciated by most americans at present. Consequently, I don't think they are under threat of extinction...but they could be under threat of serious budget cuts. I hear second hand that such cuts, and the political climate generally, have a demoralizing impact on staff. -
patonomics at 10:08 AM on 24 January 2012Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions
Are there any peer reviewed article there that gives deterministic answer for "How global surface temperature is reconstructed with each worldly known contributory factors and its corresponding weights? In short, I am only looking for temperature defining budget balance statement template, that can be used over the years to clearly test with observed data. Additionally one can also give temperature-flow statement, similar like we have cash-flow statements in accounting and auditing professions. Please only provide pin-point reference matching the need expressed, else refrain responding. -
Stevo at 10:04 AM on 24 January 2012National (US) Strategy Proposed to Respond to Climate Change’s Impacts on Fish, Wildlife, Plants
KR and John, thanks. KR I don't think you have much to worry about regarding your comments. They simply stated what the general policy position of each party is. John, thanks for the link. You've given me some informative reading. -
Tom Curtis at 09:21 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Dana69 @109 appears to not recognize that climate predictions are made with climate models that use (relatively) high resolution grids of the surface. The GISS-HYCOM model, for example, uses a 4 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude grid, thereby dividing the Earth's surface into 3240 cells. The model has 20 layers for the atmosphere, meaning the atmospheric model divides the atmospheric model divides the atmosphere into 64,800 cells in total. Oddly enough, the model does not constrain all cells to maintain the same temperature, a necessary constraint for Dana69's comment to have any relevance. GISS also runs a 2 x 2.5 degree model, which therefore has 12,960 surface cells, if that is not enough resolution for you. Dana69 may feel that dividing the Earth into 12,690 cells does not sufficiently account for regionalization, but that tells us more about Dana69 than climate science. When will the fake skeptics wake up to the fact that pretending climate science is based on a single zero dimensional model, as Dana69 has done, reveal them to be cranks pushing an agenda in no uncertain terms? -
dana1981 at 08:54 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
There's also the question as to whether we should be comparing Hansen's scenarios to the GHG-only forcing or the net forcing. I think there are two different answers, depending on the situation: If you want to evaluate the temperature response (as we'll do in Part 2), then you should look at the net forcing. This is because the model temperature response prediction is based on the total net forcing. It just so happens that the only forcings input into Hansen's model are GHGs (and a couple volcanic eruption simulations). If you want to evaluate whether we're on a 'BAU' path based on my definition in comment #15, then you should compare Hansen's to the GHG-only forcing. This is because Hansen's definition of 'BAU' only included GHGs, not aerosols or land use changes or other forcings. Michaels' definition of BAU also only examines GHGs. That's why I plotted GHG-only as BAU in Figure 2. -
dana1981 at 08:50 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
actually thoughtful @14 - Scenario C was closest to reality in 1998. Currently, Scenario B is closest to reality. Scenario B is arguably closest to 'business as usual', depending on how you define the term. My definition of BAU is continuing with the same rate of emissions as in previous years. The BAU dashed line in Figure 2 is extrapolates the 1978-1988 emissions rate forward (in other words, if emissions after 1988 continued to rise at the same rate as they had from 1978-1988). See the figure caption. -
Phila at 08:47 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Note how he just blithely ignores the peer-reviewed scientific papers that prove him wrong? No apologies, no concession that he doesn't know what he is on about, he just repeats a falsehood as if the evidence doesn't exist. If memory serves, Pirate also believes in "adaptation" to AGW. It seems clear that effective adaptation would require accurate risk assessment (to say nothing of presenting accurate info to young students, who'll be doing more adapting than the average middle-aged teacher). And yet, accuracy is something Pirate has ignored or resisted at virtually every turn. I wonder why that is? -
actually thoughtful at 08:41 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
Dana I find the two figures confusing. It looks like actual 88-98 were below Scenario C projects. Yet we often say Hansen B is the closet to reality. And the 2nd figure doesn't seem to have all the data points that Hansen used (is that true or false?) In other words, is Skeie GHG only what Hansen was counting? (which would support B) Whose definition of GHG BAU are you counting (the one that tracks Scenario B exactly?) That seems counter to Hansen's own claim that Scenario A was BAU (although I understand the "BAU" that Hansen was responding to was a geometric increase just prior to his paper coming out). thanks to anyone who can shed light on this -
Stephen Baines at 08:38 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Rob Agreed totally. It does suggest that we move away from the species by species approach to assessing the effects of climate change on biodivrsity and think more about the problem from an epidemiological point of view, as John has, to his credit. Everything we know about past episodes of climate change suggests that we are looking at the potential for very significant loss of biodiversity in the short to medium run if temperature changes as much as predicted. It's just hard to predict which species exactly. For sure the rare, the isolated endemics and the poor dispersers are particularly prone. However, the knock on effects of such changes for other more common species, or for societies that depend in various ways on services provided by specific natural ecosystems is uncertain - in a scary way. The general thinking is that less diverse ecosystems will become more brittle and more susceptible to large state swings. -
actually thoughtful at 08:31 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
Those who cling to the common meaning of BAU (Michaels and all his apologists) are obviously wrong. If Hansen had merely said Scenario A is BAU - and not then defined exactly what he meant by BAU - then you would have a point. But Hansen precisely defined each scenario, so the phrase/abbreviation "BAU" has no meaning whatsoever, unless it is exactly the definition Hansen provided in his paper (when evaluating his paper, not in the world at large) Another researcher, or even Michaels, is allowed to define BAU as they see fit - but no one can apply their own personal definition of BAU to Hansen's work and retain any credibility. Only Hansen's definition of BAU is valid for evaluating Hansen' work. And by Hansen's definition, we are not in BAU. That whole line of arguing is ridiculous - read any contract and you will find language which states, in the vernacular - "section headings do not supersede the precise language in each section." This is some sort of appeal to common usage which doesn't qualify as a logical error - it is just wrong - by any logical system you chose to apply. At best it is a strawman. At worst it is worthy of charges. -
John Hartz at 08:29 AM on 24 January 2012Renewables can't provide baseload power
Suggested reading: “Obstacles to Danish Wind Power” by James Kanter, New York Times, Jan 22, 2012 Click here to access this timely and informative article. -
actually thoughtful at 08:16 AM on 24 January 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #1
Tom Curtis I echo my gratitude to all the people you mentioned by name, and I will also point out that your contributions to the comment threads have been fantastic - I really enjoy what you have to say, and how you say it, and you have certainly earned the trust and respect your contributions receive. And I repeat my offer to contribute time ($$ not being a possibility). -
Rob Painting at 08:08 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Sphaerica @32 - as we have repeatedly observed facts don't alter a fake-skeptics mindset, because it is based upon a set of preconceived notions, not scientific evidence. We have seen this affliction repeatedly with Pirate. Note how he just blithely ignores the peer-reviewed scientific papers that prove him wrong? No apologies, no concession that he doesn't know what he is on about, he just repeats a falsehood as if the evidence doesn't exist. Stephen Baines - the smoking and cancer analogy is particularly apt. How many people deny smoking causes cancer? Climate skeptic Fred Singer was one, but I don't know if he's changed his tune of that yet. And essentially what I wrote in comment @10 was that humans cause extinctions in multiple ways, so yes it is hard to disentangle the effects of global warming alone - no serious 'warmist' disputes this. But given that the same bloody-minded pursuit of money by the worlds rich is also causing increased fossil fuel extraction & combustion, and the other damaging perturbations to the environment, it's all the more reason to 'about-turn' current practices. -
Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
DSL - Given that Dana69 has copied posts from two different authors (assuming that cohenite doesn't also post as Dave McK), I would suspect that it's not cohenite under another handle. DNFTT -
DSL at 07:59 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Fascinating stuff, IanC. So either Dana69 is cohenite (aka Anthony Cox), or Dana69 is an intentional plagiarist. If Dana69 = Cox, your puzzlement, KR, is resolved. Cox has a vested interest in maintaining a specific position re climate. Until he can demonstrate an ability to accept his own error (learn), his posts can be considered nothing but trolling. If Dana69 is not Cox and is a plagiarist, then Dana69's ability to express his/her actual understanding is suspect, and further dialogue is probably (but not certainly) a waste of time (since one never knows who one is actually engaging in dialogue with -- a pastiche or the original brain). All of this is obvious, but it's worth pointing out to anyone tempted to respond to Dana69 (until such a time as Dana69 addresses the issue, of course). -
Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
IanC - That's absolutely fascinating... Dana69 - Perhaps you could either offer your own opinion, or clearly link and credit to issues you feel important, rather than plagiarizing other folks words? I'm getting the distinct impression of a troll, rather than someone who holds their own views on the subject. -
IanC at 07:38 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
KR, They are perhaps puzzling since both #109 and #104 are copied and pasted from comments on science of doom. #109 is posted under user cohenite while #104 is posted under Dave McK, appearing again at WUWT -
Stephen Baines at 07:36 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
As a card carrying ecologist, I feel like I should step in here. There are lots of cases where climate change may be playing a role in species extinction, especially for species endemic to mountains, islands and isolated habitats, or species dependent on such habitats at key points in their life history. However, just as is the case for cancer and cigarette smoking, it is often very hard to pinpoint climate warming as the sole culprit in any one case specifically. There are so many contingencies at play. Moreover, especially at this early stage of global change, climate is usually one of several contributing factors. As with extreme climate events, it shifts the balance of probabilities. Finally, even when it is a major factor, it may act through intermediary processes that cloak the effect of climate. Temperature related stress can make species very susceptible to microbial or parasite infestations. Such has been suggested for the chytrid impacts on frogs. -
william5331 at 07:22 AM on 24 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
The lack of a methane spike in ice cores might not be all that mysterious. Methane in the atmosphere has a half life of around 7 years due to its combination with oxygen. Even if there is a huge outgassing of methane, a bubble of air trapped in ice is mostly Oxygen with a little methane. In addition, the top 50 to 100 m of a forming ice sheet is still connected to the atmosphere by diffusion which will provide more oxygen and blur the sharpness of any sudden production of carbon rich gas. A huge outpouring of methane should show up in ice cores as a Carbon dioxide spike as is seen at the beginning of each interglacial. http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2011/08/end-of-ice-ages.html -
Bob Lacatena at 07:19 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate, Are the examples of extinctions that Rob Painting gave you in comment #20 insufficient? -
Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Dana69 - Variations in surface temperature will increase the energy radiated, and Trenberth 2009 discusses that. Their estimates of 396 W/m^2 are an increase from the 390 W/m^2 stated in the earlier version of the paper for that very reason. "...regionalised variation which defeats any averaging..." - This is an issue recognized by folks in the field, where temperature variations are taken into consideration. Certainly not a "gotcha" moment, wherein it turns out that all of the science is wrong due to an overlooked variable... As I recall, you were involved in a discussion of CO2 and radiation over at the CO2 is just a trace gas thread. You demonstrated some understanding of the issues there, which makes your current comments puzzling. -
Phila at 06:19 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate: The NCSE statement you quote at #23 explains that scientists believe that climate is changing "rapidly and significantly," and notes that we are seeing changes consistent with that scenario, "including...extinction of plant and animal species." As a teacher, surely you're aware that the term "extinction" can refer to the process of population decline, as well as to the actual disappearance of a species? In case you don't, please note Merriam-Webster's definitions: 1. The act of making extinct or causing to be extinguished; 2. The condition or fact of being extinct or extinguished. Your attitude confuses me. You seem to realize that rapid environmental changes are stressors that can cause populations to decline, and also to understand that current warming constitutes a rapid environmental change. You certainly know that migration, breeding, food and habitat are temperature-sensitive for many species. Presumably, you also understand the importance of biodiversity and the role of keystone species. If you understand all this, why then do you go so far out of your way to misread and misrepresent this NCSE statement? Your claim that the NCSE is "simply incorrect" on this point strikes me as utterly frivolous, if not disingenuous. -
Dana69 at 05:38 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Any increase in backradiation’s contribution to warming would still be subject to the defect of GMST; that is (A + B)^4 > A^4 + B^4 which shows that backradiation, like all Stefan-Boltzman effects, is subject to regionalised variation which defeats any averaging that AGW relies on as a metric.Moderator Response: [JH] "Dana69" is not an SkS author. -
owl905 at 05:27 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
@Tom Curtis - no one misrepresented your statements. My reading skills are fine. You just plain got wrong. And your ad homenem response makes a good bookend for your word-jumble to invent Hansen's response and "worst case" label. -
Paul D at 05:26 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Actually I think invasive species causing extinctions as a result of global warming is a very big issue. -
Paul D at 05:21 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate'The Golden Toad' is assumed to be extinct partly due to global warming and its restricted range. http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/3172/0 Species migration is likely to be a big factor and invasive species may wipe out native species as time goes by. I think your question is a problem because you haven't defined the range or any parameters for which you define an extinction by global warming. -
ClimateWatcher at 04:44 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
#15 Rapid environmental changes are stressors on organisms. Can you elaborate on climate change as an environmental change in the context of diurnal change, seasonal change, and 'weather' change? All of those changes are larger in extent and very much more rapid than climate change. Also, evolution for most species has encountered numerous glacial/stadial cycles. Why would one expect selection to leave species which were vulnerable to such changes when past populations endured them?Moderator Response: Your question is addressed here. Please take further discussion to the appropriate thread. -
muoncounter at 04:16 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
pirate#23: "the next part I teach is that while climate change is not the cause of the chytrid amphibian issues" Are you also informing your classes that what you are teaching goes counter to the research? What do you say if a student points to Pounds et al 2006? Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. I suppose you can debate the difference between 'a key factor' and 'the cause of,' but that misses the point entirely. -
Alex C at 03:48 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
It seems to me that the failure on Hansen's part (if it can be called a failure) to accurately define BAU is unrelated to the performance of the models. The name "business as usual" is only useful from a mitigation and prevention POV, i.e. politics, not from a predictive point of view. If we followed Scenario C closer than the others forcing-wise, then showing Scenario A (especially A) is misleading, to put it benignly. What more too, as has been shown in several previous posts, Hansen's model gave a climate sensitivity higher than the 3˚C accepted mean (4.2˚C). The model results are actually very good predictors. -
Philippe Chantreau at 03:42 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Rob the volcanoes found on Venus are not of the type associated with plate movements. The front running theory on the planet's geology is that of periodic volcanic resurfacing, no plate tectonics. Although no active volcano has been observed, evidence of volcanic activity is everywhere to be seen on the surface. -
Tom Curtis at 03:41 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
dana1981 @9, for me BAU means the foreseeable future development with no policies instituted to combat global warming. That may be consistent with with sharp reductions of greenhouse gas emissions if we could reasonably foresee, eg, peak oil resulting in a massive decline on fossil fuel consumption (although that consequence of peak oil, if real, is unfortunately unlikely). I can certainly see a case for calling continue current emission rates (scenario B), or continued current growth in emission rates (scenario A) as BAU. -
Tristan at 03:36 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Climate Change appears to be increasing the likelihood of extreme weather. Can we attribute any single instance of extreme weather to Climate Change? No. Climate Change loads the dice such that extreme events are more likely. Many of the impacts of Climate Change have the capacity to exert pressure on certain populations of flora and fauna. Does that mean we can look at a given extinction and determine whether it can be attributed to Climate Change or not? It will very rarely be clear cut. We can infer though, that the existence of Climate Change loads the extinction dice as well. Whether or not we can attribute particular extinctions to Climate Change is mostly immaterial. -
funglestrumpet at 03:31 AM on 24 January 2012How do Climate Models Work?
Moderator (Muoncounter) @ my last post (numbers still all being ‘1’ at the time of writing) Thanks for redirecting me to a thread that appears to have died in September of 2010. May it rest in peace. Goes to show just how big the picture is considered to be. While I can accept that ‘barry’ @ 19 has a point, it is difficult to agree that there is not a political bias at an institutional level in this site when all those in the section that includes ‘Monckton Myths’ are members of the denialati. If there really were no political bias, it would also include, say, ‘GreenPeace Goolies’ for they and others like them have in their time produced misinformation as outrageous as any myths promulgated by his lordship and his mates. Having said that, I will try to adhere to the house rules, but would appreciate something a bit more relevant to the urgency of the situation than a long dead forum venue.Response:[DB] "a long dead forum venue"
There are no "dead" or closed comment threads at SkS. All 4,700+ threads are open and available for placing comments on. The vast majority may be currently dormant, but since regular participants in the forum closely follow the Recent Comments thread, it is a rare posting that fails to get a response by someone.
As for the other bits you raise, playing "whack-a-myth" is a time-consuming and labor-intensive process. Feel free to develop your own examination of Greenpeace "and others like them" and their supposed misinformation and submit it for consideration as a guest-posting here (provided it conforms with the Comments Policy and falls within the aegis of the mission statement of this site).
-
tmac57 at 03:13 AM on 24 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate-I disagree with the one statement that extinctions from climate change have already occurred "right now".
The NCSE statement is simply incorrect.
These two sentences tell a lot about your mindset.You aren't saying that you have doubts/questions about whether or not it is true,you are sure that it is not true.Right? -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:11 AM on 24 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
pbjamm.... Okay, that was just a little too close to real. (@73) You can't imagine how many times I've read virtually those exact statements online, only with no sarcasm. -
pbjamm at 03:06 AM on 24 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Don't you see? SkS has failed to provide a summary of all the research/measurements/math/physics/and theory in one paragraph. Since you are unable or unwilling to do so you must be hiding something behind all that complicated math and all those long boring papers. Now that his inconvenient and probing questions have made the AGW Team uncomfortable he has been silenced! The only logical conclusion is that he has gotten too close to uncovering the Man Behind the Curtain. /sarcasm
Prev 1310 1311 1312 1313 1314 1315 1316 1317 1318 1319 1320 1321 1322 1323 1324 1325 Next
